Saturday 2/12/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:54 AM

Declan Schuster's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Saturday, February 12, 2022

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Saturday, February 12, 2022)

Race 1: #8 Winwin Thirtythree, #2 Booming Well, #5 Mission Smart, #9 Zacian
Race 2: #9 Baebae Tsoi, #4 Marvel Dragon, #6 Sight Hero, #8 Smart Leader
Race 3: #2 Golden Empire, #12 Star Of Wuyi, #4 Miracle Victory, #8 Bella Baby
Race 4: #13 Dragon Baby, #1 En Pointe, #5 Star Contact, #6 Celestial Warrior
Race 5: #5 Happy Good Guys, #13 Glenealy Generals, #7 Ka Ying Lucky, #3 Kowloon East Star
Race 6: #5 Steel Win, #4 Boom Stitch, #8 Sunny Delight, #13 Run Run Good
Race 7: #10 Double Six Pop, #4 Rock Ya Heart, #2 Team Spirit, #6 Excellent Daddy
Race 8: #7 Elite Patch, #1 Sight Spirit, #2 Ultra Express, #10 Romantic Combo
Race 9: #7 Super Winner, #4 Golden Link, #2 Seattle Choice, #1 Circuit Stellar
Race 10: #6 E Star, #9 Navas Two, #1 My Sugar, #2 The Rock

Race 1: Azalea Handicap

#8 Winwin Thirtythree is competitive in his spot. He’s racing well at present and as a two-time winner in this grade he rates as the one to beat. #2 Booming Well gets down to Class 5. Strong booking with Zac Purton hopping up for the first time. He can improve sharply. #5 Mission Smart has more ability than what his record lets on. Expect improvement second-up from the break – just like last season. #9 Zacian has gone close several times. His time will come – it’s just a matter of when for this quirky customer.

Race 2: Daisy Handicap (1st Section)

#9 Baebae Tsoi is coming to hand. His form has slipped a bit since finishing third on debut, but even still, it wouldn’t surprise to see him bounce back to that level here. The wide gate harms his chances, but Harry Bentley is currently riding in sublime form. #4 Marvel Dragon is as honest as they come. He rarely runs a bad race and is expected to improve once more off the back of a fast-closing fourth-placed effort last start. #6 Sight Hero is consistent in his spot. Don’t discount. #8 Smart Leader looks better than his record suggests. Next best.

Race 3: Daisy Handicap (2nd Section)

#2 Golden Empire couldn’t have been more impressive last start. He’s capable of going back-to-back here for the in-form Zac Purton – who has nine wins from the last two meetings. #12 Star Of Wuyi has shown potential at times. He gets his chance with no weight on his back. #4 Miracle Victory was a top winner last time out – his first in Hong Kong. He commands respect with Jerry Chau hopping up. #8 Bella Baby only needs to offset the awkward gate. Don’t discount.

Race 4: Daffodil Handicap

#13 Dragon Baby is competitive in his spot. He gets a handy pull in the weights and although he hasn’t won in a while – he has got down to a more than competitive mark. #1 En Pointe pieced it all together last time out like a very, very nice horse. Still, he must do it again and the big weight against a number of solid performers is concerning. #5 Star Contact turned in a slashing third on debut. Expect further improvement – he’s a nice horse. #6 Celestial Warrior can finish fast. He’s on the steady improve.

Race 5: Lily Handicap

#5 Happy Good Guys is down to a dangerous rating. He’s won off higher and has shown plenty of prowess at times over five furlongs. Expect a big run and he should be a decent price too. #13 Glenealy Generals does his best racing over this course and distance. He can bounce back from a lacklustre effort last time out. #7 Ka Ying Lucky steps out on debut. He scored in a recent trial at the Valley which sets him up very well for his debut. #3 Kowloon East Star is chasing back-to-back wins. Don’t discount, even with more weight. Race 6: Cineraria Handicap #5 Steel Win has a bit of class on the dirt as a two-time winner on the surface. He draws favourably here and a return to winning ways would not surprise. #4 Boom Stitch has potential and has gone close a few times. He’s on the ever-improve and only needs to offset the sticky gate. #8 Sunny Delight is closing in on a first win. He’s well bred for the dirt. #13 Run Run Good rarely runs a bad race. He’s looking to snap a run of four placings – three of which have seen him finish runner-up. Next best.

Race 7: Peony Handicap

#10 Double Six Pop pulled hard on debut but did show plenty of early toe. He’s a talent on the rise and sharp improvement is expected here – especially with the light weight and Karis Teetan assigned. #4 Rock Ya Heart is a talent in his spot. He can be a major player once again in this grade from the gate. #2 Team Spirit is as honest as they come. Expect he tries to make all in front – stepping away from gate one is favourable. #6 Excellent Daddy rarely runs a bad race. He’s competitive in this grade. Next best.

Race 8: Orchid Handicap

#7 Elite Patch is bred for the dirt and rightly so, he absolutely loves it – especially as a three-time winner on the surface. He gets the conditions to suit here and has race-fitness on his side. #1 Sight Spirit makes the switch for dirt riches. He’s by Toronado so he should handle it and this looks like suitable lead-in contest ahead of the Hong Kong Classic Cup at the end of this month. #2 Ultra Express is a classy operator. Expect another strong showing. #10 Romantic Combo may struggle from the wide gate. Zac Purton’s services help, however.

Race 9: Peach Blossom Handicap

#7 Super Winner can roll forward and dictate terms here. He’s a smart performer on his day and with the right run – out in the lead – he could well pinch this contest, which does appear to be lacking pace. #4 Golden Link is doing nothing wrong. He’s racing well and gets a handy claim from Alfred Chan. #2 Seattle Choice is better than his record suggests. He’s building back to a level of form that deserves respect. #1 Circuit Stellar is nothing short of consistent. Strong booking of Zac Purton warrants consideration.

Race 10: Rose Handicap

#6 E Star draws favourably here and should benefit from the run of the race. This is a tricky contest but he appeals with race-fitness now on his side, especially as a six-time winner in Hong Kong. #9 Navas Two is showing no signs of slowing. He’s on a Hong Kong Derby trail and although he is yet to race over the mile, it does look as though it will suit him. #1 My Sugar has been sparingly raced due to leg issues. Still, he’s in good order and looks a though he’s taken benefit from a break between runs. #2 The Rock will look the winner at some stage.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:55 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Anita for February 12, 2022

By: Aaron Halterman
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It’s another huge weekend of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the late sequence on the card! We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s see if we can get this home today.

