Saturday 1/29/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jon White: Pegasus Selections, Plus Derby Top 10

January 27, 2022 | By Jon White

Will presumptive 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go conclude his racing career by registering his fifth straight victory?

Can Life Is Good get the job done when racing farther than 1 1/16 miles for the first time?

Who is going to get the early lead, Knicks Go or Life Is Good?

Can either Knicks Go or Life Is Good succeed if they have to go into stalk mode?

Is it possible that Knicks Go and Life Is Good go at each other so fiercely in the early furlongs that they race each other into defeat and set the table for someone to rally for an upset triumph?

If neither Knicks Go nor Life Is Good wins, then who does?

Those are but some of the tantalizing questions to be answered when Gulfstream Park presents the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational presented by 1/ST BET this Saturday.

And so the stage now is set for the highly anticipated showdown between Knicks Go and Life Is Good.

The Pegasus World Cup will be showcased on a national NBC telecast from 4:30 to 6 p.m. ET.

Knicks Go, a 6-year-old Maryland-bred son of Paynter trained by Brad Cox, is cutting back in distance to 1 1/8 miles off his sparkling front-running 2 3/4-length victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles on Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

Life Is Good, a 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles off his stellar front-running 5 3/4-length victory in the Grade I BC Dirt Mile on Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

The late, great Daily Racing Form writer Charlie Hatton is widely credited for being the person responsible for popularizing the linkage of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes as a “Triple Crown,” which evolved into being the sport’s most coveted prize in this country.

From time to time, when Hatton wrote about a specific race that had been run, he would refer to it as having been a virtual “match within a race.” In other words, though there were many contestants, the race essentially had boiled down to a battle between two of them.

Well, I’d say this particular phrase certainly is an apt characterization of how the vast majority of people perceive the upcoming clash between Knicks Go and Life Is Good. It appears that it will be a match race between them within the field of nine.

To be perfectly frank, it will be shocking if someone other than Knicks Go or Life Is Good is posing for pictures after this Saturday’s Pegasus.

Not only that, due to Knicks Go and Life Is Good possessing the same front-running style, the opening furlong of the Pegasus will likely hold a measure of suspense worthy of an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

Obviously, the break is going to be extremely important for both Knicks Go and Life Is Good. If one of them does not leave the gate in alert fashion, that could spell doom for them. A less-than-ideal start would immediately put either Knicks Go or Life Is Good at a disadvantage.

If they do both begin quickly, then the cat-and-mouse game between Joel Rosario on Knicks Go and Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Life Is Good in the run to the first turn will be fascinating. Just how aggressive will Rosario and Ortiz be early?

It would seem that Rosario has no choice but to “go” with Knicks Go after they drew the inside post position. Can they afford to let Life Is Good get the jump on them early?

If the two protagonists both break well, can Knicks Go clear Life Is Good early, or vice versa? I honestly don’t know. The way I see it, there is a good chance that the way the early portion of the race unfolds will be for Knicks Go and Life Is Good to find themselves vying for the lead, side-by-side, in the run to the clubhouse turn. If that does indeed turn out to be the case, I will not be surprised if Knicks Go then manages to increase his advantage to a length or more on that first turn because of just how wonderfully he negotiates a turn.

Consider what I wrote about Knicks Go’s proficiency to run on a turn following his win in Saratoga’s Grade I Whitney Stakes at 1 1/8 miles last summer:

“Knicks Go began alertly in the Whitney, but he did not immediately clear the field. He vied for the lead in the run to the first turn while racing outside the filly Swiss Skydiver. But then, in the blink of an eye on the turn, Knicks Go opened a daylight advantage before reaching the backstretch.

“Running on a turn has become something of a weapon for Knicks Go. He seems to possess the athleticism to navigate a turn quicker than his adversaries. His prowess on a turn perhaps helps explain all of Knicks Go’s wins and losses after Cox took over the training duties prior to Knicks Go’s first 2020 start.”

Going into this Saturday’s Pegasus, Knicks Go is an extraordinary eight for eight in two-turn races for Cox. Both of Knicks Go’s two defeats for Cox have occurred when Knicks Go has raced around only one turn.

Knicks Go finished fourth in the Group I, $20 million Saudi Cup at about 1 1/8 miles around one turn last year on Feb. 20. He then also ran fourth in the Grade I, $1 million Met Mile around one turn at Belmont Park on June 5.

But before getting too carried away with the fact that Knicks Go has yet to lose a two-turn race for Cox, it’s also to Life Is Good’s credit that he is three for three when competing in a two-turn race. Life Is Good won the Grade III Sham Stakes and Grade II San Felipe Stakes around two turns for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert last year, then added a two-turn victory in the BC Dirt Mile for Pletcher.

If it turns out that Life Is Good is able to get in front of Knicks Go by a length or more before reaching the backstretch this Saturday, which definitely is a possibility, I think Knicks Go’s chances to win will be reduced. But in having to make the difficult decision as to which one of these equine titans to pick, I am going to place my trust in Knicks Go to keep that from happening. The main thing is I’m just not about to pick against Knicks Go due to his glowing eight-for-eight record in two-turn races for Cox.

My Pegasus selections are below:

1. Knicks Go (6-5 morning-line favorite)
2. Life Is Good (7-5)
3. Stilleto Boy (20-1)
4. Sir Winston (12-1)

When I picked Knicks Go to win last year’s Pegasus, he did not let me down. One of the reasons he was my top choice last year was he fit the profile of a typical Pegasus victor. And who fits the profile of a typical Pegasus winner this year? Again, it’s Knicks Go.

The previous Pegasus winners have been Arrogate in 2017, Gun Runner in 2018, City of Light in 2019, Mucho Gusto in 2020 and Knicks Go in 2021.

In terms of a winning profile, four of the past five Pegasus winners (Arrogate, Gun Runner, City of Light and Knicks Go) sported the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and also had last started in a Breeders’ Cup race.

Going into this year’s Pegasus, Knicks Go owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and, yes, he last started in a Breeders’ Cup race. His BC Classic win when last seen under silks produced a 112 Beyer. Life Is Good’s Beyer last-time out in the BC Dirt Mile was a 109.

WHO ELSE CAN HIT THE BOARD?

I see Stilleto Boy as someone capable of coming away with minor award. He has finished second or third in three of his last four starts.

Stilleto Boy ran third in the Shared Belief Stakes last Aug. 29, second in the Grade I Awesome Again Stakes on Oct. 2, fifth in the BC Classic, then third in the Grade I Malibu on Dec. 26.

Sir Winston comes into the Pegasus having finished one-two in four consecutive starts. When last seen in action, he won the Grade III Valedictory Stakes at Woodbine on Dec. 5.

While Sir Winston’s last four starts all came on a synthetic surface at Woodbine, he did pull off a 10-1 upset on the dirt in the Grade I Belmont Stakes in 2019.

BEYER SPEED FIGURE FOR EACH PEGASUS WINNER

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures for the Pegasus World Cup winners prior to this year:

2021 Knicks Go (108)
2020 Mucho Gusto (107)
2019 City of Light (112)
2018 Gun Runner (120)
2017 Arrogate (119)

MY KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

Tiz the Bomb remains No. 1 after working faster than No. 2 Smile Happy last Sunday at Gulfstream Park. Kenny McPeek trains the two talented 3-year-old colts.

According to Equibase, Tiz the Bomb was clocked in 1:01.24 (or 1:01 1/5 in fifths) in last Sunday’s five-furlong drill. Smile Happy was timed in 1:01.49 (1:01 2/5) for the same distance.

