Tuesday 5/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 06:15 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 4, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card slated for tonight. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Romping Rodeo (5-1)-Just broke its maiden and it was a sharp effort after going 0-20. Did race on the engine for most of the miles and the fractions were lively for this kind. Looks like a player at a square price.
2-Willy's Last Wish (9-1)-Ships in from Northville after a winning effort and makes 1st Nfld start. Did hit the board in 13 of 15 last year and the connections must feel this 3-year-old fits with this crew. Looks worthy of a swing at the morning line price.
4-Virgina Cruiser (7-1)-Here's another price shot who did improve in last but loses Wrenn to #5. Stahl should be able to work an efficient trip and could surprise if upswing continues in the 4th start for the new barn.
5-Backseat Joker (9/5)-This will be the 1st start since 9-11 and qualifier over a sloppy track was fine. This is the winner if fires hot off the bench based on past competition. It could happen at a short price and is difficult to toss. But hasn't shown much gate speed and could be a follower, so will look to others to spice up the Pick 4 payout.

Race 12

1-Son Of Sona (7/5)-Doesn't win often (3-31) over the past 2 years but now would be the time to take a picture. Drops to a soft spot, draws the rail which hasn't happened in a while and Wrenn sticks. Should be on top or in the pocket looking to win for the 1st time since 2-16.
6-Finish Line (5-1)-This is a risky play because of recent breaking issues. But does come off a sharp qualifier on a sloppy track. Got on the engine and didn't look back, winning in 158.4. Looks like an upset possibility if minds manners behind the gate.

Race 13

1-Hunter AM (5/2)-Winner of 2 straight steps-up a notch after a dominant win from the 7-hole. Wrenn sticks and this 4-year-old may make it a 3-peat with a smooth journey.
4-Worthabuck (8/5)-Miami Valley invader should fit nicely with this crew and has the gate speed to control the pace. But Stahl needs a good start and to probably steal a quarter to notch the 1st win of 2021.

Race 14

2-Chiseler (6-1)-Every now and then this 4-year-old passes a horse or 2 down the lane and this is a suspect group. Davis could be more aggressive in this spot and land in the pocket. Might get sucked around and then roll by down the lane for the 1st picture of 2021.
5-Mcarter (8-1)-Steps-up after a sharp steer from the 2nd tier to take top honors. Merriman isn't driving so Thompson will need to work a clean trip, and if so could pop at a nice price.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,2,4,5/1,6/1,4/2,5
Total Bet=$32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 06:20 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #3

#1 Fix Me a Sandwich	Speed didn't stay off the claim last out, but that came with a better group, and he should have every chance to run these off their feet from the rail draw.
#3 Appealing Future	He goes first off the claim today, but his recent form isn't comparable to his best, and I wouldn't be too excited to jump in at anything like the 6/5 ML offering.
#4 Too Much Johnnie	He's a little light on class compared to some of these, but the recent form is there and a tactical trip should be in store for him.
Race Summary	Fix Me a Sandwich should have a go of it from the fence, and cutting back a furlong today should work in his favor after fading going 7f with better.

Parx Racing - Race #4

#7 Oak Creek Canyon	Speed might be good enough to graduate with this group, as it lacks much depth outside of the ML chalk who drops in class. Something like the last one would probably do.
#4 Gateway Love	She showed some pace and stopped late in the slop on debut, and she can probably be a handful on the big drop. That said, it seems like a steep plunge off a debut that could have proven useful for a pace horse.
#3 Misbehaving Lady	She's a reliable tactical type with running lines that fit well here, but her form can be a bit spotty, so I would want a fair price to dive in here.
Race Summary	Oak Creek Canyon might have found the right group to wire to graduate, as there are at least a couple questions about the dropping ML chalk Gateway Love.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#2 Mija Bella	She might get just enough pace to set things up for her late rally at what should be a fair price in this second start for the new team. Bounce-back effort puts her there.
#1 Slingin Sammy B	She will handle these if she holds her recent form, but her form over the last year suggests the wheels will come off at some point, and today might be the right day to try to beat her as the prices continue to drop.
#3 Oceano Rosso	Her form is inconsistent, but the better races fit really well in here if the rail chalk doesn't hold the current form. Best game comes on the engine, and it's not clear she can get there today.
Race Summary	Mija Bella meets a few forward players that might set things up for her, and she's capable of something better than she showed last out. Slingin Sammy B is a tough read -- leaves the rest running for second on recent form, but it's not clear how long she can sustain this razor-sharp performance level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 06:20 AM

Myths: Bet-Against Derby Alumni Next Out?

