Saturday 10/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Equibase Special D - Race #2 - Post: 4:44pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500,000 Class Rating: 113 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. Presented by Dixiana KEE (Grade 1)

Rating:

#4 EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (IRE) (ML=3/1)
#2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (IRE) (ML=4/1)
#3 SHANTISARA (IRE) (ML=7/2)


EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (IRE) - Jockey hops up on board after getting to know the horse by riding last time out. That's always a big time angle. This filly is in nice condition. Finished third on October 9th. Strong average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is she can close well, and should be right there at the end this time. Even though she isn't from around here, when a steed has finished in the money at a major foreign race track she will usually give a good account of herself soon after shipping. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (IRE) - I seem to always make money betting Brown horses on the grass. That barn has a strong win pct for this distance/surface. This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in-the-money. Changes tracks from last out at Saratoga to here. Multiple wins on different racing tracks tell me this one likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. Brown has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be wary of the longer priced half. SHANTISARA (IRE) - I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good contest within the last thirty days. Brown moves this one here to Equibase Special D from Belmont Park. Looking at the horse's past performance lines, she has shown the ability to win on different ovals.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BURNING AMBITION (ML=6/1), #10 CLOSING REMARKS (ML=8/1), #7 LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE (ML=8/1),

BURNING AMBITION - Could be tough for this racer to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list. CLOSING REMARKS - This less than sharp equine ran a disappointing speed rating last time out. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that figure. LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE - Run-of-the-mill speed rating last out at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SHANTISARA (IRE) - Brown has superb win record with horses running a route on the turf. This filly cannot be overlooked in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 EMPRESS JOSEPHINE (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 103

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 5 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FIGURE IT OUT 2/1
# 1 LADY ARCHA 3/1
# 3 ELEGANCIA 5/2

FIGURE IT OUT is the strongest bet in this race. Her 90 average has this mare with among the top Equibase Speed Figs in here. Diaz has one of the top winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Ought to be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. LADY ARCHA - With a competitive 93 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. The average class fig alone makes this one a contender. ELEGANCIA - Has been running solidly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. This filly has a good win percentage in dirt route races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #4 - Post: 3:22pm - Stakes - 21.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 94 Appleton Hurdle S. FH

Rating:

#1 MIGHTY MARK (ML=10/1)
#2 PRESENCE OF MIND (IRE) (ML=4/1)
#3 CITE (ML=8/1)


MIGHTY MARK - This gelding runs very well off of a vacation. This one should make a move coming home. Great late pace A little change in scenery has got to do this animal well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals. PRESENCE OF MIND (IRE) - I really like that latest contest on Sep 25th at SHW where he ran third. Rider hops back up aboard after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding last out. That's always a helpful angle. When a horse drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but this should help. CITE - Sub-par effort last time around the track at Saratoga was due to the off-going (he finished sixth). Should do much better in this event without a sloppy track. Fisher is giving this one Lasix for the first time. I think it's a good move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 YA BOY YA (IRE) (ML=9/5), #6 GALWAY KID (IRE) (ML=2/1), #5 RECENT REVELATIONS (IRE) (ML=6/1),

YA BOY YA (IRE) - 9/5 is too low of a price to take on this thoroughbred. GALWAY KID (IRE) - This entrant hasn't been close at the finish line lately. RECENT REVELATIONS (IRE) - In the last event this horse finished fifth. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 MIGHTY MARK to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

10/16/21, BEL, Race 6, 3.15 ET
10/16/21,BEL,6,1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1:45:00 STAKES. Sands Point Stakes. Grade 2. Purse $200,000. INNER TURF FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Non-Lasix Race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $200 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental nomination payment of $2,000 (in addition to the entry and starting fees) may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 55% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners of a Grade One at a mile or over in 2021 or two Grade Two races at a mile or over in 2021 allowed 2 lbs.; of a Grade Two race at a mile or over in 2021 allowed 4 lbs.; of a Grade Three race at a mile or over in 2021 allowed 6 lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the main track. Inthe event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, October 2, 2021 with 24 Nominations. (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Jordan's Leo	6/1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.	SL	106	21.70	1.12/$1
099.9278	5	Higher Truth (IRE)	2/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	JE	106	21.70	1.12/$1
097.7828	8	Our Flash Drive	12/1	Davis D	Casse Mark E.	W	106	21.70	1.12/$1
097.2031	1	Third Draft	30/1	Castellano J	McGaughey III Claude R		106	21.70	1.12/$1
096.8330	7	Fluffy Socks	7/2	Rosario J	Brown Chad C.		106	21.70	1.12/$1
096.7470	4	Runaway Rumour	8/1	Lezcano J	Abreu Jorge R.	FC	106	21.70	1.12/$1
096.0662	6	Plum Ali	8/1	Franco M	Clement Christophe		106	21.70	1.12/$1
093.5137	3	Harajuku (IRE)	3/1	Alvarado J	Motion H. Graham		106	21.70	1.12/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 19.05, ROI 0.56/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.0722
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Race Type Not Claiming
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Jordan's Leo	6/1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.	FL	38	39.47	1.40/$1
099.0148	5	Higher Truth (IRE)	2/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	JE	38	39.47	1.40/$1
098.0433	8	Our Flash Drive	12/1	Davis D	Casse Mark E.	W	38	39.47	1.40/$1
097.2548	7	Fluffy Socks	7/2	Rosario J	Brown Chad C.	S	38	39.47	1.40/$1
096.0841	3	Harajuku (IRE)	3/1	Alvarado J	Motion H. Graham		38	39.47	1.40/$1
095.6390	4	Runaway Rumour	8/1	Lezcano J	Abreu Jorge R.	C	38	39.47	1.40/$1
094.9178	6	Plum Ali	8/1	Franco M	Clement Christophe		38	39.47	1.40/$1
093.1035	1	Third Draft	30/1	Castellano J	McGaughey III Claude R		38	39.47	1.40/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 51.65, ROI 1.52/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.9852
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Turf With Dirt Today

