Saturday 2/12/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Quick Picks for February 12, 2022

Aqueduct Racetrack (NYRA)
Race #1- #7 BOINTHEBACK; #4 JOHNSELECTRICRIDE; #8 SELL SOMETHING
Race #2- #1A HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH; #2 GIRL OF TOSCONOVA; #1 MATOULA
Race #3- #4 FREDDYMO FACTOR; #5 RAFFINITY; #1 SCOTT ALAIA
Race #4- #4 CAPTIVATING CARA; #1A CARLY HUSTLE; #6 APPRECIATE
Race #5- #9 BUILT TO LAST; #5 RIA’S ANGEL; #7 CENTRAL PRIDE
Race #6- #8 BECAUSEOFTHEBRAVE; #3 PRALINE PECAN; #4 MY DELICIOUS
Race #7- #6 AMERICAN MONARCH; #5 SCOCCIATORE; #8 RYAN’S CAT
Race #8- #5 BARESE; #7 BOLD JOURNEY; #6 GENO
Race #9- #3 TRINITY TITOLI; #7 DOC DOC ROCK; #1 BIG BEAN CHRISTINE


Charles Town Racing
Race #1- #4 ASCENDED; #1 NOW I’M BROKE; #3 SPLIT THE PACK
Race #2- #7 CHEESE LOUISE; #5 WINDRUSH KARMA; #4 DAMISELA
Race #3- #7 WOODSONG’S CASTLE; #3 AADHANA; #5 AS IT SHOULD BE
Race #4- #3 OUT OF ROMANCE; #8 COLETTE’S SPIRIT; #1 MY DREAM GIRL
Race #5- #6 LOOKIN’ SMART; #3 DESTINY’S CHARGE; #4 HIGH PRINT
Race #6- #3 HOLIDAY BONUS; #7 QUICK ENTRY; #2 WALL
Race #7- #5 CAIRO CALLING; #6 GOLDEN HUGHES; #7 UOTTALIKEIT
Race #8- #5 BOUNDTOBEBAD; #1 DEVILISH BEAUTY; #4 FUDGE CAKE
Race #9- #8 REMYS GUNSMOKE; #7 ROCKET J.; #2 CATS DIAMOND BOY


Delta Downs
Race #1- #2 STORM BREACH; #7 MARYJO’S DUCHESS; #8 CAGED BEAR
Race #2- #3 BOW AND ARROW; #4 MINNESOTA MIRACLE; #5 PINCH ASSAULT
Race #3- #6 LAKE MARIE; #3 RUN NATALIE RUN; #8 CECE WAVE
Race #4- #3 FROSTED GRACE; #4 DOUBLE STAR; #6 IT MAKES SENSE
Race #5- #8 BUXTERHOOTER; #7 TURN ON THE MAGIC; #5 TAKING NOTES
Race #6- #6 GOODROCKINALVIN; #1A PRADO’S PRIORITY; #5 KINLEE’S SONG
Race #7- #3 BEAUTIFUL ENDING; #1 FINNLEYS ENCORE; #7 ROCKETT MAGIC
Race #8- #11 SAILING JETT; #9 FLASH ME BACK; #4 SHAR’S TREASURE
Race #9- #8 CYBER SNEAKER; #5 MY WICKED WISH; #9 CHICKEN OR THE EGG


Fair Grounds Race Course
Race #1- #5 CUSTOMIZE MY QUEST; #6 MISTA VALENTINE; #8 JOEBOY
Race #2- #4 OUR BLUE JAY; #1 MANGELSEN; #5 JACI’S ROYALTY
Race #3- #3 STRONG CHICK; #2 FISH N CHICK; #7 KATIE’S KARAT
Race #4- #9 MISHKO; #4 GUNNISON; #7 MAJESTIC SIGN
Race #5- #8 THE COMPLETE COURT; #6 ACTIVE GIRL; #4 OMA LEE
Race #6- #5 PRIMA BALLERINA; #4 PORONUI; #8 AWESOME HOPE
Race #7- #2 HOIST THE GOLD; #6 FEROCIOUSLY; #3 JESUIT
Race #8- #11 PRINCESS LEA; #1 YOUENS; #6 HOHOHOHO
Race #9- #2 DUVEE; #1 HELAIRE; #4 MR ELVIN


Golden Gate Fields
Race #1- #6 EGOMANIA; #3 STAY LIT; #5 L L L COOL
Race #2- #4 THE CALABRESE KID; #2 INTO BOURBON; #7 FULL OF LIFE
Race #3- #5 LOAFERS BOY; #6 OF GOOD REPORT; #3 BACK RING LUCK
Race #4- #8 LONELY ON TOP; #7 TAM TRICKY; #5 LA POPIS
Race #5- #3 GOVENOR’S PARTY; #4 GALLANT WARREN; #1 HEAT N REHEAT
Race #6- #4 TAMARA MINE; #8 VIVA LA FIESTA; #11 GETAWAY CHARM
Race #7- #2 TESORO; #3 READY SAY GO; #6 CHARLITO
Race #8- #2 MACKINNON; #6 BOISE; #8 MEETMEATTHECLUB
Race #9- #6 VANTAGE POINT; #8 AMIKO CHOW; #1 CHAMPAGNE PEGASUS


Gulfstream Park
Race #1- #8 CLASSIC FILM; #5 MUROMEC; #9 MY MAN VITO
Race #2- #5 ADMIRAL TRUFFLES; #1 LUCKY LUCAS; #2 NOBEL
Race #3- #2 MILLEFEUILLE; #4 PENS STREET; #6 TWILIGHT
Race #4- #3 LEMONADE LADY; #5 SONGTELLER; #6 LETS RUN TWO
Race #5- #7 GEAR JOCKEY; #1 WARRIOR’S PRIDE; #5 BELGRANO
Race #6- #9 CHESS NOT CHECKERS; #7 LITTLE BELITA; #11 QUEEN CUPID
Race #7- #12 MAYOR REMO; #11 BIG BLUE; #3 GONNA BE EPIC
Race #8- #2 MISS J MCKAY; #6 MISS AURAMET; #1 REINAGOL
Race #9- #10 CHARGE IT; #8 TOUCH CODE; #4 ENOUGH ALREADY
Race #10- #5 HIGHEST HONORS; #1 EN WYE CEE; #4 CHESS’S DREAM
Race #11- #3 TRAPPEZOID; #6 UNBRIDLED HONOR; #7 SIR OLLIE
Race #12- #11 PARQUETRY; #1 SIR SAMUEL; #8 TWIRLING BLUES


Laurel Park
Race #1- #3 GUNHAND; #6 HEARTNESS; #5 DR. GRANT
Race #2- #6 ONE NIGHT STAND; #8 EXPECT THE SUNRISE; #2 RAPIDAMENTE
Race #3- #7 SPANIKOPITA; #6 SUNSHINEANRAINBOWS; #4 SPECIAL FREEDOM
Race #4- #4 CLICK TO CONFIRM; #2 JOE MIKE JIM; #5 MONARCH BEACH
Race #5- #9 PRINCE OF FENTON; #10 RHUMJAR; #3 GOLDENIZE
Race #6- #3 MI CLEOPATRA AND I; #4 LOVE IN HER EYES; #8 AWAY TO RETURN
Race #7- #3 CLOSERTOTHEHEART; #2 KERICS BEAUTY; #8 TARGE
Race #8- #1 D’ RAPPER; #2 SEANOW; #5 LOADED SNIPER
Race #9- #2 MINER’S GEM; #5 MENDING; #8 AMERICAN BASTET
Race #10- #2 CHICA RABIOSA; #7 CABRA CHICA; #5 NO MORE MASK


Mahoning Valley Race Course
Race #1- #4 IN SEARCH OF; #1 GO MANNY GO; #3 C F V WICKED RED
Race #2- #6 ULTRA RAYS; #7 CAT’S RHYTHM; #1A DRUMBEG
Race #3- #1 QUEENOFCATNIPHILL; #4 CARINA; #7 SILVER MAPLE
Race #4- #6 BLUSHING BETTY; #9 PIPER; #4 MARCIE’S CANDY
Race #5- #8 HIGH HEAVEN; #6 TREASURED NIKKY; #1 LEX K
Race #6- #6 FUNNY BACHELOR; #1 REALLY RED; #5 MA MOOS WARRIOR
Race #7- #4 ST PATTY’S SONG; #3 CRIKEY; #1A RONNI’S DAY
Race #8- #5 COME ALONE; #8 PANAMANIAN TEASER; #2 BREEZY MONEY
Race #9- #2 FORTUNATE GINA; #1 ADVENTURE LAND; #5 MY BELLE MICHELLE


