Saturday 3/27/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:26 PM

Experts' Top 10 Prospects for Kentucky Derby

It’s Florida Derby Week, the 5-week marker on the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail. With the news that last week’s consensus No. 1 Life Is Good will miss the Triple Crown series, things have shaken up among the prospects.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their late-March Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We’ve included the projected next start for each horse in parentheses (subject to change).

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Greatest Honour (Florida Derby)
#3 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#7 Collaborate (Florida Derby)
#8 Prevalence (Wood, Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby)
#9 Rock Your World (Santa Anita Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Greatest Honour (Florida Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Spielberg (Florida Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Keepmeinmind (Arkansas Derby)
#9 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#10 Dream Shake (Santa Anita Derby)

John DeSantis

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#3 Greatest Honour (Florida Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Spielberg (Florida Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Roman Centurian (Santa Anita Derby or Wood Memorial)
#9 Highly Motivated (Wood Memorial)
#10 O Besos (Kentucky Derby)

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Greatest Honour (Florida Derby)
#4 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#5 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Proxy (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Prevalence (Wood, Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby)
#9 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#10 Hozier (Arkansas Derby or Santa Anita Derby)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:26 PM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Gulfstream Park Oaks

March 25, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$200,000 GRADE 2 GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS
Saturday, March 27, 2021

The Lead:
A 14-race program loaded with stakes will entice horseplayers Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The national attention will be on the finale, the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby, but shrewd handicappers looking at the multi-race wagers late in the card will be giving as much attention to the lead-ins. The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks in Race 12 is part of all of the late-day multi-race bets and appears to have a trustworthy key.

Field Depth:
None of the 7 entrants are graded stakes winners, though CRAZY BEAUTIFUL is Grade 1-placed and a listed stakes winner. COMPETITIVE SPEED similarly is a listed stakes winner who has placed at the Grade 2 level. CON LIMA also has won a listed stakes and is multiple Grade 3-placed. MILLEFEUILLE is Grade 2-placed.

Pace:
Rail speed CON LIMA looks loose and lonely up front with a short run to the first turn increasing her advantage. The others would have to be hustled faster than their comfort zone to keep up early, likely to their detriment.

Our Eyes:
The Forward Gal and Davona Dale typically are the lead-in races at the meet for the Gulfstream Park Oaks. But Forward Gal champ Zaajel opted for last week's Fair Grounds Oaks, where she beat only 1 rival while defeated 15 lengths. Wholebodemeister, third in the Forward Gal and 6-1/2 length upset winner at 52-1 in the Davona Dale, hasn't worked since. So the Gulfstream Park Oaks series finale doesn't bring its best to the ball...and what we've seen so far hasn't dazzled in the local division.

CRAZY BEAUTIFUL, second in the Davona Dale, may be a touch better around 1 turn than 2, owing to her miler's pedigree. But this track configuration with a sixteenth-pole finish line in play has been known to carry a runner a bit farther than the paper suggests. Her first start at 3 was a modest runner-up to a bomb of a price, and she doesn't appear to have any major advantage over the rest of these to take a short price.

CON LIMA has been aces on turf throughout the winter, and with Pletcher sending Zaajel out of town a week ago, becomes his Gulfstream Park Oaks player on the surface switch. She's got a dirt pedigree, and began her career on dirt in her first 4 starts. She's been first or second in all 8 career starts no matter the surface. The pace advantage looks absolutely real here, and leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. hasn't missed the mark often on these types this season.

MILLEFUEILLE and COMPETITIVE SPEED both surprised in the Davona Dale; the former for her poor performance while 3-1 odds, and the latter for her surprising third at 53-1. COMPETITIVE SPEED runs like a closing sprinter and her 1-turn mile middle-move last out came up flat late.

Others in the field include BOW WOW GIRL, a course and distance maiden breaker last out behind a dawdling pace; PENS STREET, fourth in the Davona Dale at 84-1; and LEN LO LADY, a maiden claiming graduate at 1-8 lifetime.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CON LIMA is 8-8 in the exacta and has the pace advantage.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BOW WOW GIRL has improved steadily and may sit a decent trip for a barn that is known to pop a big price in the exotics in big races.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$20 Exacta CON LIMA over BOW WOW GIRL. $40 Pick Three (joining Races 12,13,14) CON LIMA with ALWAYS SHOPPING & WAR LIKE GODDESS with GREATEST HONOUR ($80).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:27 PM

Saturday, March 27: Naomi Tukker's On-Site Dubai World Cup Picks

March 24, 2021

Racing analyst Naomi Tukker of the Maryland Jockey Club has been on the ground in the United Arab Emirates this week tracking the contenders for Saturday's Dubai World Cup Day program. She filed her selections for the main event after following the contenders trackside at Meydan Racecourse.

SATURDAY, MARCH 27, 2021
$12 MILLION, GRADE 1 DUBAI WORLD CUP // MEYDAN (RACE 9, 12:50PM ET) // 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)

My Top 4 Picks

#7 JESUS' TEAM
#11 SALUTE THE SOLDIER
#10 MYSTIC GUIDE
#9 MILITARY LAW

A wide-open renewal marks the 25th anniversary of the Dubai World Cup, and I am going strongly against the favorite Mystic Guide. Jesus' Team comes in here fresh, having skipped the Saudi Cup, for which he did receive an invite. Runner-up behind an on-song Knicks Go in the Pegasus World Cup, he has been touting himself strongly on the Meydan dirt track. Salute The Soldier has tactical speed that might take him to the lead in a field that doesn't seem to have a proper front-runner (except maybe Cappezano). Salute the Soldier won the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge without being under pressure, making me believe the short, 3-week turnaround won't hurt him too much. Favorite Mystic Guide posted a career-best figure in the Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn Park last out, but that was on a sloppy track and he'll be an underlay on the board based on that recent effort.

Saturday's Dubai Racing Lineup

7:45AM ET // Dubai Race 1 // Dubai Kahayla Classic
8:15AM ET // Dubai Race 2 // Godolphin Mile
8:50AM ET // Dubai Race 3 // Dubai Gold Cup
9:30AM ET // Dubai Race 4 // Al Quoz Sprint
10:05AM ET // Dubai Race 5 // UAE Derby
10:40AM ET // Dubai Race 6 // Dubai Golden Shaheen
11:30AM ET // Dubai Race 7 // Dubai Turf
12:10PM ET // Dubai Race 8 // Dubai Sheema Classic
12:50PM ET // Dubai Race 9 // Dubai World Cup

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:28 PM

Bob Baffert Makes Curlin Florida Derby Debut with Spielberg

March 23, 2021

From Gulfstream Park Press Release

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – A mix of talent, opportunity and timing has produced Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s first venture to Gulfstream Park for the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa.

