Wednesday 3/10/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #1 - Post: 4:10pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#4 KNOWYOUROPTIONS (ML=4/1)
#5 SOUTHGATE (ML=8/1)


KNOWYOUROPTIONS - Good return on investment for this jockey and handler pair. A racer coming back this promptly after a strong race is a good omen. SOUTHGATE - Was in a $25,000 Claiming race at Sam Houston last time around the track. That race had a class rating of 95 and he is moving down today. A certain solid contender. Another way to determine class is earnings per start. This horse has the highest in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAJOR BROWN (ML=6/5), #1 HOUR CITY (ML=9/5),

MAJOR BROWN - This favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on him today. You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he falters regularly. HOUR CITY - You always believe this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he falls short often.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 KNOWYOUROPTIONS is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BREAKTHROUGH 3/5
# 4 UNCUT GEM 12/1
# 1 CAN'T BE BROKEN 30/1

BREAKTHROUGH is my choice. Has competitive speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this race. Has to be considered - I like the figures from the last affair. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. UNCUT GEM - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in turf sprint contests in this field of horses. This pony must be bet upon at the expected big odds.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park

03/10/21, TP, Race 2, 6.46 ET
03/10/21,TP,2,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $13,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, For Each $2,500 To $10,000 1 lb.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Sweet Samurai	6/1	Hernandez R M	Jazdzewski Jon	JS	303	27.39	1.32/$1
097.4222	5	Ready N Waiting	2/1	Morales E	Gorder Kellyn	L	341	27.86	1.27/$1
097.1291	1	Lady At the Bar	10/1	Ouzts P W	West Aaron M.	T	341	27.86	1.27/$1
097.0170	2	Shesalittle Edgy	8/5	Bejarano R	Bradley William B.	EC	303	27.39	1.32/$1
093.9108	8	Divine Exchange	8/1	Cannon D	Austin Timothy	W	303	27.39	1.32/$1
092.8043	6	Dream to Win	8/1	Gonzalez S	Hamm Timothy E.		303	27.39	1.32/$1
091.0759	3	Karla's Dream	20/1	Gomez A	Stephen Anthony		303	27.39	1.32/$1
089.7777	4	Storm Charging(b+)	15/1	Mojica. Jr. R	Fernandez Edward		303	27.39	1.32/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.5778
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRacePurseNotSameAsToday

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #9 - Post: 9:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#5 MOOCHIE MAN (ML=8/1)
#4 PROUDMIAMICITIZEN (ML=15/1)


MOOCHIE MAN - Nice return on investment for this jockey and trainer pair. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his February 10th race at Penn National. Based on that data, I will give this horse the edge. PROUDMIAMICITIZEN - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the ability to make his presence felt. This horse ran outside the top 3 at Parx Racing last out on a track listed as good. He should improve in this race without a sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LAWYER ROY (ML=3/2), #6 LORD OF HOPE (ML=2/1), #2 CAPE DESIDERATO (ML=3/1),

LAWYER ROY - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Difficult to support any steed in a short distance clash if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. LORD OF HOPE - This gelding hasn't had any strong victories in short distance contests in the last 60 days. This gelding registered a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. CAPE DESIDERATO - This runner hasn't been close at the finish line lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 MOOCHIE MAN to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF FOUR RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 DANCING DESTINY 3/5
# 5 MARY'S LISTED NEXT 6/1
# 1 MANDY 8/1

DANCING DESTINY looks like the wager in here. Must be given a shot here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. This mare obviously likes the distance, going 7 out of 20 in her races lately. Looks quite good to be close to the lead at the first call. MARY'S LISTED NEXT - Had one of the top Equibase speed figs of this group in her last race. She has garnered competitive numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. MANDY - With a nice class rating average of 75, has one of the top class advantages in this field. Has recorded formidable Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings

March 9, 2021

Updated regularly, these rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - LIFE IS GOOD (B. Baffert) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($274,200). Derby Points: 60
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $525,000Y; second foal of placed dam; second, third, and fourth dams were listed stakes winners; unbeaten in three gate-to-wire starts, a 6.5F maiden at Del Mar in November (by nine and one-half lengths), a three-quarter length victory in the 8F Sham S.-G in early January, and then most recently in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 (by eight widening lengths from stable mate Medina Spirit) despite drifting outing towards the middle of the track in the final furlong while earning a career top 107 Beyer speed figure and looking every bit the most naturally gifted runner in his class; likely to have his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in the 9F Santa Anita Derby Apr 3; still somewhat green and a bit unpredictable and tends to want to pull early though at this stage of his young career certainly seems to be a dyed-in-the-wool front-runner; has the ability to switch off on the lead and then re-break but there must be some concern with regards to his antics in his most recent start; as a son of North America’s premier stallion Into Mischief has the makings of a brilliant sprinter/middle distance performer but there will always be some doubt to his ability to successfully handle a classic distance until he actually he actually does so.
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2 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 125 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 or April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and three-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from seven and one-half lengths back) and then registering a three and one-quarter lengths score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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3 - GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 60
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale), second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; took four races to break his maiden but has been unbeaten in his last three starts (all at Gulfstream Park) including the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by five and three-quarter lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by one and one-half lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month); not particular fast on speed figures though he’s never taken a backward move through six career starts; has been visually quite impressive rallying wide over a main track that traditionally plays against that style; pedigree suggests he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase; likely to have his final Triple Crown prep race in the Florida Derby-G1 in late March; campaign is reminiscent of Orb, who took the same path when winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby-G1 for this trainer.
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4 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($36,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Santa Anita, 7F San Vicente S.-G2, finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G3
Latest workout: March 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:11.2h

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in two career starts, most recently all out with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 by one-half length from B. Baffert-trained stable mate Freedom Fighter; strong speed figure in victory after returning in just three weeks from 6F debut maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita in mid-January (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests he’ll handle at least a middle distance and will try two-turns for the first time at Oaklawn Park in 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in mid-March; is following the identical pattern/schedule as Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; intriguing prospect with loads of upside.
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5 – MANDALOUN (B. Cox) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 4-3-10-1 ($351,252). Derby Points: 52
Last start: Feb. 13, 2021, Fair Grounds, 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 30, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby S.-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Fair Grounds, 5f, :59.1b

The skinny: Juddmonte Farm homebred, dam multiple graded stakes winner in Ireland; victorious in three of four career starts, including the 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in mid-February (by one and one-quarter lengths from Proxy); previously suffered only career defeat in 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 (by 1 length when third to Midnight Bourbon and Proxy) after being wide throughout; speed figures have risen significantly with each outing; employs an ideal pace-stalking style; should be able to handle the Derby’s 10F classic distance; scheduled to have final Triple Crown prep in 9.5F Louisiana Derby in late March; progressing smoothly for Eclipse Award winning trainer though the level of competition he’s faced so far may be a tad suspect.
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6 - CADDO RIVER (B. Cox) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($166,092). Derby points: 10
Last start: Jan. 22, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8F Smarty Jones S., finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G3
Latest workout: March 6, Fair Grounds, 5f, 100.1b

The skinny: Shortleaf Stable homebred; dam listed stakes winner and multiple graded stakes placed over middle distances; from the family of Preakness S.-G1 winner Tank’s Prospect; runner-up in his first two starts in New York (both 7F) before graduating by nine and one-half lengths in one-turn 8F maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in November; was ultra-impressive upon his reappearance in the listed 8F Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park in January, establishing the lead easily and then drawing away at will while under cruise control; speed figures are strong and have risen with each outing; both wins were accomplished gate-to-wire but he gives the impression he’s not necessarily a need-the-lead type; pedigree suggests classic distance may be within his range; Arkansas-based and is slated to make his next start in mid-March in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2
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7 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: None

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten three quarters of a length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in his final Kentucky Derby prep next month if he can be allowed to get out from under his superior stable mate’s vast shadow.
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8 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 121 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Belmont Park, 4f, :49b TT

