Saturday 4/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Churchill Downs Hotlist - April 30

April 29, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Saturday, April 30, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (2) Terawatt (B) staged a strong 5-wide rally to finish second. Should atone for that setback here. (3) Haney Boys drops a notch and should be a key contender. (5) Speed Boat could be tough to catch here. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5. Doubles: 2-3-5 with 1-2-7-8.
2nd race – (1) Deano was victorious and should be formidable here off the Diodoro claim. (7) Soul Streit takes a big drop off the Amoss claim and should be a factor. (8) Honey Won’t might respond to a turf to dirt move. (2) My Man Flintstone could have a yabba-dabba-doo time in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-8.
4th race – (6) Ginsburned (D) dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 then rallied mildly with a wide move. May get a winning trip here. (5) Bryce Canyon was a game second last time and should be a main rival. (4) Evan Sing look good in a debut win and merits respect. The (1) entry of Bakwena and Gingrich form a dangerous entry. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-7. Exactas: 1-4-5-6.
6th race – (4) Five Prizes seems to have the pedigree to handle this 10-furlong distance. (5) Inviting should appreciate the added ground. (2) Runaway Wife might prefer this to sprinting. (6) Miss Yearwood should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5. Exactas: 4-5 over 2-6 and 2-6 over 4-5.
8th race – (2) Mamba Wamba (B) was third last time despite a wide trip and should save some ground here. Gets a narrow nod. (12) Riche’s Great Girl looks like the one to fear. (9) Spicy Marg can rebound in this spot. (10) Bay Storm was second in her last two tries and should be in the picture once again. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-8-9-11.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(2)

Terawatt

B, 4/8

1 CD

Was hurt by a wide trip last time

(6)

Ginsburned

D, 4/8

4 CD

Can rebound with a better try here

(2)

Mamba Wamba

B, 4/8

8 CD

Will be a factor in the stretch

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

Hawthorne - Race 4	$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $1 Daily Double
Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:05P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. SIR ACEALOT is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIR ACEALOT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JUST RIGHT MIKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ALPINE GHOST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distan ce/surface.
6	SIR ACEALOT	3/1	7/2
5	JUST RIGHT MIKE	9/5	9/2
4	ALPINE GHOST	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	JUST RIGHT MIKE	5	9/5	Front-runner	81	75	72.2	61.8	57.3
4	ALPINE GHOST	4	6/1	Front-runner	78	65	69.4	61.8	53.3
6	SIR ACEALOT	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	63	54.2	68.2	65.2
3	WHERE'S LUCKY	3	7/2	Trailer	70	70	7.7	39.4	31.9
2	ON THE MUSCLE	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	66	31.8	58.7	53.2
1	DARE GOES DA DEVIL	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	62	29.4	56.2	45.7

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 6	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 6-7) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Pick 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 90 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 9:00P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MR DE CAPI: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DEALALICIOUS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/su rface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LUCKY DICE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. PANHANDLE DYNASTY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SPECIAL APOLLITICAL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	MR DE CAPI	8/1	5/1
2	DEALALICIOUS	4/1	6/1
1	LUCKY DICE	7/2	7/1
5	PANHANDLE DYNASTY	3/1	9/1
8	SPECIAL APOLLITICAL	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LUCKY DICE	1	7/2	Fast	93	85	3.4	0.0	0.0
2	DEALALICIOUS	2	4/1	Fast	88	92	1.0	0.0	0.0
3	HEZA COCO PATA	3	12/1	Average	85	82	5.9	0.0	0.0
4	MR DE CAPI	4	8/1	Fast	90	96	2.1	0.0	0.0
5	PANHANDLE DYNASTY	5	3/1	Fast	86	86	2.6	0.0	0.0
6	LEVERAJ	6	20/1	Average	83	77	5.4	0.0	0.0
7	INSYGHT	7	30/1	Slow	0	0	7.0	0.0	0.0
8	SPECIAL APOLLITICAL	8	5/2	Average	86	86	4.4	0.0	0.0
9	ROC MY HEART	9	30/1	Fast	78	66	3.2	0.0	0.0

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #3 - Post: 5:04pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $90,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#1 RIDER'S SPECIAL (ML=3/1)
#3 BLAME ELI (ML=12/1)
#5 WILDWOOD Z (ML=8/1)


RIDER'S SPECIAL - Have to give this colt a chance. Ran a solid effort last out within the last month. This jockey and handler have a positive return on investment when they work together. PP data show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figures. Castillo should be on a horse ready to go in this race. You have to really like that recent race rating, 92, which is the highest last race rating of this bunch. BLAME ELI - Very often a horse who worked from the gate since his last race, and adds the 'shades' for today's race, shows a big improvement in performance. Don't often see a positive ROI like +334. This jockey/trainer tandem has done well together over the last year. WILDWOOD Z - As the only front runner in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. Lower weight assigned of -5. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this gelding falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MAGNIFICUS (ML=5/2), #7 SPEED BIAS (ML=3/1), #2 RED DEVIL (ML=8/1),