Baffert, the most successful trainer in Triple Crown history, will make his debut Saturday in Gulfstream Park’s steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Spielberg, a chestnut son of Union Rags. Spielberg, who will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano in the 70th Florida Derby, won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on Dec. 19. In his most recent start, Spielberg finished second to Essential Quality, the 2020 2-year-old male champion, in the Southwest (G3) on Feb. 27 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.

Based in Southern California, Baffert has recorded some important victories in his 21 starts at Gulfstream Park. Twenty-nine years ago, he picked up his first Breeders’ Cup win with Thirty Slews in the Sprint (G1). More recently, he has won two runnings of the Pegasus World Cup (G1).

Again this year, Baffert has a deep lineup of Kentucky Derby prospects vying for qualifying points for the May 1 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. He said the Florida Derby, with its 170 qualifying points contested five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, fit his schedule. Though unbeaten San Felipe (G2) winner Life is Good will miss the Triple Crown while recovering from an injury that required surgery, Baffert has San Felipe runner-up Medina Spirit for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the first two finishers in the Rebel (G2), Concert Tour and Hozier, for the Arkansas Derby (G1).

He opted to send Spielberg to South Florida, where he will face Greatest Honour, whose three victories over the track include the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Holy Bull (G3).

“I have all these horses and I’m going to separate them out,” Baffert said. “[Spielberg] ran well at Arkansas. Broke horribly, came on and ran second. He wasn’t going to beat the winner. We’ll take him down there [to Florida]. See how he ships down there and see how he stacks up. The California horses, I think, are pretty strong. Maybe I can get lucky if I can win or run second. That would be nice. But it’s a tough task. We’ll give it a try.”

The partnership of SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC and Robert E. Masterson purchased Spielberg for $1 million as a yearling as the 2019 Keeneland September sale. He developed nicely and Baffert sent him out for his first race on Aug. 8 at Del Mar. After that second-place finish, Baffert moved him into Grade 1 company, where he was second in the Del Mar Futurity and third as the favorite in the American Pharoah. He stepped back into a maiden race to capture his first win by a neck and has been in graded stakes since. The Florida Derby will be his ninth career start, the most for any of the horses expected to be entered for the 1 1/8 miles race.

Spielberg had problems at the start of his last two races, which left him far off the early pace and compromised his chances. He was bumped at the start of the Robert Lewis (G3) on Jan. 30 and ended up fourth. In the Southwest under Martin Garcia, he was not prepared when the gates opened.

Repeating his mantra, what he typically offers in his pre-race analysis, Baffert said, “They’ve got to get away. To me, it’s all about getting away. They’ve got to get away from there.” Baffert did say that Spielberg ran well in the Southwest after the poor start.

Through the years while amassing a record-tying six wins in the Kentucky Derby and a record 16 victories in the Triple Crown, Baffert has won prep races in New York, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico. He selected the Florida Derby for Spielberg because of its place on the calendar five weeks ahead of the Kentucky Derby, rather than four-week options.

Spielberg’s sire, Union Rags, was third as the favorite in the 2012 Florida Derby. He went on to capture the Belmont Stakes (G1) and is one of the 60 winners of Triple Crown races who have competed in the Florida Derby.

According to Equibase statistics, Baffert has a 4-4-2 record in his 21 starts, all in stakes races, at Gulfstream Park and has earned $12,362,950 in purse money. Each of the victories was in a Grade 1 race. Baffert won with his first Gulfstream runner, Thirty Slews in the 1992 Breeders’ Cup, and with his his most recent starter, Mucho Gusto in the 2020 Pegasus World Cup. He also won the 2001 Donn Handicap with Captain Steve and the inaugural Pegasus World Cup with Arrogate.

Prior to Arrogate’s victory in 2017, the trainer’s first Gulfstream starter in 10 years, Baffert reflected on Thirty Slews’ victory. He said it was “just like a fairy tale race for me,” with the first Thoroughbred he had purchased – for $30,000 – as he transitioned from training Quarter Horses.

“When he hit the wire, I was up there in the box and I thought that I had reached just the Pinnacle of my career,” he said, laughing. “I thought, ‘Man, this is not going to get any better than this.’ I had just won a Breeders’ Cup Sprint. I was just jumping up and down.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:28 PM

Known Agenda Works Ahead of Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby

From Gulfstream Park Press Release

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – St. Elias Stable’s Known Agenda breezed five furlongs in 1:02.52 Saturday morning at Palm Beach Downs, tuning up for next Saturday’s $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale at Xalapa.

“I thought he went great. The first eighth was a little slow. He went off in like 14 (seconds) and went the last half in 48-and-1. He looked good and seemed happy,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “I’ve liked the way he’s been training since his last race.”

Known Agenda is coming off a sharp 11-length optional claiming allowance victory Feb. 26 at Gulfstream Park at the 1 1/18-mile distance of the Florida Derby. After getting away last and finishing fifth in the Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, the son of Curlin was equipped with blinkers for the first time for his last start.

Known Agenda holds the distinction of owning a decision over likely Florida Derby favorite Greatest Honour, whom he defeated by a head while graduating in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight race Nov. 8 at Aqueduct.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount.

At Gulfstream Park West, Papetu, who finished third in the Fountain of Youth following a very wide trip, breezed five furlongs in 1:12.80 Saturday morning in preparation for the Florida Derby. Sigiloso, a stablemate of Papetu, in the Antonio Sano barn, Siglioso was timed in 1:13.80 for five furlongs for the Florida Derby. Gustavo Delgado-trained Jirafales, who finished fifth in the Fountain of Youth following an awkward start, breezed five furlongs in 1:13.20.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:28 PM

Spielberg 'Doing Well' for Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby

From Gulfstream Park Press Release

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – Spielberg breezed five furlongs Sunday morning at Santa Anita Park while tuning up for a scheduled start at Gulfstream Park in Saturday’s $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the son of Union Rags was timed in 59.40 seconds, the second fastest clocking of 81 workouts recorded at the distance.

“He went well. He’s very workmanlike and he’s steady,” Baffert said. “He’s doing well.”