The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by 3 and three-quarter lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid; speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
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9 - PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 1-1-0-0 ($25,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: Jan. 23, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 7f Maiden Special Weight, finished first
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: March 5, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.3b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; successful at 7-1 in his debut by eight and one-half lengths in 7F maiden at Gulfstream Park in January, pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear impressively without ever being asked in the final furlong; earned strong speed figure that really doesn’t even do his performance justice; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; missed a scheduled start in the 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 in late February due to what was termed a minor illness; connections hoping to find an allowance race that can serve as a springboard to a major Triple Crown prep; clearly an exciting prospect but finds himself a bit behind the 8-ball with the Derby less than two months away and with no qualifying points on his resume.
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10 – KEEPMEINMIND (R. Diodoro) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop
Lifetime record: 4-1-2-1 ($60,020). Derby points: 18
Last start: Nov. 28, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2, finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G2
Latest workout: March 5, Oaklawn Park, 5f, 1:02.1h

The skinny: From the first crop of the promising young Uncle Mo stallion Laoban but with strictly a; sprint female family; half-brother to GSP In Jack’s Memory (3rd, Amsterdam S.-G3); dam a sprint stakes winner and half-sister to two GSW sprinters Mellow Fellow and Zawzooth; in the frame in all four starts during a productive juvenile campaign that concluded with a maiden-breaking win in the 8.5F Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2 at Churchill Downs in November; (form out of the race hasn’t held and the speed figure came up light); previously had produced a willing late bid with the strong help of the race-flow to finish a respectable third in the BC Juvenile-G1 (at 30-1) behind champion Essential Quality after winding up second to that same colt (by three and one-half lengths) in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1; has had his training interrupted periodically by poor weather at his home base at Oaklawn Park but is scheduled to make his sophomore debut in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in mid-March; not particularly impressive in the speed figure department but the company lines look good; curious to see how much if any he’s progressed over the winter.
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11 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 6-1-1-02($395,700). Derby points: 10
Last start: Jan. 30, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3, finished third
Next start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14h)

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; raced five times during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; numbers are solid; Preakness winning sire helps in the stamina department but he’s no sure thing to be comfortable at a classic distance.
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12 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $650,00Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered one and three-quarters lengths victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better move on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; still has plenty to prove but remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
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Knocking on the door: Proxy (M. Stidham); Collaborate (S. Joseph, Jr); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Helium (M. Casse), Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Wayburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy); Spielberg (B. Baffert)
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

SA Stats: Dirt Favorites Continue to Struggle

March 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Santa Anita Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Southern California. And be sure to support “The Great Race Place” by betting with the official betting app of Santa Anita Park.

Headlines

Historic 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver comes west for Saturday’s Grade 1 Beholder Mile, highlighting a stakes menu that also includes Saturday’s Grade 3 San Simeon for turf sprinters. The grass dashers also are spotlighted Sunday in the Irish O’Brien for Cal-breds … Santa Anita opens the racing week Friday with a $53,769 one-day carryover in the Rainbow 6 … Saturday’s mandatory Rainbow 6 payout drew $5.13 million in new money … Santa Anita also has a $13,086 carryover in the Super High 5 pool into Friday … Jockey Joel Rosario will be on the road Saturday when he partners with Bob Baffert’s San Vicente winner Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn … Good luck to the Beat the Host contest finalists who are playing Saturday in the Championship Round, which will be comprised of races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was not solved, resulting in a $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 12, will be:

Leg A: Laurel Park Race 8 with a post time of 3:55 pm ET
Leg B: Gulfstream Park Race 7
Leg C: Laurel Park Race 9
Leg D: Santa Anita Park Race 3
Leg E: Golden Gate Fields Race 3

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 32% or greater win rate and showing a flat-bet profit.

Best Speed Today’s Distance
Win %
Jockey 1 Year Win %

Trends Last Week

-- Main-track favorites were only 2-16 last week, bailed out by 1-2 shot Life is Good in Saturday’s San Felipe, and Sunday claimer Pawnee at even-money. They are now 6-for-31 (19%) over the past 2 weeks.

