Saturday 2/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Race of the Week: San Pasqual at Santa Anita | Saturday, Feb. 5
February 3, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The key local prep to next month's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2 San Pasqual is among a trio of stakes on the local Saturday program. It's joined by the Grade 2 Santa Monica for distaff sprinters and the Grade 3 Thunder Road for turf milers. The San Pasqual goes as Race 8 over 1-1/8 miles, a furlong shorter than the Big 'Cap slated for March 5.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner EIGHT RINGS is joined by Grade 2 winners KISS TODAY GOODBYE, EXPRESS TRAIN, SPIELBERG and LAW PROFESSOR. AMERICAN THEOREM is Grade 1-placed. For the most part, these are familiar foes not separated by much in the class department. KISS TODAY GOODBYE and EXPRESS TRAIN have consistently kept the strongest company lines, however.

Pace:
EIGHT RINGS should set the tone with AMERICAN THEOREM the main early threat. KISS TODAY GOODBYE is the only deep closer, leaving the other trio to fill out the midflight spots. This appears a fair pace for all styles over 1-1/8 miles.

Our Eyes:
Defending San Pasqual champion EXPRESS TRAIN beat arguably a tougher cast in this race last year, and did so while facing elder stakes horses for the first time. Now age 5, he's in top form after winning the Grade 2 San Antonio here on opening day against top-class Hot Rod Charlie. While this is a very solid cast with no filler to it whatsoever, EXPRESS TRAIN's top-end efforts do stand out. Over 1-1/8 miles, he's 3: 1-0-2 lifetime; the rest of this field is 5: 0-1-1. He's going to be tough to topple.

Stablemates EIGHT RINGS and SPIELBERG both were ballyhooed early in their careers, but failed to become Triple Crown series participants and have been recalibrating to the handicap division. EIGHT RINGS can be brilliant upon his best and clearly is the faster of the pair. SPIELBERG has made only one allowance appearance (win) since last year's Florida Derby. In both brilliance and form cycle, EIGHT RINGS would seem to have the better of it. But for 1-1/8 miles, the scales tip to SPIELBERG. With Johnny V and Flavien Prat the riders, they'll get the best of it. Nearly impossible to separate.

KISS TODAY GOODBYE has yet to master the art of consistency. He's run some quality races and then delivers complete disasters far too readily for a top-shelf horse. The pace here doesn't look overwhelming on the front end, so he's going to have to be on his best to rally and get them; it won't just fall into his lap likely. Jockey Abel Cedillo has been riding well of late.

LAW PROFESSOR won the off-the-turf Mathis Brothers Mile last time against a weaker dirt cast than this. He was able to track a quick pace and outgame rival Beyond Brilliant to earn a fast figure. It might have been too tough of a race as he tries to bounce back and go another furlong farther. But his workout tab suggests he's thrived out of it, back drilling 13 days later and posting weekly works right on cue.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is in peak form and accomplished over this trip.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
AMERICAN THEOREM was considered a bright talent at 2, and injuries have stifled his progress. But he showed some of that flash last out in allowance company with the aid of a soft pace. It's a step up in class, but he's got raw talent to draw upon and should be in the pace discussion down the backstretch.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win EXPRESS TRAIN.

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AI Picks: Holy Bull, Withers | Saturday, February 5
February 4, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The road to the Triple Crown continues Saturday with important stakes races at Gulfstream and Aqueduct. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Aquduect // Race 8 // 4:25 pm ET // Grade 3 $250,000 Withers Stakes // 1-1/8 miles

#9 Early Voting (3-1) // 28%W
#1 Constitutionlawyer (7-2) // 14%W
#2 Grantham (10-1) // 12%W
#4 Gilded Age (10-1) // 10%W

//

Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // 5:10 pm ET // Grade 3 $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#9 Giant Game (7-2) // 33%W
#5 Cajun’s Magic (8-1) // 13%
#2 Mo Donegal (5-2) // 13%
#3 Eloquist (20-1) // 13%

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Laurel Park 5 Facts | February 1-7, 2022

February 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$3,863 Rainbow 6 // Thursday

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (41%, -$4.40)

Best Speed Fast Track (40%, +$14.40)

Speed Last Race (37%, -$2.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Anthony Farrior // last week 7: 4-0-1 (57%, $ 2.44 ROI) // 2-4 with Arnaldo Bocachica // 7-17 last 2 weeks

T: Jamie Ness // last week 6: 4-0-0 (67%, $2.37 ROI) // 4 starters at 6-5 or less odds // 3-5 with Jamie Rodriguez

T: John ‘Jerry’ Robb // last week 11: 4-1-2 (36%, $1.05 ROI) // all 7 ITM finishers were 3-1 or less odds // 7-17 last 2 weeks

J: Victor Carrasco // last week 13: 5-2-3 (38%, $1.19 ROI) // 6: 4-2-0 with favorites // 10-23 last 2 weeks

J: Jamie Rodriguez // last week 16: 4-0-1 (25%, $1.20 ROI) // 3-5 with Jamie Ness

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | February 1-7, 2022

February 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$313,840 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

$14,773 // Super High 5 (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

$200,000 Grade 2 San Pasqual // older dirt routers (Saturday)

$200,000 Grade 2 Santa Monica // distaff sprinters (Saturday)

$100,000 Grade 3 Thunder Road // turf milers (Saturday)

$200,000 Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis // 3-year-old routers (Sunday)

$100,000 Grade 3 Las Virgenes // 3-year-old filly routers (Sunday)

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Track (30%, -$7.80)

Avg. Speed Last 3 (29%, +$4.60)

Best Speed Distance (28%, -$17.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Carla Gaines // last week 4: 2-0-1 (50%, $2.58 ROI) // $6, $14 winners both in turf sprints

T: Richard Mandella // last week 2: 2-0-0 (100%, $7.80 ROI) // $9, $21 winners, including G2 stakes

J: Drayden Van Dyke // last week 11: 5-0-1 (45%, $3.76 ROI) // $21, $23, $25 longshot winners // won for 5 different trainers

J: Tyler Baze // last week 16: 5-1-1 (31%, $1.59 ROI) // only rode 1 favorite // won for 5 different trainers