MAGNIFICUS - Pace makes the race and the shortage of pace means this stretch-runner will have to rally without any help. SPEED BIAS - Based on the pace scenario in this race, this horse doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this horse having to race from behind, he sure has a tough assignment. RED DEVIL - The fifth place finish in the last race was not the greatest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 RIDER'S SPECIAL to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 73

FOR ACCREDITED TEXAS BRED) FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 30, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $17,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TEXAS WHIRLWIND 5/2
# 8 TUDELA 5/1
# 3 STAN'S GOLDEN PATH 7/2

TEXAS WHIRLWIND looks to be a decent contender. With a decent 66 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. TUDELA - The duo of Valdezjiminez/Castellanos has one of the top return on investment percentages in this field. Will probably go to the lead and could never look back. STAN'S GOLDEN PATH - Have to bet on this money-making rider and conditioner tandem. Has to be given a chance versus this group of animals displaying very good figs lately and an average speed rating of 53 under similar conditions.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 80

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2020 WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE OLD SOUTH FUTURITY. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $4,000 TO ENTER THE TRIALS PRIOR TO TIME OF ENTRIES CLOSING. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 WON MY HEART 3/1
# 8 RC SHAKENMYCORONA 2/1
# 6 ONE BICYCLE MAN 5/1

My choice for this event is WON MY HEART. Has very good early speed and will probably fare solidly against this group. Her 80 average has this filly with among the strongest speed figures for this event. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (80 average) at today's distance and surface recently. RC SHAKENMYCORONA - He has been racing quite well lately while recording very solid Equibase Speed Figures. Must be given consideration based on the very good speed figure posted in the last race. ONE BICYCLE MAN - Has longshot possibilities and could win at boxcar odds. With a solid return on investment of +41 this conditioner has shown very good results with entries running at this distance and surface.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #4 - Post: 8:54pm - Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 MAC PANDOWDY (ML=6/1)
#4 LONESOME DREAM (ML=4/1)


MAC PANDOWDY - Looking at today's class figure, this racer is encountering an easier bunch than last out at Hawthorne. You have to like that most recent race fig, 79, which is the highest latest race speed rating of this field. LONESOME DREAM - Higgins has this gelding going in the perfect contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RODEO MAN (ML=2/1), #5 CYCLONE ATTACK (ML=3/1), #1 SAFE (ML=9/2),

RODEO MAN - Be particularly concerned about this 3 year old versus the older ones. Will do better with more experience. In any race of 5 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been looking good in short distance races of late. CYCLONE ATTACK - Can't invest in this runner in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race of late. Equibase speed figures of 70/66/21 are pointed the wrong way. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing response on Apr 16th. The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a questionable contender. SAFE - This racer just hasn't looked ready recently. Hard to play this colt today since the event isn't limited to sophomores.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 MAC PANDOWDY on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

04/30/22, BEL, Race 8, 5.01 ET
04/30/22,BEL,8,1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1:38:04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $80,000. INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 127 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs. (If There Are No Three Year Olds Entered, Starting Weight Shall Be 123 lbs). (Rail at 27 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Timbuktu	8/1	Franco M	Cox Brad H.	TEC	183	27.87	1.34/$1
098.7797	6	Mr Breadwinner	8/1	Carmouche K	De Paz Horacio		310	28.71	1.18/$1
098.3124	7	Saratoga Flash	6/1	Davis D	Tagg Barclay		183	27.87	1.34/$1
098.2298	5	Salute to America	10/1	Castellano J	Morley Thomas	L	310	28.71	1.18/$1
098.0133	8	Lord Flintshire	7/2	Ortiz. Jr. I	Abreu Jorge R.	JSF	183	27.87	1.34/$1
098.0110	11	Uncle Curly	5/1	Gomez J A	Walder Peter R.		183	27.87	1.34/$1
097.4380	10	Umbria	3/1	Ortiz J L	Rice Linda		310	28.71	1.18/$1
096.5779	14	Practice Squad	12/1	Carmouche K	Sharp Joe		183	27.87	1.34/$1
096.5355	4	Rally Squirrel	4/1	Rosario J	Maker Michael J.		310	28.71	1.18/$1
095.9869	1	Bohemian Ruby	30/1	Cancel E	Rodriguez Gustavo		310	28.71	1.18/$1
095.9517	15	Mr. Kringle	8/1	McCarthy T	Terranova II John P.		183	27.87	1.34/$1
094.9053	2	Sandro the Great	15/1	Cardenas L	Quick Patrick J.		310	28.71	1.18/$1
093.8733	13	Breadman	6/1	Lezcano J	Terranova II John P.		310	28.71	1.18/$1
093.7398	16	Convertible Freeze	6/1	Rider TBA	Ryerson James T.	W	310	28.71	1.18/$1
092.4383	12	Barleewon(b-)	12/1	Velazquez J R	O'Brien Keith		183	27.87	1.34/$1
088.3276	9	Amedeus Music	20/1	Lezcano J	Ryerson James T.		310	28.71	1.18/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 28.57, ROI 1.00/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.2203
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Not Dirt With Turf Today

