Thursday 1/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: Qingdao at Shanxi Loongs
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 7AM EST
Play: Away +7.0 (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (207961) Besiktas at (207962) Fatih Karagumruk
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 8AM EST
Play: Total Under 2.5 (+115)
Good value on the Under here as Besiktas take on Karagumruk in Thursday's early kick off over in the Turkish Super Lig.
Besiktas have one of the best defenses in the league this season, ranking 4th overall, but on the road they've been poor, giving up 1.89 goals per game.
However, over their last three starts, they've really turned a corner, registering two clean sheets from their last three road games, and we think they can limit Karagumruk here on Thursday.
Karagumruk have allowed just 8 goals at home all season, 3rd best in the league, as they like to play in their own half and create counter attacking opportunities. But against this possession based football of Besiktas, 2nd highest in the league at 56.8%, that counter attacking threat will few and far between and we can see this game being decided by a goal by either team.
Take the Under on Thursday between Besiktas and Fatih Karagumruk.
PLAY: UNDER 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Adam Hadwin vs Aaron Wise
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 1PM EST
Play: Adam Hadwin (+100)
The American Express
Tournament Matchup
I’m scratching my head as to why Wise is actually favored here and we can get even money on Hadwin. Hadwin did limp into the holiday break missing three straight cuts, but looking at a longer body of work, he was very solid since the PGA Tour restart in June. He had made 13 of 14 cuts in his starts before those three missed cuts to end the season which I’m not too worried about now as he is fully rested here for his first start of the season.
Compare that to Wise who was much more inconsistent since the restart. Wise missed the cut in more than half of the events he played in, 8 of 14 missed cuts although he did end with a bang finishing solo 2nd at Mayakoba in the last official event before the holiday break, but that was certainly an anomaly to his long term play.
Statistically, Wise surprisingly finished 3rd on Tour in 2020 in Greens in Regulation, yet finished 89th in Strokes Gained Approach, he best Strokes Gained statistical category. That just means although he was hitting greens, he wasn’t hitting them within a decent proximity to capitalize and add in his 171st ranking in putting, he was 3-putting much too often, ranking 193rd on Tour.
Hadwin was solid in many facets of his game ranking inside the Top 60 in Strokes Gained Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green and Overall, while falling just outside of that at #66 SG Putting.
But the biggest reason I love Hadwin this week is his history at PGA West. He did not play here last year due to the birth of his child, but in the four years prior he finished T2, T3, 2nd and T6. There is no doubt he will be full of confidence coming in here and is a true horse for the course play this week.
TAKE ADAM HADWIN OVER AARON WISE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: The American Express Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 5PM EST
Play: Sprinkle on Redman, McCarthy & Schenk
Sony Open
This field is very top heavy with about 12-15 guys all favored in the under 35-1 range, then it falls off very quickly and you can get a ton of value on guys that have been playing very well over the last few months and haven’t quite broken through but are certainly due.
Doc Redman is a guy I like this week, no official PGA Tour win yet, but two top 5’s already this season in six starts. He will breakthru for a win sooner or later. He is available at 110/1 at Draftkings which is insane or 12/1 for a Top 10. For Daily fantasy players, He is available for just $7,500 also at DraftKings.
Denny McCarthy is another name who was up in the 40-1 range and is a crazy 200/1 at DraftKings right now or 18/1 for a Top 10. He also has two Top 5’s already this season and he led the PGA Tour in putting each of the last two seasons. As long as he putts like normal, all he has to do is just be average tee to green and he will be in the mix on Sunday. For daily fantasy he is even more of a steal at just $6,900.
Last guy I’ll throw out there is Adam Schenk. Schenk made 11 straight cuts to end last year and carry over into this season. He did miss the cut last week at the Sony Open but at 240/1 well worthy of a couple bucks this week. I like him for a Top 20 at 7/1 this week. For daily fantasy and the importance of making the cut, $6,700 is worthy of a roster spot.
My recommendation for this week is to take your normal 3% stake and split it up to 1% for each guy and then 80% on the Top 10 or Top 20 market and 20% on the Outright. If any one of them cashes, we will have a nice payday!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (3) Philadelphia Flyers at (4) Boston Bruins
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Boston Bruins -135
NHL - Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins
Quick Synopsis: The Bruins come off back to back losses and will play their home opener on Thursday and will face a Flyers team who despite splitting a 2 game set with the Sabres were outplayed in both. Halak should get the start for the Bruins in the first of two against these Flyers and his splits not only at home (2.34 GAA .920 SV%) but against the Flyers (10-6-3) are positive while a struggling Hart should start for the Flyers and his road slips haven't been great thus far in a short career (9-14-1, 3.31 GAA) We'll look for the Bruins to get back into the win column here.
The play is Boston Bruins -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Event: (523) Los Angeles Lakers at (524) Milwaukee Bucks
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -115
The Los Angeles Lakers (11-4, first in the Western Conference) haven't won a game on Martin Luther King Day in years. Some days, for some players and organizations, are a day that should not have work scheduled. Martin Luther King Day is that 24 hour period for the Lakers. LA travels for a Thursday night for the early NBA on TNT feature to Wisconsin to square off against the Milwaukee Bucks (9-5, second in the Eastern Conference).
The Lakers will enter the center circle riding a seven-game road winning streak. The successful run of wins in the role of visitor for LA will have to overcome Milwaukees 6-1 mark at home this 2020-21 season.
Milwaukee and reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the Lakers' toughest road test this young season and, by my measure, will end LA's perfect 7-0 road mark.
Take the Bucks in a home game in which you are not required to lay points. It will be the only time you can get The Greek Freak on home wood without a significant handicap or money-line following closely behind.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS -115 (money-line)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (767) Southern Utah at (768) Weber State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 21, 2021 9PM EST
Play: Total Under 153.5 (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 8	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10) Wagers
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 4:20P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. FORTY TWO ACE is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * A LONGLONGTIMEAGO: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). ROGUE LEADER: A first time starter with a train er that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. REGGAE MUSIC MAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the hi ghest TrackMaster Power Rating. BIG BROWN SHOES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	A LONGLONGTIMEAGO	9/2	9/2
6	ROGUE LEADER	20/1	5/1
1	REGGAE MUSIC MAN	3/1	7/1
5	BIG BROWN SHOES	7/2	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	VODKA LEMONADE	9	6/1	Front-runner	84	76	92.9	73.9	66.9
5	BIG BROWN SHOES	5	7/2	Front-runner	88	77	72.0	73.0	70.0
8	ONE WHIRLWIND RIDE	8	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	62.6	56.9	46.9
4	FORTY TWO ACE	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	74	67.4	64.4	57.4
1	REGGAE MUSIC MAN	1	3/1	Trailer	87	80	44.6	75.8	73.3