May 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses don’t come out of the Kentucky Derby as well as they went into it.

Background:

The taxing nature of the Kentucky Derby, its mile and one-quarter distance under 126 pounds and uniquely large field size, are reasons why many handicappers openly look to beat those runners in their next starts. You’ll often here of a ‘bounce’ or ‘regression’ that goes with a hard effort; and an ode to the grinder that is the race’s chaos for those who were well-beaten. The reputation of Derby horses also is considered over-inflated, and produces overlays of familiarity down the line.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all Kentucky Derby alumni from 2013-2020 and tracked their performance in their next start. We measured not only their overall record, but record in next-out races of varying class levels and time away from the races for recovery. We studied not only the Derby’s successful runners, but also the grouping that did not perform as well.

//

All Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 had a combined record in all return races of 140: 33-21-17, netting 24% wins and a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet. They won races from the next Triple Crown steps, of course, to 7 allowance races.

//

All Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 bet to favoritism next out had a 42: 22-10-5 record, netting 53% wins and a $0.87 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 had a combined record in Grade 1 stakes races of 77: 9-9-7, netting 12% wins and a $0.92 ROI – winning the Preakness 6 times and the Belmont 3 times in that 8-year span (Belmont prior to Derby last year only).

Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 had a combined record in all races EXCEPT Grade 1 stakes races of 63: 24-11-10, netting 38% wins and a $0.86 ROI for every $1 bet.

//

Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 who ran back on 60 days or shorter rest had a 104: 22-16-12 record, netting 21% wins and a $0.95 ROI for every $1 bet. The majority of these re-matched in the Triple Crown.

Kentucky Derby alumni 2013-’20 who ran back on 180 days or longer rest had a 15: 7-2-1 record, netting 47% wins and a $1.11 ROI for every $1 bet. Among these long-awaited return winners were notable names like Whitmore, Vekoma, Audible and By My Standards.

//

Horses Who Finished 1st-through-9th in the Derby 2013-’20 had a combined next-start record of 27% wins and a $0.88 ROI for every $1 bet.

Horses Who Finished 10th through last in the Derby 2013-’20 had a combined next-start record of 21% wins and a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:

Derby alumni won 24% next out and converted more than 50% when expected to deliver as favorites. Of those who returned from the Derby into Grade 1 stakes, 72 of the 77 were re-matched in either the Preakness or Belmont, meaning only 1 could win and pushed percentages down. The same Preakness/Belmont factor also drove down percentages for those returning from 60 days or fewer rest, but that number still held strong. Non-Grade 1 returnees delivered at a higher win rate as they spread out into different spots with fewer rematches. More than 10% of the Derby alumni did not race again for 6 months or more (180 days minimum), but those who returned were well-spotted and prepared by their connections with an exceptional record. Horses who ran top half of the Derby and bottom half of the Derby both returned with solid marks, the top-half faring better next out, but the bottom-half not embarrassed and a near-equal ROI.

Bottom line:

Perhaps the Derby once was a grinder that wore down its entrants, but since 2013, that’s absolutely not been the case. The start of the Betmix database coincidentally coincides with the first year of the Kentucky Derby points system, which has almost universally removed sprinters from the run from the roses. That lack of substantial pace has been theorized to create a run on favorites and horses with tactical, if not front-running, route speed. Perhaps it also may have something to do with not burning up the rest of the field behind it, and, thus, creating positive next-out results like we see in this study.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, the percentages and ROIs for next-out dirt races was far superior to those who came out of the Derby and then tried the turf next, which dragged down the overall numbers some.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 06:22 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #4

#7 FULL MOON BEACH	Came back running for new barn, can handle rise.
#3 GRATEFUL KISS	Won 2 of last 3 starts when he stayed on stride, burned money in latest.
#8 REST ASSURED	Piling up the checks but yet to win this year.
Race Summary	Full Moon Beach lived up to odds-on favoritism off a seven-month layoff, drawing off to an easy victory through a :55.4 back half. He is taken to repeat on the class hike, despite drawing an outer post. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#4 VENTURE PRINCESS	Newcomer starts fresh, has upset potential if she stays flat.
#5 TOP DOLLAR	Got back on winning track two back, has best recent numbers.
#1 KINDA COOL LADY	Mare ascended ranks to finish in the money in three straight.
Race Summary	Venture Princess rallied for second behind the pocket-sitting favorite when last seen a month ago at Freehold. The winner finished second at 3-to-5 odds since then in a comparable spot. Play a 1-4-5 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #3

