Saturday 2/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Weekend GamePlan for Feb. 5, 2022: Picks for Holy Bull, Endeavour, Sweetest Chant

Marcus HershFeb 03, 2022


Oaklawn Park has canceled, the weather in New York, where Aqueduct had a two-stakes card, looks rough, and Santa Anita’s stakes feel chalky. Let’s make it an all-Florida affair in this Weekend GamePlan.

Holy Bull

Todd Pletcher has merely won four of the last 10 stakes he’s entered, a cataclysmic drop from his start to the Gulfstream Park championship meet, when Pletcher entered horses in six stakes and won them all.

The Todd Train’s relentless Gulfstream roll could continue with horses in four more stakes Saturday culminating in the Holy Bull. Are we hopping aboard? We’re not.

Mo Donegal carries Pletcher’s banner in the Holy Bull. The colt showed grit and talent in a three-start, late-season New York campaign capped by a win in the Remsen. The Remsen, as most know by now, has for years been a negative key race in terms of 3-year-old stakes production, and Mo Donegal’s 90 Beyer might overrate his performance. He has posted a series of encouraging works (even kinda sorta holding his own against the monster Colonel Liam) but is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line and possibly due for a tricky inside trip from post 2.

The Holy Bull’s major pace factor is Simplification, who holds no appeal in these quarters. He dominated a soft one-turn mile in the Mucho Macho Man and his subsequent workouts look better on paper than do the ones available on video.

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White Abarrio stands to get the perfect pressing trip outside Simplification, and his Kentucky Jockey Club, which looks pretty good on paper, was at least a little better than it looks on paper. The issue: a gap in works between Jan. 10 and Jan. 28.

Tiz the Bomb aired in his lone dirt start and was visually impressive doing so, but the opposition was about what you’d expect for an early July off-turf maiden race at Ellis Park. I think he’s got a chance to handle dirt and the price ought to be square, but he, like Mo Donegal, does shoulder 124 pounds, giving a meaningful six pounds to my selection, Giant Game.

I’d be hoping for a little more than the 7-2 morning-line price on Giant Game and think that might be plausible since consensus is starting to question the strength of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I question it too, but Giant Game was racing just three weeks after a second-start, first-route maiden win, and he actually might have poked his head in front of Corniche at the head of the homestretch before losing momentum.

In any case, that was an encouraging performance first time against other winners and Giant Game’s maiden win got a major boost when runner-up Call Me Midnight won the Lecomte Stakes. Giant Game appears to have worked with verve over the Gulfstream strip and with luck and a decent break he can duck into a good spot tracking White Abarrio while two wide into the first turn. From there, we’ll see if he’s made progress into his 3-year-old season. Trainer Dale Romans, for what it’s worth, ran two-three in the 2019 Holy Bull.

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Endeavour

Lady Speightspeare is the likely favorite in an appealing renewal of the Endeavour but still, even at this relatively advanced stage, is making mistakes during her racing. I’m not sure she’s quite as good as her recent speed figures and she was scratched last Saturday out of the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf.

I gave Morning Molly and Oyster Box, both drawn wide, long looks. Morning Molly loves Tampa Bay Downs and was only prepping last out in a Gulfstream sprint. Oyster Box has been working well with the good older horse English Bee, and could get a favorable setup.

But In Italian has star potential. Yes, she’s beaten modest opposition in her two wins, but this filly has a wicked turn of foot to go with her positional pace, and she need not lead to succeed. I think she’ll prove tactically versatile if need be and is set to step forward with her best race.

Sweetest Chant

Nostalgic showed her low debut Beyer Speed Figure did not consign her to a career at Finger Lakes when she came back with a very decent Demoiselle fourth, and I feel strongly that the filly is meant for turf. A lack of pace could prove a complicating factor, but if Junior Alvarado can just maintain some sort of decent position from Nostalgic’s rail draw, I think she’ll run this group down.

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Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 5, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

You want horse racing? Then prepare to be happy, because we’ve got a triple fistful of stakes races from Aqueduct Park, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park for our Saturday wagering entertainment.

The competition even includes two Kentucky Derby prep races, the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream and the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. I cover eleven races in total instead of my usual nine, and surprisingly, I found a wealth of underdog moneymakers to make our bankrolls happy.

Oh, and remember that you can always find the full race-cards for all the tracks at our best horse racing wagering sites.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack

Let’s start on the main track with race three, the Toboggan Stakes (Grade III), a $150,000 purse, seven-furlong run for four-year-olds and upward. With the morning-line favorite’s 1/5 lock on the win, it seems ill-advised to pick the second-favored entry in this five-horse race—but that’s just what I’m going to do: Bet on Hopeful Treasure, the 4/1 underdog ridden by Trevor McCarthy, to win.

While the favorite has posted some good speed figures in regular allowance and maiden races, Hopeful Treasure has been posting them in graded stakes races like his most recent, the Fall Highweight Handicap (Grade III) in November. For the record, the six-year-old moneyed ten of his 14 career starts, winning six.

Longtime horse racing veteran Michael L. Catalano, Jr. trains Hopeful Treasure for Just In Time Racing LLC.

Race seven is a one-mile allowance race on the main track for four-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the front half of the 1/1A coupled entry: the 6/1 sleeper Starting Over, piloted by Kendrick Carmouche.

This five-year-old gelding finished in the money six of his nine career starts, winning one. He notably finished a hard-won third in the San Marcos Stakes (Grade II) last February at Santa Anita.

Robert N. Falcone, Jr. trains Starting Over for Nice Guys Stables.

Race eight is the Withers Stakes (Grade III), a $250,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles run on the main track for three-year-olds. The Withers Stakes is a prep race for the Kentucky Derby, and awards qualification points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1).

I like the 9/2 underdog in this eleven-horse field: Courvoisier, with Ruben Silvera in the irons.

This colt finished all five of his career starts in the money, winning two, including his most recent—the Jerome Stakes (Listed) last month here at Aqueduct.
The two horses the morning-line thinks will prevail here have run nothing but maiden races, while Courvoisier provides solid—and recent—evidence that he can win at the stakes level. Advantage: Courvoisier.