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park February 12, 2022

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight

#10 Charge It ran very well on debut, and is clearly the one to beat today. He should take this field gate to wire. #4 Enough Already is a Todd Pletcher first time starter who could have a say in things if he is cranked up and ready for his debut.

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming
freestar

#1 En Wye Cee takes a big class drop for this race after taking on tough stakes company in New York in his last three starts. #2 Tiberius Mercurius is back on the turf for this race after an impressive allowance victory at Turfway Park last time out.

Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming

#6 Unbridled Honor returns off of a long layoff today after running in the Preakness Stakes (G1) last time out. We will see how he comes back today. #7 Sir Ollie has run well this Gulfstream Park meet, but steps up in class a bit for this one.

Race 12: Maiden Special Weight

#3 Flatford Mill debuts in this spot for Clement, who usually has his first time turf runners ready to fire. #9 Field Marshall was decent on debut last time out, but should improve for Mott in his second start today. Most of his horses show nice improvement in their second starts.

THE TICKET
freestar

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12) 10 / 1,2,3,4 / 3,6,7,9 / 2,3,4,9,11- $40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:56 AM

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, February 12

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Winning back-to-back Betfair Hurdles may be as rare as a Downing Street apology but SOARING GLORY (Newbury, nap, 3.35) can buck that trend.

The seven-year-old ran out a hugely impressive winner of this afternoon’s feature 12 months ago and, although that smooth success was achieved off a rating a stone lower than today’s mark, there are reasons for believing the selection is capable of a repeat performance.

Firstly, Soaring Glory is much better suited to the hurly-burly of a truly-run handicap hurdle than the small field Listed and Graded hurdles he has contested of late.

His stats when competing in fields of 10 or more read 121111 as opposed to nine or less which read 23443 and those figures suggest a horse which travels strongly in his races ideally needs cover and to arrive late on the scene to deliver his best.

That wasn’t the case here on his penultimate start against only three rivals or last time out in the Christmas Hurdle when chasing home Epatante in a five-runner affair.

Neither event allowed Soaring Glory to drop his head and be smuggled into the race by regular rider Jonjo O’Neill jnr, although the selection did stick to his task manfully at Kempton when left trailing by a filly thought likely to run a bold race in the Champion Hurdle.

There is the prospect of a true gallop with the likes of Jetoile and I Like To Move It in the field and Soaring Glory could have the ideal set up for a horse who needs a pace collapse late on.

Of his rivals, Broomfield Burg is the most feared as he looks incredibly well handicapped on a mark of 134. Although it has taken a while for the penny to drop, the six-year-old looked a happier horse with the hood removed at Kempton last time as he slammed a horse which has since landed a gamble at Hereford.

Like Soaring Glory, Broomfield Burg looks the type to improve again if granted a truly-run race as he can be keener than ideal and if he does settle, he looks the type to be involved at the business end.

NEWBURY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.15 Bravemansgame

1.50 Risk And Roll

2.25 Clan Des Obeaux

3.00 Funambule Sivola

3.35 Soaring Glory (nap)

4.10 Make My Day

4.45 Filanderer

GIMCRACK

1.15 Bravemansgame

1.50 Risk And Roll

2.25 Clan Des Obeaux

3.00 Sceau Royal

3.35 Tritonic (nap)

4.10 King Ottokar

4.45 Authorised Speed

WARWICK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 Camdonian

1.35 Marie’s Rock

2.05 Brave Seasca

2.40 Fine Casting

3.15 Jacamar

3.50 Mr Harp

4.25 Samourai One

GIMCRACK

1.00 Fair Frontieres

1.35 Indefatigable

2.05 Third Time Lucki

2.40 Genuflex

3.15 Cheddleton

3.50 In Rem

4.25 Gaelic Park

UTTOXETER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.50 Corey’s Courage

1.25 Heartbreak Kid

1.58 Ulverston

2.33 Zambella

3.08 Sunset West

3.43 Eaton Miller (nb)

4.18 On The Platform

4.53 Hiway One O Three

GIMCRACK

12.50 Rio Silva

1.25 Oscars Leader

1.58 Notre Pari

2.33 Zambella

3.08 Barrowdale

3.43 Breizh Alko

4.18 Bobmahley

4.53 Flintara

Northerner – 1.25 Heartbreak Kid (nb); 3.08 Sunset West (nap).

LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.45 Melakaz

2.20 Patsy Fagan

2.55 Kodias Sangarius

3.30 True Icon

4.05 Trevolli

4.37 Notre Belle Bete

GIMCRACK

1.45 Koeman

2.20 Patsy Fagan

2.55 War In Heaven

3.30 True Icon

4.05 Trevolli

4.37 Reine Du Bal

WOLVERHAMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.15 No Diggity

5.45 Twistaline

6.15 Deciduous

6.45 Alrehb

7.15 Caroline Dale

7.45 Reset Button

8.15 Hector’s Here

GIMCRACK

5.15 Sparkle In His Eye

5.45 Twistaline

6.15 Wendell’s Lad

6.45 Fieldsman

7.15 Caroline Dale (nb)

7.45 Hooves Like Jagger

8.15 Menai Bridge

Newmarket – 5.15 No Diggity (nb); 7.15 Existent (nap).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:56 AM

Hanson: Spot Plays for the Sam F. Davis and Razorback Handicap
Vance Hanson

The two most lucrative events on the racing calendar this weekend are the $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, a Road to the Kentucky Derby series prep, and the $600,000 Razorback H. (G3) for older horses at Oaklawn Park. Both 1 1/16-mile races are intriguing and potentially wide-open betting affairs.
Sam F. Davis (G3) -- Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 (4:54 p.m. ET)

#3 Classic Causeway might very well snap his two-race losing streak as the betting favorite, but it also wouldn't come as a big shock if he proved a touch short of winning condition with bigger goals down the road. Mark Casse, who has saddled three winners from his first 10 starters at the Tampa meet, has three of the 12 entrants in the main body of the field. Of those, I like #10 Volcanic (12-1).

A son of Violence and hailing from a prolific female family, Volcanic had little luck as a juvenile. A rallying fourth as the favorite in his five-furlong debut, he narrowly lost next out at Saratoga after stumbling at the start. He encountered trouble again at the start of the Hopeful (G1), but as a 47-1 chance that day he was not expected to contend for the win.

