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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Hawthorne - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Moment Hoping #3 War Chest's dull recent form will keep him from showing too much early pace again today, potentially leaving this guy alone on the engine in his turf debut. There's a little pedigree for the new footing here, and you get a top local rider up.
#6 Fly Nightly He looks like the one to beat as he returns from a string of races in California, but I worry he's overbet here while dropping in class. Capable underlay?
#8 On a Spree He comes from the same barn as Fly Nightly and gets the go-to rider, and he's a much better fit here after fading badly late with starter company at Santa Anita. He can wake up here.
Race Summary Moment is worth a bit of a price look in a race where a couple of players from the same barn figure to take some cash, and he is a threat to wire these if he handles the new surface.
Hawthorne - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Adios Asher He's speed from the fence with a NY-bred stakes win to his credit already, and while he meets some other pace today, I think his class and speed will hold safe from here.
#3 Love the Nest He is the most reasonable alternative in here after landing a MN-bred stakes race when last seen in September, and he's fast enough to keep the top choice in his sights early on. Think he's getting the bigger class test here, but he has done nothing wrong so far.
#4 Cousvinnysacanuck He was a nice maiden winner at first asking last September at Canterbury, so there is probably a bit of upside here in this first start as a 3-year old. Still, he needs a big step forward to play with the top pair and probably benefits if they hook up on an unsustainable pace early.
Race Summary Adios Asher is out of a family full of serious winners, and he seems well on his way to adding to his mom's broodmare legacy. She gets Lasix for the first time and has an ace pace rider from the fence.
Hawthorne - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Crankshaft Never against taking a riser in good form in a spot like this, and he returned off the brief layoff with a really nice tracking score here. Maybe he's quick enough to track what might be lone speed today. Price chance.
#9 Cindy's G Man No arguing with anyone who lands here after that big frontrunning maiden win in the local debut last month, and she's not meeting a whole lot by way of other pace today. Big chance.
#8 Paddy's House He's a pretty reliable midpack type, but he has been toiling with similar for quite some time, and there are some other reasonable options in here. Wouldn't be a surprise, but prefer to hang my hat on the top pair here.
Race Summary Crankshaft and Cindy's G Man should be forwardly placed in a race without a ton of early speed. The former steps up off a nice score and might be in the right spot at the right time, while the latter seems to have some upside with just two starts under his belt, and the draw should be great for him to flash his pace.
Hawthorne - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Moment Hoping #3 War Chest's dull recent form will keep him from showing too much early pace again today, potentially leaving this guy alone on the engine in his turf debut. There's a little pedigree for the new footing here, and you get a top local rider up.
#6 Fly Nightly He looks like the one to beat as he returns from a string of races in California, but I worry he's overbet here while dropping in class. Capable underlay?
#8 On a Spree He comes from the same barn as Fly Nightly and gets the go-to rider, and he's a much better fit here after fading badly late with starter company at Santa Anita. He can wake up here.
Race Summary Moment is worth a bit of a price look in a race where a couple of players from the same barn figure to take some cash, and he is a threat to wire these if he handles the new surface.
Hawthorne - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Adios Asher He's speed from the fence with a NY-bred stakes win to his credit already, and while he meets some other pace today, I think his class and speed will hold safe from here.
#3 Love the Nest He is the most reasonable alternative in here after landing a MN-bred stakes race when last seen in September, and he's fast enough to keep the top choice in his sights early on. Think he's getting the bigger class test here, but he has done nothing wrong so far.
#4 Cousvinnysacanuck He was a nice maiden winner at first asking last September at Canterbury, so there is probably a bit of upside here in this first start as a 3-year old. Still, he needs a big step forward to play with the top pair and probably benefits if they hook up on an unsustainable pace early.
Race Summary Adios Asher is out of a family full of serious winners, and he seems well on his way to adding to his mom's broodmare legacy. She gets Lasix for the first time and has an ace pace rider from the fence.
Hawthorne - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Crankshaft Never against taking a riser in good form in a spot like this, and he returned off the brief layoff with a really nice tracking score here. Maybe he's quick enough to track what might be lone speed today. Price chance.
#9 Cindy's G Man No arguing with anyone who lands here after that big frontrunning maiden win in the local debut last month, and she's not meeting a whole lot by way of other pace today. Big chance.
#8 Paddy's House He's a pretty reliable midpack type, but he has been toiling with similar for quite some time, and there are some other reasonable options in here. Wouldn't be a surprise, but prefer to hang my hat on the top pair here.
Race Summary Crankshaft and Cindy's G Man should be forwardly placed in a race without a ton of early speed. The former steps up off a nice score and might be in the right spot at the right time, while the latter seems to have some upside with just two starts under his belt, and the draw should be great for him to flash his pace.
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