Sunday 5/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:17 AM

Declan Schuster's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis for Sunday, May 1, 2022

SHA TIN SELECTIONS

(Sunday, May 01, 2022)

Race 1: #7 Glory Bo Bo, #4 Lucky Banner, #2 Flying Silver, #5 Superb Move
Race 2: #1 Good News, #3 Wonderful Warrior, #10 Cheval Valiant, #2 United We Stand
Race 3: #2 Senor Toba, #3 Enjoying, #1 Butterfield, #4 Looking Great
Race 4: #3 Galaxy Witness, #4 En Pointe, #2 Prince Alex, #1 Winner Method
Race 5: #1 Victory Scholars, #5 Celestial Steed, #8 Shining Fortune, #2 Oriental Smoke
Race 6: #8 Rattan Kingdom, #7 Get The Monies, #2 Massive Action, #1 Beauty Nova
Race 7: #5 Boom Stitch, #7 Accelerando, #10 President’s Choice, #3 Beauty Spirit
Race 8: #2 S J Tourbillon, #1 Rise Brethren, #7 Five G Patch, #5 Intrepid Winner
Race 9: #2 Happy Day, #1 Double Six Pop, #6 General Winner, #3 Kasi Farasi
Race 10: #1 Buzzinga, #3 Packing Treadmill, #4 Brilliant Way, #2 Keefy
Race 11: #12 Sakewin, #1 Drops Of God, #2 Shining Gem, #7 War Weapon

Race 1: The Argonaut Plate

#7 Glory Bo Bo caught the eye at the trials with a stylish effort to cross the line second down the straight under Zac Purton. He appears forward enough to figure prominently here, especially with the Australian taking the mount again. #4 Lucky Banner closed nicely in his trial under Joao Moreira who hops up on race day. He can make a run at this group. #2 Flying Silver shouldn’t look out of place in a tricky opener. #5 Superb Move returns from Conghua. He has claims.

Race 2: Isle Of Man Handicap

#1 Good News has the runs on the board and takes a significant class-edge over rivals here. He’s mixed his form but is a winner already from four starts and looks set to improve having his second run down the Sha Tin straight. #3 Wonderful Warrior scored nicely on debut. He looks well placed to carry on from that effort here under Joao Moreira. #10 Cheval Valiant does a lot right without winning. He’s racing well and is expected to hit the mark again. #2 United We Stand knows what it’s all about. Next best.

Race 3: G3 Queen Mother Memorial Cup Handicap

#2 Senor Toba comes into this race very, very well placed after his fast-closing effort in the BMW Hong Kong Derby last month. He’ll relish the extra ground having placed over this trip at Group 1 level in Australia. One to beat. #3 Enjoying has had his fair share of issues but he’s racing in solid form at the minute. He should be able to stay on over this distance which is an unknown in Hong Kong. #1 Butterfield won this race last year. Strong booking of Zac Purton commands respect. #4 Looking Great has the class. Distance queries remain, however.

Race 4: Inch Arran Handicap

#3 Galaxy Witness is a star on the rise and this contest looks well within his grasp. He’s looking to stretch his unbeaten record to four and from the inside gate he maps to get the dream run throughout. #4 En Pointe is building a handy record with three wins from his last four starts. He remains a threat to the likely favourite Galaxy Witness. #2 Prince Alex stepped out on debut to grab fifth. He did well and is expected to improve off that performance. #1 Winner Method knows what it’s all about. Next best.

Race 5: Manicou Handicap

#1 Victory Scholars is third-up now. He can take a big step forward here, especially as he remains in Class 4. He’s a strong chance for Luke Currie who hops up for trainer David Hall. #5 Celestial Steed did well to finish fourth on debut. He kept on well and is open to improvement. #8 Shining Fortune gets Joao Moreira now after a sound first-up effort in Hong Kong. He has a powerful finish when asked. #2 Oriental Smoke looks like a miler, but he steps back in trip for this where he has performed well also. Don’t discount.

Race 6: Monaveen Handicap (2nd Section)

#8 Rattan Kingdom did well when he was caught behind runners last start. He looks like he’s taken plenty of improvement between runs and from gate two he should get every chance to nail a first win. #7 Get The Monies is on the improve. He’s a nice horse who should relish the added distance. #2 Massive Action is progressing nicely for Frankie Lor. #1 Beauty Nova steps down in grade. This looks a big plus to his chances, especially with Joao Moreira engaged.

Race 7: Special Cargo Handicap

#5 Boom Stitch took a big leap in the right direction last start when closing from the rear to grab sixth. He’s always shown ability and his timing appears right for this contest. #7 Accelerando looks able. Expect he can improve if he takes closer order here in the run under Zac Purton. #10 President’s Choice turned his form around to finish second last time out. He slots in light and is well placed to go one better for Joao Moreira. #3 Beauty Spirit is always around the mark. Gate one ensures his chance.

Race 8: Insular Handicap

#2 S J Tourbillon turned his form around to grab third last time out. He only needs to offset the wide gate here to be a factor which can at times be tricky over the 10 furlongs start. #1 Rise Brethren won well two starts ago. He’s held his condition and looks a threat with Zac Purton sticking aboard. #7 Five G Patch closed well at his latest outing while being crowded in the finish. He’s got ability and with a clean run can figure for trainer Tony Cruz. #5 Intrepid Winner rattled into second last start. He’s next best with a few favours.