Tiz the Bomb previously had gone toe-to-toe with Smile Happy in Gulfstream workouts on the dirt Jan. 8 and Jan. 15. Each colt received the same clocking in those two team drills.

Smile Happy is two for two. The Kentucky-bred Runhappy colt won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27. That followed a 5 1/2-length maiden score at Keeneland on Oct. 29.

According to McPeek, the plan is for Smile Happy to make his 2022 debut in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 19.

Tiz the Bomb is scheduled to make his first start of the year in Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 5.

Working so well on the dirt lately is significant for Tiz the Bomb because the Kentuky-bred Hit It a Bomb colt will be switching back to dirt in the Holy Bull.

The last time that Tiz the Bomb raced on dirt, he crushed maidens at Ellis Park when he won by 14 1/4 lengths “in hand” at one mile on July 2. He then won back-to-back grass races (Kentucky Downs Juvenile on Sept. 6 and Grade II Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 10) before finishing a strong second to Modern Games in the Grade I BC Juvenile Turf at Del Mar on Nov. 5.

Following Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes last Saturday, Epicenter debuts on my Top 10 at No. 6. Despite setting a swift pace of :23.40, :47.01, 1:12.16 in the 1 1/16-mile race, he lost by a scant nose to 28-1 longshot Call Me Midnight.

To put that :47.01 split into perspective, Midnight Bourbon’s half-mile fraction in the Grade III Louisiana Stakes was :48.25. He went on to finish second to Mandaloun, who completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.52.

Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon are two of the best older horses in the country.

The final time in the Lecomte was 1:44.36. Pappacap, the slight 3-2 favorite, loomed boldly at the top of the lane before having to settle for third while losing by three-quarters of a length. Epicenter was sent off at odds of 8-5.

Pappacap was No. 4 on my Top 10 last week. In light of his defeat in the Lecomte, Pappacap slides down to No. 7 this week, one spot below Epicenter.

Even though Call Me Midnight won the Lecomte, he does not crack my Top 10 this week. But he does make his way onto my “Bubbling Under the Top 10” list.

This week’s Kentucky Derby Top 10 is below:

1. Tiz the Bomb
2. Smile Happy
3. Corniche
4. Messier
5. Classic Causeway
6. Epicenter
7. Pappacap
8. Slow Down Andy
9. Giant Game
10. Newgrange

BUBBLING UNDER THE TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

American Icon
Belgrade
Call Me Midnight
Chasing Time
Comandperformance
Courvoisier
Costa Terra
Dash Attack
Doppelganger
Early Voting
Emmanuel
Glider
God of Love
Golden Glider
Gunite
High Oak
H P Moon
Jack Christopher
Mackinnon
Major General
Make It Big
Mo Donegal
My Prankster
Oviatt Class
Rattle N Roll
Rockefeller
Simplification
Volcanic
Wharton
White Abarrio
Wit
Zandon

SMILE HAPPY GETS RESPECT IN KDFW POOL 2

The aforementioned Smile Happy, No. 1 on my Top 10, was the 8-1 individual favorite in Pool 2 of Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) that closed last Sunday.

Interestingly, it was none other than my No. 1 ranked Tiz the Bomb who ended up being the 10-1 second favorite among individual horses.

As expected, the “All Others” option was the favorite in Pool 2 of the KDFW, closing at 9-5.

When I revealed my first Kentucky Derby Top 10 a couple of weeks ago, Tiz the Bomb was listed at 100-1 in future wagering at Las Vegas’ Circa, according to horseracingnation’s Ron Flatter. At that time, Tiz the Bomb did not have any odds at Las Vegas’ Caesars William Hill.

Tiz the Bomb’s odds at Circa dropped to 50-1 last week. He still had no odds at Caesars William Hill.

This week’s odds for Tiz the Bomb at Circa are down to 40-1. Flatter listed him at 120-1 at Caesars William Hill.

The 120-1 at Caesars William Hill and even the 40-1 at Circa still are extremely generous prices vis-a-vis his 10-1 in KDFW Pool 2.

Some might be wondering why undefeated Corniche, winner of the Grade I BC Juvenile, or any other Baffert-trained 3-year-old was not among the individual horses in Pool 2 of the KDFW. It’s a continuation of the policy that was put in place for Pool 1 last November. That policy stems from Churchill Downs banning Baffert from running horses in the 2022 and 2023 Kentucky Derbies as a result of Medina Spirit testing positive for a medication violation after finishing first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

However, at this time Medina Spirit still is the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission has not disqualified him. In fact, the KHRC has not even held a hearing or issued any penalties with respect to this matter.

Prior to the start of wagering in Pool 1 of the KDFW, Churchill Downs issued a news release stating in part that “Pool 1 assumes the horses under the care of trainers suspended from competing in the 2022 Kentucky Derby will not be under consideration. To that end, prospects Corniche, Messier, Pinehurst and Rockefeller are not among the 22 individual betting interests and are included in the pari-mutuel field” also known as the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts & Geldings” option. There also was an “All 3-Year-Old Fillies” option in Pool 1, but not in Pool 2.

Below are the final odds for Pool 2 of the 2022 KDFW:

9-5 “All Others”
8-1 Smile Happy
10-1 Tiz the Bomb
14-1 Jack Christopher
17-1 Chasing Time
17-1 Emmanuel
20-1 Rattle N Roll
20-1 Slow Down Andy
23-1 Mo Donegal
24-1 Epicenter
24-1 Pappacap
25-1 Zandon
28-1 Giant Game
34-1 Dash Attack
38-1 High Oak
39-1 Courvoisier
41-1 Commandperformance
41-1 Major General
43-1 Simplification
47-1 Varatti
51-1 Classic Causeway
77-1 Trafalgar
85-1 Make It Big
171-1 White Abarrio

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Gulfstream Park Picks: Pegasus World Cup Day LP4 ticket on January 29
By J.N. Campbell


Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, January 29, 2022

Race 1: 11-4-6-1
Race 2: 3-10-6-1
Race 3: 5-3-8-9
Race 4: 9-3-5-11
Race 5: 6-4-9-2
Race 6: 4-7-1-3
Race 7: 10-9-1-4
Race 8: 7-5-2-8
Race 9: 3-9-1-4
Race 10: 1-8-3-7
Race 11: 3-8-7-6
Race 12: 4-1-6-2
**Most Likely Winner: LIG #4 (Race 12)**
**Best Value: Lady Speightspeare #3 (Race 9)**

Pegasus World Cup Day: LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 9: Turf, 1 1/16th, Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf Inv. S. (G3), $500k, F&M 4+)

Heading out of the gate in this Pick 4 sequence on Pegasus Day, we find ourselves in the middle of a tough 9F contest. I am sure there are many bettors that are contemplating “Singling” Chad Brown’s Regal Glory #4. The mare by Animal Kingdom will probably end up being the favorite. I am against her because I think she is a miler, and going further can take its toll. Do not forget that she has not been seen since shipping out to Del Mar for the Matriarch (G1) in late November, so that could be a bit of an issue. I want a runner that was last seen on the turf course at Gulfstream. My top pick is Roger Attfield’s Lady Speightspeare #3. I am disappointed that the veteran trainer has bucked Emma-Jayne Wilson from the mount, and is instead going with Junior Alvarado. Don’t get me wrong, he is riding well. I liked this runner back when she was entered at Keeneland in the QE2 Cup. She scratched that day after been rambunctious in the gate. Returning in a G2 at Woodbine, she was solid … scoring a 4-length win. Even though she was 3rd last time out in the Trop Oaks 100k @GP, I thought she exhibited once again some forwardly-placed talent. She should be a good price, and one to include. Let’s add a couple of more, just for good measure … I am keen on Todd Pletcher’s Sweet Melania #1, and Saffie Joseph’s Shifty She #9. This pair were 1-2 in the prep for this one. Last time out in the Suwannee River (G3), they looked tough as nails being ridden by top S. FLA jocks, Luis Saez and Edwin Gonzalez. Bet’em … moving right along!