-- Bob Baffert remained dialed in at 11: 4-1-2 on the week, including a 3-win Saturday with $3, $7 and $19 returns. He’s posting 35% wins and 54% in the exacta locally since Feb. 12.

-- Trainer Richard Baltas posted a 9: 4-1-2 record with winners at $3, $6, $8 and $12. He added 3 turf allowance wins to Idol’s victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat went 5: 2-1-2 in tandem.

-- Trainer Mark Glatt had been nibbling around the edges, but broke through last week with a 4: 2-1-1 mark in limited strikes. He had a $13 winner among the quartet of runners. The barn had 9 runner-up finishes from just 20 starters between Feb. 14 and last week’s breakout.

-- Jockey Tyler Baze had a rock-solid 10: 3-1-1 week, booting home $7, $12 and $13 winners for 3 different barns. Baze boasted a $1.62 ROI for every $1 bet.

-- Jockey Jessica Pyfer was knocking on the door with a 10: 1-4-1 mark. The apprentice had a $32 upset winner as well as 12-1 and 17-1 runner-ups. She had a win and a runner-up in 2 mounts for trainer Phil D’Amato.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GP Stats: Speed Factors Rise to Top

March 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

Promising debut winner Prevalence returns Thursday in a Race 8 allowance that could springboard him toward one of April’s final round of Triple Crown prep races … Sprinters are co-featured this week in Saturday’s Hurricane Bertie Stakes and Silks Run Stakes, the latter on turf … Gulfstream Park starts anew Wednesday in the Rainbow 6 jackpot bet after Sunday’s mandatory payout lured $5.47 million in new wagers … Jockey Luis Saez will be on the road Saturday when he partners with champion 2-year-old and leading Triple Crown hopeful Essential Quality in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn … Good luck to the Beat the Host contest finalists who are playing Saturday in the Championship Round, which will be comprised of races from Santa Anita and Gulfstream.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was not solved, resulting in a $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 12, will be:

Leg A: Laurel Park Race 8 with a post time of 3:55 pm ET
Leg B: Gulfstream Park Race 7
Leg C: Laurel Park Race 9
Leg D: Santa Anita Park Race 3
Leg E: Golden Gate Fields Race 3

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 33% or greater win rate.

Avg. Speed Last 3
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed
Jockey Current Year

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Irad Ortiz had a 5-win Friday card and followed up with 4 on Sunday, producing a whopping 14 winners on the week. His nearly 26% win rate towered over the competition as only 2 other pilots topped 15%. Nine of his winners were favorites

-- Jockey Paco Lopez was 11: 5-3-0 aboard favorites last week, including 2-for-2 teamed with Kent Sweezey-trained chalks.

-- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa was on the money at 5: 3-0-0, posting all 3 wins in dirt sprints ($3, $6, $14 returns). All 3 winners were first time off the claim, a move that’s a Zerpa stats staple.

-- Trainer Anthony Quartarolo went 2-for-2 with limited strikes, snapping an 0-18 GP record in 2021 prior. Jose Ortiz rode both well-backed winners.

-- Since winning 7 straight races in late February, trainer Peter Walder has gone 0-7 (including 0-4 last week), which includes defeats at even-money and 6-5 odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MJC Stats: Russell Rolls into Stakes Weekend

March 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Laurel Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Laurel Park by betting with the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

Saturday’s 5-stakes program on Good Samaritan Day boasts $450,000 in purses for the quintet of main events, including the $100,000 Private Terms Stakes on Maryland’s path to the Preakness. Miracle Wood Stakes winner Maythehorsebewithu is among the expected Private Terms entries when fields for those races are drawn Wednesday … Laurel has a $10,762 carryover in the Rainbow 6 jackpot heading into Friday’s week opener … MJC announced last week a 7-race stakes schedule for Laurel’s 2021 Spring Meet, which runs April 1-May 2. Features include April 17 Win & You’re In races for the Preakness (Federico Tesio Stakes) and Black-Eyed Susan (Weber City Miss Stakes).