Race 9: Monaveen Handicap (1st Section)

#2 Happy Day has a stack of potential and he appears very, very well placed to go back-to-back here. The distance suits and with a clean run home he can storm over the top of this group with his powerful turn-of-foot. #1 Double Six Pop has more ability than his record lets on. He gets down in grade which is ought to spark sharp improvement. #6 General Winner has done well this season with numerous close-up efforts. Strong booking of Zac Purton suggests he’s in top condition. #3 Kasi Farasi has improved down in grade. This is suitable again for him, especially with the three-pound claim in use.

Race 10: Game Spirit Handicap (1st Section)

#1 Buzzinga has swept all before him across two starts in Hong Kong. He’s a serious talent on the rise and he remains in Class 3 which suits. #3 Packing Treadmill was crowded for room when it counted after doing a stack of work on the speed last start. He can bounce back. #4 Brilliant Way is racing well. He kept on gamely behind Buzzinga last start and he’s always thereabouts. #2 Keefy steps out on debut. He caught the eye in a trial and brings strong Australian form to Hong Kong. Must respect.

Race 11: Game Spirit Handicap (2nd Section)

#12 Sakewin turned heads with an impressive first-up win from the wide gate. He looks to have a serious future and this contest is ideal with the light weight, good gate and Joao Moreira engaged. #1 Drops Of God mixes his form but has found a nice rating. Expect he uses the gate to try and control this race. #2 Shining Gem is racing well. He’s hit form and remains a threat. #7 War Weapon is better than his record suggests. Strong booking of Vincent Ho indicates that he could bounce out of the ground.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:32 AM

Belmont Park Picks: Clement uncoupled tough to beat on May 1
By J.N. Campbell

Belmont Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-2-3
Race 2: 5-2-4-1
Race 3: 1-3-5-4
Race 4: 8-5-9-2
Race 5: 8-3-1A-9
Race 6: 7-3-6-4
Race 7: 2-1/1A-7-5
Race 8: 4-3-2-6
Race 9: 1-9-10-4
**Most Likely: Sahlabiya #8 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Tide Of The Sea #8 (Race 5)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Sahlabiya #8, 2/1):

It is time for the Flavien Prat Show to officially come to NYRA. The celebrated jockey has taken flight from SoCal, and after setting records there, now comes east. He is going to find a burgeoning colony that is highly-competitive. Looking for a sound day, before he returns to Churchill for Derby Week, I think this young filly is the one to play. Sure, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is a “firster,” but lest we forget … this is Chad Brown and Shadwell Stable we are talking about here. The bloodlines, the numbers, and the turf are all there. Possibly, others will take money (uncoupled entry for Brown), and that will push this filly towards 3/1. Hope springs eternal on the American tote board … the late-money problem.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #8

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Tide of the Sea #8, 20/1):

In a distance contest on the turf going 1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:32 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita, and Belmont Park for May 1, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s round out the week in a good way today. For the free pick 4, we will head to Belmont Park for the late sequence on the card. We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Belmont Park:

Belmont Park May 1, 2022

Race 6: Claiming

#4 Kerik can win in this spot if she can bounce back from a poor effort last time out. The field looks a bit weaker than what she has been facing. #2 Amity Island runs for Linda Rice for the first time in this spot, which should lead to an improved performance. This one looks to be completely wide open.

Race 7: Allowance
freestar

#3 Anejo moves back to the dirf for this race, while also making his second start off of the layoff. Look for this horse to take a nice step forward. #7 Pineapple Man has run well in his last two starts, breaking his maiden two starts back, before running a solid second at this level last time out.

Race 8: Lisense Fee Stakes

#2 Too Sexy gets her year started today after going four for eight last season against some tougher stakes horses. This is a good spot for her to get the year started. #3 Miss J McKay has shown good form this season, while getting back to the turf should help in this spot after running on the synthetic last time out.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight

#1 Urban Forest has a nice speed figure edge over this group; however, has missed on several chances to get the job done in the past. #10 Devils Outlaw will debut in the United States today, while also running on the turf for the first time. He has Chad Brown on his side, which is obviously a good thing.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 2,4,5,6,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 2,3 / 1,10 – $40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:33 AM

Belmont Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-2-3
Race 2: 5-2-4-1
Race 3: 1-3-5-4
Race 4: 8-5-9-2
Race 5: 8-3-1A-9
Race 6: 7-3-6-4
Race 7: 2-1/1A-7-5
Race 8: 4-3-2-6
Race 9: 1-9-10-4
**Most Likely: Sahlabiya #8 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Tide Of The Sea #8 (Race 5)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:33 AM

Lone Star Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-2-8
Race 2: 3-2-5-1
Race 3: 7-4-8-1
Race 4: 2-4-1-3
Race 5: 10-8-11-3
Race 6: 3-4-6-2
Race 7: 10-5-4-2
Race 8: 11-4-1-3
Race 9: 6-3-8-1
**Most Likely: Sams Time #3 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Robber Baron #10 (Race 5)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:33 AM

