Friday 2/18/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$30,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 18, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 9-race card. The poplar 0.20 Pick 5 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

4-Frewil Dakota Sven (10-1)-Hasn't been able to seal the deal versus this kind but can close in a hurry. Should offer a juicy price and has a shot to upset if Stewart can get into striking range by the top of the lane.
5-Dancin Lance (2-1)-Recent form has been sharp and got knocked out of last with an interference break. Could be in the hunt here with a decent steer.
7-Albergo Hanover (6-1)-Raced from the back in the 1st start off the bench and came the back half in .55. Looking for even better in its 2nd start at CalX.
8-Its Pointless (5/2)-Consistent competitor at this class but was hurt by a rough trip in last. Kennedy can provide a sharp steer and thinking the price could be better than the morning line with this post draw.

Race 7

1-Bombay Hanover (5-1)-Camera shy 6-year-old could get sucked around behind #3 and make one move to sweep by down the lane. The price should be right to take a swing and drops to a better level for success.
6-Northrook Ron (2-1)-This is a soft spot for Ron, but he is trip dependent. Usually looks to come off cover so will need honest fractions. The pace could be lively, Lackey knows well and should be a small price.

Race 8

4-Outlanothnbutsmrt (5/2)-Rolled the 2nd half in .56 to beat this kind in last. Best to respect as there is no reason to think the same outcome isn't a possibility.
6-Starstruck Cowgirl (9/5)-Plano sticks and won't offer any value after just missing in last. The winner on 2-4 isn't in this filed and it looks like this beaten chalk is a main player again.

Race 9

1-Heza Big Dealer (12-1)-Lackey drove in last and tonight this was his choice over #7. Likes to race near the top of the stack and that plan can happen here. Will take a swing for a price and look for an efficient trip.
8-Giggle Monster (2-1)-This is a soft spot and is due for a smooth journey. Roland can be aggressive versus this crew.

0.20 Pick 4

4,5,7,8/1,6/4,6/1,8
Total Bet=$6.40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis - 2/18/22

February 18, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Sugary

Forecast: Sugary (TOC=3/5; ML=9/5) had no visible excuse when finishing fourth, beaten less than two lengths, in a similar $25,000 claimer over the local lawn last month but she’s most effective as a miler, so with this shortening in trip plus the switch to U. Rispoli the nine-year-old mare seems well-spotted to regain her winning form. She shows four victories over the Santa Anita turf course and six lifetime scores at this one mile distance, so with good racing luck the J. Wong-trained mare should be capable of producing the last run. We’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Quantum Quest; 5-Too Late

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Quantum Quest (TOC=5/2; ML-3-1) has rising speed figures plus a sharp win over this track and distance two races back, two main factors that earn him top billing. He’s also being reunited with “win rider” K. Frey. Too Late (TOC=7-1; ML=3-1) is a first-time gelding exiting a series of state-bred allowance races and seems certain to improve against this group. He has previous numbers that would easily beat this field, though you have to go back to the spring of 2020 to find his last win. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main punch going to Quantum Quest.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Cosmo; 1-Street Ruckus

Forecast: Cosmo (TOC-7/5; ML=8/5) has never been one to trust – he’s 1-for-17 in his career – but the veteran gelding finished a solid second last month in a similar event last in which the winner and third place finisher both came back to win. With F. Prat staying aboard, the D. O’Neill-trained son of Distorted Humor really should be a standout, but his lack of a winning punch requires us to also include on our ticket, at least a saver or a backup, Street Ruckus (TOC=3/2; ML=4-1). . After a confidence-building win over this course and distance last month and from the red-hot V. Cerin barn, the son of Street Boss is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post position, and with just six career starts on his resume has room for further improvement than most of the others don’t.


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Princess Alexis; 3-Sweet California; 5-Tizzt Twister

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old California-bred fillies, with the H. Palma-trained first-timer Princess Alexis appearing well-spotted for a big effort first crack out of the box. The daughter of Stanford has shown some speed in morning drills without being asked for her best, and while the barn doesn’t show a high percentage with debut runners, they often run better than they work. Sweet California was green and always outrun in her debut vs. much stronger straight maiden foes on grass last month but with that race behind her and with F. Prat staying aboard she’s almost certain to improve a bunch in this modest affair. Tizzy Twister, a distant but respectable second in her first outing, is another likely to produce a forward move. She was more than three lengths clear of the others while earning an okay speed figure, so if she can step forward just a little bit, she should have some say in the matter.