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | February 1-7, 2022

February 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$47,544 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Reminder: El Camino Real Derby Day set for Feb. 12

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Last Late Pace (39%, +$31.20)

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (39%, +$24.60)

Last Purse (23%, +$10.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Isidro Tamayo // last week 7: 3-1-0 (43%, $1.76 ROI) // 4: 2-1-0 claiming races // $7, $8, $8 winners

T: Reid France // last week 8: 3-0-1 (38%, $2.50 ROI) // $8, $13, $18 winners // 2-2 with Bryan Pena

T: Jack Steiner // last week 3: 2-1-0 (67%, $2.83 ROI) // $7, $10 winners + 9-2 runner-up

J: Bryan Pena// last week 10: 3-0-2 (30%, $1.75 ROI) // $8, $8, $18 winners // 2-2 with Reid France

J: Armando Ayuso // last week 17: 5-2-4 (29%, $1.30 ROI) // won for 5 different trainers // 3: 2-0-1 with favorites

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Gulfstream 5 Facts | February 1-7, 2022

February 1, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Wednesday-Sunday

Carryovers:

none // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Wednesday)

$3,069 Super High Five (Wednesday)

Feature Race(s):

$250,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull // 3-year-old routers // Saturday

$100,000 Grade 3 Swale // 3-year-old sprinters // Saturday

$100,000 Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy // 3-year-old turfers // Saturday

$100,000 Grade 3 Sweetest Chant // 3-year-old turf fillies // Saturday

$100,000 Grade 3 Forward Gal // 3-year-old filly sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Last 3 Purse (32%, +$50.80)

Lifetime Earnings (33%, -$3.60)

Speed Last Race (26%, -$12.80)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Bill Mott // last week 8: 3-1-0 (38%, $1.74 ROI) // $5, $7, $15 winners including G3 stakes

T: Christophe Clement // last week 4: 2-1-1 (50%, $1.88 ROI) // $4, $10 winners including G3 stakes

T: Todd Pletcher // last week 18: 5-3-2 (28%, $0.69 ROI) // 7: 4-1-1 with favorites // G1, G1, G3 stakes wins

J: Jose Ortiz // last week 26: 7-3-1 (27%, $1.68 ROI) // wins for 7 different trainers

J: Luis Saez // last week 42: 10-5-4 (24%, $0.77 ROI) // all 10 wins at 9-2 or less odds // 10: 5-2-1 with favorites

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Picks: Withers S. Day on February 5
By J.N. Campbell

Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, February 5, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-7-3
Race 2: 3-1/1A-7-4
Race 3: 3-5-4-2
Race 4: 2-5-6-1
Race 5: 5-9-1-4
Race 6: 9-4-8-2
Race 7: 4-7-5-6
Race 8: 4-9-5-2
Race 9: 10-6-3-11
**Most Likely Winner: Fenway #3 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Drafted #3 (Race 3)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Fenway #3, 5/2):

In this tough ALLW Co. race, it might be easiest to just keep it simple … Occam’s Razor, and all that. Trainer John Terranova inherits this runner that was in Bob Baffert’s care last fall at Belmont. He was part of the contingent that came to NYRA in the wake of the beleaguered conditioner’s woes out East ... Courts, they decided … the SoCal trainer could run … for now. After some time off, Terranova has an understanding of what kind of hand he was dealt, and it is time to get down to racing. With some maturity in his corner, and Into Mischief in his bloodline, I think he is ready to take on this salty ALLW Co. group. Trevor McCarthy has ridden his mounts well over the past few weeks … he is up for the challenge.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Drafted #3, 8/1):

I have waited to see when this hard-knocking gelding would land in 2022 … it is debut time. Last year, the former Middle East transplant to NYRA, ran against some tough company at both Aqueduct and Belmont. Three of those 7-contests were Grade 3s, so he clearly learned some lessons. In the Toboggan S., he clearly did not have the stamina to hang with the likes of American Power. A year on, I would expect the gelding by Field Commission to be ready to fire after a couple of good works. The presence of Jose Ortiz makes me think that a win here is possible … If only we could get a price like 8/1; not sure it is going to happen.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Withers S. (G3), $250k, 3):

The weather might not be temperate on Saturday, but what we do know is that this full field of colts will be runnin’ on, in what amounts to a nice Grade 3 for KYD148 Points. I am pretty convinced that Chad Brown’s “KS” entry, Early Voting #9, will end up being the favorite. That might not be “deserving,” but it certainly is not outlandish either. Jose Ortiz rides a second-out colt that looked sharp in his debut win. A son of Gun Runner, there is little evidence that he will not be able to stretch out to 9F. This is Brown we are speaking of, and we know he wants to be on the Derby Trail, and in the Starting Gate at Churchill come May. The price may not be to your liking … somewhere around 2/1 … but remember, these connections paid $200k for this one. I am not going to play against this runner per se, because he can win; rather, I am much more interested in trainer Bill Mott’s entry. At a much better price, Gilded Age #4 was not inexpensive either … how about $600k? By Medaglia d’Oro, this colt had 4 efforts last fall at SPA/CD/KEE/CD, and they were a mixed bag. What sparks my interest was the last one, a MSW120k going 1 1/16th on the MT. That was a nice score, and really showed this one’s development. Mott had something to build on, and after a solid work tab at Payson Park, the HOF-er’s home-away, he looks like an interesting bet in this spot. The able-bodied Kendrick Carmouche gets the call, and his ability to spring upsets in unlikely places is definitely present. Let’s use both of these in an Exacta Box, and load up for a nice score!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 4/9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Picks: Turf stakes take center stage February 5
By J.N. Campbell

Tampa Bay Picks - Saturday, February 5, 2022

Race 1: 4-6-2-5
Race 2: 6-4-9-7
Race 3: 12-3-1-9
Race 4: 7-2-9-5
Race 5: 7-4-10-8
Race 6: 3-7-10-5
Race 7: 4-2-7-8
Race 8: 2-10-3-4
Race 9: 9-7-10-3
Race 10: 7-6-9-12
**Most Likely Winner: Soft Power #7 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: English Bee #2 (Race 8)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Soft Power #7, 8/5):

