Saturday 11/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:04 AM

Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | November 13, 2021

November 12, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk
1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk has spotlighted a trio of key plays for Saturday. Follow Edzo’s plays each week – only with 1/ST and Xpressbet!

Aqueduct

Race 1 // 11:50 am ET // claiming // 6 furlongs

#4 Gran Casique (9-2 ML)
Gulfstream Park shipper shows up in the high-percentage Orlando Noda barn and lures Irad Ortiz Jr. for his first NYRA try. Gets plenty of pace to track. Win bet.

//

Aqueduct

Race 8 // 3:14 pm ET // allowance // 6 furlongs

#4 Risk Profile (5-1 ML)

With 2-5 morning line favorite Happy Medium taking all the money, this one will be an overlay price after troubled starts in his last two. He’ll need some pace help with the favorite up front in order to finish late, but the price will be right. Win bet.

//

Del Mar

Race 7 // 6:30 pm ET // optional claiming // 5 furlongs (turf)

#8 Too Late (7-2 ML)

Just missed in Del Mar turf sprints by a neck and half-length in his last 2 local tries at the trip, but his form has been darkened by poor dirt efforts. Can sit outside the speed from this post and pounce. Win bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:05 AM

AI Picks: MJC at Laurel Stakes | Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021

November 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Maryland Jockey Club at Laurel Park features a trio of Saturday stakes races. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

1/ST BET and Xpressbet players can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on these stakes races Saturday when you bet on our platforms. If your win bet finishes second or third, you'll get a refund in wagering credits up to $10 spent.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Laurel Park // Race 6 // 3:09 pm ET // $100,000 Smart Halo Stakes //6 furlongs

#5 Buy the Best (7-2) // 31%W
#8 Buff My Boots (5-1) // 21%W
#3 Luna Belle (6-1) // 12%W
#1 Trade Secret (3-1) // 11%W

//

Laurel Park // Race 7 // 3:39 pm ET // $100,000 James F. Lewis III Stakes //6 furlongs

#7 Local Motive (7-2) // 31%W
#8 No Sabe Nada (9-2) // 21%W
#2 Run to Daylight (5-2) // 12%W
#5 Cynergy’s Star (12-1) // 11%W

//

Laurel Park // Race 8 // 4:09 pm ET // $100,000 Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#7 Josie (9-5) // 33%W
#5 Miss Leslie (4-1) // 17%W
#9 Artful Splatter (9-2) // 13%W
#6 Scatrattleandroll (8-1) // 13%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:08 AM

Del Mar Late Pick 5 Analysis & Selections

November 11, 2021 | By Johnny D

With Breeders’ Cup in the rear-view mirror, now’s a good time to revisit our analysis of the Late Pick 4.

Why bother? you ask. Cat’s already out of the bag. Races ‘Official.’ Money lost.

We can learn a lot by comparing predictions to what actually happens in races--both with horse-by-horse analysis and ticket construction. Losing Pick N wagers usually come from mistakes in one or the other category. Then again, sometimes a losing ticket is the result of an unforeseen upset.

Race 9, Breeders’ Cup Mile, went to favored #3 Space Blues. On one ticket we took a stand and singled #6 Mo Forza. He finished last. Were we completely wrong? Not exactly. #2 Smooth Like Straight set the Mile pace and missed by one-half length at 12-1. #6 Mo Forza handled #2 Smooth Like Straight on several occasions in SoCal. What might the Mile result have been had #6 Mo Forza not been ‘roughed between foes early,’ according to the Equibase chart? Who knows? Guess that’s why they call it ‘gambling.’ We included #3 Space Blues on a spread ticket along with #2 Smooth Like Straight but our other sheet with #Mo Forza singled was dead right out of the box.

Race 10, Breeders’ Cup Distaff, produced the biggest upset of the 2-day event when Japanese invader #10 Marche Lorraine got home by a nose at nearly 50-1 odds. The bomb keyed $4,391 Pick 4; $48,292 Pick 5 and $513,085 Pick 6 payoffs! We didn’t have #10 Marche Lorraine on any of our tickets, but we did use nose-loser #11 Dunbar Road at 12-1. On one ticket we used frontrunners #1 Private Mission, a possible upsetter, and favored #6 Letruska. We figured they would battle on the lead early. On another ticket we spread the net, just in case the early pace battle left them empty and vulnerable to closers. The latter scenario occurred and in the ‘you’re-right-but-you’re-wrong’ category our closer missed by a nose. Nobody ever said this game was easy. Lesson learned: When a race figures to fall apart…anything can happen! Don’t get caught without having the bomb!

Race 11, Breeders Cup Turf, we completely missed the winner #10 Yibir on both tickets. Poor handicapping. No other excuse. Going in the trainer was as hot as any in the nation and he already had shipped and won races in the US this season, including one with this horse, as well as previous Breeders’ Cup events. Our analysis reported the following: “#10 Yibir scored a powerful romp in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational at Belmont last out for trainer Charlie Appleby. His figs are a bit light for this, so he’d need to do better, but the 3-year-old gelding has won 5 of 11 and 2 of 3 at the distance. The post is a concern.”

What is a real concern is how the heck we did not include this guy on our tickets? In the future, more attention needs to be paid.

Race 12, Breeders’ Cup Classic, was taken by #5 Knicks Go and as poorly as we handicapped Race 11 is about as good as we doped out the Classic. We had #5 Knicks Go singled on both of our defunct tickets. Credit where credit is due. We saw him as a single and he paid $8.40! We didn’t think #8 Medina Spirit or any other runners in the race could press #5 Knicks Go early and when Medina broke a bit slowly, it was all over but the ‘Official.’

Hope you enjoyed Breeders’ Cup. We did and look forward to next season and shots at those huge wagering pools once more.

Racing continues at Del Mar and below is one man’s opinion of Saturday’s Late Pick 5.

Race 5
Cal Bred Maiden Special Weight
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

Please note that the turf course rail is at 30 feet and the configuration favors inside speed and hampers deep closers.

#1 Spanish Channel emerges from a race common to several of these. In fact, she comes out of two races common to several of these. Her last wasn’t good but she did manage to finish third before that. She’s a 5-year-old with 27 winless starts.

#2 Austin James will stretch out from three-quarters on turf to one mile on grass. She was a big price and will need to improve to threaten here.

#3 Chao Mar hasn’t been better than fifth in five starts since an initial maiden voyage when third, beaten more than five lengths.

#4 Big Bell has tried hard in three career starts—the first sprinting on dirt and the last two one mile on turf, including a half-length defeat last out at 16-1 odds. That she started for M32k first out may have fooled folks into discounting her, but she’s moved up on turf and that makes her live in here.

#5 Renegade Princess has not fired in three starts, two of them in claiming races.

#6 Kitten’s Kid has speed, top connections in trainer Miller and jockey Prat, and finished a dirty nose behind the winner of a common race to many of these. She stretches out from six and one-half furlongs to one mile on grass and she ought to have the lead most of the way. She’s the one to beat.

#7 Issa Court tried hard from the rail in her only start at six and one-half furlongs on turf when third, beaten less than 3 lengths. She had trouble in the race behind #6 Kitten’s Kid and couldn’t get through inside in the lane. Trainer Dan Blacker is just 5% second time out, but it’s clear this filly can run some. She deserves a look.

#8 Piazzetta also comes out of the Big Summer/Kitten’s Kid race and was nearly 4 lengths behind those two. That was her third start and second sprinting on turf. She will appreciate the added distance and should be good price worth consideration in exotics.

#9 Finney’s Kitten broke from post 12 of 12 last out going one mile on turf and now finds herself breaking 9 of 9! Blinkers were added for a try last out in August. She responded with another evenly run race. Top jock Prat moves to #6 Kitten’s Kid and Rispoli replaces.