#3 MARADONA	Tries to upstage series of runner-up finishes lately.
#4 BUBBIE BOY	Flattened out while first-over against top one.
#7 BOURBANS BEST	In good form, moves inside out, seeks win number 50.
Race Summary	Maradona finished second in his last four starts, three behind rivals who went off at less than 2-1 odds. Give the 11-year-old one more chance to pick up his 40th victory. Play 3-4 and 3-7 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:22 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 8	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)
Allowance • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $23,700 • Post: 4:19P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CLIFDEN PUNCH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BASTET: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CLIFDEN PUNCH: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
7	BASTET	5/2	7/2
3	CLIFDEN PUNCH	5/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CLIFDEN PUNCH	3	5/1	Front-runner	78	66	69.2	62.2	54.2
4	BECKY'S MISSION	4	6/1	Stalker	72	63	57.2	57.2	50.2
7	BASTET	7	5/2	Stalker	79	73	54.3	72.8	70.8
6	GRAPHITE DUTCHESS	6	3/1	Stalker	62	63	51.0	58.0	46.0
5	CARPE AMORINA	5	8/1	Stalker	63	65	42.4	50.4	42.9
2	GAME THEORY	2	5/1	Trailer	74	58	40.3	60.7	55.2
1	DELLA LUTE	1	15/1	Trailer	64	51	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	LASAGNA	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	56	50.6	55.8	44.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:24 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 62 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 2:25P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. OFFALY FAST is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * OFFALY FAST: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the high est average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	OFFALY FAST	1/1	4/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	OFFALY FAST	5	1/1	Front-runner	84	73	75.0	71.6	69.1
4	LITTLE LUCERITO	4	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	62.6	35.1	29.1
3	KANPAI	3	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	44.6	37.9	33.4
2	SECRET MOMENT	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	46.5	26.5	20.0

Unknown Running Style: GUNS UP (3/1) [Jockey: Bridgmohan Jermaine V - Trainer: Wojczynski Justin], MAW'S GLORY (4/1) [Jockey: Morales Edgar - Trainer: Hernandez Rey], BRODY'S JESSICA (6/1) [Jockey: Canuto Thiago - Trainer: Douaihy Michel].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:24 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 3:10pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#5 AFLEET MELODY (ML=8/1)

AFLEET MELODY - Should do well right here. Weight shift of -7 from April 20th race at Parx Racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 UNBRIDLED JOHN (ML=9/5), #2 I SAW IT ALL (ML=5/2), #7 RICHIE GOES GLOBAL (ML=5/1),

UNBRIDLED JOHN - Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. Finished fifth in his most recent performance with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. I SAW IT ALL - This horse is always hitting the board, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play him on the win end. RICHIE GOES GLOBAL - A pattern of decreasing speed figures 67/64/53 for this racer. Notched a pedestrian speed rating in the last race in a $7,500 Claiming race on Apr 6th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 AFLEET MELODY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 9
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:25 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (OHIO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 STAR MABEE 5/2
# 6 G Q GIRL 8/1
# 8 TIA FLOR 6/1

STAR MABEE has a very good shot to take this race. Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been strong - 75 avg - of late. Rivera has an excellent return on investment over the past month (+23) which should help bettors with this choice. Looks strong against this group of animals and will probably be one of the early speedsters. G Q GIRL - She has been racing admirably as of late while recording strong Equibase speed figs. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Johnson have shown sharp results lately. TIA FLOR - Looks to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. Strong jock with trainer figures make this horse a very solid betting selection.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:26 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CATAUGA COUNTY 3/1
# 3 JOHNNY CAB 8/1
# 6 THE CATMANCAN 8/1

I think about CATAUGA COUNTY here. Has run strongly when running a turf sprint race. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Rodriguez in the saddle. With a respectable 85 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. JOHNNY CAB - Has longshot potential and could prove victorious at a juicy mutuel. THE CATMANCAN - His earnings per start in turf sprint events alone makes you take a look at him. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying respectable figs recently and an average speed fig of 84 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:27 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#1 ON TILT (ML=8/1)

ON TILT - This gelding looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. Gelding will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GOT FASHION (ML=2/1), #5 COMMON LAW CAT (ML=5/2), #4 NO EXAGGERATION (ML=3/1),

GOT FASHION - Never really did much at all last race out on April 7th. Hard to wager on in today's event. COMMON LAW CAT - This equine doesn't have a winning attitude. Repeatedly finishes near the winner. NO EXAGGERATION - Hard to wager on at 3/1 odds after the two most recent efforts. When checking today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed rating than in the last race to battle in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 ON TILT is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:28 PM

901ARIZONA -902 MIAMI
ARIZONA is 8-0 SU (8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs in the current season.