For several years, trainer Chad Brown has come to Tampa with Klaravich runners in search of a prep for bigger and better races. The Turf Course offers excellent “give,” and you can bet that these sodbusters are going to take some money along the way. There is nothing wrong with backing these short-priced favorites because there is one simple fact … they win. Samy Camacho makes good decisions on the green, and we can expect him to guide this one home. By Invincible Spirit (IRE), that speaks to some excellent grass breeding … and that is only the sire … the dam, Daintily Done (GB was through Cacique (FR) … one to watch …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #7



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: English Bee #2, 8/1):

I was certainly high on this Calumet Farm homebred when Graham Motion first came to Tampa with him back in 2019. That was for the Columbia S. 75k, a real salty contest that always produces top runners. Even though the son of English Channel was 5th that day, he used the race as a springboard to a next-out win in the James Murphy S. on Preakness Weekend. After a number of other events since, I like that this horse is rested (last seen in the G2 Ft. Lauder @GP), and ready to go in this Grade 3. Motion has some excellent turf runners in his past, and it would be excellent to see this one come home, guided by Hector Diaz.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Turf, 1 1/16th, Endeavour S. (G3), $175k, F&M 4+):

A nice contest was drawn by the Racing Office at Tampa, and once again, we have a competitive Endeavour S. My 1st inclination is to back Roger Attfield’s entry … Lady Speightspeare #3. She was slated to run in the Pegasus F&M Turf (G1), but instead, she shipped up to Tampa for this dropdown. I think she is accomplished, and I like that jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson is along for yet another ride. Back at Keeneland in October, her mount had to scratch out of the QE2 Cup (G1) because she hit the gate upon entry. Luckily, she was fine, and next out on the Tapeta at Woodbine, she showed her ability … winning nicely in a Grade 2. I am game to back the Charles Fipke-owned turfer, but I also want to roll under the likes of Saffie Joseph’s Katama Moonlight #5, Chad Brown’s In Italian #7, and finally, Graham Motion’s Oyster Box #10. Each of these runners have either the class, or a recent race that makes them players. Coming out of the chute at Tampa on the turf, it is going to be interesting to see who sets the fractions early on. Go with Attfield … his experience matters, as does the class background of his entry.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta Wheel, 3 w 5/7/10 w 5/7/10 w 5/7/10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Holly Bull and Withers Picks, Plus Derby Top 10

February 2, 2022 | By Jon White

Holy Bull was the Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male of 1994. Moreover, he was voted 1994 Horse of the Year. Holy Bull, inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2001, ranks No. 64 on my list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century to have raced in North America.

Gulfstream Park pays tribute to that champion this Saturday when nine 3-year-olds clash in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes.

My selections for the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull are below:

1. Tiz the Bomb
2. Simplification
3. Mo Donegal
4. Giant Game

Tiz the Bomb, trained by Kenny McPeek, is No. 1 on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. Undefeated Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Smile Happy, also a McPeek trainee, is No. 2.

When last seen under silks, Tiz the Bomb closed strongly from 12th to finish second to one tough dude, European shipper Modern Games, in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last Nov. 5.

Going into the Breeders’ Cup, Tiz the Bomb had reeled off three straight victories. The Kentucky-bred Hit It a Bomb colt won a one-mile maiden race “in hand” by 14 1/4 lengths on the dirt July 2 at Ellis Park.

After Tiz the Bomb earned his maiden diploma, he took the $500,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile on Sept. 6.

Next, despite breaking through the gate prior to the start and starting from post 12, Tiz the Bomb won the Grade II Bourbon Stakes on the grass Oct. 10 at Keeneland prior to his runner-up performance in the BC Juvenile Turf.

On Jan. 29, when working alone, Tiz the Bomb went five furlongs in 1:01.75 (or 1:01 3/5 in fifths).

Prior to that Jan. 29 drill, Tiz the Bomb had gone toe to toe with Smile Happy in a number of team drills at Gulfstream. In fact, Tiz the Bomb outworked Smile Happy in a five-furlong team drill on Jan. 23. Tiz the Bomb was timed in 1:01.24 (1:01 1/5), while Smile Happy was clocked in 1:01.49 (1:01 2/5).

“There are limited opportunities for 3-year-old grass horses in North America,” McPeek said in Gulfstream’s online Holy Bull preview. “He’s really a talented horse and we don’t want to lock him in as strictly a grass horse. There’s no sense pigeonholing him as a grass horse. Even last year we could have made a case for keeping him on dirt, but I chose to keep him separated from some of my other colts. At this stage, we’re going to give him the opportunity to play on the dirt.”

In Churchill Downs’ recent Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Smile Happy at 8-1 and Tiz the Bomb at 10-1 were the first and second favorites.

Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb are ranked high on various Kentucky Derby lists.

Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin has Smile Happy atop his Kentucky Derby rankings. Tiz the Bomb is No. 7.

Countdown to the Crown’s Jeremy Plonk also has Smile Happy ranked No. 1 on his list of Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders. Tiz the Bomb is No. 4.

BloodHorse’s Byron King has Smile Happy ranked No. 3 in his Kentucky Derby Top 12. Tiz the Bomb is No. 5.

Based on his overall record and how smartly Tiz the Bomb has trained up to his first 2022 race, I like Tiz the Bomb to win the Holy Bull.

Simplification, trained by Antonio Sano, won a six-furlong maiden race for Florida-breds by nearly 17 lengths on the dirt Oct. 23 at Gulfstream. The Not This Time colt recorded a robust 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

Before Simplification’s lopsided maiden score, he had finished fifth when unveiled in an Oct. 1 sprint. That race was contested on Gulfstream’s new synthetic oval.

After graduating from the maiden ranks, Simplification finished a disappointing third as a 1-5 favorite in a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming race on the dirt Nov. 13. He plummeted to a 59 Beyer Speed Figure.

But Simplification then rebounded big-time to win Gulfstream’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes by four lengths on the dirt Jan. 1. He recorded a 90 Beyer.

I am particularly impressed by the 2 1/2 Thoro-Graph number Simplification received for his Mucho Macho Man triumph.

As I’ve stated before, while I think Beyer Speed Figures are a useful tool for horseplayers, I am of the opinion that Thoro-Graph numbers are even better. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account that the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

The winner of a race will never get a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second will never get a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.