Notable Workouts:

Princess Alexis (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Caught her in a 3-horse gate drill last month proving best over Awesome Rhythm (same time, second best early, came through inside) and Tap Union (5f, 1:03.4hg, always far back) and did pretty well without being asked much at any stage, well clear early and then taken in hand on the turn and allowed to drift wide and coast home, splits of :24.2, and :36 flat (eased up there) before continuing out in :49 flat and 1:02.3 on our watches, not bad for a maiden-claiming type. Daughter of Stanford could be a live item in the proper spot for H. Palma.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Song of Fire; 2-Floral Essence; 3-Pistachio Princess

Forecast: Here’s a six-runner affair for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive and advance using three, but nothing would surprise us. Song of Fire (TOC=8-1; ML=3-1) was a bit stale in her last two outings up north but could snap back to life for new trainer J. Sadler after being freshened for six weeks. She’s facing a considerably softer group, has good tactical speed, and likely will be in range throughout under F. Prat, so we’ll give her the edge on top. Floral Essence (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) broke her maiden over this course and distance when facing $50,000 company last month and is realistically spotted in her first try vs. winners. On pure numbers, she’s the one to beat, and the analytics love her. Pistachio Princess (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2), a first-off-the-claim play for J. Wong (27% with this angle), wants to be the controlling speed, and if she can make the running without undue pressure, she will take this field a very long way. Regular rider J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows her well.

Notable Workouts:

Song of Fire (February 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B-
Solo training track drill for J. Sadler, ridden and asked through the lane to be doing best, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.3. Moderate claimer from the Bay Area seems to be doing well enough for new trainer and should be competitive on this circuit.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 6: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Soy Tapatio; 6-Memo Daddy

Forecast: Soy Tapatio (TOC=5/2; ML=8/5) made his first start as a gelding in his most recent start and left his previous form behind with a gate-to-wire score while earning his second consecutive huge speed figure in a performance that if repeated today should produce a repeat victory. Based on our pace projection (modest early splits), the D. O’Neill-trained 4-year-old may be the controlling speed once again, though we suspect he could just as easily settle and pounce if the race flow demands. Memo Daddy (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) is somewhat intriguing. Gelded since his last race and adding blinkers for the first time, the Chilean import is unproven on dirt, but the works on the main track seem okay, and he picks up F. Prat, so we’ll toss him in for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Soy Tapatio (February 121, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: B
Much best in a three-horse gate drill with I’ll Stand Taller (5f, 1:01.3hg) and Hotrod Ride (4f, :48.4hg) for D. O’Neill, breezing most of the way while on the far outside with splits of :25 flat, :36.4 and :48.4 before coasting out five furlongs in 1:01.3 on our watches. Holds his form, has room for improvement and should be competitive on the raise following a sharp maiden route win.
View Workout Video


__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 7: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Ice Cold Gold; 3-Unfaithful Ways; 2-Basket Case

Forecast: High-priced maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies meet over a mile in the Friday finale. Ice Cold Gold adds blinkers and seems likely to be the controlling speed in her second local start since arriving from Florida. The P. D’Amato-trained filly has modest speed figures, but she’s produced a forward move in each of her three outings and probably will do the same today. If she can get loose early, she might get brave late. Unfaithful Ways , a recent $50,000 claim by hot trainer R. Baltas, finished with interest to be third in a similar affair over this course and distance last month, removes blinkers, and retains V. Espinoza. She’s a bit of a grinder and not particularly fast on numbers but she’s steadily improving and should at least get a piece of it. Basket Case was given an educational run in her debut and seems likely to improve with that bit of experience behind her. She exits a fast (and already productive) race for the level, stretches out to two-turns, adds blinkers, drops a notch on the maiden-claiming ladder, and switches to F. Prat, factors that make well-meant on several fronts.

