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Sunday 1/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
NFL (307) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS (308) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Take: over
Reason: NFC Divisional playoffs have a pair of South division foes facing off for the third time this year as the 12-5 Buccaneers take on the 13-4 Saints from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints had their way with the Bucs in both previous games this year. the New Orleans defense has been amazing. Last week they kept the Bears out of the endzone the entire game except a late score with no time left on the clock. The Saints won in week one, 34-23 and then again in November 38-3. The Bucs appear to be at their best this time, so it won't be as easy. Alvin Kamira set a record with 6 TD's a few weeks ago, WR Michael Thomas is finally coming around after missing early in the season and QB Drew Brees isn't ready to retire just yet. The Saints have won five straight and look for their sixth here today. Really the Bucs have been embarrassed of late in this series. I expect a better showing by the Bucs here today. However, they have not solved the Saints offense and I fully expect Brees and company to put up their share of points. Your free play is on the OVER.
No strangers to one another, Tampa Bay and New Orleans who happen to be division-rivals in the NFC South will tee it up for the third time this year today at the Superdome and I will play this one to land Over the total.
The teams played on the very first weekend of the regular season in New Orleans in a 34-23 Saints win in a game that landed Over the total. Their second meeting in Tampa on November 8th resulted in a 38-3 Saints win that held Under the total, but with Tom Brady in fine form right now, I highly doubt the Saints hold the Buccaneers to just a field goal today.
For the record, 6 of the last 9 in this series have played Over the total and I say today that mark moves to 7-3 Over.
Tampa Bay just landed Over in their 31-23 Wild Card win at Washington last weekend, and come into this game with Overs played in 3 of their last 4 and are 10-7 Over for the year.
New Orleans was able to bottle up Chicago last week and held them to just a field goal until the very last play of the game which went for a TD in a 21-9 win that held Under the total. So after 3 straight Saints Overs, the Under has cashed in in the last pair of New Orleans games, but for the year the Saints are also 10-7 Over the total.
Throw in a 10-1 Over for Tampa Bay their last 11 games played against the NFC South and a 19-7 Over mark their last 26 games overall when facing NFC teams and the ingredients are there for this game to be a classic Brady-Brees shootout that lands Over the total.
I like the points to add up in this last game of the playoff weekend from the Big Easy, where the scoring will be big and easy!
541PHILADELPHIA -542 OKLAHOMA CITY
PHILADELPHIA is 33-18 ATS (13.2 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.
543UTAH -544 DENVER
UTAH is 25-10 ATS (14 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% since 1996.
545NEW ORLEANS -546 SACRAMENTO
NEW ORLEANS are 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 4 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.
547INDIANA -548 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 55-35 ATS (16.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.
New York @ Boston
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New York's last 10 games
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago @ Dallas
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia @ Oklahoma City
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games when playing Philadelphia
Oklahoma City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Utah @ Denver
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
New Orleans @ Sacramento
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games at home
Indiana @ LA Clippers
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 8 games when playing at home against Indiana
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
WASHINGTON (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 1/17/2021, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-19 ATS (-14.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-28 ATS (-19.6 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-3 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-3-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.7 Units)
CHICAGO (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at FLORIDA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 1/17/2021, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.7 Units)
Washington @ Pittsburgh
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home
Chicago @ Florida
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing on the road against Florida
Chicago is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Florida
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Florida's last 11 games when playing at home against Chicago
Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Can you imagine the Kansas City Chiefs spotting the Cleveland Browns 28 points, like the Pittsburgh Steelers did last week in the Super Wild Card round?
I don't see it happening, but I do see the Browns scoring at least that much against a Kansas City defense that has had lapses more times than not this season, mainly because coach Andy Reid has the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Pat Mahomes, and one of the best offensive units in football.
It's important to believe in Cleveland today, whether you like the underdog price. I don't have an opinion on the side, but I do have hope against a Kansas City team that hasn't won a game by more than six points since Week 8, on Nov. 1. If the pattern holds true, this one runs high, with the Browns pushing the tempo and challenging for the outright win.
I'm very big on the phrase "control the clock" when talking about a run-happy team like Cleveland, but that narrative doesn't fit in this game. If the Browns want to win, they need to score touchdowns. They need to be active vertically on first and second downs, they need to be aggressive on fourth downs, and they need to convert in the red zone. We may also see some risks on special teams.
Cleveland will be good for around 28 points, and that gets us halfway there.
Then there's Mahomes, doing his part, off a bye, and firing against a Cleveland secondary that ranked 22nd in allowing 3,962 yards passing and 25th in giving up 31 touchdowns through the air. Teams are scoring on 43% of their drives against Cleveland's defense, 13th-highest in the league.
Think about this, once the Browns opened up a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week, Pittsburgh outscored Cleveland, 37-20.
If the Steelers can put up 37 points in a loss, what will the defending champion Chiefs do en route to the AFC Championship?
Iowa @ Northwestern
Iowa (11-2, 5-1)
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Tempo: #68
— Experience: #210
— Continuity: #49
— Iowa won its last four games, scoring 84.8 ppg.