Mountaineer Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 4-8-3-10
Race 2: 5-3-4-8
Race 3: 8-3-5-6
Race 4: 5-3-2-8
Race 5: 4-2-6-5
Race 6: 1-6-3-2
Race 7: 2-6-5-1
Race 8: 4-2-7-5
**Most Likely Winner: Hunter Scott (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Escape Velocity (Race 7)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:33 AM

Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 7-4-6-5
Race 2: 10-7-9-2
Race 3: 5-2-1-6
Race 4: 3-8-2-9
Race 5: 3-6-2-8
Race 6: 9-6-12-11
Race 7: 5-6-3-8
Race 8: 5-7-6-4
Race 9: 4-10-1-3
**Most Likely: Home Run Trick #3 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Proud Foot #3 (Race 5)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:34 AM

Santa Anita Park Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 4-3-8-2
Race 2: 4-2-1-6
Race 3: 3-2-7-1
Race 4: 2-7-5-8
Race 5: 10-8-4-9
Race 6: 5-4-6-2
Race 7: 11-6-4-9
Race 8: 8-4-11-7
Race 9: 2-10-11-5
**Most Likely: Settecento (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Tom Bombadil (Race 2)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:34 AM

Woodbine Picks - Sunday, May 1, 2022

Race 1: 3-6-1-2
Race 2: 8-5-1-2
Race 3: 1-3-2-5
Race 4: 9-2-10-1
Race 5: 6-3-4-7
Race 6: 6-2-9-3
Race 7: 4-2-1-8
Race 8: 3-9-5-1
Race 9: 7-4-1-8
Race 10: 4-11-6-8
**Most Likely Winner: Hall Of Dreams (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Hell Bent (Race 10)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:34 AM

Belmont Horses in Focus for Sunday, May 1
Posted on April 30, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 1: RIA’S ANGEL (#3)

#2 Colloquy is obviously the horse to beat off his runner-up finish at this level last time, in which he earned a field-best 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The slight stretch-out in distance appeared to work for this son of Flatter, who was more engaged early than he had been in his career debut. I thought he hung in the late stages last time after appearing to have dead aim at the winner, but his rider Dylan Davis did drop the whip in upper stretch. Colloquy may be too tough for this field to handle if he takes another step forward, but he’s going to be an awfully short price and there are some others in this field with upside. #1 Curlin’s Wisdom could go off as the second choice after rallying for third going a mile in the slop last time. I thought he ran better than the result might indicate that day, as the race was dominated towards the front end, and he overcame poor early position. He’s caught three wet tracks in a row and may finally get back on a fast surface here. He’s also switching into the Linda Rice barn, though I’m not sure that’s a negative given the recent cold streak for that stable. My top pick is #3 Ria’s Angel. He’s made two of his four starts against maiden claimers, but has run some fast races. He was arguably best in his career debut when he blew the start and made a wide run over a rail-biased surface. He didn’t fare as well in maiden special weight company after that, but he was facing some pretty strong rivals in those spots. Distance is obviously the major question mark, but progeny of Upstart win a strong 18% of their dirt route attempts. It also feels like this horse might have been claimed by Horacio De Paz with the stretch-out in mind. He certainly is a determined finisher, so I’m optimistic that he can handle the step up in trip.

RACE 5: SANCTUARY CITY (#3)

If #2 Soldier Rising is ready to fire off the bench, he is clearly the most likely winner. However, he’s still searching for his first victory in the U.S. and this is a pretty salty optional claiming field. This gelding did run well in all of his starts in this country last year. He got great trips in the Saratoga and Jockey Club Derbies but wasn’t as fortunate in the Hill Prince when he got no pace ahead of him and was forced to make a wide run. He closed out his campaign with a career-best effort against older horses in the G2 Red Smith, flying late to just miss. With routine improvement as a 4-year-old, this could be the stepping stone to graded stakes success. However, Christophe Clement is a mediocre 13 for 80 (16%, $1.40 ROI) off 120-240 day layoffs in turf routes at NYRA over the past 5 years. This horse also lacks any early speed and there’s not that much pace signed on in this 10-furlong affair. #3 Sanctuary City finished behind Soldier Rising when they met in the Red Smith last year, but the three-turn, 11-furlong trip of that race was probably too demanding for this James Ferraro trainee. He was also trying to rally inside that day when it seemed like the best running was being down out in the center of the course. This horse rarely takes much money despite the fact that he’s earned a strong set of speed figures over the past year. I like that he got a prep under his belt at Aqueduct so he figures to be fit for this stretch-out to 1 1/4 miles over his favorite track. He probably isn’t as naturally talented as Soldier Rising, but the expected disparity in price between the two makes Sanctuary City more appealing. I considered some others like #1A Box N Score, though his last victory may have been enhanced by yielding ground. #9 Slicked Back can also improve, but he wasn’t quite as good as Soldier Rising last year.