Breeders’ Cup and Belmont Stakes veteran Kelly J. Breen trains Courvoisier for owners Hill ‘n’ Dale Equine Holdings, Inc. (J. G. Sikura) and James D. Spry.
Saturday Picks for Gulfstream Park

Let’s start with race five—the Claiborne Farm Swale Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, seven-furlong race for three-year-olds. I agree with the morning-line here: Buy a win ticket on the 3/1 favorite, My Prankster, with Luis Saez aboard.

This colt moneyed three of his four career starts, winning two—his initial maiden attempt at Saratoga, and his most recent run, an allowance race here at Gulfstream.

In between those, he finished fourth in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont in early October and then finished second in the Bowman Mill Stakes (Black Type) at Keeneland later that same month.

Hall of Famer Todd A. Pletcher trains My Prankster for owners Lawana L. Low and Robert E. Low.

We move to the turf course for race seven, the Kitten’s Joy Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles grass run for three-year-olds. I’m calling this one for the second-favored (at 7/2) Red Danger, piloted by veteran jockey Julien R. Leparoux.

This colt finished in the money four of his six career starts, winning three, including the Global Tote Juvenile Sprint Stakes (Listed) at Kentucky Downs in September and the Pulpit Stakes (Listed) at Gulfstream in December.

He also finished second in the Street Sense Stakes (Listed) at Churchill Downs and fourth in the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland, both in October.

Breeders’ Cup veteran Brian A. Lynch trains Red Danger for Silverton Hill LLC.

We’re back on the dirt track for race eight, the Forward Gal Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, seven-furlong run for three-year-old fillies. The Forward Gal Stakes is a prep race for the Kentucky Oaks, and awards qualification points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1).

I’m betting my two dollars on the third-favored (at 9/2) Diamond Wow, ridden by Romero Ramsay Maragh.

This filly moneyed all three of her career starts, winning her initial maiden run here at Gulfstream in August, where she then went on to win the Our Dear Peggy Stakes (Black Type) in September. Oh, and she visited Keeneland in October long enough to finish second in the Jessamine Stakes (Grade II). She’ll do.

Patrick L. Biancone trains Diamond Wow for owners Diamond 100 Racing Club, LLC, Amy E. Dunne, and Patrick L. Biancone LLC.

Moving to the turf for race ten, we’ve got the Sweetest Chant Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles run for three-year-old fillies.

In a surprisingly unimpressive ten-horse field, I’m backing the 9/2 underdog—Nostalgic, with top jockey Junior Alvarado in the irons.

This filly finished in the money for one of her two career starts, winning her initial maiden attempt in October, then finishing fourth in a field of eight at the Demoiselle Stakes (Grade II) in December at Aqueduct.
She earned that fourth place the hard way, breaking eighth and having to fight her way foir the next nine furlongs to finish fourth.

Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup legend William I. Mott trains Nostalgic for Godolphin, LLC.

Back on the dirt track for race eleven, we have the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III), a $250,000, 1-1/16 miles race for three-year-olds. The Holy Bull Stakes is a prep race for the Kentucky Derby, and awards qualification points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1).

While I’m impressed with the morning-line favorite’s record, I like the 6/1 underdog: Tiz the Bomb, piloted by Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

This colt moneyed all but one of his five career starts, and won three, including the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes (Black Type) in September and the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland in October. He most recently finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I).

Ranked among the top trainers in North America for the past 22 years, Kenneth G. McPeek trains Tiz the Bomb for Phoenix Thoroughbred, LTD.
Saturday’s Picks for Santa Anita Park

We begin on the grass with race one, the Thunder Road Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, one-mile grass run for four-year-olds and upward. I agree with the morning line here, so I’m betting on the 8/5 favorite, Subconscious, with top jockey Juan J. Hernandez aboard.

Even in a talented field of six, this four-year-old gelding stands out, with five money finishes in seven career starts, three of those wins, including the Twilight Derby (Grade II) in October. He also finished fifth in a field of 14 at the Hollywood Derby (Grade I) at Del Mar in November.

Hall of Famer Richard E. Mandella trains Subconscious for LNJ Foxwoods.

On the dirt track for race seven, we’ve got the Santa Monica Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, seven-furlong race for fillies and mares four years old and upward. This is my no-brainer pick of the day: Bet the 3/5 morning-line favorite, Ce Ce, ridden by veteran jockey Victor Espinoza.

This six-year-old mare finished 12 of her 16 career starts in the money, winning eight, including most recent two: The Chillingworth Stakes (Grade III) here at Santa Anita in October, and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade I) at Del Mar in November.
Ce Ce has a long history of graded stakes wins. In 2020 she aced both the Apple Blossom Handicap (Grade I) at Oaklawn Park and the Beholder Mile Stakes (Grade I) here at Santa Anita.

Michael W. McCarthy trains Ce Ce for owner-breeder Bo Hirsch, LLC.

Race eight is the San Pasqual Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt run for four-year-olds and upward. I’m betting my two dollars on the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Express Train, ridden by Victor Espinoza.

This five-year-old moneyed 12 of his 15 career starts, winning five. Three of those wins were in 2021: the San Pasqual Stakes (Grade II) last January, the San Diego Handicap (Grade II) in July at Del Mar, and the San Antonio Stakes (Grade II) in December.

Does Express Train know how to win a Grade II stakes race? I submit that he does.

John A. Shirreffs trains Express Train for C R K Stable LLC. Shirreffs tapped Espinoza to saddle Express Train for his most recent victory in the San Antonio Stakes.