Notable Workouts:

Basket Case (February 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, ridden through the lane to be clearly second best with Happy Runner (same time, breezing, could have gone much faster), splits of :12 flat, :24.1 and :48.4 on our watches. Not a speed type, probably wants to lag and produce a late run. Maiden claimer might act on grass.
View Workout Video

Unfaithful Ways (January 31, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h TT). Grade: B-
Blinkers off, just galloping through the lane in solo training track drill for new trainer R. Baltas, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :37 flat. Probably can improve for new connections, wants to run long on the lawn.
View Workout Video

Ice Cold Gold (February 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, easy to the top and not really asked much through the lane, final half mile in :12.1, :224.2 and :49.3 for P. D’Amato. Has room to improve, wants to be the controlling speed going long vs. maiden claimers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli: Stronach 5 Analysis | Friday, Feb. 18, 2022

February 18, 2022 | By Frank Carulli

STRONACH 5 ANALYSIS
February 18, 2022

The road to a five-figure Stronach 5 payout recently has gone through Golden Gate Fields, one of four tracks that make up the cross-country wager this week. The last seven times a race from Golden Gate was in the sequence, four of the winners paid $30 or more to win, triggering an average payout of $44,000 for the $1 wager. Here's an early look at this week’s action, with an update to follow Friday after scratches:

LEG A: (Laurel Park, race 8, 3:53 EST) -- Five of the six entrants exit the race won by Visual Artist, who came back to conquer starter allowance foes. MAID THE JOURNEY rallied from the clouds to finish second, but SOUPER EMPEROR, who finished 1-1/4 lengths farther back in third, can turn the tables with a decided tactical advantage in what appears a pace-less race. JACK GAVE BACK benefited from a lively pace battle in front of him and a couple troubled rivals behind when he won by 6-1/4 lengths off the claim for a 27-percent ‘repeat’ barn. He will be an underlay but should be used in the leadoff leg nonetheless.

LEG B: (Gulfstream Park, race 8, 4:11 EST) -- SMILING TEUFLES survived a long duel to win three starts back, was restless behind the gate when second two back and overcame another poor break to upset last out. He’s worth using in his current form. ABSOLUTE GRIT fired three consecutive bullet workouts to prepare for his first start of the year in a new barn. He’s a $50,000 earner at the distance, lures Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride and figures tough if he can avoid recurring trouble lines. ENSIGN PARKER has speed and the rail and could take some catching at a decent price.

LEG C: (Golden Gate, race 3, 4:18 EST) -- CIRCULODEGANADORAS shortens up after she set the pace for 6F before tiring at one mile. She chased a fast pace and held second the last time she sprinted, shows a fastest-of-65 workout after the claim by Wong and can use her speed wisely from the outside. At the opposite end of the spectrum, BIG CHICK draws the rail with slow-starting habits, but she gets class relief, shows decent late kick and benefits from past performance lines that abound with next-out winners. It’s a tricky leg to get through as the field is a combined 99/19-18-19 on synthetic tracks.

LEG D: (Gulfstream Park, race 9, 4:42 EST) -- TIMMY M overcame a slow start to win a turf-to-dirt route off the claim. In his prior five starts on the grass, the winners of those races are a combined 29-for-143 with $918,000 in earnings. EXCHANGE DAY dueled and gave way in the stretch in that same race, but he will take some catching in his third start off a layoff. MARISA’S MISSION improved steadily as a 3-year-old, beat Timmy M to begin his 4-year-old campaign and gets Saez for a return to the turf.

LEG E: (Santa Anita, race 3, 5:08 EST) -- STREET RUCKUS edged clear in the stretch and won a $50,000 maiden claimer to become the only entrant in the field to win at this distance on turf. His connections are red-hot, too, so he is a must use. COSMO exits a pair of double-key races won by Encroachment (3-6, $108k) and Solo Animo (3-7, $78k). His only win, however, was as a 1-to-5 favorite in a 6-horse field. GOLDINI makes his seasonal debut off a 6-month layoff for D’Amato. He gets in light-weighted and doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera.