RACE 9: STREET FIGHT (#2)

I suppose #10 Devil’s Outlaw will attract plenty of support in this finale as he returns from a layoff and makes his first start for the Chad Brown barn. This will also mark his turf debut, as all of his prior starts came over all-weather going in Ireland. While he did run well in a few of those overseas starts, he appears to be a horse that has quite a bit of hang in him. He got winning trips in a few of those races and just seemed all too willing to let rivals pass him in the lane. He’s bred to be a good one, as a half-brother to Brown’s Grade 1 turf winner Competitionofideas. However, there are some younger rivals with upside in this field, so I don’t want to just default to these connections at a short price. I have similar feelings about #1 Urban Forest, who is among the most experienced members of this field. His turf races have been pretty good, but he’s never run a particularly fast speed figure. I do like the turnback in distance for him, but it’s not as if he was meeting particularly tough fields when he ran well at Aqueduct last fall. There are a couple of runner from lower profile barns that I find more intriguing. One of those is #9 Smoke and Heat, who makes his turf debut for Tony Dutrow. This horse has plenty of pedigree to handle the surface being by Street Boss out of a turf-winning dam who has also produced a turf winner by Tonalist. This horse ran on well in his dirt sprint debut, but was striding out like a horse that should have no problem transferring his form to turf. My top pick is another son of Street Boss. #2 Street Fight made two starts on grass last year, and I thought he ran pretty well each time. He was facing a decent field when he made his turf debut last summer at Saratoga, and he stayed on well after contesting the pace. He subsequently finished third by over 6 lengths in his only other turf start at Monmouth. However, that was an unusually strong field for that venue. Winner Unanimous Consent is now a stakes winner and still undefeated in 3 starts, while runner-up There Are No Words returned to break his maiden by over 10 lengths. This horse is on the smaller side, and will probably appreciate the slight turnback to 7 furlongs. He also goes out for a barn that hasn’t yet started any runners this year, so he figures to fly under the radar.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Herald Business Sunday Seoul & Busan: Race-By-Race Preview (May 1)

The opening leg of the Stayer Series is the feature race on the opening day of May. See here for a full preview. There are 11 races at Seoul from 10:45 to 18:00 and 6 at Busan From 12:00 to 16:45. Here are the previews:

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

It is perhaps safe to assume that a future Korea Cup winner will not emerge from this opening contest. Something has to cross the line first, though. It might be (4) CUPID BELLE. She has the least slow time among those who have previously tackled the distance, recorded when 7th on March 26th. That was an improvement on her opening two appearances, and she won’t need to improve very much more to win this. (2) HAENGBOK YEOWANG finished in 8th place in the same race. It was an improvement of sorts and again, it won’t take much development to get closer here. (5) THAT’S MY GIRL has a pair of 6th place finishes from her latest two, leading in one of them at 1400M. She may get an easy lead here and it’s possible she could hold it the entire way. (8) NAMSAN BYTE was a slow 7th on debut but did at least show on the front. The drop in trip may help. Given the standard of the race, a chance must be given to the first-timers. (10) HEEMANG WARRIOR perhaps is the more likely of the three.
Selections (4) Cupid Belle (2) Haengbok Yeowang (5) That’s My Girl (8) Namsan Byte
Next Best 10, 1
Fast Start 4, 5, 7, 8

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

More three-year-old maidens and it’s hard to look too far past (9) TRIPLE JOY. While it took him three attempts to qualify, he looked the part on debut, coming from well back to run 3rd over this distance on a wet track on March 19th. With some natural improvement from that run, he will take some beating. (2) DONGBANGUI HON has been improving across her latest two at 1300M. She draws nicely again and can be in the mix here. (3) HIGH PARK ran an improved 2nd in an all-filly race at this distance on April 2nd when handy throughout. She will be on pace again and has claims. Also on pace will be (1) HWIPARAM. She weakened at her latest outing but had previously hinted at ability and can be given another chance here. (10) DISCO BOY is another with potential to go better.
Selections (9) Triple Joy (2) Dongbangui Hon (3) High Park (1) Hwiparam
Next Best 10, 6
Fast Start 1, 3, 8, 9

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

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Tricky maiden this. On the strength of her latest outing, (10) LOST WAR has to go on top. She led for almost the entire way around at this distance, ultimately finishing a close 2nd in a good time. She comes down 3kg in the weights with an apprentice being engaged today and while the draw isn’t quite as favourable, she should be able to find the lead and can win. She is though thirteen starts for no wins. (1) BICHUI DAERYUK has a few less defeats behind her and ran a fair time for the distance when 6th last time out. Nicely drawn on the inside, she will be challenging for the early lead and has claims. (2) QUEEN LION was a good 3rd at this trip three starts back. She can settle handy here and has the fastest final furlong average time of any of these which should out her in good stead to challenge. (4) BITNANEUN JILJU and (5) EUNHYE DREAM among others in placing contention.
Selections (10) Lost War (1) Bichui Daeryuk (2) Queen Lion (4) Bitnaneun Jilju
Next Best 5, 11
Fast Start 1, 2, 5, 10

Busan Race 1: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(10) FUSAICHI put in a solid effort on debut on March 11th, settling in midfield and then running on well for 3rd place over 1200M. The slight step up in trip can suit, and she looks the one to beat here. (3) ETTEUMI comes back in trip following bit of a chastening time around a mile at his latest start. He has previously put in a couple of decent efforts over today’s distance though and can be considered for improvement here. (9) BABEL PHOENX has two 3rd places among three starts so far, including last time out over 1200M. He can sit midfield or better here and finish off strongly with another place finish a more than realistic aim. (11) DONGBU STAR and (1) WIND WINNER are others who can aim for at least the places.
Selections (10) Fusaichi (3) Etteumi (9) Babel Phoenix (11) Dongbu Star
Next Best 1, 2
Fast Start 2, 7, 8, 10

Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(9) NAMSAN KKOT comes up in trip here having run well in her second start on March 27th, which came a full five months after her first. She went right back that day, running on well for 4th and the additional half furlong may well suit with the wide draw not set to be a problem. The probable favourite is (3) K N SKETCH. He stepped up to this trip on her most recent start on March 26th and ran a good 5th, setting the fastest time among these for the distance in the process. She can settle midfield here and challenge late on. (1) HONEY PUNCH came from well back to score her second consecutive 3rd place finish on March 27th. It was at this distance and in a good time on a wet track. From the inside gate, Moon Seung-hyeok can pick his spot and she can go close. (10) BLACK INDY and (5) SWEET KAKAO others in the placing hunt.
Selections (9) Namsan Kkot (3) K N Sketch (1) Honey Punch (10) Black Indy
Next Best 5, 2
Fast Start 4, 5, 6, 10

Busan Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(1) BURNING PASSION ran a good 3rd on debut over this distance on March 18th when she sat handy throughout and finished off very well. She gets a great draw here, Perovic climbs aboard, and she has every chance of winning. (3) HANEUL JILJU improved at start number two on March 27th when leading in the early stages and ultimately finishing in 4th place at this distance. Expect her to be challenging for the lead again and to be in this a long way. (5) JOSEPHINE QUEEN has been consistent across her three outings to date with a best finish of 2nd at 1300M. She is another who can sit on pace or handy and should be in the finish again here. There are two first-time starters, and both (7) GLOBAL CATCHER and (9) TAP STAR performed well enough in their respective trials to suggest they can be given a chance first-up.
Selections (1) Burning Passion (3) Haneul Jilju (5) Josephine Queen (7) Global Catcher
Next Best 9, 4
Fast Start 1, 3, 5, 8

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Fillies and mares only here. (2) CONCORD QUEEN was an emphatic all the way winner over 1300M in a fast time on a wet track at start number four on March 20th. She comes up in class and in distance here, but the manner of that win suggests she can measure up. (3) COSMO also comes up in class and distance, in her case following a similarly emphatic victory over 1200M on March 26th. She too will be set to get on pace and the two of them can be dueling most of the way around here. (1) INVICTUS was a visually impressive winner on April 2nd. That followed her finally seeming to figure things out the start before and while she will need to be faster at this class, she draws very well and can be a factor. (6) SONGAM PLAYER is yet to win in thirteen attempts, but she has the fastest time among those who have tackled the distance and she will be coming from off the pace. If the others go too quick, she can pick plenty off. (9) BESTYA another in the frame.
Selections (2) Concord Queen (3) Cosmo (1) Invictus (6) Songam Player
Next Best 9, 11
Fast Start 2, 3, 8, 12

Busan Race 3: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

(5) INDIE MAGIC comes up in class having registered his maiden win at start number four over this distance on April 10th when he overcame a wide draw to sit behind the speed and then ran on very pleasingly. He gets a better gate today, the weight remains fair, and has every chance of winning again. (6) OCEAN STORM is yet to win in five attempts but has three runner-up finishes to his name, two of them at this distance. An on-pace type, he comes back in trip today and should be firmly in the mix. (10) SEOGWI PLUS got promoted to this level by finishing 2nd on both his first two starts, both over 1000M. He has run fairly for 6th and 5th in two subsequent tries at this class and looks able to go better in this company. (2) BAEK GU comes up in class after a good win over 1300M in which she led for most of the way around. That win had been coming and she is nicely drawn and weighted here. (12) CHEONGMA POWER another who can go close.
Selections (5) Indie Magic (6) Ocean Storm (10) Seogwi Plus (2) Baek Gu
Next Best 12, 1
Fast Start 3, 4, 6, 10

Seoul Race 6: Class 5 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

Apart from his solitary win. (2) STORM WARRIOR has never finished any better than 4th but that’s something he has done in each of latest three outings, all of them at this class and distance. He has run fair times and while he is a thoroughly unspectacular type, in this company, he may have enough to win. (1) CLOUTER comes up in class despite being a seventeen-start maiden, but he looks nicely in here. He actually has the joint-fastest time among any of these at the distance, and from a nice draw on the inside, could provide some each-way value. (10) TAEYANGTAGO was a surprise class and distance winner two starts back and while she couldn’t follow up in reappearance at the end of March, she carries a very light weight again and could be in the mix. (12) ACE SHINE and (9) HOLIDAY CHARM are others in the placing hunt.
Selections (2) Storm Warrior (1) Clouter (10) Taeyangtago (12) Ace Shine
Next Best 9, 5
Fast Start 5, 8, 9, 11