— Hawkeyes gave up 102-99 points in only two losses.
— Four of their five Big 14 wins are by 15+ points.
Northwestern (6-5, 3-4)
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Tempo: #124
— Experience: #260
— Continuity: #51
— Northwestern lost its last four games, after a 6-1 start.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Wildcats gave up 83.5 ppg in their last four games.
— Northwestern is 6-0 when it allows 70 or fewer points.
— Iowa made 11-26 on arc, beat Northwestern 87-72 at home Dec 29th.
— Hawkeyes won last five series games.
— Iowa won last two visits to Evanston, by 10-13 points.
Penn State @ Purdue
Penn State (3-4, 0-3)
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #229
— Experience: #45
— Continuity: #45
— Penn State hasn’t played since December 30
— 3 of their 4 losses were by 4 or fewer points, or in OT.
— Penn State lost first three league games, giving up 82.3 ppg.
Purdue (9-5, 4-3)
— ranked #27 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #328
— Continuity: #131
— Purdue won both its Big 14 home games, by 7-3 points (0-1-1 ATS)
— Boilers beat Michigan State, Indiana in last two games.
— Purdue is shooting 37.4% on arc (#47)
— Purdue won nine of last ten series games.
— Penn State won 88-76 here LY, snapping a 12-game skid at Mackey.
Northeastern @ Charleston
Northeastern (6-5, 5-0)
— ranked #150 by KenPom
— Tempo: #262
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #220
— Huskies won last five games, after a 1-5 start.
— Northeastern has CAA road wins, by 3-5 points.
— Huskies outscored Charleston 10-2 over final 2:34 of yesterday’s 67-62 win.
Charleston (5-7, 3-2)
— ranked #210 by KenPom
— Tempo: #343
— Experience: #95
— Continuity: #245
— Charleston won three of its last four games.
— All five of their CAA games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Charleston is 2-6 vs teams ranked in top 200.
— Northeastern won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.
Hofstra @ Delaware
Hofstra (6-6, 2-3)
— ranked #175 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #194
— Continuity: #85
— Hofstra lost last three games, scoring 56-56 in last two.
— Pride is 2-4 in true road games, winning at Richmond/Monmouth.
— Hofstra played 4 starters 36:00+ in Friday’s 74-56 loss here (#340 bench minutes)
Delaware (4-5, 2-2)
— ranked #249 by KenPom
— Tempo: #275
— Experience: #195
— Continuity: #189
— Delaware scored 62 or fewer points in losses, 68+ points in wins.
— Blue Hens lost two of three games to top 200 teams.
— Delaware is shooting 29.4% on the arc (#294).
— Hofstra won 7 of last 9 series games, but lost by 18 here Friday.
— Hofstra won six of its last seven games here.
Western Kentucky @ Marshall
Western Kentucky (10-4, 3-2)
— ranked #87 by KenPom
— Tempo: #168
— Experience: #57
— Continuity: #88
— WKU split its last four games, after an 8-2 start.
— WKU outscored Marshall 19-2 on foul line in Friday’s 81-73 home win.
— Hilltoppers won four of their six top 100 games.
Marshall (7-3, 1-2)
— ranked #82 by KenPom
— Tempo: #26
— Experience: #91
— Continuity: #4
— Marshall is shooting 55.4% inside arc (#33)
— This is their first home game since December 22.
— Marshall is 1-2 in top 100 games, beating #85 Wright State.
— WKU won last four series games, by 9-9-7-8 points.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.
Central Florida @ Houston
Central Florida (3-4, 1-3)
— ranked #96 by KenPom
— Tempo: #274
— Experience: #257
— Continuity: #271
— UCF is 1-3 on the road, but they won at Florida State.
— Knights lost last three games, scoring 56.7 ppg.
— UCF is shooting only 43% inside arc (#326)
Houston (10-1, 5-1)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #313
— Experience: #174
— Continuity: #117
— Houston hasn’t played in eight days.
— Cougars’ only loss was by a point at Tulsa.
— Houston is grabbing 40.4% of its own missed shots (#3).
— Houston won 63-54 at UCF December 26 (25-25 at half)
— Cougars won five of last six series games.
— UCF won two of its last three visits here.
Memphis @ Tulsa
Memphis (6-4, 2-1)
— ranked #68 by KenPom
— Tempo: #35
— Experience: #329
— Continuity: #56
— Memphis hasn’t played in 19 days.
— Tigers have #282 eFG% in country (#254 inside arc, #271 on arc)
— Memphis is forcing turnovers 22.8% of time (#32).
Tulsa (7-4, 4-2)
— ranked #73 by KenPom
— Tempo: #78
— Experience: #345
— Continuity: #312
— Tulsa won six of last seven games, after a 1-3 start.
— Tulsa is 4-2 in AAC, with both losses to Wichita State.
— Golden Hurricane has #18 eFG% defense in country.
— Tulsa won 56-49 at Memphis December 21, forcing 20 turnovers (+9).
— Golden Hurricane won four of last six series games.
— Memphis lost last four visits here, by 10-13-16-40 points.