In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the things I love about Thoro-Graph. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.

To put Simplification’s 2 1/2 Thoro-Graph number into perspective, Corniche posted a 4 1/2 when he won the Grade I BC Juvenile at Del Mar last Nov. 5.

Smile Happy recorded a 2 with the Thoro-Graph folks when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last year.

When Jack Christopher won last year’s Grade I Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, he was credited with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. It was the top Beyer by a 2-year-old in 2021.

But Jack Christopher’s Thoro-Graph number for the Champagne was a 4 1/2, not as snazzy as his Beyer.

Jack Christopher, who is back in training after a shin injury that required surgery, has been removed from my “bubbling under the Top 10” list this week after trainer Chad Brown told Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee that the colt is “not close” to a workout.

The serious 2 1/2 Thoro-Graph number put up by Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man tells me that he should be taken very seriously in the Holy Bull.

Mo Donagel, trained by red-hot Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, is an obvious Holy Bull contender. The Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt is two for two since finishing third at first asking in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden sprint at Belmont Park last Sept. 30.

When stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, Mo Donegal won a maiden contest by 1 1/2 lengths at Belmont on Oct. 21. He subsequently eked out a nose victory over highly regarded Zandon in Aqueduct’s Grade II Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on Dec. 4.

“I’m really pleased with his training since he came here after the Remsen,” Pletcher said of Mo Donegal in Gulfstream’s online Holy Bull preview. “He has not missed a beat since he’s been here.”

Why is Mo Donegal or Zandon not on my latest Kentucky Derby Top 10 list? Mainly it’s because the Remsen, in which they both last raced, has not exactly been a harbinger of success in the Run for the Roses. You have to go all the way back to 1995 Kentucky Derby victor Thunder Gulch to find a Remsen winner who would go on to snag the roses.

Giant Game should not be taken lightly in the Holy Bull. The Kentucky-bred Giant’s Causeway colt finished third when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs last Sept. 18. He received a 69 Beyer Speed Figure.

In a longer 1 1/16-mile maiden race Oct. 9 at Keeneland, Giant Game won by three widening lengths and improved to a 79 Beyer.

In the BC Juvenile, Giant Game loomed menacingly while wide turning for home before finishing third to Corniche and Pappacap. Showing further improvement Beyer-wise, Giant Game recorded an 86 in that race.

All indications are that Giant Game, who has fired a number of bullet workouts, is coming up to the Holy Bull in fine fettle for trainer Dale Romans.

Mo Donegal has been installed as the 3-1 favorite on the Holy Bull morning line. Giant Game is the 7-2 second choice, followed by Simplification at 4-1, Tiz the Bomb at 5-1, White Abarrio at 6-1, Cajun’s Magic at 10-1, Galt at 10-1, then Eloquist and Spin Wheel both at 20-1.

AQUEDUCT’S WITHERS DRAWS A FIELD OF 11

This Saturday’s Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct looks like it’s a wide-open race.

My selections for the 1 1/8-mile Withers are below:

1. Early Voting
2. Constitutionlawyer
3. Courvoisier
4. Cooke Creek

Early Voting, trained by Chad Brown, has only one race under his belt. He won a one-mile maiden race by 1 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct on Dec. 18. It appears to me that the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt has much upside.

“He didn’t earn a fancy figure [76 Beyer] or anything, but when you see a son of Gun Runner debuting at a mile on the dirt and winning first-time out on kind of a dead track you have to take notice,” Brown said in a Jan. 7 story written by Thoroughbred Daily News’ Bill Finley. “I’m not one to have a horse cracked for their best number at that time of year. He’s an interesting horse going forward.”

Constitutionlawyer lost his first two races, then won a 1 1/8-mile maiden race by 3 1/2 lengths on a muddy track Jan. 2 at Aqueduct. Raymond Handal trains the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt.

Courvoisier is seeking his third consecutive victory. Trained by Kelly Breen, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt lost his first three starts, then won a 1 1/8-mile maiden race at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. After defeating maidens, Courvoisier splashed home to a 1 1/4-length win in the one-mile Jerome stakes on a sloppy track Jan. 1 at the Big A.

Cooke Creek had the misfortunate to get post 11 in the Withers. Nevertheless, he belongs on the list of contenders. He won the Rocky Run Stakes at Delaware Park on Oct. 16, ran second in Aqueduct’s Grade III Nashua Stakes on Nov. 7, then finished third in the Jerome.

MY CURRENT KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

Emmanuel debuts on my Top 10 this week all the way up at No. 3. He is two for two following a ridiculously easy 4 1/2-length win in a Tampa Bay Downs allowance/optional claiming race at one mile and 40 yards last Sunday.

Pletcher trains Emmanuel, a Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt.

According to Pletcher, look for Emmanuel to run next in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 26, Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5 or the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.

This week’s Kentucky Derby Top 10 is below:

1. Tiz the Bomb
2. Smile Happy
3. Emmanuel
4. Corniche
5. Messier
6. Newgrange
7. Classic Causeway
8. Epicenter
9. Pappacap
10. Slow Down Andy

BUBBLING UNDER THE TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

American Icon
Barber Road
Belgrade
Call Me Midnight
Chasing Time
Comandperformance
Courvoisier
Doppelganger
Early Voting
Forbidden Kingdom
Giant Game
God of Love
Golden Glider
Gunite
High Oak
Mackinnon
Major General
Make It Big
Mo Donegal
Oviatt Class
Pinehurst
Rattle N Roll
Rockefeller
Simplification
Volcanic
Wharton
White Abarrio
Zandon

ECLIPSE AWARD PREDICTIONS

The Eclipse Awards were established 50 years ago to recognize excellence in Thoroughbred racing. The 2021 finalists were revealed last month.

The 2021 winners will be announced during the 51st annual Eclipse Awards program on Feb. 10 at Santa Anita. This will be the first time since 2012 that the Eclipse Awards program is being held in California. The winners will be announced live on TVG and various other outlets beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

The first year that I made Eclipse Award predictions for Xpressbet.com was for racing that was conducted in 2011. My predictions have proved to be correct 91.4% of the time:

2011: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2012: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2013: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2014: 17 correct, 0 wrong
2015: 14 correct, 3 wrong
2016: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2017: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2018: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2019: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2020: 15 correct, 2 wrong

Total: 156 correct, 14 wrong

Remember, these are my predictions, not who I think should win or who I voted for.