Spielberg is slated to make his third 2021 start in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby, which has produced the winners of 60 Triple Crown events.

In his 2021 debut, the Kentucky-bred colt stumbled at the start of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita before finishing fourth behind Baffert-trained winner Medina Spirit. He then finished second Feb. 27 in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park behind unbeaten Essential Quality.

Spielberg had a productive six-race juvenile campaign, in which he finished second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and third in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita before breaking his maiden in his fourth start. He went on to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) two starts later.

Javier Castellano has the mount on Spielberg, who is owned by SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC and Robert Masterson.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:29 PM

Florida Derby Post Draw Rapid Reaction

March 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Greatest Honour will start his bid for a historic sophomore sweep at Gulfstream Park from post 7 of 11, as post positions were drawn today for Saturday’s Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby, presented by Hill ‘n Dale Farm at Xalapa. The Shug McGaughey trainee will try to become the first horse to win the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, a series that has been contested since 1990.

The last horse to win the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby was Greatest Honour’s stable predecessor Orb in 2013, who would go on to win that year’s Kentucky Derby for McGaughey. Greatest Honour has been established as the 6-5 morning line favorite for the Florida Derby, a race that has produced 24 Kentucky Derby winners all-time, most of any national prep.

Florida Derby challengers include California invader Spielberg as trainer Bob Baffert looks for his sixth Triple Crown trail prep victory of 2021 and his first-ever Florida Derby trophy. Spielberg starts from a difficult post 10 under Javier Castellano. Known Agenda, a powerful allowance winner at the Championship Meet, begins from post 5 under leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. He’ll try to give trainer Todd Pletcher a record-padding sixth Florida Derby trophy.

The wildcards figure to be smashing maiden winner Collaborate (post 9) and unbeaten Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse), both making stakes debuts in the third career starts for both. That duo figures to be part of the early pace scenario so important to the late-running Greatest Honour’s late kick. Rail-drawn Nova Rags isn’t a committed front-runner, but has natural speed and should be near the pace. With the absence of Fountain of Youth pacemaker Drain the Clock, the Florida Derby shapes up with less certainly in terms of race shape.

2021 Curlin Florida Derby Field

1. Nova Rags (Junior Alvarado) 12-1
2. Quantum Leap (Miguel Vasquez) 20-1
3. Jirafales (Edgard Zayas) 30-1
4. Southern Passage (Corey Lanerie) 30-1
5. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 5-1
6. Sigiloso (Leonel Reyes) 30-1
7. Greatest Honour (Jose Ortiz) 6-5
8. Soup and Sandwich (John Velazquez) 20-1
9. Collaborate (Tyler Gaffalione) 6-1
10. Spielberg (Javier Castellano) 4-1
11. Papetu (Emisael Jaramillo) 15-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:29 PM

Dubai World Cup Post Draw Reaction

March 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A capacity field of 14 entered for Saturday’s 25th edition of the $12 million Dubai World Cup, including a quartet of American-based runners. The marquee, mile and one-quarter dirt contest tops a 9-race card simulcast internationally. Post time for the first race will be 7:45 a.m. ET with the Dubai World Cup slated for 12:50 p.m. ET.

Mystic Guide, winner of last month’s Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn and last summer’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, should go favored from post 6. He’s being offered in the international books around 5-2 odds in advance of the race. His 6-length Razorback romp put the Godolphin color-bearer on the fast track to Meydan, the track owned by his connections. He’ll compete under the flag of the United Arab Emirates while racing for New Orleans-based trainer Mike Stidham.

America’s other entrants include 2020 Grade 1 Preakness Stakes third-place finisher and 2021 Pegasus World Cup runner-up Jesus’ Team (post 9); Grade 2 Charles Town Classic champ and Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup fourth-place finisher Sleepy Eyes Todd (post 10); and Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes winner Title Ready (post 4).

2021 Dubai World Cup Field

1. Great Scot
2. Hypothetical
3. Chuwa Wizard
4. Title Ready
5. Military Law
6. Mystic Guide
7. Capezzano
8. The Great Collection
9. Jesus' Team
10. Sleepy Eyes Todd
11. Salute the Soldier
12. Magny Cours
13. Ajuste Fiscal
14. Gifts of Gold

The Meydan main track is a left-handed course like the US with just under a quarter-mile run into the clubhouse turn from the start, so starting positions should not be of major consequence.

None of the American entrants possess the kind of world-class early speed on dirt synonymous with US racing on the world stage. Sleepy Eyes Todd likely will show the most early pace interest, but is not the type of run-them-off-their-feet speed that often dissuades the international runners when faced with American dirt horses. That said, the Dubai World Cup could open up to the world cast. Note in its previous 24 runnings, US-based horses own 12 wins, the same total for the world challengers.

The international cast sprung wide open when the connections of Saudi Cup winner Mishriff decided to return to turf in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Military Law, sixth in the Saudi Cup and winner of the Maktoum Challenge Round 1 at Meydan in January, is among the global leading contenders around 5-1 with the Bookmakers in early betting. He’ll break from post 5 with favorite Mystic Guide just to his outside. German-bred Salute the Solider, winner of the Maktoum Challenge Rounds 2 and 3, leaves from post 11. He’s being offered anywhere from 4-1 to 8-1 with the Bookmakers and it will be interesting to see how his price shifts as the week progresses.

Americans competing on the undercard include last year’s US Champion Turf Male Channel Maker in the Dubai Sheema Classic; Yaupon, Wildman Jack and Zenden in the Dubai Golden Shaheen for dirt sprinters; Ambivalent and Lugamo in the UAE Derby; Extravagant Kid, Cowan and True Valour in the Al Quoz Sprint on grass; and the trio of Avant Garde, Snapper Sinclair and Parsimony in the Godolphin Mile on dirt.

1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a $10 money-back guarantee promotion on all of the Dubai World Cup Day races from Meydan. Get up to $10 refunded on any win wager in any of those races if your selection finishes second or third. See the 1/ST BET app and Xpressbet.com for details.