Fresno State @ Nevada
Fresno State (5-4, 3-4)
— ranked #172 by KenPom
— Tempo: #306
— Experience: #296
— Continuity: #306
— Fresno lost its three top 200 games, by 22-22-16 points.
— Bulldogs are shooting 28.7% on arc (#308), 60.6% on line (#336)
— The three top 200 losses are their only true road games.
Nevada (9-5, 4-3)
— ranked #109 by KenPom
— Tempo: #117
— Experience: #335
— Continuity: #297
— Nevada’s last three losses are by total of 9 points.
— Wolf Pack has #62 eFG% defense in country.
— Nevada made 10-23 3’s in Friday’s 73-57 win over Fresno here.
— Nevada won last seven series games.
— Bulldogs lost their last six visits to Reno.
Evansville @ Bradley
Evansville (6-7, 4-3)
— ranked #256 by KenPom
— Tempo: #356
— Experience: #44
— Continuity: #230
— Evansville is 3-0 ATS as a Valley road underdog this year.
— Purple Aces are shooting 37.9% on arc (#35)- they were 14-34 on arc in yesterday’s 69-60 loss here.
— 53.6% of Evansville’s shots come behind the arc (#2).
Bradley (8-4, 2-1)
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Tempo: #300
— Experience: #204
— Continuity: #191
— Opponents are shooting 38.5% on arc (#312), 38.7% inside arc (#1).
— Braves are 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
— Bradley shot 72.7% inside arc in yesterday’s win.
— Bradley won last six series games.
— Purple Aces lost last five games in Peoria.
Indiana State @ Illinois State
Indiana State (5-7, 2-5)
— ranked #152 by KenPom
— Tempo: #139
— Experience: #149
— Continuity: #76
— Sycamores are 0-4 in Valley if they score fewer than 73 points.
— Indiana State has #265 eFG% in country, shooting 44.4% inside arc (#301)
— Yesterday’s 73-65 win here was their first win in five road games.
Illinois State (4-7, 1-4)
— ranked #258 by KenPom
— Tempo: #74
— Experience: #332
— Continuity: #264
— Redbirds scored only 57 ppg in their four Valley losses.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Illinois State is 0-6 in top 200 games.
— Yesterday, Indiana State was 22-24 on line, Redbirds 10-17.
— Indiana State won three of last four series games.
— Sycamores lost five of their last six games in Normal.
Dayton @ George Washington
Dayton (7-3, 3-2)
— ranked #76 by KenPom
— Tempo: #312
— Experience: #68
— Continuity: #199
— Dayton split its two road games, losing at Fordham, winning at Davidson.
— Flyers have #14 eFG% in country.
— Dayton is turning ball over 23.1% of time (#317)
George Washington (3-8, 2-2)
— ranked #203 by KenPom
— Tempo: #85
— Experience: #281
— Continuity: #239
— Colonials lost two of their three A-14 home games.
— To this point, GW has played schedule #262.
— GW is turning ball over 21.1% of time (#257).
— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Dayton lost three of its last four visits here.
Northern Iowa @ Loyola, Chi
Northern Iowa (3-9, 2-5)
— ranked #132 by KenPom
— Tempo: #73
— Experience: #278
— Continuity: #171
— UNI is 0-3 on Valley road, losing by 4-6-15 points.
— Panthers lost nine of their 11 D-I games.
— UNI was outscored 44-28 in 2nd half of yesterday’s 72-57 loss here.
Loyola, Chi (9-3, 4-1)
— ranked #43 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #41
— Continuity: #13
— Ramblers won five of their last six games.
— Loyola is 3-0 at home in Valley, winning by 30-31-15 points.
— Loyola trailed by 6 with 14:32 left yesterday, but won by 15.
— Loyola won seven of last eight series games.
— Panthers lost their last five games at Loyola.
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
Virginia Tech (10-2, 4-1)
— ranked #32 by KenPom
— Tempo: #266
— Experience: #223
— Continuity: #106
— Tech’s two losses are to top 50 teams (Penn St/Louisville).
— 73-71 loss at Louisville was their only true road game so far.
— Hokies are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Wake Forest (3-4, 0-4)
— ranked #128 by KenPom
— Tempo: #176
— Experience: #152
— Continuity: #274
— Wake lost its four ACC games, scoring 62 ppg.
— Deacons’ two D-I wins are over teams #352/#301
— Opponents are shooting 56.3% inside the arc (#326).
— Tech won four in row, seven of last eight series games.
— Hokies won last three visits to Winston Salem.
NEW YORK (5 - 8) at BOSTON (8 - 3) - 1/17/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 57-39 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO (4 - 8) at DALLAS (6 - 5) - 1/17/2021, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 368-310 ATS (+27.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA (9 - 5) at OKLAHOMA CITY (6 - 6) - 1/17/2021, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 79-60 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (8 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 6) - 1/17/2021, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 8-6 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS (4 - 7) at SACRAMENTO (5 - 8) - 1/17/2021, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA (8 - 4) at LA CLIPPERS (9 - 4) - 1/17/2021, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 74-52 ATS (+16.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 2-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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