Sunday 5/15/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Monmouth Park Picks for May 15, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — May 15th, 2022 1:56am PDT

Monmouth Park Picks for May 15, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

We’re on the horse racing grind Sunday afternoon at a couple of tracks. It was an upset at Belmont Park in the Man o’ War Stakes on Saturday afternoon.

Highland Chief won in an upset over a capable field. It wasn’t as big of an upset as Rich Strike or anything close to that race, but Highland Chief wasn’t on the radar in the Man o’ War.

He won as a 20/1 underdog, the longest shot in the race. The Irish bred Highland Chief held on over Gufo and Yibir who were coming on hard in the stretch run. Yibir just didn’t break well out of the gate and couldn’t recover.
Sunday Feature
The feature on Sunday is the $150,000 Jacques Cartier Stakes (Gr. 3) at Woodbine in Toronto. The biggest stakes race in the US is the Gold Fever Stakes at Belmont Park.

We’re starting the day at Monmouth Park for the first time this season. Monmouth has $448,000 in prize money available. Head below for our best Monmouth Park picks on May 15, 2022.
Rank
Betting Site
Bonus Bet Now
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FantasyDraft
Free Entry up to $4 Go to Site
Race 3
(1) Always Aware
+600 (6/1)
(2) Office Etiquette
+600 (6/1)
(3) Practical Paulie
+500 (5/1)
(4) Princess Lean
+800 (8/1)
(5) My Maggie Moo
+600 (6/1)
(6) World Traveler
+150 (3/2)
(7) Cupids Girl
+400 (4/1)

Post Time: 1:10 p.m. EST

Distance:6 Furlongs

Purse: $57,500

Race 3 is a 6-furlong assignment worth $57,500 on the dirt. Expect good work from Cupids Girl and World Traveler in this one.

Cupids Girl is winless in five attempts, finishing 10th, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 5th in five races. In her most recent outing, she finished 10th for an $80,000 prize.

That was tough after showing 3rd on February 25 in the same grade. She had just placed 2nd in an $80,000 race, so it was discouraging.

Down to $57,500, Cupids Girl must be taken seriously on Sunday afternoon. Her biggest foe is likely World Traveler.

World Traveler made her debut on April 14 at Aqueduct. She did well to show 3rd in an $80,000 assignment. It was something to build on and her workouts are promising.

A repeat of that performance at this level should be sufficient. Look for World Traveler to get the win.
The Bet
(6) WORLD TRAVELER
+150
Place Bet Now!
Race 5
(1) Canoochee
+1200 (12/1)
(2) Liam’s Lady
+2000 (20/1)
(3) Maricopa
+800 (8/1)
(4) Successful Legacy
+400 (4/1)
(5) Not a Trace
+500 (5/1)
(6) Obstinate
+160 (8/5)
(7) Big Base
+400 (4/1)
(8) Golden Grant
+600 (6/1)

Post Time: 2:04 p.m. EST

Distance:1 Mile 70 Yards

Purse: $29,000

Race 5 is a $29,000 event covering a mile and 70 yards on the dirt. Not a Trace and Obstinate should have a big chance in this one.

Not a Trace is 3 for 17 and 8th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st in his previous four outings dating back to a win on January 25.

The filly struck for a $21,000 purse on January 21. Since then, it’s been a struggle to go back to the winner’s circle, though came close a couple of times.

She most recently finished 8th for a $30,000 prize on April 12. I’m not sure if she should be in this class, but the field isn’t the toughest.

Obstinate is 4 for 26 and 4th, 1st, 1st in her previous three attempts. Her hat-trick bid was blocked on April 12 at Parx.

Obstinate finished 4th for a $30,000 purse. Despite the loss, the mare had a $25,000 and $45,000 win by 5

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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 15, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

It's Sunday and Northfield Park has a 14-race card ready to go. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Calvin K (3-1)-Steps-up and will need a top effort at this level. Merriman sticks and could end up in the pocket behind #5 and look to roll by down the lane.
5-Amadeus As (2-1)-Drops out of Opens to the level of the last win which came on 4-24. Davis should take control early on and could be an odds-on choice.