Selections: 1/3/9 (3-Deep)



LEG 2: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Fred W. Hooper S., (G3), $150k, 4+)

A race named for one of the “good guys,” this year’s edition begins and ends with Todd Pletcher’s Fearless #1. Not only is he a classy gelding by Ghostzapper, but he exhibits such versatility. Need him to go long? Yep … he can do that. How about a 1-turn mile, like this race? I think so … He has tactical speed, and can really pick off opponents as a race unfolds. His last contest, the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) was a textbook success story in how to rate properly. There is no question that jockey Luis Saez is going to do his best to get out of the gate reasonably well, and take up a decent striking position. This will not be easy as his mount cruises past the Temp Rail. Speaking of passing … Saez was passed over in the Eclipse Award voting, and he is such a stellar pilot. I digress … As for this HOF conditioner, I think Pletcher has worked this 6-yr-old properly (3rd race in this form cycle) for Repole, and I do not see anyone else in here that meets his class level. That is why … I am fearless … “Single.”

Selections: 1 (Single)



LEG 3: (Race 11: Turf, 1 1/8th, Pegasus World Cup Turf Inv. S. (G1), $1 million, 4+)

If you had the available cash, maybe going with the “All” button would be sensible, especially with an expansive field as this one is for the WC Turf. The best way to diffuse the “Caveman” approach, as it has been dubbed, is to get some opinions … some defined ones. Based on my assessments earlier in the week, I truly like the look of Mike Maker’s Flavius #3, a runner that most recently was a Chad Brown-trainee. The 7-yr-old is full of deep experiences … 14 starts … with a record of 4-3-2 … I like his ability to exhibit a turn-of-foot at different stages of a race. Sometimes he breaks early, while other times, he comes from the clouds. Rating nicely is an important attribute, and with the skills of Paco Lopez, the ridgling could end up in the winner’s circle for an accomplished trainer. Maker knows how to claim … As for a couple other entries to include, I am going to pass on Todd Pletcher’s defending champ, Colonel Liam #6. The cavalry charger has not been seen since Belmont in early June, and even with Irad Ortiz, I am not sure just how he will react in a spot like this one … no prep Mr. Pletcher? Hmm … A pair that looks inviting for different reasons that I must include are Barclay Tagg’s Doswell #7 and Chad Brown’s lone offering, Sacred Life #8. The former is a Gulfstream horse-for-the-course, if there ever was one, and he has the hot-riding Junior Alvarado in the irons. As for the latter, he is strong at this distance, and I liked the way he handled the competition in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker back at Belmont in October (I like her despite the layoff since Nov.). These 3 runners should give us some solid prices on the tote, and a chance to move on to the final leg of this horizontal. Tally ho!

Selections: 3/7/8 (3-Deep)



LEG 4: (Race 12: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Pegasus World Cup Inv. S. (G1), $3 million, 4+)

To quote Goose … “It’s time for the big one.” The Pegasus WC chatter about Life Is Good #4 challenging Knicks Go #1 at Gulfstream Park was the talk of the town after the Breeders’ Cup. The Korea Racing Authority was up for one more race, and the son of Paynter was pointed to this one by trainer Brad Cox after he secured the Classic (G1) at Del Mar. That was a bitter sweet win for the Kentucky-based trainer because he had both Essential Quality, and the former member of Ben Colebrook’s stable in the race. Coming into his final bow before he heads to sire duties, I still see his early speed as both a blessing and a curse. If opponents allow him to get loose on the lead, he will decimate you. Yet, what happens when he doesn’t break well, or runs up against a more talented rival? That, in this instance, is Todd Pletcher’s rising star, Life Is Good. LIG, as he is known, looks bigger and even more fit than he did at the Breeders’ Cup when he won easily in the Dirt Mile (G1). Interestingly enough, Cox and Pletcher shared the same barn at Del Mar, and these 2 were back-to-back in their stalls. LIG, to my eye, because I saw both of them up-close, looks to be more mature, and stronger. His ability to “press” the grey is going to be an asset. “Knicks” might be able to run the floor, but LIG, a son of Into Mischief, has the skills to catch-up. If Irad Ortiz can track Joel Rosario, then I predict that the day will be his. WinStar wins … For those reasons, in this match race, it is a “Single” to round out the sequence.

Selections: 4 (Single)

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Ticket: 1,3,9 / 1 / 3,7,8 / 4

1.00 LP4 TICKET COST: $9.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Weekend GamePlan for Jan. 29, 2022: Picks for Pegasus World Cup Turf, Southwest, and more
Marcus Hersh

The biggest North American race of the year until the Kentucky Derby is a match race dressed up as a nine-horse field.

It’s tough settling on a Pegasus World Cup Invitational preference, so I won’t. Having just gotten back from New Orleans where I was fortunate enough to watch Knicks Go train, I can report that at age 6, with a long 2021 campaign behind him, the horse blooms with vitality. Since Brad Cox took over training, Knicks Go is 8 for 8 in two-turn races (four Grade 1’s, two Breeders’ Cup starts) with a 40-length combined margin of victory.

It’s hard to see him succumbing to anyone in a nine-furlong Gulfstream Park contest, but my stars, those recent works from Life Is Good blow you away, and his Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile as good as Knicks Go’s the year before. He’s got younger legs but cedes seasoning and is untested beyond 1 1/16 miles.

This is one to watch for me, with plenty of better betting opportunities before the Gulfstream feature.

Pegasus World Cup Turf

Colonel Liam, based on available video, hasn’t worked as impressively as Life Is Good (who could?) but has trained with vigor and verve this winter. Still, this is a big ask, returning from nearly an eight-month layoff in a million-dollar race, and Colonel Liam’s imposing, heavy frame is not the sort to be rapidly honed following a long layoff.

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He can beat me and so can his Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Never Surprised, a mere 7-2 on the morning line while facing older horses for the first time and getting no weight. Never Surprised clearly seems the speed of the race but will have to come out running from post 12, a potentially compromising scenario for a horse who struggles to settle and relax.

Hit the Road possesses requisite quality to contend, might well have been best in his last start, and tracing to the second dam (his was unraced) you’ll find a dose of stamina to help him through these nine furlongs. But Hit the Road is more naturally a miler and performed poorly the one time he shipped; there are too many concerns.

I looked long at Atone, 20-1 on the line and steadily improving since trainer Mike Maker took over last summer. He had a wide draw in the Fort Lauderdale and lost a lot of ground on the second turn, finishing with interest trying nine furlongs for the first time.

The selection is Space Traveller, a horse good enough to have defeated BC Mile winner Space Blues earlier in his career. He finished two places behind Atone in the Fort Lauderdale but there’s reasons to expect more.

Post 12 forced Space Traveller to be used early, the wrong trip for a horse historically best at a mile or thereabouts who needs to settle and make one run to succeed at this distance. Thus, the presence of English jockey Jamie Spencer, who surely gives him that hold-up trip. A slow pace hurt Space Traveller in Grade 1’s at Arlington and Woodbine, and he’s getting a better setup here while racing for the first time in blinkers, which he wore in all his works – a visually taking set – since his last race.

Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Maybe morning-line favorite Regal Glory simply proves too good for this bunch – but I doubt it.

:: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures

I quite like Nicest to win this race, presumably at a fair price, possibly not as high as the 6-1 morning line. There’s clearly some excellent overseas form lines here, running through the Ribblesdale and the Irish Oaks, and in the filly’s North American debut, she had a compromising spot of homestretch trouble. Her Red Carpet Stakes, her first start for trainer Michael McCarthy, held promise, and Nicest ran surprisingly well when left in the off-turf American Oaks.

Having watched all this filly’s races, I think there’s a great chance she benefits from a cut back in distance. She appears to have worked well into this, has room to improve, and should be very competitive.

Southwest

The presence of SoCal shipper Newgrange should ensure a fair win price on all the plausible players here, and among them, I’ll side with Ben Diesel. Surely this colt can be forgiven his last-start defeat breaking from post 13 on a sloppy track, and he ran best among the pace players in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Sharp interim works encourage, and Ben Diesel showed in his debut he doesn’t need the lead to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NICK QUINN’S – MOONEE VALLEY TIPS – JANUARY 29

RSN927
Moonee Valley, January 29th, 2022

Race 1 Selections: 6,1,3,2
Race 2 Selections: 5,4,3,1
Race 3 Selections: 2,5,8,1
Race 4 Selections: 5,4,11,1
Race 5 Selections: 1,4,8,7
Race 6 Selections: 2,3,10,11
Race 7 Selections: 10,9,12,6
Race 8 Selections: 11,12,1,2
Race 9 Selections: 6,4,11,7
Best Bets

Race 3 No2 Stay Gold

Race 7 No10 Marabi
Best Value

Race 9 No6 Distillate
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 2
Quaddie 2: 10
Quaddie 3: 11,12
Quaddie 4: Field
Quaddie 2

Quaddie 1: 2,3,8,10
Quaddie 2: 10
Quaddie 3: 1,2,9,11,12
Quaddie 4: Field

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita for January 29, 2021
By: Aaron Halterman

Pegasus Day has ARRIVED! This should be an absolutely epic day of race. For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the middle sequence on the card! We will also have card selections for Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s see if we can get this home today.

Below is our free Middle Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park January 29, 2022

Race 5: La Prevoyante Stakes (G3)

#4 Always Shopping seems to be the class of this field. She also won last time out, while also winning this race last year as well. #9 Honor Hop is kind of the new shooter to the group that could jump up and make a big impact today.

Race 6: Handicap
freestar

#4 Frosted Over has had solid success over the synthetic surface at Woodbine, which should translate well to toadys race. #3 Fancy Liquor moves over to the synthetic surface today after showing solid form over the turf. However, he must run off of a long layoff today.

Race 7: W. L. McKnight Stakes (G3)

#10 Abaan has been super sharp lately, especially here at Gulfstream Park, where he won a 2 mile stakes races last time out. #1 Temple is back in the hands of Mike Maker, which makes him dangerous, especially in a race like todays event.

Race 8: Inside Information Stakes (G2)

#3 Dance dOro comes into this race looking very impressive; however, she must step up in class a bit this time out. This is a logical spot, though. #5 Four Graces should be set for a solid effort after knocking the rust off last time out.

THE TICKET
freestar

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-8) 4,9 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,4,5,9,10 / 3,5,6 – $60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, January 29
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

CHELTENHAM

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.15 Lively Citizen

12.45 Iceo

1.20 Your Darling

1.55 Whatmore (nap)

2.30 Chantry House

3.05 Champ

3.40 Hillcrest (nb)

4.15 Mullenbeg

GIMCRACK

12.15 Hystery Bere

12.45 Iceo

1.20 Your Darling

1.55 Eden Du Houx

2.30 Chantry House

3.05 Champ (nb)

3.40 A Different Kind

4.15 Hidden Beauty



DONCASTER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.25 Gala De Corton

1.00 Roque It

1.35 Third Time Lucki

2.10 Miranda

2.45 My Bobby Dazzler

3.20 Kapcorse

3.55 Haas Boy

GIMCRACK

12.25 Creative Control

1.00 Tide Times

1.35 Third Time Lucki

2.10 Anna Bunina

2.45 Mahler Mission

3.20 Fusil Raffles (nap)

3.55 Our Marty


KEMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.30 No Diggity

5.00 Love Mystery

5.30 El Bello

6.00 Lafan

6.30 Oceanline

7.05 Eagle One

7.35 Tulane

GIMCRACK

4.30 Extracuricular

5.00 Noble Order

5.30 Shorts On

6.00 Lafan

6.30 Oceanline

7.05 Eagle One

7.35 Hannalite

Newmarket – 4.30 No Diggity (nb); 5.00 Noble Order (nap).


LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.52 Coase

1.27 Far Away Thoughts

2.02 El Felicia

2.38 Palavecino

3.12 Crimson King

3.48 Irish Millions

4.23 Water Of Leith

GIMCRACK

12.52 Alicestar

1.27 Far Away Thoughts

2.02 Sparka

2.38 Dark Pine

3.12 Crimson King

3.48 Golden Spice

4.23 Water Of Leith


UTTOXETER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.08 Moveit Like Minnie

12.38 Arizona Cardinal

1.13 Benign Dictator

1.48 Poldark Cross

2.22 Stormy Flight

2.57 Graces Order

3.33 Docpickedme

4.08 R Bernard

GIMCRACK

12.08 Moveit Like Minnie

12.38 Grey Skies

1.13 Sullivan’s Brow

1.48 Poldark Cross

2.22 Wicked West

2.57 Graces Order

3.33 Bretney

4.08 The Girl That Sang

Northerner – 1.48 Raecius Felix (nb); 2.57 Burrows Diamond (nap).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pegasus World Cup Invitational
Knicks Go ready to take flight in Pegasus
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

It’s January folks, and that means only two things.

1) Snow, ice and freezing cold temperatures up here in the ‘Great White North’.

With that, I will pay homage to the late singer Meatloaf and borrow his lyrics: “The snow is really piling up outside and that ain’t getting us nowhere”.

2) Gulfstream Park is underway down south in Florida.

Given the two options, we choose the latter and get away for some warmth, sunshine and a fast track for this Saturdays $3 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational which drew a nine-horse field.

A total of seven graded stakes worth $5.2 million in purses will be offered on the Pegasus Day 12-card program, led by the World Cup, held at 1 1/8 miles and the $1 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, also contested at the same nine-furlong distance. In addition, race fans will see the debut of the $500,000 Grade 3 Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf, previously run as the Marshua’s River, which will be run at 1 1/16 miles

Since its debut in 2017, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational has grown into a signature event that helps to kick off the yearly schedule of top stakes races in the country.

Knicks Go and Life Is Good, a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners, headline this year’s Pegasus event. Both horses easily prevailed in their respective championship races back on November 6th, and now, facing each other, are bringing horseracing fans to the edge of their seats.

Both the Pegasus Turf and the Pegasus World Cup will be televised live on NBC from 4:30-6 pm E.T.

Let’s have a brief look at the Pegasus World Cup horses from the rail out.

1 - KNICKS GO: Joel Rosario/Brad Cox: 6-5 - The defending champion of this race, and likely to be named 2021 Horse of Year at the Eclipse Awards next month, attempts to become the first back-to-back winner of the Pegasus. In addition to winning this race last January and closing out the 2021 season winning the B.C. Classic, another signature win on his resume was a triumph in the Whitney Stakes. He’s had a stellar racing career and I’ll be rooting for him, but win or lose, this is his farewell race before heading off to retirement.



2 - CHESS CHIEF: Reylu Gutierrez/Dallas Stewart: 10-1 - Winner of Tenacious Stakes the day after Christmas at Fair Grounds gets his first try at Gulfstream which marks his 10th different racetrack, but he’s had difficulty winning on the road as all five lifetime wins have come at the Fair Grounds. He’s a deep closer who will need a pace collapse. It could happen, but unlikely.