903ATLANTA -904 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 10-22 SU (-19.4 Units) vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

905MILWAUKEE -906 PHILADELPHIA
MILWAUKEE is 12-28 SU (-19.6 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

907LA DODGERS -908 CHICAGO CUBS
LA DODGERS are 35-24 SU (10.4 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

909NY METS -910 ST LOUIS
NY METS are 22-35 SU (-16.5 Units) in road games in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

911SAN FRANCISCO -912 COLORADO
COLORADO is 33-59 SU (-37.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the last 3 seasons.

913PITTSBURGH -914 SAN DIEGO
PITTSBURGH is 21-8 SU (11.3 Units) with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons.

913PITTSBURGH -914 SAN DIEGO
DEREK SHELTON is 21-8 SU (12.2 Units) with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) (Coach of PITTSBURGH)

915HOUSTON -916 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 13-2 SU (12.4 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.

917DETROIT -918 BOSTON
DETROIT is 3-12 SU (-12.8 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:29 PM

MLB

Tuesday, May 4

NL games
Dodgers (17-12) @ Cubs (12-16)
— Buehler is 1-0, 3.13 in five starts.
— Dodgers are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3-2
— He is 0-1, 5.27 in three games (2 starts) vs Chicago.

— Kershaw is 3-1, 1.09 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 4-2 in his starts.
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2
— He is 6-3, 2.74 in 11 starts vs Chicago.

— Dodgers lost 10 of their last 14 games.
— Dodgers are 9-7 on the road.
— over 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 9-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-10-5

— Hendricks is 1-2, 10.54 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 1-4 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He is 2-3, 6.00 in five starts vs Los Angeles.

— Cubs haven’t named a starter for Game 2.

— Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
— Chicago is 8-7 at home.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-28
— record in first 5 innings: 10-15-3

San Francisco (17-11) @ Colorado (10-18)
— Sanchez is 1-1, 2.22 in five starts (24.1 IP).
— Giants are 1-4 in his starts.
— last three starts over
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 1-1, 3.38 in three starts vs Colorado.

— Wood is 3-0, 1.50 in three starts.
— Giants are 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 5-3, 6.20 in 16 games (13 starts) vs Colorado.

— Giants are 14-8 in their last 22 games.
— Giants are 7-8 on the road.
— Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-28
— record in first 5 innings: 15-9-4

— Marquez is 1-0, 3.13 in four home starts.
— Colorado is 3-3 in his starts, 3-1 at home.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 4-6, 5.67 in 12 starts against the Giants.

— Senzatela is 0-2, 6.87 in his last four starts.
— Colorado is 1-5 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-2
— He is 5-1, 4.40 in nine games (7 starts) against the Giants.

— Colorado lost five of its last seven games.
— Rockies won four of last five home games.
— under 7-4-1 last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-28
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-5

Arizona (15-13) @ Miami (11-16)
— RSmith is 0-1, 4.50 in his two starts.
— Arizona is 1-1 in his starts
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.

— Arizona won 10 of its last 13 games.
— Arizona is 6-1 in its last seven road games.
— over 9-3 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 5-28
— record in first 5 innings: 15-12-1

— Rogers is 3-1, 1.55 in his last five starts.
— Miami is 3-3 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Arizona.

— Marlins lost nine of their last 13 games.
— Miami is 4-7 at home.
— under 5-2-1 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 7-27
— record in first 5 innings: 9-12-6

Milwaukee (17-12) @ Philadelphia (14-15)
— Lauer blanked LA for five IP in his first ’21 start.
— Brewers are 1-0 in his starts
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He gave up one run in six IP, in his one start vs Philly.

— Brewers won 16 of their last 25 games.
— Milwaukee won seven of last nine road games.
— under 10-3 on road.
— scored run in first inning: 8-29
— record in first 5 innings: 13-11-5

— Nola is 2-0, 2.86 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 4-2 in his starts
— under 3-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 3-0, 2.97 in six starts vs Milwaukee.

— Phillies split their last ten games.
— Phillies are 10-6 at home.
— over 9-4 last 13 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-29
— record in first 5 innings: 9-12-8

Atlanta (12-16) @ Washington (12-12)
— Ynoa is 1-1, 3.10 in four starts.
— Braves are 2-2 in his starts.
— over 2-2 in his starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 0-0, 4.73 in four games (2 starts) vs Washington.

— Braves lost their last four games.
— Atlanta is 5-9 on the road.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-27
— record in first 5 innings: 10-12-5

— Ross is 2-1, 4.64 in four starts
— Washington is 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 1-3, 6.98 in seven games (6 starts) vs Atlanta.

— Washington won its last four games.
— Nationals won their last five home games.
— under 7-2 last nine home games
— scored run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10-7

Mets (11-12) @ St Louis (17-12)
— deGrom is 2-2, 1.29 in five starts.
— Mets are 2-3 in his starts, scoring 13 runs.
— under 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He is 4-2, 3.95 in seven starts vs St Louis.

— Mets fired their batting coach after last night’s game.
— Mets are 5-9 in their last 14 games.
— Mets are 5-8 on the road.
— Under 6-3-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-23
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-2

— Oviedo allowed three runs in five IP (86 PT) in his first ‘21 start.
— Cardinals are 0-1 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Cardinals won nine of their last 11 games.
— St Louis is 6-2 in its last eight home games.
— Under 5-1-1 last seven home games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-10-5

Pittsburgh (12-15) @ San Diego (16-13)
— Keller is 0-2, 10.97 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He gave up 7 runs in 3.1 IP, in his one start vs San Diego.

— Pirates lost their last four games.
— Pittsburgh won five of last seven road tilts.
— under 4-1-1 last six road games
— scored run in first inning: 7-27
— record in first 5 innings: 10-13-4

— Weathers threw 10.1 scoreless innings in three starts.
— Padres are 2-1 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.

— Padres won seven of last ten games.
— San Diego is 4-7 in its last 11 home games.
— six of last nine games went over
— scored run in first inning: 9-30
— record in first 5 innings: 10-15-5

AL games
Houston (15-13) @ Bronx (14-14)
— Greinke is 2-0, 0.86 in three road starts.
— Astros are 5-1 in his starts.
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He is 4-4, 5.05 in 15 games (12 starts) vs New York

— Astros won eight of their last 11 games.
— Astros are 4-6 in last ten road games.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 7-28
— record in first 5 innings: 13-11-4

— German is 2-0, 2.08 in his last two starts.
— New York is 2-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 0-1, 3.86 in three games (1 start) vs Houston.

— New York won nine of its last 13 games.
— New York is 5-1 in its last six home games.
— under 10-4 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 3-28
— record in first 5 innings: 13-12-3

Detroit (8-21) @ Boston (17-12)
— Fulmer is 1-1, 3.75 in three starts (12 IP).
— Detroit is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1 in his starts
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 0-1, 4.19 in three starts vs Boston.

— Detroit lost 15 of its last 17 games.
— Detroit is 4-12 on the road.
— under 12-4 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-16 on road
— record in first 5 innings: 3-13 on road

— Pivetta is 3-0, 2.81 in five starts.
— Red Sox are 4-1 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0-1
— He threw 3.2 scoreless innings in relief, in his one game vs Detroit.

— Boston lost three of its last four games.
— Red Sox are 9-4 on the road.
— under six of last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 7-29
— record in first 5 innings: 13-11-5

Texas (13-17) @ Minnesota (11-16)
— Former Twin Gibson is 3-0, 1.09 in his last five starts.
— Texas is 4-2 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against his old team.

— Texas won three of its last five games.
— Texas is 6-8 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-30
— record in first 5 innings: 12-15-3

— Happ is 2-0, 1.96 in four starts.
— Twins are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 5-2, 3.19 in seven starts vs Texas.

— Twins lost 14 of their last 20 games.
— Minnesota is 6-8 at home.
— over 6-0 last six games
— scores run in first inning: 10-27
— record in first 5 innings: 11-11-5

Cleveland (14-13) @ Kansas City (16-11)
— Bullpen game for the Indians.

— Cleveland won six of its last eight games.
— Indians are 7-7 on the road.
— over 9-3-1 last 13 games
— scores run in first inning: 6-27
— record in first 5 innings: 8-15-4

— Minor is 1-1, 6.32 in his last three starts.
— Indians are 4-1 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 3-0, 0.39 in 8 games (2 starts, 23.1 IP) vs Cleveland.

— Royals are 7-4 in their last 11 games.
— Royals are 8-6 at home.
— last five games went over
— scores run in first inning: 5-27
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-5

Tampa Bay (15-15) @ Angels (13-14)
— McClanahan allowed two runs in four IP (59 PT) in his first start.
— Rays are 0-1 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Tampa Bay is 4-8 in its last 12 games.
— Rays are 6-1 in last seven road games.
— seven of last ten games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 8-30
— record in first 5 innings: 11-11-8

— Cobb is 1-0, 7.88 in four starts.
— Angels are 3-1 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 0-4, 4.32 in six starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Halos lost three of last four games overall.
— Angels are 7-4 at home.
— over 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-27
— record in first 5 innings: 12-13-2

Toronto (13-13) @ Oakland (18-12)
— Kay allowed five runs in 3.1 IP (56 PT) in his first ‘21 start.
— Blue Jays are 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Oakland

— Toronto won six of its last nine games.
— Toronto won three of last five road games.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 11-13-2

— Irvin is 2-1, 1.56 in his last three starts.
— A’s are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Toronto.

— A’s split their last ten games.
— Oakland won 10 of its last 12 home games.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-30
— record in first 5 innings: 12-12-6

Baltimore (14-15) @ Seattle (16-13)
— Lopez is 1-3, 7.48 in five starts.
— Baltimore is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4
— He is 0-0, 2.84 in two games (1 start) vs Seattle.

— Orioles won six of their last nine games.
— Baltimore is 10-5 on the road, 4-10 at home.
— under is 11-4 in their last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-29
— record in first 5 innings: 11-13-5

— Dunn is 1-0, 3.98 in four starts.
— Seattle is 3-1 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He gave up a run in five IP, in his one start vs Baltimore.

— Seattle won three of its last five games.
— Seattle is 6-4 in its last ten home games.
— over 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 7-30
— record in first 5 innings: 12-16-2

Interleague games
White Sox (15-12) @ Cincinnati (13-14)
— Cease is 1-0, 2.96 in five starts (24.1 IP).
— Chicago is 2-3 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-2
— He allowed 3 runs in 3 IP (7 walks, 0 hits) in one start vs Cincinnati.

— Chicago won nine of its last 13 games.
— White Sox are 5-3 in last eight road games.
— over three of last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-27
— record in first 5 innings: 18-4-5

— Hoffman is 2-1, 3.80 in five starts (24.1 IP)
— Reds are 3-2 in his starts, scoring 42 runs.
— over 5-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He gave up 4 runs in seven IP, in his one start vs Chicago.

— Cincinnati lost nine of its last 13 games.
— Reds are 9-6 at home, 4-8 on road.
— Over 11-3-1 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-27
— record in first 5 innings: 12-12-3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:29 PM

MLB

Tuesday, May 4

Trend Report

LA Dodgers @ Chi Cubs
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

San Francisco @ Colorado
San Francisco
San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games
Colorado is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Chi White Sox @ Cincinnati
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

Arizona @ Miami
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Miami is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Arizona

Atlanta @ Washington
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Houston @ NY Yankees
Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Detroit @ Boston
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games
Boston
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

LA Dodgers @ Chi Cubs
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Texas @ Minnesota
Texas
Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas

NY Mets @ St. Louis
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 12 of NY Mets's last 16 games on the road
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets

Cleveland @ Kansas City
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

San Francisco @ Colorado
San Francisco
San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games
Colorado is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Tampa Bay @ LA Angels
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Toronto @ Oakland
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland
Oakland is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Pittsburgh @ San Diego
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Diego's last 16 games at home
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Baltimore @ Seattle
Baltimore
Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2021, 03:30 PM

Diamond Trends for Tuesday May 4
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati (6:40 p.m. ET)

-- The White Sox are 13-0 SU since Jun 06, 2005 as a road favorite off a home loss where they never led.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: San Francisco at Colorado (5:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-11 SU since Aug 12, 2020 after they had 12+ hits last game.

OU Play Trend of the Day
Matchup: Texas at Minnesota (7:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Twins are 0-13 OU (-2.50 ppg) since Aug 09, 2019 at home after they allowed 5+ walks last game.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Phillies are 12-0 SU since Jun 05, 2016 when Aaron Nola starts as a home -140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)