Oaklawn Park
Race #1- #1 FIVE DREAMS; #6 VIOLENT GIGI; #2 INCORRUPTIBLE
Race #2- #8 PORTSMOUTH; #4 BRODY BOUCHER; #1 MR FROST
Race #3- #1 NOTARY; #2 HANKS; #9 JUNESANDRA
Race #4- #2 YOU VEE CEE; #12 EV’S SHERMAN; #8 KISSOFTHENILE
Race #5- #7 SAPPHIRE ROYALTY; #8 PARKIN IN THE REAR; #9 AIRBORNE GAL
Race #6- #7 BASEBALL POLITICS; #6 RIVERBOAT GAMBLER; #4 SOUIXPER CHARGER
Race #7- #10 STRATOFORTRESS; #4 STAINLESS STEEL; #1 GRAPNEL
Race #8- #7 COACH; #1 MATERA; #6 QUEEN GODDESS
Race #9- #2 JOYFUL CADENCE; #13 AVA’S GRACE; #5 CONNIE K
Race #10- #2 SUPER STOCK; #3 LONE ROCK; #8 PLAINSMAN
Race #11- #10 FRISCO LINE; #5 SWITZER; #1 SUMMER IN MALIBU


Sam Houston Race Park
Race #1- #5 SOUTHERN BELL MHF; #6 RB FASSYNATOR; #2 BAN OVER
Race #2- #6 SHESMYBROKER; #3 SISTEROFTHEMOON; #7 MAD TABBY
Race #3- #7 AMERICAN NIGHTMARE; #3 HIGH TONE; #5 VETERAN’S HOLIDAY
Race #4- #6 SWEET PRAYERS; #2 MY GOLDEN BLING; #4 RAGATAGTAG
Race #5- #7 GET OUT TONIGHT; #8 SUMMER CAT; #3 LADY SIERRA
Race #6- #3 MAC B QUICK; #4 GRADESTER; #1 SILVER LUKE SILVER
Race #7- #3 MIA BABY; #1 MISS WOW WOW; #6 COLD NIGHT AIR
Race #8- #7 MISS M J; #1 MS. RED ROCKETTE; #1A SHE’S AN ANGEL
Race #9- #7 BULL RING; #4 CAIRO WARRIOR; #5 LIGHT CRUISER
Race #10- #8 QUEEN OF THE LANE; #7 TAYLOR’S VISION; #6 CROSS BOSS LADY


Santa Anita Park
Race #1- #1 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE; #2 ANNAGHLASA; #4 CHARGES DROPPED
Race #2- #5 FOR LOVE NOT MONEY; #2 STOIC LUNA; #1 CAYTON KID
Race #3- #3 TRANSLATE; #9 EQUILOVE; #4 BESTRELLA
Race #4- #6 JAN’S RESERVE; #2 STARSHIP CHEWBACCA; #4 PELICAN WAY
Race #5- #6 ULTIMATE HY; #8 POP POP’S DREAM; #4 GLESGA GAL
Race #6- #2 SOMETIMES ALWAYS; #7 FURY KAP; #3 ME LIKEY
Race #7- #8 STERLING CREST; #6 PHENOM; #10 HEMMERLE
Race #8- #4 GOT THUNDER; #1 KEROUAC; #2 COVER ME UP
Race #9- #9 URBAN; #5 DOLLY MAY; #7 KITTY KITANA


Sunland Park
Race #1- #2 ROCKIN WITH REBA; #10 TICTACCARTEL; #6 CAT GOT A DIAMOND
Race #2- #9 CANDY GOING GRAND; #6 THATS DA ONE; #5 TELLEM IM HIGH
Race #3- #8 GOLD DIGGERS AVENGER; #10 MASTERDIAMONDCARTEL; #1 VGC FREDO
Race #4- #6 CAT DADDYS LIL GIRL; #1 BIGG DEE; #2 NO MIRES A LA LUNA
Race #5- #4 ZIVA DA'VID; #3 LONG RANGER; #1 KELL’S KISS
Race #6- #7 JAZZY HEAT; #5 KATE’S WARRIOR; #1 SOUNDOFME NOTCALLN
Race #7- #5 DIABOLICAL RULER; #1 NO PASA NADA; #4 DINOS DA DADDY
Race #8- #7 CONVENTION; #4 DYNAMIC RULER; #2 PIRATE JUNCTION
Race #9- #6 FANTASY SUITE; #1 SHACKEY’S LOVE; #4 MINISTERTOMYHEART


Tampa Bay Downs
Race #1- #1 CAMINERO; #3 DORSODURO; #4 BOURBON READY
Race #2- #8 CIELO D'ORO; #2 VENUS OYZO; #10 FAREWELL LADY
Race #3- #2 GIANT’S FIRE; #7 MOMENT OF PEACE; #8 KHUFU
Race #4- #6 CORNICE TRAVERSE; #12 MISS SUGAR HILL; #13 CROSS FLEET
Race #5- #8 GWENDOLA; #7 HOP PICKER; #3 NAPA CANDY
Race #6- #3 DROP A HINT; #5 POSEIDON’S PASSION; #2 NIGHT CAP
Race #7- #3 BABY YODA; #4 BANK ON SHEA; #5 PUDDING
Race #8- #2 NEST; #7 HA’ PENNY; #3 ALITTLELOVEANDLUCK
Race #9- #8 EDITOR AT LARGE; #10 GLADYS; #14 APPLECROSS
Race #10- #3 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY; #7 MAKE IT BIG; #6 TRADEMARK
Race #11- #12 DREAM LINER; #5 UNLEVERAGED; #10 MISSIONATTHESPA


Turfway Park
Race #1- #13 UPTOWN GUY; #11 SCHENECTADY STAR; #1 MATTHEWSTHIRTYFOUR
Race #2- #4 PETRICHOR; #5 B DEB’S FORTUNE; #2 GENERAL GINNY
Race #3- #1 DERBY HOUSE; #8 HOT PASTRAMI; #2 HIGHCOTTON JUSTICE
Race #4- #7 MOONLIGHT RAIN; #2 JEN TAKE CHARGE; #5 REDHOT KATIE
Race #5- #14 GIANT NOVA; #1 WOLFE COUNTY; #9 PERUVIAN LUCKY
Race #6- #7 COLORINCOLONEL; #6 SEDUCTIVE; #1 AVENIDA MANANA
Race #7- #6 MARISSA’S LADY; #4 BUBBLE ROCK; #2 ZAWISH
Race #8- #2 THEFABULOUS MOOLAH; #3 QUARIA THUNDER; #1 SPLIT DECISION
Race #9- #6 VISITANT; #4 DIVINE LEADER; #7 SIR ALFRED JAMES
Race #10- #5 BARBARINO; #10 TEMPESTA; #4 PRO BONO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park 5 Facts | February 8-14, 2022

February 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

None

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Off Track (38%, +$34.60)

Best Speed Fast Track (36%, +$22.60)

Trainer Current Meet (33%, +$8.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Dale Capuano // last week 6: 3-1-1 (50%, $2.02 ROI) // $5, $6, $12 winners // all 3 wins in claimers

T: Rodolfo Salomon-Sanchez // last week 4: 2-1-0 (50%, $3.53 ROI) // $8, $20 winners

J: Alexander Crispin // last week 4: 3-1-0 (75%, $3.53 ROI) // $6, $6, $15 winners // 3-3 around 1 turn

J: Forest Boyce // last week 5: 2-1-0 (40%, $2.74 ROI) // $5, $21 winners in dirt sprints

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | February 8-14, 2022

February 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$469,519 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes // 3-year-old filly turf sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Trainer 6 Month Win % (35%, +$20.80)

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (40%, +$3.20)

Best Speed Track (41%, -$8.80) *top-3 factor second straight week)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Bob Baffert // last week 9: 4-0-3 (44%, $0.90 ROI) // 3-3 with favorites // 5: 3-0-2 with John Velazquez

T: Ryan Hanson // last week 5: 3-1-0 (60%, $4.08 ROI) // $5, $11, $23 winners + 7-1 runner-up // 3: 2-1-0 in maiden claimers

T: Vladimir Cerin // last week 3: 2-1-0 (67%, $2.03 ROI) // $3, $9 winners on turf and dirt

J: Flavien Prat // last week 20: 8-3-1 (40%, $0.98 ROI) // 11: 6-1-1 with favorites // 2-3 with Mark Glatt

J: Mario Gutierrez // last week 7: 3-1-2 (43%, $2.19 ROI) // 5: 2-1-0 with Doug O’Neill // $4, $11, $14 winners

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | February 8-14, 2022

February 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$62,739 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

$100,000 El Camino Real Derby // 3-year-old routers on Tapeta // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Earnings Track (50%, +$24.00)

Jockey Current Year (46%, +$22.40)

Best Speed Last 3 (39%, -$0.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Jonathan Wong // last week 16: 6-5-1 (38%, $1.17 ROI) // 8: 4-2-1 with favorites // 3-4 with Bryan Pena

T: Jamey Thomas // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $2.18 ROI) // $4, $8, $13 winners all claiming sprinters on Tapeta

T: Tim McCanna // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $1.68 ROI) // $4, $5, $10 winners // 2-2 with Armando Ayuso

J: Armanda Ayuso // last week 17: 7-5-3 (41%, $1.33 ROI) // 7: 4-2-1 aboard favorites // 12-34 last 2 weeks

J: Bryan Pena // last week 9: 3-0-3 (33%, $1.57 ROI) // 3-4 with Jonathan Wong // 6-19 last 2 weeks