And now here are my predictions for the 2021 Eclipse Awards:

2-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists (alphabetically): Corniche, Jack Christopher, Modern Games
Predicted Winner: Corniche

2-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Echo Zulu, Juju’s Map, Pizza Bianca
Predicted Winner: Echo Zulu

3-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists: Essential Quality, Life Is Good, Medina Spirit
Predicted Winner: Essential Quality

3-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Clairiere, Malathaat, Santa Barbara
Predicted Winner: Malathaat

OLDER DIRT MALE

Finalists: Knicks Go, Maxfield, Mystic Guide
Predicted Winner: Knicks Go

OLDER DIRT FEMALE

Finalists: Letruska, Marche Lorraine, Shedaresthedevil
Predicted Winner: Letruska

MALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Aloha West, Flightline, Jackie’s Warrior
Predicted Winner: Jackie’s Warrior

FEMALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Bella Sofia, Ce Ce, Gamine
Predicted Winner: Ce Ce

MALE TURF

Finalists: Domestic Spending, Space Blues, Yibir
Predicted Winner: Yibir

FEMALE TURF

Finalists: Loves Only You, Santa Barbara, War Like Goddess
Predicted Winner: War Like Goddess

STEEPLECHASE

Finalists: Baltimore Bucko, Snap Decision, The Mean Queen
Predicted Winner: The Mean Queen

TRAINER

Finalists: Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown, Brad Cox
Predicted Winner: Brad Cox

JOCKEY

Finalists: Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario
Predicted Winner: Joel Rosario

APPRENTICE JOCKEY

Finalists: John Hiraldo, Charlie Marquez, Jessica Pyfer
Predicted Winner: Jessica Pyfer

OWNER

Finalists: Godolphin, Juddmonte Farms, Klaravich Stables
Predicted Winner: Godolphin

BREEDER

Finalists: Calumet Farm, Godolphin, Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
Predicted Winner: Godolphin

HORSE OF THE YEAR

Finalists: Not announced
Predicted Winner: Knicks Go

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Racetrack Selections for February 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Feb 4th, 2022 8:29pm PST

Aqueduct Racetrack Selections for February 5, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

The BetOnline racebook has a big card with 11 race tracks offering action on Saturday. There are two $250,000 features events this afternoon. You can find those races at Aqueduct Racetrack and Gulfstream Park.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

The running of the $250,000 Withers Stakes (Gr. 3) is scheduled in Queens at Aqueduct and then Gulfstream Park has the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (Gr. 3). Santa Anita Park has a pretty decent card as well, with the $200,000 Santa Monica (Gr. 2) and $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes (Gr. 2).

For our first play on Saturday, we’re going to Aqueduct in Queens. There are nine races worth $790,000 in prize money this afternoon at Aqueduct. Head below for our best Aqueduct Racetrack picks for February 5, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 1
(1) Can’t Fool Me
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Know It All Audrey
+250 (5/2)
(3) Menily
+800 (8/1)
(4) My Cara Mia Mine
+1000 (10/1)
(5) Royal Currency
-125 (4/5)
(6) Tonight We Love
+2000 (20/1)
(7) Tiffany Tale
+800 (8/1)

Post Time: 12:50 p.m. EST
Distance:7 Furlongs
Purse:$70,000

The first race at Aqueduct Racetrack is a 7-furlong show for a $70,000 purse on the dirt. Look for Know It All Audrey and Royal Currency to have a chance to go in here.

Know It All Audrey is 8th, 7th, 4th, 2nd in her career, and coming off a good attempt on January 6. The filly placed 2nd behind Sunset Louise by 2 ½ lengths in a $70,000 event.

Another run like that and Know It All Audrey will be back near the front with a chance to score. Expect Real Currency to put up big resistance down the stretch.

Royal Currency is winless in two trips, but is poised to break out after placing 2nd as a rookie and sophomore. She placed behind Sunset Louie by 2 ½ lengths in an $85,000 race, and then did the same on January 8.

More of the same from Royal Currency should yield a winning run. Her consistency through two starts offers a lot to like.
The Bet
(5) ROYAL CURRENCY
-125
Place Bet Now!
Race 5
(1) Runabout
+300 (3/1)
(2) Nutzforboltz
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Noble Thought
+600 (6/1)
(4) O Shea Can U See
+1200 (12/1)
(5) Twisted Tom
+400 (4/1)
(6) High Command
+1500 (15/1)
(7) Blood Moon
+2000 (20/1)
(8) Potantico
+600 (6/1)
(9) Flowers For Lisa
+600 (6/1)
(10) Playwright
+500 (5/1)

Post Time: 2:50 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 Mile
Purse:$28,000

Race 5 carries on the dirt for a mile of racing. Consider playing Playwright and Runabout on opposite ends of the gate.

Playwright could have a strong attempt from the outside to steal one from this field. He has finished 5th, 5th, 3rd, 1st in his previous four outings.

Off a big effort on January 16, expect Playwright to come through with another chance. In his last go, Playwright defeated Magnetron by a nose for a $22,000 purse.

Runabout is 8 for 53 in his career and is a consistent mover. He’s finished in the top-3 in seven straight attempts. Runabout is coming off a 3rd showing on January 1 in a $28,000 event.

This finish came after placing 2nd behind Heavy Roller by 1 length in the same grade on July 2 on Belmont Park. Sticking in the same class looks wise and he has in the inside rail out of the gate.

There is good value to be had for a play on Runabout from the No. 1 post position.
The Bet
(1) RUNABOUT
+300
Place Bet Now!
Race 8 – Withers Stakes
(1) Constitutionlawyer
+350 (7/2)
(2) Grantham
+1000 (10/1)
(3) Smarten Up
+1000 (10/1)
(4) Gilded Age
+1000 (10/1)
(5) Courvoisier
+450 (9/2)
(6) Unbridled Bomber
+1200 (12/1)
(7) Noneedtoworry
+3000 (30/1)
(8) Un Ojo
+2000 (20/1)
(9) Early Voting
+300 (3/1)
(10) Mr Jefferson
+2000 (20/1)
(11) Cooke Creek
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Distance:1 ⅛ Miles
Purse:$250,000

The $250,000 Withers Stakes (Gr. 3) covers a mile and ⅛ miles on the dirt. Constitutionlawyer and Early Voting are going to have a big chance in this Grade 3 event.

