Saturday 12/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Piassek's Plays: A Need for Speed at Turfway
by John Piassek

In his regular gambling blog, John Piassek presents his top picks for the upcoming weekend in horse racing, offering betting options at different budget levels. Piassek’s Plays is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

Piassek has contributed to the horse racing sites The Racing Biz and Danonymous Racing and worked at Tioga Downs, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga Race Course. He joined America’s Best Racing in January 2021.

Saturday, Dec. 18

Turfway Park, Race 5, Prairie Bayou Stakes, post time 8:14 p.m. ET
Television schedule

Friday, Dec. 17: 2:30 p.m.-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Dec. 18: 12 p.m.-3 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Dec. 19: 2:30 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

#1 Megacity: The Prairie Bayou Stakes features a field of 11 horses going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. During the first two weeks of the Turfway Park meet, speed held up well on the Tapeta all-weather surface. Although front-runners have not been as strong this week, anyone who has early speed has to be seriously considered nonetheless.

Megacity has won three of his last five races in gate-to-wire style. In a conditioned allowance race on turf at Keeneland last out, he set the early pace and held on to win by 1 1/2 lengths. In the process, he defeated two horses he'll face again here, Big Dreaming and Mr Dumas. He's trying a new surface here, as he has not competed on Tapeta before. However, as long as he takes to the surface, he should be able to lead this field gate-to-wire once again. He has a great post position and dominant speed on a track playing to his style.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$6 to win on 1

$2 exacta: 1 with 2,7 ($4 total)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$15 to win on 1

$5 exacta: 1 with 2,7 ($10 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$30 to win on 1

$10 exacta: 1, with 2,7 ($20 total)

Turfway Park, Race 6, post time 8:46 p.m. ET


#2 Real Money: Gerardo Corrales has established himself as the top jockey at Turfway so far. Through the first two weeks of the season, he's won 13 races from 50 mounts, good for a 26% win rate. No one else won more than five races during the first two weeks.

He's got the mount on Real Money in this race, a first-level allowance optional-claiming race at 6 1/2 furlongs. This 5-year-old gelding is taking a drop in class from second-level races at Fair Grounds and Woodbine. In his last start on the Tapeta at Woodbine, he battled on the lead before tiring late. Now, he's facing an easier field and has speed toward the inside. If he can secure a spot on the lead and toward the inside, he's going to be tough to catch.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on 2

$5 exacta: 2 with 3

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$13 to win on 2

$4 exacta: 2 with 3,4,11 ($12 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on 2

$7 exacta: 2 with 3,4,11 ($21 total)

$1 trifecta: 2 with 3,4,11 with 3,4,9,11 ($9 total)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beginner’s Bet of the Week for Dec. 18: The Win Bet
December 16th, 2021 by John Piassek

This week marks the latest installment of a new series on America’s Best Racing, the Beginner’s Bet of the Week, sponsored by NYRA Bets. Each week, this blog will explore a new type of bet by explaining exactly what it is, how best to use that bet, and by putting the wager into practice in a race.

All the best December horse racing awaits at tracks like Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct, and 300+ tracks. With NYRA Bets, new users can enjoy a $200 Sign-Up Deposit Match Bonus anytime. Just use promo code ABR200 and get in the action today! And be sure to tune into “America’s Day at the Races” running on FS2 every afternoon this weekend.

This week, we’ll discuss the most straightforward bet of all: the win bet. The basics of the bet are in the name: if the horse you bet on comes in first, you win. At NYRA tracks, the minimum wager on a win bet is $1.

The win bet is one of the few wagers where you can get a good idea of how much you’ll win before the race goes off. The big board in the infield, often known as the “tote board,” gives the current win odds of each horse, as do various TV monitors all over the track. The odds are updated based on how much money is wagered on each horse. If a horse has a lot of money wagered on them, their odds will go down. If they’re not taking that much play, their odds go up.

If a horse is on the board at 4-1, that means that you’ll receive $4 for every $1 you bet should they win. A horse at 5-2 will pay off roughly $2.50 to win for every $1 invested, while a 9-5 shot will get you back $1.80 for every $1 wagered.

A simple formula to determine how much money you would get back for a win bet it to multiply the amount wagered x your horses odds and then and back the initial amount wagered, which is returned to you. For example, if you bet $2 to win on a horse at 4-1 odds, you would win $10 ($2x4+$2=$10). If you bet $5 on a runner at 10-1 odds, you would get back $55 (5x10+5).

The win bet is best used when you find a horse you really like who will go off at a good price. Betting to win is all about finding value. If you find a horse who you think will go off at a higher price than they should, that’s a prime opportunity to place a win bet. Everyone has their own definition of value, but generally horses who go off at 1-1 or less, or “odds-on,” are not great win bets. There’s not much value to be found in getting back less than you wagered on your original proposition, and in the long run, you’d have to be correct at an exceptional rate to make money betting those kinds of horses.