Best: #6
Tries: #4
Exotics Probables: #7, #8

Race 6
Maiden Special Weight
Two Year Olds
Six & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Pec Tacular ran OK despite trouble first time out. Trainer Hess is just 9% second time out and the colt has drawn the rail after having post 8 out of 9 first time out. Exotic consideration seems best for this guy if he can save ground and gain ground inside under jockey Van Dyke.

#2 Air Combat is one of 3…that’s right 3…loaded Bob Baffert runners in this race. A 1:00 2/5 gate work preceded by a :58 4/5 five-furlong move scream ‘talent.’ Baffert’s barn is an embarrassment of riches, that’s for sure, all three of his runners in here are talented. Let’s see if he ultimately runs all three. If he does, why split hairs? Use ‘em all. The ‘other’ Baffert wins often at a price…not to mention the ‘other, other’ Baffert.

#3 Kid Corleone moves from turf to dirt for his second start. He had trouble first out on the inside in a field of 11 and ran well to finish fourth, just 3 lengths behind the winner and next-out winner Cabo Spirit.

#4 War At Sea cuts back from a one mile try. That effort looks horrible on paper, but he had trouble at the start. Before that he moved along to be a well-beaten third first out sprinting behind BC Juvenile winner Corniche. A return to that form puts him in the exotic picture.

#5 Sir London broke slow from the rail first time/last time under Prat and finished second, beaten over 4 lengths. It was a good try and a bit of improvement puts him in the picture.

#6 Newgrange is one of Baffert’s 3 runners. The son of Violence has a :59 4/5 gate work on his resume. He doesn’t appear as good as stablemate #2 Air Combat but with Baffert, it’s best not to split hairs. He’s got too many good ones. Perhaps additional clocker report info can help sort them out. My experience, use ‘em all.

#7 Weslyan is the third of 3 Baffert runners in here and topped off his morning work with a 1:00 2/5 from the gate. That’s a nice move on top of a :59 1/5 and :46 4/5 moves. Son of Curlin sold as yearling for $250k at Keeneland September. Breezed in company with #2 Air Combat Nov. 8. Can’t ignore.

#8 Bron and Brow makes a first start for Peter Miller, an 11% trainer first time out. The Louisiana-bred son of Gormley been training steadily at San Luis Rey and has two nice 5-furlong gate moves sandwiched around two six-furlong moves. This guy won’t be short on conditioning.

#9 Brady Boy makes a first start for trainer Peter Eurton and he’s worked like he can run some. The Washington-bred son of Twirling Candy has a steady 6/7-day work pattern, including six consecutive impressive five-furlong moves. Nice outside draw for debut. Jockey Baze can be counted on to ‘send’ one away from the gate.

Loaded Race: #2, #6, #7 (Check Clocker Reports including Jeff Siegel’s Workout Analysis)
Possible Addition: #9

Race 7
Allowance $20k Optional Claiming
Cal Bred Three Year Olds & Upward
Five Furlongs (Turf)

#1 Crossword has one career win and that came over Del Mar turf about a year ago. That was a state-bred, 2-year-old maiden score. The bad news is that 8 more races have passed like water under a bridge and this 3-year-colt has yet to win another heat. He did run well last out going six furlongs over Santa Anita turf.

#2 See Through It won at this level at Los Alamitos last out. It was an explosive 4-length score. He’s made just one start on turf, so there’s a question, but you can’t argue with his current form.

#3 Riding With Dino adds more speed to what should be a fast early pace. He’s been competitive at this level—in the money in his last 3 starts—two of those at five furlongs over Del Mar turf. He’s blown stretch leads in his last 3 races, too. So there’s that.

#4 El Tigre Terrible was claimed last out from Peter Miller by Ed Moger, Jr. Current trainer is 0-11 off recent claims. 4-year-old gelding was lukewarm favorite last out at this level going one mile at Santa Anita on dirt.

#5 Aligato is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just 2 starts. He ran well in both races—a troubled, fast-closing five furlong Del Mar debut and a troubled, fast-closing winner going six and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita. He’s got to be appreciated in here and anticipated to be in trouble at some point.

#6 Austin’s Boy has raced 3 times at this level and needs more ‘stick’ to go with his early ‘lick.’

#7 Bound to Bet has two recent starts at this level and hasn’t impressed much. We’ll look elsewhere until this guy turns things around.

#8 Too Late is an interesting 4-year-old with 4 out of 8 turf starts in the money. Draw a line through his last race on Los Al dirt when he was hooked in an early speed duel from the rail. One back finds a neck defeat from off the pace going five furlongs at this level over the Del Mar course. Keep him around even though he’s 1-13 overall.

Also Eligible:
#9 Bench Judge is 0-5 on Del Mar Turf and 1-5 at the distance. He comes off two unsuccessful Golden Gate races—one main and one turf. The 5-year-old will need to turn things around to threaten in here.

#10 Psycho Dar is a 6-year-old with speed, 3 wins in 12 turf starts and 0 wins in 7 outs over the Del Mar lawn. Veteran Eddie Truman claimed this one two back out of a neck loss in a $32k 5 furlong turf sprint. Even if this one gets to start, the outside post will be a challenge and there’s plenty of other speed.

The urge under the circumstances (5 furlong Del Mar Sprint, Rail at 30 feet) is to embrace a speed horse. However, there’s so much speed in this race that bettors may lean toward closers who may need luck to find a way home.

Leans: #5, #8

Race 8
Desi Arnaz $100k
Fillies Two Years Old
Six & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Lady T is a maiden but she’s been second best twice. Unfortunately for her, one of her runner-up efforts came against #1 Lady T last out in the Anoakia Stakes at Sant Anita. This filly draws inside that foe again and will need to work out a trip from behind.

#2 Endless Thirst cuts back from one mile and moves from turf to dirt. She broke maiden against fellow Cal-breds at Los Alamitos going five and one-half furlongs. She has no early speed and would need to greatly improve in here.

#3 Under the Stars is a maiden but didn’t miss by much in her only start when third by less than one length. She’s trained by Bob Baffert…enuf said. She took big money and closed well from off the pace so the extra half furlong should be to her liking. Can’t leave home without her on your ticket.

#4 Tonito’s was bumped at the start in her debut to break slowly but she rolled wide into the stretch and won nicely by one length. That was at one mile on grass. This is six and one-half furlongs on turf. She caught a really hot pace first out that helped. Can she transfer that turf form and set up to the dirt? Not for us.

#5 Edna finished second in her first two starts for Bob Baffert—one in a maiden, the other in a Gr. 2 stakes race. She then was cooked on a hot pace in the Gr. 1 Del Mar Debutante as favorite. Last out she showed good speed from the rail and then drew off to win the Anoakia at Santa Anita at 20 cents to the dollar. This cozy outside box ought to be just what the doctor ordered for her to run well. Gotta have her.

Use: #3, #5

Race 9
Claiming $32k N2L
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

Reminder that rail is scheduled to be set at 30 feet.

#1 Muay Thai drops to the lowest level of his career and has apprentice Herrera up for trainer John Sadler. Hronis Racing claimed this one for $40k in July. Drawback is the filly’s 0-6 turf record.

#2 Inch changes trainers and stretches out from six furlongs to one mile on turf. 0-7 turf record is one of the discouraging factors.

#3 Ottawa Fire goes for a tag for the first time and that’s always a dangerous move. Rispoli and D’Amato are strong 33% together at Del Mar. Cut back from one mile and one-quarter to one mile should have him fit. One to beat.

#4 Ox Bridge tries again at about this level and figures with this group. He set the pace last out and probably will attempt similar tactics, although he’s had difficulty sealing the deal 1-10 lifetime.