Saturday’s Meydan schedule for Dubai World Cup Day (times US eastern)

o 7:45AM ET // Dubai Race 1 // Dubai Kahayla Classic
o 8:15AM ET // Dubai Race 2 // Godolphin Mile
o 8:50AM ET // Dubai Race 3 // Dubai Gold Cup
o 9:30AM ET // Dubai Race 4 // Al Quoz Sprint
o 10:05AM ET // Dubai Race 5 // UAE Derby
o 10:40AM ET // Dubai Race 6 // Dubai Golden Shaheen
o 11:30AM ET // Dubai Race 7 // Dubai Turf
o 12:10PM ET // Dubai Race 8 // Dubai Sheema Classic
o 12:50PM ET // Dubai Race 9 // Dubai World Cup

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:30 PM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: Samsung Lions at LG Twins - KBO Spring game
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: March 27, 2021 12AM EDT
Play: LG Twins -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:31 PM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes - Japanese Baseball
Sport/League: BSB
Date/Time: March 27, 2021 1AM EDT
Play: Home Total Over 3.5 (-145)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:33 PM

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (625) Oregon State at (626) Loyola Chicago
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 27, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: 1H Total Under 57.5 (-110)
FREE PLAY: OREGON ST/LOYOLA CHICAGO UNDER 57.5
I expect this game to start out slow as both teams try to figure out the others tenacious defense. Add in the nerves that go with making it to the Sweet 16 and I see this one as a very low scoring 1st half.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-26-2021, 10:36 PM

Tony Mejia

Event: (631) Mississippi State at (632) Louisiana Tech
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 27, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Under 136.5 (-110)
Mississippi State's Bulldogs look to move into the NIT championship game by locking down on the defensive end, a recipe they utilized to be competitive in a top-heavy SEC. Louisiana Tech's Bulldogs moved on by defeating the other top team in C-USA this season, Western Kentucky's Hilltoppers, and have experience getting their offense on track against top shot blockers like one they'll see in senior Abdul Ado. Expect a race to 65 in this showdown to identify a finalist to square off with the winner of the other semifinal pitting No. 1 seeds Memphis and Colorado State. Ride the under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2021, 06:08 AM

Curlin Florida Derby Analysis & Selections

March 25, 2021 | By Johnny D

Each week on the Kentucky Derby trail things get ‘interestinger’ and ‘interestinger.’

March 13, the Bob Baffert-trained Concert Tour dominated the Rebel Stakes and leapfrogged nearly everyone else toward the Pinnacle of Kentucky Derby top ten lists. For most, the colt’s stock ranked just below that of defending 2-year-old champ Essential Quality and San Felipe Stakes winner Life is Good. One week later, Life is Good, actual heavy favorite in early wagering for the Kentucky Derby, was removed from consideration for the race after post workout distress signaled a small chip in his left-hind ankle. As Baffert scratched one first team star from his Kentucky Derby starting lineup, the defection, ironically, moved Concert Tour, another Baffert runner, one step closer to roses in May. We also learned this week, according to DRF.com’s Jay Privman, that Baffert’s Medina Spirit had undergone an operation for a ‘slightly entrapped epiglottis.’ He’ll start next in the Santa Anita Derby.

Saturday, Hot Rod Charlie, another Southern California-based soph, cemented a position in the Kentucky Derby starting gate with a strong victory in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby. That score, along with his runner-up effort in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile in November at 95-1 odds, and a close third-place finish in the Gr. 3 Robert B. Lewis vault him to the top of of Derby hopefuls with 110 Louisville starting gate points. According to connections, Hot Rod Charlie will use the six weeks between now and the first Saturday in May to train up to the race.

Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby runner-up Midnight Bourbon, who’s been in the hunt in all three preps in that neck of the woods, is second overall in Kentucky Derby points with 66 and also will train up to the Louisville tussle.

A couple of disappointing efforts in the Louisiana Derby from favorite Mandaloun and Proxy leave connections (and bettors) wondering ‘what happened?’. No answers, so far. Mandaloun (52 Derby points) could be headed to the Gr. 1 Lexington at Keeneland and Proxy’s (34) future is undetermined at this writing.

O Besos, a nearly 30-1 shot that was touted in this space as a Louisiana Derby exotics threat, finished third in that race and now has 25 points toward a start in the Kentucky Derby. His connections will wait and hope that the total is enough to make the starting gate.

This week, marquee action occurs at Gulfstream Park where the third-ranked earner of Kentucky Derby points Greatest Honour (60) is expected to continue local domination in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby. He’s looked strong in winning three Gulfstream races this winter—a Maiden Special Weight race and two stakes—and his trainer, Hall-of-Fame resident Shug McGaughey, has been brimming with confidence throughout the winter. It should be noted that no horse has ever accomplished what Greatest Honour is attempting—victory in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull, Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth and Gr. 1 Florida Derby.

One interesting Gr. 1 Florida Derby invader is the Bob Baffert-trained Spielberg from California. He’s been competitive with top-ranked 2-year-olds in SoCal and finished second to the consensus number one sophomore Essential Quality last out in the Gr. 3 Southwest at Oaklawn over a sloppy track.

The Gr. 2 Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) is on tap at Turfway Park. The race usually doesn’t produce a serious Kentucky Derby threat, but it offers as many qualifying points (100-40-20-10) toward starting in the Derby as races like the Gr. 1 Florida, Gr. 1 Santa Anita and Gr. 1 Arkansas Derbies. Go figure. The race is decided over an ‘All Weather’ artificial surface and sometimes that form doesn’t transfer seamlessly to dirt. Nevertheless, the winner and the runner-up probably will earn enough points to start in the Kentucky Derby.

The Gr. 1 UAE Derby also is Saturday and that race awards a similar total of 170 points towards starting gate berths in the Kentucky Derby. No horse has successfully made the transition from Dubai to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby, but we suppose it could happen…someday…somehow. Because of the amount of travel involved (among other issues), when it does, it will be an amazing accomplishment.

Speaking of amazing accomplishments…it also should be noted that the one mile and one-eighth Fukurya will be contested Saturday at Nakayama Racecourse in Japan. That’s the final Kentucky Derby qualifying race in that country and will offer a total of 68 points to the first four finishers. The next Japanese 3-year-old to successfully ship to win the Kentucky Derby will be the first. However, we suppose it could happen…someday…somehow.

Below is one man’s humble handicapping opinion regarding starters in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby:

GULFSTREAM PARK (RACE 14, 6:35PM ET) // CURLIN FLORIDA DERBY (G1, $750K)
Kentucky Derby Points: 100-40-20-10

1. NOVA RAGS (MOTT/ALVARADO) - 12/1

A maiden winner first out, this son of Union Rags has appeared in three stakes races since—Gr. 3 Nashua, Pasco and Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis. He won the shortest of the three, the seven-furlong Pasco and was second, one length back at 8-1, in the one mile and one-sixteenth Gr. 3 Davis after a perfect stalking trip and rail run off the turn. Like Shug McGaughey, trainer of Florida Derby favorite #7 Greatest Honour, fellow Hall-of-Famer trainer Bill Mott takes his time with young horses and Nova Rags will need to do better to win this. He has a bit of early pace and will use his rail draw to occupy prime early real estate. Exotics.