Saturday’s Aqueduct Win Bet

The sixth race on Saturday at Aqueduct is the New York Stallion Series for New York-sired 2-year-old colts and geldings at seven furlongs.

My top pick in this race is #2 Bustin Pietre for trainer Bruce Levine and jockey Kendrick Carmouche. He broke his maiden in impressive style in his career debut, leading from start to finish and drawing off to win by 5 ½ lengths. In the Notebook Stakes against New York-breds next out, he was well-beaten by Senbei, who was very impressive and may be a contender on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Bustin Pietre still ran on well in the stretch and finished second, three-quarters of a length clear of third place. There doesn’t appear to be anyone here as good as Senbei, which will make Bustin Pietre’s job a bit easier. With a good post position and tactical speed, Bustin Pietre has a great chance to pick up his first stakes win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robin Goodfellow's Racing Tips: Best bets for Saturday, December 18
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

ASCOT

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.40 So Said I

1.15 Messire Des Obeaux

1.50 Sully D'Oc Aa

2.25 Thyme Hill

3.00 Jerrysback

3.35 GARRY CLERMONT (nap)

GIMCRACK

12.40 Gaulois

1.15 Pencilfulloflead

1.50 Palmers Hill

2.25 RONALD PUMP (nap)

3.00 Cloth Cap (nb)

3.35 Tritonic


HAYDOCK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

11.50 Firak

12.20 Fugitif (nb)

12.55 Haute Estime

1.30 Destined To Shine

2.05 Mackelduff

2.40 Buzz De Turcoing

3.15 Welsh Saint

GIMCRACK

11.50 Chti Balko

12.20 Dreams Of Home

12.55 Mayhem Mya

1.30 Word Has It

2.05 Minella Charmer

2.40 Remastered

3.15 Ballymillsy


LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

11.40 Desert Lime

12.15 Belacqua

12.50 Amber Island

1.25 Soldier's Minute

2.00 Felix

2.35 Midnights Legacy

3.10 Forge Valley Lad

3.40 Rest Button

GIMCRACK

11.40 Mick's Spirit

12.15 Just A Tad

12.50 Unique Cut

1.25 Fizzy Feet

2.00 Felix

2.35 Deal A Dollar

3.10 Brass Clankers

3.40 Perfect Match

NEWMARKET - 12.15 BELACQUA (nap); 2.00 Felix (nb)


NEWCASTLE

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.00 Soft Risk

12.30 Royal Reserve

1.05 Bavington Bob

1.40 Ard Chros

2.15 Headscarf Lil

2.50 Trooper Turnbull

3.25 Trolley Boy

GIMCRACK

12.00 Soft Risk

12.30 Edmond Dantes

1.05 Bavington Bob

1.40 Fete Champetre

2.15 West End Lady

2.50 Maid O'malley

3.25 Bolton

NORTHERNER - 1.40 Fete Champetre (nb); 2.50 TROOPER TURNBULL (nap)


WOLVERHAMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.00 True Jem

4.30 Amanda Hug'n'Kiss

5.00 Crimson King

5.30 Pink Crystal

6.00 Exalted Angel

6.30 Surewecan

7.00 Eagle One

GIMCRACK

4.00 Streaky Bay

4.30 Nafee

5.00 Winklevi

5.30 Pink Crystal

6.00 Exalted Angel

6.30 First Verse

7.00 Percy Willis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, December 18
Posted on December 17, 2021 by David Aragona

RACE 1: EARLY VOTING (#7)

Among those with experience, Matt Doyle and Iconic Adventure are arguably the two with the best credentials. The former has yet to put forth a bad effort through 3 starts. The big question mark with Matt Doyle is the stretch-out to a mile, since progeny of Violence can be more proficient sprinters. He’s obviously a contender, but could be vulnerable to a lightly-raced rival with upside. I’m more intrigued by Iconic Adventure, who comes off a poor effort finishing behind Matt Doyle in that Nov. 20 maiden affair. However, he was riding the rail eating dirt much of the way, and briefly got caught in behind a tiring runner approaching the quarter pole. He’s bred to stretch out and probably deserves one more chance. Though, the quality of that Oct. 29 race won by Hagler is in serious doubt based on the disappointing performances of multiple runbacks. Some may make the case for My Brother Cam switching surfaces, though Michael Dickinson isn’t really known for targeting dirt races, winning just 2 on this surface over the past 5 years. I’m instead going with first time starter Early Voting. This $200k yearling purchase is by leading freshman sire Gun Runner, who wins with 22% of his debut runners. The dam was unraced and she has produced two minor winners, both of whom won on the dirt. And there’s real quality in the second generation, as the dam is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and top sire Speightstown. The dam is also a full-sister to Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity winner Irap (13-3-4-2, $1.6 million). Chad Brown is 4 for 15 (27%, $2.21 ROI) with first time starters in Aqueduct dirt routes over the past 5 years. There are some quick-looking workouts on the tab, the most recent of which matches Sound Money, a 3-year-old in the next race.