Busan Race 4: Class 4 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

A tough race but (6) BULMYEORUI GIL is a worthy top pick. He was a winner at this class and distance in a good time and beat a few of these on his way to 2nd at his latest start. He is well suited under the set weight conditions and can settle midfield and run on here. (7) FLYING THE CHAMP comes in here following successive wins over 1300M and last 1400M. That brings him rapidly up in both class and distance, but he gives every indication that neither should be too problematic. Last time out he settled midfield and ran on wide for a good win and he can measure up today. (5) CATCH THE SKY was a winner at this distance at class 5 level then a solid 2nd on his first try at this level over a mile when he settled back and ran on. He has claims here. (1) YEONGWON POWER meets Bulmyeorui Gil worse at the weights here than on their meeting on February 25th but he has a nice draw to offset that somewhat and he likes to race forward which favours him. (8) SINJIN GANGHO among others it would be no surprise to see placing.
Selections (6) Bulmyeorui Gil (7) Flying The Champ (5) Catch The Sky (1) Yeongwon Power
Next Best 8, 4
Fast Start 1, 2, 4, 10

Seoul Race 7: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

(6) RIVER TAEYANG comes up in class following a maiden win at start number three over this distance on March 19th when he settles midfield early and steadily improved, striking the front just over a furlong out and running on. The time was good although it was assisted by a wet track and while this is tougher, he comes down slightly in the weight and draws a better gate. He can repeat. (3) COMPLETE STAR is the logical danger. While she has only won once out of eleven, she has seven top-three finishes and comes in off a strong 3rd place at this class over 1300M on March 26th. She will be expected to be on pace here and could go all the way. (12) TROTTING RILEY was something of a revelation when making all to win on debut at this distance on April 3rd. Up in class and drawn wide, this is harder, but he has potential. So too (4) CONCORDE SPURT who is similarly up in class, in his case having won at this distance on a muddy track on March 20th. That win had been coming and he is another who can measure up. (1) DREAM YEOWANG among a number of others capable of at least placing.
Selections (6) River Taeyang (3) Complete Star (12) Trotting Riley (4) Concorde Spurt
Next Best 1, 9
Fast Start 3, 5, 9, 12

Busan Race 5: Class 3 (1600M) Allowance / KRW 75 Million

(6) UNJU EUTTEUM will be favourite here having won three of his last four starts of his last 4 starts, most recently registering an easy victory in the Selangor Turf Club Trophy, when he led. He is well suited at the weights and can continue his merry way today. (12) HANEUL ULLIM has more recently been running over further; however, he is a prolific winner and has struck twice at a mile already. He is happy settling midfield so the wide draw isn’t a problem, and he will be running on. (8) PINEUI KKUM comes into this race on the back of a good 3rd in the CHIA Trophy over this distance when he was slowly away before settling last and then swinging wide in the straight but still running on very strongly. With a smoother trip, he is worth some thought. (7) TRUE VALOR is resuming here after a long layoff, however, his prior form was solid and if forward, could run a place. Draw a line through the latest from (3) ECOPIA and she too is worth an each-way chance here.
Selections (6) Unju Eutteum (12) Haneul Ullim (8) Pineui Kkum (7) True Valor
Next Best 3, 9
Fast Start 3, 6, 7, 10

Seoul Race 8: Class Open (2000M) Herald Business (Listed) Alllowance / KRW 300 Million

Part of the “Stayer Series”. (7) WINNER’S MAN won the 2021 Korean Derby at this track and while he was then beaten in the Minister’s Cup, he was a winner on his only start so far this year which came over this distance at Busan on March 13th. He draws nicely, gets some weight from rivals and has every chance. (8) MOONHAK CHIEF is a Korea Cup and Grand Prix Stakes winner and while he is carrying 59kg, shouldn’t be ruled out. At his latest start, he led under 60kg, ultimately running 2nd to Simjangui Godong and he will be better suited under today’s non-handicap conditions. He’ll be handy in the run and could win. (11) HEUK JEONSA is a three-time class 1 winner over 1800M and has been placed in his latest two starts at this distance. He is not favoured at the weights but can run a big race, nonetheless. (6) BOLT MAN is the lowest rated in the race but has been prolific at the lower levels and while his wins haven’t been by huge margins, he has run good times. He comes out to 2000M, but he runs on in his races, he draws nicely and is down in the weights and could be an each-way prospect here. (4) JEONGMUN SAI among several other high-class entrants in the race.
Selections (7) Winner’s Man (8) Moonhak Chief (11) Heuk Jeonsa (6) Bolt Man
Next Best 4, 9
Fast Start 1, 3, 4, 7

Busan Race 6: Class 1 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 110 Million

(4) DAEMANGUI GIL has been in peak form of late with a win two starts back over 1200M at this class when running on from midfield and then a fair 3rd at this class and distance on March 27th when beating plenty of today’s rivals. He was handy and then wide in the straight that day and has won twice at lower levels over today’s distance. He’s set for a big show. (7) SUCCESS PARTY is up in class here on a last start 2nd over this distance. He gest a big drop in weight and is drawn well enough in this small field to get to his favoured on-pace position. He should measure up in this company. (1) SSONSAL may have gone a little cold in his latest two, but he remains a talented chap and while he was beaten by a few of these on March 27th, a return to form shouldn’t be ruled out. (2) QUEEN OF THE WORLD has solid form coming into the race. She won at this distance at class 2 level in January, before finishing 4th behind Success Party at this distance and then 3rd over 1800M in the TCK Trophy. She is up in class here but has at least placing chances. (5) BRAVE KINGDOM another with placing hopes.
Selections (4) Daemangui Gil (7) Success Party (1) Ssonsal (2) Queen Of The World
Next Best 5, 3
Fast Start 1, 3, 7, 9