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Race of the Week: San Francisco Mile at Golden Gate Fields | Sat.

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April 27, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 3 $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE AT GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

The Lead:
It's the biggest day on the racing calendar in Northern California as the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile tops a Golden Gate Fields card that also boasts the California Derby and Oaks. The San Francisco Mile goes as Race 9 of 12 among a half-dozen stakes races.

Field Depth:
GET HER NUMBER is a G1 winner on dirt, NOLDE a G2 turf victor, RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE and FREEPORT JOE are G3 domestic turf winners, and ECRIVAIN is a French G3 winner on grass. The deep lineup includes several graded stakes-placed sorts like INDIAN PEAK, VANNZY, TIZ PLUS, DELAWARE and 2020 San Fran Mile third-place finisher CAMINO DEL PARAISO. In terms of the consistent class, the foreigner ECRIVAIN may have the strongest argument, followed by DELAWARE and RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE.

Pace:
With 14 turf milers, expect the pace to be brisk into the clubhouse turn with position of such importance. JIMMY BLUE JEANS, TIZ PLUS and GET HER NUMBER appear quickest early, and the latter will have to motor early to compensate for a wide post draw. CAMINO DEL PARAISO should be just off the second flight. The pace should be moderate at worst, and maybe a touch on the quick side.

Our Eyes:
Turf mile races often go to specialists, as much as any division of races in the game. Too many horses are misplaced here because of the crossroads distance between sprint and route. Dirt horses get tossed here as in-betweeners that don't fit just right elsewhere. The true turf milers here in terms of experience and success are TIZ PLUS, DELAWARE, CAMINO DEL PARAISO, RESTRAINEDVEGEANCE and ECRIVAIN. Sort through those 5 of 14 entrants and you'll most likely find the winner. VANZZY kind of hits on the fringes, too, but I prefer some of the aforementioned runners. GET HER NUMBER offers danger upon his best and might end up being a turf miler after trying a bit of everything.

TIZ PLUS and DELAWARE come via SoCal as have the last 4 San Francisco Mile winners. Trainer Paddy Gallagher brought Flambouyant here in 2018 to win and will try to replicate that with DELAWARE, who clearly has faced the stronger company of the SoCal milers discussed here. But between them, they're 1-16 in the winner's circle in 2021-'22 and may be better players for the exotics. NoCaler CAMINO DEL PARAISO has been a bit flat late in his last few starts and that fate did him in when a close third in this race in 2020. You almost expect a similar solid, but unsuccessful outcome.

This should come down to current SoCal residents RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE and ECRIVAIN. The former has had great success in limited turf mile bids, while the latter got the perfect, old-school allowance prep in his first US start. Richard Mandella now has ECRIVAIN loaded for the money race for $250,000.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
RESTRAINED VENGEANCE was third in this race last year, has classy running lines and the mile suits him.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
TIZ PLUS has finished third in his last pair of turf mile stakes bids at 16-1 and 17-1. He'll be a nice number again and could get a share underneath.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win ECRIVAIN.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Diamondbacks +135
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Astros +130
3.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Yankees -1.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
5.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Braves -115
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	MLB – Red Sox -175
7.	Henry Brown Sports	MLB – Rays -1.5
8.	Winning Big Sports	MLB – Astros over 8
9.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Giants -1.5
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Reds under 11
11.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Guardians over 7
12.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Rays -1.5
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Yankees -1.5
14.	SCORE	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Marlins +110
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Red Sox over 8
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Angels +110
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Reds +130
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Cubs +145
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Giants -1.5
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Diamondbacks +135
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Phillies +115
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Rays -1.5
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Yankees over 8.5
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Astros +130

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Diego w/Manaea -172 over Pittsburgh

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: CLEVELAND/OAKLAND OVER the total of 6

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Totals4U

Saturday's Free Selection: New York Yankees/Kansas City Royals over 7 1/2

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#1 Sports

Saturday's Free Play: New York Yankees - 175

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Houston/Toronto Game UNDER 8