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream 5 Facts | February 8-14, 2022

February 8, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Wednesday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$321,243 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Wednesday)

Feature Race(s):

$100,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint // male turf sprinters // Saturday

$100,000 Ladies Turf Sprint // female turf sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Turn Time (31%, +$89.00)

Avg. Speed Last 3 (27%, +$11.80)

Win % (21%, +$28.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Antonio Sano // last week 15: 4-3-1 (27%, $1.10 ROI) // 5: 3-1-1 with Jose Ortiz // runner-up in Holy Bull with Simplification

T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week 10: 3-2-1 (30%, $1.49 ROI) // 4: 2-1-0 with Tyler Gaffalione // won Holy Bull with White Abarrio

T: Juan Carlos Avila // last week 6: 2-1-1 (33%, $4.70 ROI) // $8 and $48 winners + 7-1 runner-up with claimers

J: Jose Ortiz // last week 22: 6-4-4 (27%, $1.55 ROI) // wins all between $6-$15 // 5: 3-1-0 with Antonio Sano

J: Emisael Jaramillo // last week 9: 3-0-0 (33%, $1.71 ROI) // wins at $4, $10, $15 all on dirt

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: The Sweet Life at Santa Anita | Sat., Feb. 12
February 10, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Turf sprints top the marquee at both Gulfstream and Santa Anita on Saturday. After a nice cash in this space last week in Southern California, I'll stick with Santa Anita and focus on the $100,000 The Sweet Life at 6-1/2 furlongs down the hillside course. It's race 9 on the card so it will tie into both the Golden Hour Double and Golden Hour Pick Four with Golden Gate Fields for its sister track's big El Camino Real Derby Day card.

Field Depth:
This is a Grade 3 in classification, but the field hasn't proven themselves at this level. ELLAMIRA, in fact, is the only stakes winner. DOLLY MAY is stakes-placed. DOLLY MAY and the French filly OURAIKA have faced the top competition among these. This race absolutely is ripe for a class riser in good form

Pace:
With no must-have-the-lead types, HALF PAST TWELVE, BABY STEPS, IMPEACHD ALEXANDER and SHE'S SO SHINY all are candidates to compete for the front. Jockey intent will be key and front-friendly pilot Ricardo Gonzalez may be most likely to use the speed of IMPEACHD ALEXANDER. Deep closers will be challenged with a moderate pace to overcome.

Our Eyes:
OURAIKA comes to SoCal for the first time, via her Maryland new homebase and form lines from France and New York. Since 2017, her trainer Graham Motion is a surprisingly weak 2-44 at Santa Anita/Del Mar with only 1 of those wins in a stakes. That Motion's first inclination stateside with her was to run 1-1/16 miles gives me some pause just how effective she'll be over a top-of-ground, super-fast course like the downhill sprint. I'll try to beat her.

Golden Gate Debutante winner ELLAMIRA wasn't as effective on the Santa Anita turf as she was the Tapeta in Northern California. She didn't really fire with any rally in the Cal Cup Oaks at a turf mile. She and HALF PAST TWELVE are the only horses in this race who aren't eligible for non-winners of 2 lifetime, but the latter's last win came in allowance company at 21-1 and she's been beaten solidly in both prior bids after a victory. HALF PAST TWELVE out-dashed BABY STEPS in that allowance, though trainer Ryan Hanson's barn has picked up steam in the past week or so. BABY STEPS may be preferred of this trio, though none of them jump out at me.

The duo that lure me both won maiden races last out, URBAN and SHE'S SO SHINY. They're drawn in posts 9 and 10 on the outside, an advantage on the snaking, downhill course. URBAN was well thought of enough to be thrown into a stakes in her second start while still a maiden and wasn't embarrassed. She's got a win and third over this course. SHE'S SO SHINY should relish the outside post after wiring a turf mile maiden claimer last out in a time that matches up with anything this field has put out there. Turf milers with pace often excel down the hill, which also bodes well for last-out maiden breaker I GOT A GAL, who is training strongly but may be over-bet off a troubled start last out and wild recovery.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
URBAN is 5-5 in the superfecta lifetime and has ace Flavien Prat guiding the way.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
I'm thinking there will be maiden claimer anti-bias with SHE'S SO SHINY and hoping that's the price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win SHE'S SO SHINY. $10 exacta key-box SHE'S SO SHINY with URBAN and I GOT A GAL ($40).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Triple Crown Preps | Saturday, Feb. 12, 2022

February 11, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Two important races on the road to the Triple Crown will be held Saturday at Golden Gate Fields and Tampa Bay Downs. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Tampa Bay Downs // Race 10 // 4:54 pm ET // Grade 3 $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#8 Shipsational (6-1) // 25%W
#3 Classic Causeway (3-1) // 18%W
#13 Little Vic (15-1) // 16%W
#2 Unpredictable Bay (20-1) // 8%W

Golden Gate Fields // Race 8 // 7:30 pm ET // $100,000 El Camino Real Derby // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Boise (9-2) // 24%W
#2 Mackinnon (8-5) // 23%W
#3 Unraptured (10-1) // 12%W
#7 Dr Pescado (15-1) // 9%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: A New No. 1 on My Kentucky Derby Top 10

February 9, 2022 | By Jon White

Let’s get right to my updated Kentucky Derby Top 10, which has a new name at the very top.

Following Messier’s scintillating performance in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Sunday, he vaults to No. 1 on my Top 10 this week.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 has undergone major upheaval. In addition to a new No. 1, there are four newcomers to this list: Early Voting, Rattle N Roll, White Abarrio and Simplification.

Tiz the Bomb, Corniche, Epicenter and Pappacap exit my Top 10 this week. Depending on future developments, they could move back onto the Top 10 sometime on down the line.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Messier
2. Emmanuel
3. Smile Happy
4. Early Voting (new)
5. Rattle N Roll (new)
6. Classic Causeway
7. White Abarrio (new)
8. Simplification (new)
9. Newgrange
10. Slow Down Andy

I am not the only one who now has Messier ranked No. 1 for the May 7 Kentucky Derby.

The highly respected Jeff Siegel of 1/ST BET this week revealed his first Kentucky Derby rankings, which are based on projection, not resume, as is my Top 10. Siegel’s rankings are below:

1. Messier
2. Emmanuel
3. Smile Happy
4. White Abarrio
5. Rattle N Roll
6. Early Voting
7. Forbidden Kingdom
8. Major General
9. Zandon
10. Mo Donegal

Messier’s performance in the Lewis was clearly the best by a 3-year-old male so far in 2022. Backed down to 3-5 favoritism and breaking from the inside post, he was away in good order and reached the front before going a quarter-mile without being hustled to do so by jockey John Velazquez. Yes, that was Johnny V. in the saddle last Sunday. Yours truly predicted that might happen when I wrote the following for Xpressbet.com last month:

“Flavien Prat has been Messier’s pilot in his last three races. Prat rides many winners these days for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. However, in light of Messier’s defeat in the Los Al Futurity, is it possible that when the colt makes his next start, a different rider will be handling the reins? I would not rule it out.

“The combo of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and Baffert has been extraordinarily successful early in the Santa Anita meet, winning nine of the first 13 races in which they collaborated. That deserves a great big wow! And so a switch to Johnny V. when Messier makes his next appearance under silks does not seem all that far-fetched.”

Once Messier got the lead before going a quarter-mile in the Lewis, he stayed in front the rest of the way. But the Canadian-bred son of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker certainly did not have an uncontested lead in the early stages. He was hounded in the run down the backstretch by both Sir London and Cabo Spirit. Halfway down the backstretch, only about a half-length separated the trio.

Messier had blinkers removed for the Lewis following his loss in the Los Al Futurity when the runner-up. A positive aspect to his performance in the Lewis was he rated kindly in the early going despite having two rivals breathing down his neck.

Sir London cracked with a little more than three furlongs to go,. He began backpedaling and eventually lost by 26 1/2 lengths while finishing fourth in the field of five.

Passing the three-eighths pole, Messier led Cabo Spirit by three-quarters of a length, as track announcer Frank Mirahmadi accurately noted during his race call.

Midway on the far turn, with five-sixteenths to go, Cabo Spirit actually had cut the deficit back down a bit. But he was no match for Messier in the final quarter-mile.

Straightening away at the top of the lane, Messier increased his lead to about three lengths. Bounding down the stretch while moving with the grace of a ballerina, Messier extended this advantage to eight lengths at the eighth pole. He was 15 lengths in front at the finish.

Messier carved out fractions of :23.24, :46.94, 1:11.32 and 1:36.32 en route to a final time of 1:42.89. His individual splits were :23.24, :23.70, :24.38, :25.00, then :6.57.

It is interesting to note the dramatic difference between Messier’s starts at Los Alamitos and at other tracks.

In two starts at Los Al, Messier has lost both times. In two starts at Santa Anita and one at Del Mar, he has won by 6 1/2, 3 1/2 and 15 lengths.

From 1935 through 2006, the Lewis was known as the Santa Catalina. In 2007, the name of the race was changed to the Robert B. Lewis in order to honor the iconic racehorse owner, who passed away on Feb. 17, 2006.