3 -STILLETO BOY: Kent Desormeaux/Ed Moger, Jr: 20-1 - His only stakes win came last summer in the listed Iowa Derby, but he hasn’t disgraced himself when facing elite competition. Just look at the cast of horses that have finished in front of this guy in his last three G1 races. Another minor award is probably his ceiling here.



4 - LIFE IS GOOD: Irad Ortiz, Jr/Todd Pletcher: 7-5 - Was a runaway winner in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, leading every step of the way and winning by six lengths. The Pletcher trainee has won five of his six lifetime starts and has been pointed here since his November win. Despite the nine-furlong distance being his farthest attempt, his talent makes him a major threat to bring home the top prize.



5 - EMPTY TOMB: Paco Lopez/Robert Falcone, Jr: 20-1 - He was claimed last summer at Saratoga, then finished last in a pair of stakes before rebounding to win an allowance race in November and finish second in the Queens’ County Stakes last month, both at Aqueduct. He’s in a tough spot to get his first career stakes win.



6 - SIR WINSTON: Edwin Gonzalez/Mark Casse: 12-1 - After being sidelined for nearly a year, the 2019 Belmont Stakes winner returned last year to win an allowance race at Woodbine and closed out the season there last month with a winning score in the Valedictory Stakes. After the top two marquee names, this horse is only other G1 winner. He now returns to dirt racing after a series of good efforts on synthetic.



7 - TITLE READY: Tyler Gaffalione/Dallas Stewart: 20-1 - Opened last season with a victory in the G3 Louisiana at Fair Grounds then was shipped overseas to try the G1 Dubai World Cup where he finished eleventh, beating just one opponent. In two outings since, he’s been third and sixth over off-tracks. Outclassed and probably prefers shorter distances.



8 - ENDORSED: Umberto Rispoli/Mike Maker: 20-1 - Most recently, he was runner-up in G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes to close out 2021 season. Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since May 2020, a series of 15 starts and hasn’t raced this far in a non-turf start since the summer of 2020 at Saratoga. To his credit, he’s worked regular and swiftly, but going two turns off the break is a tough task to ask. He’s better suited to sprinting.



9 -COMMANDEER: Julien Leparoux/James Toner: 30-1 - Had a successful 2021 campaign as a three-year old winning three races from seven starts and missing a top three finish just once, and that occurred in his first outing last February. The Pegasus marks his first stakes try and a gigantic leap in class.



ANALYSIS

This looks like a heavyweight matchup. Will a retiring champion make a memorable exit, or will there be a grand inauguration of a new champ that will continue to dominate races and provide fireworks for the rest of the year?

Five of the last six Pegasus winners prepped for the race with a win in the prior Breeders’ Cup Championships, including Knicks Go last season. That’s a glaring statistic that bodes well for the two headliners this year with Life is Good and the returning champion coming off wins in the Dirt Mile and Classic, respectively.

Both horses are wicked fast speedsters who prefer to be on the lead, so this duel could start right out of the gate. It’s hard to separate the two of them with their similar running styles and on-track success. The two horses stand apart and are clearly superior to the others on full-dress handicapping.

The tricky question is, which horse should be bet to win, if either?

Take the higher-priced horse. Let the odds dictate your bet. Usually, one horse will be an underlay, the other a low-priced overlay.

Players can consider Knicks Go and Life is Good to have a relatively equal chance, and the rest of the field some chance. By this reasoning, either of the two horses is a fair bet at 2-1, but no lower, and an overlay at 5-2 or greater.

If both possibilities are underlays, pass.

Another scenario to consider is, if you feel both could run themselves to a standstill and open the door for a late running rival, then choose one of the off-pace horses you think can pull off the upset.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trifecta Play of the Week: W. L. McKnight Stakes
John Mucciolo

An overflow field of 14 will travel 1 1/2 miles on the Gulfstream Park turf in Saturday’s $200,000 W. L. McKnight S. (G3). The grassy tilt features numerous intriguing players, and I believe that it is a great race to potentially return healthy mutuels in the vertical exotics.

A horse of great interest to me is the Rusty Arnold-trained #6 Bama Breeze (12-1). The gelded son of Honor Code has yet to find his most consistent form, but the five-year-old had what I thought was a fine prep at Keeneland when fourth in the Sycamore S. (G3) at today’s distance. In that outing, the dark bay made a big middle move to be close at the top of the lane, only to tire late over a good turf course.

Bama Breeze was a smart allowance winner over a nice horse at Kentucky Downs two back, and 12 furlongs looks like an ideal distance for the Kentucky-bred. Corey Lanerie will rally the value contender from well back in the early stages.

#9 Glynn County (3-1), one of four in the main body (and six overall) for Mike Maker, ran well in a trio of graded stakes races in succession last campaign and seems poised for a positive showing in his 2022 bow. Kitten’s Joy five-year-old is relatively lightly raced with room for improvement, and his best performance will find him in the mix late under Tyler Gaffalione.

Pletcher’s #10 Abaan (2-1) is very logical coming off a two-mile stakes win on the course. The son of Will Take Charge has proven his ability to carry his substantial early speed a route of ground, and the presence of top gun Luis Saez makes him a menacing figure while making his graded debut.

#1 Temple (4-1) was second in the race last season, gets the cozy rail slot, and the gelding also comes in fresh on a strip where he dons a 12-4-4-2 lifetime line. Dark bay son of Temple City could surely be the one with a well-timed ride from Rispoli.
Trifecta Wager

$2 trifecta box 1,6,9,10 ($48)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita: Stakes plays for Jan. 29
John Mucciolo

A trio of graded stakes races will highlight a fine card at "The Great Race Place" on Saturday.
Race 4 – San Vicente S. (G2)

Conditioner Bob Baffert has three in the five-horse field, and I think that he will be in the winners’ circle getting his photo taken following the seven-furlong dash. #4 Doppelganger has a trio of fleet sophomores drawn to his inside, and I think he will get a great set up with Flavien Prat in the silks. The $570,000 son of Into Mischief overcame both a rail post and slow break to roll home in his debut at Los Alamitos, and he has trained swiftly in the interim. The bay looks to be a really nice prospect going forward.
Wager

$40 win #4 Doppelganger ($40)

Race 7 – Megahertz S. (G3)

The one-mile grassy test for fillies and mares attracted eight runners. I feel that this is a very good spot for the ultra-consistent #2 Warren’s Showtime to put her best foot forward. The California-bred daughter of Clubhouse Ride has registered six of her eight lifetime victories at the distance, and she also has an affinity for Santa Anita with a 13-6-1-5 mark. The chestnut mare will stalk the tempo early on with regular rider Juan Hernandez in the silks.
Wager

$20 win and place #2 Warren’s Showtime ($40)

Race 8 – Palos Verdes S. (G3)

A talented field of six sprinters will vie in the $200,000 dash. The Vladimir Cerin-trained #6 Arham is two-for-two since arriving in this barn and gets the upset nod from the outside post. The lightly raced son of Union Rags has long flashed potential, but it was the addition of blinkers that has moved the five-year-old forward in my opinion. Arham aced his local debut with a professional allowance tally last time out, and he has every right to peak in his third test off the layoff. He will track a sharp early tempo prior to making his move at the top of the lane. Juan Hernandez could cap a big day atop the selection.
Wager

$20 win and place #6 Arham ($40)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (January 29)

Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 9 races from 10:45 to 18:00 (the Jeju pony meeting is also simulcast to Seoul, hence such bug gaps between races). All betting locations are open, however, attendance must be pre-booked using the MyCard app and proof of up to date vaccination against Covid-19 is required. Here are the previews:

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maidens here. (7) GLOBAL BOBAE will be the favourite having run 2nd on debut on Christmas Day, overcoming a wide draw to sit handy and run on in a good time. He should have come on for the experience and a similar run makes him hard to beat here. After winning a trial, (5) HATMURI ran 3rd on debut at this distance before running 6th at 1200M at start tow. He has had a couple of months off since then, Moon Se-young climbs aboard and he should go close. It’s similar with (2) P N S GOLD who has a 2nd and 4th from two starts so far. She draws well here and could be on pace from the start. (4) BE FLOWER and (6) YOUNG BLOOD are others to consider for improvement.
Selections (7) Global Bobae (5) Hatmuri (2) P N S Gold (4) Be Flower
Next Best 6, 1
Fast Start 2, 3, 6, 7

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(3) MUSTANG POWER ran a good 2nd on debut over this distance on December 25th. Coming from well off the pace. He was well-beaten by a good winner but showed enough to suggest he has some potential and from a much better gate this time, looks the one to beat. (14) G STAR has improved across three starts so far, including a runner-up finish at his latest on December 5th. He tends to get right back and then run on so the draw isn’t too much of a concern and the additional trip today may help. (13) GLOBAL PRIME too improved at his latest appearance on November 28th. He sat handy that day so may need a touch of luck early but is another who should like the increase in trip. (8) MABAWI and (10) AL SIMON others in the frame.
Selections (3) Mustang Power (14) G Star (13) Global Prime (8) Mabawi
Next Best 10, 1
Fast Start 1, 2, 12, 13

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

Fillies only here and a tricky one here especially as most of the leading contenders have drawn wide. With that in mind, we might as well go with the widest of all, (14) TOP POSITION drew widest of all on debut too over 1000M and stayed at the back before running on strong for 6th in a fast race. The additional trip here can give her more time to find a top position and she can win. So too (12) SOARA DAEBO. She has the fastest time among those who have tackled the distance before, recorded when 2nd on December 18th. She will settle midfield and should be in the finish again. (10) SMART BLUE beat a couple of these on her way to 2nd place at the distance on Christmas Day. It wasn’t a very fast time, but she seems to be heading in the right direction. (3) SWEET CAMP and (11) GEOSEN GISANG others in the placing frame.
Selections (14) Top Position (12) Soara Daebo (10) Smart Blue (3) Sweet Camp
Next Best 11, 7
Fast Start 4, 10, 11, 12

Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1400M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(10) JANGSAN POISON has worked home well in both starts so far and at his latest was 5th over 1200M coming from the back of the field. He looks like he needs a bit of distance, and he gets it here. So does (12) ASPENROS went right back on debut over 1300M on December 26th but finished off very nicely to beat a couple of today’s rivals on his way to 3rd place. He too should appreciate a bit more distance to play with today and could well start as favourite. Solitary debut-maker (3) FLY STAR finished off a trial very well in December and from a good draw has every chance of a bold showing first-up. (14) CHEONJI JIDAE was the big loser from the draw but has been consistent across his four starts so far and shouldn’t be far away. (2) HELLO GEUMSEONG mixes her form, but this is the kind of race in which she can challenge for minor money.
Selections (10) Jangsan Poison (12) Aspenros (3) Fly Star (14) Cheonji Jidae
Next Best 2, 13
Fast Start 9, 11, 13, 14

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(10) WOW WOW stepped up to 1200M and got his maiden win at start number three on December 11th, sitting behind the leader and then going by in the closing stages. He comes up in class and in trip today but there looks to be more to come, and he can win again. (14) SPEED FALCON has finished no worse than 4th in four starts so far. Her sole win came at 1000M, but she comes in off a good 2nd place over 1300M on Christmas. She has also run 4th at this distance in a fast time. The draw is not ideal, but she has every chance. (6) MAGIC RUSH came from off the pace to breakthrough at start number three over 1200M on Boxing Day. He comes up in class and trip here but can measure up. (2) RAON THE TEUKGEUP and (9) SOUJU among others with at least placing chances.
Selections (10) Wow Wow (14) Speed Falcon (6) Magic Rush (2) Raon The Teukgeup
Next Best 9, 12
Fast Start 1, 10, 11, 14

Seoul Race 6: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

[Can'tPickAWinner]

hank goldberg
pegasus world cup gulfstream

race 5 1-6-2
7 6-1-9
8 8-6-5
9 4-5-2
10 8-1-4
11 5-12-2
12 1-4-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 1/29/22

January 29, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Storming Lady; 12-Miss Carousel; 5-Bristol Bayou

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a grass grab bag starter’s allowance five furlong dash that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep, but you should use as many as your budget allows. Storming Lady (TOC=7-1; ML=7/2) should draft into a proper second flight, stalking position and have every chance from there to get back on the winning track. She returns protected in her first outing since November while showing a steady but slow-and-easy series of drills that should have her fit enough. She’s run well fresh in the past, and a repeat of her clever win two races back charts very well with these. Miss Carousel (TOC=7-1; ML=5-1) had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post that seems likely to greatly comprises her chances, but she’s won her last pair in good style with rising speed figures, so if she can fold over and save some ground before the field hits the turn, she may have a reasonable look. According to the form, she either wins, or you can’t find her. Bristol Bayou (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent but she’s winless in nine career starts on turf. Her dirt numbers are strong, but, well, they’re dirt numbers. We’ll toss her in as a back-up or a saver.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Straus’s Place

Forecast: Straus’s Place has rising speed figures and is relatively lightly-raced with further improvement possible, so in this modest bottom-rung maiden claiming router for older horses the P. D’Amato-trained gelding looks ready to graduate. He’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 2-1 but could go lower if the wagering public decides it’s had enough of Funkenstein, the 6/5 ML choice who has finished second six times in 10 career starts and seemingly doesn’t have a winning punch. At a short price, we’ll let him beat us.


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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Single: 7-Rocky Gibraltar

Forecast: We’ll handicap this race under the assumption that the 8/5 morning line favorite Liberty Forever will scratch, a strong possibility according to reports from yesterday. Rocky Gibraltar has trained well enough (see below) to win at first asking in this below-standard state-bred maiden special weight turf sprint for sophomores. The son of Shaman Ghost is comfortably drawn outside, lands the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez, and should be able to outrun this group, assuming he breaks at least decently. The J. Sadler-trained colt is a win play and rolling exotic single.

Cool Acclaim (January 23, Santa Anita, 6f. 1:16.2hg). Grade: C-
Under heavy pressure from the top of the lane to the wire but was second best behind Midnight Silence (6f, 1:16hg), splits of :24.3, :36.3, :49 flat and 1:16.4 on our watches, pretty much all out to the end. Pass for now.
View Workout Video

Synnin and Winnin (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: C
In blinkers, was two lengths in front of Evelyn’s Girl (same time) when we picked up this team entering the far turn, with ‘Winnin then finishing slightly second best at the wire while all out under urging in the final furlong, :37.1 for the final three eighths of a mile. Didn’t show a whole lot in her debut and didn’t really step forward in this drill.
View Workout Video

Rocky Gibraltar (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: B-
Broke slowly in gate drill with Kalon (same time) but rushed up to be head-and-head throughout without undue pressure, slower than given but not bad under the circumstances, splits of :24.1, :36.3, :48.3 and 1:02.1 (eased to the wire in 1:15.4. Has some ability and should be live in debut, assuming he breaks with his field.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 4-Doppelganger; 2-Pinehurst

Forecast: Three of the five starters in this year’s renewal of the San Vicente S.-G2 are owned by the same partnership group and trained by B. Baffert. Doppelganger (TOC=9/2; ML=8/5) scored at first asking from off the pace in excellent style at Los Alamitos and should adore this extended sprint distance. The son of Into Mischief projects to settle behind the leaders and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Del Mar Futurity S.-G1 winner Pinehurst (TOC-3/5; ML=5/2), freshened since weakening in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 in November, has looked sharp in the a.m. and is back around one turn where he belongs. Reunited with “win rider” M. Smith, the son of Twirling Candy deserves to be the heavy favorite based on the analytics (we’re not so sure about that) and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Doppelganger on top.