Suggested $1 Ticket

Leg A: 2, 5
Leg B: 1, 3, 5
Leg C: 1, 7
Leg D: 3, 4, 8
Leg E: 1, 2, 7

COST: 108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Fiber and Emily There are a couple others in here with a little bit of early speed, but this guy is probably too quick early for these on his best day, and he seemed happy to be back with the locals when posting that sharp score last out.
#2 Strong Heart He's a pretty reliable type, and that might count for something here in a spot where some of them can be spotty at times. He's tactical enough to keep the top choice in his sights. Capable exacta player.
#4 Opera Nite He ran well to score last time out, and despite the fact that he brings inconsistent form, it's worth noting this is the time of year he got really good here last season, too. Maybe he holds that form.
Race Summary Fiber and Emily looks tough on the front end here, and there doesn't appear to be anyone quick enough to really hassle him without paying a price for it late. Guessing it's his race to lose.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Mutakaamil His best game keeps him right in the mix with these, and his only local appearance produced an easy score in December. He'll need a little bit of pace to rally into here, but a couple forward players might keep the splits honest enough to set things up for this one.
#2 Gigging He's a tough read, because he's bringing pretty dull recent form, but he has been in with better groups in Louisiana and Kentucky in his latest tries. Finisher will need a setup over a course he has never tried -- underlay?
#3 Cielo Azul He has been settling for underneath slices in his recent starts, but he figures for a really nice trip with these that should give him the jump on the top pair into the final turn. Right there.
Race Summary Mutakaamil seems capable with a group that might include an underlay in Gigging, whose better form stacks up but is no lock here. Mutakaamil was sharp in his only local try and would be plenty appealing at anything like the 6/1 ML price.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Poppy's Two Step A little intrigued by this one at what should be a big price. He'll be making his second start off the long layoff after turning in an okay effort in his first try over the local footing. Not sure what kind of upside a guy like this has at age 10, but he can probably move forward a bit after the first try off the year+ break.
#3 Awesome D J He takes a huge class drop for this, giving him an obvious claim on this, but not sure it's ever a great sign when you're dropping in for $5,000 in your Charles Town debut off the layoff after being last seen at the $50,000 level. You can have him.
#7 Company Clown He's another who gets some class relief, but he was racing for this price last year, so it doesn't feel like a panicky drop. He's an obvious threat to land this late.
Race Summary Poppy's Two Step is an admitted swing in the finale, but the chalks don't inspire and/or have major red flags, and maybe this guy can step forward off what might have been a useful chase and fade comeback run. Why not.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #11
Picks Notes
#8 IMMA BE Carried speed the distance on barn change, nearing $100k, taken to repeat.
#6 DECLAN SEELSTER Sprung 14-1 upset at this level, should get ample pace flow.
#3 TONIANNE Takes on the boys, simply loves to win.
Race Summary Imma Be awakened on the class drop in his first start for Burke and has plenty of back-class to handle the rise and post 8. Let's make him today's Best Bet.

Meadowlands - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 CAPTAIN'S REIGN Had dead aim on victory but faltered late at odds-on.
#3 OPUS BLUE CHIP Takes some catching in similar field, Bongiorno tries his hands.
#2 PIRATES ALLEY Blew past top pair with furious late rally.
Race Summary Captain's Reign came out at the half-mile marker, loomed boldly at the top of the stretch, but hung late while dueling with the 5-2 pace setter Opus Blue Chip. He was overtaken late by Pirate's Alley as the 2-to-5 favorite but could turn the tables despite a 2-36 record the last two years.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 AMERICAN TOUR N Surged 4-wide late to nail odds-on fave at the Meadowlands.
#2 KAT Parlayed pocket trip into easy victory at this level.
#6 DILLY TARYN Rallied for two wins and a third in five starts this year.
Race Summary American Tour N took back to sixth off the gate, picked up live cover on the backstretch and gunned down the 4-to-5 favorite through a :27.4 final quarter at the Meadowlands. She fits the conditions well, moves outside in, and is taken to repeat. Play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Demogorgon Lost a photo last out and put up a fight despite putting down quick fractions for a half-mile; on the board in four of five.
#6 Steel City Dude Was up in time at the end of a long drive last out and seeks his third win.
#1 Peter D Won three straight until his last one, when he didn't fire; can be closer to the lead this time around.
Race Summary Demogorgon went down fighting last out and is game enough to take on this group and have success at it.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 First Rule Ran an even third in a fast race last out and put the hammer down earlier this time; one to hold off.
#5 Smiling Teufles Was a clear winner last out and has won two of his last three.
#4 Absolute Grit Has several good races over the track and can battle close up throughout.
Race Summary First Rule has been in good races and should be tough to beat at this level.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Mister Leonardo Was too late in his bid last time in a race that came off the turf; has been sharp in several grass races.
#3 Timmy M. Was clear vs. similar last out and has been on the board in his last five.
#4 Exchange Day Has the speed to get to the lead and can be difficult to catch if he can back up the pace.
Race Summary Mister Leonardo will get a good pace setup up and can make a strong run toward the end of it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Feb. 18

