Sunday 9/26/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Shawn Kizer

Free selection: Take Seattle and Minnesota over 55

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Kenny Walker

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Bengals vs Steelers
Play on: Bengals +3 -115 at Caesars

Free Pick on Bengals

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Jack Jones

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Cardinals vs Jaguars
Play on: Cardinals -7 -115 at BetVegas

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals -7
The Arizona Cardinals have been an offensive juggernaut this season. Few teams in the NFL have as much talent on offense as they do, and it has shown in the early going. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 445 yards per game. They are also 2nd in scoring offense at 36 points per game and 4th at 7.0 yards per play.
I'm willing to lay the points with the Cardinals this week because they should be able to name their score against this putrid Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars lost 21-37 to the Texans in Week 1 and gave up 449 total yards. Then last week they lost 13-23 at home to the Broncos and gave up 398 more yards. That was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Jaguars got a kickoff return TD late in the 4th quarter. They were also outgained by 209 yards by the Broncos.
Trevor Lawrence has been a massive disappointment. He is completing just 50% of his passes and has already thrown five interceptions in two games. He is also averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. It's hard to trust him to be able to match the Cardinals score for score, which is what he is going to have to try to do because the Jaguars aren't stopping Kyler Murray and company.
After beating the Titans 38-13 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals failed to cover in their 34-33 win over the Vikings as 4-point home favorites last week, and I think we are getting them at a discount because of it. They should have lost that game, but the Vikings had kicker issues again. But that was a desperate and hungry Vikings team. And while the Jaguars are desperate too, they're just not good enough to do anything about it, which showed last week against the Broncos.
The Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Arizona is 11-5-2 ATS in its last 18 road games overall. Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. This one really is as easy as it looks. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

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Dave Price

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Bears vs Browns
Play on: UNDER 46 -110

Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Bears/Browns UNDER 46
The Key: The Chicago Bears look like an UNDER team again this year. They have scored just 17 PPG through 2 games and are averaging just 264 YPG and 4.1 YPP. Justin Fields was not good against the Bengals last week in replacing an injured Andy Dalton. He completed just 6 of 13 passes for 60 yards with an interception. The Bears are going to be especially a run-heavy team with him at QB now, which will keep the clock moving. The Browns are already a run-heavy offense and that is even more the case now with their injuries at receiver. OBJ has been hobbled with a knee injury, and now Jarvis Landry is going to be out with a knee injury suffered last week against the Texans as well. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a sore shoulder, too. Both teams have been great against the run with the Bears giving up just 71.5 RYPG and 3.3 YPC while the Browns have allowed 77.5 RYPG and 3.0 YPC. The UNDER is 22-9 in Bears last 31 games on grass. Take the UNDER.

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Jeff Alexander

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Cardinals vs Jaguars
Play on: OVER 51½ -102

1* NFL - Cardinals/Jags FREE PICK on OVER 51.5
Sunday's Free NFL Pick is on the OVER 515 between the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars. Arizona is the perfect type of team for high-scoring games. The Cardinals have an elite offense and pretty average defense. The big key here is we got a perfect matchup here for the Cardinals offense against this awful Jags defense. Jacksonville gave up 37 points and nearly 450 yards to the Texans in Week 1 and were lucky to only give up 23 to the Broncos, as Denver had 398 total yards. Anything less than 30 points here would be a pretty bad showing by the Cardinals offense. As for the Jags offense, they haven't been great, but they should have enough possessions here to push this well past the number. Bet the OVER 51.5!