Fast forward to Jan. 8, when we saw a new and improved version of Volcanic. Sporting blinkers in a one-mile maiden at Gulfstream, the chestnut dueled throughout with the highly-rated debuter (and favorite) Charge It and edged clear in the final strides to win by a neck. If the regally-bred Charge It ultimately proves to be as good a horse as many expect, we could look back and say that was a solid win for Volcanic, who figures to get better stretching out in distance here.
Bet Tampa Bay Downs LIVE Racing Here
Razorback H. (G3) -- Oaklawn Park Race 10 (5:56 p.m. ET)

We're going to take a flyer in the Razorback also and tab #9 Silver Prospector (15-1). The dual graded stakes winner has been rather inconsistent over the past couple of seasons, but there's reason for some optimism here and the price will be right.

First, Silver Prospector has run two of his best races over this track, winning the 2020 Southwest (G3) and finishing a distant second in the 2021 Razorback behind Mystic Guide, the eventual winner of the Dubai World Cup (G1). Second, the gray was undoubtedly in need of a race in the Jan. 15 Fifth Season S. over a mile, finishing fifth after racing wide on both turns. It was Silver Prospector's first race since May 31, when he finished third over a sloppy strip in the Steve Sexton Mile (G3) at Lone Star Park.

If he can avoid another overland trip breaking from post 9, Silver Prospector's best can put him in the mix. He also totes 115 pounds, and thus receives four to seven pounds from most of the other top players.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:56 AM

Scully: Spot Plays for Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park Feb. 12
James Scully

The first of two Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Tampa Bay Downs, the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3), highlights Saturday’s stakes action. Tampa will also offer a Kentucky Oaks qualifier, the Suncoast S., on its 11-race program.

A full field of 12 will head to the Davis starting gate, including four individual entrants in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager this weekend.

Along with a pair of Tampa plays, I’ll recommend a couple of horses on the 11-race card at Oaklawn Park.
Tampa Bay Downs
Pelican S., Race 7 (3:18 p.m. ET)

The six-furlong stakes will feature a big favorite in Baby Yoda, but he hasn’t run back to an allowance win last summer, disappointing at short odds on multiple occasions, and his recent Brisnet Speed numbers are on par with several rivals. #5 Pudding, a reformed claimer, returns to Tampa (9-4-2-1) following a couple of placings in Gulfstream stakes, netting commendable Speed figs (96 and 97), and the stalker is eligible to receive a favorable trip from his outside post.
Sam F. Davis (G3), Race 10 (4:54 p.m. ET)

Given the speed signed on, a hot and/or contested pace appears likely in the 1 1/16-mile Davis. And if #5 God of Love makes the transition to dirt, he should be rolling in the final furlongs. Bred for conventional main tracks, the Cupid colt will switch surfaces following an eye-catching performance in the Nov. 28 Grey S. (G3) on Woodbine’s Tapeta, rallying to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths, and God of Love has registered 109 and 101 Brisnet Late Pace ratings in the last two outings. The Mark Casse trainee is listed at an attractive 10-1 on the morning line.
Bet Tampa Bay Downs LIVE Racing Here
Oaklawn Park
Race 9 (5:20 p.m. ET)

#5 Connie K loves Oaklawn, winning both starts convincingly, and the Arkansas-bred filly enters this open entry-level allowance on the improve for Randy Morse. Two starts back, she easily captured a starter allowance at Churchill Downs on the front end, and the four-year-old crushed state-bred foes wire-to-wire last time, registering a field-best 90 last-out Speed rating. She’s stepping up today, but Connie K won’t face the toughest competition and will look to take it to her opponents from the start.
Razorback H. (G3), Race 10 (5:56 p.m. ET)

#8 Plainsman drew widest of all when defeating a nice group of allowance rivals at Oaklawn last spring, and he returns to Hot Springs in good form, recording a fine third behind Americanrevolution and Following Seas in the Cigar Mile (G1) in early December. The seven-year-old appears to be training forwardly for Brad Cox, recording a five-furlong bullet work in preparation, and he looks poised for a strong showing on the front end with Joel Rosario.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:56 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, February 12
Posted on February 11, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 3: SEAHORSE D’ORO (#2)

Freddymo Factor could go favored here off her narrow loss at this level last time out. While she ran a competitive race that day, she really is more of a turf horse. She also got a great trip stalking outside on a day when the rail was dead. She’s obviously a contender here, but I prefer some others at bigger prices. Both Scott Alaia and Raffinity are somewhat appealing off the claim for a pair of sharp barns. Scott Alaia goes out for Michelle Nevin, and Raffinity was claimed by Michelle Giangiulio. I prefer the recent form of Scott Alaia, but Raffinity has back races for Rob Atras that would make her dangerous if the new barn can bring out that form. I’m going in a different direction with Seahorse d’Oro. This horse was an interesting claim by Ray Handal two back, since he actually had this horse at the start of her career before she was claimed out of her debut. In her first start off the claim last time, she actually ran deceptively well. That pace held together and she was the only runner to make a significant run from the back of the pack, doing so while racing wide against a strong rail bias on Jan. 23. I like her stretching back out in distance to a mile, and she should be a decent price with Jalon Samuel named to ride again.

RACE 7: MEDICINE TAIL (#10)

American Monarch figures to go favored here after getting bet down to a ridiculous even-money at this level last time. He didn’t run to that support, but did nevertheless put in a decent effort to be second behind the improved Sound Money. A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix once again, but this is a competitive field and I don’t need the clear favorite at another underlaid price. One of the more obvious alternative is Scocciatore, who makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley. This barn has had some success off the claim recently, though Morley is no longer on the same hot streak that we witnessed last fall. That said, this gelding makes some sense here based on his limited dirt efforts. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to get back to his blowout victory from Saratoga over the summer, but he ran fine last time when just missing against New York-breds. I expect him to get a more aggressive ride this time from Luis Rodriguez. Despite the large field, I don’t see that much early speed in this race so I want runners that can be forwardly placed. My top pick at an even bigger price is Medicine Tail. This horse showed some talent on the dirt when he was a younger horse. He picked up a stakes-placing as a 2-year-old, and ran well at Keeneland last April in a fast allowance event for the level. He didn’t fare as well on Apr. 16, but he also got a strange ride that day. He came off the layoff at Turfway last time and put in a deceptively strong effort against a good field. That was a contested pace and he rushed up early before fading. The third-place finisher Pirate Rick, who he dueled with, returned to win with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I expect him to be aggressively ridden from this outside post and I think he’s a real threat getting back on dirt.

RACE 8: BARESE (#5)

Bold Journey is the horse to beat off his blowout maiden victory in December. He had shown promise in his career debut and stepped forward last time off the trainer switch to Bill Mott, easily drawing away from that field after setting the pace. The race was flattered when runner-up Golden Code returned to win his next start by over 10 lengths with a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Bold Journey is bred to stretch out as a half-brother to Cigar Mile winner Americanrevolution. My one knock against him is that he was late to change leads in his debut and he failed to change leads in his maiden win. He’s still a bit green, and I wonder if that will affect him as he steps up in class to meet a much tougher field. I prefer his main rival Barese. This horse didn’t run particularly fast in his career debut, but showed promise at Belmont last May. He was off for a long time, but picked up right where he left off in his return in the Rego Park. Dylan Davis gave him a confident ride, stalking outside behind a moderate pace before reeling in the leaders through the stretch. I love the way this horse levels off when he hits top gear, and I’m optimistic that he can handle the mile. He’s by versatile sire Laoban and his dam is a full-sister to Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument. The other horse who should have a say in the outcome is G Munning. The mile is a real question for him, but he did beat Bold Journey in each of their career debuts. I thought his connections made a mistake rating him last time, and he figures to get a more aggressive ride on the stretch-out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:57 AM

Piassek's Plays: Saturday Selections at Oaklawn Park
by John Piassek

Saturday, Feb. 12

Oaklawn Park, Race 9, post time 5:20 p.m. ET
Television schedule

Friday, Feb. 11: 3 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Feb. 12: 1:30 p.m.-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Feb. 13: 3 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

#5 Connie K: This is a first-level allowance race for fillies and mares at six furlongs. Connie K enters this race in career-best form. She handily defeated a starter allowance field two starts back at Churchill Downs, then cruised against fellow Arkansas-breds last out. In that race, she was pressed on the lead, but shook off all challenges and drew off easily. She earned a Brisnet speed figure of 90, a lifetime-top, and an Equibase figure of 89, which equaled her career-best on that scale. Some horses in this race have lots of back-class, including Joyful Cadence, who was third in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness Stakes last year, and Pharoah's Heart, who hasn't raced since a fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes in April. However, Connie K is in good form right now, as opposed to those two, who haven't raced much recently and may need some time to get into their peak condition. That makes Connie K the more interesting play.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on 5

$5 exacta: 5 with 11

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$11 to win on 5

$7 exacta: 5 with 4, 11 ($14 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on 5

$12 exacta: 5 with 4, 11 ($24 total)

$1 trifecta: 5 with 4, 11 with 2, 4, 8, 11 ($6 total)

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, Grade 3 Razorback Handicap, post time 5:56 p.m. ET

#3 Lone Rock: The co-feature on the Saturday card is the $600,000 Razorback Handicap, named after the mascot of the University of Arkansas. This race tends to attract horses not quite good enough for the upcoming big races in the Middle East, although a $360,000 first prize is nothing to sneeze at.

In fact, this year's Razorback features a horse who had a great season last year, and could have an even bigger one this year. Lone Rock won seven races last year, including five stakes races. His most impressive performance came in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes Presented by Northwell Health, which he won by 11 lengths. Most of his wins came at "marathon" distances of 1 1/2 miles or longer, but he showed aptitude at shorter distances when he won the Tinsel Stakes here last out to conclude his 2021 season. He has good tactical speed and a powerful late kick that will make him tough, even if the 1 1/16-mile distance is a bit shorter than he might like.

He's the slight morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds, but he's likely to go off at a higher price than he should. That's because Promise Keeper, who won the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes last out, is very likely to attract a lot of play, even though he hasn't raced since June. That makes him very vulnerable in my book. When you factor that dead money into the equation, Lone Rock looks like an even better play.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$6 to win on 3

$4 exacta: 3 with 8

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$13 to win on 3

$6 exacta: 3 with 4, 8 ($12 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$22 to win on 3

$8 exacta: 3 with 4, 8 ($16 total)

$2 trifecta: 3 with 4, 8 with 4, 6, 7, 8 ($12 total)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:57 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 2/12/22

February 12, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Split Then Double; 2-Annaghlasa

Forecast: The Saturday opener – an allowance optional/claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on grass – finds the two main contenders drawn side-by-side along the rail. Split Then Double (TOC=9/2; ML=3-1) makes her first start on the West Coast for trainer J. Sadler after beating maidens in her sixth career start with a big figure at Belmont Park and then bringing $190,000 through the ring at Keeneland in the November Mixed Sale. Three consecutive bullet workouts over the local training track indicate she’s ready to pick up where she left off, and from her good inside draw the English-bred filly is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip. Based on the huge figure she earned when breaking her maiden, she should be tough to beat. Annaghlasa (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) improved her Beyer speed figure by 16 points following a sprint tightener in her U.S. debut when she wired a maiden field in strong fashion while setting legitimate early fractions. She tackles tougher today, but the P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred, making just her fourth career starts, likely has plenty of further improvement in her. She appears to be the type that can adjust to any pace scenario but based on the projected race flow it wouldn’t surprise us to see her on the lead once again. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so both should be used in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Split Then Double.

Notable Workouts:

Split Then Double (February 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+
Strong solo training track drill, never really asked, final three furlongs in a sharp :35.4. Freshened since November, looks very good for new trainer J. Sadler and should be a very live item vs. first-level allowance fillies and mares over a route on ground on grass.
View Workout Video

Annaghlasa (February 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: B
Broke off slightly in front of Flint Stroll (same time) and was under a nice hold throughout while finishing a head in front at the wire, splits of :25 flat, :37 flat and 101.4 on our watches, a couple of ticks faster than given. Looked fine, but never changed leads through the lane. Comes off nice maiden score and should be competitive on the raise.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: C+
Single: 5-For Love Not Money

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint attracted just five entrants, with For Love Not Money earning top billing by default. She finished second in a similar event here last month while staying on through the lane and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by today’s extra half furlong. In a race that has little to offer, we’ll make her a rolling exotic single at 2-1 on the morning line, but if you choose to sit it out, that’s fine, too.

Notable Workouts:

For Love Not Money (February 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B-
Easy breeze for M. Glatt, splits of :24.2 and :49.2, never asked while moving well and remaining on edge. Should be set to graduate vs. bottom-rung maiden claimers next time.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Translate; 6-Gallovie

Forecast: Translate (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) demolished a softer starter’s allowance field last month after returning from the East and a similar effort today should be good enough for a repeat score in this six furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. She’ll likely to settle in the second flight in a good stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Gallovie (TOC=7/2); ML=4-1) is worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up. Winless in six starts over the Santa Anita turf course and just 2-for-18 in her career, the English-bred mare nevertheless rates a chance in her first start in 11 months with a solid recent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have her plenty fit. We’re expecting her to be in a cozy pace-stalking position throughout, and with good speed figures to go back to and a history of running well fresh, the R. Baltas-trained mare may be the one to fear most.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: C+
Single: 2-Starship Chewbacca

Forecast: Here’s a bleak affair, a bottom-rung $10,000 claiming sprint for older horses in which four of the seven recently competed at Los Alamitos. Starship Chewbacca (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) seems reasonably solid in his first start since being claimed by G. Papaprodromou, and a repeat of any one of his last three starts should be good enough. The veteran gelding is a one-paced sort without much early speed but seems likely to settle into a good second flight, stalking position and then have his chance to grind out another win. He is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower there probably isn’t a whole lot of wagering value to be found.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Ultimate Hy; 2-Fearless Girl; 1-Miss Costa Rica; 8-Pop Pop’s Dream

Forecast: This first-level allowance/optional claimer over a mile on grass is a split of today’s opener and looks considerably more contentious, though perhaps not as strong at the top. Ultimate Hy (TOC=8-1; ML=7/2) seems as good as any. Stretching out again after a recent sprint tightener down the Hillside course, the B. Heap-trained filly is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and has several back numbers that are par for this level. D. Van Dyke stays aboard and knows her well. Fearless Girl (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) is seeking her first U.S. victory in her fifth start since arriving from Ireland. The analytics are in her corner, her numbers are rising, she lands a comfortable inside draw, and she was four lengths clear of the rest when second to stakes performer Closing Remarks last time out, so the P. D’Amato-trained can be expected to produce a career top effort. That said, she’s a one-paced grinder with no real turn of foot, so she may be a hard one to totally embrace. Miss Costa Rica (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) stretches out again, lands the good rail, and switches to F. Prat, so we’re anticipating a significant forward move from the R. Baltas-trained filly. She’s another lacking in acceleration, so an aggressive ride from the gate to secure a forward position might be required to give her a reasonable chance. Pop Pop’s Dream (TOC=11-1; ML=4-1) is slower on numbers than the other contenders, but she’s won three in a row, including a nice score last month over this course and distance when rallying against the grain to be up in time. With some help up front today, she should be heard from in the final furlong.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: X
Single: 7-Fury Kap

Forecast: Fury Kap (TOC=9/2; ML=8/5) has been away since September of 2020, when he finished unplaced in the Speakeasy S. for juveniles after winning his debut at Tampa Bay Downs by more than nine lengths. The J. Sadler-trained gelding returns cheap in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 sprint and has the benefit of a good outside draw, the addition of Lasix, and the presence of F. Prat. Clearly, his connections don’t view him as a long term prospect, but we know he can fire fresh (he won his debut) and the workouts at Los Alamitos should have him plenty fit, so at 8/5 on the morning line he seems logical as a no-value, rolling exotic single in a race that might otherwise be best left alone.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 8-Sterling Crest; 7-Carroll Girl

Forecast: Sterling Crest may finally be ready to graduate in her fifth career outing, though her speed figures have stagnated and remain well below par for the level. However, this maiden turf miler for sophomore fillies came up unusually light, so we’ll put the Irish-bred daughter of No Nay Never slightly on top. Her R. Baltas-trained stable mate, Carroll Girl, must be included as well in rolling exotic play. Freshened since the fall, the First Samurai filly was nosed out in a similar event over this course and distance in just her second career start and gets F. Prat, so if she returns as well as she left, she could easily justify her role as the 9/5 morning line favorite.

Notable Workouts:

Sterling Crest (February 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B
Easy to the top, then was coaxed through the lane and finished well enough, splits of :25.1, :37.2 and 1:01.3, full stride late, solid drill for R. Baltas. Has some improvement in her and should find a maiden sophomore filly field she can beat eventually.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Got Thunder

Forecast: After displaying immense promise when second to the undefeated stakes winner Newgrange in his debut at Del Mar in November, Got Thunder went backwards in his second start the following month, winding up a distant second at 3/5 while being assigned a Beyer speed figure that was 18 points lower than what he had earned first time out. The son of Arrogate has trained exceptionally well since that flat performance and stretches out to a distance he’s bred to love, so let’s give the J. Sadler-trained colt another chance in a modest maiden special weight main track miler for 3-year-olds. He gets Lasix, retains F. Prat, and is listed at 4/5 on the morning line, so you can either take the short price in rolling exotic play or simply sit it out.

Notable Workouts:

Got Thunder (February 5, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B+
Mild coaxing early, ridden a bit late and finished in full stride, splits of :23.4, :35.1 and :59.3 for J. Sadler, strong drill while getting ready to stretch out in distance. Flashed promise in debut, went backwards in his second start, but now appears ready to step forward. Should greatly improve two-turning.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-I Got a Gal; 9-Urban; 7-Kitty Kitana

Forecast: Today’s finale is the Sweet Life S.-G3 for sophomore fillies sprinting down the Hillside Turf Course. I Got a Gal (TOC=13-1; ML=7/2 was miles the best when breaking her maiden in her first start on grass earlier this meeting. She overcame a horrendous start, a premature early move and very wide trip to graduate far more impressively than her moderate Beyer speed figure gives her credit for. This return to a sprint shouldn’t bother her at all, so with good racing luck the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile looks capable of handling the class hike at 7/2 on the morning line. Urban (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) is improving with racing and was visually pleasing in her maiden win over this course and distance last month. Most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home, the daughter of Quality Road retains F. Prat and is certain to receive the patient ride she requires. Kitty Kitana (TOC=4/5; ML=4-1) , beaten less than a length by Urban in that same race while making her U.S. debut for P. D’Amato, is raised into graded stakes company in a sign of confidence despite still maintaining her maiden status. The English-bred daughter of Bobby’s Kitten makes a major jockey switch to Johnny V. and will be rolling late. Additionally, the analytics love her. We’re expecting the winner to come from this list of three, with I Got a Gal the preferred pick on top.

Notable Workouts:

I Got a Gal (February 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B+
Solo training track drill for P. Eurton, mostly on her own, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.1 while maintaining her edge. Was tons the best in maiden win (self-caused trouble) and will get tested vs. stakes types next time out. Better on grass than dirt, it would seem, and should be capable of sprinting or routing equally well.
View Workout Video

Urban (February 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B+
Quite sharp in solo training track drill for S. Callaghan, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.3, never really asked. Quick-actioned daughter of Quality Road continues to improve and may have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:57 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: Gulfstream Middle Pick 4 Analysis: Saturday

February 12, 2022 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The middle Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park has turf sprint bookends and is the best group of races on the card.

It begins with the fifth race, which is the G3 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes, and ends with the eighth race, the Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes. Between them are maiden claiming and claiming races.

The suggested ticket amounts to $72, and here’s how I see it:

5th Race (1:57 p.m. ET, Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint S.-Gr. 3)

GEAR JOCKEY’s only dull appearance in two years came with a screaming-out excuse: He was in the B1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
He’s run well over the past year, with wins at Gulfstream, Saratoga and Kentucky Downs, where his victory came in the G3 Turf Sprint, less than two months before the sixth-place finish the BC Turf Sprint at Del Mar. His fortunes changed when trainer Rusty Arnold put the Twirling Candy runner on turf, and he’s 4 of 13 over the green stuff.

Also on the ticket: BELGRANO

6th Race (2:27 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

QUEEN CUPID made a significant improvement when she moved to the dirt after her first two on Tapeta.

She was just off the pace and close well for a good second last out going seven furlongs, and the 6.5 furlongs of this one could be the perfect distance. Jockey Angel Arroyo can take his time getting in good running position since she is more of a mid-pack runner than anything else.

There are several with a good chance in this evenly matched group.

Also on the ticket: I SAID HEY, SOUTH PACIFIC, CHESS NOT CHECKERS.

7th Race (3:01 p.m. ET, claiming)

SPIN RATE makes his second on the claim for Jeff Hiles and has enough speed to be get into the mix. His fourth-place last out was off an eight-month playoff and he’s likely to improve in his first off that break. Ran well at Oaklawn last year and should be a factor at this level locally.

This one is even more wide-open that the sixth, and there are many worth using.

Also on the ticket: CONGLOMERATE, GONNA BE EPIC, SWEENEY’S CAT, SMALL REASON, MAYOR REMO.

8th Race (3:33 p.m. ET, Ladies Turf Sprint S.)

MISS J MCKAY whisked past the field late and won going away in the Abundantia Stakes here last out. It’s unlikely she’ll get the same kind of pace meltdown in front of her, but she’ll still be rolling, and her class could take her home to another victory.

Also on the ticket: GUARDIAN MOON, MISS AURAMET.

Gulfstream Park 50-cent mid-card Pick 4:
5) #5 Belgrano, #7 Gear Jockey.
6) #5 I Said Hey, #6 South Pacific, #9 Chess Not Checkers, #11 Queen Cupid.
7) #1 Conglomerate, #3 Gonna Be Epic, #4 Sweeney’s Cat, #5 Spin Rate, #8 Small Reason, #12 Mayor Remo.
8) #2 Miss J McKay, #4 Guardian Moon, #6 Miss Auramet,
The ticket: 5-7 with 5-6-9-11 with 1-3-4-5-8-12 with 2-4-6 ($72).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:58 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Majestic Sign Riser has run well in some of the recent turf starts, and he is quick enough to be right up on the splits in a race without too much confirmed early burn. Interesting from close range at a decent price.
#2 Peacock Kitten He has a little bit of positional pace that might leave him in a decent spot into the far turn, but he'll need to fire off the bench while trying the local course for the first time.
#4 Gunnison He was in with some pretty good groups in his later 2021 tries, and he has a pretty formidable finishing kick on his best day. Not sure he's getting the greatest setup today, but his very best stuff might allow him to overcome it.
Race Summary Majestic Sign is likely to show a bit of pace while several of them sort it out just a couple lengths off the splits, and maybe his forward ability gives him enough of a jump on some obvious finishing threats.

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Paris Paramour Her only turf route try was pretty solid when a close fifth at Keeneland, and ahe might have some upside here while getting back to the grass off a modest synthetic effort last out. Overlooked with a chance.
#10 Lolloping This one seems pretty ready to roll at first asking, but she'll have to find a spot from the wide draw in the main body. Respect her chances for this team, but she's probably an underlay.
#11 Shishito Certainly have to give her a very long look if she's able to draw in, as she has some upside off the first turf try last out. Think she finds a pretty good trip if she goes today.
Race Summary Paris Paramour did not have the best go of things in her Keeneland turf try, but she still missed graduating by less than a length. Maybe she's along late here at a decent price.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Believing She might be a bit more versatile in style than her recent form would suggest, but the fact that she can settle and finish might work in her favor today. She's capable of something better than she showed last time out. Interesting.
#2 Blessed Anna She has been in consistent form with state-breds in recent starts, and she has the right kind of style to spy the speed today. She has always done good work here and looks like a threat if she holds form.
#3 Flatter Me Silly She makes a lot of sense in here, but her late kick was dulled a bit in her only two-turn try, and I worry she's going to be a bit overbet with these. Capable player.
Race Summary Could see the pace being just honest enough in here to go looking for something from off the splits. Believing didn't really bring her best last time around, but she can probably do better here with maybe enough forward players to set the table for her.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:58 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 PRICELESS BEACH Packs late kick, proven at this level, one to beat.
#1 NIGHT WATCHMAN Consistent form, could be put into play early from the rail.
#5 FABRIZIO Gave way chasing 8-5 winner, McNair tries his hand.
Race Summary Priceless Beach sustained a first-over rally to win going away the last time he tested this level. He has the best numbers and can parlay a class drop into his first win this year. Play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 BARBADOS Bothered on final turn, closed with a rush in mid-track to just miss.
#4 MINDTRIP Two wins in his last five starts, all from post 7 outward.
#5 THE BOOK OF LIFE Up for third on transition from half-mile oval, gets pace to run at.
Race Summary Barbados advanced first-over, altered course on the turn outside of an erratic rivals, then closed fastest and widest to get beat a neck. He is compromised by post 9 starting spot but remains the top choice nonetheless. Play a 4-5-9 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 CHIPPER DAISY Horror trip last week, strong play anywhere near 7-1 morning line.
#4 PRINCESS ROCKETTE Made middle move to brief lead, flattened out versus odds-on three-peater.
#2 DOJEA RITA Heavily-raced 6-year-old continues to pile up the checks.
Race Summary Chipper Daisy was trapped and shuffled badly on the final turn but closed with a rush when free in the stretch. She finished third but is a must play to turn the tables on the same rivals who finished ahead of her. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Bernie Lomax Ran evenly in a good maiden race at this distance last out and can improve more in his third start.
#4 Enough Already Tapit first-timer had a bullet work recently and has a long list of works; would not be a surprise.
#7 Hard Performer Bred to have speed running long and lands in a good spot for his debut.
Race Summary Bernie Lomax comes out of a tough race and the experience he has can work to his advantage against a promising, but mostly inexperienced group.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Hombre Usually finishes with energy and comes off a narrow win; solid turf performer.
#4 Chess's Dream Has a ton of class and makes his first since June; won the G3 Kitten's Joy here a year ago.
#8 Sigiloso Was second in the Sunshine Turf last out and is a threat to steal.
Race Summary Hombre has a good closing move and can stay within range; can get first jump on deep closers.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#5 Meister Does well close to the lead and can be a big player in his first of the year.
#6 Unbridled Honor Brings class to the table as his record including a second in the G3 Lexington; he was sixth in the G1 Preakness last year and has drilled well for his return.
#2 Aequor Was second throughout his latest and stretches out to a mile; was fourth the last time he tried the distance.
Race Summary Meister has the tactical speed to be in good position every jump of this one and his best could give him the upset win.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:59 AM

Santa Anita Park Selections for February 12, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Feb 11th, 2022 6:49pm PST

Santa Anita Park Selections for February 12, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

There should be some good racing on the card Saturday throughout the country. We have selections from the east to the west coast.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

Tampa Bay Downs has the most stakes races on the schedule with four events. The $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. 3) is the feature at Tampa Bay on Saturday.

You’ll need to go to Oaklawn Park for the feature of the day in the US. The $600,000 Razorback Handicap (Gr. 3) is the biggest race, though I’m not all too interested in betting the event.

TheSportsGeek does have picks at Tampa Bay Downs for Saturday, though. We’re heading to the west coast in California as well.

Santa Anita has nine events worth $486,000 in prize money. Head below for our best Santa Anita Park picks for February 12, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 6
(1) Musical Gem
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Sometimes Always
+300 (3/1)
(3) Me Likey
+600 (6/1)
(4) El Durango
+1200 (12/1)
(5) Circle Back
+400 (4/1)
(6) Sir Flatter
+300 (3/1)
(7) Fury Kap
+160 (8/5)

Post Time: 3:07 p.m. PST
Distance:5 ½ Furlongs
Purse:$26,000

Race 6 is a $26,000 event covering 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Sometimes Always and Fury Kap should be the ones to watch in this event.

Sometimes Always is a one-time winner through 10 outings and should find this easier than what he’s experienced recently. He’s gone winless in four straight races after a win on July 30.

Sometimes Always beat Paint Me Lucky by 1 ¾ lengths in a $25,000 event in July. In his last three assignments, he has finished 4th, 2nd, 5th.

He placed 2nd behind Swamp’n Ain’t Ez by a half-length for a $19,000 purse on December 3. Following that try, Sometimes Always finished 5th for a $26,000 prize.

Fury Kap looks like the toughest runner in Race 6. He is 1st, 9th in his career, with a win on May 29, 2020 on debut in a $20,000 event by 9 ¼ lengths.

Fury Kap came back on September 26, 2020 to finish 9th in the $100,000 Speakeasy Stakes. That was out of reach for Fury Kap, but after a layoff and good work in the morning, he looks ready to get back.

At 5 furlongs Fury Kap was clocked well under 1:00.00 in three attempts. He was timed at 58.60 seconds on January 30. This looks like a good chance at this level.
The Bet
(7) FURY KAP
+160
Place Bet Now!
Race 7
(1) Sweet Talked
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Rock the Bourbon
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Happy Happy
+1500 (15/1)
(4) Isola Mia
+1200 (12/1)
(5) Distorted Queen
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Phenom
+800 (8/1)
(7) Carroll Girl
+180 (9/5)
(8) Sterling Crest
+300 (3/1)
(9) Talented Lady
+1200 (12/1)
(10) Hemmerle
+400 (4/1)

Post Time: 3:39 p.m. PST
Distance: 1 Mile
Purse:$67,000

Race 7 is a $67,000 event over a mile on the turf. Sterling Crest and Carroll Girl should be in good form with a good attempt to win.

Sterling Crest has finished 2nd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd in four outings. The filly has been running in strong form recently.

The No. 8 placed 2nd behind Miss Mattie B by 3 ¾ lengths for a $70,000 race. After that nice showing, Sterling Crest returned on December 27 to show 3rd in a $67,000 event.

Carroll Girl is 7th, 2nd in two attempts, finishing 7th on August 15 at Del Mar in a $70,000 event. She showed a lot of improvement on October 15 at Santa Anita.

Carroll Girl came on to place 2nd behind Toeris by a nose for a $61,000 prize. She is looking better after a rough start to her career and has to be considered in this spot.
The Bet
(7) CARROLL GIRL
+180
Place Bet Now!
Race 8
(1) Kerouac
+300 (3/1)
(2) Cover Me Up
+400 (4/1)
(3) Mongolian Box
+2000 (20/1)
(4) Got Thunder
-125 (4/5)
(5) Classic Mark
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Sense of Dominance
+1200 (12/1)
(7) Noble Union
+800 (8/1)

Post Time: 4:13 p.m. PST
Distance:1 Mile
Purse:$67,000

Race 8 is a $67,000 assignment over a mile on the dirt. Kerouac and Got Thunder should be in the mix at the wire.

Kerouac made his debut on January 21 and held up well enough for a $67,000 purse on January 21. After finishing 4th, Kerouac has to be open for improvement in his next race.

He has been putting in the work in the morning with quick times. Kerouac was timed at 47.60 and 47.20 seconds at 4 furlongs in his most recent workouts at 5 furlongs.

Got Thunder has placed 2nd in two races in his career. He placed 2nd behind Newgrange by 1 ½ lengths in a $70,000 assignment as a rookie on November 28.

Got Thunder followed up in 2nd, this time 5 ¼ length loss a month later in December. The colt is a $750,000 horse that is in good shape in workouts as well.

He was timed at 1:00.00 and 59.60 seconds at 5 furlongs in productive workouts. Got Thunder will have company, but should finish this field off.
The Bet
(4) GOT THUNDER
-125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:59 AM

LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: FEB. 12, 2022
John Piassek

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $623 Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

6-4-2-1

It’s not unreasonable to be suspicious of #6 Heartness (5/2)‘s last race. He ran far and away a career-best brisnet figure, an 88, while chasing the pace and finishing second at Parx last out. He has never run better than a 71 prior to that race. However, it was still a more visually impressive performance than most of his prior races; he hung on well throughout and never looked to be in serious danger of missing the exacta. He also broke his maiden two starts back in gate-to-wire style. Adds lasix for the first time to boot. #4 Schoolyard Bully (5/1) sat the trip and drew off impressively to break his maiden last out. Kevin Dove claimed him out of that start. Should get a good setup just off the pace once again. #3 Gunhand (2/1) ran a big race on the lead against winners last out, showing speed for the first time and lasting on a fast pace. Anthony Farrior has been money at this meet so far.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

6-4-5-7

#6 One Night Stand (5/2) shipped up from Florida and raced for Brittany Russell for the first time last out. He had a tough trip and recovered to get fourth. Should show lots of improvement here. #4 Love My Cat (10/1) was starting to round into form when grass season ended, now switches to dirt and makes her first start since November 19. This probably isn’t her best surface, but her closing style should play well at this distance. #5 Areema (5/1) closed sharply for third two back in her first local start but didn’t do much on the Charles Town bullring last out. That disguises her form a little bit.

J. D. Acosta reaches 3,500 wins
Jockey J. D. Acosta scored today at Laurel Park to post the 3,500th victory of his career.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

6-5-7-3

#6 Sunshineandrainbows (2/1) ran a big race first off the layoff, setting an honest pace and battling gamely in the stretch to get second. She’ll be a tough customer on the lead once again. #5 Hufflepuff (5/2) runs in the 70s pretty consistently and stays against n/w2L types after some tries against Maryland-bred allowance company. She ran a game race while racing wide in her last start. #7 Spanikopita (4/1) broke her maiden impressively first off the layoff two back, but was disappointing against better last out. She’s a safe bet for a rebound.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

2-7-6-5

#2 Joe Mike Jim (3/1) broke through for a professional maiden-breaking. score, shaking off pace challenges and drawing off easily in her first start off the claim for Claudio Gonzalez. Interested to see how she stretches out from a mile. #7 Jackie the Joker (9/2) won two in a row at Charles Town then found herself overmatched in the Xtra Heat Stakes last out. Should find these a bit easier. #6 Sommer Velvet’s (6/1) form is a bit obscured, as she was cruising on the lead at Parx in her last race when she veered out and unseated the jockey. Had she won that race, and it looked like she was going to, she’d be a much lower price here. As things stand, she has a big chance again as long as she minds her manners.

RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-7-10-9

Brittany Russell will saddle a pair in here. While I’m usually more inclined to go with horses with experience in these kind of races, #5 Zen Master (6/1) is an especially intriguing firster for her. He sold for $370,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2020, and has been working well over the past several weeks, including a bullet drill on February 2. He’s a son of the precocious Mastery, while his dam, Bendable, was a two-time stakes winner in southern California. I’m interested to see what kind of action this one takes. #7 Keeping the Edge (5/1) went up to Aqueduct for his debut, and raced wide throughout while running a figure of 89. That kind of number makes him tough. Adds blinkers and gets the hot-riding VIctor Carrasco aboard. #10 Rhumjar (9/2) ships down from New York for Tim Hills. He’s bene getting better with each start and adds lasix.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

8-3-2-6

#8 Away to Return (9/2) dueled with Hope Has a Name throughout in her last start. Although Hope Has a Name crossed the wire first, Away to Return battled gamely throughout and held on for second. We’ll see if she can carry her speed going a mile. #3 Mi Cleopatra and I (5/1) saw a four-race win streak snapped last out, when she could not get by Tweet Away Robin in the stretch. Although she just missed in that race, she ran a career-best figure of 84, and has run in the 80s in her last four races. Eligible for a bounce-back race here. #2 Maggie’s Bid (12/1) showed speed and went gate-to-wire to break her maiden last out in an impressive performance. This’ll be her first start beyond seven furlongs, so we’ll see how far she can take it.

Rosario Montanez
Jockey Rosario Montanez makes Sunday return
Jockey Rosario Montanez has had a long road back since a 2020 injury. He’ll reach the starting gate for the first time since on Jan. 30.

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

3-2-4-8

#3 Closertotheheart (2/1) has been close at this level recently, including a second-place finish last out where she ran on late. She cut back to six furlongs from a mile in that race; this distance looks better-suited for her style. #2 Kerics Beauty (8/1) was an impressive maiden winner at Penn National two starts back and should get a great trip rating off the pace. #4 Memphis Mafia (5/2) races second off the layoff for Jamie Ness. She’s shown speed and faded in her last two, but was in good form before that and can recapture it if she get a mild enough pace.

RACE 8: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMIN $25,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-1-2-3

#4 Algebraic (8/5) was impressive on the lead in his last start, winning at this level with a big figure of 96. He’s improved sharply in each of his last two starts. #1 D’Rapper (3/1) also competed at this level last out, and closed strongly up the inside for third. Looks likely to get a great ground-saving trip, which will give him a shot to get through up the inside again. #2 Seanow (5/1), a Ness trainee just like D’Rapper, has improved in his last few and has good closing speed. He ran figures as high as 97 last summer and is starting to get back into form since returning from a 2 1/2-month break.

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-2-3-8

#5 Mending (4/1) comes out of the same race as the aforementioned Hope Has a Name and Away to Return. She rated off those dueling leaders and came up empty, but had won back-to-back starts prior to that race. We’ll see which version of her shows up. #2 Miner’s Gem (4/1) has won four in a row in front-running style against much weaker opposition, and gets her class test here. Her figures make her a serious contender, but she might have to work a bit harder to win this one. #3 Behind the Couch (7/2) just missed against Mending two starts back and will be the first to try and take advantage if the leaders falter.

RACE 10: CLAIMING $10,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

2-3-4-7

#2 Chica Rabiosa (7/5) cuts back from a mile and has dominant early speed. Looks like a serious threat to wire them. #3 I’m a Lil Bossy (8/1) rated off the pace and drew off to break her maiden at fourth asking last out. This’ll be her first start since October 29, and adds lasix for the first time. #4 Miz the Best (6/1) made a solid move to the front last out and flattened out. Goes second off the layoff here and has a chance to put it together with the race under her belt.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2022, 10:59 AM

Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Feb. 12

FIRST RACE: 4-2-7-8

SECOND RACE: 6-5-2-4

THIRD RACE: 9-3-6-2 (BEST BET)

FOURTH RACE: 5-2-4-6

FIFTH RACE: 1-2-8-5

SIXTH RACE: 7-6-2-4

SEVENTH RACE: 7-10-8-6

EIGHTH RACE: 4-1-2-6

NINTH RACE: 2-9-7-8