FIRST RACE: 2-6-3-1

SECOND RACE: 3-7-2-4

THIRD RACE: 2-1-7-6

FOURTH RACE: 3-2-7-4

FIFTH RACE: 4-3-2-6

SIXTH RACE: 4-5-6-1

SEVENTH RACE: 2-8-6-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Friday, February 18
Posted on February 17, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 2: TO A T (#4)

Bella Principessa looks like the one to beat at first glance. She easily defeated a lower-level claiming field two back before backing up that number with a solid third against allowance company last time. She held her form first off the claim for Bob Klesaris after exiting the Rudy Rodriguez barn. That said, she was riding a very strong rail on Jan. 23, which may have enhanced her performance. She obviously handles the distance, but she still has some questions to answer at this level racing over a fair track. There are a couple of intriguing new faces on this circuit. Both Bourbon Rebellion and Calescent have shown the talent to compete against this field when racing out of town. I prefer Bourbon Rebellion, who makes her first start off a trainer switch to Carlos Martin. Interestingly, this is her first start on Lasix. She’s run well on dirt before and has a recency edge over Calescent. That rival makes her first start for Rob Atras, who doesn’t have great numbers coming off layoffs. They’re both worth including, but I went in a different direction. My top pick is To A T. She appeared to regress sharply in her first start on this circuit last time, but she had some things working against her. She got off to a poor start and then found herself trying to close from last while racing wide over a track that was extremely rail-biased. She’s obviously better than that effort, and showed that just one month earlier at Gulfstream Park. While she was competing for Saffie Joseph back then, she did run a series of competitive speed figures against comparable company. I worry a little about the pace in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed, but she is still a rebound candidate.

RACE 6: BIG CASTLE (#6)

Mister Candy Ride figures to go favored in this spot as he drops down in claiming price in his second start since being acquired by Linda Rice. His first start for this barn was fairly underwhelming, as he never got involved as the seemingly stronger half of the 9-5 favored entry. He looked like a decent claim for $50k following a strong runner-up effort at Churchill Downs last November, but that race doesn’t look as strong in retrospect. The fact that he’s now dropping for half of the claiming price is not a good sign, though Rice does have strong statistics with this move. The more troubling thing to me is that Rice’s horses have not been running well at this meet, generally underperforming relative to expectations. I want to go in a different direction, and there are two viable alternatives. One of those is Make It In Ny, who moves back down into the claiming ranks after trying NY-bred allowance company last time. He may have just found 9 furlongs too far for him, and this seems like a more appropriate spot. I’m not against him, but I’m more intrigued by big Castle at a better price. This horse made his first start off a trainer switch to Horacio DePaz last time, and never really had a chance given his trip. The track on Jan. 16 strongly favored horses getting inside trips and Big Castle was wide every step of the way. He paid the price for that ground loss, finishing far back, but I think he has a right to rebound in his return to a fair track. He had shown promise previously when breaking his maiden going this distance at Belmont last September.