Race 12

1-Mac Deeno (4-1)-Has been in tough in the last 2 and broke stride each time. Won at this level 3 back off a nice trip and Stahl can follow the same plan here.
3-Settit And Forgetit (2-1)-Steps-up after making every call a winning one last week. Merriman is between the pipes again and although this may not be as easy it's best to not overlook.
4-Chasin' Dreams (7/2)-Fits well with this crew and should land a good seat from this post. Has hit the board in 18 of 28 here with 5 pictures and could offer some value.

Race 13

3-Gotti (7-1)-Fits with this group, should be forwardly placed and could reward new connections at first asking. Clegg will need to provide a smooth trip and should offer a nice price.
5-Pet My Rock (7/2)-Fled the scene in the 2nd half of the mile and cruised home by 4 length after starting in the 2nd tier. Comes back versus the same kind looking for its 3rd straight picture.

Race 14

4-Just Bookem (4-1)-Seems to do its best work racing near the top of the stack and should offer a fair price. Ebersole needs to provide a sharp steer and has the speed to beat this field
6-Rockn Motion (8/5)-Burke trainee ships back from HoP after facing better. Merriman gets the assignment and could be aggressive from the start. Looks like a player at a short price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,5/1,3,4/3,5/4,6
Total Bet=$24

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 5-15-22

May 15, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Mia At Midnight; 1-A Thousand Dreams

Forecast: Mia At Midnight (TOC=8/5; ML=2-1) makes her first start since arriving from Gulfstream Park and brings with her races and speed figures that are good enough to win this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. In addition to the lucrative purse, there is ship-and-win money available to her, so you can be sure it’s a “go.” K. Frey rides a lot of live runners for this stable, so we’re expecting the daughter of Midnight Lute to be along in time. For protection, you probably should find room on a ticket or two for A Thousand Dreams (TOC=6-1; ML=5/2). In her third start off a layoff, the V. Cerin-trained mare is guaranteed a ground-saving journey from her good rail draw, and if she can get some cover with a second flight trip, she could produce an improved late kick.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Slam Dunk Sermon; 4-Silken Prince

Forecast: Slam Dunk Sermon (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) moves up a notch on the class ladder after a clever score over this track and distance last month that produced a better-than-par speed figure. A winner of nine races from 22 career outings, the son of Rousing Sermon employs an ideal stalking style that usually puts him in the race and keeps him free of trouble. Silken Prince (TOC=2-1; ML=2-1) is also worth including in rolling exotic play. Not nearly as fast on numbers as our top pick, the Kafwain gelding nevertheless warrants respect after a sharp score in a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 seller two weeks ago before joining the red-hot V. Cerin barn, which hits at 19% with a massive ROI with the first-off-the-claim angle.


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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Lady T

Forecast: Lady T is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and may even going lower in this main track mile affair for maiden fillies and mares. This will be her first try around two turns, but the daughter of Into Mischief should handle the stretch-out in trip, especially against five rivals who appear badly outclassed based on speed figures. In a race that offers no wagering value, you can use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

Notable Workouts:

Lady T (May 7, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B+
Strictly on her own in solo main track drill, splits of :12.1, :23.4, :35.2 and 1:00 flat on our watches, nice as usual. Overdue for a maiden win and should have no difficulty stretching out based on this drill.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 5-Harbored Memories

Forecast: In a five runner field, let’s go all in on Harbored Memories (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) in this highly-competitive second-level allowance turf sprint. Drawn comfortably outside, the M. Puype-trained colt projects to draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and then have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Most comfortable with this kind of trip, the Washington-bred colt is a strong fit on speed figures and has finished first or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, with the only blemish a respectable fourth place finish down the hill last month. Back on the flat course today and listed at 5/2 under regular rider J. Valdivia, the son of Harbor the Gold is a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

Notable Workouts:

Harbored Memories (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Broke off a length behind Unusual Heatwave (5f, 1:01h) and was breezing through the lane to finish a head in front at the wire, never asked, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.2. Holding his edge for M. Puype.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 3:16 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Law Abidin Citizen

Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, an allowance/optional claimer at the extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs on the main track. Law Abidin Citizen (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) was disappointing when seventh in the Phoenix Gold Cup at Turf Paradise in mid-March but after a two month freshening we’re expecting the veteran gelding to return to winning form in this easier assignment. He’s eligible to run at this condition for having been entered for $50,000, and at this stage of his career the multiple stakes-winning 8-year-old gelding probably fits best at this level. A heathy work pattern since raced for M. Glatt is another positive factor. California Street, a four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, is a prototype late-running sprinter, exits a productive race, and should be dangerous with anything close to his best race.

