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Saturday 12/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Dec 04 '21, 7:08 PM in 2h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Wild
Play on: UNDER 6 -110
Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.
Both of these teams enter Saturday's game riding 'over' streaks. However, 16 of the last 18 meetings in this series have seen at least one team score two goals or less. I look for that trend to continue on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 in the Leafs last 17 road games after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 12-2 when the Leafs head out on the road off a home win by two goals or more with that spot producing just 4.8 total goals on average. As for the Wild, they've seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 home games when coming off consecutive victories by three goals or more, as is the case here, resulting in only 4.0 total goals on average in that situation. Take the under.
Dec 04 '21, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Alabama vs Gonzaga
Play on: Gonzaga -9 -110 at Caesars
My free play is on Gonzaga at 8:00 ET.
Nate Oats spent four years at Buffalo and went 59-13 in his last two, making the Big Dance each time. That allowed him the opportunity to come to Alabama and after a 16-15 first season (COVID) he led the Tide to a 26-7 record and a Sweet 16 appearance. Gone from that team is the 6-7 Jones (11.2 & 6.6), who was not only the SEC player-of-the-year but also the league's Defensive POY. Also gone is veteran guard Petty (12.6 & 5.2). However, the Tide have plenty of talent left. They opened No. 14 in the AP's preseason poll and visit Seattle with a 6-1 record and a No. 16 ranking.
Gonzaga has done everything BUT win a national championship under Mark Few and as all know, the 'Zags' were No. 1 wire-to-wire last season until losing to Baylor in the national championship game (finished 31-1). Gone from Gonzaga's near-perfect team last year are the 6-7 Kispert (18.6 & 5.0), PG Suggs (14.4-5.3-4.5) and guard Ayayi (12.0 & 6.9) but Mark Few's team hasn't missed a beat. The 6-10 Timme and PG Nembhard returned, joined by a recruiting haul that netted Gonzaga THREE of nation's top 25 high school recruits in ESPN's rankings, including 7-footer Chet Holmgren, the top overall prospect who has been called a "unicorn." Gonzaga impressed early with an 86-74 win over then-No. 5 Texas and an 83-63 rout of then-No. 2 UCLA. However, Gonzaga went ice-cold at the end of its Nov. 26 meeting in Las Vegas with then-No. 5 Duke, losing 84-81.
Alabama suffered a 72-68 upset loss on Thanksgiving Day to Rick Pitino's Iona at an ESPN tournament in Florida but has rebounded with victories over Drake and Miami. Its 96-64 rout of Miami on Sunday featured 53.6 percent shooting, including a 16-of-30 performance on three-pointers, and a 42-23 domination on the boards. "I thought our second half was as good as any we've played this year," Tide coach Nate Oats said. "It was good to get that under our belt before we left for Seattle. We made shots and got the ball moving." Alabama did return its top-two scorers from last season and guards Shackelford and Quinerly are again leading the way. Shackelford checks in at 15.0 & 6.4 and Quinerly at 14.6 & 6.0 APG. Swingman Ellis adds 13.3 & 7.3 plus freshman center Bediako (7.1 & 4.9) is starting, while 6-6 freshman Miles (8.4) is coming off the bench to give the team a spark. So are guards Davison (8.3) and Gurley (7.0), while the 6-6 Gary (8.6 & 6.8) starts up front with Bediako.
Mark Few didn't quite get the bounce-back effort he had hoped for after losing to Duke, as his team looked "disinterested'' in a 64-55 win over Tarleton State on Monday. Despite committing 16 turnovers and being tied with the lightly regarded Texans deep into the second half, the third-ranked Bulldogs used a 22-4 advantage in transition points to avoid what would have been a whopping upset. Gonzaga basically uses a six-man rotation this season, led by the 6-10 Timme (17.4 & 5.8), 6-7 freshman Strawther (14.0 & 7.0) and prized freshman Holmgren (13.8 & 7.0). The starting guards are transfer Bolton (11.6) and returning guard Nembhard (9.3 & 5.4 APG) plus 6th-man Hickman chips in 7.4.
This game will not be held at Gonzaga's home gym (McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane) but rather in Seattle, but it will still feel like a road game to the Tide. Gonzaga ranks first in Division I in field goal percentage (54.5) and tied for eighth in points per game (86.8). Holmgren is connecting on 71% of his FG attempts and Timme on 69% of his. Methinks that Few will get that "bounce-back' effort he was hoping on Monday, here. How could anyone expect the Bulldogs to get up" for Tarleton State? However, Alabama is a 'horse of a different color,' and the Tide gets 'rolled' in this one.