RACE 7: EPONA’S DREAM (#6)

Both Mashnee Girl and Cazilda Fortytales move up in class off visually impressive victories in which they earned superior speed figures. However, I’m highly skeptical that either one of them will be able to reproduce that form. Both were riding strong track biases that enhanced their performances. That’s especially true of Mashnee Girl, who defeated the heavily favored Shalimar Gardens while racing on the best part of the track before the other riders had figured out that the rail was such an edge. That 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure towers over this field, but I expect her to regress significantly if the track is fair. Cazilda Fortytales didn’t run quite as fast in her last victory, but also rode a gold rail and is a question mark going this mile distance. I want horses who are proven at this level and distance. One of those is Ifihadachance. While she lost both prior attempts for this N2X condition last fall, she figures to appreciate stretching back out to a mile here. She seemed to improve with added ground for Rob Falcone when claimed by these connections last summer, and is a win candidate in her return from the layoff. I’m also interested in runners exiting the Jan. 20 race at this level. That was another day that featured a rail bias, and neither Frost Me nor Epona’s Dream spent much time inside. Frost Me probably got the better trip since she was stalking a slow apce that held together. Yet I was most impressed by the performance of Epona’s Dream. She was wide every step of the way, racing against the track, yet still made a strong late push to just miss. That wasn’t the strongest field for the level, but I don’t think this one is as tough as it might seem at first glance. Aside from a perplexing poor effort two back, Epona’s Dream has been on an upward trajectory while racing on dirt, and I think she’s found a suitable spot to break through with another win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kristpicks

aqueduct racetrack - friday, february 18, 2022 // post time - 12:50 p.m. Est

- daily selections for february 18 -

race 1:
6 - dusted 5-1
1 - belle shazza 9-2
2 - herecomesangelina 3-1

race 2:
4 - to a t 4-1
5 - calescent 7-2
2 - bella principessa 9-5

race 3:
6 - flower moon 7-2
1 - boss cara 9-5
5 - new york banker 8-1

race 4:
4 - banyan breeze 12-1 - longshot
7 - brilliant brooks 4-1
6 - montauk daddy 8-1


race 5:
4 - vegas weekend 4-1 - best bet
5 - frost point 7-2
3 - primacy 6-1

race 6:
5 - make it in ny 3-1
3 - mister candy ride 9-5
6 - big castle 9-2

race 7:
7 - khali magic 8-1
1 - frost me 9-2
2 - mashnee girl 5-2

race 8:
8 - total effort 6-1
3 - stone surprise 10-1
7 - motion to strike 4-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park Selections for February 18, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Feb 17th, 2022 9:53pm PST

Laurel Park Selections for February 18, 2022 – Horse Racing Picks

There are a minimum of 15 racecourses available for wagering at the BetOnline racebook. Aqueduct Racetrack, Santa Anita Park, Oaklawn Park, and Fair Grounds Race Course are the leaders today. Fair Grounds is putting on the main show on Saturday.

Industry Leading 9% Cashback!

There are six stakes races at Fair Grounds, including the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (Gr. 2) for 50-20-10-5 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The winner will receive 50 points, while the second-place team will still get a very solid 20 points which could end up being a difference by May.

We have picks at Aqueduct Racetrack and Laurel Park on Friday afternoon. If you want an Aqueduct in Queens, check our Aqueduct Racetrack page. Laurel Park has eight races worth $290,400 in prize money. Head below for our best Laurel Park picks for February 18, 2022.
Taking Your Horse Race Betting to the Next Level
Race 4
(1) Music Mandate
+450 (9/2)
(2) My Boss
+1200 (12/1)
(3) Miss Casey
+250 (5/2)
(4) I’m Gittin There
+1000 (10/1)
(5) She’s a Big Deal
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Miss Central
+1000 (10/1)
(7) Mama G’s Wish
+200 (2/1)
(8) Preparefortakeoff
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 1:55 p.m. EST
Distance:5 ½ Furlongs
Purse:$48,000

Race 4 covers 5 ½ furlongs for a $48,000 purse on Friday at Laurel Park. This one should develop into a fight between Mama G’s Wish and Miss Casey in the stretch run.

Mama G’s Wish is 3 for 12 and 1st, 1st, 1st in her previous three attempts. Off a hat-trick, Mama G’s Wish is looking for more after a 6 ½ length victory on January 28 in a $51,840 assignment.

This was following a 1 ½ length win on New Year’s Day for a $40,020 purse. Another win looks possible for Mama G’s Wish in this spot. The filly deserves respect here.