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was not solved, resulting in a $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 12, will be:

Leg A: Laurel Park Race 8 with a post time of 3:55 pm ET
Leg B: Gulfstream Park Race 7
Leg C: Laurel Park Race 9
Leg D: Santa Anita Park Race 3
Leg E: Golden Gate Fields Race 3

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Laurel, each posting at least 32% wins. Speed and pace factors continued their dominance at Laurel.

Last E2 (Early Pace)

Trainer Meet

Avg. Speed Last 3

Trends Last Week

-- Leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez poured it on with a 12: 5-2-2 record and dominated at 5: 4-0-1 with Angel Cruz in the saddle. Gonzalez had a $1.63 ROI for every $1 bet, including an $18 winner and 2 winning favorites. Gonzalez was 5: 4-0-1 in maiden claiming races.

-- Trainer Mike Gorham was 2-for-4 with limited shots, teaming with Sheldon Russell on both wins. Winners paid $6 and $9.

-- Trainer Jerry Robb only had a couple starters, but his 2: 1-1-0 record advanced him to 25: 10-4-2 since Jan. 30 at Laurel.

-- Jockey Sheldon Russell was dialed in at 12: 6-1-1, including 7: 4-1-1 aboard favorites. He posted a $1.83 ROI for every $1 bet while riding winners for 5 different trainers.

-- Jockey Angel Cruz struck at 9: 4-0-2. He was 2-for-2 with favorites, while all 4 winners came in tandem with trainer Claudio Gonzalez.

-- Favorites were a rock-solid 25: 10-5-5 last week (40% win, 60% exacta, 80% trifecta).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GG Stats: McCanna Posts Monster Week

March 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

Golden Gate Fields has a $90,289 carryover in the Rainbow 6 heading into Thursday’s weekly kickoff card … Apprentice jockey Santos Rivera, second in the Golden Gate summer and fall standings, has returned to the colony after trying his hand at Santa Anita and Fair Grounds … Friday’s Race 4 maiden special weight for 3-year-olds includes Triple Crown nominees Exalted and Tesoro, the latter exiting the El Camino Real Derby … 2021 El Camino Real Derby winner Rombauer is being considered for the March 20 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (entries close this Saturday), as well as the April 3 Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 was not solved, resulting in a $154,931 carryover into this week’s offering. Stronach 5 races this Friday, March 12, will be:

Leg A: Laurel Park Race 8 with a post time of 3:55 pm ET
Leg B: Gulfstream Park Race 7
Leg C: Laurel Park Race 9
Leg D: Santa Anita Park Race 3
Leg E: Golden Gate Fields Race 3

Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 29% winners.

Jockey Meet
Last E2 (Early Pace)
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed

Trends Last Week

-- Favorites continued to excel at 32: 15-5-7 last week and are winning over 48% the past 3 weeks.

-- Trainer Tim McCanna crushed it at 11: 6-1-1 and a $2.96 ROI for every $1 bet. He flashed $10, $15 and $26 winners and was a wild 5: 4-1-0 teamed with jockey Irving Orosco.

-- Trainer Jamey Thomas was on point with limited tries at 4: 2-0-2, though both winners were 8-5 shots and no runner was more than 5-2. His runners are 13-for-24 in the exacta since Feb. 1.

-- Leading jockey Kyle Frey went 26: 10-5-4, including a 7-for-11 record with favorites. He won 38% and was in the exacta 58% on the week, but still managed a losing $.90 ROI for every $1 bet. Frey was 0-8 on horses that were 7-2 odds or higher.

-- Jockey Irving Orozco posted a 20: 7-5-3 mark. He was 7: 4-1-2 aboard favorites, and added $10 and $16 scores. Orozco went 5: 4-1-0 when riding for trainer Tim McCanna.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday Myths: Miss the Wedding, Attend the Funeral?

Welcome to a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Data powers the app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

If you missed the wedding, don’t attend the funeral.