Is Messier’s 15-length margin a Santa Catalina/Robert B. Lewis record? Well, I don’t know whether it’s the largest margin of victory going all way back to the race’s inauguration in 1935. But I can tell you it is by far the biggest margin by a Santa Catalina/Lewis winner in the Beyer Speed Figure era that dates back to 1991.

From 1991 on, the largest margin by a winner of this race was Artax’s 5 1/2 lengths in 1998. The next biggest was Larry the Legend’s five lengths in 1995.

Artax went on to become an Eclipse Award winner. He was voted champion sprinter of 1999.

Larry the Legend went on to win the Grade II San Rafael Stakes in his next start. He then captured the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, which that year had one of the strongest fields in its history. Afternoon Deelites finished second, followed in order by Jumron, Timber Country, Lake George, In Character, Petionville and Fandarel Dancer.

BEYERS FOR LEWIS WINNERS

Messier was credited with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure for his Lewis triumph. That was about what I expected. As mentioned earlier, his final time was 1:42.89. I went back to see what Life Is Good’s final time was when he won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes by eight lengths at the same distance last year. It was 1:42.18. Inasmuch as that would translate to 1:42 4/5 for Messier and 1:42 flat for Life Is Good in fifths, I was looking for Messier’s Beyer to probably be in the low 100s.

The 103 Beyer for Messier’s win last Sunday dwarfs the figure registered by the past six winners of the Robert B. Lewis -- Medina Spirit (94), Thousand Words (89), Mucho Gusto (90), Lombo (86), Royal Mo (94) and Mor Spirit (93).

The quality of the 2021 Lewis is reflected by the fact that Medina Spirit would go on to finish first in the Kentucky Derby and second to the older Knicks Go in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic. Hot Rod Charlie, who ran third in the 2021 Lewis, went on to finish third in the Kentucky Derby and win the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby prior to finishing fourth in the BC Classic.

To put Messier’s 103 Beyer in the Lewis into further perspective, it’s only the second triple-digit figure by a Lewis winner since Great Hunter recorded a 101 in the 2007 renewal.

Below are the Beyers for Robert B. Lewis winners going back to 1991 (the figures prior to 2021 are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):

2022 Messier (103)
2021 Medina Spirit (94)
2020 Thousand Words (89)
2019 Mucho Gusto (90)
2018 Lombo (96)
2017 Royal Mo (94)
2016 Mor Spirit (93)
2015 Dortmund (104)
2014 Candy Boy (96)
2013 Flashback (92)
2012 I’ll Have Another (96)
2011 Anthony’s Cross (91)
2010 Cartacortado (98)
2009 Pioneerof the Nile (98)
2008 Crown of Thorns (94)
2007 Great Hunter (101)
2006 Brother Derek (102)
2005 Declan’s Moon (97)
2004 St Averil (102)
2003 Domestic Dispute (103)
2002 Labamta Babe (105)
2001 Millennium Wind (99)
2000 The Deputy (103)
1999 General Challenge (95)
1998 Artax (109)
1997 Hello (97)
1996 Prince of Thieves (103)
1995 Larry the Legend (95)
1994 Wekiva Springs (97)
1993 Art of Living (91)
1992 Vying Victor (92)
1991 Mane Minister (93)

BEST 3-YEAR-OLD BEYERS OF 2022 TO DATE

Below are the highest Beyer Speed Figures by a 3-year-old so far this year:

BSF Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

103 Messier (won Robert B. Lewis, Santa Anita, Feb. 6)
97 White Abarrio (won Holy Bull, Gulfstream, Feb. 5)
95 Favorite Outlaw (won maiden race, Oaklawn, Jan. 29)
94 Adare Manor (won Las Virgenes, Santa Anita, Feb. 6)
94 Forbidden Kingdom (won San Vicente, Santa Anita, Jan. 29)
92 In Due Time (won alw/opt claimer, Gulfstream, Feb. 4)
92 Adare Manor (won maiden race, Santa Anita, Jan. 7)

A CLOSER LOOK AT TOP 10 NEWCOMERS

Early Voting, trained by Chad Brown, is two for two. I like this Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt a lot despite his unimpressive Beyer Speed Figures. In the wake of Early Voting’s 4 1/2-length win in Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes last Saturday, I have put him all the way up at No. 4 on my Top 10.

Granted, Early Voting received a weak 78 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Withers. That came on the heels of only a 76 Beyer when he won a one-mile maiden race by 1 1/2 lengths at the Big A last Dec. 28.

But the low Beyers notwithstanding, it takes a darn good colt to win at first asking going one mile, then succeed in front-running fashion at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track at the Grade III level in his next start.

Siegel believes Early Voting’s slow final time and low Beyer Speed Figure in the Withers should be taken in context.

“You could just sense the panic set in among his connections and his backers when it was revealed that Early Voting, a dominating gate-to-wire winner of the Withers at Aqueduct on Saturday, was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of ‘only’ 78, a number that might be good enough to win the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields this week, but certainly not in any stakes races for 3-year-olds at Churchill Downs.

“Indeed, the Gun Runner colt’s final three-furlong split [:41 3/5] could just as easily been timed with a sun dial, but because the main track was so deep, so tiring, so sticky and so treacherously slow, it was a given that any front-runner that had cut out similar early fractions to what Early Voting did would feel the effects through the lane and stagger home. That he managed to hold sway by more than four lengths with just a maiden one-turn miler as his only prior outing was, indeed, remarkable. There were some useful, decent colts behind him, too.”

T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News has Early Voting at No. 7 on the latest TDN Top 12. Smile Happy is No. 1.

“Early Voting is emerging as a speed-centric threat whose specialty is sustained intensity,” Thornton wrote. “Rather than blitzing his rivals with an all-out frontal assault, this $200,000 Keeneland colt torques them into submission, grinding away with metronomic efficiency.

“The splits for nine furlongs [:23.57, :24.47, :26.25, :27.46 for the first four quarters, then :14.15 for the final eighth] are more telling of the toiling nature of the track than the capability of the winner, [and] his so-so 78 Beyer might also be skewed in relation to his true talent.”

Steve Haskin of Secretariat.com has Early Voting at No. 11 in his Kentucky Derby rankings. Like Thornton, Haskin has Smile Happy ranked No. 1.

“Many are going to look at the ridiculously slow three-quarter and mile fractions [1:14 1/5 and 1:41 3/5] and sloth-like 1:55 4/5 final time and paltry 78 Beyer Speed Figure and dismiss this colt and the race as being a farce,” Haskin wrote of the Withers. “But if you know horses and look a bit deeper you will realize that this was a much better performance than the stats indicate and what an exceptional colt he has the potential to be, even though it is early to pass any judgment.”

Concerning the final time of the Withers, Haskin wrote: “Yes, it was slow, but this horse, who was making only his second start and first around two turns, rocketed out of the gate like he was in a sprint and he ran his opening quarter over the drying out muddy track in :23 2/5. To show how fast that was for a 1 1/8-mile race, in the six-furlong Toboggan Stakes, the brilliant 1-5 favorite Happy Medium [a 4-year-old] ran his opening quarter in the same :23 2/5 and tired badly, getting beat 10 lengths.”

Now that Rattle N Roll has logged workouts at Gulfstream on Jan. 22, Jan. 29 and Feb. 5, I felt the time has come to put him on my Top 10.

When last seen under silks, Rattle N Roll won Keeneland’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity by 4 1/4 lengths last Oct. 9. He did get just an 81 Beyer that day, though. The Kentucky-bred Connect colt is slated to make his 2022 debut in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.

White Abarrio makes his way onto my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week at No. 7 after collaborating with jockey Tyler Gaffalione to win the Holy Bull by 4 1/2 widening lengths at odds of 6-1 last Saturday. Holy Bull runner-up Simplification enters the Top 10 this week at No. 8.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., White Abarrio has won three of four career starts. His lone defeat came when he finished third to Smile Happy and Classic Causeway in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall.

The Kentucky Jockey Club has proved to be a much more productive race than the BC Juvenile.

Horses to have run in the BC Juvenile are a combined zero for 7 since that race was run. Ouch. Even the Japanese runner who finished 10th in the BC Juvenile, Jasper Great, is winless in two subsequent starts, finishing 12th and seventh in a pair of races in Japan this year.

Starters in the Kentucky Jockey Club have gone on to win only two of eight since that race, but the two wins came in graded stakes races -- White Abarrio in the Holy Bull and Call Me Midnight in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 22.

The plan for White Abarrio, according to his trainer, is for the Kentucky-bred Race Day colt to make his next start in Gulfstream’s Grade I Florida Derby on April 2.

Though Simplification did not win the Holy Bull, he ran one heckuva race with Hall of Famer Javier Castellano in the saddle. Simplification was widely expected to be the early pacesetter, but that scenario went right out the window when he broke poorly. It’s to Simplification’s credit that he was able to rally from seventh at odds of 7-2 to edge 8-5 favorite Mo Donegal by a head for the place.

Antonio Sano trains Simplification, a Florida-bred Not This Time colt.