Unknown Running Style: TACO BEAN (12/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Castro L A - Trainer: Kelly Patrick J], FORGOTTEN MISSION (15/1) [Jockey: Maragh Romero Ramsay - Trainer: Toscano Jr John T], ROGUE LEADER (20/1) [Jockey: Mccarthy Trevor - Trainer: Abreu Jor

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.20 Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot (Races 4-5-6-7-8-9)
Claiming $3,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 1:54P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 21 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SOUGHT MORE PEP is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOVE OF ART (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. SOUGHT MORE PEP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BOLD REY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the high est TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	LOVE OF ART (IRE)	2/1	3/1
3	SOUGHT MORE PEP	5/1	7/2
1	BOLD REY	5/2	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BOLD REY	1	5/2	Front-runner	79	71	62.0	69.0	65.5
3	SOUGHT MORE PEP	3	5/1	Stalker	76	77	70.4	71.4	65.9
7	LOVE OF ART (IRE)	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	76	60.0	71.2	67.7
6	HUNKA BULL	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	58.3	57.4	44.9
4	DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	53	54.2	54.2	44.7
5	ARTISTIC MINISTRY	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	61	50.9	50.9	37.4
2	MADISON'S QUARTERS	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	64	45.1	55.5	47.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 8 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 68

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 PROTA 6/5
# 4 BYEBYE BYEBYE 5/2
# 2 CREATIVE MINESHAFT 7/2

I think PROTA is a quite good choice. Has strong front speed and should fare well versus this group. Is a definite contender - given the 70 speed fig from his most recent race. I would like this gelding on the jockey and trainer numbers alone. BYEBYE BYEBYE - Has performed quite well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 62 avg speed fig. With a competitive 65 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. CREATIVE MINESHAFT - Earning some nice paychecks in dirt sprint races. Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