RACE 6: STIRDATPOT (#8)

The Great White Way Division is definitely the more wide open of the two New York Stallion Series Stakes on this card. There are a couple of turf horses in the mix who could attract support. Maseta might be the most naturally talented runner in this field based on his solid third-place finish in the Central Park last time. He does have some dirt pedigree on his dam’s side, but he’s only raced on turf and will be bet for the wrong reasons. The same goes for Geno, who had a tougher trip than Maseta last time, but has all turf pedigree from his dam. I want to go for horses who have raced primarily on dirt. Unique Unions is the one to beat in my view. He was prematurely pulled up in his debut after taking some awkward strides, but he rebounded with a dominant maiden win last time at Aqueduct. He has plenty of speed and should be contesting the pace from the rail. Though there are plenty of others who could try to attain forward position. My top pick is Stirdatpot, who ships in from Kentucky. This Florida-bred colt by Trinniberg debuted against open company at Churchill Downs facing a pretty strong field. The impressive winner returned to just miss in a stakes at Oaklawn in his next start, and the seventh and eighth place runners both returned to win with significantly improved speed figures. He has the tactical speed to be prominent throughout and is drawn well towards the outside. Trainer Genevieve Londono has been enjoying a strong year and I think she’s shipping in a horse with a real chance to make an impact. And he figures to be a square price due to the unfamiliar connections. I’d also want to use some other maidens at prices underneath. Safalow’s Mission can improve off the trainer change to Linda Rice after selling for $130k at Fasig-Tipton this month. I would even give a look to massive longshot Hot Stepper, who ran better than it appears last time when conservatively ridden early. This half-brother to Broadway Bay has more ability than his running lines indicate.

RACE 9: TAPIZEARANCE (#12)

Uncle George could vie for favoritism in this NY-bred finale, which drew a full field of runners. He’s never raced on dirt but he’d be tough for this group to handle if he were able to transfer his turf form to the main track. It’s probably not a good sign that he hasn’t tried dirt before now, since he’s probably been scratched out of a few off-the-turf affairs during that time. However, he does have some pedigree to handle this surface. His dam has produced some turf runners, but she’s also thrown multiple dirt winners Sioux and Storm Prophet. He’s trained well on dirt throughout his career, so he probably deserves a chance over it. I just can’t pick him on top at what may be a relatively short price. Raven Rocks may also take some money as he makes his first start off the claim for George Weaver. He’s returning just 9 days after beating a weaker field here when making his second start off a layoff. He needs some pace to close into, and should get it with plenty of speed signed on. However, I do think he needs to improve on his recent form to make it two in a row. I’m going in a different direction with Tapizearance. This gelding ran quite well two back, as he was contesting an honest pace and held well for second. He tried tougher foes at this level last time, facing talented New York-breds Big Bobby and Seven Lilies, and understandably wasn’t as competitive. Yet he also ran better than it seems that day, as he was wide the entire way against a rail bias. Now he’s encountering a much softer field at this level, and is getting a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano. I also find it promising that Linda Rice isn’t dropping him back in for a tag, instead electing to protect him at this allowance condition. This horse has routinely run his best races over this Aqueduct course, and I’m hopeful he can wake up with the return to this surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2021 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
December 17, 2021

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. MIGHTY HEART (9-5) – Dual Canadian classic winner in 2020 has proven more than just a hero north of the border this season with several strong efforts at or around this level. The issue he faces here is early company from the less-classy Blue Steel, who could potentially make him expend energy he’ll need for later. Alternatively, Velazquez could choose instead to sit right behind and take first crack, which this colt has been able to do effectively in the past. Logical threat.

2. BLUE STEEL (10-1) – Victory in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse would have capped a fine season, but connections willing to take a shot at this much tougher level. In essence, though, this nickel starter type appears in over his head. However, it appears he’ll play some role as one of the more obvious pace players, either by setting it up for others and/or softening up Mighty Heart.

3. TWENTY TWICE (10-1) – His quest to get past his second allowance condition this fall gained little traction, and thus the class hike to a G3 seems ambitious. However, keep in mind he started this form cycle coming back from a very long layoff. Effort two back wasn’t bad behind a next-out winner in a fast race for the level, and probably undone last time by the slow pace. Should get stronger fractions here, though class concerns remain.