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Sal Michaels

Oct 16 '21, 3:30 PM in 31m
NCAA-F | Miami-FL vs North Carolina
Play on: North Carolina -7½ +100 at BetVegas

Free Play on North Carolina -7½ +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oct 16 '21, 3:30 PM in 31m
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Iowa
Play on: Purdue +11½ -107 at pinnacle

My free play is on Purdue at 3:30 ET.
This season is looking like it might be a special one for Iowa and that's saying something. Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by 4 points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa has opened 6-0 (3-0 in the Big Ten) and has already defeated three ranked opponents, No. 17 Indiana, No. 9 Iowa State and No. 4 Penn State. The Hawkeyes rallied past the Nittany Lions 23-20 last Saturday, as QB Spencer Petras found Nico Ragaini with a 44-yard touchdown pass with 6:26 remaining. Iowa has won 12 games in a row (10-2 ATS) and has captured NINE straight contests against Big Ten opponents. This past Sunday, the Hawkeyes rose to No. 2 in the AP poll, the school's highest ranking since being No. 1 back in 1985.
Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. Purdue (3-2, 1-1 in Big Ten) has scored just 13 points in each of its last three games. Two of those contests were losses, including a 20-13 home defeat to Minnesota on Oct 2 in its most recent game. The Boilermakers outgained the Golden Gophers 448-294 but were doomed by mistakes, allowing four sacks and committing two turnovers in the red zone. Purdue also lost 27-13 at Notre Dame on Sep 18.
Iowa QB Petras can be shaky but he's completing 60.7% for 1,138 yards with nine TDs and most importantly, only two INTs. RB Goodson has 518 yards on 4.2 YPC with 5 TDs for a running attack that is pretty mediocre, averaging 123.3 YPG (99th). However, it's Kirk Ferentz's defense that ranks fourth in the nation (and first in the Big Ten) in scoring defense (13.0 PPG) on 274.0 YPG (7th). The team's ability to force turnovers has become a big story, as Iowa leads the nation in turnovers forced (20), interceptions (16) and turnover margin (+15). not a bad trifecta!
Purdue comes to Iowa City and could stick with Aidan O'Connell. He started at QB in place of the inconsistent Jack Plummer and went 33 of 51 for 357 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to Minnesota. However, Plummer has completed 69.5% with seven TDs and no INTs. We'll see. Either way, WR David Bell (six catches for 120 yards) topped 2,000 yards receiving for his career and certainly will be a focus of the Hawkeyes' defensive game plan. Iowa won't be too worried about a Purdue running game that is averaging 90.2 YPG (122nd). What Iowa's offense will have to worry about is a Purdue defense that is allowing 15.4 PPG (8th) on 300.8 YPG (15th)
Iowa is overdue for a "let down" spot and off the Penn St win and facing a rested Purdie team (was off last weekend), this could be the week/game! The Boilermakers hold a 49-39-2 advantage in the series, including THREE wins in the previous four games. The last time Purdue faced the nation's No. 2 team (back on Oct 20, 2018), the Boilermakers scored a resounding 49-20 victory over Ohio State in West Lafayette. OK, Purdue's NOT at home this time around but I'm taking the double digit points!
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Oct 16 '21, 3:30 PM in 31m
NCAA-F | Kentucky vs Georgia
Play on: Kentucky +22 -110 at SC Consensus

1* NCAAF - Kentucky/Georgia FREE PICK on Kentucky +22
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick is on the Kentucky Wildcats as a 22-point road dog against the Georgia Bulldogs. As difficult as it may be to bet against this Georgia team, there's just too much value with the Wildcats catching more than 3 TDs in this game. This is might be the best Kentucky team since Stoops took over. The defense is once again really good, but for the first time in a long time they got an offense that can move the ball. Last year they did nothing on offense, scoring just 3 points and still only lost by 11 in a 14-3 Georgia win. Only once in the last 5 meetings have the Bulldogs beat Kentucky by more than 21. Georgia is also a mere 1-9 ATS last 10 at home off 3 straight conference wins and are 0-9 ATS last 9 at home after covering the spread in 3 straight games. Bet Kentucky +22!