#5 Cool Your Jets makes an appearance for a tag for the first time in an 18-race career. He’s a 6-year-old with no speed but he likes Del Mar—that’s where he earned the only win of his career.
Trainer Shelbe Ruis does a fine job. Exotics possible.

#6 Good Bye Putin’s last race can be tossed because it came on Santa Anita dirt. Trouble is he’s just 1-11 on turf. He did finish third at this level two back. He’s another one in here with no early speed.

#7 Rocks and Salt has no speed but finished third, less than two lengths from victory last out at about this level. 1-10 record overall and on turf is off-putting on the win end.

#8 Bud Knight has won just 1 of 19 starts. He came close last time when second, less than 2 lengths back in a race common to several of these. Jockey Prat has had success with this 5-year-old and was aboard for the gelding’s only win. They’ve teamed up for 3 runner-up finishes, including last time out. This guy’s tough to back on the win end but he’s most likely to be second.
#9 Cosmo’s like many in this race with just 1 win out of 14 starts. He has no speed. A positive is that he will start for a tag for the first time and that’s often a key to an improved performance. He’s tried NoCal, SoCal, dirt, turf and synthetic. He’s got competitive Beyer figs but still, 1 for 14 and 1 for 12 on turf.

#10 Bold Voyager has speed, is drawn outside and must ‘go’ under jockey Cedillo if he’s to add win number 2 to his resume. He was claimed for $20k out of a maiden race and has a win, a second and a third to his credit since in just four starts.

One to Beat: #3
Where’s the Speed?: #4, #10

The Ticket:
$.50 Late Pick 5 ($48)
Race 5: #4, #6
Race 6: #2, #6, #7, #9
Race 7: #5, #8
Race 8: #3, #5
Race 9: #3, #4, #10

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:09 AM

Jon White: Breeders' Cup Recap

November 10, 2021 | By Jon White
VENUE: Del Mar on Nov. 5 and Nov. 6

Main Track: dirt, fast Friday and Saturday; Turf Course: firm Friday and Saturday.

$6 MILLION CLASSIC (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Knicks Go, who paid $8.40, (2) Medina Spirit, (3) Essential Quality.

Winner: Owned by Korea Racing Authority; trained by Brad Cox; ridden by Joel Rosario.

Distance: 1 1/4 miles on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 112. Authentic won the 2020 BC Classic at Keeneland with a 111 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Classic: 124 (Sunday Silence in 1989 at Gulfstream Park, Ghostzapper in 2004 at Lone Star Park).

Recap: Knicks Go again utilized his natural early zip to his best advantage. He darted immediately to the front and stayed there all the way to the end of the 1 1/4-mile, his first race going this far. Many had expected Medina Spirit to either vie for the early lead or, at the very least, push Knicks Go in the early going. But that didn’t happen.

You can’t say that you weren’t warned this was a possibility.

Two weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, I wrote this for Xpressbet.com: “Through the many years that I’ve been analyzing races, I have learned that it can be tricky to try and forecast pace. That’s because the pace situation can change considerably if an early speed horse does not have a good start. For example, if Medina Spirit does not have an alert beginning in the BC Classic, it would help Knicks Go. And the same goes for Medina Spirit if Knicks Go happens to have a tardy start.”

Knicks Go did not have a tardy start. Quite the opposite occurred. He exited the gate quickly. Medina Spirit? He began sluggishly for Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez. Medina Spirit seemed to hesitate just a bit when the outstanding starter Jay Slender pushed the button. This forced Johnny V. to make a split-second decision. Should he hustle Medina Spirit early or not?

After the slow start, Velazquez chose to not put the pedal to the metal, so to speak. He thought that if he gunned Medina Spirit early to go after Knicks Go, who already had the jump on Medina Spirit, it could take a toll on Medina Spirit toward the end of the 1 1/4-mile journey. No one else in the field of eight was quick enough to go with Knicks Go early.

Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman put it well when he wrote: “The race was 1 1/4 miles, but it was over a quarter-mile into it. No one went with Knicks Go, and when he gets to rock along with his high cruising speed, he’s unbeatable going two turns.”

Indeed, Knicks Go now is eight for eight in two-turn races for Cox. Despite this splendid streak and despite Knicks Go boasting the highest speed figures in the field, be they Beyers or Thoro-Graph, he was not sent away as the favorite, but rather a 3-1 co-second choice with Hot Rod Charlie.

I make the Del Mar morning lines. In this capacity, I was responsible for this year’s Breeders’ Cup morning lines, a daunting task for sure. I made Knicks Go a 5-2 morning-line favorite for the BC Classic. I pegged Essential Quality as the 3-1 second choice. I put both Hot Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit at 4-1.

The bettors then backed Essential Quality to the tune of 9-5 favoritism. Did this surprise me? No.

On the radio program “Inside Churchill Downs” two weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, I said that I expected Knicks Go would be sent away as the favorite. But I also said I thought it was possible that Essential Quality could end up being the favorite. This belief is one reason why I had Knicks Go and Essential Quality as close as possible on the morning line, putting them at 5-2 and 3-1, respectively. By contrast, Daily Racing Form’s early odds, crafted by Brad Free, had Knicks Go a 5-2 favorite, with Essential Quality two notches higher at 7-2.

I thought that Essential Quality might end up being the BC Classic favorite because he had been the favorite in eight of nine career starts. In his only loss, Essential Quality was the 5-2 favorite in the Grade I Kentucky Derby. A 5-2 favorite in a race with 19 betting interests is a very strong favorite. Essential Quality experienced a wide trip and finished fourth.

As for the BC Classic, Knicks Go won by 2 3/4 lengths. So much for the concern some had that the 5-year-old Maryland-bred son of Paynter might not be able to win going 1 1/4 miles. Knicks Go was two lengths in front with a furlong to go. Once again he increased his lead in the final furlong, just as he had done when reeling off three consecutive victories in 1 1/8-mile races going into the BC Classic.

In terms of Knicks Go’s dominance in those three 1 1/8-mile races, he won the Grade III Cornhusker Handicap by 10 1/4 lengths, Grade I Whitney Stakes by four lengths and Grade III Lukas Classic by 2 3/4 lengths.

Knicks Go is one of only four horses to win the BC Classic without having previously raced 1 1/4 miles, joining Ghostzapper in 2004, Raven’s Pass in 2008 and Zenyatta in 2009.

Additionally, Knicks Go became the sixth horse to win two different Breeders’ Cup races, joining Zenyatta, Beholder, Stephanie’s Kitten, Secret Circle and Golden Pal. Golden Pal, like Knicks Go, achieved the feat this year. Golden Pal won the BC Turf Sprint this year and the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint last year.

Again, a couple of weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, I wrote this for Xpressbet.com: “I believe what makes Knicks Go such a tough dude to beat in two-turn races is his ability to exhibit both early and late speed in a race. That produces a lethal one-two punch to his foes.”

In the BC Classic, Knicks Go recorded individual splits of :23.16, :22.61, :24.27, :25.24 and :24.29.

Check out how fast he went early, especially his second quarter in :22.61. Yet he still had plenty of gas left in the tank to run his final quarter in :24.29. That strong :24.29 final quarter by Knicks Go set the bar too high for Medina Spirit, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie or anyone else to reel him in.

Medina Spirit had to settle for second. Essential Quality came in third, three-quarters of a length behind Medina Spirit. Hot Rod Charlie ran fourth, one length behind Essential Quality. Completing the order of finish were Stilleto Boy, Art Collector, Tripoli and Max Player.

Knicks Go’s final time was an excellent 1:59.57. It was faster than Gun Runner’s 2:01.29 when he won the 2017 BC Classic by 2 1/4 lengths at Del Mar.