4. EYE OF A JEDI (8-1) – Enjoyed a fine Gulfstream meet last winter, finishing second in this race and the Fred W. Hooper (G3) before capping it off with an emphatic victory in the Ghostzapper (G3) around two turns. However, after a get-fit run in the slop on Sept. 17, his last two runs have been well below par. Time perhaps catching up to him as he’ll be seven soon, and so far has been no match for Fearless. Peak runs last winter were Lasix-free, so we’ll see if that has any effect here, but in general enters with form that doesn’t inspire confidence.

5. SOUTH BEND (4-1) – It’s been feast or famine for the colt this year. Stakes tries on the dirt weren’t bad, though, the grass attempts can be forgiven, and he did score a win over Mighty Heart in their mutual season debut at Keeneland. However, worth noting his two wins this year have come when he’s been allowed to run with Lasix, which isn’t allowed for this race. Inconsistency the obvious drawback.

6. FEARLESS (8-5) –Perhaps in need of that tightener last month in the one-mile overnight handicap, which he lost by a length to a rival he was conceding five pounds to. However, worth noting a prep wasn’t necessary at all when taking the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in February after a much longer break. Half-length loss to eventual Met Mile (G1) winner Silver State in the Oaklawn H. (G2) easily the best performance turned in by any of these this season, and anything approximating that form will make him difficult to beat here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)
12 on the turf in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan


Looks like it will be a lovely day for racing in South Florida with a 24% chance of rain later in the day.

Should they take it off the turf it will be run on the new Tapeta course.

There are 12 entries and an also eligible for this race. I will only write about the top 6 contenders as I see them in the field.

#2 L'Imperator - Brown/Velasquez- won last out going longer against #1 Doswell and he's 5 for 9 all on turf. He get 99 speed at this distance and is a closing type runner. The connections and the record make him my number one pick.



#8 Analyze It - Brown/Hernandez - he appears to be the speed of the speed in this test and I expect Brown will send him if for no other reason than to set up L'Imperator for a kill. He has been going 100 miles a mile at a time but in the past he can get 100 when he goes longer. ITM play.



#12 Space Traveller - Walsh/Gaffalione - Stalwart animal but gets an outside post at at Gulfstream that is not kind to most runners. He looks best going longer and can get 100 on a good day. Another ITM play.



#1 Doswell - Tagg/Alvarado - Hard not to see this one being in play as he has competed with some tough characters in the past.



From here it's kinda what you like to see in a horse's performance lines and the expectation of the jockey making the right move to get ITM.



#11 Atone - Maker/Jaramillo - Maker brings two horses to the race and for me this is the better choice. He can front run or be tactical and might pick up some pieces judging by the pace.Another thing to note is if the race goes to the Tapeta he is the one of two in the race who has decent speed on the All Weather.



#6 Renaissance Frolic - Joseph/Gonzalez - Scratch though his last performance at Kentucky Downs. This a horse that likes to be ITM a lot and he likes Gulfstream. Along with the fact that his jockey is very keen in these situations I think he has a chance to make an impact at 30 to 1.


Handigambling

Here's how I see it for Handigambling I'll play a $2.50 trifecta

2 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12 = $ 50

From a practical standpoint that's enough spent on this race. You could make it a $0.50 wager and it will be $10



Good luck to everyone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct (3rd) Rvindicated, 8-1
(7th) Royal Realm, 3-1

Charles Town (4th) Prince Jacob, 9-2
(6th) Nazca Mystery, 9-2

Delta Downs (1st) From Now On, 7-2
(5th) Cape Town Willy, 10-1

Fair Grounds (1st) Benbow Cat, 8-1
(9th) Own Agenda, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (4th) Bourbon Over Ice, 9-2
(8th) Bronx Beauty, 6-1

Hawthorne (5th) Triple Scout, 4-1
(8th) Draw the Line, 10-1

Laurel (1st) Cuenca, 7-2
(5th) Blo My Budget, 5-1

Mahoning Valley (2nd) Gray Royality, 4-1
(7th) Diva Power, 6-1

Oaklawn Park (4th) Popster, 9-2
(8th) Long Range Toddy, 5-1

Tampa Bay Downs (7th) Union Gap, 7-2
(9th) Native Hawk, 8-1

Turfway Park (3rd) House Wrecker, 4-1
(6th) Greener Pastures, 3-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct

Race #1
12:20 ET - 1M, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
7 Early Voting 5/2 1st 21
5 My Brother Cam 7/2 2nd 42
4 Matt Doyle 3/1 3rd 46
1 Sul Pharoah 6/1 4th 60