Background:

There’s a racetrack axiom that when longshot winners score, you should avoid them at shorter prices next time. If I didn’t cash for $30, why would I take 5-1 when he runs the next time? That’s the wedding vs. funeral, you see. This point of interest comes up this week as we just witnessed longshot winners of the Gotham (Weyburn) and Tampa Bay Derby (Helium) on Saturday, and we’ll have to decide what to do with them next time on the Triple Crown trail.

Most horseplayers don’t trust longshot winners for the basic fact that they go against what the handicappers previously perceived them to be. No one likes to be wrong, especially in picking the horses. Is the wedding-funeral myth rooted in fact or grudge? Let’s see.

Data Points:

I crunched the numbers in the database for every Thoroughbred race in North America over the past 5 years, going back to Mar. 8, 2016. The study was for horses who won their most recent start at 15-1 or more odds, and how they performed in their next start when bet to lower prices. We looked at horses bet in their return to 10-1 or less, 8-1 or less, 6-1 or less, 5-1 or less, 4-1 or less, 3-1 or less and post-time favorites. We compared the performance of the wedding-to-funeral types with all horses of comparable odds no matter their previous results or odds.

Overall Findings:

15-1+ winners bet back to 10-1 or less in a return race won 16.3% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 10-1 or less won 19.8% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to 8-1 or less in a return race won 17.9% with a $.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 8-1 or less won 21.2% with a $.81 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to 6-1 or less in a return race won 21.0% with a $.84 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 6-1 or less won 23.7% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to 5-1 or less in a return race won 23.3% with a $.86 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 5-1 or less won 25.5% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to 4-1 or less in a return race won 26.0% with a $.86 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 4-1 or less won 27.8% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to 3-1 or less in a return race won 31.0% with a $.87 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses 3-1 or less won 31.7% with a $.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

15-1+ winners bet back to post-time favoritism in a return race won 37.6% with a $.95 ROI for every $1 bet.
All horses bet to post-time favoritism won 37.1% with a $.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings Verdict:

Longshot winners at 15-1 or more showed an equal or better ROI at every return price in comparison to all horses at that price. The difference was most significant with returnees bet to 5-1 or lower. While the win percentage of longshot winners trying to repeat was lower at all return price levels, the gap narrowed as the return price lowered. In other words: The harder they were bet in the return, the better they performed. With favorites, longshot return winners actually won more often than all favorites studied and had resoundingly strong ROI.

Bottom line:

The idea that you missed the wedding and should avoid the funeral is a statistical myth. In fact, those longshot winners next time out are as good – or better – of a bet than their competition. True, you’re not getting 15-1 this time, but off a winning race and given the performance data, you’re no longer looking at a 15-1 kind of horse in the new match-up. You’re betting horses off of today’s chance to win, not the past. Don’t get beat twice because of a grudge; keep an open mind in your new evaluation.

Additional Details:

You can go and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at the tracks you play most often to see if they fall in line with this study’s conclusions. I took a second dive by examining maidens coming off of 15-1 or more wins and meeting winners next out. They had an even stronger win % and ROI when bet down in the return at 5-1 or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Eve's Delight Was in too tough last time out with special weight company, but she's a better fit on the drop here. Something like the two-back run might do.
#2 Alhambra Palace Blinkers go on after the distant third in the mud here behind a runaway winner, and maybe she's better if she gets back on dry land today.
#6 Grayfully Finished behind Alhambra Palace in that common race, but she has a claim on this one as they both drop in class.
Race Summary Eve's Delight has inconsistent form, but most of it came with better groups than she's going to see tonight, and she's probably quick enough to find a decent spot early.

Delta Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Sixto Tough to love off the most recent form, but he owns some decent sprint running lines, and he's probably one of the few in here who can rate a bit and finish.
#5 Carbon Stryker He has been competitive with this kind in the past and comes out of a couple of TX-bred stakes races. Think his ceiling is high enough to win this.
#1 Adios Carlos He's the one to beat off the two easy wins to open the career, but he might have to work for this one as he draws the fence with a handful of other pace signed on outside of him.
Race Summary Sixto's best races have come when sprinting, and while this abbreviated 5f trip is sharper than what he has tried before, he has some finishing ability in a race lacking it.