In fifths, Knick’s Go’s final time was 1:59 2/5, faster by four-fifths of a second than Gun Runner’s 2:01 1/5. In spite of that, Knicks Go’s Beyer Speed Figure of 112 for his BC Classic was lower than the 117 Gun Runner received for his triumph in the 2017 renewal. This makes me wonder if perhaps Knicks Go’s Beyer should be higher than a 112.

This was the second straight year in which the BC Classic was won in front-running fashion. Authentic led past every pole in the 2020 edition of this race at Keeneland.

This year’s BC Classic nearly produced a Cox-trained exacta in that he also was the conditioner of Essential Quality.

Considering it appears that Essential Quality has no physical issues, I am very disappointed that Godolphin has decided to retire him. Why the rush to pull the plug on the racing career of the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2020 and the winner of this year’s Grade I Belmont Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes? Essential Quality certainly was not retired because Godolphin needs the money. Then why do that? Essential Quality, it seems to me, might have had a terrific campaign next year at the age of 4.

Knicks Go has not quite been retired from racing. He might make one more start. If all is well, Knicks Go will go in the Grade I, $3 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park next Jan. 29.

The Pegasus has the mouth-watering possibility of being a clash between Knicks Go and 2021 BC Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good, who also is said to be a candidate for the 1 1/8-mile race.

It will be wonderful if that does happen.

FINAL NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

As an indication that Knicks Go is an odds-on favorite to be voted Eclipse Awards as 2021 Horse of the Year and champion older male, he received all 36 first-place votes in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.

Knicks Go finished No. 11 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for 2020.

Ranking second in the 2021 poll was 3-year-old star Essential Quality. That means Brad Cox trained both the No. 1 and No. 2 horses in this year’s final poll.

Below is the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for 2021:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 360 Knicks Go (36)
2. 270 Essential Quality
3. 265 Life Is Good
4. 242 Medina Spirit
5. 205 Letruska
6. 126 Hot Rod Charlie
7. 67 Golden Pal
8. 64 Yibir
9. 59 Jackie’s Warrior
10. 55 Gamine

Also receiving votes: Echo Zulu (51), Malathaat (47), Corniche (36), Ce Ce (32), Domestic Spending (21) Aloha West (12), Maxfield (12), War Like Goddess (10), Art Collector (10), Dunbar Road (8), Dr. Schivel (8), Colonel Liam (4), Loves Only You (4), Space Blues (3), Echo Town (2), Ginobili (2), Smooth Like Strait (2), Jack Christopher (1), Pizza Bianca (1), Shedaresthedevil (1).

Note: I attributed the two points listed for “War Goddess” in its final poll to War Like Goddess.

$4 MILLION TURF (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Yibir, who paid $19.00, (2) Broome, (3) Teona.

Winner: Owned by Godolphin; trained by Charles Appleby; ridden by William Buick.

Distance: 1 1/2 miles on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 105. Tarnawa won the 2020 BC Turf at Keeneland with a 109 Beyer. Top Beyer in the Turf: 118 (Daylami in 1999 at Gulfstream Park).

Recap: The Tarnawa who showed up for this race at Del Mar was not the same Tarnawa who won the 2020 BC Turf at Keeneland. Tarnawa finished 11th this time. Her trainer, Dermot Weld, believes the probable reason that the classy mare did not fire this time is she was coming back too soon after running hard on an extremely soft, testing course at ParisLongchamp in the Oct. 3 when runner-up in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Facing his elders for the first time, 3-year-old Yibir was next-to-last in the field of 14 with a half-mile to go. The Great Britain-bred Dubawi gelding unleashed a furious late rally to win by a half-length in 2:25.90. This made Yibir two for two in this country. At Belmont Park on Sept. 18, he won the $1 million Jockey Club Derby going away by 2 1/2 lengths.

Domestic Spending and United were scratched due to both geldings having inflammation in a front leg. That opened the door for Bolshoi Ballet and Channel Maker to get into the starting gate from the also-eligible list. Channel Maker finished fifth. Bolshoi Ballet ran sixth.

$2 MILLION DISTAFF (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Marche Lorraine, who paid $101.80, (2) Dunbar Road, (3) Malathaat.

Winner: Owned by U Carrot Farm; trained by Yoshito Yahagi; ridden by Oisin Murphy.

Distance: 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 103. Monomoy Girl won the 2020 BC Distaff at Keeneland with a 100 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Distaff: 120 (Princess Rooney in 1984).

Recap: Talk about a pace meltdown.

Private Mission, off at odds of 10-1, set a blistering pace for a 1 1/8-mile race while being pushed by 8-5 favorite Letruska. The fractions were a scorching :21.84, :44.97 and 1:09.70, a tempo that took a toll on the duo. Letruska finished 10th in the field of 11 to snap her five-race winning streak. Private Mission capitulated and ended up last.

Japan’s Marche Lorraine, ninth early, charged to the front coming to the top of the stretch. She opened a two-length lead in upper stretch, then had to desperately hold on to eke out a nose win over Dunbar Road (12-1). Dunbar Road narrowly lost despite encountering her share of traffic trouble. Malathaat (7-2), who did not have the best of trips, rallied to finish third, a half-length behind Dunbar Road. Clairiere (10-1), fanned seven wide into the lane, also rallied and lost by only three-quarters of a length while finishing fourth.

Marche Lorraine, whose final time was 1:47.67, is a 5-year-old Japanese-bred Orfevre mare. I was at the Group I, $6.5 million Japan Cup in 2012, a race Orfevre was very unlucky to lose. He finished second, a scant nose behind the filly Gentildonna.

Gentildonna swerved out during the stretch run to avoid running over a faltering Beat Black. When Gentildonna did that, she solidly bumped Orfevre. Only a nose separated them at the finish. After a lengthy stewards’ inquiry, there was no change made to the original order of finish. In my opinion, Orfevre got robbed in that Gentildonna should have been disqualified.

Orfevre, a Japanese Triple Crown winner in 2011, also was unlucky not to have won the Group I Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2012. Many, including yours truly, believe jockey Christophe Soumillon moved Orfevre too soon in the Arc. Orfevre blew by several opponents, including Solemia, and opened a clear lead late in the race. Solemia then came on to win by a neck.

Even though Orfevre was unlucky in 2012 to lose a pair of lucrative events, the Arc and Japan Cup, the grandson of the great Sunday Silence (winner of the 1989 BC Classic) managed to amass lifetime earnings of $19,005,276.

And now Orfevre also is the sire of a Breeders’ Cup winner.

$2 MILLION MILE (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Space Blues, who paid $6.20 as the favorite, (2) Smooth Like Strait, (3) Ivar.

Winner: Owned by Godolphin; trained by Charles Appleby; ridden by William Buick.

Distance: 1 mile on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 106. Order of Australia won the 2020 BC Mile at Keeneland with a 105 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Mile: 119 (Miesque in 1987 at Hollywood Park).

Recap: When I watched the video of Space Blues’ win in the Group I Prix de la Foret at ParisLongchamp on Oct. 3, I had no doubt that I was going to install him as the morning-line favorite for the BC Mile. His late kick in the Foret was breathtaking. I listed him at 5-2 on the BC Mile morning line.

In the BC Mile, Space Blues enjoyed a perfect trip early when nice and relaxed in third while within close attendance of the pace. It was a flawlessly executed ride by Buick. When Space Blues was asked the question in the stretch, the 5-year-old Irish-bred son of Dubawi responded readily to prevail by a half-length in 1:34.01 as the 2-1 favorite.