“My horse ran great,” Sano said of Simplification’s Holy Bull effort in a Daily Racing Form story written by Mike Welsch. “The horse who won is an excellent horse, but if my horse broke better, the race is different. Javier did the right thing after that and my horse proved he can run well in front or from behind.”

According to Sano, Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5 is next for Simplification.

Sano did a wonderful job with Gunnevera, who in 2017 finished second in the Holy Bull before winning the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes by 5 3/4 lengths. Gunnevera, an earner of $5,561,800, finished second to Gun Runner in the Grade I BC Classic in 2018. In his final race, Gunnevera ran third to Thunder Snow and Gronkowski in the Group I, $12 million Dubai World Cup in 2019.

TIZ THE BOMB TROUNCED IN HOLY BULL

As mentioned earlier, Tiz the Bomb is now completely off my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. He was No. 1 last week. But Tiz the Bomb more or less turned out to be a “stink bomb” in last Saturday’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Going into the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull, when discussing Tiz the Bomb, trainer Kenny McPeek said he was “confident.” And why not? Tiz the Bomb had been working on the dirt at Gulfstream as well as, if not better than, Smile Happy. The two-for-two Smile Happy, also conditioned by McPeek, won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by an emphatic 3 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs last Nov. 27.

It turned out that Tiz the Bomb, who looked like he had gone through a car wash when heading to the starting gate, let down his trainer and everyone else like me on his bandwagon by finishing seventh in the Holy Bull. Tiz the Bomb lost by 20 1/4 lengths while defeating only two in the field of nine.

Giant Game, who finished eighth in the Holy Bull, was scheduled to undergo what trainer Dale Romans described as a minor throat procedure Tuesday, Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee reported.

Romans said that Giant Game “displaced his palate pretty bad” in the Holy Bull.

That means one of the only two opponents Tiz the Bomb outran in the Holy Bull was someone who had difficulty breathing.

And so it is that Tiz the Bomb goes bye-bye from my Kentucky Derby Top 10. He has been relegated to my “Bubbling Under the Top 10” list. And the only reason I’ve decided to go ahead and put him on that list is there’s still a path for him to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

My good friend Ryan Stillman called a McPeek tweet to my attention. This is what it said: “Tiz The Bomb ate a lot of dirt/sand. Humbling game, @b_hernandezjr said he struggled with dirt in his face and the track. We will likely give him one more chance on dirt or synthetic before spring. First instinct is Spiral @Turfway Park.”

The “Spiral,” McPeek referred to is actually Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks. It will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on a synthetic surface April 2. This race offers 100-40-20-10 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. It’s not hard to picture Tiz the Bomb finishing first or second, which almost certainly would furnish him with more than enough points to get into the Run for the Roses.

I’ve tried to keep Corniche on the Top 10 as long as I can. But now that it’s early February and he has yet to appear on a work tab, I just can’t keep him on the Top 10 any longer.

Corniche is still in Kentucky at WinStar Farm. He has not had a recorded workout since his 1 3/4-length win in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar on Nov. 5 to remain undefeated in three career starts.

As I wrote for Xpressbet.com in mid-January, American Pharoah’s first workout at 3 in 2015 came on Feb. 2, three furlongs in :36.20 at Santa Anita. American Pharoah went on to sweep the Triple Crown.

To me, if Corniche had his first recorded workout this year by Feb. 2, he should be seen as a Kentucky Derby contender. But a Feb. 4 story written by Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman indicates Corniche’s participation in the Kentucky Derby does appear dubious at this point, though it also should be pointed out that the 1 1/4-mile classic has not been ruled out.

“The [Kentucky] Derby is not the be-all and end-all” for owners Peter Fluor and K.C. Weiner of Speedway Stables, said racing manager Marette Farrell. “He’s training away. The tempo of his gallops is speeding up. We’re letting the horse tell us when he’s ready. When he’s ready, we’ll start prioritizing his schedule.

“We’re not rushing him. We’re not forcing him to make the Derby. We’re not ruling out the Derby. We’re aiming for a major 3-year-old campaign.”

But considering where we are on the calendar and Corniche does not have a recorded workout at this writing, I felt it best to remove him from my Top 10 this week.

It was a difficult decision as to whether to keep Epicenter, Pappacap or Slow Down Andy on the Top 10 this week. Slow Down Andy got the call to be ranked No. 10 because, after all, when victorious in the Grade II Los Alamitos, he did beat new No. 1 Messier.

BUBBLING UNDER THE TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

Barber Road
Belgrade
Call Me Midnight
Chasing Time
Comandperformance
Corniche
Doppelganger
Ethereal Road
Epicenter
Favorite Outlaw
Forbidden Kingdom
Giant Game
God of Love
Golden Glider
Gunite
High Oak
In Due Time
Mackinnon
Major General
Make It Big
Mo Donegal
Morello
Nitrous Channel
Pappacap
Pinehurst
Pioneer of Medina
Rockefeller
Tiz the Bomb
Volcanic
Zandon

SAM F. DAVIS SELECTIONS

As noted earlier, the Nov. 27 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes has produced two Grade III winners this year in White Abarrio and Call Me Midnight.

Classic Causeway and Howling Time will try to make it three Grade III winners emanating from the Kentucky Jockey Club when they compete in Tampa Bay Downs’ Sam F. Davis Stakes this Saturday.

The 1 1/16-mile Davis has attracted an overflow field of 13, including one also eligible.

When trainer Brian Lynch unveiled Classic Causeway at Saratoga last summer, the Kentucky-bred Giant’s Causeway colt won a seven-furlong maiden race by 6 1/2 lengths. He recorded a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Classic Causeway then finished third (73 Beyer) as the 9-5 favorite to Rattle N Roll and Double Thunder in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity last October. After that, Classic Causeway ran second (84 Beyer) as the 7-5 favorite to Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Howling Time won Churchill’s Street Sense Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths last Oct. 31 after earning his maiden diploma at that Louisville track on Sept. 25. The Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt, trained by Dale Romans, has not raced since finishing fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

God of Love has the look of a contender in Saturday’s Davis. Trained by Mark Casse, the Canadian-bred Cupid colt will be racing on dirt for the first time. He won a pair of stakes races at Woodbine last year, the Cup and Saucer on the grass and Grade III Grey on synthetic.

Casse also has Golden Glider and Volcanic entered in the Davis.

Golden Glider is two for two and makes his stakes debut. The Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on synthetic at Woodbine last Nov. 27, then defeated allowance/optional claiming company on dirt Jan. 7 at Tampa Bay.

Enough was thought of Volcanic to run him in Saratoga’s Grade I Hopeful Stakes last summer as a maiden. He wound up seventh in the Hopeful, then went on the shelf. The Kentucky-bred Violence colt returned to win a maiden race Jan. 8 at Gulfstream when racing with blinkers for the first time.

Another prominent Davis entrant is the undefeated Make It Big, who has the same trainer as White Abarrio. Make It Big is three for three. After a couple of victories at Gulfstream last year, the Florida-bred Neolithic colt was sent to Oklahoma and won Remington Park’s Springboard Mile on Dec. 17.

Shipsational is interesting to me in the Davis. He’s three for four. The Midshipman colt is seeking his third straight stakes win after winning New York-bred stakes races at Belmont Park last Sept. 26 and Oct. 30.

Trademark goes into the Davis off back-to-back wins at the Churchill fall meet. He has been training at Payson Park in Florida for Vicki Oliver.

My selections for the Sam F. Davis are below:

1. Classic Causeway
2. God of Love
3. Make It Big
4. Howling Time

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING

Many horseplayers find it fun to place a future wager (or wagers) on the Kentucky Derby. It’s especially fun if you do happen to get some money down on the winner at a nice price.

Horseplayers can get involved this week in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW). In addition to win wagering, exacta betting is offered. The pool opens Friday at noon ET and continues until Sunday, Feb. 13, at 6 p.m. ET.

There are 23 individual horses, plus an “all others” option.

The “all others” option has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Adding to the appeal of this option is it includes any horse currently trained by Bob Baffert.

There are no Baffert-trained horses among the 23 individual horses because he has been banned by Churchill Downs from entering a horse in the Kentucky Derby in 2022 and 2023. This stems from Baffert-trained Medina Spirit testing positive for the therapeutic medication betamethasone after he had finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

If you bet “all others” in KDFW Pool 3, you will get talented Baffert trainees Messier, Newgrange and Corniche, among others. As it stands right now, any of the Baffert-trained 3-year-olds would need to be transferred to another trainer in order to earn eligibility points in upcoming races toward a berth in the coveted Kentucky Derby.

Smile Happy and White Abarrio are the 8-1 co-favorites among the 23 individual horses on the morning line for KDFW Pool 2. But betting on either of them at such a short price is not a good move, in my view. That’s because you probably could get something around that price, or maybe even a much higher price, on race day. And keep in mind that when you place a future wager, there is no refund, whereas on race day you get a refund if your horses scratches.

I would consider betting Emmanuel or Early Voting in KDFW Pool 3, but not at anything in the neighborhood of their morning-line prices. Emmanuel is 10-1. Early Voting is 12-1.