Notable Workouts:

Forbidden Kingdom (January 19, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:28.4h). Grade: B
Stamina-building drill by son of American Pharoah, very slowly early but smooth through the lane before continuing out to seven furlong pole under mild coaxing, splits of :26.3, :38.3, :50.3, 1:16 flat and 1:28.4 for R. Mandella. Has plenty of early speed but showed here the ability to relax and switch off before kicking home well. Freshened since November and has a chance to be a pretty nice-year-old.
View Workout Video

Pinehurst (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B+
Strong gate drill for B. Baffert while much best over Varda (5f, 1:00.3hg), splits of :213.4, :35 flat, :47 flat and :59.4, ridden some through the lane after being allowed to show his speed down the backside. Del Mar Futurity winner has his speed but probably should be kept around one turn for now. Seems fit enough.
View Workout Video

McLaren Vale (January 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B+
Stride-for-stride outside Doppelganger (same time) for B. Baffert and may have been going a tad the easier in the late stages, sharp drill for both, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.4 on our watches. Broke his maiden in good style first time out and has come on well since. Gets tested for class in the San Vicente S.-G2.
View Workout Video

Doppelganger (January 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Much best drawing clear outside Montebello (5f, 1:01h) with strong late strides, two lengths in front at the wire with splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.3 on our watches, a bit slower than given but sharp, nonetheless. Acts like a type that wants to settle early and cut loose late, so we’ll be expecting patient tactics in the San Vicente S.-G2.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-She’s Got a Way; 1-Cuban Crisis

Forecast: She’s Got a Way adds Lasix, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and seems as good as any in this below average turf sprint for maiden special weight sophomore fillies. She should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that projects to have soft early fractions. Cuban Crisis ran well in her only outing overseas (second, beaten a neck) in an all-weather affair at Kempton. That effort, if repeated today, makes her a major player under leading rider F. Prat. Hopefully, she’ll be able to use her rail post position to good advantage. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; if you find the need to add a few more, go right ahead.

Notable Workouts:

Cuban Crisis (January 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h TT). Grade: B-
English import was a bit keen early while under a hold and going off slowly in :26 flat and :38.1, then was asked a bit through the lane and finished up okay, 1:03.3 on our watches, not too bad for M. Glatt. Hard to gauge but ran well in her only outing overseas and should be competitive on this circuit vs. maidens sprinting on turf.
View Workout Video

Midnight Silence (January 23, Santa Anita, 6f. 1:16hg). Grade: C+
J. Pyfer up, in blinkers, a bit sluggish leaving the gate and earned slow final time but was much best over Cool Acclaim (6f, 1:16.2hg) while never really being asked much and breezing through the lane (workmate under hard urging), :24.3, :36.3, :49 flat and 1:16.2 on our watches. Certainly could have gone faster if permitted, clearly no world beater but not the worst, either.
View Workout Video

Granola Girl (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: C+
High-actioned filly was late changing leads and never really got much going in solo training track drill for R. Baltas, final three furlongs in :37 flat. Seems about the same.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 3-Bellamore; 2-Ironic Twist

Forecast: Bellamore flashed ability when runner-up in a pair of strong maiden sprints during a brief juvenile campaign in 2020, though she did burn money as the favorite both times. She makes her local debut for new trainer S. Callaghan after missing her entire sophomore campaign, but her recent workouts have been solid (see below), so if she returns as well as she left the daughter of Empire Maker will be hard to beat. Ironic Twist is bred for speed (Distorted Humor) and has trained well enough for her debut to warrant inclusion in rolling exotic play, at least, as a back-up. She’s had some trouble leaving the gate in the a.m. but has displayed ability once in motion, so at 8-1 on the morning line she’s somewhat enticing.

Notable Workouts:

Family Affair (January 24, Santa Anita, 3f, 36.1hg). Grade: C
Lacked gate speed and was last of three in team gate drill with Saburo’s Promise (4f, :49hg) and Saburo’s Shot (4f, :50.3hg) for P. Eurton while gearing up for debut. Certainly doesn’t act like a win-early type based on this drill. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

Ironic Twist (January 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, not real quick leaving the barrier but was much best in team drill with Halfbarberbingie (5f, 1:01.1hg) for M. Glatt, ridden from the gate to quickly open up while looking fairly decent with splits of :24.2, :36.2 and :48.2 on our watches. Four-year-old daughter of Distorted Humor has had some gate issues while preparing for debut but definitely has some run. Hopefully, she breaks with her field in the afternoon.
View Workout Video

Bellamore (January 20, Santa Anita,5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Blinkers on, shadow roll, finished with nice strides while mostly on her own and with plenty left, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :36.2 for S. Callaghan. Looks fit enough and showed some promise in a pair of runner-up efforts back east as a 2-year-old. Daughter of Empire Maker should be tough vs. maidens in local debut.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Burgoo Alley; 4-Bodhictta; 2-Warren’s Showtime

Forecast: Burgoo Alley (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) couldn’t cope with the main track and was eased in the off-the-grass American Oaks-G1 last month, but she returns to her preferred surface today in this year’s edition of the Megahertz S.-G3 and seems likely to bounce back with a big effort. The Irish-bred filly has a good stalking style, and in a race that should have comfortable early splits the P. D’Amato-trained filly projects to be in the right place every step of the way. Bodhicitta (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) is a three-time winner over the local lawn and looked quite sharp (see below) in a recent breeze on turf. It’s been awhile since she’s won a race, but on pure numbers, she’s a strong fit and a major contender. Warren’s Showtime (TOC=3/2; ML=5/2) always is a late threat, and it’s hard to ignore her lifetime record over the Santa Anita turf course (six wins in 13 starts). With some help up front, she’ll be heard from late.

Notable Workouts:

Bodhicitta (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TC). Grade: B+
In blinkers, never really asked much in solo turf drill for R. Baltas while working in the middle of the course, final three furlongs in :35.2. Doing well and maintains her form.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Essential Wager

Forecast: Essential Wager (TOC=3/5; ML=5/2) gets a class test today in this year’s edition of the Palos Verdes S.-G3 after being so impressive breaking his maiden at Del Mar two races back and then earning a huge speed figure in a dominant first-level allowance sprint at Los Alamitos in mid-December. He looks very much like the controlling speed, and if he can get away with a soft opening quarter, the son of Honor Code should roll all the way to the wire. Workouts in recent weeks (see below) have been exceptional, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Essential Wager (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
Worked inside Cezanne (same time) and was always going the better of the two with splits of :22.4 and :47.1 from the half mile pole to the wire on our watches, almost a length in front without need of urging (workmate asked a bit). Honor Code colt gets tested for class in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 and could easily be up to the task. Workmate had to be niggled out late but couldn’t quite keep pace while preparing for his first start since April.
View Workout Video

Cezanne (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B
See Essential Wager above.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Annie’s Song; 5-Pammy’s Ready

Forecast: Annie’s Song looks ready to graduate while stretching out again in this maiden turf miler for sophomore fillies. Third in both local starts after being imported from Ireland, the P. D’Amato-trained should inherit a soft stalking position and then have her chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Pammy’s Ready, returns to grass, adds Lasix, and seems likely to be the controlling speed. If she can shake loose early without pressure, she could take this field a very long way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Annie’s Song.

Notable Workouts:

Duvet Day (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:04h). Grade: C+
See Exit Soul below.
View Workout Video

Exit Soul (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.4h). Grade: C+
About a length best outside Duvet Day (5f, 1:04h) in main track drill for M. McCarthy, final three furlongs in a sluggish :38.4. Neither one impressive, both probably need turf to show their best.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Derby Preps at SA, Lrl, OP | Saturday, Jan. 29

January 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The road to the Triple Crown continues Saturday with stakes races across the country at Santa Anita, Oaklawn and Laurel Park. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Laurel Park // Race 6 // 2:39 pm ET // $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes // 7 furlongs

#8 Alottahope (3-1) // 28%W
#3 H P Moon (9-5) // 14%W
#2 Local Motive (8-1) // 11%W
#9 Witty (10-1) // 9%W

Santa Anita // Race 4 // 5:10 pm ET // $200,000 Grade 2 San Vicente // 7 furlongs

#2 Pinehurst (5-2) // 33%W
#4 Doppelganger (8-5) // 27%W
#3 McLaren Vale (4-1) // 21%W
#1 Forbidden Kingdom (5-2) // 11%W

Oaklawn Park // Race 9 // 5:22 pm ET // $750,000 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#10 Newgrange (2-1) // 24%W
#12 Vivar (12-1) // 20%W
#1 Ben Diesel (10-1) // 16%W
#2 Dash Attack (7-2) // 8%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Pegasus Day Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream

January 29, 2022 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Most players would say the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational will come down to one or the other: Knicks Go or Life Is Good. And that alone trims down the costs in the Late Pick 4, and it could be necessary if the chalk wins in the early races.

But the key to the whole shootin’ match is the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, which goes as the 11th – the third leg of the sequence. It looks like the most legit chance to get a price as connections of 12 older campaigners have thrown their hats in the ring for the 1 1-8 mile test. Defending champ Colonel Liam is the 3-1 favorite, and Todd Pletcher stablemate Never Surprised is 7-2. However, many in there are not without chance, and if there is a pleasing price, it’ll probably come out of this event.

The first two are prime spots for favorites. Wins by Regal Glory (2-1) in the Pegasus World Cup Filly And Mare Turf Invitational Stakes and Fearless (5-2) in the Fred W. Hooper would bring down the chances of a prolific payoff, and if those occur, neither Knicks Go nor Life Is Good can be of any payoff assistance if they win.
For all of those reasons, the suggested Late Pick 4 ticket is lower than usual. This week’s investment is $48, and here is a look and the group of great talent used today:

9th Race (3:36 p.m. ET, Pegasus World Cup Filly And Mare Turf Invitational Stakes-Gr. 3)
REGAL GLORY reached the top of her game at the end of 2021, which marked the end of her 5-year-old season. Chad Brown has her doing her best, with four wins in her last six races, including a Grade 1 win in the Matriarch at Del Mar.
Also on the ticket: Nicest.

10th Race (4:12 p.m. ET, Fred W. Hooper Stakes-Gr. 3)
FEARLESS won the G2 Gulfstream Mile last year, and that propelled him into a solid season, which spanned only five starts. He was a closing second to Silver State in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap, and his only race that could be considered a blemish was when he lost to Girolamo’s Attack in a handicap. He had been off six months, and then he came back a month later and made it all good again as he romped in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday. He has a prolific four of five Gulfstream record, and it’ll take a career best from any of these to beat him this time.
Also on the ticket: Liam, Speaker’s Corner.

11th Race (4:49 p.m. ET, Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes-Gr. 1)
SPACE TRAVELLER is a price in what is the most competitive race in this sequence. He is yet to win a race in North America, but it’s not as if he was in run-of-the-mill turf events. He was fourth in the G1 Mr. D (ex-Arlington Million), second in the G1 Woodbine Mile, fifth in the G1 Keeneland Turf Mile, and fourth in the G2 Fort Lauderdale here. Jamie Spencer is scheduled to come in from Europe for the ride, and he’ll get a favorable pace to set up his late run. There are EIGHT runners on the ticket for this one.
Also on the ticket: Atone, Hit the Road, Colonel Liam, Doswell, Sacred Life, Field Pass, Never Surprised.

12th Race (5:34 p.m. ET, Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes-Gr. 1)
The only time LIFE IS GOOD has trailed at any call was in the G1 H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga, when he was caught by the tremendous runner Jackies Warrior. Even so, he dug in and was getting to the winner again at the end. His five other races have been a case of him setting fast fractions and living it at the end, sometimes in easy fashion. His best chance is to be in front of Knicks Go at the outset, and that can happen today. He won the G2 San Felipe at 1 1-16th miles by eight lengths, and he can stretch that out to today’s 1 1-8th-mile distance.
Also on the ticket: Knicks Go.


Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4:
9) #4 Regal Glory, #7 Nicest.
10) #1 Fearless, #6 Liam, #8 Speaker’s Corner.
11) #1 Space Traveller, #2 Atone, #5 Hit the Road, #6 Colonel Liam, #7 Doswell, #8 Sacred Life, #9 Field Pass, #12 Never Surprised.
12) #1 Knicks Go, #4 Life is Good.
The ticket: 4-7 with 1-6-8 with 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-12 with 1-4 ($48).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Hot Stove League He has historically run pretty well locally, and he has some forward ability that will give him a big tactical edge on a couple of the logical players. Tough from close range on the drop.
#4 Holy Emperor He didn't show much last time out, and I worry he's overbet in here. That said, he's dropping into a much easier spot and has baseline efforts that are good enough to handle these.
#9 Groom Lake He is another with some ability to sit right up top, and that should serve him well here. He might be a touch cheaper than the top pair, but his layoff run went pretty well last time out.
Race Summary Hot Stove League should get a great trip while likely pressing Groom Lake, and this seems like a really good spot for him on the drop. He won't be a big price, but he looks pretty likely to get you through this leg.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Drapes Think there is a chance this race comes undone late while setting the table for a finisher like this one who turned back to a sprint trip nicely last out at Gulfstream. She might like it here.
#8 Change of Control She has a right to be pretty tough here after landing a couple of graded wins last year, and she should get a brilliant trip tracking an honest pace. Looks like the one to beat.
#6 Elle Z She only has one gear, and it always sends her to the front. She might be able to shake off the other speed here, but there are also enough other forward players to wonder if maybe she's vulnerable in the lane.
Race Summary Drapes should be a decent price on the board, and she might get the right kind of trip if the pace gets hot. A few forward players might set things up for this one to settle and rally late.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Coffee County He ran okay here last year, and he might get a decent finishing trip in here if he's ready to roll off the bench. Think he'll get a little lost on the tote board.
#5 Mr Elvin He's the one to beat, but it's a little concerning that he has already had a couple of really good chances in which he couldn't find the necessary depth late. Obvious player to be in the mix late, but there's a chance he's waiting to get caught late.
#8 Duvee The turf route try didn't go very well, but he showed a little bit of late interest in the career debut at this trip. He probably has too much to do late, but he wouldn't be a total shock o the move back to this trip.
Race Summary Coffee County has occasionally shown a bit of positional speed, and that might be the case here off the bench. He should be a square price and seems to have a real chance to collar the leaders late.