Smooth Like Strait, a gem of consistency throughout 2021, set the pace and finished second at 10-1 when not quite able to stave off Space Blues. Smooth Like Strait lost a shoe during the race, according to trainer Michael McCarthy. Smooth Like Strait might well have won the Grade I Turf Classic instead of finishing second if his saddle had not slipped.

In seven 2021 starts through the BC Mile, Smooth Like Strait won the Grade I Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita on May 31 while losing his six other races by margins of a neck, a neck, a head, a half-length and a half-length.

Mo Forza, the 3-1 second favorite, never threatened after getting mugged early and finished last in the field of 13.

$2 MILLION SPRINT (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Aloha West, who paid $24.60, (2) Dr. Schivel, (3) Following Sea.

Winner: Owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; trained by Wayne Catalalano; ridden by Jose Ortiz.

Distance: 6 furlongs on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 100. Whitmore won the 2020 BC Sprint at Keeneland with a 104 Beyer. Top Beyer in the Sprint and the top Beyer in Breeders’ Cup history: 125 (Precisionist in 1985).

Recap: A lot of people thought Jackie’s Warrior was a sure thing. But in yet another example that there is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to horse racing, Jackie’s Warrior vied for the lead to the top of the lane, then weakened and finished sixth as the 1-2 favorite.

I thought 4-1 Dr. Schivel was a sure thing at the sixteenth pole. But he got nailed right on the finish line by 11-1 Aloha West. A 4-year-old Maryland-bred Hard Spun colt, Aloha West completed this race in 1:08.49.

For Catalano, this was his fourth Breeders’ Cup win, following Dreaming of Anna (2006 BC Juvenile Fillies), She Be Wild (2008 BC Juvenile Fillies) and Stephanie’s Kitten (2011 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf).

This also made it back-to-back years in which a Midwest trainer saddled the BC Sprint winner. In 2020, Ron Moquette sent out the popular Whitmore, who won in come-from-behind fashion a la Aloha West.

$2 MILLION FILLY & MARE TURF (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Loves Only You, who paid $10.60, (2) My Sister Nat, (3) War Like Goddess.

Winner: Owned by DMM Dream Club; trained by Yoshito Yahagi; ridden by Yuga Kawada.

Distance: 1 3/8 miles on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 102. Audarya won the 2020 BC Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland with a 103 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Filly & Mare Turf: 112 (Banks Hill in 2001).

Recap: Japan made history by winning this race with Loves Only You. This was despite some taking a dim view of all Japanese horses competing at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

For instance, I received an email from a very sharp horseplayer, who wondered why Jasper Great was not higher than 15-1 on the morning line in the BC Juvenile. The horseplayer correctly pointed out that Jasper Great was going into the BC Juvenile off only a maiden win in Japan.

“The Japanese have never done well in America in dirt races, or any other BC races for that matter,” the horseplayer again correctly pointed out.

On Nov 1, the day I had to submit the Breeders’ Cup morning lines even before the post positions were drawn, Jasper Great was listed at 20-1 on David Aragona’s DRF early line.

“While Japan has historically not done well in the Breeders’ Cup, they have been doing extremely well on the world stage in recent years, winning many of the biggest races in the world,” I responded to the horseplayer. “Yes, Jasper Great won only a maiden race. But he won ‘easily’ by 10. He’s by a BC Classic winner [Arrogate] out of a mare by a BC Classic winner [Wild Again]. Who knows how good Jasper Great is off only one 10-length win? What if he’s a superstar? He probably isn’t, but what if he is?

“Sure, I could have made Jasper Great 20-1 or 30-1. But what if it turns out he’s some sort of monster and a bunch of money comes pouring in on him and drives him down to under 10-1?”

For the record, Jasper Great was sent away by bettors at 14-1.

“Ignore the Japanese BC raiders at your own peril,” was the headline in an Oct. 20 story written by Nicholas Godfrey for the website Thoroughbred Racing Commentary.

“In years to come, we might look back at the 38th Breeders’ Cup as the one in which Japan finally started to take it seriously. Ignore them at your own peril,” Godfrey wrote.

Talk about prophetic.

Loves Only You this year became Japan’s first Breeders’ Cup winner. And then later Saturday, Japan celebrated another victory when Marche Lorraine pulled off a 49-1 shocker in the BC Distaff.

Loves Only You was a far cry from 49-1 in the BC Filly & Mare Turf. I made her 4-1 on the morning line. Bettors sent her off at 4-1. Never far back, the 5-year-old Deep Impact mare (a granddaughter of 1989 BC Classic winner Sunday Silence) surged late to win by a half-length in 2:13.87. Deep Impact swept the 2005 Triple Crown in Japan.

My Sister Nat finished second in the field of 12. She is a half-sister to Eclipse Award champion and 2018 BC Filly & Mare Turf winner Sistercharlie.

Ending up third in this year’s BC Filly & Mare Turf was 2-1 favorite War Like Goddess, whose four-race winning streak came to an end.

$1 MILLION DIRT MILE (NOV. 6)

Results: (1) Life Is Good, who paid $3.40 as the favorite, (2) Ginobili, (3) Restrainedvengeance.

Winner: Owned by CHC Inc. and WinStar Darm.; trained by Todd Pletcher; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

Distance: 1 mile on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 109. Knicks Go won the 2019 BC Dirt Mile at Keeneland with a 108 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Dirt Mile: 119 (Corinthian in 2007).

Recap: Life Is Good was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby in Churchill Downs’ future wager prior to an injury that knocked him out of the Triple Crown races.

Life Is Good emerged from a marvelous six-furlong workout in 1:11.40 at Santa Anita on March 30 with a hind ankle injury that required surgery. When he returned to equine combat, he suffered his only loss so far, though he even ran admirably in defeat. Life Is Good lost by a neck when he finished second to the crack sprinter Jackie’s Warrior in a rousing renewal of the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 28.

After the Jerkens, Life Is Good resumed his winning ways. He cruised to a 5 1/2-furlong victory in the Grade II Kelso Handicap on Sept. 25, which really was nothing more than paid workout for him. He faced older foes for the first time in the Kelso.

Life Is Good then trounced his elders again as the 3-5 favorite in the BC Dirt Mile. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt won in front-running fashion by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:34.12.

Will Life is Good follow in the footsteps of 2020 BC Dirt Mile winner Knicks Go and capture the BC Classic the following year? Don’t rule it out.

$1 MILLION TURF SPRINT (NOV. 6)

Results: (1), Golden Pal, who paid $7.00 as the favorite, (2) Lieutenant Dan, (3) Charmaine’s Mia.

Winner: Owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and Westerberg; trained by Wesley Ward; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

Distance: 5 furlongs on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 107. Glass Slippers won the 2020 BC Turf Sprint at Keeneland with a 104 Beyer. Previous top Beyer in the BC Turf Sprint: 119 (Stormy Liberal in 2018).

Recap: Ward has been sky high on Golden Pal ever since the Kentucky-bred 3-year-old Uncle Mo colt was a yearling. The trainer felt that Golden Pal possessed the look in his eye and demeanor to possibly be something special.

Living up to his trainer’s high expectations, Golden Pal won the 2020 BC Juvenile Turf Sprint despite breaking from post 14.

Golden Pal once again lived up to Ward’s high opinion of him by winning the 2021 BC Turf Sprint. Few Quarter Horses have ever started as fast as Golden Pal last Saturday at Del Mar. He was two lengths in front quicker than you can say his name. He prevailed by 1 1/4 lengths in : 55.22 as the 5-2 favorite.

$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (NOV. 6)

Results: (1), Ce Ce, who paid $14.40, (2) Edgeway, (3) Gamine.

Winner: Owned by Bo Hirsch; trained by Michael McCarthy; ridden by Victor Espinoza.