Considering how hard it is this far out from the race to just get a horse into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, rather than bet on a horse at a relatively short price, it’s typically a good idea to try to take a swing for the fences with a horse offering big odds.

Also, if you are thinking of diving into KDFW Pool 3, before you do, you might want to wait and see what happens in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis. How that race turns out figures to affect the price on a number of horses.

One Davis runner to especially keep an eye on, I think, is Classic Causeway, who I have ranked No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. He is listed at a juicy 50-1 on the morning line for KDFW Pool 3. If Classic Causeway does win the Davis, no doubt his price will end up being much shorter than 50-1. But he still might be a decent enough of a price (30-1? 20-1?) to put a few bucks on him. Of course, if Classic Causeway does not win the Davis, betting him in KDFW Pool 3 really does not make much sense regardless of his price.

Commandperformance likewise is listed at 50-1 on the morning line. Yes, he’s still a maiden, but he has had recorded workouts in Florida at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 2 and Feb. 8.

Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Commandperformance was good enough to finish second in the Grade I Champagne Stakes and fourth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Taking a flier on him at around 50-1 in KDFW Pool 3 is food for thought.

Simplification is 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 3 morning line. White Abarrio is 8-1. That’s quite a difference in odds. Of the two, I would much rather bet Simplification at the considerably better price.

I think another 30-1 longshot on the morning line definitely worth considering is Rattle N Roll. Two others at 30-1 who also have appeal to me are Major General and Zandon.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 3 of the 2022 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Barber Road (20-1)
2. Call Me Midnight (20-1)
3. Chasing Time (15-1)
4. Classic Causeway (50-1)
5. Commandperformance (50-1)
6. Early Voting (12-1)
7. Emmanuel (10-1)
8. Epicenter (15-1)
9. Forbidden Kingdom (10-1)
10. God of Love (50-1)
11. Happy Boy Rocket (50-1)
12. Howling Time (50-1)
13. In Due Time (30-1)
14. Major General (30-1)
15. Make It Big (50-1)
16. Mo Donegal (30-1)
17. Pappacap (15-1)
18. Rattle N Roll (30-1)
19. Simplification (30-1)
20. Slow Down Andy (20-1)
21. Smile Happy (8-1)
22. White Abarrio (8-1)
23. Zandon (30-1)
24. “All Others” (5-2)

ECLIPSE AWARD PREDICTIONS

Last week for Xpressbet.com, I listed my predictions for the 2021 Eclipse Awards. The winners will be announced during the 51st annual Eclipse Awards program Thursday, Feb. 10, at Santa Anita. This will be the first time since 2012 that the Eclipse Awards program is being held in California. The winners will be announced live on TVG and various other outlets beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

The first year that I made Eclipse Award predictions for Xpressbet.com was for racing that was conducted in 2011. My predictions have proved to be correct 91.4% of the time:

2011: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2012: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2013: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2014: 17 correct, 0 wrong
2015: 14 correct, 3 wrong
2016: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2017: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2018: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2019: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2020: 15 correct, 2 wrong

Total: 156 correct, 14 wrong

Remember, these are my predictions, not who I think should win or who I voted for.

And now, here again, are my predictions for the 2021 Eclipse Awards:

2-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists (alphabetically): Corniche, Jack Christopher, Modern Games
Predicted Winner: Corniche

2-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Echo Zulu, Juju’s Map, Pizza Bianca
Predicted Winner: Echo Zulu

3-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists: Essential Quality, Life Is Good, Medina Spirit
Predicted Winner: Essential Quality

3-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Clairiere, Malathaat, Santa Barbara
Predicted Winner: Malathaat

OLDER DIRT MALE

Finalists: Knicks Go, Maxfield, Mystic Guide
Predicted Winner: Knicks Go

OLDER DIRT FEMALE

Finalists: Letruska, Marche Lorraine, Shedaresthedevil
Predicted Winner: Letruska

MALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Aloha West, Flightline, Jackie’s Warrior
Predicted Winner: Jackie’s Warrior

FEMALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Bella Sofia, Ce Ce, Gamine
Predicted Winner: Ce Ce

MALE TURF

Finalists: Domestic Spending, Space Blues, Yibir
Predicted Winner: Yibir

FEMALE TURF

Finalists: Loves Only You, Santa Barbara, War Like Goddess
Predicted Winner: War Like Goddess

STEEPLECHASE

Finalists: Baltimore Bucko, Snap Decision, The Mean Queen
Predicted Winner: The Mean Queen

TRAINER

Finalists: Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown, Brad Cox
Predicted Winner: Brad Cox

JOCKEY

Finalists: Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario
Predicted Winner: Joel Rosario

APPRENTICE JOCKEY

Finalists: John Hiraldo, Charlie Marquez, Jessica Pyfer
Predicted Winner: Jessica Pyfer

OWNER

Finalists: Godolphin, Juddmonte Farms, Klaravich Stables
Predicted Winner: Godolphin

BREEDER

Finalists: Calumet Farm, Godolphin, Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
Predicted Winner: Godolphin

HORSE OF THE YEAR

Finalists: Not announced
Predicted Winner: Knicks Go

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Picks: Bayakoa S. and Razorback H. both on February 12
By J.N. Campbell


Oaklawn Park Picks - Saturday, February 12, 2022

Race 1: 10-5-4-9
Race 2: 6-5-3-8
Race 3: 4-2-5-8
Race 4: 13-4-2-12
Race 5: 8-1-9-5
Race 6: 6-3-1-8
Race 7: 10-4-2-5
Race 8: 2-7-1-6 (Leg C: Cross Country Wager)
Race 9: 10-2-5-11
Race 10: 9-2-5-3 (Leg E: Cross Country Wager)
Race 11: 2-7-4-11
**Most Likely Winner: Miss Bigly #2 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Pharoah's Heart #10 (Race 9)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Miss Bigly #2, 9/2):

Agave Racing Stable owns this daughter of Gemologist, and I think it is time to get behind her—she exudes class. Well-travelled, she has contested leads at Churchill, Santa Anita, Del Mar, and most recently, at Oaklawn. The last time we saw her was in the slop back on 8 Jan. in the Pippin S. $150k. She faced a tough group that day, including her rival that is back to face her again in the G3 Bayakoa S.—Brad Cox’s Coach #7. Phil D’Amato, a conditioner based in SoCal, is making a jockey switch, and going with Ramon Vazquez over Martin Garcia. I think that is a solid move, and I like the aggressive tactics of this rider. With 3 works under her belt, she should be able to win the day! If we could somehow get 9/2, I actually believe that qualifies as an overlay. It’s time …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 9: Pharoah’s Heart #10, 5/1):

Jockey Joel Rosario caught a flight to SoCal Thursday, and graciously accepted the Eclipse Award for the Best Jockey in the Land. He is right back at Oaklawn, and gets the call aboard this runner that used to be in Mark Glatt’s keep. There is much to like about this 5-yr-old mare, and it starts with her Triple Crown-winning sire. Even though we have not seen her since 2021, I think Asmussen has a nice winner on his hands. Little Red Feather and Glatt broke up, and it is going to be to the benefit of North America’s All-Time Winningest Trainer. This is a perfect spot for her to return to the racetrack, and the choice of Rosario is a great one.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #10 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Razorback H. (G3), $600k, 4+):

One of the highlights of the Oaklawn Meet, and there are many to choose from, is this race, the Razorback Handicap. Last year, the contest saw Mystic Guide romp home, and we all know that he went on to score in the Dubai World Cup. This time around, we have a strong field of 9, with most of the entries coming from stakes competition that has already taken place in Hot Springs. A local favorite that should take quite a bit of money is Robertino Diodoro’s Lone Rock #3. Since coming over from Bill Mott and Paradise Farms, this one has done nothing but win in 7/9. As the favorite in the inaugural running of the Tinsel S. 200k, he was strong in the end with regular rider Ramon Vazquez at the controls. Don’t get me wrong, this is an impressive deep router, but I am frankly interested in others. I think the same could be said for Steve Asmussen’s charge, the reigning Arkansas Derby Champion—Super Stock #2. Back on 11 Dec., the colt by Dialed In just missed in the Poinsettia S. $150k. He was well-bet that day, and with Ricardo Santana riding once again, will be tough to best. This race is so deep … you could back Todd Pletcher’s layoff runner from last year, Promise Keeper #5 … or Brad Cox’s Cigar Mile alum Plainsman #8 … or Danny Caldwell’s prize claim Rated R Superstar #4 … or horse-for-the-course runners like Thomas Shelby #6 and Last Samurai #7. These are some formidable routers, but instead, I am going to the extreme outside, and choose Steve Asmussen’s other half of his uncoupled entry—Silver Prospector #9. The Orrs own this sturdy horse (who once won the SW Stakes) by Declaration of War, and last year he came in 2nd to Mystic Guide in this race. Making his 1st of his new campaign in the 5th Season $150k, he did not end up coming off-the-bench with much success … no matter. Horses need one, and Asmussen’s is no different. If you go back and look at that “BT” it was a tough go for this 5-yr-old, as he had to travel wide on both turns. With a much better trip this time around, new jockey Luis Contreras will be visiting the Larry Snyder Winner’s Circle. I like the price on the M/L … 15/1! Time to go prospecting … here is the wager …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta, 9 w 2/5 w 2/3/6 w 3/5/6