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Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, February 5
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

MUSSELBURGH

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.57 Pay The Piper

1.29 Bardenstown Lad

2.05 Cool Mix

2.40 Fiveandtwenty

3.10 Smart Lass

3.45 Mighty Thunder

4.19 Soldier Of Love

GIMCRACK

12.57 Pay The Piper

1.29 Bardenstown Lad

2.05 Cool Mix

2.40 Socialist Agenda

3.10 Sarvi

3.45 Highland Hunter

4.19 Soldier Of Love



KEMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.55 Dark Company

5.25 Yorktown

5.55 Nahanni

6.30 Rainbow Dreamer

7.00 Bobby On The Beat

7.30 Adaayinourlife

8.00 Pedestal

GIMCRACK

4.55 Wonder Starelzaam

5.25 Harbour Project

5.55 Nahanni

6.30 Nayef Road

7.00 Lincoln Gamble

7.30 Twistaline

8.00 Win Win Power



SANDOWN

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.40 Shallwehaveonemore

1.15 Gunsight Ridge

1.50 Goshen (nb)

2.20 L’Homme Presse

2.55 Dans Le Vent (nap)

3.30 Farinet

4.05 Peejaybee

GIMCRACK

12.40 Shallwehaveonemore

1.15 Gunsight Ridge

1.50 Goshen (nap)

2.20 L’Homme Presse

2.55 Dans Le Vent (nb)

3.30 Five Star Getaway

4.05 Whydah Gally



LEOPARDSTOWN

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.05 Hollow Games

1.35 Vauban

2.10 Riviere D’etel

2.45 Dunboyne

3.15 Kemboy

3.50 A Wave Of The Sea

4.25 Facile Vega

GIMCRACK

1.05 Hollow Games

1.35 Fil Dor

2.10 Haut En Couleurs

2.45 Good Time Jonny

3.15 Frodon

3.50 A Wave Of The Sea

4.25 Facile Vega



WETHERBY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.50 Dancing With Deco

1.22 Schiehallion Munro

1.58 Miss Lamb

2.30 Saint Palais

3.00 No Risk Des Flos

3.38 Law Of Gold

4.10 Dr Seb

GIMCRACK

12.50 Our Jet

1.22 Barton Knoll

1.58 Amber Gold

2.30 Ahoy Senor

3.00 No Risk Des Flos

3.38 Dubai Quest

4.10 Rathmacknee

Northerner – 1.22 Schiehallion Munro (nap); 1.58 Miss Lamb (nb).


LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.11 Peerless Percy

1.45 Obsidian Knight

2.16 Base Note

2.51 Radetsky

3.25 Fancy Man

4.00 Good Effort

4.35 Coase

GIMCRACK

1.11 Peerless Percy

1.45 Fight For It

2.16 Neat And Dandy

2.51 Deputise

3.25 Al Zaraqaan

4.00 Lord Of The Lodge

4.35 Militry Decoration

Newmarket – 1.45 Needle Lace (nb); 4.00 Good Effort (nap)

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Santa Anita stakes spot plays for Feb. 5
John Mucciolo

Three graded stakes tilts will highlight a fine day of racing at The Great Race Place on Saturday.
Race 1 – Thunder Road S. (G3)

One-mile test on the green attracted six, led by #1 Subconscious (8-5) who will make his four-year-old debut for Richard Mandella. The gelded son of Tapit is a Grade 2 winner on the course and appears to be best suited to the mile trip after tiring late in the Hollywood Derby (G1) most recently. Bred in Kentucky, the dark bay possesses excellent tactical speed in a mostly paceless affair, and he should get a fine trip from the rail under the guidance of Juan Hernandez.
Race 6 – Santa Monica S. (G2)

Fillies and mares will travel seven-eighths on the dirt with a compact field of five set to go postward. I am not sure that any can upend Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) queen #2 Ce Ce (3-5) if she is ready to fire her best shot while making her seasonal bow.

But, Baffert’s #3 Merneith (7-2) makes just her second start since December of 2020 and could be a major player with a clean break from the gate in this dash. The American Pharoah mare dominated this race last season with a pace pressing trip to the top of the stretch, and she figures to receive a similar voyage this time around. She has been training in swift fashion on the course in advance of Saturday.
Race 8 – San Pasqual S. (G2)

A well-matched field of six will travel nine panels on the main strip in what is a difficult handicapping assignment. 2020 San Antonio S. (G2) winner #1 Kiss Today Goodbye (15-1) is wildly inconsistent overall, but the Cairo Prince five-year-old is capable of running huge on occasion, and I have to play him at an inflated morning-line price. The one-run closer has endured prior success on the Santa Anita strip, and his latest offering was simply too bad to be taken seriously. The dark bay will be saving ground every step of the way under the guidance of Abel Cedillo.

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, February 5
Posted on February 4, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 5: O SHEA CAN U SEE (#4)

Runabout is clearly the horse to beat based on his 2021 form, and he showed in his return on New Year’s Day that he still has some ability left. Competing at this level, he actually ran better than that third-place finish would indicate. He got sandwiched between horses and squeezed back at the start, putting him last in the early going over a speed-favoring track. He then moved up mid-race, but got guided down to the rail for the stretch drive and seemed to get discouraged. I like the turnback to a mile and he’ll be tough to beat with any kind of step forward. I’m against Flowers for Lisa and Playwright. The former rode a speed bias two back, and the latter took advantage of a very weak field last time. Twisted Tom makes a bit more sense since he at least belongs at this level. He was badly overmatched at Parx last time and was compromised by a slow pace two back. I want to go for a bigger price as my top pick. O Shea Can U See hasn’t been competitive in his recent starts, but he’s been facing tougher company at the $16k and $20k levels. He actually ran pretty well in his return from a layoff in November, and then he was compromised by a slow pace two back before catching a speed-favoring track last time. There’s not a ton of early speed signed on, but this race could still come apart if the track is playing how it was on Friday.

RACE 7: SOUTHERN DISTRICT (#7)

Three Jokers will be pretty tough for this field to handle if he repeats his last race when gamely he chased home the talented Core Conviction going this distance. He got a pretty wide trip that day and seemed to appreciate the turnback in distance as he found something a little extra late. He also may have appreciated getting back on Lasix, as his form seemed to dip in his prior starts against stakes company. Three Jokers had run some pretty big races earlier in the year and it seemed like he got back to that form last time. He has the tactical speed to be sitting just off the early leaders and figures to get the jump on main rivals. No Burn is somewhat interesting on the cutback in distance. He obviously wanted no part of a two-turn 1 1/8 miles last time, and he was also involved in a fast pace that day. He ran a big speed figure two back, albeit against weaker company. Yet the Wiliam Morey barn is dangerous and must be respected. I think there’s some speed to go with him on the front end, so I want a closer. Southern District comes out of the same race and may work out the right trip. His connections stubbornly kept running this guy on the wrong surface for more than half of his starts. He has a dirt pedigree, and he’s run his best races on the dirt. If you just isolate those main track performances, he’s posted TimeformUS Speed Figures of 104, 105, and 109, all of which make him a major player in this spot. He was no match for winner Waxman last time, but that horse is a pretty good one. Now he cuts back to a one-turn mile, which could be good for him since he figures to get an honest pace ahead of him. Chad also takes the blinkers off, as he didn’t seem to improve at all when they were added and he got a little too rank with them last time.

RACE 8: UNBRIDLED BOMBER (#6)

Early Voting and Constitutionlawyer, both recent maiden winners over this track, could vie for favoritism in this wide open edition of the Withers. The former won his debut going a one-turn mile for Chad Brown in December. It was a solid effort, but the runner-up was getting to him late and that horse has a little hang to him. Early Voting needs to improve, but he certainly has upside as the most lightly raced member of this field. However, Chad Brown is just 3 for 15 (20%, $1.21 ROI) with second time starters in graded stakes dirt routes over the past 5 years. Constitutionlawyer handled this distance when he broke his maiden last time, but he did so riding a rail and speed bias on Jan. 2. Furthermore, the horse who was second to him that day returned to disappoint as the 1-5 favorite when regressing on Thursday’s card. I want to go in a different direction. Among the recent maiden winners, of which there are a few, I’m most interested in Grantham. This horse was workmanlike in victory over the Tapeta surface at Turfway last time. Yet I liked his debut at Churchill, in which he stayed on to be second in a deceptively strong race. He strikes me as one that will have no issues with added distance. I’m also not against Courvoisier, the Jerome winner. He handled this distance two back, and survived a fast pace to win last time while racing off the inside. He makes plenty of sense and is unlikely to be favored here. Yet my top pick is a different horse exiting the Jerome. Unbridled Bomber did get pace to close into in that spot, but he was outside, well off the rail, for the first half of the race before angling inside on the turn. He was moving up quickly approaching the quarter pole, but lost momentum when forced to alter course around a tiring Hagler in upper stretch. I think that cost him a placing. He’s slowly but surely been figuring things out, and he strikes me as one that should relish the 1 1/8 miles distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2022 Kitten’s Joy Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
February 4, 2022

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. GRAND SONATA (3-1) – After a rough trip in his stakes debut at Aqueduct in November, he came through narrowly in the Dania Beach S. as the favorite. Pletcher barn continues to stay hot this meet with 38 percent winners, though concern is an apparent lack of speed in this race could compromise him. The margin was only a head last time in similar circumstances, and he’ll be well backed again here.

2. COINAGE (6-1) – Surprise winner last summer of the With Anticipation (G3) when taking control of a paceless affair. He couldn’t replicate that strategy at Monmouth, where he encountered a troubled start, nor in the Breeders’ Cup, when he was outrun while breaking from post 12. With a limited number of other apparent pace players in the field, he might prove tough to catch.

3. RED KNOBS (12-1) – Trying turf again after being increasingly uncompetitive in main track stakes. Debut on the surface wasn’t great, but the distance was likely way too short, and he did rebound to take an off-the-turf heat over a mile. Dam is a half to G2 turf winner Surya, so chances are his turf ability isn’t as modest as advertised. However, he lacks much in the way of positional speed and the likely pace scenario doesn’t look favorable for him.

4. SPEAKING SCOUT (4-1) – Produced strong Brisnet Late Pace figures in a pair of main track starts last fall, so not too surprising that he displayed a solid kick in what was likely a modestly-run edition of the Pulpit S. on Dec. 3. Unlucky to lose a head bob to Red Danger there, and appears and obvious fit in this contentious field. Adds blinkers, too, which could be useful in keeping him close, given the possibility of another slow pace.

5. ELDON’S PRINCE (12-1) – Fell much too far off the pace in the Pulpit and can’t afford a similar trip in this speed-light field. Was coming off a bit of a layoff going into that race, too, so might prove sharper here, especially after a couple recent speedy works. Additional distance also works in his favor. Irad fans will get a rare price here.

6. ROYAL SPIRIT (5-1) – After detouring into stakes a couple times, this Into Mischief colt dropped back into maiden company and graduated convincingly as the 7-5 choice. Out-finished Coinage in the Nownownow S. at Monmouth, although that was more a function of the latter rating closer to a torrid pace. These two figure to be leading the way in this spot, and this colt’s tactical foot ensures he’ll get one of the first cracks in the stretch.

7. FATHER GLADO (8-1) – Mildly surprised when crashing the trifecta in the Dania Beach while making his debut against winner and on the turf. The pace was seemingly modest as winning favorite Grand Sonata only just got up, and this colt rated behind him the whole way. Will need to rate closer for best effect here, but is one of the more intriguing prices in a competitive field.

8. RED DANGER (7-2) – Precocious last season and from the start proved a capable performer on turf and in stakes. Rebounded from a couple losses, including one to the classy Tiz the Bomb, with an off-the-pace victory in the Pulpit here in early December, with Leparoux having to hand ride after losing the whip a furlong out. Recent drills, including a bullet half-mile in :46 and change, suggest he’ll be competitive again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Piassek's Plays: Looking West to California Turf
February 4th, 2022 by John Piassek

Saturday, Feb. 5

Santa Anita Park, Race 5, post time 5:33 p.m. ET
Television schedule

Friday, Feb. 4: 3 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Feb. 5: 2:30 p.m.-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Feb. 6: 3 p.m.-4 p.m. on FS2; 4 p.m.-5 p.m. on FS1; 5 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

#9 Gregory's Pride: A field of nine will travel one mile on the grass in this first-level allowance-optional claiming race, including a pair for trainer Phil D'Amato. Most bettors will gravitate toward #6 Prince Abama, who finished second at this level last out and gets the riding services of Santa Anita's top jockey, Flavien Prat.

However, upon closer examination, something interesting pops out. Umberto Rispoli has been riding both Prince Abama and Gregory's Pride consistently, yet was named on Gregory's Pride. That's a positive sign in my mind. This colt has been competitive at this level, but has struggled to break through, with four second- or third-place finishes in his last four starts. Last out, he was blocked most of the way, but kicked on well once he was clear and got second. I don't know if he's better than Prince Abama, who finished a strong second in his first start at the level with a big speed figure. However, Rispoli's endorsement is encouraging and Gregory's Pride will almost certainly be the better value of the two.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$6 to win on 9

$3 exacta: 9 with 6

$1 exacta: 6 with 9

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$15 to win on 9

$7 exacta: 9 with 6

$3 exacta: 6 with 9

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$30 to win on 9

$14 exacta: 9 with 6

$6 exacta: 6 with 9

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, post time 6:38 p.m. ET

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#8 Mucho Del Oro: The 7th race on the card is a competitive second-level allowance-optional claiming race at 6 1/2 furlongs on Santa Anita's unique downhill turf course. Mucho Del Oro overcame some traffic to win a first-level race last out. He was checked at the start and dropped to the back of the pack but recovered to draw into contention at the top of the stretch. He had enough left late to win a stretch battle by a half-length. Trainer Vladimir Cerin has quietly had a strong Santa Anita meet, with six wins from 16 starters. If he breaks cleanly, this one should rate just off the leaders and make a winning move as they cross over the dirt and onto the main turf course.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$4 to win on 8

$3 exacta: 8 with 9, 10 ($6 total)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$7 to win on 8

$5 exacta: 8 with 9, 10 ($10 total)

$1 trifecta: 8 with 9, 10 with 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 ($8 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$14 to win on 8

$10 exacta: 8 with 9, 10 ($20 total)

$2 trifecta: 8 with 9, 10 with 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 ($16 total)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Turfway Park: Forego Stakes exotics plays for Feb. 5
John Mucciolo

Nine dashers will go 6 1/2 furlongs on the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park in Saturday’s $100,000 Forego S. I see the one-turn heat as a virtual two-horse race and will play it that way.

#7 Sir Alfred James didn’t fire in his second 2022 performance on the Fair Grounds turf course last time out, but it was his fine victory two back that leads me to siding with him in the Saturday feature. The gelded son of Munnings made his first All-Weather appearance in the Holiday Cheer S. at Turfway on January 1 and was never headed en route to a fine, 6 1/4-length romp under John McKee.

The six-year-old earned a robust 99 Brisnet Speed figure in that tilt, and the fleet bay figures to receive a similar trip to that one in this spot while on the front end early. Trained by Norman Cash, who claimed him for $62,500 in September, the Kentucky-bred is the pace of the race for a conditioner who is having good success at this meeting. McKee will be back in the stirrups.

#5 Visitant is the main danger to the top pick and will be a formidable foe with his top effort. By Ghostzapper, the six-year-old from the barn of William Morey was a superb allowance vicor on the oval in December to move his local line to a nifty 5-4-0-1. The underrated bay is seven-for-14 overall in his lifetime, and his strong turn of foot will make him tough to deny late in this cast.

The Kentucky-bred posted a hefty 100 Brisnet Speed figure last time out, and he shows four solid morning drills in the interim. He will stalk the early tempo with Gerardo Corrales in the silks.

In the race for third, I will side with #1 Race Driver. The gelded son of Distorted Humor is not a prime win threat in my opinion, but he is consistent with six top-three finishers from as many tries on synthetic, including a runner-up result in his lone prior run at Turfway. The Kentucky-bred fired a bullet half-mile most recently to signal his readiness for Saturday.
Forego Wagers

$25 exacta 7 with 5 ($25)
$15 exacta 5 with 7 ($15)
$5 trifecta 5, 7 with 5, 7 with 1 ($10)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Winners for Saturday, February 5th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
DELTA DOWNS
RACE #10
TIME: 5:26 PM EST
PICK: BET #1 Izzy’s Baby Boy 5/1 odds to win @ Bovada

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

February 5, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Way To Close (4-1)-Zipped home with a 55.2 back half last week and has won 3 of 6 at M1. Came the last quarter in .27 and McCarthy should have this 6-year-old forwardly placed throughout.
4-Lifeonthebeach A (9/2)-Showed some early speed last time to finish 2nd to the one above. Zeron may try a different plan to come off cover and could be helped by solid fractions.

Race 7

2-Just N Ace (3-1)-Raced from the back in a needed start and rolled the 2nd half in .56 flat. Finished a close 2nd on 1-22, should be tighter tonight and looks like a main player.
4-Bank Sea (7/2)-Faced $30k claimers from the 7 hole at YR on 1-24 and that didn't work out well. Fits well with this group and could be posing if races back to the previous Big M start.
5-Winning Linc (8-1)-Didn't have the best of trips in last and could benefit with the driver change to Marcus Miller. Draws well to get a stalking trip and is worth a swing at the program odds.

Race 8

3-Always And Again (15-1)-Looking for a price in a race without a true standout and will lean towards TMac's choice. Has been stuck outside in the last 2 starts and should relish the post relief. Will look for an aggressive steer for this Per Engblom trainee.
4-Ana Afreet N (7/2)-Cullipher 7-year-old drops to a nice spot in the 2nd start off the bench. Stayed inside last time and did pace the 2nd half in 55.2 with a 26.3 last quarter. That effort puts him in the hunt and should be tighter this time.
5-Rockin The Aces (9/2)-This 5-year-old drops to a level where he is usually a threat and Callahan knows well. Offers a solid price and should be racing near the top of the stack. Has hit the board in 27 of 55 M1 starts with 13 wins.

Race 9

6-Rockin Speed (7/2)-Using both Jen B entries and this was Joe's pick to drive. Raced fine in a fast mile on 1-22 which was the 1st start since in 7-19. Looking for more and could be sitting right behind his barn buddy until shakes loose down the lane.
7-Rockin M (3-1)-Andy Miller will be in the bike this time and will be looking to reward the connections with another top check. Could be looking to get on the point and make every call a winning one.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,4/2,4,5/3,4,5/6,7
Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary

February 5, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Subconscious

Forecast: Subconscious (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5) was a graded stakes winner over the Santa Anita lawn during the fall meeting but then couldn’t overcome a poor draw and weakened to finish a respectable fifth in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar in November. Freshened and sporting a solid series of workouts in the interim, the R. Mandella-trained gelding tackles considerably easier foes in this year’s renewal of the Thunder Road S.-G3. His favorable inside post position in a race that projects to be slowly run early makes him the logical controlling speed, so at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Tapit looks very much like a high-percentage rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Subconscious (January 24, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:27.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, caught him the final three-quarters of this drill (from the five-furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole) with splits of :24.4, :37 flat, 1:01.4 and 114.4, ridden and asked in the final stages, solid work under the circumstances. Good, stamina-producing move for a grass specialist working alone. Freshened and should be plenty fit based on this drill.
View Workout Video

Ready Soul (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a few lengths behind Admiral Halsey (5f, 1:01.2h TT) and was ridden through the lane to be a head best at the wire, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:00.3 on our watches, solid move with steady splits. Always has been kind of a grinding type, prefers the Santa Anita turf course.
View Workout Video

Hurricane Cloud (January 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1hg). Grade: C+
Never changed leads in main track gate drill with Gold for Kitten (same time) for J. Sadler, ridden most of the way while getting out on the turn, splits of :24.4, :36.3, :49.1 and 1:02.1, second best when eased up after five furlongs. Obviously won’t show his best stuff until tried on turf, European shipper was a useful sort last year, but we’d tend to prefer to see one first.
View Workout Video


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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 2-Big Sweep; 4-Sharapova; 5-Del Mar Drama

Forecast: At least three of the five entrants in this first-level allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares have credentials to win this six furlong main track sprint, so we’ll pass the race in the win pool. Big Sweep, first or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, returns off a three month vacation with a steady series of easy drills that should have her plenty fit. With a history of firing fresh and reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, the M. Glatt-trained mare is strong in the speed figure department and has shown the versatility to win on the lead or from a stalking position. She’s 8/5 on the morning line and is the one to beat. Sharapova earned a strong speed figure when winning a restricted maiden affair here last year before being stopped on. Her work tab is a bit light, so it’s possible she’s prepping for longer, but the daughter of Outwork picks up Johnny V. and could be a better type this time around. Del Mar Drama earned a confidence-building victory last month in a starter optional claimer over this track and distance. She projects to be last of five early on, but with some help up front could be heard from late. The main push goes to Big Sweep but the other two can be included on a back-up ticket if you feel the need for insurance.

Notable Workouts:

Sharapova (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Didn’t change leads but was never really asked in gate drill outside Syzslak (same time), stalking that one early under a nice hold and then proving slightly best while strictly on her on, splits of :24.2, :37 flat, :49 flat and 1:01.3 on our watches. Seems to be coming back well, hard to say how cranked up she is at this stage of her work pattern.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Shaaz

Forecast: Shaaz graduated at first asking in late December and did so with a stakes-quality speed figure in a race that already has proven to be productive. A $1.1 million 2-year-old in training purchase in 2020, the son of Uncle Mo is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance event but certainly will go lower, perhaps closer to 2/5. He’s unplayable at that price, of course, but you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

Notable Workouts:

Shaaz (January 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
Was late changing leads but proved a length best In company outside Triple Tap (5f, :59.1h) for Baffert, splits of :23 flat, :34.4 and :59 flat, a bit green but lengthening out impressively in the closing stages. Much ability, son of Uncle Mo should quickly move up the class ladder in to stakes races later this winter and spring.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 3-Fort Bridger; 5-King Rob; 2-Awesome Rhythm

Forecast: Fort Bridger was well-meant in his debut last month but was nailed right on the money at 11-1 in a maiden $40,000 sprint after battling on the pace every step of the way. With any kind of forward move today, the son of Gio Ponti should be able earn his diploma, and a bullet training track workout since raced (4f, :48.1h, fastest of 10) is encouraging. The class drop to maiden $30,000 can’t be considered a sign of confidence but based on speed figures it’s a logical spot, so at 9/5 on the morning line, the R. Hanson-trained sophomore rates top billing. King Rob flashed ability in his debut when rallying to be second in a similar affair at Los Alamitos in early December but then raced greenly and was never a factor in the same race Fort Bridger exits. Perhaps with the addition of blinkers, the Bodemeister gelding will produce a significant forward move, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in. Awesome Rhythm is a first-timer from a capable outfit with a useful series of workouts to have him plenty fit. Obviously, he won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive at this level, so he’s another worth considering in a soft affair.

Notable Workouts:

Awesome Rhythm (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, breezing inside Carmelita’s Man (not asked, same time), easy early and smooth through the lane, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :48.2. not bad for Peterson. Sophomore gelding has bit of run though probably not a quick type, belongs in a moderate spot in his debut.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Prince Abama; 9-Gregory’s Pride; 8-Carmelita’s Man

Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a first-level allowance turf miler that attracted a competitive field of nine. Prince Abama is steadily improving on speed figures and has finished first or second in all four starts since being imported from Ireland. He’s a one-paced grinding type and this one mile distance might be a tad sharp for his style, but with the switch to F. Prat the P. D’Amato-trained gelding should fire his best shot. Gregory’s Pride is drawn farther out than we’d prefer (he’s outside of nine) and he’s also winless in four starts over the local lawn, but as the “other” D’Amato he’ll have a good look if he can get over and secure a decent stalking position in the opening furlong. A third place performance two runs back over this course and distance puts him squarely in the hunt. Carmelita’s Man lacks tactical speed but is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is a strong fit based on his best numbers. He was race-shape aided in a recent state-bred win at this condition during the fall meeting before being stopped on, but recent workouts should have him plenty fit. If a better-than-average pace materializes, he should make his presence felt late. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three in our rolling exotics, but you may feel the need to go a bit deeper.

Notable Workouts:

Carmelita’s Man (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B-
Never really asked much while even with Awesome Rhythm (same time, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :48.2, plenty left late. Freshened since the fall and seems to be coming back as well as he left.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Ce Ce

Forecast: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1 winner Ce Ce returns in this year’s renewal of the Santa Monica S.-G2 and the daughter of Elusive Quality, with recent workouts that should have her plenty fit, projects to outclass her four rivals at a very short price. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and with eight victories from 16 career starts, the M. McCarthy-trained mare has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong distance and should be along in plenty of time as a very short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Ce Ce (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h). Grade: B
In company outside Law Professor (same time) for M. McCarthy, ridden through the lane while slightly second best, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.4. to record second fastest half mile drill of 87 for the morning. Looked fine, not great, but has never really been much of a worker. Plenty fit and will be odds-on in the seasonal debut.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Count of Amazonia; 5-Coulthard; 8-Mucho del Oro

Forecast: Count of Amazonia and Coulthard, two-three finishers in a similar downhill slalom event last month, should get most of the play in this field of older turf sprinters, though in a 10-runner affair there are others to consider as well. Clearly most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home, Count of Amazonia hit the front but got tagged late by subsequent stakes winner Barraza last time out and a similar effort today – perhaps with a bit more patient ride – should make tough to beat. Coulthard was sent from the rail and cut out rapid splits, led the way crossing the dirt strip but weakened under pressure close home to be beaten almost two lengths. He’s another that might prefer waiting tactics from a more favorable five-hole post. Mucho Del Oro earned a solid number when winning over the flat course here from a softer allowance field in good style. He’s won half of his 10 career starts, three of which have been accomplished over the local lawn, so while he’s tackling tougher today the V. Cerin-trained gelding is a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.

Notable Workouts:

Coulthard (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, drifted well off the rail entering the lane while staying stride-for-stride inside Perfectionistic (same time) for P. D’Amato, final quarter mile in :24.2, a tad the best at the wire after going off slowly. Maintains his form, seeking another turf sprint for conditioned allowance company.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Express Train; 6-Law Professor

Forecast: Express Train won the 2021 San Pasqual S.-G2 before finishing second in the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 and looks to be in similar form this year following a game but all-out score in the San Antonio S.-G2 in late December. At this nine furlong trip, the son of Union Rags should be able to grind out another victory in a race that projects to have enough pace to compliment his second flight, stalking style. Law Professor is lightly-raced with rising speed figures but will need to produce another forward move to extend his winning streak to three. The Constitution gelding has good tactical speed and projects to enjoy an ideal trip outside in a stalking position just off American Theorem and/or Eight Rings. We’ll see what he can do from there.

Notable Workouts:

Express Train (January 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Ridden late to be a neck best outside Midcourt (5f, 1:00.2h) for J. Shirreffs, splits of :23.1 and :47.2 for the final half mile, solid work. Maintains his form, should be the one to beat in the San Pasqual S.
View Workout Video

Law Professor (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h). Grade: B+
Sharp half mile main track drill while a tad the best over Ce Ce (same time), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.4, mildly coaxed in the final furlong. Continues to improve with experience, gets tested for class in the San Pasqual S.-G2.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 11-Fly to Mars; 3-Hail Freedom; 1-Like the Wind

Forecast: This extended sprint for first-level allowance Cal-bred older horses has a number of possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Fly to Mars has lost a step or two at age eight but this turn back to a sprint could help a lot. First or second in eight of 16 career starts at various distances over the Santa Anita lawn, the son of Ministers Wild Cat should be able to secure a mid-pack early position and then have dead aim and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Hail Freedom has found his niche as a turf sprinter and graduated last time out with a pace-forcing trip that produced an okay number. Better will be needed today, but F. Prat stays aboard and should have the D. O’Neill-trained colt within striking range throughout. Like the Wind won at first asking sprinting on grass last year but then disappeared. He’s a first time gelding with a modest series of drills and must overcome the rail post but returns protected so we’ll assume he’s doing well. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth using on the ticket.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Saturday at Gulfstream

February 5, 2022 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The G3 $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes is the third leg of a strong Late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and a trio of colts will attempt to move to the top of the race for the Florida Derby.

Mo Donegal (3-1 morning line), Tiz the Bomb (5-1) and Giant Game (7-2) attempt to get top-level start to their sophomore campaign. It’s a good group and they’re big players in the sequence, which covers races 9-12. The Holy Bull is the 11th.
The suggested Pick 4 ticket amounts to $63, and here are the combatants:


9th Race (4:05 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

SOUP AND SANDWICH was second in the Florida Derby here last year and has been idle since October, when he tired in the Perryville at Keeneland. Mark Casse has him back where he’s done his best running, and the Into Mischief colt has a long string of very good works for his return. This is a strong allowance optional claiming race, and a trio is being used on the ticket.
Also on the ticket: VIOLENT CITY, CANDY MAN ROCKET.


10th Race (4:37 p.m. ET, Sweetest Chant Stakes-Gr. 3)
NOSTALGIC drew the rail in what looks like an absolute free-for-all. The Bill Mott-trained filly broke her maiden with ease at Belmont two back and made a significant step up the class ladder with a fourth in the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct. Has worked once a week since New Year’s Eve Day and the Godolphin runner looks like she fits in this despite not having a lot of experience. There are so many with a legitimate chance, and it makes this the biggest spread race in the sequence.
Also on the ticket: OPALINA, OCEAN SAFARI, MISS YOU ELLA, BATTLE CHARGE, RUNNING LEGACY, HAL’S DREAM.

11th Race (5:10 p.m. ET, Holy Bull S.-Gr. 3)

GIANT GAME made a nice move into contention and held on for third behind Corniche and Pappacap in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. That was only the third career start for the Dale Romans trainee who broke his maiden at Keeneland after running third in his debut at Churchill Downs. He has enough speed to be in good position from the outside post, and rider Saez, who is still hitting at an impressive 25-percent clip at Gulfstream, likely will give him a good trip.
Also on the ticket: MO DONEGAL, TIZ THE BOMB.

12th Race (5:43 p.m. ET, claiming)

VETTORI KIN has spent much of his time racing in higher levels and makes his first Gulfstream start of the year after finishing up 2021 with a sixth-place finish in the mud at Aqueduct. He’s been consistent lately in showing a closing move on turf and has the talent to fire against these.
Also on the ticket: MO READY.

Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4:
9) #8 Soup and Sandwich, #10 Violent City, #12 Candy Man Rocket.
10) #1 Nostalgic, #2 Opalina, #6 Ocean Safari, #7 Miss You Ella, #8 Battle Charge, #9 Running Legacy, #10 Hal’s Dream.
11) #2 Mo Donegal, #6 Tiz the Bomb, #9 Giant Game.
12) #10 Vettori Kin, #12 Mo Ready.
The ticket: 8-10-12 with 1-2-6-7-8-9-10 with 2-6-9 with 10-12 ($63).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Paris Paramour She finished with some serious enthusiasm in the Keeneland try two starts back, and there are more than a couple in here with some positional pace, so there is a chance the splits are on the fair side. Along late at a price?
#5 Lolloping Have to think this well-bred filly is going to be set to fire right out of the box, but this is a pretty competitive bunch on paper, and she could get caught up near an honest pace if she's keen at first asking.
#2 Missoni She stepped forward nicely when adding Lasix at second asking, and she might have a decent enough rating gear to settle back along the inside and save some ground while watching everything unfold.
Race Summary Decent Betmix Longshot Score of 44 in here, suggesting it might be worth looking for some price alternatives. Paris Paramour has the ability to show up late, and there appears to be a decent enough bit of pace signed on today. Something like the two-back try is good enough to hang with these.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Ballinonabudjet He has always done good work over the local footing, and he exploded in the lane last out to beat an easier group. He should be in line for a really good trip while spying the speed, and he gets a capable replacement while his recent rider is sitting days out.
#6 Martinized The form here can be hit or miss, but he's a pretty sharp finisher on his best day, and this might not be the deepest group for this level.
#7 Luckenbacher He probably has some upside in this second start off the bench, and he occasionally flashes the kind of pace that would leave him in front of a modest bunch. Best chance here is to go.
Race Summary Ballinonabudjet has some really reliable dirt form if you draw a line through the spotty turf efforts, and he looks plenty logical while rising to this level off the easy score last time out.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Seeking Sawyer He posted a nice $23 win last time out when rained over to the main track, but his mom was a pretty good one on the grass, so I think his future probably lands there. Capable on either surface today, but I'm excited to follow what I hope is some positive development on the lawn.
#3 Burninhunkoflove He would probably benefit if this came over to the main, as he doesn't have any questions to answer on the footing there after the sharp debut win. Still, tactical speed can be in the mix with these on the turf.
#2 Holy City Like the way he moved forward in that turf debut last time out, but again he will need to work out a trip from the rail draw. I would want him on the multi-race plays, as there is a chance he tucks in for a perfect trip.
Race Summary Seeking Sawyer has been on my radar since day one, and he hasn't done much wrong in two starts. His future may be on the grass, but he proved last time out that he can be a threat on any footing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #2
Picks Notes
#4 CHASER HANOVER Hard used as beaten favorite, can maximize his speed in here.
#2 SHAMMA LAMMA Plagued by bad posts, will be running late on class drop.
#3 WAIMAC ATTACK N Showed pulse in tougher condition, can land minor awards.
Race Summary Chaser Hanover emerged from a 4-way battle for the lead in the pocket, brushed to the lead at the quarter pole, dueled through the turn with the 29-1 winner and wilted late as the odds-on choice. He can rebound in an ideal pace-controlling role. Bet on him to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 FOUR FINGER FLOYD Tries to recapture 3yo form, worth a price shot.
#4 HESINCONTROL Some late interest in recent starts, gets driver upgrade.
#6 ROCK N ZEUS Strong rallies for a win and a second, Roy sticks.
Race Summary Four Finger Floyd can spring an upset if you can get by his last race. He has good speed and has kept quality company after winning 11 of 21 starts last year. Play a 3-4-6 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#1 SPORTS REPORT Met tiger in latest, fits condition well, moves outside in.
#6 HIPPY JOHN Exits same key race as top one, won eight times last year.
#2 ROYAL TANG Set fast pace, opened up, held on at 1-to-5 odds.
Race Summary Sports Report paced evenly against Linedrive Hanover, one of the sharpest horses on the grounds, in his last start. He gets class relief and draws inside of post 7 for the first time this year, so give him the nod. Play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Of a Revolution Suffered his first loss in three starts when he ran out of racetrack in the Limehouse Stakes; keeps Gaffalione and can enjoy the seven furlongs.
#1 My Prankster Was up in time as the 1-5 favorite in an optional claiming race; he was a well-beaten fourth in the G1 Champagne Stakes in October.
#2 Graphic Detail Was entered in this after being entered Friday; couldn't keep up with fast fractions and finished fourth in the Mucho Macho Man. To be taken seriously if he goes in this.
Race Summary Of a Revolution just missed last out and looks built for the distance.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Coinage Pressed the pace and faded to ninth in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; is a graded winner and looks solid vs. these.
#1 Grand Sonata Closed well and was up in time in the Dania Beach last out; can be even tougher with more distance, like he gets today.
#4 Speaking Scout Has rallied strongly in four of five races and lost a photo last out; gets more ground and can fire late.
Race Summary Coinage has taken on superior company and does well on or close to the lead.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Radio Days Toyed with maiden and optional claiming company at Belmont and Aqueduct and moves into graded stakes company; Gun Runner filly has some serious acceleration.
#6 Girl With a Dream Held on well at Fair Grounds last out and looks for her third straight win; can go with the flow when it comes to pace.
#7 Diamond Wow Rallied strongly and just missed in the Jessamine at Keeneland; that was her only loss in three, and she's a big player today.
Race Summary Radio Days moved up to better company after blowing out foes in New York; good chance to stay unbeaten.