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Larry Ness

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Ravens vs Lions
Play on: Ravens -7½ -103 at pinnacle

My free play is on the Bal Raven s at 1:00 ET.
The Ravens let a Week 1 MNF game 'slip away' in an OT loss at the LV Raiders but rebounded for a "clutch" 36-35 win at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. Baltimore is on the road Sunday afternoon in Detroit to play a Lions team that has opened 0-2, losing 41-33 at home to the 49ers (trailed 38-10 in the last third quarter) in Week 1 and then in Week 2's MNF game, lost 35-17 at the Packers (got outscored 21-0 in the second half).
Detroit's longtime QB Mathew Stafford is now in LA playing for the Rams, while Jared Goff (former Rams QB) is under center in Detroit. Goff is completing 68.8% of his passes for 584 yards (5 TDs / 2 INTs) but while Detroit averages 5.2 YPC on the ground, the Lions are averaging a modest 112.0 YPG rushing. The offense may have its work cut out for it weekly, if the first two games are any indication. The Lions welcome the Ravens to Detroit allowing 38.0 PPG, to rank 31st of 32 teams. Surprisingly, the Ravens' D, typically among the best in the NFL, has allowed 448.0 YPG (31st) and 34.0 PPG (29th). However, while Baltimore's defense WILL improve, it's likely that Detroit's D is headed on a similar path as we've seen the first two weeks, for the rest of the season.
Baltimore has been the NFL's top rushing team for each of the last two seasons (was 2nd in 2018) but prior to the start of 2020, lost RBs Dobbins (805 yards & 8 TDs) and Edwards (723 yards & 8 TDs) to injuries. However, led by QB Lamar Jckson (193 yards on 6.9 YPC and two TDs), the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing through two weeks at 220.0 YPG (on 5.9 YPC). Baltimore has 116 MORE rushing yards than any other team and out-rushes Detroit by 108 YPG! Jackson has completed 66.1% of his passes for 474 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs) and had to gain a lot of confidence by beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs "down the stretch" last Sunday night. Jackson had a passing and rushing TD in a game for the 10th time in the win over KC and he now has a total of 89 TDs accounted for in 39 career starts.
John Harbaugh always has his team ready to go out on the road, as the Ravens are 21-9-3 ATS on the road since the start of the 2017 season, the best ATS road record of any NFL team in that span. Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry

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ASA

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Falcons vs Giants
Play on: Falcons +3 -112 at pinnacle

#481 ASA FREE PLAY ON Atlanta +3 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Despite their loss last week vs Tampa Bay, the Falcons improved greatly from week 1. They actually outgained the Bucs and their offense averaged 5.0 YPP after just 4.1 in their opening week loss to Philadelphia. Three turnovers, including 2 pick 6’s, killed them in that game. Their defense also took a big jump after allowing 434 yards to the Eagles they limited the potent TB offense to just 357 yards. This team has an entirely new coaching staff and will improve as the season progresses. We already saw a big jump in one week. The Giants aren’t used to being a favorite and when they are they are not a money maker. They have been favored just 13 times since the start of the 2017 season and they are 4-9 ATS in those games including 0-2 ATS last year. During that same span (starting in 2017) the Giants are 18-45 SU and simply can’t be trusted as a favorite. The Falcons were FAVORED by -3.5 vs Philadelphia in their opener and now two weeks later they are getting a FG from the Giants. Value is on Atlanta here.

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Will Rogers

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Chargers vs Chiefs
Play on: OVER 54½ +101

Chargers/Chiefs
It isn’t likely that the highly touted Kansas City Chiefs will lose two straight. Mahomes and Co are going to score points. The big question is can Justin Herbert and the Chargers, unlike last week, turn yards into points. The only place the Chargers’ offense underwhelmed was in scoring. The Chargers were 3 for 10 in the Red zone, with two touchdowns called back. Looking back to week one, Herbert excelled in ball control and 3rd down conversions. KC’s defense is suspect, arguably the worst in the league at this point. The Chiefs could care less about the spread, as long as they win. I am wagering on the total this week, and look for Herbert and the Chargers and Mahomes and the Chiefs to both put up some big numbers. Take the Chargers and Chiefs to go over the total.

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John Martin

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Ravens vs Lions
Play on: Ravens -7½ -111 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Baltimore Ravens -7.5
I'm not worried at all about a letdown by the Baltimore Ravens after their win over the Chiefs last week. If they were 2-0 this would be a letdown spot, but they are 1-1 after losing to the Raiders in Week 1. They won't be taking the Lions lightly, and they will make easy work of them just as the 49ers and Packers have before them. The 49ers were up 41-15 on the Lions with two minutes left in the 4th quarter before a ferocious rally by Detroit. And the Packers put them away in the second half with a dominant 35-17 victory. It's clear the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as they are giving up 38 points per game. Jared Goff is being asked to do too much. And Lamar Jackson and company always seem to throttle teams that they are supposed to beat like the Lions. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 30 points or more last game. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. Give me the Ravens.