Delta Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Em's Miss Prado In cheap on debut, but she was quick enough to earn a best of 15 work in the morning, and she is not going to have to be much of anything to land this.
#5 Slide The clear one to beat, but she might be a bit better going longer than this, and she's probably overbet with these.
#4 Line of Faith She seems like a decent fit with this kind here as she makes her 11th career start, and her form is darkened by races with better. Tough to trust off the layoff.
Race Summary Em's Miss Prado meets a suspect bunch with a default chalk in Slide -- get a good look at her on the track before the race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 BOOM BOOM BAY Pinned inside behind fast pace, found room in lane, edged clear.
#6 ALL TAYLOR MADE Led throughout in 8-horse qualifier, not much speed in this race.
#1 CRACKER BOX Can rally for minor awards at a price with rail draw.
Race Summary Boom Boom Bay seized the moment when three rivals went off stride early in the race. But she was trapped inside until the stretch and was pulling away late to solidify her upset run. Play a 2-ALL exacta.

Northfield Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#3 VINTAGE GRAND No match for runaway at odds-on, steps up in class.
#1 THIS TIME Bid to commanding lead from post 9 and got caught late.
#5 WORLD ON EDGE Miami Valley invader flopped as heavy favorite, can atone.
Race Summary Vintage Grand, second as the 1-to-9 favorite, can return a bigger dividend on his claim two starts ago. He won 10 times last year and gets a favorable post switch. Play 3-1 and 3-5 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#4 FEAR THE YANKEE In good form, good for second best lately.
#5 QUADRATIC BLUE CHIP Seeks fourth consecutive runaway victory.
#2 EMBRACE THE RUST Paced evenly at the Meadows, lures Merriman.
Race Summary Fear The Yankee chased runaway winners in her last two starts and finished a clear second. She was no match for Quadratic Blue Chip after the pace slowed in the middle half, but she's worth the price to try and turn the tables. Play a 4-5-ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Dr. Duke Comes off a terrific score in his first turf attempt; got to the lead and just kept going through fast fractions, and finished well.
#3 Rockstar Ro Got a perfect trip early, took over with authority and then was all out to hang on. He's capable of running well without the early lead.
#5 Field Day Has a win and two narrow losses in three turf tries; makes first local start after coming in from Fair Grounds.
Race Summary Dr. Duke was very sharp in getting to the lead and holding on last time and gets a front-running and ground-saving trip.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Sara Mia Had a special debut as she ran two turns on turf was never challenged; makes a significant step up but she probably had more in the tank in that first one. Worth a look.
#8 Big Bad Diva Comes in off an easy score in a race that came off the turf at Tampa; had good turf form going in and she's shown she is game in the stretch.
#1 Lullula Was up in time with a solid finish and was claimed for $50,000 by Maker; was good in both starts and will be well played.
Race Summary Sara Mia had a front-running score last time and it will up to others to keep her from running off; she's a threat to do that.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Lady Traveler Tries turf for the first time after a close second in the G3 Forward Gal; has tons of class and can successfully make the switch to grass.
#1 Traffic Lane Showed speed and then gave way in tough spots in her last two; back to turf, where she was a maiden winner. In close attendance throughout this one.
#7 Alwayz Late Closed with a rush and was a clear winner on turf last time; can be the one to benefit is the top contenders can't handle the distance or surface.
Race Summary Lady Traveler has been with outstanding fillies and was a sharp closing second in the Forward Gal. Should improve at two turns on turf.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Mar 10 '21, 6:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Minnesota vs Northwestern
Play on: Northwestern -110 at pinnacle

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Northwestern ML -110
The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats have had a late-season resurgence here and head into the Big Ten Tournament with confidence and momentum. They have gone 3-0 in their last 3 games overall, which includes an upset 67-59 road win at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are now 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall as injuries have decimated this team down the stretch. And 4 of those losses have come by double-digits. Minnesota is 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in all games played away from home this year. Take Northwestern.