Constitutionlawyer has finished 4th, 3rd, 1st in three races. He came through for his first win on January 2.

After showing 3rd on December 2 for an $80,000 event, Constitutionlawyer did better in his next and most recent attempt. He beat Long Term by 3 ½ lengths in an impressive look for a wire-to-wire score.

The $170,000 colt should be tested by Early Voting in his second career outing. Early Voting won as a first-time starter on December 18. Chad Brown’s $200,000 colt went in for a 1 ½ length win for an $80,000 prize.

That was a strong performance from Early Voting and he is open to improvement. There could be more to come for Early Voting. If he shows minor improvement, that might be enough to top this field in the Withers.
The Bet
(9) EARLY VOTING
+300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTERSTATE RACING TIPS – FEBRUARY 5TH

RSN927

RSN Form Analyst Kevin Casey covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at the Randwick on Saturday the 5th of February.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: True
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 6
Weather: Overcast
Penetrometer: 5.48
Kevin Casey Randwick Tips

Randwick, 5th February 2022

Race 1 Selections: 5,7,9,3
Race 2 Selections: 18,12,7,3
Race 3 Selections: 13,4,3,9
Race 4 Selections: 1,3,2,5
Race 5 Selections: 5,7,10,6
Race 6 Selections: 14,3,1,2
Race 7 Selections: 2,7,10,3
Race 8 Selections: 11,1,4,2
Race 9 Selections: 1,10,13,11
Race 10 Selections: 8,4,9,2
Best Bet

Race 8 – 11. Ranch Hand
Value

Race 9 – 1. Lancaster Bomber
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 2,7,10
Quaddie 2: 1,2,4,11
Quaddie 3: 1,4,10,11,13
Quaddie 4: 2,4,8,9

SKY Race caller Josh Fleming covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at the Doomben on Saturday the 5th of February.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: +2.5m Entire Course
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 7
Weather: Fine
Penetrometer: 6
Josh Fleming Doomben Tips

Doomben, February 5th 2022

Race 1 Selections: 5,1,8,3
Race 2 Selections: 1,5,10,3
Race 3 Selections: 5,3,4,2
Race 4 Selections: 5,1,2,4
Race 5 Selections: 3,7,2,8
Race 6 Selections: 10,2,6,5
Race 7 Selections: 13,5,11,1
Race 8 Selections: 1,11,3,14
Race 9 Selections: 12,13,4,3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAILY HARNESS TIPS – FEBRUARY 5TH 2022 – DEL-RE NATIONAL A.G. HUNTER CUP NIGHT

Dan Mielicki

Get the RSN Race-caller Dan Mielicki best bets and Harness Racing Tips for Melton on Saturday the 5th of February featuring three Group 1 races including the $500,000 Del-Re National A.G. Hunter Cup .

Dan Mielicki


Melton, 5th February 2022

Race 1 Selections: 10,2,4,1,8
Race 2 Selections: 6,7,2,8,1
Race 3 Selections: 2,1,4,6,3
Race 4 Selections: 9,1,2,4,8
Race 5 Selections: 2,10,8,9,1
Race 6 Selections: 6,1,8,11,9
Race 7 Selections: 8,4,6,1,2
Race 8 Selections: 10,3,7,4,8
Race 9 Selections: 6,5,4,1,3
Race 10 Selections: 3,7,2,1,6
Best Bets

Race 1 – 10. Youaremy Sunshine

Race 9 – 6. Amore Vita
Value

Race 5 – 2. Our Millionaire
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 2,8,9,10
Quaddie 2: 1,6
Quaddie 3: 1,2,4,6,8
Quaddie 4: 3,4,7,10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Study Guide
Withers
Aqueduct 10–4–2–1

New York's lengthy route to the Kentucky Derby continues on Saturday with the $250,000 Withers S. (G3) at Aqueduct. Held over the testing distance of 1 1/8 miles, the Withers has churned out nine Kentucky Derby starters over the last decade and has drawn a competitive field of 11 for its 2022 edition.

Constitutionlawyer

Total 3 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
0

Show:
1

Top Speed Rating:
(92) when breaking his maiden at Aqueduct.

Total Earnings:
$59,000

Owner:
Perrine Time Thoroughbreds and West Paces Racing

Breeder:
Silver Springs Stud and Sandra Sexton

Trainer:
Raymond Handal

Jockey:
Jose Lezcano

Sire:
Constitution

Dam:
Lawyer Brockmeyer

Color:
Bay

Constitutionlawyer knocked heads with some tough rivals in his first two starts, losing maiden special weights against eventual Remsen S. (G2) winner Mo Donegal and Jerome S. hero Courvoisier. But Constitutionlawyer stepped forward nicely in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last month, leading all the way to dominate by 3 1/2 lengths. The 92 Brisnet Speed rating he received ranks as the highest figure in the Withers field, so Constitutionlawyer will be formidable if he repeats the figure on Saturday.
Grantham

Total 2 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
1

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(83) when breaking his maiden at Turfway Park.

Total Earnings:
$61,200

Owner:
Three Diamonds Farm

Breeder:
Winter Creek Farm

Trainer:
Mike Maker

Jockey:
Victor Carrasco

Sire:
Declaration of War

Dam:
Darby Blush

Color:
Bay

Runner-up in his debut sprinting at Churchill Downs, Grantham subsequently showed tactical speed when nabbing a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park. The return to dirt at Aqueduct shouldn't be an issue for this Kentucky shipper, but his career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating ranks among the lighter figures in the Withers field.
Smarten Up

Total 4 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
2

Show:
1

Top Speed Rating:
(86) when finishing third in a maiden special weight at Parx Racing.