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Black Widow

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Bengals vs Steelers
Play on: Bengals +3 -115 at William Hill

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Bengals +3 -115

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Brandon Lee

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Chargers vs Chiefs
Play on: Chargers +6½ -100 at pinnacle

FREE PICK - Los Angeles Chargers +6.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 479
I will take my chances with the Chargers as a 6.5-point dog. As a Chiefs fan, it pains me to bet against my team, but this is just too many points for KC to be laying against a really good Chargers team, especially with how bad the Chiefs have been defensively.
Kansas City can't stop the run to save their life and the pass defense hasn't been any better. Justin Herbert and this LA offense are going to be able to do whatever they want and even if Mahomes and the Chiefs offense go off, the back door is going to be wide open.
Chargers beat themselves more than anything (refs didn't help) in last week's loss to the Cowboys as a home favorite. On the bright side, it puts LA in a very profitable spot, as they have gone 23-9 ATS in their last 32 off an upset loss as home favorite. Give me the Chargers +6.5!

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Jimmy Boyd

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Saints vs Patriots
Play on: OVER 42½ -110

1* Free Pick on Saints/Patriots over 42½ -110

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Sean Murphy

Sep 26 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NFL | Ravens vs Lions
Play on: OVER 50 -110

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game has shootout potential as the Lions return home licking their wounds following Monday's second half collapse in Green Bay. Detroit could very well end up having the league's worst defense and that was on full display against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday night. Green Bay moved the football up and down the field at will in that game, only easing off the gas after building a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Jeff Okudah, arguably the Lions best defender, was already sidelined and now his backup, Ifeatu Melifonwu, is out due to injury as well. Two keys to their defensive line, Kevin Strong and Trey Flowers are both nursing injuries and questionable to play on Sunday. Even if they can go, they haven't been all that effective anyway as opposing ground games have absolutely torched the Lions through the first two games. While we've yet to see one of the key pieces of the Ravens offense, TE Mark Andrews, really get rolling this season, he should feast here against a Detroit defense that has 130 yards on seven catches to opposing tight ends this season. The real question here is whether the Lions offense can do enough to contribute to get this one up and 'over' the relatively lofty total. I believe they can and will. While Detroit is dealing with injuries on the defensive side of the football, it doesn't hold a candle to what Baltimore has had to endure on the injury front. The Ravens are depleted in the secondary and without much of a pass rush to speak of, the door is open for Lions QB Jared Goff to once again pad his stats in this one. In Monday's analysis of our 'over' play in Green Bay we noted that TE T.J. Hockenson was in line for a big performance and he ultimately delivered. Well, he's well-positioned to go off once again here, noting that Baltimore has allowed 17 catches and 214 receiving yards, not to mention two touchdowns, against opposing tight ends through two games this season. There's little reason to expect Detroit to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against the Ravens here. Instead, look for Goff to bomb away, likely playing from behind for much of the afternoon. Each of Detroit's first two games have sailed 'over' the total this season and the same goes for Baltimore. Until the oddsmakers make the necessary adjustments, we'll expect more of the same. Take the over.

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Stephen Nover

Sep 26 '21, 1:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Rangers vs Orioles
Play on: Orioles -128 at William Hill

Baltimore has one decent starter: John Means. And he's pitching here. I think the price is cheap to back Means against Dane Dunning, who is 0-7 with a 6.65 road ERA. The Rangers have lost 49 of their last 63 road games. Means is 6-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He has a 1.37 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers. Texas ranks in the bottom in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. The Orioles rank in the top 20 in batting average and homers.

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Mike Williams

Sep 26 '21, 1:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Nationals vs Reds
Play on: Reds -175 at Mirage

1* on Reds -175