Race #2
12:50 ET - 7F, Dirt, $40,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Sound Money 6/5 1st 36
7 Great Workout 9/2 2nd 69
3 Bar Fourteen 10/1 3rd 75
4 Mister Winston 1

Race #3
1:18 ET - 1M, Dirt, $30,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 St. Lukes 8/5 1st 37
9 Illustrious 5/2 2nd 63
7 Rvindicated 8/1 3rd 72
5 Writeitontheice 10/1 4th 72

Race #4
1:43 ET - 6 1/2F, Dirt, $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Wudda U Think Now 3/1 1st 44
1 Happy Medium 1/1 2nd 58
8 Chestertown 10/1 3rd 76
4 Foolish Ghost 12/1 4th 77

Race #5
2:11 ET - 6F, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
3 Golden Code 9/2 1st 50
7 Bold Journey 1/1 2nd 59
13 Infeasible 6/1 3rd 83
5 Bench Walk 10/1 4th 90

Race #6
2:39 ET - 7F, Dirt, New York Stallion Series S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
3 Maseta 7/2 1st 64
10 Kenner 6/1 2nd 77
2 Bustin Pietre 8/1 3rd 78
6 Geno 9/2 4th 87

Race #7
3:09 ET - 1M, Dirt, $50,000 Starter Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
7 No Burn 4/1 1st 51
1 Blake B. 7/2 2nd 72
3 F F Rocket 6/1 3rd 72
9 Royal Realm 3/1 4th 80

Race #8
3:37 ET - 7F, Dirt, New York Stallion Series S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Morning Matcha 8/5 1st 53
7 Howdyoumakeurmoney 3/1 2nd 57
3 Laoban's Legacy 8/1 3rd 78
4 Laochi 12/1 4th 85

Race #9
4:04 ET - 6 1/2F, Dirt, Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
2 Uncle George 7/2 1st 67
6 No Salt 10/1 2nd 90
3 Raven Rocks 4/1 3rd 90
1 Dee Bo 9/2 4th 90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay


Race #1
12:09 ET - 7F, Dirt, $25,000 Starter Optional Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
4 Volbeat 7/2 1st 36
2 Herecomesthehammer 3/1 2nd 51
6 Tactical Range 9/2 3rd 55
1 Fall Campaign 6/1 4th 59

Race #2
12:39 ET - 1M 40Y, Dirt, $6,250 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Dr. Ann 9/5 1st 39
4 Mizzen Air 7/2 2nd 50
1 Hush Y'all 5/2 3rd 60
2 Deputy Dora 5/1 4th 64

Race #3
1:09 ET - 5F, Turf, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
2 Quick Conversation 2/5 1st 26
1 Looking for Love 12/1 2nd 57
5 Inertia 15/1 3rd 75
4 Morning Cocktail 8/1 4th 77

Race #4
1:39 ET - 1M 40Y, Dirt, $10,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
9 Jack Rabbit Quick 6/1 1st 51
1 Super Shoes 7/5 2nd 58
3 Tiz Triumphant 3/1 3rd 65
6 Giovane's Promise 5/1 4th 76

Race #5
2:15 ET - 1 1/16M, Turf, $32,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
10 Buffalo Dancer 4/1 1st 64
1 Sign and Seal 3/1 2nd 68
8 Gold Watch 5/1 3rd 75
12 I'm Buzzy 6/1 4th 77

Race #6
2:45 ET - 6F, Dirt, $16,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
1 In the Loop 5/2 1st 42
2 Codetowin 3/1 2nd 43
9 Yes Sir Robert 6/1 3rd 68
8 Expensive Style 9/2 4th 75

Race #7
3:15 ET - 6F, Dirt, $5,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
5 Firehorn 4/1 1st 49
8 Union Gap 7/2 2nd 57
3 Highland Park Hero 4/1 3rd 59
4 Mighty Ghost 9/2 4th 70

Race #8
3:45 ET - 1 1/16M, Turf, Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
14 Wicked Groove 5/1 1st 59
7 World Tour 5/2 2nd 81
2 Tetella 8/1 3rd 91
1 Bean Counter 10/1 4th 93

Race #9
4:15 ET - 7F, Dirt, $32,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
2 Awesome Anywhere 9/5 1st 55
8 Imperial King 4/1 2nd 66
1 Litigant 15/1 3rd 73
5 Native Hawk 8/1 4th 73

Race #10
4:45 ET - 1M, Turf, $16,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
10 Map the Moment 5/2 1st 58
12 La Rusia 6/1 2nd 77
3 Musetta 4/1 3rd 92
5 Dr Kaak 12/1 4th 93

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn

Race #1
12:30 CT - 1M, Dirt, $10,000 Starter Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
8 Knight's Cross 3/1 1st 46
2 Lord Dragon 6/1 2nd 49
7 Colosi 5/2 3rd 59
6 Awesome Saturday 7/2 4th 69