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Aqueduct Picks: Gander S. featured on February 12
By J.N. Campbell


Aqueduct Picks - Saturday, February 12, 2022

Race 1: 6-4-5-2
Race 2: 5-1/1A-6-2
Race 3: 2-5-1-3
Race 4: 4-3-1/1A-6
Race 5: 9-2-1-5
Race 6: 3-6-8-4
Race 7: 3-7-6-2
Race 8: 5-7-3-2 (Leg B: Cross Country Wager)
Race 9: 6-3-10-7
**Most Likely Winner: Seahorse D'Oro #2 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Market Alert #3 (Race 7)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Seahorse d’Oro #2, 7/2):

Trainer Ray Handal is having a strong Meet so far, and that should continue in this race … a Clm25kn2L. I like this filly by Bodemeister because this will be her 2nd time out. Handal does well in spots like these, even though it does not happen all that often. Young Jalon Samuel gets a shot at the winner’s circle, and he can up his game even more, by riding this one to victory. Last time, the response was not too impressive down the lane, but that is going to be a different story today.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Market Alert #3, 15/1):

Wellspring Stables has a gelding that is trying to make the switch from state bred to open company. A 4-yr-old by D’ Funnybone that is trained by Jim Ryerson, his last on the Aqueduct oval was back on 8 Jan. In that contest, he ended up having a pretty rough trip. Jorge Vargas comes back into the fold as his rider this time, and I think he will be a significant overlay … maybe 20/1 … Making this kind of class move is never easy, but Ryerson has the conditioning ability to surprise. I wouldn’t write this entry off, since he does have a win at “The Big A.”

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 Mile, Gander S., $100k, 3 NY Breds):

The NY state breeding program is out in force this Saturday, and as part of the Cross Country Pick 5, it should be a good one. Out of these 7 runners that are drawn-in for this race, I am interested in Bill Mott’s Bold Journey #7. Is this one a pretender, or do you think he is the real deal? What we do know is that when you are 6/5 on the M/L … there are expectations. Last time this colt by Hard Spun hit the track, he won convincingly (all on the frontend), and it was by 6+ lengths. The posted figure was pretty sharp too. I am going to play against him, and try to take advantage of this one being over bet. Kendrick Carmouche is a solid rider, but that doesn’t mean he is assured victory. Since it is a short field, and not terribly expansive, I much prefer the price of Schosberg’s Bossmakinbossmoves #2, Atras’ Doin’ittherightway #3, and finally, Maker’s Barese #5. With a mix of different odds, they are sure to add value. I want to key all 3 of them, putting them on top of Mott’s young ace. The pressure might be too great for this colt from a class standpoint. It looks to be a great play from my perspective.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 2/3/5 w 7

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Tampa Bay Downs Selections for February 12, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Feb 11th, 2022 4:38pm PST

Tampa Bay Downs Selections for February 12, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

The racecard on Saturday has stakes racing with 12 scheduled on the docket. It isn’t a huge stakes card, but the $600,000 Razorback Handicap (Gr. 3) is a pretty big deal at Oaklawn Park. Oaklawn has two races in Arkansas, with the running of the $250,000 Bayakoa Stakes (Gr. 3) and Razorback.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

Elsewhere, it’s a big day for Tampa Bay Downs. Tampa Bay has four stakes races, including the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. 3). TheSportsGeek is going to Tampa Bay to open the day on the racetrack. Tampa Bay Downs has a total of $762,000 in prize money this afternoon on their big stakes day.

Head below for our best Tampa Bay Downs picks for February 12, 2022. For more horse racing picks on Saturday, check out our horse racing page.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 7 – Pelican Stakes
(1) R Mercedes Boy
+1500 (15/1)
(2) King Guillermo
+600 (6/1)
(3) Baby Yoda
+120 (6/5)
(4) Bank On Shea
+350 (7/2)
(5) Pudding
+400 (4/1)
(6) Cajun Casanova
+800 (8/1)
(7) Boca Boy
+1200 (12/1)

Post Time: 3:18 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$100,000

The $100,000 Pelican Stakes covers 6 furlongs on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. There are some familiar faces in this race, with King Guillermo and Baby Yoda notable participants in the Pelican Stakes.

Former Major Leaguer, Victor Martinez, thought he had a horse in the Kentucky Derby before King Guillermo came down with a fever before the race two years ago. King Guillermo was scratched after his improbable run to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

He’s still looking for a win since capturing the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. 2) in 2020. King Guillermo has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 4th, 12th since then.

In his most recent attempt, King Guillermo finished 12th in the $200,000 Fort Lauderdale Stakes (Gr. 2) on December 18. King Guillermo is down in class and might surprise in this one.

Baby Yoda is 3 for 7 and coming off a bold performance in the $300,000 Malibu Stakes (Gr. 1) on December 26. He’s been running up in class against tough company and doing it well.

If Baby Yoda takes his most recent form to this race, expect him to be the top contender in the Pelican.
The Bet
(3) BABY YODA
+120
Place Bet Now!
Race 9
(1) Boca
+2000 (20/1)
(2) Joyous Times
+800 (8/1)
(3) Giggle Factory
+500 (5/1)
(4) Independence Law
+1500 (15/1)
(5) Jean V’s Legacy
+600 (6/1)
(6) C’est Mardi
+800 (8/1)
(7) Adriatic Rose
+3000 (30/1)
(8) Editor at Large
+180 (9/5)
(9) Zerenia
+1500 (15/1)
(10) Gladys
+500 (5/1)
(11) Speed Salsa
+3000 (30/1)
(12) Hoity Toity
+1200 (12/1)
(13) Met in Miami
+800 (8/1)
(14) Applecross
+350 (7/2)

Post Time: 4:23 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$30,000

Race 9 is a $30,000 event covering 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Gladys and Editor at Large should have a big run in this one.

Gladys should enjoy is a one-time winner through eight attempts, with a winning performance in her second attempt on October 25, 2020.

She beat Beyond Heavenly by 3 lengths for a $46,000 purse. The filly hasn’t been in the same form since then, but should appreciate a $30,000 assignment.

In her most recent outing, Gladys finished 6th on January 29 in a $61,000 event. Down to a $30,000 race, Gladys can’t be ignored.

Editor At Large has finished 1st, 3rd, 7th, 6th, 2nd in four races. She was a winner on debut September 7, 2022 at Saratoga in a $72,000 event.

In her most recent outing, four races later, Editor At Large placed 2nd behind Grand Ave Girl by 1 ½ lengths in a $61,000 event. She looks better than the rest and should have the best chance.
The Bet
(8) EDITOR AT LARGE
+180
Place Bet Now!
Race 10 – Sam F. Davis Stakes
(1) Mr Rum Runner
+2000 (20/1)
(2) Unpredictable Bay
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Classic Causeway
+300 (3/1)
(4) Golden Glider
+1200 (12/1)
(5) God of Love
+1000 (10/1)
(6) Trademark
+1500 (15/1)
(7) Make It Big
+450 (9/2)
(8) Shipsational
+600 (6/1)
(9) Howling Time
+500 (5/1)
(10) Volcanic
+1200 (12/1)
(11) Strike Hard
+600 (6/1)
(12) Kitten Mischief
+1200 (12/1)
(13) Little Vic
+1500 (15/1)

Post Time: 4:54 p.m. EST
Distance:1 1/16 Miles
Purse:$250,000

The $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. 3) covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Golden Glider and Classic Causeway have to be worth considering in the Sam F. Davis.

Golden Glider is a two-time winner in two assignments on November 27 and January 7. Mark Casse had a winner with Golden Glider for a 1 length win in a $126,800 event as a rookie.

The colt followed up with a 1 ¾ length win down in class at $32,500. This leads to a hat-trick opportunity in his toughest race yet.

Golden Glider was a $395,000 purchase at auction in 2019 and so far so good. He has also been performing well in workouts. Golden Glider was timed at 47.40 and 47.80 seconds at 4 furlongs and 1:00.00 at 5 furlongs.

Classic Causeway has finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd and has graded experience. In his first race, Classic Causeway finished 6 ½ lengths ahead of Trafalgar for a $100,000 purse, and then immediately went to a graded class.

The No. 3 most recently placed 2nd behind Smile Happy by 3 ¼ lengths in the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Gr. 2) after showing 3rd on October 9 at Keeneland in the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (Gr. 1).

Classic Causeway should have this one against weaker competition in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs.
The Bet
(3) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
+300

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Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 12, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

Golden Gate Fields, Mahoning Valley Race Course, and Tampa Bay Downs bring us plenty of horserace for the money on Saturday, with Golden Gate and Tampa Bay hosting Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Since we’ve got a lot to cover, let’s not waste any time—but do remember to take a look at the full race-cards for all three tracks at one of our recommended horseracing wagering sites.