Seoul Race 9: Class 4 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

(3) RAON THE ARIA has raced just four times and she comes up rapidly in class having won her latest two with the most recent being her first try at 1200M when she sat just behind the leaders and then ran on well. The time wasn’t fast, but it was a slow track. She is up in class here but comes down in weight, she should be on pace, and she can measure up. (11) YUKWAEHAN NALDEUL will be the favourite. He was a winner at this distance two starts back and on his only outing at this class, ran a good 2nd, again at this distance on March 26th when he beat several of today’s rivals. He drew even wider that day, so the draw isn’t too much of a concern, and he has solid claims. (12) FIGHTING DADDY was a winner at class and distance in February and can have his latest start disregarded when he was hampered by a fallen horse. He faces the challenge of a wide barrier, but he is down in the weights and has won up to 1400M so expect him to be strong in the straight. (6) GREAT THUNDER showed a return to form last start when a good 2nd at class and distance. He does come up in the weights but should be competitive. From a better gate, (2) GANGSEO PRINCESS can improve on her latest.
Selections (3) Raon The Aria (11) Yukwaehan Naldeul (12) Fighting Daddy (6) Great Thunder
Next Best 2, 4
Fast Start 5, 7, 11, 12

Seoul Race 10: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

A competitive race here. We’ll side with (2) HEUNGHAENG DAEBAK, who has won twice and finished 2nd twice in five starts. At his latest over 1300M on April 3rd, he was a little slow away but quickly got up to track the leader, who unfortunately went amiss in the straight, leaving him with the win. Regardless of the circumstances, the run was full of merit and while up in class, he is down in weight, he draws well, and he can win. (6) GRACE QUEEN is a mare who has been most competitive at this class and was a last start winner at this distance. She is up a little bit in the weight but not so much as to take her out of contention. (1) FOX POWER has been running well over the 1400M with one win and a last start 2nd at this class and distance. Today he gets a nice draw which can allow him to race handy and not overly wide which should put him in the mix. (10) BYEOLBIT BOSEOK comes up in class here but very much down in weight on his win at 1200M on March 6th. He comes back out to 1400M today and can be competitive. (12) FOREVER ONE another in the hunt.
Selections (2) Heunghaeng Daebak (6) Grace Queen (1) Fox Power (10) Byeolbit Boseok
Next Best 12, 4
Fast Start 2, 3, 7, 12

Seoul Race 11: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

Plenty of good ones here but it’s hard to look past (12) DONGJIN CHOEGANG. A winner of four from nine so far, he comes in following a super win at this distance on March 20th in a very fast time when he sat handy and ran on. With today’s race being a handicap, he actually comes down slightly in weight and despite the wide draw, he can win again. (2) M J BEST was 2nd in that race, overcoming the widest gate. His draw is much better today, and he comes down even further in the weights under the handicap scale and should be in the hunt again. (1) NAMSAN SIDAE races for the first time since winning at this distance at class 4 level in December. He draws nicely, is down in weight and trialed very nicely two weeks ago. (6) RAON BEAT has done most of his recent work at further but has placed in both starts at this class and should be there or thereabouts again. (8) JANGSAN LASER another who surely goes close.
Selections (12) Dongjin Choegang (2) M J Best (1) Namsan Sidae (6) Raon Beat
Next Best 8, 11
Fast Start 2, 4, 7, 12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Sunday, May 1st 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
OAKLAWN PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 5:04 PM EST
PICK: BET #5 Com’ On Sweet Luv 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

May 1, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

It is closing night at Cal Expo and that means mandatory payouts in all pools. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

4-Allmyx'sliventexas (7/5)-Threw a clunker in last but this is a soft bunch except for #6. Don't see the need to be used hard off the gate and should bounce back with a big try.
6-Chase The Gold (9/5)-Has cashed 2nd place checks in the last 2 after winning 9 straight. Could start a new steak if brings his best effort tonight.

Race 6

3-Imma Tank (6-1)-Drops to spot to shine and should offer a solid price. Stewart needs to work a smooth trip and keep the 9-year-old near the top of the stack.
5-Albergo Hanover (2-1)-Program chalk drops in search of the 1st win of the year (0-10). Lackey should have his own pupil rolling hard down the stretch.

Race 7

5-Bunkerhill Bill (9/2)-Faded down the lane when bumped up to this class last week. Draws well, beat 2 from this field in last and the price should be right to take a swing.
6-Cowboy Dirtyboots (6-1)-Has had excuses in the last few and will need a good steer here. This barn has been cold but will look for a price again and play against the program chalk #1.

Race 8

1-Raider Rose (8/5)-Comes off a nice win, took control early on and didn't look back. Loses Plano but Grundy should have this mare forwardly placed throughout.
4-Snoah (9/2)-Steps-up off a sharp win and takes on some older foes but was Svendsen's choice over #6. Will look for another top effort from this Johnson trainee and best to not overlook.