Dec 04 '21, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Michigan
Play on: Iowa +11 -110 at Caesars
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Iowa +11 The Key: The Michigan Wolverines are coming off one of the biggest wins in school history. It was the first time Jim Harbaugh has beaten Ohio State. The weather helped them in that game by mucking it up. And now even though they have a trip to the 4-team playoff on the line, they can't possibly be as motivated for this game as they were to beat Ohio State. I think there is a chance they come out sluggish here against Iowa and let the Hawkeyes hang around. Iowa has a great, physical defense and can match Michigan at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That will give them a chance to control this game and keep it low scoring to stay competitive for 4 quarters. The Hawkeyes yield just 17.3 PPG and 4.5 YPP this year. They are great at stopping the run, which is what Michigan wants to do. The Hawkeyes yield only 106 RYPG and 3.0 YPC. Kirk Ferentz is 29-7 ATS against good rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a road win. Take Iowa.
Dec 04 '21, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh
Play on: OVER 71 -103
This is the time of year when you MUST follow a proven BIG GAME WINNER. This season overall my BIG GAME releases in both pro and college football are a whopping 42-10. Saturday, I have the BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER between BAYLOR and OKLAHOMA STATE, the SEC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER between GEORGIA and ALABAMA, and the BIG TEN WINNER between IOWA and MICHIGAN. Cream rises to the top and guys this Saturday I WILL RISE FOR YOU.
Saturday’s FREE WINNER: OVER in the WAKE FOREST/PITTSBURGH matchup.
Games 319-320.
5:00 pm pst.
Now sports fans, I like both Wake Forest and Pitt very much. I have given out both teams several times this season and have done well because of it. One thing for sure here, there will be so much scoring in this matchup the staff over at Bank of America Stadium are gonna’ have to change out the bulbs in the scoreboard after the game. You’ve got the nation’s 3rd and 4th ranked scoring offenses matching up with each accounting for over 42 PPG. Pitt, 40 TD, 4000-yard passer, Kenny Pickett is at the helm. He and the 6th ranked aerial assault will dissect the lackluster 50h ranked Wake Forest pass defense. Trust me, after this performance, he will make a huge leap in the Heisman race. When the Demon Deacons have the ball, 34 TD, 3700-yard passer Sam Hartman and the 11th ranked passing offense will shred the Panthers 113th ranked pass defense. During this game folks, you’re gonna’ see so much fireworks in the sky, you’re gonna’ want to stand up and salute like it’s the 4th of July. The over is 6-2 in Wakes last 8 overall and 15-5 in Pitts last 20 overall. Take the over folks and win big here. Thank you.
Dec 04 '21, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh -2½ -110 at BetVegas
Your FREE PICK for Saturday night will be on the PITT PANTHERS. I know Wake is an explosive offense. We have had them a few times this year. But we have seen them fail against teams with a defense. Panthers have a defense. Not an elite bunch. But it is strong enough to slow down Wake enough to get us the win. Wake loss to Clemson and North Carolina who Pitt just happened to beat. That is what I am looking for here in a Championship. A good, common opponent that both teams have faced. Again. Both teams scoring about 43 game, but the Pitt defense is miles ahead of Wake. Take the PITT PANTHERS tonight as your ACC CHHAMPIONSHIP WINNER.
Dec 04 '21, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Iowa State vs Creighton
Play on: Iowa State +6½ -110 at Mirage
There is too much disrespect for Iowa State here. This isn't the 2-22 Cyclones' wreckage of last season. The Cyclones should not be getting this many points.
All the Cyclones have done is go 7-0 under new coach T.J. Otzelberger. They have earned their No. 19 ranking in the country by beating then ninth-ranked Memphis by 19 points, then-ranked No. 25 Xavier by 12 points and Oregon State by 10 points. The Beavers reached the Elite Eight last season.
Iowa State gives up five fewer points per game than Creighton, holding foes to 60.4 points a contest. The Cyclones are 18th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
Otzelberger was an assistant coach under Bluejays coach Greg McDermott when McDermott coached Iowa State. The two are very close. This is the first time the two coaches are facing each other. So the motivation factor will be high.
Iowa State has defeated Creighton during each of the past six meetings.
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