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Ben Burns

Oct 16 '21, 3:30 PM in 31m
NCAA-F | Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion
Play on: Western Kentucky -12 -115 at pinnacle

Both teams are off their fourth straight loss. For the Hilltoppers, the most recent loss was disappointing (52-46 against UTSA) but the previous three setbacks were expected. Two were on the road and the other was against Indiana. This is still a talented team capable of turning things around. That needs to start here. ODU doesn't have the talent that WKU does and its chances of turning things around are far less likely. The Monarchs' latest loss also figures to be tougher to bounce back from. They left it on all the field and nearly upset Marshall. Considering that they were 3-TD underdogs, that would have been huge. They blew their chance though and lost in OT. Again, those type of losses are often tough to bounce back from. The Monarchs are 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 conference games. That includes a 20-3 loss last time that WKU visited. This one should result in another big win for the visitors. Consider laying the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Oct 16 '21, 3:30 PM in 31m
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Iowa
Play on: Purdue +12½ -109 at pinnacle

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/16:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon was with the Purdue Boilermakers plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 victory against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes committed one turnover against the Nittany Lions making it the fifth straight game that they did not have more than one giveaway. But Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Purdue (3-2) has lost two of three after their 20-13 upset loss against Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Now they go back on the road where they are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Purdue plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin

Oct 16 '21, 4:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Texas Tech vs Kansas
Play on: Texas Tech -16½ -110 at Mirage

DMack's Free Play for Saturday, October 16, 2021 is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is missing their top two quarterbacks here but still have no qualms laying a tad over two touchdowns against this Jayhawk train wreck. In fact, Kansas has been outgained by 200+ yards in their four FBS losses and their giving up 552 yards and 51 points per game in those loses. Kansas can throw the ball around a bit and the Raiders defense won't make you think of Georgia but you'd really be asking a lot to ask Kansas to trade points here. Texas Tech 52-26.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Oct 16 '21, 6:08 PM in 3h
NHL | Islanders vs Panthers
Play on: OVER 5½ -115

1 Dimer on Islanders vs Panthers over 5½ -115

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Kyle Hunter

Oct 16 '21, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Alabama vs Mississippi State
Play on: OVER 58 -110

*3 Star Free Pick on the Over* The Alabama Crimson Tide were constantly held to field goals in the red zone last week by a very talented Texas A&M defense. While Mississippi State is well coached defensively, they definitely don't have the talent on defense that Texas A&M has.
Mississippi State ranks 98th in the nation in tackling grade according to PFF. Alabama has the playmakers to make them pay for these missed tackles. The Bulldogs rank 113th in the nation in preventing explosive plays. Alabama always has elite wide receivers, and they have them once again this season.
Mike Leach's Mississippi State team is throwing the football on 75.3% of their offensive plays so far this year. Alabama's secondary has been susceptible against the pass this year. While I think Alabama will do a pretty good job on the Bulldogs overall, I think the pace the Bulldogs will play at while trailing will give them a lot of chances to get in the end zone especially later in the game.
Alabama's offense is too talented to struggle for too long. The Crimson Tide should get on track offensively here. Mike Leach's crew should score enough to get this over the total.
Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

Oct 16 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Blackhawks vs Penguins
Play on: Blackhawks +131 at pinnacle

Rocketman Sports FREE NHL play Saturday 10-16-21
Chicago @ Pittsburgh (7:05 PM EST)
Play On: Chicago +131
The Chicago Blackhawks travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins on Saturday night. Chicago is 0-2 SU overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 1-1 SU overall record on the season. Chicago is 37-14 last 51 games following playing overtime the previous day. Pittsburgh is 1-4 last 5 games overall. Chicago is 13-3 last 16 meetings overall in this series. Chicago is 5-1 last 6 meetings when playing at Pittsburgh. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Oct 16 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Senators vs Maple Leafs
Play on: OVER 6 -115

Free Total Annihilator On Senators vs Maple Leafs over 6 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Oct 16 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Senators vs Maple Leafs
Play on: OVER 6 -115

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Senators/Maple Leafs over 6 -115