Race #2
12:58 CT - 6F, Dirt, $20,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
11 Lord M 5/2 1st 56
8 Roll Dinero Roll 7/2 2nd 59
7 Doc Irwin 8/1 3rd 81
2 Lou's Arrow 9/2 4th 83

Race #3
1:26 CT - 1M, Dirt, $16,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
9 Wartime Hero 9/5 1st 35
1 Mau Mau 3/1 2nd 57
8 Most Sandisfactory 12/1 3rd 77
2 Rogallo 10/1 4th 86

Race #4
1:55 CT - 1M, Dirt, $30,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
8 Pure Rocket 5/2 1st 48
5 La Flecha 6/1 2nd 62
3 Runquietly 8/1 3rd 72
7 Popster 9/2 4th 75

Race #5
2:21 CT - 6F, Dirt, $30,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
4 The Rock Says 4/1 1st 62
3 Brother Aaron 3/1 2nd 64
5 U. S. Steel 5/1 3rd 72
10 Cold as Hell 10/1 4th 82

Race #6
2:51 CT - 1 1/16M, Dirt, $10,000 Starter Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
3 Home Run Trick 5/1 1st 56
6 Exemplar 3/1 2nd 65
8 Hidden Promise 15/1 3rd 78
1 Tez 7/2 4th 80

Race #7
3:19 CT - 6F, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Icy Stare Down 3/1 1st 49
4 Runaway Wife 5/1 2nd 54
7 Mommasgottarun 9/2 3rd 57
5 The Gang That Sang 8/1 4th 78

Race #8
3:46 CT - 6F, Dirt, Allowance
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
8 C Z Rocket 5/2 1st 55
7 Mucho 3/1 2nd 55
2 Sir Alfred James 9/2 3rd 57
1 County Final 5/1 4th 59

Race #9
4:13 CT - 1 1/8M, Dirt, Tinsel S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
7 Warrior's Charge 5/2 1st 41
2 Lone Rock 8/5 2nd 52
6 Thomas Shelby 8/1 3rd 61
4 Title Ready 9/2 4th 66

Race #10
4:40 CT - 1 1/16M, Dirt, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
5 Quick to Blame 3/1 1st 64
12 Chileno 7/2 2nd 73
4 Call Me Jamal 8/1 3rd 75
10 Mistical Curlin 6/1 4th 94

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park

Race #1
12:00 ET - 5F, Turf, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
2 Bourbon Ready 5/2 1st 44
8 Mogalu 3/1 2nd 50
9 Jinxed (IRE) 9/2 3rd 56
7 Carnivore 8/1 4th 62

Race #2
12:30 ET - 1M 70Y, All Weather Track, $35,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
2 Ukiyo 6/5 1st 38
6 Only Time 5/2 2nd 44
7 Mountain Bellatrix 6/1 3rd 54
1 Girly the Butcher 8/1 4th 66

Race #3
12:58 ET - 6F, Dirt, $6,250 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
1 Wicked Temptations 3/1 1st 43
6 Large 7/2 2nd 47
2 Young Flint 8/1 3rd 53
4 Doo Wop Don 5/2 4th 64

Race #4
1:26 ET - 6 1/2F, Dirt, $25,000 Maiden Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
4 Knights Bird 7/2 1st 31
1 Ruling Front 5/1 2nd 57
8 Shea D Capture 4/1 3rd 60
7 Valiant Avenger 3/1 4th 66

Race #5
1:54 ET - 1M, Turf, Suwannee River S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
3 Shifty She 3/1 1st 58
9 Summering 8/1 2nd 70
7 Alms 4/1 3rd 73
6 Classic Lady 15/1 4th 78

Race #6
2:28 ET - 1M, Dirt, Rampart S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Dream Marie 9/5 1st 44
4 Queen Nekia 3/1 2nd 46
3 Dance d'Oro 7/2 3rd 47
1 Allworthy 4/1 4th 56

Race #7
2:58 ET - 5 1/2F, All Weather Track, $10,000 Claiming
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
7 Allegedly Perfect 5/2 1st 39
6 Star Weaver 4/1 2nd 87
8 Sky Magician 12/1 3rd 90
11 Hurricane Hill 5/1 4th 95

Race #8
3:28 ET - 6F, Dirt, Sugar Swirl S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
5 Center Aisle 2/1 1st 46
3 Frank's Rockette 9/5 2nd 58
1 Quinoa Tifah 6/1 3rd 62
7 Bronx Beauty 6/1 4th 66

Race #9
3:59 ET - 1 1/16M, Dirt, Harlan's Holiday S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
6 Fearless 8/5 1st 35
1 Mighty Heart 9/5 2nd 46
5 South Bend 4/1 3rd 49
4 Eye of a Jedi 8/1 4th 63

Race #10
4:32 ET - 1 1/8M, Turf, Ft. Lauderdale S.
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
8 Analyze It 4/1 1st 56
12 Space Traveller (GB) 3/1 2nd 63
2 L'Imperator (FR) 5/2 3rd 69
11 Atone 12/1 4th 88

Race #11
5:05 ET - 1 1/16M, Turf, Maiden Special Weight
# Picks M/L Ranking Score
5 Misbehaved 2/1 1st 51
10 Hail to Thee 5/1 2nd 69
9 Ridley's Major 5/2 3rd 71
14 Gooch Go Bragh 4/1 4th 77

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

December 18, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The feature at the Meadowlands goes in Race 9, the Twas The Week Before Christmas Final with a $66,000 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Western Fame (5-1)-This fine 8-year-old has banked >$1.9 million but has only 1 win on an off-track. Drops and went in 150.3 last week in the slop and now Tetrick will be steering. Looks like a major player and should race close to the lead from the start.
4-DA Delightful (8-1)-Came out of the same race as the one above and fits better at this level. Had an impressive finish last week and that was also the case in the previous 2 starts. Dunn will be in the bike and could be bet down off the morning line but should be a fair price.

Race 7

4-Double Account (9/2)-Made a rare break last week and was in very tough anyway. Willing to overlook with this drop to the level of a recent win and Bartlett can be aggressive here. This post draw won't hurt and might be overlooked at the windows with Gingras off to steer #9 for Burke.
6-Mystical Wynn (5-1)-Hasn't won in 9 tries at the Big M but comes off a big effort and the trip was rough. Brennan could have the pedal down and land in an up-close seat.

Race 8

4-Tellitsabb (3-1)-Yonkers shippers is having a nice year and Dunn lands the assignment. Fits well with this group in a contentious race. A picture is a possibility in M1 debut.
5-Leon David (4-1)-Got on the engine last week and those were tough conditions to wire a field. Tetrick takes a seat and will look for a better result. Might get the top and not look back.
7-Forever Fav (7/2)-This is another Yonkers shipper, and the Travis Alexander trainee is looking to add to a $182k bankroll. Gingras should be blasting out and may need to outmuscle the one above for the point. Dangerous with the lead and has the pilot who can steal a quarter.

Race 9

2-Palomar (10-1)-Has been trying hard and finishing well. This post draw should help, and this race could set-up for a closer. Looks like a major threat if near the top turning for the wire.
4-Caviart Luca (10-1)-Gingras is between the pipes, and he will be in go-mode from the start. Comes off a big try last week and almost wired the field on a very windy night.
6-Bet Nineteen (9/2)-Landed here from Hoosier on a 2-race win streak and didn't miss a beat winning his M1 debut last week. Hasn't lost since going on Lasix and best to not overlook.
7-Save Me A Dance (7/2)-Was claimed for $100k on 12-4, then put in for a $150k tag and cashed the top check. Versatile 4-year-old can win racing near the top of the stack or coming off cover.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,4/4,6/4,5,7/2,4,6,7
Total Bet=$24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What You Need to Know - Saturday, December 18, 2021

December 18, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s “What Your Need to Know”
December 18, 2021


AQUEDUCT - EIGHTH RACE (Post time: 3:37 ET)

The New York Stallion Series Stakes (filly division) attracted a field of 11, with recent big figure earner Morning Matcha (8/5) and the all-weather stakes winning Howdyoumakeourmoney (3-1) expected to get much of the play. A victory by either one would not be surprising. However, we are going to look elsewhere because we are inclined to distrust the form at Parx and have no idea whether ‘Money needs synthetic to show her best.

Let’s instead take a close look at the second-time starting maiden Yo Cuz. Flat out given a race in her debut, the Bill Mott-trained filly broke slowly to fall far back and trail early, remained under a stout hold to the head of the lane, and then was asked to finish up a bit and responded quite well, closing a gap on her own courage before galloping out past the entire field by the time they reached the clubhouse turn. J. L. Ortiz rides her back, and with $500,000 on the line and with the educational run out of the way this daughter of Laoban will be allowed to show what she can do. With an extra furlong to work with combined with a significant forward move that we’re expecting her to produce, she’s worth a play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near her morning line of 9/2.

*

GULFSTREAM PARK - ELEVENTH RACE (Post time: 5:05 ET)

The morning line favorite at 2-1 in this middle distance turf event for juveniles is Misbehaved, most likely because he’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who has been on fire during the first two weeks of the Gulfstream Park championship season. And, in a race in which the other contenders doesn’t look particularly formidable, punters might be included to look past the colt’s three-race resume that includes as failure as the favorite in all three starts, most recently when ninth of 11 in a similar grass affair at Belmont Park last month. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help, and on numbers he’s still better than the others in the field with prior experience, but if he wins at a short price, so be it.

Instead, let’s take a close look at the newcomer from Kelsey Danner’s barn, Scarab, listed at an enticing 8-1 on the morning line. The son of Cairo Prince sports a steady, healthy series of workouts that should have him plenty fit for a top performance first crack out of the box. His most recent work at Palm Meadows six days ago was clocked in :47.15 seconds around dogs on turf, the same final time assigned to his older stable mate Smokin’ Jay, winner of the Allied Forces Stakes at Belmont Park in September (we’re assuming they worked together). From a solid barn with good stats across the board, this homebred 2-year-old offers plenty to like and in a race that is begging to be won by a fresh face, he fits the bill.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Achilles He was no match for a runaway winner in the debut over the Arlington Polytrack, but he might be able to step forward off that effort and does not appear to be meeting a really deep cast in this auction price restricted maiden.
#3 Belgrade He has a big claim on this at first asking for a capable team, and as mentioned above, there isn't a whole lot to worry about on paper in this group, so he probably doesn't need to be a star to land this.
#2 Tricolour He stepped forward a bit in that second start when trying maiden claiming company in the local debut, and the blinkers give him a little bit of upside here that might be enough to be competitive with these.
Race Summary Achilles debuted in a decent spot in Chicago, and he's meeting a very modest bunch in this conditioned maiden claimer. He likely has some upside here in this second start, and he won't need much of it to score here.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Warrior in Chief He'll only go if this comes over to the main track, but there is some rain in the forecast that might give him that chance. He has some pace to get in the mix early on, and he brings some pretty decent running lines with him.
#6 Midnight Tea Time He's probably a short kind of price if this is on the lawn, but his baseline form right now seems a slight cut above these, and a couple of potential pace players might set things up nicely for him.
#7 Entertainment He has turned in a few pretty nice races while showing solid route pace, but he can be a bit all or nothing in the lane, and I worry the stretchout pace of #2 Mr. Hustle might be too much of a thorn in his side.
Race Summary Warrior in Chief has a handful of recent running lines that could make him very tough from right up on the splits if this one comes over to the main track, but I'll single the likely chalk #6 Midnight Tea Time if this stays on.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Beachcombing Like him on either surface today after he showed some pace and faded late off the layoff last out. He can be tighter with that race under his belt, and he may have been up on an opening quarter that was just a touch too quick last out.
#4 Attorney Tim He's 1-for-8 here, but he has shown a pretty sharp turn of foot in some of his local tries. His last was really solid, but I'm not sure he has much upside off that kind of effort, and it seems just as likely that he'd take at least a small step back off a pretty big effort by his standards.
#5 Fortuity He comes right back at the same level off the claim after scoring while in for the tag last time out, and he's protected while in for the allowance condition today. He might be a decent enough price on the move to this barn.
Race Summary Beachcombing has had an interesting career so far and has turned in all of his best career efforts over the grass here. He's a threat on the main track if this gets rained over, as his last off turf try produced an easy score on the Louisiana Downs dirt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 CHICKEN NUGGET Never in it as the fave, wake-up candidate on another barn change.
#9 MIND TRIP Won 4 of last 5 starts at this level, draws post 9.
#2 IMMA BE Led by city block, finished last at odds-on.
Race Summary Chicken Nugget changes connections for the fourth consecuitve start and steps up in class off a well-beaten try as the favorite. He trailed most of the way from post 8, raced extremely wide on the turn and in the stretch and finished on his own courage. He seeks a re-run of a winning second-over rally two back. Bet on him to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 LONG WEEKEND A Has speed, rounding to good race, lures Filion.
#4 MAPPOS LION Won 12 of 16 and $50k as heavy favorite most starts.
#6 LANCASTER BOMBER Can be excused for comeback from post 8, seeks return to consistent form.
Race Summary Long Weekend chased the favorite through a :55.4 middle half at Flamboro before the deep-closing winner passed by. He can carry his speed farther at a good price off that much improved effort. Play 3-4 and 3-6 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#4 ROCKME ROLLME Lacked running room against better, goes well in here.
#2 JM JACK OF HEARTS Chased even-money winner around the track in same spot.
#9 RESPECT OUR FLAG Looks to build on $74k season, will be running late.
Race Summary Rockme Rollme saved ground in fourth, stayed in while the outer flow developed and was blocked through the stretch. He exited several fast heats prior and figures tough with class relief. Play 4-2 and 4-9 exactas.