Miss Casey has finished 4th, 3rd, 5th, 4th, 4th, 1st in six career races. She is coming off a win over Charming Way by 4 ¾ lengths in a $46,949 event on January 28.

That was a solid performance after finishing 4th in a $29,700 race. That was a discouraging performance. If Miss Casey runs how she did in the win last month, this is going to be a big chance.

The winning nod goes to Miss Casey who should carry decent value in Race 4.
The Bet
(3) MISS CASEY
+250
Place Bet Now!
Race 5
(1) Titan’s Will
+800 (8/1)
(2) William Crotty
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Hayne’s Fever
+1000 (10/1)
(4) Factor This In
+450 (9/2)
(5) Bahama Channel
+800 (8/1)
(6) Seize the Day
+2000 (20/1)
(7) Military Hop
+140 (7/5)
(8) Lost My Vowcher
+1000 (10/1)
(9) Amen Corner
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 2:25 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse:$30,000

Race 5 covers 1 1/16 miles for a $30,000 purse on the dirt. Factor This In and Military Hop should be in the mix for a win.

Factor This In most recently won on September 29. He defeated Ty Ran a homer by 2 ¼ lengths for a $26,000 purse.

Since then, Factor This In has finished 2nd, 6th, 7th in three events. In his latest race, he finished 7th on February 7 in a $28,000 assignment.

Military Hop is coming off a hat-trick and looking for more. He is coming off a too easy 5 length win for $33,300 on January 28.

Before that win, Military Hop cashed by 2 lengths on January 5. If Military Hop arrives in proper form, he is going to have the best chance of getting in.
The Bet
(7) MILITARY HOP
+140
Place Bet Now!
Race 6
(1) Dats a Superstar
+800 (8/1)
(2) Shes So Cool
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Feel the Glory
+2000 (20/1)
(4) Good Story
+3000 (30/1)
(5) If Then
+1000 (10/1)
(6) Embrace the Whinny
+600 (6/1)
(7) Martharita
+800 (8/1)
(8) California Bella
+140 (7/5)
(9) Magic In Me
+500 (5/1)

Post Time: 2:55 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$37,800

Race 6 covers 6 furlongs on the dirt for a $37,800 purse. Give Embrace the Whinny and California Bella a strong look in this one.

Embrace the Whinny is looking for a good start and has produced some solid work in the morning. She has been timed at 49.80, 50.00, 49.20 seconds at 4 furlongs.

She may need California Bella to struggle, but it should be a good race. California Bella is 2nd, 4th in two races.

California Bella placed 2nd behind Maestria by 4 ¼ lengths in a $38,000 race on her debut. That was good work from California Bella.

The filly finished 4th at Pimlico on August 13 in her next and most recent attempt. That grade was too tough at $45,435. Expect this to be more on her level Friday afternoon.
The Bet
(8) CALIFORNIA BELLA
+140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $44000 Class Rating: 103

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1A MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) 9/5

# 1 ALCOOLS 9/5

# 5 FREE ENTERPRISE 3/1

MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) is tough to overlook as the wager in here. Have to believe this one will do well following the quick turnaround. Could best this field based on the Equibase speed fig - 98 - of his last outing. With a strong 93 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. ALCOOLS - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look very good in this competition. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Rice running at this distance are the most respectable in this group. FREE ENTERPRISE - Has to be given a chance against this group of horses in this race displaying respectable figs lately and an average speed fig of 95 under similar conditions. Englehart has a sound 20 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Laurel - Race #3 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,800 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 MARKET OF STOCKS (ML=5/1)
#5 SISTER SUPREAM (ML=3/1)
#4 HELIACAL RISING (ML=5/2)
#6 BOSS ANGEL (ML=4/1)


MARKET OF STOCKS - Toledo's agent must like anytime Russell gives them a mount; win pct together is outstanding. SISTER SUPREAM - Atop this horse on Jan 28th and Araujo is yet again in the irons this race. This filly should improve after adding Lasix in the last race and getting it again today. HELIACAL RISING - I really like that last effort on January 28th at Laurel where she finished third. I believe this mount will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time, so Gonzalez must have confidence in her. BOSS ANGEL - Rider hops back on after getting to know the fine animal by riding last out. That's always a helpful angle. Can't help but like the second time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. A pretty good sign Gaudet thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,



Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HELIACAL RISING - This filly's superior last speed number of 70, against these horses, makes her the overwhelming choice.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 MARKET OF STOCKS to win if we can get at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 MR. B CAUSE 9/2

# 1 TIME TO MOVE 8/1

# 3 SEARCH ENGINE 9/5

MR. B CAUSE looks very strong to best this field. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figs which have been very strong - 58 avg - of late. Ought to be given a chance for this event if only for the very good Equibase speed fig put up in the last contest. TIME TO MOVE - This colt could improve with second time Lasix. SEARCH ENGINE - With a formidable 63 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. He looks formidable in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park
PURCHASE

02/18/22, SA, Race 1, 1.00 PT
02/18/22,SA,1,1M [Turf] 1:31:03 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since December 18 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, For Each $2,500 To $20,000 2 lbs. (Maiden And Claiming Races For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances). (Rail at 30 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 7 Mylittlerunaway(b+) 6/1 Ramirez R Shidaker Duff JL 51 41.18 1.85/$1
098.7544 6 Gea 5/1 Frey K McCanna Tim FC 157 38.85 1.25/$1
097.5258 2 Sugary 9/5 Rispoli U Wong Jonathan TE 138 42.03 1.38/$1
095.8424 3 Mercy Mercy 5/1 Maldonado E A Hess. Jr. Robert B. 157 38.85 1.25/$1
095.0786 5 A New Peace 8/1 Herrera D A Morfin Sergio SW 138 42.03 1.38/$1
093.8337 4 Miss Flawless (FR) 4/1 Espinoza V Truman Eddie 138 42.03 1.38/$1
090.7096 1 Zabava 5/1 Baze T Knapp Steve 138 42.03 1.38/$1
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 35.29, ROI 0.95/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.2456
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - February 18

TURFWAY PARK TIPS - FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 60% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Under the Couvers	L Machado
PLACE	6-1	8	Hart Well	T Canuto
SHOW	7-2	5	Orb of the Boro	A Jimenez
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Francos Team	J Padron-Barcenas
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Junior Bug	P W Ouzts
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Devilish Tail	E Esquivel
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Magna G Force	G Corrales
PLACE	5-1	3	Jazz Brunch	L Machado
SHOW	7-2	8	Radiantrithym	J E Felix
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Appealing Julia	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Bright Venezuelan	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Go Stellaire	S Leon
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX
RACE #3 $22,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	2	Souper Highvoltage	L Machado
PLACE	5-2	3	Cant Hide From Me	G Corrales
SHOW	20-1	7	Ceduna	R Mojica Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Direct Approach	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Joyful Heart	R Miranda
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	10	Spend Benjamins	J E Felix
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	12	Destined for Honor	A Achard
PLACE	3-1	2	Captain Fantastic	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	8	Randello	F Peterson
WILD CARD	20-1	11	Wheres Lucky	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	10	T J Munnings	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Mr. Biffle	A Jimenez
* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/12 BOX, 2/8/11 BOX
RACE #5 $62,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 HONORABLY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Honorably	J Talamo
PLACE	4-1	3	Blessing the Flag	K Kimura
SHOW	6-1	7	Esperer	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Halaga	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	10	Ankyrah	J E Felix
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Mejthaam	A Jimenez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Dilettante	J D Ramos
PLACE	3-1	3	Dragon Drew	A Jimenez
SHOW	5-2	5	Medal of Fact	E T Baird
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Strong Yen	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Taos	T Canuto
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	6	Onward	J McKee
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $64,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 PALLAS ATHENE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Pallas Athene	G Corrales
PLACE	3-1	2	Rose Harbor	J Talamo
SHOW	4-1	5	Elke Do Jaguarete	K Kimura
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Tiltingatwindmills	S Leon
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Bluegrass Belle	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	6	High Fashion	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 DANCIN DEE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Dancin Dee	C Landeros
PLACE	5-1	5	First Royal	R Miranda
SHOW	6-1	4	Midsummer Nights	S Gonzalez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Krispy Rice	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Pelletier	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Stormy Nile	F Peterson
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX