Thursday 2/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

For Thursday night, let's play Houston and Memphis to post some big offensive numbers as the Rockets and Grizzlies head Over the total in Bluff City.

Houston has definitely been trending Over since getting rid of James Harden, as they head into this Thursday game at the Grind House having landed Over the total now in their last pair of games and in 3 of their last 5 overall. The Rockets have posted a 121.2 points per game average in those 5 games and with Memphis having just allowed Indiana to dent them for 134 points I think the Rockets can "blast off" again on offense tonight.

The Grizzlies play this one also on a bit of an Over run, as Memphis is back home after 3 in a row on the road in the Over column. Memphis is also on a 5-2 Over run for their last 7 games overall.

This is the first meeting between these Western Rivals this season and 4 of the last 7 between the teams have landed Over the total. I know past history is not indicative of future results, but with the way both teams have been stroking it lately and playing little defense, me thinks this Thursday tilt is going to head Over the total.

3* HOUSTON-MEMPHIS OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

The Nuggets and Lakers meet for the first time since their Western Conference Finals showdown in Orlando back in late September and my money will be on the Over to be the way to go when this game goes final.

Denver has landed Over in their last pair and in 6 of their last 7 overall heading into this Thursday night tilt at the Staples Center and Michael Malone's team has tipped Over the total in 15 of their 20 games overall this season!

Los Angeles has been pretty much opposite when it comes to their totals, as LA is back home finally after a 7-game road trip that saw 6 of the 7 play Under the total. For the year, Frank Vogel's team is 16-6 Under the total, so you can see that something will have to give in this first showdown of the season between the teams.

I am inclined to take a look at past series meetings which show 4 of their 5 playoff meetings landing Over the total. Not only that, but 7 of the last 8 overall meetings between the teams have also played Over the total dating back to December of 2019.

Let's go with the fireworks to prevail tonight.

Nuggets and Lakers Over the total.

2* DENVER-L.A. LAKERS OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Big Ten early action for Thursday and I will take the points and the Ohio State Buckeyes as they play at the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I think this game could come right down to the wire as the Bucks come into Carver-Hawkeye Arena winners of 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 straight up. Not only that, but OSU has been a solid investment when listed in the underdog role this year as they bring a 4-1-1 mark into this game when catching any points this year!

Iowa struggled on Tuesday to put away a Michigan State team that Ohio State just mauled by 17 points their last time out, as the Hawkeyes were at least able to snap their 2 game straight up losing streak but have now dropped 3 in a row against the spread.

This is the first meeting between these conference rivals and the series has been pretty hotly-contested with the Buckeyes holding on to a slight 3-2 straight up edge over the last 5 series meetings.

The Ohio State defense is allowing 67.7 points per game, while Iowa is allowing 74.4 points per game. Yes, Iowa is a little more versed on offense, averaging 89.4 points per game, but the Hawkeyes have not been close to that average in any of their last 3 games.

I say this one goes down to the wire.

Play Ohio State.

3* OHIO STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play for Thursday is on the Florida Panthers minus the small number against the Nashville Predators.

The Panthers return to action after sweeping the Red Wings in Detroit last weekend, and roll in with a 5-0-1 mark. Florida obviously has played fewer games than other teams because of a stoppage in play due to COVID issues, but also rolls into this one with a 2-0 mark after sweeping Chicago in their season-opening series in January.

I expect Sergei Bobrovsky (3-0) to make his 500th career start tonight, and will become the first Florida goalie to start a season 4-0 with a win tonight.

Florida will be strengthened on the front line tonight, as veteran forward Brett Connolly was a healthy scratch for both games in Detroit but is expected to be back on the third line tonight.

Ten of Florida’s 14 games in February will be played on home ice, including tonight's pick drop to a six-game homestand.

Regardless of how many games have been played, power-play percentage is power-play percentage, and the Panthers have the fourth-highest (36.84%) in the league. On the flipside, Nashville has the league's worst penalty kill (64.86%), while it also has the fourth-worst (11.11%) power play.

Finally, Florida's 14 even-strength goals-for in six games equates to 2.3 per game, while Nashville's 17 in nine games is less than 1 goal per game at 5-on-5.

Big game here, as the Panthers return home with a win.

2* PANTHERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root - NCAAB - Thu, Feb 04 at 7:00 PM
Temple

Cincinnati vs Temple
Temple -1.5 (-103) (BetAnySports)

I think the oddsmakers have set this game up as a trap play. Primarily based on the play of good former Cincinnati teams. Temple has not had a successful season this far but has played better than Cincinnati. The Owls half covered the spread in five of their first nine games with one push, while Cincinnati has struggled from the start losing seven of its first 10 straight up and failing to cover the spread in eight of those same 10. Again, the oddsmakers make you pay a premium on certain teams with inflated lines and causing the public to get blindsided. The Bearcats allow an average of 72.3 points per game and opponents are shooting 45.4% against Cincinnati's defense. The Cincy offense is generating just 69.7 points per game while shooting a below-average 43.1% overall. You don’t win with shooting percentages like this. The Bearcats have just two legitimate scoring threats in Keith Williams and Jeremiah Davenport and defenses can focus on stopping the pair; and they do. Be sure to check out Wayne’s Super Bowl 15 prop bets. Huge returns this Sunday. Hoops we are 41-21, 66% here and have another top play today; our Pinnacle Play. Get it and then bet those prop bets with his side and total to compliment it. Good luck to all. WAR

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al McMordie - NCAAB - Thu, Feb 04 at 9:00 PM
BIG AL's FREE PACIFIC/GONZAGA WINNER!

Gonzaga vs Pacific
Pacific +23.5 (-102) (BetAnySports)

At 9 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Pacific Tigers + the points over Gonzaga. These two teams met last month in Spokane, and the Bulldogs pounded Pacific, 95-49, as a 26-point favorite. And that was the 16th straight loss in this series for the Tigers. But with revenge from that 46-point loss, we'll grab the points with the big underdog tonight. Indeed, since 1990, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 51-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 42 points earlier in the season. Take the Tigers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (731) Ohio State at (732) Iowa
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 157 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (735) Cincinnati at (736) Temple
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Cincinnati -2.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (3) Vancouver Canucks at (4) Toronto Maple Leafs
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125)
NHL - Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs
Quick Synopsis: Leafs have had 4 days off since their OT loss in Edmonton that ended a 4 game win streak. The Canucks come in off 1 days rest after back to back losses in Montreal and it'll be tough to back this side until we see consistently better performances against the North's better sides. 4 of their 6 wins have come against Ottawa (3) and Winnipeg. Toronto sit 2nd in the North and have won 3 of 4 at home. Freddie Anderson and Holtby are scheduled to start and Andersons splits against the Canucks are solid at 10-2-5 with a 1.55 GAA and a .942 SV%
The play is Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (503) Golden State Warriors at (504) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-110)
Our numbers have this lined at even so catching points here with the Warriors presents some value on Thursday.
Dallas come off a big win over Atlanta last night to snap their six game losing streak in a spot we backed them in, but Golden State present a different type of challenge, and we like the value catching points with the road team here.
Steph Curry continues to get it done at the basket, putting up 38 points against Boston on Tuesday night and now ranks joint 1st in the league on overall points scored alongside Bradley Beal.
Golden State are also a top 10 team on defense, ranking #8 overall in the league on defensive efficiency and #2 on opponent shooting percentage.
Both teams might not have a full roster with some concerns at center for the Warriors and the Mavericks having health issues also.
Porzingis might sit out tonight for the Mavericks after contributing 24 points and 11 rebounds in last night's win against the Hawks, but even if he doesn't, with some tired legs on display after returning home in a no rest situation against an underrated team, we like the Warriors in this spot to cover and likely win this game outright.
Take the Warriors plus the points for Thursday.
PLAY: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports - NBA - Thu, Feb 04 at 7:35 PM
POWER'S FREE JAZZ-HAWKS WINNER

Utah Jazz vs Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks +8 (-107) (BetAnySports)

1* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Even with the Hawks in the second night of a back to back, this spread is too high. The Jazz were due to cool off after winning and covering 11 in a row, and sure enough are 0-2 ATS the L2 games. They did beat Detroit two nights ago, but not by enough to cover the spread. Atlanta has had just one losing streak of more than two games this year and they are off B2B losses here. They have revenge and are 5-1 ATS after a game where they allowed 115 or more points. 1* Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, February 4

Arizona @ Utah
Arizona (13-4, 7-4)
— ranked #30 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #298
— Continuity: #323
— Arizona won four of its last five games.
— Wildcats are 4-1 on Pac-12 road, losing to Stanford in Santa Cruz.
— Arizona is a top 20 rebounding team in country.

Utah (7-7, 4-6)
— ranked #72 by KenPom
— Tempo: #234
— Experience: #282
— Continuity: #16
— Utah won three of its last five games.
— Utes lost three of their five Pac-12 home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Utah is #227 in country on offensive boards, #225 on defensive boards.

— Arizona won 14 of last 16 series games.
— Wildcats lost two of last three visits to Sale Lake City.

Murray State @ Morehead State
Murray State (8-8, 5-6)
— ranked #149 by KenPom
— Tempo: #276
— Experience: #250
— Continuity: #69
— Racers won four of their last six games.
— Murray lost five of its seven road games this year.
— Racers are 0-5 in OVC games decided by 6 or fewer points.

Morehead State (13-6, 10-2)
— ranked #162 by KenPom
— Tempo: #284
— Experience: #201
— Continuity: #266
— Morehead won last nine games, the last six by 14+ points.
— Eagles won their last four home games, by 3-1-11-31 points.
— Morehead is turning ball over 24.1% of time (#339).

— Morehead won 61-56 at Murray State January 2.
— Murray won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last two series games played here.

Ohio State @ Iowa
Ohio State (14-4, 8-4)
— ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #271
— Experience: #96
— Continuity: #178
— Buckeyes won six of their last seven games.
— Ohio State scored 78.7 ppg in winning its last three games.
— Buckeyes won last three road tilts, by 11-6-12 points.

Iowa (13-4, 7-3)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #101
— Experience: #215
— Continuity: #45
— Iowa lost two of last three games, after a 12-2 start.
— Iowa has #17 eFG% in country— 38.2% on arc (#29), 55% inside arc (#33)
— Only one Hawkeye played more than 24:00 in Tuesday’s win vs Michigan St.

— Teams split last 12 series games.
— Buckeyes lost 72-62/88-76 in last two visits here.

Cincinnati @ Temple
Cincinnati (3-7, 1-4)
— ranked #85 by KenPom
— Tempo: #61
— Experience: #213
— Continuity: #211
— Bearcats haven’t played since January 10.
— Four of their last five losses were by 6 or fewer points.
— Cincy is shooting 28.2% on arc (#328).

Temple (4-5, 3-5)
— ranked #151 by KenPom
— Tempo: #155
— Experience: #230
— Continuity: #293
— Temple is 4-0 when it allows 67 or fewer points, 0-5 when it allows more.
— Owls are shooting 43.9% inside arc (#322), 32% on arc (#235)
— Temple lost two of its last three home games.

— Cincinnati won last seven series games.
— Bearcats won their last four visits to Temple.

Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay (10-6, 6-4)
— ranked #203 by KenPom
— Tempo: #255
— Experience: #236
— Continuity: #133
— Governors are #43 at forcing turnovers, #20 on offensive boards.
— Opponents are shooting 57.2% inside arc (#334)
— Austin Peay is one of 15 shortest teams in country.

Eastern Kentucky (14-2, 8-1)
— ranked #155 by KenPom
— Tempo: #5
— Experience: #294
— Continuity: #190
— EKU won its last eight games (3 of last 5 in OT).
— Colonels are forcing turnovers 25.7% of time (#5)
— EKU played four guys 36:00+ in Tuesday’s OT win at Jacksonville St.

— EKU won 80-75 at Austin Peay January 2.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Teams also split last two meetings played here.

Belmont @ Eastern Illinois
Belmont (18-1, 12-0)
— ranked #93 by KenPom
— Tempo: #51
— Experience: #287
— Continuity: #198
— Belmont won its last 15 games, since a 96-83 loss to Samford.
— Bruins are 6-0 on OVC road; last three road wins were by 1-5-7 points.
— Belmont is shooting 61.4% inside arc (#2)

Eastern Illinois (6-13, 3-9)
— ranked #308 by KenPom
— Tempo: #174
— Experience: #6
— Continuity: #98
— Eastern lost eight of its last nine games- they won Tuesday.
— EIU lost its last four home games, by 3-26-8-13 points.
— Panthers have #270 eFG% in country.

— EIU lost 79-66 at Belmont January 21.
— Belmont won last eight series games.
— Bruins won two last visits here, by 13-9 points.

Stanford @ California
Stanford (10-7, 6-5)
— ranked #48 by KenPom
— Tempo: #102
— Experience: #296
— Continuity: #73
— Stanford lost four of its last six games.
— Cardinal is turning ball over 21.3% of time in Pac-12 games (#11)
— Stanford is turning ball over 21.7% of time (#286)

California (7-12, 2-10)
— ranked #141 by KenPom
— Tempo: #319
— Experience: #97
— Continuity: #107
— Cal lost its last four games, scoring 60.8 ppg.
— Golden Bears lost four of their five Pac-12 home games.
— Opponents are shooting 40.1% on arc (#341).

— California won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here.
— These teams play again in Palo Alto Saturday.

Washington @ Oregon State
Washington (3-12, 2-8)
— ranked #146 by KenPom
— Tempo: #74
— Experience: #118
— Continuity: #196
— Huskies won two of last three games, after a 1-11 start.
— Washington is 0-5 on Pac-12 road (3 losses by 14+ points)
— Washington has #259 eFG% in country.

Oregon State (8-7, 4-5)
— ranked #121 by KenPom
— Tempo: #332
— Experience: #88
— Continuity: #157
— Beavers lost last two games, scoring 62-52 points.
— Oregon State is shooting 43.6% inside arc (#326)
— OSU is 3-2 in Pac-12 home games, winning by 9-1-2 points.

— Washington won last three series games.
— Huskies lost three of last four visits to Corvallis.

Colorado State @ Wyoming
Colorado State (12-4, 9-3)
— ranked #68 by KenPom
— Tempo: #85
— Experience: #313
— Continuity: #47
— Rams split their four Mountain West road games.
— In these back/back series, CSU is 4-1 in series openers.
— Rams are shooting 39.2% on arc (#15), have #13 eFG%.

Wyoming (10-7, 4-6)
— ranked #196 by KenPom
— Tempo: #103
— Experience: #334
— Continuity: #175
— Wyoming split its four Mountain West home games.
— Opponents are shooting 54.3% inside arc (#296).
— Cowboys are getting 39.3% of their points on arc (#20).

— Colorado State won three of last four series games.
— Rams won three of last four visits to Laramie.

Utah State @ Fresno State
Utah State (13-5, 10-2)
— ranked #51 by KenPom
— Tempo: #112
— Experience: #262
— Continuity: #148
— Aggies lost two of last three games, after a 9-0 MW start.
— Utah St is forcing turnovers 22.3% of time in MW games (#2 of 11)
— Aggies are a top 15 rebounding team in the country.

Fresno State (7-6, 5-6)
— ranked #186 by KenPom
— Tempo: #272
— Experience: #306
— Continuity: #302
— Fresno is 5-1 at home, 0-5 on road in Mountain West games.
— Bulldogs are turning ball over 21.9% of time (#300)
— Fresno is shooting 29.6% on arc (#305), 62.5% on line (#331)

— Utah State won seven of last eight series games.
— Aggies won last three visits to Fresno, by 3-1-12 points.

Montana State @ Weber State
Montana State (9-3, 6-0)
— ranked #187 by KenPom
— Tempo: #187
— Experience: #98
— Continuity: #229
— Four of Montana State’s six Big Sky wins were on road.
— MSU has #26 eFG% defense in the country.
— Bobcats haven’t played in 12 days.

Weber State (9-4, 4-2)
— ranked #176 by KenPom
— Tempo: #39
— Experience: #66
— Continuity: #318
— Weber won five of its last six games.
— Weber won its only Big Sky home game, 91-67 over Southern Utah.
— Wildcats are shooting 39.7% on arc in Big Sky games (#1)

— Montana State swept Weber LY by 1-14 points, after losing previous 11 series games.

Minnesota @ Rutgers
Minnesota (11-6, 4-6)
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Tempo: #93
— Experience: #131
— Continuity: #188
— Gophers lost five of their last seven games.
— Minnesota is 0-5 on Big 14 road, with all five losses by 12+ points.
— Gophers are shooting 29.9% on arc (#303).

Rutgers (10-6, 6-6)
— ranked #25 by KenPom
— Tempo: #183
— Experience: #99
— Continuity: #11
— Rutgers won its last three games,, giving up 54.3 ppg.
— Scarlet Knights lost three of their last four home games.
— Rutgers is forcing turnovers 19.9% of time in Big 14 games (#1).

— Rutgers won three of last four series games.
— Gophers lost last two visits to the Garden State, 68-64/64-56.

Washington State @ Oregon
Washington State (10-7, 3-7)
— ranked #124 by KenPom
— Tempo: #188
— Experience: #325
— Continuity: #206
— Wazzu lost six of its last seven games.
— Coogs are 2-4 on Pac-12 road, winning at Cal/Washington.
— Wazzu is turning ball over 22.3% of time in Pac-12 games (last)

Oregon (9-3, 4-2)
— ranked #32 by KenPom
— Tempo: #152
— Experience: #38
— Continuity: #307
— Oregon hasn’t played in 12 days; this is their 2nd game in 26 days.
— Ducks won two of three Pac-12 home tilts (lost to Oregon State).
— Oregon won three of its five top 100 games.

— Oregon won eight of last ten series games.
— Coogs lost their last nine visits to Eugene, last five by 14+ points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

725TENNESSEE ST -726 SIU EDWARDSVL
TENNESSEE ST is 5-20 ATS (-17 Units) in road games after a conference game in the last 3 seasons.

727ARIZONA -728 UTAH
ARIZONA is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

729MURRAY ST -730 MOREHEAD ST
MOREHEAD ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals in the current season.

731OHIO ST -732 IOWA
IOWA is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

733BYU -734 PORTLAND
BYU is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

733BYU -734 PORTLAND
Mark Pope is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread (Coach of BYU)

735CINCINNATI -736 TEMPLE
CINCINNATI is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

737AUSTIN PEAY -738 E KENTUCKY
E KENTUCKY is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 in the current season.

741BELMONT -742 E ILLINOIS
E ILLINOIS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the current season.

743STANFORD -744 CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

503GOLDEN STATE -504 DALLAS
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more over the last 2 seasons.

505UTAH -506 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 96-70 ATS (19 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points since 1996.

507HOUSTON -508 MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS are 33-19 ATS (12.1 Units) in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

509DENVER -510 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, February 4

Utah @ Atlanta
Jazz (15-5)
— Utah won 11 of its last 12 games (10-1-1 ATS).
— Jazz won/covered four of their last five road games.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight Utah games.

Hawks (10-11)
— Atlanta lost four of its last six games.
— Hawks are 5-6 SU at home, 1-2 ATS as home underdogs.
— 13 of Atlanta’s last 17 games stayed under total.

— Utah won three of last four series games.
— Jazz are 2-3 ATS in last five series games.
— Six of last nine series games stayed under.

Golden State @ Dallas
Warriors (11-10)
— Golden State split its last twelve games SU.
— Warriors are 3-5 SU on road, 2-6 ATS.
— Golden State’s last three games stayed under.

Mavericks (9-13)
— Dallas lost six of its last seven games (1-6 ATS).
— Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in last five home games.
— Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Dallas games.

— Dallas won last four series games, scoring 133.3 ppg.
— Warriors are 0-4 ATS in last four visits here.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Portland @ Philadelphia
Trailblazers (11-9)
— Portland split its last ten games SU.
— Blazers are 7-3 ATS on road this season.
— Over is 6-1 in Portland’s last seven games.
— Starting G McCollum/C Nurkic are both out.

76ers (14-6)
— 76ers won nine of their last 11 games. (3-0-1 ATS last four)
— Sixers are 8-2 ATS in last ten home games.
— Over is 6-2 in Philly’s last eight games overall.

— Portland won four of last five series games.
— Blazers covered once in last four visits to Philly.
— Last five series games went over the total.

Houston @ Memphis
Rockets (10-10)
— Houston won six of its last seven games (5-2 ATS).
— Rockets won/covered four of their last five road tilts.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five road games.

Grizzlies (9-7)
— Memphis won seven of its last eight games (6-1-1 ATS).
— Grizzlies won last three home games; they’re 3-4-1 ATS at home.
— Last three Memphis games went over the total.

— Houston won/covered 7 of last 9 series games.
— Rockets are 3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tennessee.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games played here.

Denver @ LA Lakers
Nuggets (12-8)
— Denver won/covered six of its last seven games.
— Nuggets won seven of last nine road games. (6-3 ATS)
— Over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six games.

Lakers (16-6)
— Lakers won five of last seven games, are 1-4 ATS in last five.
— Lakers are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

— Lakers won six of last seven series games.
— Denver covered four of last six series games played here.
— Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.