0.20 Pick 4

4,6/3,5/5,6/1,4
Total Bet=$3.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2022, 08:36 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 5/1/22

May 1, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Lone Scout; 4-Flintmore

Forecast: Lone Scout has been away since October but if he returns as well as he left he can beat this modest maiden field. The Tonalist gelding is strong on speed figures and has worked well enough to be fit for a major effort off the bench. As an eight-race maiden, he can’t be called trustworthy, but this is the easiest bunch on turf he’s ever faced. Flintmore is one of six exiting the same race (won by Beef Winslow) and finished ahead of the others when winding up second. He’s a one-paced type that should produce a forward move in his first try at nine furlongs.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Catbernay; 2-Rantanen; 6-Big Scott Daddy

Forecast: Catbernay makes his first start since August after being a voided claim and then being turned out. A perfect one-for-one sprinting over the Santa Anita main track, the G. Stute-trained gelding has plenty of zip and, assuming he still has most of his old speed, should be able to clear the field from his rail post position. The work tab looks promising and should have him plenty fit. Rantanen, a willing runner-up in his first start in 18 months, drops sharply in class off that promising run in an indication that his connections don’t view him as a long-term prospect. If he has one good one left, the R. B. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding will be hard to beat, but that may be a big if. Big Scott Daddy, a first-off-the-claim play for J. Wong (26%), is re-equipped with blinkers and could be the most dangerous of the late threats. We’ll try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play in a race that should be handled with care.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Big Beauty; 3-All Dialed In

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Big Beauty has been away for nearly a year and returns for new trainer J. Sadler with a series of Los Alamitos workouts that should have her fit enough. Effective sprinting or routing and with a prior win over the local turf course, the daughter of Mr. Big picks up the barn’s main guy J. J. Hernandez and goes for a trainer that boasts superior stats with layoff runners. She’s clearly the top pick. All Dialed In tries grass for the first time and if she can duplicate her dirt form on the lawn she’ll will be quite dangerous. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, the S. McCarthy-trained filly has finished in the money in all five starts and should at least get a piece of it again today.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Settecento

Forecast: Settecento has very little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming middle distance main track event and if it’s not him, it could be anybody, so let’s take a stand and make the lightly-raced gelding a win play and rolling exotic single. Runner-up in his debut at this level but then raised in class in his next two outings, the son of Congrats returns to the main track and beats this group with a repeat of any of his three career outings. On pure numbers, he’s a stick out.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-With This Vow

Forecast: Here’s the second logical single on the program. With This Vow earned a career top number when an excellent runner-up against a similar group at this distance on the main track. Today she switches back to the lawn, and both of her grass outings were solid, so we doubt the surface switch will matter and in fact it might help. In a race lacking in closers, the daughter of Broken Vow should be forwardly placed throughout and then be able to kick home when called upon.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Manitowish

Forecast: Manitowish won a waiver protected $16,000 claiming sprint in late March in strong fashion while earning a speed figure that is considerably stronger than par and one that is good enough to beat this tougher restricted (nw-3) $20,000 field. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has a good stalking style and the ability to produce a second move when set down, so with J. Hernandez riding him back and a bullet workout (:46.4h) at San Luis Rey Downs since raced the son of Carpe Diem looks solid. He’s our third consecutive win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 11-Split the Double; 8-Red Diamond

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the seventh race, a slalom event for first-level allowance fillies and mares. Split the Double looks intriguing. She shows the always-popular route-to-sprint angle and a preference for sprint races, so we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained filly to settle in the second flight outside and then explode crossing the dirt track. The English-bred filly is strong in the speed figure department, shows a healthy work tab for her first outing since mid-March, and catches a pace flow that should allow J. J. Hernandez to pick a preferred position during the early stages. Red Diamond is a tad slower on numbers than Split the Double but is improving with experience and appears set to produce another forward move after finishing a solid second in a similar affair over the flat course. The bulk of our action will go to Split the Double, but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 10-Dick Best; 5-Bag’s Gold

Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for California-bred runners looks borderline inscrutable, so the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. For small ticket players, you can try to survive and advance using just the two listed above. Dick Best Bag’s Gold didn’t run badly in his debut when a willing third at this level last month. He adds Lasix and can be expected to be fitter and stronger with that race behind him. Look for him to be doing his best work from off the pace.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 9-Eddie’s New Dream; 5-Keyflower; 3-Canoodling

Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream has made a lucrative living cleaning up on state-bred competition but she’s good enough to act with open company as well, and in her present form the daughter of Square Eddie rates a big look in this year’s edition of the Wilshire S.-G3 for fillies and mares over a mile on grass. Equally effective sprinting or routing, the B. Cecil-trained filly was an extra game winner over previously unbeaten Becca Taylor in the Irish O’Brien S. down the Hill last time out and a similar effort today should be good enough. Keyflower shortens to a mile, exits the tougher Santa Ana S.-G3, and will be dangerous from off the pace. She tends to find trouble but with clear sailing today the French-bred filly will pose a serious threat in the final furlong. Canoodling has races that put her in the hunt, including her win in the listed Megahertz S. over this course and distance two races back. She is capable of being a strong pace presence if allowed to show her natural speed.