Good luck!
Saturday Picks for Golden Gate Fields

Let’s start on the all-weather track with race five, a 1-1/8 miles allowance race for four-year-olds and upward. I’m betting my two dollars on the third-favorite (at 3/1) Table for Ten, ridden by veteran jockey Pedro M. Terrero.

This six-year-old gelding finished in the money 13 of his 17 career starts, winning four. Those stats already give him a serious edge on the rest of this seven-horse field—but it gets even better: He’s won three of his last five races, placing second in the other two.

A five-decade veteran of the horse racing business, Bill McLean trains Table for Ten owners Dino Forristall, Bill McLean, Herb Robinson, and Marilyn Taylor.

Race seven is a one-mile allowance optional claiming race on the all-weather track for four-year-olds and upward. I’m backing the 3/1 second-favorite, Tom’s Surprise, with Armando Ayuso in the irons.

This five-year-old gelding moneyed 12 of his 18 career starts, winning seven of them, including his most recent allowance race here at Golden Gate.

Tom’s Surprise has won three of his last five races, and he notably finished second in the Bertrando Stakes (Black Type) last June at Los Alamitos. He’ll do.

Jack Steiner trains Tom’s Surprise for Remmah Racing, Inc.

Race eight is the El Camino Real Derby (Listed), a $100,000 1-1/8 mile stakes race on the all-weather track for three-year-olds. The race is one of the prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and awards points (10-4-2-1) to the top four finishers. The winner of this race is also given a gate at the 2022 Preakness Stakes provided he/she is already nominated to the Triple Crown.

This eleven-horse field has plenty to offer the wagering race-fan, but my money is on the 8/5 favorite, Mackinnon, piloted by veteran jockey Abel Cedillo.

Compared to his competitors in this eleven-horse field, this colt seems almost overpowered for this race. For the record, Mackinnon moneyed five of his seven career starts, winning three.
He finished first in both the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes (Listed) and the Zuma Beach Stakes (Listed) last fall, and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) at Del Mar in November, a neck behind the second-place Tiz the Bomb.

He also picked up his single Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard point with a fourth-place finish in the Sham Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita last month.

Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup veteran Doug F. O’Neill trains Mackinnon for owners ERJ Racing, LLC, Madaket Stables LLC, and Dave Kenney.
Saturday’s Picks for Mahoning Valley Race Course

We’ll start on the dirt track with race two, a six-furlong claiming race for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. I like the third-favored (at 7/2) Ultra Rays, with Sonny Leon in the irons.

This five-year-old mare finished in the money eight of her 19 career starts, winning five, which actually gives her a bit of a statistical edge on the favorite.

Alejandro Murillo Rodriguez trains Ultra Rays for Premier Stables Unlimited.

Race six is a six-furlong claiming race on the dirt track for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward that have never won three races. I like the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Ohio Cause, piloted by David J. Haldar.

This four-year-old gelding moneyed six of his 15 career starts, winning two, including his most recent—which makes him the statistical star in this particular eight-horse field.

Carlos Inirio trains Ohio Cause for owner Raldirys L. Pujols.

Race eight is a six-furlong allowance race for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races. My money’s on the front-half of the 1/1A coupled entry, Touchdown Jesus, with Luis Raul Rivera aboard.

This four-year-old gelding finished seven of his 12 career starts in the money, winning one.
Often, a coupled entry makes increasing your bankroll seem easier, but in this case, only Touchdown Jesus is worth the wager—don’t expect the back half of this one (Grand Deal) to improve your bankroll in any way.

With more than four decades in the horse racing business, T. R. Haehn trains both Touchdown Jesus and Grand Deal for owner Rey Juarez-Mendoza.
My Saturday Picks for Tampa Bay Downs

Let’s begin on the dirt track with race six, The Minaret Stakes—a $50,000 purse, six-furlong race for fillies and mares four years old and upward. I’m backing the 7/2 second-favorite here—Night Cap, piloted by Jesus Lopez Castanon.

This four-year-old filly moneyed six of her eight career starts, winning five.
Sure, the M/L favorite—Quinoa Tifah—won the Our Dear Peggy Stakes (Black Type) back in 2020—so what? My money’s on the horse that has won more than half her races: Night Cap.

Longtime horse racing veteran Robert A. Raymond trains Night Cap for owner Joseph Gentile.

Race seven is the Pelican Stakes, a $100,000 purse, six-furlong race on the dirt track for four-year-olds and upward. I have to agree with the morning-line here: Bet on the 6/5 favorite, Baby Yoda, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz.

This four-year-old gelding moneyed six of his seven career starts, winning three. Notably, he finished third in the Vosburgh Stakes (Grade II) at Belmont Park in October, and second in the Malibu Stakes (Grade I) at Santa Anita in December.

Hall of Famer William I. Mott trains Baby Yoda for owners Pantofel Stable, LLC, Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, and Jerold L. Zaro.

Incidentally, I wouldn’t expect a surprise happy ending in the Pelican Stakes for King Guillermo. He hasn’t won or even finished a race in the money since his Road to the Kentucky Derby days back in 2020.

For more info on King Guillermo, check out my 2020 overview of him and his connections.

Race eight is the Suncoast Stakes, a $150,000 purse, one mile and 40 yards race for three-year-old fillies. The Suncoast is a prep race for the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and awards leaderboard points (10-4-2-1) to the top four finishers.

This is the no-brainer pick of the day: Bet the 3/5 favorite, Nest, piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

No other entry in this eight-horse field comes close to matching this filly’s record: Three money finishes in three career starts, two of them wins, including the Demoiselle Stakes (Grade II) at Aqueduct in December, where she picked up her first ten leaderboard points for the Kentucky Oaks.

Hall of Famer Todd A. Pletcher trains Nest for owners Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, and Michael House.

Race ten is the Sam F. Davis Stake (Grade III), a $250,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles run on the dirt track for three-year-olds. The race is one of the prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and awards points (10-4-2-1) to the top four finishers.

While I’m not as fascinated as the morning-line is with the favorite’s two money finishes and a maiden win record, but I’m not unimpressed, either. So I’m betting on the 3/1 favorite, Classic Causeway, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons.

After all, those two money finishes were a third in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I) and a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II).
Those two races put Classic Causeway at #17 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with six points. A win here could bump his to the top of the board.

Regularly ranked among the top 100 trainers in earnings since 2008, Brian A. Lynch trains Classic Causeway for owners Kentucky West Racing LLC and Clarke M. Cooper.

And don’t forget that it’s never too early to think about the Kentucky Derby.

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Daily Harness Tips – February 12th 2022

Home - News - Harness News - Daily Harness Tips – February 12th 2022

Dan Mielicki

Get the RSN Race-caller Dan Mielicki best bets and Harness Racing Tips for Melton on Saturday the 12th of February.
Dan Mielicki
Dan Mielicki

Tabcorp Park Melton, 12th February 2022

Race 1 Selections: 9,2,6,1,11
Race 2 Selections: 6,3,7,5,1
Race 3 Selections: 1,2,5,6,3
Race 4 Selections: 5,6,4,1,3
Race 5 Selections: 11,1,8,6,4
Race 6 Selections: 6,8,7,5,2
Race 7 Selections: 3,6,8,2,7
Race 8 Selections: 6,10,4,8,7
Race 9 Selections: 5,6,4,3,1
Best Bets

Race 7 – 3. Always Ready

Race 3 – 1. Villacci
Value

Race 2 – 6. Imperial Whiz
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 1,6,8,11
Quaddie 2: 6,8
Quaddie 3: 3,6,8
Quaddie 4: 4,6,10

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Interstate Racing Tips – February 12th

Home - Featured - Interstate Racing Tips – February 12th

RSN927

RSN Form Analyst Kevin Casey covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at the Randwick featuring the Group 1 Apollo Stakes on Saturday the 12th of February.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Track Conditions
Kevin Casey Randwick Tips

Randwick, 12th February 2022

Race 1 Selections: 2,6,10,7
Race 2 Selections: 6,3,2,15
Race 3 Selections: 6,7,2,1
Race 4 Selections: 1,2,6,5
Race 5 Selections: 2,4,1,3
Race 6 Selections: 5,1,3,2
Race 7 Selections: 1,8,9,12
Race 8 Selections: 1,9,11,10
Race 9 Selections: 1,5,3,4
Race 10 Selections: 2,10,1,8
Best Bet

Race 6 – 5. Embracer
Value

Race 9 – 1. Vangelic
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 1,8
Quaddie 2: 1,9
Quaddie 3: 1,3,4,5
Quaddie 4: 1,2,10

SKY Race caller Josh Fleming covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at the Doomben on Saturday the 12th of February.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Track Conditions
Josh Fleming Doomben Tips

Doomben, 12th February 2022

Race 1 Selections: 7,5,2,8
Race 2 Selections: 3,4,8,2
Race 3 Selections: 3,4,1,5
Race 4 Selections: 5,10,7,8
Race 5 Selections: 11,3,6,10
Race 6 Selections: 13,2,4,5
Race 7 Selections: 9,4,3,1
Race 8 Selections: 7,1,5,3
Race 9 Selections: 14,7,16,1