01/21/21, GP, Race 7, 3.40 ET
01/21/21,GP,7,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $37,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. Weight, 120 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since October 21 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 96 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Coffee Buzz Buzz	12/1	Zayas E J	Russell Brittany	TL	294	27.89	1.23/$1
096.2323	6	Polished Gem	8/1	Leparoux J R	Wilkes Ian R.	F	82	42.68	2.24/$1
095.2713	4	I Get It	5/2	Vasquez M A	Spatz Ronald B.	E	289	28.37	1.29/$1
094.7492	8	Terry's Dream	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	O'Connell Kathleen	J	289	28.37	1.29/$1
092.6274	9	Sweet Pearl	7/2	Saez L	Dibona Bobby S.	S	289	28.37	1.29/$1
091.2728	3	Hadley	8/1	Alvarado J	Casse Mark E.		294	27.89	1.23/$1
091.0663	1	Dixieland Darling	15/1	Lopez P	Dini Michael		82	42.68	2.24/$1
090.2771	2	Viking Queen	12/1	Panici L	Gallegos Jose A.	C	289	28.37	1.29/$1
089.9641	7	Viburnum	9/2	Bravo J	Danner Kelsey	W	289	28.37	1.29/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.88, ROI 1.41/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Coffee Buzz Buzz
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]DoesNotCarryApprenticeWeight
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Coffee Buzz Buzz	12/1	Zayas E J	Russell Brittany	TL	304	24.01	0.70/$1
097.2711	6	Polished Gem	8/1	Leparoux J R	Wilkes Ian R.	F	304	24.01	0.70/$1
097.2111	8	Terry's Dream	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	O'Connell Kathleen	J	304	24.01	0.70/$1
097.1928	4	I Get It	5/2	Vasquez M A	Spatz Ronald B.	E	304	24.01	0.70/$1
097.0765	9	Sweet Pearl	7/2	Saez L	Dibona Bobby S.	S	304	24.01	0.70/$1
094.6393	3	Hadley	8/1	Alvarado J	Casse Mark E.		304	24.01	0.70/$1
094.5228	7	Viburnum	9/2	Bravo J	Danner Kelsey	W	304	24.01	0.70/$1
093.6740	1	Dixieland Darling	15/1	Lopez P	Dini Michael		304	24.01	0.70/$1
093.3686	2	Viking Queen	12/1	Panici L	Gallegos Jose A.	C	304	24.01	0.70/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 23.08, ROI 0.52/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Coffee Buzz Buzz
[Category]Condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#2 LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE (ML=6/1)
#4 BETTER BIZ (ML=6/1)
#6 LADY KAZA (ML=9/2)


LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE - When this jockey and handler partner up you have to take a look. Hernandez and Combs have been fantastic together. This equine didn't run well on a track listed as good in her last race around the track at Fair Grounds. You probably want to overlook that showing. BETTER BIZ - Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last time around the track. Without the slop, has a good shot right here. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a very important selection factor. This horse is ranked the highest in this field. LADY KAZA - I have to figure that today's shorter distance should help this filly. When Pedroza and Delahoussaye combine forces on equines the return on investment has been wonderful at +575. Don't throw this horse out due to her last event at Fair Grounds where she ended up seventh on the soft turf. I look for an improvement today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BELLA BELLE (ML=7/2), #8 BEE BALM (ML=4/1), #1 OVER THE BLUES (ML=5/1),

BELLA BELLE - This morning-line favorite may be out of form without any recent works. BEE BALM - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when examining the most recent efforts. This mare recorded a fig in her last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event. OVER THE BLUES - This vulnerable equine ran a common speed figure last time around the track. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #9 - Post: 7:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#9 MISHPOCHA (ML=9/5)


MISHPOCHA - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the power to make her presence felt. Just look at her recent figure, 48. That one fits in this field. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. This animal brings in a lot of dough per start. I believe she can increase the lifetime earnings in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 KOLKATA (ML=3/1), #1 CHIM CHIM GEMINI (ML=9/2), #4 BLAME IT ON MAMIE (ML=6/1),

KOLKATA - Probably won't make much of an impact today. CHIM CHIM GEMINI - This less than sharp equine ran a substandard speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's race running that figure. BLAME IT ON MAMIE - Couldn't close ground at any point on Dec 2nd. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to earn a much better speed figure than last out to compete in this turf sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MISHPOCHA - I love betting on horses that have a big advantage over the rest of the field when it comes to the TrackMaster Power Rating. This one fits the bill.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #9 MISHPOCHA on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	9 with [3,4] with [2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	9 with [2,3,4,6] with [2,3,4,6] with [2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 84

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 ADHHAR 7/2
# 3 CROCKETTS BLUFF 8/5
# 13 THE HUMONGOUS ONE 4/1

ADHHAR is my choice. This gelding must be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this group. Has been racing soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. CROCKETTS BLUFF - Has decent speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. THE HUMONGOUS ONE - Put up a sound Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. His 67 average has this gelding with among the best speed figures for this event.