2. QUANTUM LEAP (WILKES/VASQUEZ) - 20/1

It took this fellow three starts to break his maiden, but he did it the first time he ventured around two turns last out going one-mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream Park. He’s by Pioneerof the Nile and is taking a big step up in class. Pass.

3. JIRAFALES (DELGADO/ZAYAS) - 30/1

Beaten double digits by favored #7 Greatest Honour in both the Gr. 3 Holy Bull and the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth, this son of Social Inclusion really would need to turn the battleship around in a hurry to make noise in here. FYI…he was 106-1 odds in the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth and outran those massive odds to finish fifth beaten 10 lengths. He’ll be a similar large number in here. Pass.

4. SOUTHERN PASSAGE (ROMANS/LANERIE) - 30/1

He’s made eight career starts, mostly Maiden Special Weight and Maiden Claiming races. Last out he was second, beaten three lengths by promising 3-year-old Prevalence. He was 32-1 in that $75k/Optional Claiming race. These are much tougher. He is fit, though, because that one-mile race was March 11. Pass.

5. KNOWN AGENDA (PLETCHER/ORTIZ JR.) - 5/1

This son of Curlin snapped his maiden by finishing a head in front of favorite #7 Greatest Honour going one mile and one-eighth at Aqueduct in November. While #7 Greatest Honour hasn’t lost since, Known Agenda has had a bit of an in-and-out career. Next out, off his maiden score, Known Agenda finished a well-beaten third in the Gr. 2 Remsen over a sloppy Aqueduct track. Away December until February, he returned as favorite in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. Things didn’t go well early in the race—he didn’t leave the gate running and was between horses and shuffled a bit approaching the first turn. That left him well behind the early leaders. He closed some ground much too late. Trainer Todd Pletcher then added blinkers and sent him north to Aqueduct for a confidence-boosting Allowance/Optional $75k Claiming race romp by 11 lengths. He’s certainly fit and back on the winning track but he’s yet to display the necessary development that would make him a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat. Exotics.

6. SIGILIOSO (SANO/REYES) - 30/1

Fresh off a couple of even efforts in a pair of turf stakes—fourth in the Gr. 3 Kitten’s Joy and fifth in the Listed Palm Beach—this son of Khozan returns to dirt where he made the first start of his career in a state-bred Maiden $40k claiming race. Pass.

7. GREATEST HONOUR (MCGAUGHEY/ORTIZ) - 6/5

It took this son of Tapit four races to break maiden but that’s understandable. Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey famously takes time with young horses and allows them to fully mature. Greatest Honour’s first two races were at seven furlongs and he finished third in each, displaying talent and a propensity for longer distances. In his third start, going one mile and one-eighth at Aqueduct, he and #5 Known Agenda hooked up in a furious stretch battle 21 lengths clear of Overtook in third. #5 Known Agenda got the better of Greatest Honour that afternoon by a head, but Greatest Honour is unbeaten in three starts since— a Maiden, Gr. 3 Holy Bull and Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth—all at Gulfstream. Overtook returned to break maiden next out and then finished second in the Withers. Tapit offspring are known for having long-fuses and require distance for their best. Greatest Honour races from well off the pace and has looked strong in the lane even when the early pace hasn’t favored his closing style. His development at Gulfstream closely mirrors that of Kentucky Derby winner Orb, also trained by McGaughey. He’s the one to beat in here but, as was pointed out by Todd Sidor in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary, “There have been 14 Florida Derby winners who have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and 15 who have finished first in the race including Maximum Security’s 2019 disqualification. That’s a better record any other prep race. But none have ever managed to sweep the Gulfstream Park preps, including the G3 Holy Bull Stakes, the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby.” Despite that history, Greatest Honour is the Most Likely Winner.

8. SOUP AND SANDWICH (CASSE/VELAZQUEZ) - 20/1

Unbeaten in two starts (with an asterisk), this homebred son of Into Mischief won a state-bred Maiden Special Weight sprint first out at Gulfstream by more than seven lengths. That led to romping score by nearly three lengths at Tampa Bay Downs going one mile and 40 yards. And that’s where the asterisk comes in. In that allowance win he defeated just two other foes for what amounted to a paid workout. He raced greenly through the stretch, lugging in and nearly brushing the rail as he virtually galloped home in front. He’s got some talent but it’s not clear exactly how much. And he certainly needs to concentrate more on his work. Soup and Sandwich is a bit of a wild card in here; difficult to dismiss but tough to embrace. He’s got some pace, likes the track, is unbeaten (with an asterisk), has solid connections and room to improve…hmmm. Think we’ll pass on him for now but he could have a future down the road. Pass.

9. COLLABORATE (JOSEPH JR/GAFFALIONE) - 6/1

A very impressive, more-than-12-length maiden mile winner in his second start last out at Gulfstream, this son of Into Mischief has loads of talent. As favorite in his first start going six furlongs over a sloppy track, he broke a step slow to be well back in the field of 12 and then rallied to lose by less than two lengths. That effort suggests a future ‘off’ track won’t bother him. The hurdle he desperately needs to clear in here is one of experience because he has little of that. Talent can overcome much but he’s facing a group with at-least equal ability AND more experience. He might enjoy a helpful advantage, though, because this race appears void of much early speed. He could take them a long way on the front end. It’s an ambitious spot but this is the material upsets are made of. Exotics/Win Chance.

10. SPIELBERG (BAFFERT/CASTELLANO) - 4/1

Trainer Bob Baffert has a barn full of talented runners. Even though he recently lost Life is Good to injury, he’s still buried under an abundance of rich 3-year-old talent. Forced to disperse capable performers nationwide in an attempt to keep them separated, Baffert dispatches Spielberg to Florida from California, an unusual move for this trainer. Come Pegasus World Cup time, Gulfstream Park has been a prime target for Baffert’s older horses, but it hasn’t been a sophomore stop on previous Baffert Triple Crown trails. Spielberg brings experience to the race with eight starts—two wins, three seconds and one third. He won a maiden race at Del Mar AFTER he was both second in the Gr. 1 Del Mar Futurity and third in the Gr. 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita. Subsequently, he won the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and most recently finished second in the Gr. 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park after a lousy start over a sloppy track. He was shifting about in the gate just before it opened, and he was left several lengths behind the field. He then raced wide throughout and finally loomed to threaten race favorite and Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old champ Essential Quality in the stretch. It was a huge performance. It’s critical Spielberg breaks alertly this time, especially from the 10-hole going one mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream. This colt’s a bit unlike most Baffert sophomores in that he usually comes from a bit off the pace. A clean break may be all Spielberg needs to affirm that he’s one of the top 3-year-olds in the nation. Exotics/Win Chance.

