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BEN BURNS | NBA SIDES SAT, 02/06/21 - 8:35 PM
548 DAL -4.0 (-110) Sportsbook.ag vs 547 GSW
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on DALLAS. These teams met on Thursday. The Warriors were pretty short-handed and played with a small lineu£p. That didn't stop them from embarrassing the Mavericks by a score of 147-116. That wasn't just a regular loss, coach Carlisle calling it a "difficult lesson." Desperate to avoid seeing their season slip away and also highly motivated to avenge that blowout, I absolutely expect to see the best of the Mavs on Saturday night. Note that Dallas has dominated the Warriors in recent seasons, Thursday notwithstanding. The previous four games saw the Mavs win by scores of 124-97, 141-121, 142-94 and 126-91. Oubre scored a career high (40) in points on Thursday and that won't happen again. Doncic will be on a mission from the opening tip. While things might seem bleak for the Mavs at the moment, they've got a stretch of winnable games ahead. I expect them to start by taking care of business in this one, covering the small number along the way.
Game: (307001) UMass Lowell at (307002) New Hampshire Date/Time: Feb 6 2021 1:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: UMass Lowell +2.5 (-110)
The wrong team is favored in this rematch as my math model favors Umass-Lowell by 0.39 points and the River Hawks are a better team in nearly every important metric. Umass Lowell applies to a very good 72-45 ATS system of mine that invests on certain road teams in games priced between +3 and -3. New Hampshire is ranked 284th in the nation in points per game (66.9), 319th in field goal percentage (39.98), and 247th in three-point field goal percentage (31.91). New Hampshire's defense lacks an inside presence as evidenced by the fact that the Wildcats are ranked 236th in the country in blocks per game (2.7).
The Wildcats struggle to create opportunities off turnovers as they are 286th nationally in turnovers forced per game (11.8). In contrast, Umass Lowell is 58th in turnovers per game (15.3). Finally, the River Hawks have played a more difficult schedule to date and should not be getting points against a subpar New Hampshire squad that has dropped three of their last four games.
Grab the points with Umass Lowell and invest with confidence.
Game: (681) Murray State at (682) Eastern Kentucky Date/Time: Feb 6 2021 4:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 5% Play: Eastern Kentucky +2.0 (-110)
My math model favors Eastern Kentucky by 0.51 points in this game and the Colonels are a profitable 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 12-3-2 ATS versus teams with a losing record, 7-1-1 ATS following a loss, and 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Let's also note that Eastern Kentucky is 10-1-2 ATS in its last thirteen home games versus teams with a .499 or worse road record, whereas Murray State is 3-7 ATS in its last ten games as a favorite, including 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Eastern Kentucky possesses an advantage over Murray State at almost every important metric, including points per game (84.0) and rebounds per game (37.3). The Colonels are 8-1 at home this season where they are averaging 86.2 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field. Overall, Eastern Kentucky's offense is 9.5 points per game better than average this season (84.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow just 74.5 points per game to a mediocre offense).
With Eastern Kentucky standing at 21-11 ATS in the previous 32 meetings in this series, grab the points with the better team and invest with confidence.
Game: (715) Cleveland State at (716) Oakland Date/Time: Feb 6 2021 5:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Cleveland State -1.0 (-110)
Cleveland continues to be undervalued by the betting market as evidenced by the fact that the Vikings are 12-3 ATS in their last fifteen games overall, including 6-1 ATS as underdogs. My math model favors Cleveland State by 2.24 points in this game and the Vikings never take lesser foes for granted as they are 46-21-1 ATS in their last 68 games versus .399 or worse opposition. The Vikings are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win and 7-2-1 ATS in their previous ten games versus teams with a losing record, while the underdog is a profitable 7-2 ATS in the past 9 meetings in this series.
Here's more technical support for our investment on the road underdog: Cleveland State is 11-0 ATS versus teams shooting below 42% from the field over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS versus teams that are being outscored by 4-plus points on the season. Finally, the Vikings are 12-3 ATS against subpar defensive teams (i.e. allowing 45% or greater FG%) and Oakland is allowing opponents to make 47.9% of their field goal attempts this season. Grab the point(s) with Cleveland State and invest with confidence.
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