Thursday 9/9/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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AI Picks: Laurel Opening Day | Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021

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September 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Thursday is opening day of the Laurel Park autumn season, and a brand-new main track has been installed. To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

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Laurel Park // Race 1 // 12:40 pm ET // claiming // 7 furlongs

#2 Fearless Lassie (5-2) // 29%W
#3 My Way Or Else (6-1) // 16%W
#6 Meet Michelle (3-1) // 15%W
#5 Supreme Blessing (9-5) // 13%W

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Laurel Park // Race 2 // 1:12 pm ET // maiden claiming // 1-1/8 miles (turf)

#1 King Alan (9-2) // 31%W
#9 Leave ‘Em Loaded (6-1) // 15%W
#14 War Light (10-1) // 8%W
#11 The Monk (15-1) // 7%W

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Laurel Park // Race 3 // 1:43 pm ET // claiming // 6 furlongs

#1 Victory Element (5-2) // 28%W
#3 Keeping the Peace (8-1) // 20%W
#2 Kingston Pike (7-5) // 18%W
#5 Championship Alley (7-2) // 13%W

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Laurel Park // Race 4 // 2:13 pm ET // maiden special weight // 1-1/16 miles

#6 Lidstrom (9-5) // 30%W
#7 Golden Tone (5-2) // 26%W
#2 Award Nominated (4-1) // 15%W
#1 Awesome Dynamo (8-1) // 11%W

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Laurel Park // Race 5 // 2:43 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile (turf)

#2 Mosler’s Image (6-1) // 25%W
#9 Maureenlovesfrank (6-1) // 16%W
#6 Mavilus (12-1) // 13%W
#7 Witty Banter (6-1) // 12%W

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Laurel Park // Race 6 // 3:13 pm ET // maiden special weight // 6 furlongs

#3 Cost a Fortune (6-1) // 23%W
#2 Determined Truth (3-1) // 15%W
#6 M’Lady Thatcher (10-1) // 11%W
#9 Frosty Brew (6-1) // 8%W

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Laurel Park // Race 7 // 3:43 pm ET // allowance // 1 mile (turf)

#14 Willing to Speed (5-1) // 19%W
#4 US Constitution (8-1) // 10%W
#9 Bryce Canyon (9-2) // 10%W
#2 Manicomio (5-1) // 10%W

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Laurel Park // Race 8 // 4:15 pm ET // allowance // 1 mile

#4 Romp (6-5) // 30%W
#6 Titan’s Will (4-1) // 21%W
#2 Tiz Mandate (5-1) // 14%W
#1 Up Against (20-1) // 13%W

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Laurel Park // Race 9 // 4:48 pm ET // maiden special weight // 5-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#12 Senson (5-1) // 26%W
#6 Two Sides of Love (6-1) // 14%W
#8 Determined Star (10-1) // 12%W
#9 Whiteknuckleflyer (8-1) // 8%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream 5 Facts (September 7-12)

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September 7, 2021
Schedule:
Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:
$512,655 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($700,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)
$4,486 // Super High 5

Feature Race(s):
$75,000 Sheer Drama // filly & mare FL-bred sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Trainer/Jockey 2 Year Win % (34%, +$13.60)
Win % Rank (32%, $+11.80)
Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (31%, +$13.60) * 2nd straight week top-3 *

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Rohan Crichton // last week 5: 2-1-0 ($40%, $1.86 ROI) // wins at 3-1, 4-1
T: Paul Kopaj // last week 2-2 // 1-turn dirt claiming wins at 6-5, 11-1 // was 2-13 since July 17 prior
T: David Fawkes // last week 2-4 // wins at 1-1, 7-1 // snapped 1-25 down streak prior
J: Emisael Jaramillo // last week 5-18 (28%, $0.70 ROI) // 4-10 aboard favorites
J: Hector Berrios // last week 8: 2-0-2 (25%, $1.18 ROI) // win at 5-1, added third at 15-1

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet **

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Arlington - Race #3

#3 Aiken to Be	Price may not be much here, but she's probably going to be tough with a little bit of pace in a race that mostly lacks it. Forward trip gets her home today.
#1 Chrome Attack	Price player is worth a look for the gimmicks while getting back to a turf sprint trip he seemed to like earlier this meet. She brings a sharp work with her to this one, and she can land a share at a decent number.
#2 Poseidon's Passion	Her turf form hasn't always been very consistent, but her best stuff is good enough to compete with these if she can take a step forward in this second start off a bit of a break.
Race Summary	Aiken to Be gets a really favorable race shape to work with here, and her baseline effort should be too good for this group barring a misfire or a really tough trip.

Arlington - Race #6

#8 Mkar the Fast	He has some price appeal in a race where a couple of the main players do their best work right up on the splits, so the hope is this guy will be able to settle and finish while cutting back off a pair of unsuccessful turf routes.
#1 Lost in Manhattan	He should be close up from the rail draw, but he doesn't have to have the front and might work out a decent pocket trip. Recent efforts would make him tough here at a likely underlaid price.
#3 On the Muscle	There just isn't a whole lot of finishing ability lined up in this one, so he's another price player with some potential to come alive late while going first off the claim.
Race Summary	Mkar the Fast occasionally passes horses, and that might serve him well in a spot where there might be a bit of an early battle. The price is right to take a shot here.

Arlington - Race #7

#4 Land Mark Deal	Slight edge in a very competitive finale, and he'll move into open company after finding a home going long in recent starts. He has been competitive with open types in the past, so there's reason to think he'll be able to compete here.
#5 Curlington	Popular claim tends to show up and run his race, and the barn has had a good meet from limited starters. Reliable finisher can add some spice to the gimmicks at a mid-range price.
#9 Gate Crew	He has run pretty well in a few tries this summer off the long layoff, but he's probably not going to offer a fair price for a capable barn while coming off a good effort in a pretty quick race.
Race Summary	Land Mark Deal gets the call off a nice score last time out, and he ran well with open company in New Orleans this past winter. I'll try to get him home with one of the other listed pair in the exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Hoosier Park - Race #1

#7 FRISKY PEDRO	Reversed form in a big way, holds tactical advantage.
#4 PUTNAMS ATTACK	A win and a near miss at this level before facing better in latest.
#1 BACKUP A	Out from fourth near far turn, split rivals late for second at odds-on.
Race Summary	Frisky Pedro turned in a freakish performance in his second start for this barn, springing a 9-1 upset from post 9. If he runs the same race, he will take some serious catching in a field that lacks speed. Play 7-1 and 7-4 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3

#1 ROGER MACH EM	10yo tries to end recent bout with seconditis, moves outside in.
#3 PREPPY ART	Widened lead after :55.1 half, steps up in class for new barn.
#8 LEGION OF BOOM	Seeks fourth consecutive win and 25th overall.
Race Summary	Roger Mach Em, runner-up in his last four starts, sustained a 4-wide rally from the far turn to the finish last week but just missed against to a rival who took the shortest way home. He moves from post 8 to the rail and can upgrade to a victory at the same level. Bet on him to win and place.

Scioto Downs - Race #2

#3 GLOWING IN THE DARK	Excellent form, projects ideal trip in Buckeye Stallion Series.
#4 PLESHETTE	Stayed flat and ran good one to finish third at 51-1 odds.
#7 SHE MEANS BUSINESS	Only loss in last five starts was from post 9.
Race Summary	Take a cue from today's first race before betting on this one. Glowing In The Dark rallied for two wins and two seconds in her last four starts but couldn't reach race 1 favorite Fantasy Life last out. She should get plenty of pace to run at, with both outside runners sending to secure early position.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Remington Park - Race #3

#2 Party of Fifteen	Tired in his first off the claim for Cravens and has a trio of works for his return, which will be on the class drop; had three seconds in three Remington starts last year.
#6 Carloca	Comes out of better races at Lone Star and makes his third off the claim for Hebert; a threat on or near the front end.
#1 Woodbower	Was second at Fair Meadows last out and can fight it out for a piece of the minors.
Race Summary	Party of Fifteen has experience going long and lands in a spot in which he should excel; returns to where he's done his best running.

Remington Park - Race #2

#4 Synthetic Joe	Was claimed by Caldwell last out and has been in good form all year, with two wins in five starts and on-the-board finishes in all; can excel in first for new connections.
#9 Liam's Pride	Ran in graded stakes in New York last year and comes in from Del Mar; has not been running well but takes a sizable class drop and can wake up.
#1 Hug the Munny	Didn't fire as the favorite at Indiana Grand last out and makes his fourth off the claim for Asmussen; can be in the mix from the beginning.
Race Summary	Synthetic Joe lost a photo last out going seven furlongs on dirt and can benefit from turning back to five furlongs and moving to grass.

Remington Park - Race #4

#6 Dial in for Lute	Was an easy winner last out and can handle stretching out to two turns; talented.
#3 Rockandahardplace	Is a veteran of the allowance ranks and can finish well vs. these; could benefit with a fast pace and he should be able to close some ground.
#2 Tillis	Ran on well of fourth on the turf last time in his first after a claiming win at Prairie Meadows; distance doesn't look like a problem.
Race Summary	Dial in for Lute romped over maidens last out and can adjust to the mile distance; showed a great deal of promise last out and can continue that success.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels

Event: (963) Kansas City Royals at (964) Baltimore Orioles
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 9, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Baltimore Orioles -116 C Hernandez (RHP), J Means (LHP) Must Start

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Teddy Covers

Event: (451) Dallas Cowboys at (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: September 9, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)
Take Tampa Bay (#452)
The defending Super Bowl champs return all 22 starters from last years team. Frankly, last year’s full season statistical profile doesn’t tell the true story of the Bucs. Remember, Bruce Arians completely remade his roster prior to last year, without normal training camps – the Bucs didn’t start looking like Super Bowl champs until their eight game winning streak to close out the campaign. Tampa Bay comes into Week 1 BETTER than their full season stats from last year would indicate; still an undervalued commodity. That’s not the case for the perennially overrated Cowboys, a team that couldn’t stop anybody on defense last year and not primed to enter the 2021 campaign by shutting down Tom Brady and company. Look for the defending Super Bowl champs to take care of business against Dak in his first game back from injury. Take the Bucs.

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Bryan Leonard

Event: (451) Dallas Cowboys at (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: September 9, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Over 52.0 (-110)
451 Dallas at Tampa Bay
PLAY OVER

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Bobby Ligs

Event: (451) Dallas Cowboys at (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: September 9, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Over 51.5 (-105)

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Trace Adams

I like the price on the White Sox in this last regular season series game between them and the Athletics on Thursday afternoon.

Chicago has won 4 of the 6 overall series meetings this season over Oakland and today they send Reynaldo Lopez to the hill to face Sean Manaea. Lopez has owned the A's in his short major league career as he comes in 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA in his 4 career starts against Oakland.

One of those wins came on August 17th at home when he worked 5 scoreless innings in a 9-0 Chicago win.

Manaea has only worked once against the Pale Hose in his career and that was a win back in 2018. His team just snapped a 5 game losing streak with last night's win over Chicago, but remain just 2-5 their last 7 as they try to stay alive in the wild card chase.

I will back Chicago today as the small road underdog to take the rubber game.

2* WHITE SOX

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Jay McNeil

Free play for Thursday goes in your NFL opener as the Dallas Cowboys won't be able to do enough on offense with Dak Prescott returning to live-action for the first time in 11 months against this Tampa Bay defense to help the points add up to an Over.

Prescott did not play at all in the preseason as he was cleared from his gruesome ankle injury but developed a shoulder strain that was significant enough for the Cowboys to hold him out of all 4 preseason contests.

Add to Prescott's concerns the fact his Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss this game and I do not see how the Cowboys' offense gets cranking?

As for the Buccaneers, they will likely do the bulk of the scoring and you can figure on Tom Brady getting them into the end zone say 4 times maybe even 5 times tonight. Even so, if the Cowboys can't score this game is not landing Over the total, and I don't think Dallas is going to score much.

Cowboys-Buccaneers Under on Thursday.

2* DALLAS-TAMPA BAY UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 4	W/P/S / Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta Daily Double (Races 4-5) / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $12,700 • Post: 2:15P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. DOWNTOWN BROWN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DOWNTOWN BROWN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	DOWNTOWN BROWN	9/2	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DOWNTOWN BROWN	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	53	53	50.2	50.2	47.7
1	WHERE'S FREDDIE	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	50	50	45.5	28.4	21.9
5	OUR HALF FIRST	5	10/1	Trailer	52	42	31.5	38.8	33.8
3	PAPA CASE	3	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	51	50	28.6	41.8	35.3
2	FLY DONNA FLY	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	44	32.2	36.4	26.9
6	OTHER THAN THAT	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $38,500 • Post: 6:31P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BENNY BOO BOO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TALK FAST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. GOOD EATS CAFE: Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GO EARLY STAY LATE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	BENNY BOO BOO	3/1	4/1
2	TALK FAST	30/1	6/1
8	GOOD EATS CAFE	20/1	6/1
6	GO EARLY STAY LATE	8/5	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TALK FAST	2	30/1	Front-runner	56	54	72.2	33.4	23.4
7	SHOOTER JUSTICE	7	9/2	Front-runner	0	0	67.3	4.7	0.0
3	BENNY BOO BOO	3	3/1	Trailer	60	50	21.8	47.6	44.1
6	GO EARLY STAY LATE	6	8/5	Alternator/Trailer	53	44	36.0	32.4	24.9
8	GOOD EATS CAFE	8	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	62	55	3.9	33.9	27.9
5	INDY REBEL	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	34	16.9	28.9	21.4
4	THE BIG GUY	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	26.5	18.0
9	HIDDEN HOOK	9	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: TUCKER'S STAR (15/1) [Jockey: Bridgmohan Jermaine V - Trainer: McBride Barbara I].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $31500 Class Rating: 57

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WORTHERWEIGHTNGOLD 3/1
# 4 TALE OF THE LYON 7/2
# 3 PROPHETESS 2/1

WORTHERWEIGHTNGOLD looks decent to best this field. Rivera should be able to get this filly to break out sharply here. Could beat this field given the 53 speed figure earned in her last outing. I would like this filly on the jockey and handler numbers alone. TALE OF THE LYON - Wagerers should note that this racer runs with second time Lasix today. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. PROPHETESS - One of the most respectable win percentages between this rider and conditioner make this filly dangerous.