11. PAPETU (SANO/JARAMILLO) - 15/1

This son of Dialed In has been pitched against some mighty powerful lineups—four of his last five races have come against graded stakes competition, including starts in the Gr. 1 Hopeful, Gr. 2 Saratoga Special, Gr. 3 Holy Bull and Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth. In the latter two races he chased #7 Greatest Honour home—more than 10 lengths and just over three lengths behind, respectively. He moved prematurely in the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth and passed #7 Greatest Honour on the turn. In the end, though, #7 Greatest Honour absolutely breezed by Papetu for the win. Despite winning the first two races of his career in virtually wire-to-wire fashion going five and one-half furlongs, he’s shown little speed in recent races, coming from last to be third in the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth. FYI…he was listed at contender’s odds of 5.50 to 1 in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull against #7 Greatest Honour. Exotics.

BOTTOM LINE:

#7 Greatest Honour is the one to beat. He’s got an amazing stride that seems to grow with distance. He will be a short price to do something that’s never been done before and that’s not usually a smart way to bet.

#10 Spielberg ran an awesome race in the Gr. 3 Southwest and a clean break coupled with a similar effort could make him a thorn in the favorite’s side Saturday. He’s the most likely to upset the top choice.

#9 Collaborate has speed and talent. That’s a dangerous combination. His lack of experience could count against him but if left alone early Saturday, he’s got a chance to upset the applecart at a decent price.

$5 Trifecta ($40)
1st: #7
2nd: #9, #10
3rd: #1, #5, #9, #10, #11

$2 Trifecta ($16)
1st: #10
2nd: #7, #9
3rd: #1, #5, #7, #9, #11

$1 Trifecta ($8)
1st: #9
2nd: #7, #10
3rd: #1, #5, #7, #10, #11

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2021, 06:09 AM

Jon White's Florida Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks Selections

March 24, 2021 | By Jon White

I grew up in Spokane, Wash. Known as the Lilac City, Spokane once was the home of Playfair Race Course, where Thoroughbreds raced for decades until it closed for good in 2000.

On Monday, Spokane’s Gonzaga University basketball team reached the Sweet 16 in March Madness when defeating Oklahoma by 16 points (87-71). It was the Zags’ 32nd consecutive win. It was also Gonzaga’s NCAA-record 25th straight victory by double digits.

Gonzaga now has made it into the Sweet 16 in six straight NCAA Tournaments, extending the longest such streak in college basketball.

Do you remember how excruciatingly long the 37-year Triple Crown drought between Affirmed and America Pharoah seemed?

Well, Gonzaga is seeking to end an even longer drought. In its quest for college basketball immortality, Gonzaga is attempting to become the first undefeated NCAA men’s basketball champion since Indiana 45 years ago.

Rebounding is, of course, very important in basketball. I will be trying to rebound myself this week when it comes to my selections for races in this country offering Kentucky Derby points.

Of the 14 such races, I have picked the winner in eight of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00
03-06-21 Gotham (Freedom Fighter), finished 4th
03-06-21 Tampa Bay Derby (Hidden Stash), finished 2nd
03-06-21 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good, WON, $3.00
03-13-21 Rebel Stakes, Concert Tour, WON, $5.40
03-20-21 Louisiana Derby, Proxy, finished 4th

Proxy was my top pick in last Saturday’s Grade II Louisiana Derby. He raced with blinkers for the first time. I thought that might put him in the winner’s circle. It didn’t.

Now I’m hoping to bounce back.

Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby and Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks are the two U.S. races this week in which 100-40-20-10 points are up for grabs toward a starting berth in the 147th running of the Grade I Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses, which has a purse of $3 million, will be run at its traditional 1 1/4-mile distance on May 1.

My selections for the Florida Derby are below:

1. Spielberg
2. Known Agenda
3. Greatest Honour
4. Collaborate

I admit that I probably should be put in one of those jackets with the sleeves in the back by not making Greatest Honour my top pick. It seems like just about everybody thinks he’s going to win. He no doubt will be a heavy favorite. Will I be surprised if he wins? No. Do I think he is vulnerable and worth trying to beat at a short price in the betting? Yes, I do.

As noted earlier, Greatest Honour was my top pick in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull and 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth. He won both times.

But then why in the heck isn’t Greatest Honour my top pick again this time, especially since the stretch-runner figures to appreciate the longer 1 1/8-mile trip when facing 10 opponents in the Florida Derby?

Greatest Honour won the Fountain of Youth going away by 1 1/4 lengths. But I did not like the way jockey Jose Ortiz was getting after Greatest Honour so much coming into the stretch in the Fountain of Youth. Granted, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt did finally get going and overtook Drain the Clock in the final sixteenth.

But to me, Drain the Clock was going backward toward the end of the race more than Greatest Honour was going forward. I think Drain the Clock is a very nice colt, but he was racing farther than seven furlongs for the first time in the Fountain of Youth. Drain the Clock is scheduled to run in a shorter race around one turn next time in Aqueduct’s Grade III Bay Shore Stakes at seven furlongs on April 3. That makes perfect sense.

The way I see it, while the 1 1/8 miles should help Greatest Honour this Saturday, he also must face tougher competition this time.

Another reason I’m not going with Greatest Honour in the Florida Derby is his top Beyer so far is an 89, the figure he recorded in both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth.

Furthermore, Greatest Honour’s Beyer Speed Figure for the Fountain of Youth was “originally posted as an anemic 83,” Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote. It was “upgraded on overnight review to 89, equal to the career-best Greatest Honour earned in the Holy Bull.”

In other words, regarding his Beyer Speed Figures, Greatest Honour is not exactly setting the bar real high for those trying to knock him off this Saturday.

Like a surfer riding a wave, I’m going to ride a recent trend by making Spielberg my top selection in the Florida Derby.

Two weeks ago, Southern California-based Concert Tour invaded Oaklawn Park and won the Grade II Rebel Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Last Saturday, SoCal-based Hot Rod Charlie ventured to New Orleans and won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Louisiana Derby by two lengths.

Will SoCal-based Spielberg travel across the country and capture the Florida Derby? Maybe. Or maybe not. I am saying maybe not because, quite frankly, Spielberg is far from trustworthy. He has had an up-and-down career up to this point.

Despite Spielberg’s unreliability, I’m going to stick with him as my top pick. I do believe that his runner-up performance in Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes on a sloppy track Feb. 27 gives him a license to defeat Greatest Honour this Saturday.

To be perfectly candid, after Spielberg drew post 10 in the Florida Derby, I was tempted to go elsewhere for my top pick. Post 10 is not good in a 1 1/8-mile race at Gulfstream. It’s likely to be especially problematic if Spielberg does not get off to a good start.

But I am going to stick with Spielberg as my Florida Derby pick despite the unenviable post position.

In the Southwest, Spielberg was off poorly and raced wide. Nevertheless, he ran well in defeat to finish second, 4 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality, the undefeated Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2020.

While Greatest Honour’s Beyer Speed Figures have left something to be desired, he did receive an excellent Thoro-Graph number of 1 in both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. In terms of a Thoro-Graph number, the lower it is the better. This, of course, is the opposite of Beyer Speed Figures.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

But Thoro-Graph numbers also suggest that Spielberg is capable of defeating Greatest Honour this Saturday. Spielberg’s Thoro-Graph number in the Southwest was a 1, which matches Greatest Honour’s career-best Thoro-Graph number to date.

It also helps Spielberg this Saturday that Baffert trains the Kentucky-bred Union Rags colt. Whenever Baffert ships a horse out of Southern California, you had better beware. Baffert’s record when doing this is nothing less than stellar.

Spielberg will be the first horse Baffert has ever run in the Florida Derby.

My feeling is, why not take a shot this Saturday with Spielberg (despite post 10) when he unquestionably will be a much better price in the wagering than Greatest Honour? Greatest Honour is the 6-5 morning-line favorite. Spielberg is 4-1.

As for Known Agenda, who is 5-1 on the Florida Derby morning line, do I think he also can possibly beat Greatest Honour this Saturday? I do. After all, Known Agenda has already defeated him.

Known Agenda and Greatest Honour clashed in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Aqueduct last Nov. 8. Known Agenda won by a head. Greatest Honour finished second, a whopping 21 lengths in front of third-place Overtook.

Overtook is no bum, either. Overtook finished second in the Grade III Withers Stakes at the Big A on Feb. 6. Risk Taking won the Withers. The next scheduled start for both Risk Taking and Overtook is Aqueduct’s Grade II Wood Memorial on April 3.

Todd Pletcher, whose induction into the Hall of Fame this year appears to be a slam-dunk, trains both Known Agenda and Overtook.

I might be making a mistake by not making Collaborate my top pick in the Florida Derby. He is coming off a dazzling 12 1/2-length win in a one-mile Gulfstream maiden race on Feb. 21 after finishing fifth in the slop when unveiled in a maiden sprint there on Feb. 6. Joseph Saffie Jr. trains the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.

There are three main reasons that ultimately kept me from not picking Collaborate higher than fourth in the Florida Derby. First, he must run against tougher foes this time. Second, he has just two races under his belt. And third, he is being asked to go farther than a mile for the first time. But there is no question that his maiden victory makes him very, very scary Saturday.

By the way, yet another reason I am not making Greatest Honour my top pick in the Florida Derby is he will be trying to achieve something that has never been done before. No horse has ever swept the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.

But I will say that a huge plus for Greatest Honour in his bid to sweep these three Gulfstream races is Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Don’t forget, if not for Sunday Silence, the McGaughey-trained Easy Goer undoubtedly would have swept the Triple Crown in 1989.

JEFF RUBY STEAKS

In Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, like the Florida Derby, I am going with a Southern California shipper. My top pick is the O’Neill-trained Hockey Dad.

After finishing fifth when unveiled Dec. 27 in a Santa Anita maiden contest on the dirt, Hockey Dad has reeled off three consecutive wins. The California-bred Nyquist colt is two for two on the turf. The Jeff Ruby Steaks, which has 12 entrants, will be contested on a synthetic surface. Runners who do well on the turf often also do well when running on synthetic footing.

My selections for the Jeff Ruby Steaks are below:

1. Hockey Dad
2. Gretzky the Great
3. Hush of a Storm
4. Tarantino

Doesn’t an exacta box of Hockey Dad and Gretzky the Great seem like an obvious hunch bet?

Hush of a Storm and Gretzky the Great finished first and third, respectively, in Turfway’s John Battaglia Memorial on Feb. 26. It’s to their benefit that they have experience racing on Turfway’s synthetic surface.

Tarantino finished second in the Holy Bull and fourth in the Fountain of Youth on the dirt at Gulfstream. He will be competing on synthetic footing for the first time this Saturday.

This race’s name, the Jeff Ruby Steaks, certainly is a cute play on words. (Technically, it’s the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, but who is going to say or write that?)

Probably no race in the world has had more different names than this one. The following is what I once found in terms of various names for what began in 1972 as the Spiral Stakes at Latonia (before the track changed its name to Turfway Park in 1986):

1972-1981 Spiral Stakes
1982-1983 Jim Beam Spiral Stakes
1984-1998 Jim Beam Stakes
1999 Galleryfurniture.com Stakes
2000-2001 Turfway Spiral Stakes
2002 Lane’s End Spiral Stakes
2003-2010 Lane’s End Stakes
2011-2012 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes
2013-2016 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes
2017-2021 Jeff Ruby Steaks

LIFE IS GOOD INJURED, OFF KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

News spreads faster these days than ever before. It was not long after Life Is Good’s excellent six-furlong workout in a bullet 1:11.40 at Santa Anita last Saturday morning that word spread that he had not come out of the drill in good order.

While cooling out, Life Is Good took a couple of funny steps, according to Baffert. That’s when it was realized something was bothering the colt in a hind leg. Diagnostics disclosed that Life Is Good has a very small chip in his left-hind ankle. The highly respected Dr. Larry Bramlage is scheduled to perform surgery on the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt Friday at the Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Kentucky.

Life Is Good is expected to be out of commission for 60 days or so following the surgery. On Mike Willman’s ESPN 830 radio show Sunday morning, he asked Baffert if the Breeders’ Cup in November at Del Mar is an unrealistic objective at this point for Life Is Good.

“He’ll be ready for that,” Baffert said.

The significance that Life Is Good now is sidelined is reflected by the fact that he had closed as a strong 2-1 favorite in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool that closed on March 7.

Life Is Good, undefeated in three career starts, was going to be an overwhelming favorite in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 3. He won Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes by three-quarters of a length on Jan. 3 in his 2021 debut. Life Is Good then trounced his opponents on March 6 in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes, which he won by eight lengths despite drifting out badly in the lane.

According to Baffert, the Santa Anita Derby is next for Medina Spirit, a Florida-bred Protonicus colt. If not for Life Is Good, Medina Spirit would be undefeated in four lifetime starts.

In between runner-up efforts to Life Is Good in the Sham and San Felipe, Medina Spirit won Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30.

Hot Rod Charlie, who resides at Doug O’Neill’s Santa Anita barn, finished a close third in the Lewis, losing by just a head. The Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt subsequently won last Saturday’s Louisiana Derby.

In Hot Rod Charlie’s final 2020 start, he finished second, three-quarters of a length behind Essential Quality, in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.

Essential Quality had a splendid workout last Saturday at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt, trained by Brad Cox, drilled five furlongs in a bullet :59.00. It was the best of 25 works at the distance.

Next for Essential Quality is Keeneland’s Grade II Blue Grass Stakes on April 3.

Now that Life is Good is sidelined, Essential Quality retakes the top spot in my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after being No. 2 last week.

In the wake of Hot Rod Charlie’s Louisiana Derby triumph at odds of 5-2, he vaults all the way up to No. 3 on my Top 10 this week after being No. 7 last week.

Hot Rod Charlie’s trainer has two Kentucky Derby wins to his credit. O’Neill won it with I’ll Have Another in 2012 and with Nyquist in 2016.

I am not crazy that Hot Rod Charlie will have six weeks between the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby. But at least that gap is shorter than the seven weeks he had between the Lewis and Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby shows that he can run a big race with at least six weeks between races.

I do like it that Hot Rod Charlie goes into the Kentucky Derby having won a race farther than 1 1/8 miles.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Concert Tour
3. Hot Rod Charlie
4. Greatest Honour
5. Medina Spirt
6. Spielberg
7. Midnight Bourbon
8. Keepmeinmind
9. Risk Taking
10. Dream Shake

Also exiting my Top 10 this week are Mandaloun and Proxy. Mandaloun was No. 5 last week, while Proxy was No. 10.

Mandaloun ran a clunker in the Louisiana Derby. Sent away as the 13-10 favorite, he finished sixth without an apparent excuse. Proxy ran fourth in that race at odds of 3-1.

Dream Shake is a newcomer to my Top 10 this week.

Many seem to be in love with Prevalence in Florida. Trained by Brendan Walsh, the Kentucky-bred colt is two for two while racing at Gulfstream. Prevalence has recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 87, then 83.

Dream Shake has started twice. His Beyers have been 96, then 91. The Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt, conditioned by Peter Eurton, registered a sparkling 4 1/4-length win in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita on Feb. 7. And then, with just that one sprint under his belt, he finished third in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. He runs next in the Santa Anita Derby.

Look out for Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby. The $650,000 auction purchase is two for two. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt will be switching to the dirt following back-to-back victories on the grass. Most recently, he generated a powerful stretch kick to win Santa Anita’s one-mile Pasadena Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths on Feb. 27.

Candy Ride in 2003 broke the track record when he won Del Mar’s 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic on the dirt in 1:59.11. The mark still stands all these years later. In the Pacific Classic, Candy Ride drilled Prevalence’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro, who had to settle for second.

Empire Maker, who is the sire of Rock Your World’s dam, won the Belmont Stakes on the dirt the same year that Candy Ride was victorious in the Pacific Classic.

It will not surprise me if it turns out that Rock Your World is effective on the dirt.

CHECKING IN WITH ODDSCHECKER

Oddschecker.com lists average prices with British Bookmakers for Kentucky Derby candidates. Listed at 25-1 and lower are:

4-1 Concert Tour
7-1 Essential Quality
10-1 Greatest Honour
12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
16-1 Medina Spirit
16-1 Prevalence
20-1 Risk Taking
25-1 Caddo River
25-1 Collaborate
25-1 Crowded Trade
25-1 Helium
25-1 Midnight Bourbon
25-1 Rock Your World
25-1 Weyburn

CURRENT STRIKES SITUATION

My Derby Strikes System (DSS) consists of eight categories developed to try and ascertain a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in the one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are tied to the Kentucky Derby being run in May. Consequently, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

Now that the Kentucky Derby is returning to its traditional spot on the calendar this year, the DSS is back.

According to the DSS, going back to 1973 and excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, the vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.

Since 1973 (again excluding 2020), 39 out of the Kentucky Derby winners (81%) have had zero strikes or one strike, while just seven have had two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

It is not until a horse’s next race will be the Kentucky Derby that a horse’s number of strikes can be determined.

These are the strikes for six current candidates for this year’s Kentucky Derby who are scheduled to make their next start in that race:

ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE

Helium (Category 5)
Hot Rod Charlie (Category 4)
Mandaloun (Category 4)
Midnight Bourbon (Category 4)

TWO STRIKES

O Besos (Categories 2 and 3)

FOUR STRIKES

Proxy (Categories (2, 3, 4 and 6)

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

After Colonel Liam proved a punctual 7-10 favorite in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Muniz Memorial Classic on the grass last Saturday, he climbs a couple of notches to No. 5 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 364 Charlatan (24)
2. 337 Monomoy Girl (12)
3. 274 Swiss Skydiver (2)
4. 271 Knicks Go (1)
5. 211 Colonel Liam
6. 161 Mystic Guide (1)
7. 147 Idol
8. 81 Maxfield
9. 53 Shedaresthedevil
10. 48 Gamine

Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie leaps to No. 4 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll after being No. 10 last week. The sidelined Life Is Good drops from No. 2 to No. 6.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 381 Essential Quality (30)
2. 328 Concert Tour (7)
3. 313 Greatest Honour (2)
4. 261 Hot Rod Charlie
5. 177 Medina Spirit
6. 138 Life Is Good
7. 97 Risk Taking
8. 85 Midnight Bourbon
9. 71 Helium
10. 49 Spielberg

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)