Distance: 7 furlongs on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 100. Gamine won the 2020 BC Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland with a 110 Beyer. Top previous Beyer in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint: 108 (Groupie Doll in 2012 at Santa Anita).

Recap: Oops. I made Gamine my “most probable winner” at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. She finished third as the 2-5 favorite, losing for just the second time in 11 career starts.

My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner now has won in 13 of the 18 last years.

Below is a list of my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner for each year going back to 2004:

2021 Gamine in the Filly & Mare Sprint (finished third)
2020 Golden Pal in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (won)
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)

In this year’s BC Filly & Mare Sprint, Ce Ce raced in fourth early, made a four-wide move to take the lead at the top of the stretch, then drew away to win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:21.00. The 5-year-old Kentucky-bred Elusive Quality mare was sent away at odds of 6-1 from a 4-1 morning line. She had finished third, three lengths behind Gamine, in the Grade I Ballerina Handicap at Saratoga on Aug. 28.

Bo Hirsch, who has been going to the races at Del Mar for more than 70 years, bred and owns Ce Ce. Hirsch’s father, Clement Hirsch, has a Grade I race for fillies and mares named in his honor that is run each year during Del Mar’s summer meet. Clement Hirsch, who died in 2000, organized the group that took control of Del Mar in 1969 as a non-profit operation. That group continues to operate the track “where the turf meets the surf” to this day.

It is understandable that Bo Hirsch was especially ecstatic to win his first Breeders’ Cup race.

“I can tell you, by experience now, that when you win your first Breeders’ Cup, you’re on cloud million!” Hirsch said in the post-race ceremony in which one Bo (Bo Derek) presented a trophy to another Bo (Hirsch).

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (NOV. 5)

Results: (1) Modern Games, who raced for purse only, (2) Tiz the Bomb, who was the winner for wagering purposes, paying $17.60, (3) Mackinnon.

Winner: Owned by Godolphin; trained by Charles Appleby; ridden by William Buick.

Distance: 1 mile on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 87 for Modern Games (84 for Tiz the Bomb). Fire At Will won the 2020 BC Juvenile Turf at Keeneland with a 90 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Juvenile Turf: 93 (Donativum in 2008, Outstrip in 2013, Oscar Performance in 2016).

Recap: Below are words that have been used to describe the 2021 BC Juvenile Turf:

Abomination
Awful
Debacle
Disaster
Embarrassment
Fiasco
Snafu

Let’s just say that all of those words are appropriate to describe what happened in what no doubt is going to be regarded as one of the most controversial races in the 38-year history of the Breeders’ Cup.

Keep in mind controversy is nothing new when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup. There was controversy going all the way back to the first Breeders’ Cup held at Hollywood Park in 1984. The BC Classic that year had a $3 million purse, making it the richest horse race that had been ever run up to that time. Wild Again won a wild three-way deep-stretch battle with Gate Dancer and Slew o’ Gold. Following a stewards’ inquiry, Gate Dancer was disqualified and placed third for causing interference during the stretch run.

There was Breeders’ Cup controversy as recently as last year. Authentic won the BC Classic. His final time for 1 1/4 miles was originally posted as 1:59.19. This also was the final time listed in the original Equibase chart. The chart, though, had no fractions. In the chart’s comments, it said: “Due to a timer malfunction, the fractional times were timed manually using video.”

Many questioned the official final time of 1:59.19. Even the Trakus system used by Keeneland disagreed with that clocking. The Trakus system timed the race in 1:59.82.

Ultimately, yet another clocking, 1:59.60, became the official final time for the 2020 BC Classic.

Keeneland and Equibase issued this statement last year on Nov. 11:

“Prior to the running of the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Gr. 1) on November 7, 2020, at Keeneland, a photo eye at the start of the race originally was tripped, which resulted in an error when attempting to operate the timing system manually causing inaccurate timing for all fractions and the final time of the race. A final time of 1:59.19 was initially provided by Equibase using the available video replay. After subsequent and more detailed review and timing of the race from multiple sources and camera angles, Keeneland and Equibase have determined the fractional times for the Classic (:23.20, :46.48, 1:10.32, 1:34.64) and confirmed a final time of 1:59.60. The Classic chart has been updated and the running of Authentic in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is now the official track record for the 1 1/4-mile distance at Keeneland.”

I think it’s fair to say that this year’s Breeders’ Cup had a race that was considerably more controversial than either the 1984 BC Classic or 2020 BC Classic. What occurred at this year’s BC Juvenile Turf was a comedy of errors, though there was nothing funny about it.

“The Friday running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar has left bettors once again infuriated by the racing industry’s procedures and protocols, with social media abuzz with claims from longtime horseplayers that their confidence and enthusiasm for the sport has been irretrievably shaken,” Daily Racing Form’s Matt Hegarty wrote.

To begin with, No. 2 Albarh, owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie Appleby, flipped in the gate. He was scratched by the stewards on veterinary advice. No. 1 was Modern Games, the betting favorite, also owned by Godolphin and trained by Appleby.

Modern Games “was freed by a member of the gate crew in order to remove the horse from any danger as Albahr struggled on the ground in his own stall,” wrote Hegarty. “William Buick, the rider of Modern Games, quickly restrained the horse after he was released.”

An assistant starter had allowed Modern Games to come out the front in order for the colt to extricate himself from the gate. Hindsight always is 20/20, but it probably would have been better to back Albahr out of the gate. That would have better enabled veterinarians to inspect him. I say this because what happened next was what really set off the chain of events that caused such an outcry from horseplayers. One of the track veterinarians, Dr. Chuck Jenkins, prematurely recommended to the stewards that Modern Games was to be scratched.

Jenkins mistakenly thought Modern Games had busted through the front of the gate when the colt actually had been let out of the gate by an assistant starter. It is inexcusable that Modern Games was not closely inspected by a veterinarian or veterinarians at the starting gate before the stewards were contacted to recommend that Modern Games be scratched.

“After an additional examination and assessment of Modern Games by the attending veterinary team, track veterinarian Dr. Dana Stead concluded that the horse had not been injured and communicated to the stewards that the horse was cleared to run,” according to a joint statement issued Saturday by the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB), Del Mar Thoroughbred Club and Breeders’ Cup.

By the way, a CHRB statement issued Friday said in part that “Modern Games reared up and hit the back of the gate; Albahr flipped over and became lodged underneath the starting gate.”

However, the CHRB issued the following statement on Monday to correct the record regarding Modern Games:

“Concerning the 10th race at Del Mar on Friday, November 5, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf: Upon review of available videos showing the horses in the gate prior to the start of the race, the CHRB has determined that Modern Games did not rear up in the gate, as was initially reported by the CHRB and the veterinarians at the gate. The starter and assistant starter took protective steps by leading the horse out of the front of the gate. The horse did not break through the gate on its own, as was originally thought. The CHRB is conducting a full investigation of this matter.”

The joint statement issued Saturday by the CHRB, Del Mar and Breeders’ Cup provided a timeline:

“The CHRB determined that, as discussed in the aftermath of the race, Modern Games was scratched by the stewards on the recommendation of one of the track veterinarians, Dr. Chuck Jenkins, at the starting gate at 17:35.35 PT,” the statement said. “After additional examination and assessment of Modern Games by the attending veterinary team, track veterinarian Dr. Dana Stead concluded that the horse had not been injured and communicated to the stewards that the horse was cleared to run.

“Due to a miscommunication between the stewards and the Del Mar mutuels department, Modern Games was reinserted into the pari-mutuel wagering pools at 17:37.01 PT.”

“At 17:43.49 PT, after it was made clear to the mutuels department that Modern Games was competing for purse money only, the horse was again removed from the wagering pools.

“The race went off at 17:47.34 PT.

“Per CHRB rules, all wagers on Modern Games in the win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta and super high five pools are subject to refund. Daily double and Pick 3 wagers to Modern Games receive a consolation payment. Per CHRB rules, in all other multi-leg wagers ending on the 10th race, bettors with tickets including Modern Games and Albahr received the post-time favorite, Dakota Gold, unless they designated an alternate for the race.”

The next paragraph in Saturday’s joint statement is important. That’s because it addresses an issue that seemingly triggered the whole mess by not having one veterinarian in charge to recommend a scratch to the stewards.

“As a result of a review, the CHRB, Del Mar and Breeders’ Cup are modifying their injury management communications protocols, so that Dr. Stead will make the final determination with respect to scratches at the starting gate and has sole authority to communicate those recommendations to the stewards.”

Oh, if only that already had been the case.

Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch wrote: “Modern Games won the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. But if you bet on him, you didn’t.”

It is clear that much needs to be addressed going forward, especially regarding bettors. That’s because there should never, ever be a situation in which a person has bet on a horse who wins, but the bettor loses. That’s why it’s understandable that many of the 26,553 in attendance at Del Mar understandably booed loudly, while many others elsewhere likewise were irate.

Some have wondered why Modern Games ran for purse only. Once he was removed from the betting pools, there was no other option, as specified by CHRB rule 1974 (b). The rule states: “If a horse is removed from the wagering pool due to totalizator error, or due to any other error, and neither the trainer nor the owner is at fault, the horse shall start in the race as a non-wagering interest for the purse only and shall be disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes.”

“Shall” is the key word in that rule. The word “shall” ties the hands of the stewards. The stewards have wriggle room if it says “may,” but not when it says “shall.”

When I worked as a steward at Golden Gate Fields in 2017 with John Herbuveaux and Richard Lewis, we had to invoke CHRB rule 1974 (b) due to totalizator error in the fourth race on Sept. 10.

This is the relevant item dealing with that from the stewards’ minutes under the headline TOTE ERROR:

“Tote operator notified this Board [of Stewards] at 12:21 that they had mistakenly withdrawn #5 STOCKED from the betting pools for the 4th race. In accordance with California Horse Racing Board rule 1974 (b) the horse ran for ‘purse money’ only and remained out of the betting pools.

“All departments and the trainer were notified of this decision. Announcements were made throughout the day and TV was running information on screens up until the race time. Refund: $601.89. An investigation into this matter is ongoing.”

Stocked finished second, a neck behind River House.

A day after the BC Juvenile Turf controversy Friday, Master of The Seas reared in the gate prior to the start of the BC Mile. He was backed out, then inspected, then recommended by Dr. Stead to be scratched, then scratched by the stewards, then unsaddled. Like Modern Games and Albahr, Master of The Seas is owned by Godolphin and trained by Appleby. Godolphin and Appleby won the BC Mile with Space Blues, as noted earlier.

Fifth to sixth in the early going, Modern Games was quite impressive in winning the BC Juvenile Turf by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:34.72. Tiz the Bomb ran second, but he finished first at odds of 7-1 for wagering purposes. Tiz the Bomb was coming off a win in the Grade II Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland, a performance that was all the more impressive because, prior to the start, he had busted through the gate (not led out of the gate like Modern Games at the Breeders’ Cup).

An Irish-bred Dubawi colt, Modern Games now has rattled off four consecutive victories. He came into the BC Juvenile off a Group III win in England on Sept. 23.

$2 MILLION JUVENILE (NOV. 5)

Results: (1) Corniche, who paid $4.80 as the favorite, (2) Pappacap, (3) Giant Game.

Winner: Owned by Speedway Stables; trained by Bob Baffert; ridden by Mike Smith.

Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 91. Essential Quality won the 2020 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland with a 95 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Juvenile: 113 (War Pass in 2007).

Recap: The complexion of this race changed significantly one day beforehand due to the 11-hour defection of undefeated Grade I winner Jack Christopher. I had installed Christopher Jack as the 9-5 morning-line favorite. Winner of the Grade I Champagne Stakes, he was withdrawn from the BC Juvenile due an issue with his left shin, a development that no doubt turned his trainer, Chad Brown, into Chad Frown.

Corniche, breaking from the outside post in the field of 11, was hustled to the front at once. He led all the way and got the job done by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:42.50 as the 7-5 favorite. With this victory, the $1.5 million auction purchase remained undefeated in three career starts. Hall of Famer Baffert trains the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt.

$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (NOV. 5)

Results: (1) Pizza Bianca, who paid $21.80, (2) Malavath, (3) Haughty.

Winner: Owned by Bobby Flay; trained by Christophe Clemente; ridden by Jose Ortiz.

Distance: 1 mile on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 79. Aunt Pearl won the 2020 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland with a 91 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf: 96 (Lady Eli in 2001, Sharing in 2019).

Recap: This was a wide-open race. An indication of that is I made Pizza Bianca a tepid 5-1 morning-line favorite.

Wild Beauty was shipped from England to win Woodbine’s Grade I Natalma Stakes on Sept. 19. She generally had been listed as the favorite by bettors in England for the BC Juvenile Fillies. But the decision was made to run Wild Beauty in a Group I race at Newmarket on Oct. 8 and not send her to the Breeders’ Cup. She finished fifth in the Oct. 8 race.

Pizza Bianca had some trouble in the Natalma before rallying to finish second behind Wild Beauty. The BC Juvenile was an inscrutable race in terms of trying to forecast favoritism. Mainly off Pizza Bianca’s Natalma effort, I decided to make her the lukewarm BC Juvenile morning-line favorite.

Owner and celebrity chef Bobby Flay pretty much had to talk Clemente into running Pizza Bianca in the BC Juvenile Fillies.

“To think we had a chance, we weren’t going to be 30-1 at the Breeders’ Cup,” Flay said Tuesday to Steve Byk on his SiriusXM radio program At the Races. “Actually, she was the morning-line favorite. So, you know, when I saw that, I said, ‘Somebody else thinks she should be here, too.’ ”

Turning for home, Pizza Bianca was last in the field of 14. And then, in what many regard as the finest ride at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, Ortiz masterfully negotiated his way through traffic while rallying and got up to win by a half-length at odds of 9-1. The Kentucky-bred Fastnet Rock filly completed her journey in 1:35.36.

It turned out the actual betting favorite was just under 5-1. That was Koala Princess, who finished seventh.

$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (NOV. 5)

Results: (1) Echo Zulu, who paid $3.60 as the favorite, (2) Juju’s Map, (3) Tarabi.

Winner: Owned by L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds; trained by Steve Asmussen; ridden by Joel Rosario.

Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 94. Vequist won the 2020 BC Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland with a 93 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Juvenile Fillies: 107 (Tempera in 2001).

Recap: No one has come close to defeating Echo Zulu yet.

Making it four victories by margins from four to 7 1/4 lengths, Echo Zulu led from start to finish in the BC Juvenile Fillies. She was 5 1/4 lengths clear of her nearest pursuer at the end of 1 1/16 miles while completing her trip in 1:42.24.

Hall of Famer Asmussen trains Echo Zulu, who made it three Grade I wins in a row. The Kentucky-bred filly previously had walloped her rivals in Saratoga’s Grade I Spinaway Stakes and Belmont’s Grade I Frizette Stakes.

Echo Zulu is by Gun Runner, who won the 2017 BC Classic at Del Mar by 2 1/4 lengths to complete a Horse of the Year campaign.

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (NOV. 5)

Results: (1) Twilight Gleaming, who paid $12.40, (2) Go Bears Go, (3) Kaufymaker.

Winner: Owned by Stonestreet Stables; trained by Wesley Ward; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

Distance: 5 furlongs on turf.

Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 84. Golden Pal won the 2020 BC Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland with a 90 Beyer. Top Beyer in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint: 90 (Bulletin in 2018, Golden Pal in 2020).

Recap: Twilight Gleaming won this year’s edition of the Wesley Ward Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Okay, that’s not the real name of this race. But it might as well be in light of Ward’s dominance.

The BC Juvenile Turf Sprint was first run in 2018 at Churchill Downs. Todd Pletcher trained the victorious Bulletin. Ward finished second with Chelsea Cloisters.

Twilight Gleaming provided Ward with his third straight win in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. Four Wheel Drive won in 2019 at Santa Anita, Golden Pal got the job done in 2020 at Keeneland, then Twilight Gleaming blasted to the front at once and went on to prevail by a half-length when able to hold off a host of late challengers. The Irish-bred National Defense filly completed five furlongs in :56.24.

This was Twilight Gleaming’s third win from five starts. This victory made her two for three on turf. She went into the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint off a win in France at Deauville on Aug. 7. She also won a five-furlong grass sprint against maidens at Belmont Park on May 9. Her lone defeat on turf was far from a disgrace. She ran second among 21 starters in the Group II Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in England on June 16.

Why in the world is this BC Juvenile Turf still a Grade II? This is the only Breeders’ Cup race that does not have a Grade I ranking. It’s ridiculous this isn’t yet a Grade I race.

The Juvenile Turf Sprint kicked off this year’s Breeders’ Cup action at Del Mar. The 39th Breeders’ Cup will be held next year at Keeneland on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:21 AM

Dave Cokin

Event: (141) Syracuse at (142) Louisville
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Syracuse +3.0 (-110)
The Orange contunue to improve and I like their chances of getting an outright win at Louisville. It's a very favorable scheduling spot with Syracuse off a bye following a really nice win. They should be the fresher team with Louisville off a real grinder against Clemson. The attacks for these two teams are very similar in terms of style and tendencies and there's little to choose on that count. In fact, this really looks like a toss up on all the numbers. That's where the scheduling dynamics provide what I consider a playable advantage on the Syracuse side. Orange plus the points and a small bonus call on the +145 or thereabouts Money Line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:22 AM

Drew Martin

Event: (185) Central Florida at (186) SMU

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 12PM EST
Play: SMU -7.5 (-110)
We get the chance to back a team that has been money at home against an opponent who is dealing with multiple key injuries and has historacally struggled on the road. The SMU Mustangs host the UCF Knights 12 noon ET kickoff and we are backing the Mustangs to win by margin.

SMU has only lost one game in the last three years in Dallas, including a 4-0 straight up and ATS home record this season. Sonny Dykes is getting great offensive production, due to QB Tanner Mordecai who has passed for 2,874 yards while completing 70.2% of his passes, with 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions (319.3 yards per game). On the defensive side which has been a huge weakness the past couple years for SMU, 1st year DC Jim Levitt is making a big positive difference, outside of Houston, no one has surpassed the 40 point mark.

UCF is in the midst of a tough 2021 campaign. A multitude of injuries have caused issues this season, the main stream concentrating on starting QB Dillion Gabriel out for year, however most injuries have occurred on the defensive side of the football. It has left the stop unit rather thin, now going against one of the most prolific offenses in the country this week is a big red flag. Plus, head coach Gus Malzahn broke his leg using a golf cart in practice and has not decided if he will be coaching from the sideline this week. Most importantly, this year's Knights team has benefited from the schedule masking some of their downfalls. UCF has dropped 5 of the last 7 ATS, the only two games UCF covered were against a Temple team that has likely already quit on the season and a Memphis team without their starting QB and was forced to start a freshman in his 1st road start.

This spot screams SMU and we are bombs away. Outside of the previously mentioned Temple game, UCF is 0-3 on the road falling by a combined -48 ATS points short, more of the same Saturday, bet SMU.
-7 is available at multiple Vegas and offshore sports books at time of posting. The play will be graded at -7.5, but I recommend shopping around for -7 to get the best of the number if possible. Let's cash!

*This is also a client play (3% not posted for sale)- Longterm client release

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:22 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Latvia at Norway
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 12PM EST
Play: PARLAY Norway & UNDER 3.5 Goals (-140)
World Cup Qualifying
First and foremost, the big news here is on the injury from and that's Erling Haaland is not playing for Norway as he is dealing with a hip flexor injury and is out the rest of this calendar year. Despite that, there is still a clear mismatch in talent between these teams.
With only two games to go in qualifying, this is a huge game for Norway. They trail Netherlands by two points and lead Turkey by two points and a win here will set them up for a winner-take-all showdown on Tuesday as they travel to Rotterdam to play the Dutch side.
Norway are 5-2-1 in qualifying so far with a 15:6 goal differential and only one of their eight games have finished Over 3.5 goals. Meanwhile Latvia are of course playing for nothing here, but have kept things rather respectable in qualifying so far. Even though they have just a 1-2-5 record, they haven't conceded many goals with an 8:13 goal differential and only two games finishing Over 3.5 goals.
I think we see the talent level of Norway control this game, while at the same time I don't see them running off and scoring 4 goals without Haaland up front.
TAKE NORWAY & UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 2% to -150, 1% to -165

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:23 AM

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (197) Georgia at (198) Tennessee
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Tennessee +20.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:23 AM

Ralph Michaels

Event: (197) Georgia at (198) Tennessee
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Tennessee +20.0 (-110)
#197 Tennessee +20 Georgia 3:30 PM
A play that just missed being a client All-Access

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:24 AM

Teddy Covers

Event: (197) Georgia at (198) Tennessee
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 3PM EST
Play: 1H Tennessee +11.0 (-110)
Take Tennessee FIRST HALF (#198)
Georgia’s defense has only allowed five touchdowns all year – true. But make no mistake about it – the Bulldogs stop unit hasn’t faced an uptempo, potent attack like that of the Vols in any game this season. Their only previous road games came at Auburn (held to a field goal again last week, not a great offense) and Vanderbilt (inept offensively) – this will be the toughest environment they’ve found themselves in all year. I’m not convinced that the Vols will be able to sustain their effort for 60 minutes, and I worry about Josh Heupel going for it from his own territory late in the game – like he did against Alabama, costing Vols full game backers the cover. So the preferred wager here is plus the points in the FIRST HALF, not the full game. Take Tennessee First Half.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:24 AM

SIG

Event: (165) Hawaii at (166) UNLV
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Hawaii -3.5 (-105)
The UNLV Rebels got their first win of the season last week, but will find it difficult to turn it into a winning streak as the Rainbow Warriors make the trip to Las Vegas on Saturday looking to break their two game losing streak.
The Running Rebels are a pathetic 4-17 ATS coming off a win, while the Hawaii is leading this series 15-9 ATS. Hawaii has faced a much tougher schedule than the Rebels and should welcome a “softer” opponent after falling to SDSU and Utah State their last two outings. Hawaii has won the last two outings and outgained the struggling Rebels O in both rushing and receiving this season.
Take Hawaii and lay the points they travel to Las Vegas on Saturday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:25 AM

Steve Merril

Event: (139) Maryland at (140) Michigan State
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Michigan State -13.0 (-110)
-Maryland is just 1-4 SU over their last 5 games after opening the season at 4-0; free fall
-Michigan State comes in off an expected first loss last week; expect a bounce back effort
-Spartans defense is allowing just 22.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season
Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:25 AM

Kyle Anthony

Event: (24501) Yair Rodriguez at (24502) Max Holloway
Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 6PM EST
Play: Max Holloway to win by points +120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2021, 12:26 AM

Adam Trigger

Event: (147) NC State at (148) Wake Forest
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: November 13, 2021 7PM EST
Play: NC State +1.5 (-110)