Total Earnings:
$75,820

Owner:
Happy Tenth Stable

Breeder:
A. Francis Vanlangendonck and Barbars Vanlangendonck

Trainer:
Alfredo Velazquez

Jockey:
Anthony Salgado

Sire:
American Freedom

Dam:
Sarah Cataldo

Color:
Chestnut

Never out of the trifecta in four starts, Smarten Up ran strongly at a big price in Aqueduct's Jerome S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, rallying to finish second by just 1 1/4 lengths. But Smarten Up capitalized on a fast early/slow late race shape beneficial to his stretch-running tactics, and there's no guarantee he'll receive a similarly favorable setup on Saturday.
Gilded Age

Total 4 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
0

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(89) when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs.

Total Earnings:
$74,159

Owner:
Grandview Equine and Don Alberto Stable

Breeder:
Don Alberto Corporation

Trainer:
Bill Mott

Jockey:
Kendrick Carmouche

Sire:
Medaglia d'Oro

Dam:
Angela Renee

Color:
Bay

Gilded Age failed to hit the board in his first three starts, but the bay colt stepped forward sharply in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last fall, sweeping from off the pace to win by 2 3/4 lengths. This flashy victory produced an excellent 89 Brisnet Speed rating. Gilded Age hasn't run in 3 1/2 months, but the son of Medaglia d'Oro is bred top and bottom to improve with maturity, so there's a chance he can step forward on Saturday for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Courvoisier

Total 5 start(s)

Wins:
2

Place:
2

Show:
1

Top Speed Rating:
(86) when finishing second in a maiden special weight at Delaware Park.

Total Earnings:
$147,450

Owner:
Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings and James D. Spry

Breeder:
Elevage II and Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings

Trainer:
Kelly Breen

Jockey:
Ruben Silvera

Sire:
Tapit

Dam:
Take Charge Brandi

Color:
Chestnut

Steady improvement has been the career profile for Courvoisier, a son of three-time leading sire Tapit out of champion filly Take Charge Brandi. A maiden winner racing 1 1/8 miles, Courvoisier has already found success on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, tracking a hot pace before kicking on to win Aqueduct's Jerome S. by 1 1/4 lengths. Sold for $600,000 as a weanling, Courvoisier is living up to his lofty purchase price and ranks among the key candidates to win the Withers.
Unbridled Bomber

Total 5 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
0

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(84) when breaking his maiden at Belmont Park.

Total Earnings:
$70,500

Owner:
Edward C. Potash, Brad Yankanich, and James T. Ryerson

Breeder:
Unbridled Explosion

Trainer:
James T. Ryerson

Jockey:
Jorge A. Vargas Jr.

Sire:
Upstart

Dam:
Unbridledexplosion

Color:
Dark bay/brown

Rallying into a hot pace helped Unbridled Bomber break his maiden racing one mile at Belmont Park. But the son of Upstart failed to capitalize on a similarly quick tempo in the Jerome S., closing only belatedly to finish fourth, and he'll need a stronger finish to factor against tougher competition in the Withers.
Noneedtoworry

Total 5 start(s)

Wins:
2

Place:
0

Show:
1

Top Speed Rating:
(89) when winning a Parx Racing allowance.

Total Earnings:
$55,520

Owner:
Herold O. Whylie

Breeder:
Claiborne Farm

Trainer:
Herold O. Whylie

Jockey:
Silvestre Gonzalez

Sire:
Algorithms

Dam:
Need

Color:
Chestnut

Noneedtoworry couldn't keep pace with Smarten Up in a pair of maiden special weights at Parx Racing last year, but the chestnut colt has improved in the interim. He enters the Withers off back-to-back victories racing one mile and 70 yards at Parx, including a clear-cut triumph in a Jan. 18 allowance. As a deep closer, Noneedtoworry may be at the mercy of the Withers pace, but a spot on the board at solid odds isn't out of the question.
Un Ojo

Total 4 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
1

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(82) when finishing second in the New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct

Total Earnings:
$126,321

Owner:
Cypress Creek Equine

Breeder:
Southern Equine Stables

Trainer:
Anthony Dutrow

Jockey:
Trevor McCarthy

Sire:
Laoban

Dam:
Risk a Chance

Color:
Dark bay/brown

A stretch-running gelding, Un Ojo enters the Withers off a runner-up finish in a seven-furlong division of the New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct, where he closed ground gamely to miss by a neck. But that effort came against fellow New York-breds, and the 82 Brisnet Speed rating Un Ojo received is among the lower career-best figures in the Withers field. He may need improvement to challenge against unrestricted competition.
Early Voting

Total 1 start(s)

Wins:
1

Place:
0

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(86) when breaking his maiden at Aqueduct.

Total Earnings:
$44,000

Owner:
Klaravich Stables

Breeder:
Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer:
Chad Brown

Jockey:
Jose Ortiz

Sire:
Gun Runner

Dam:
Amour d'Ete

Color:
Dark bay/brown

Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown won the 2021 Withers with Risk Taking, and he'll seek to nab a second straight edition with Early Voting. A son of hot young sire Gun Runner, Early Voting was clearly best in his debut racing one mile at Aqueduct, dueling for the lead before kicking on to win by 1 1/2 lengths with a solid 86 Brisnet Speed rating. Brown has been hot at Aqueduct, going 7-for-20 (35%) since Dec. 9, so Early Voting is a serious threat to win the Withers.
Mr Jefferson

Total 6 start(s)

Wins:
2

Place:
0

Show:
0

Top Speed Rating:
(82) when finishing fourth in the Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct.

Total Earnings:
$82,020

Owner:
R. Larry Johnson

Breeder:
R. Larry Johnson

Trainer:
Michael Trombetta

Jockey:
Eric Cancel

Sire:
Constitution

Dam:
Clockstrucktwelve

Color:
Chestnut

With six starts under his belt, Mr Jefferson is the most experienced runner in the Withers field. Victorious against maiden and allowance company at Colonial Downs and Laurel Park, Mr Jefferson has already taken a couple of spins on Aqueduct's Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth in the Remsen S. (G2) and sixth in the Jerome. Racing over a sloppy track may have compromised Mr Jefferson in the Jerome, so if he gets dry footing on Saturday, Mr Jefferson can potentially bounce back and challenge for a top-four finish.
Cooke Creek

Total 4 start(s)

Wins:
2

Place:
1

Show:
1

Top Speed Rating:
(86) when finishing second in the Nashua S. (G3).

Total Earnings:
$100,800

Owner:
Cheyenne Stable

Breeder:
Candy Meadows

Trainer:
Jeremiah O'Dwyer

Jockey:
Manny Franco

Sire:
Uncle Mo

Dam:
Genre

Color:
Dark bay/brown

It's hard to knock anything Cooke Creek has accomplished. So far, he's broken his maiden, nabbed the Rocky Run S., come home second in the Nashua S. (G3), and battled to third in the Jerome. Cooke Creeke was particularly gutsy in the Jerome, tracking a hot pace before weakening slightly in the final furlong. The question is, can Cooke Creek stretch out over 1 1/8 miles? He lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in both the Nashua and the Jerome, hinting longer routes may push the limits of his stamina. Negotiating a favorable trip from post 11 could also prove tricky.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Picks: Holy Bull S. Day on February 5
By J.N. Campbell


Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, February 5, 2022

Race 1: 4-10-5-3
Race 2: 2-1-4-7
Race 3: 5-1-3-7
Race 4: 3-2-6-1
Race 5: 1-5-3-4
Race 6: 4-8-1-10
Race 7: 2-6-1-8
Race 8: 6-3-5-2
Race 9: 8-12-4-9
Race 10: 7-6-5-9
Race 11: 6-8-7-2
Race 12: 2-13-10-12
**Most Likely Winner: Tiz The Bomb #6 (Race 11)**
**Best Value: Flowmotion #2 (Race 12)**

LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 9: Dirt, 7F, OC62.5k, 4+)

The kickoff to this Late P4 is a tough 1-turn, full field contest on the MT. This is going to be a long road, but I have a couple of strong opinions. My top choice is Mark Casse’s layoff entry, Soup and Sandwich #8. This colt by Into Mischief was a “rising star” along the Derby Trail, and it is good to see him return to the racetrack. The choice of Luis Saez is an excellent move, and I like the slate of workouts of late … This 4-yr-old should be ready to fire. Just in case this one doesn’t, I also like another layoff runner called Candy Man Rocket #12. You will remember this son of Candy Ride (ARG) when he won the Sam Davis (G3) at Tampa. Now, his 2022 debut has arrived … With regular rider Junior Alvarado back at the controls, it will be interesting to see Frank Fletcher’s charge back in action. Trainer Bill Mott has gotten this one ready, and I like the angle. Either of these colts looks full of promise, and their prices will be more than square!

Selections: 8/12 (2-Deep)



LEG 2: (Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, Sweetest Chant S. (G3), $100k, 3F)

Heading to the GP Turf Course, we find ourselves in the middle of a challenging Grade 3. This is just the type of race where a long shot could force the destruction of many a ticket. After this race, if you told me Saffie Joseph’s Running Legacy #9 won, or Myfavoritedaughter #5 took home the top spot, I would just nod in agreement. In other words, you could make a case for any one of these. I do not often advocate hitting the “All” button, but if you can afford it, then it is something to consider. As far a top pick, I do like Javier Castellano’s mount, Ocean Safari #6. Trainer Gil Zerpa does not have a large barn, but that doesn’t mean he cannot make a play here. Last out, in the 100k Ginger Brew, this filly by Temple City was pretty competitive. One other turfer that I would not leave out, is Chad Brown’s Miss You Ella #7. Ridden by expert lawn jockey Irad Ortiz, there is no way that this daughter of Declaration of War is going to be 10/1 come post time. She must be considered a major play ... what with her breeding ... plus, the connections that are involved here. Let’s err on the side of caution, and go as deep as possible.

Selections: 1-10 (All)



LEG 3: (Race 11: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Holy Bull S.(G3), $250k, 3)

Earlier in the week, I said I was against Todd Pletcher’s entry in the Holy Bull S. on Saturday, and I am standing by that assertion. Mo Donegal #2 will be a popular choice on Saturday afternoon, and there are more than a few bettors who think he has the ability to get to the Derby Day Starting Gate. I am sure that is possible, but I do not think that he makes the switch from Aqueduct to Gulfstream Park. Instead, I am sold on the running ability of Kenny McPeek’s Tiz the Bomb #6. I think the breeding and talent of this colt is impressive, and even though I might not be a fan of Phoenix T-Breds, I think the world of this conditioner. He brings Brian Hernandez in from the Fair Grounds to ride, and I do not think that the surface switch will be much of an issue at all. We last saw this runner at Del Mar in the BC Juv. Turf (G1), and we all know how surreal that contest was for everyone. It is good to see McPeek’s charge working well. What this colt by Hit It a Bomb can do is rate, and use his late gears to effect. It should be a fair track on Saturday at Gulfstream, and this one will be a great price. This is a “Single” for me … plain and simple.

Selections: 6 (Single)



LEG 4: (Race 12: Turf, 1 Mile, Clm16k, 4+)

The “curtain call” on this Saturday Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park is, of course, a claiming contest on the turf. My top selection, and probably one of my best bets of the day, is Jane Cibelli’s Flowmotion #2. Here is a gelding by Warrior’s Reward that is getting back to the grass after a rest. He was on the Tapeta at Gulfstream back in November, and did not do well. That is ok because sometimes these regular grass types do not always appreciate the surface switch. I like the fact that the experienced 8-yr-old is drawn in the 2-hole, and that means that Junior Alvarado can take up a position 2-3 off the front. He doesn’t need the lead, but it cannot hurt. Cibelli does not have a magnificent meet going on right now, but she is particularly good in spots like these. The level is appropriate considering this one’s back class. He is going to be a price. In case I am flat wrong about this entry, then I am going to take a few of the horses that are drawn to the outside. They are at a disadvantage being drawn out that far, but this is turf racing, and anything can happen. The green bloodline of Surprise Factor #9 … the riding ability of Luis Saez on Vettori Kin #10 … the class relief for Mo Ready #12 … and finally, the experience at this track for Also-Eligible, Uncle Curly #13 … are all compelling. These reasons make me want to put these in. Let’s use them, and get this ticket home!

Selections: 2/9/10/12/13AE (4 or 5-Deep)

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Ticket: 8-12 / 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 / 6 / 2-9-10-12-13AE

.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $50.00