Notable Workouts:

Law Abidin Citizen (April 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B
In blinkers, very light late coaxing in steady drill for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :37 flat. Seems in good enough shape after brief freshening, can regain best form but needs a class drop.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Unbroken Star; 4-Mike Operator

Forecast: This bottom-rung $10,000 claiming miler for older horses is a messy affair that is full of question marks and negative angles. No result would surprise. Unbroken Star (TOC=7/5; ML=2-1) just won a $16,000 affair last month but takes a two-level class drop off that win, so his connections obviously don’t view him favorably in the long term. If he has one good one left, the veteran Broken Vow gelding should win, but he was a voided claim earlier this meeting, so his current condition is suspect. Mike Operator (TOC=10-1; ML=4-1) takes a sharp drop in class while returning to his winning level, and if he can secure the role as the controlling speed without undue pressure the J. Wong-trained gelding could get brave and never look back. However with the sprinter-stretching-out Hit the Seam drawn along the rail, ‘Operator may be relegated to a stalker’s role, which isn’t the worst thing in the world since he’s won three races doing just that. Small ticket players may choose to use just these two in rolling exotic play, but if you feel the need to spread the race, go right ahead.


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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: A-
Single: 1-Special Ride

Forecast: Special Ride was best when third (beaten a neck) after being “risked” for a $150,000 claiming price in his debut, then was protected in straight maiden company and produced a significant forward move to win for fun in a fast, highly-rated sprint that was visually off the charts. Stretching out to a mile while moving into the allowance ranks, the son of Candy Ride from the outstanding race mare Executiveprivilege lands the rail and seems likely to establish the pace and dominate throughout. He’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line; you’ll be lucky to get it. He’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Special Ride (April 27, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B+
Under stout restraint every step of the way while even but best with Sumo (same time) for S. McCarthy while appearing sharp as a tack. Up the ladder, for sure.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Bolden; 2-Scary Fast Smile; 1-Big Hand

Forecast: Bolden won his debut very impressively here almost two years ago as a 2-year-old but then disappeared. He finally makes it back to the races and has trained like he’s never missed a beat. The talented son of Square Eddie looks to have quality that the others don’t, so while this is a salty group of older, seasoned runners, he may simply outclass the field at 3-1 on the morning line. Scary Fast Smile is good enough to win at this level with his best race, but he’s simply not one to trust, having failed the last four times he’s been sent to the post as the wagering favorite. A first-off-the-claim for R. Hess, Jr., the Smiling Tiger gelding seems to have lost a bit of his early speed and may be more comfortable at an extended sprint distance. Big Hand didn’t have a whole lot behind him in his debut but he did it the right way. The rail post does him no favors but the son of Mr. Big can be dangerous with a clean break from the barrier.

Notable Workouts:

Bolden (April 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h TT). Grade: B+
Saw him last month breaking off a couple of lengths behind Dick Best (5f, 1:01.4h TT) in training track team drill and finishing head-and-head with that one, never asked a drop at any stage while looking sharp, fit, and ready, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01.2. Been away for almost two years but looks spot on for P. D’Amato. Was an easy winner of his only outing as a 2-year-old.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 5:20 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Rijeka

Forecast: Returning off an eight-month layoff, Rijeka (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) was given a run up north two weeks ago in a mile allowance race that was too sharp for him and served the purpose of getting the rust off and providing a springboard to this 10-furlong starter’s allowance turf affair that suits him perfectly. The Irish-bred veteran likes to settle early and blast home, and in this softer affair the P. D’Amato-trained gelding should be able to produce the last run. At 5/2 on the morning line, he offers good value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Sand and Sea She had a tough go of things when last seen at Keeneland, and she's a major player here if she's able to get a clean run today. The barn has been aces so far this meet, and this one can turn tables today.
#8 Only Kidding She turned in a nice effort in her turf debut last time out, and something similar definitely keeps her in the mix. She's likely to take some cash, and I am a bit worried if she'll get the right setup. Capable player.
#9 Blazing Summer I want her on the tickets as she returns off the layoff, and I like that she showed some positional speed in the debut win last summer. She needs to come forward some if she's going to land this, but the price should be right.
Race Summary Sand and Sea is a tough customer in here with her best game, and she didn't have a fair chance to show it last time out. She and Only Kidding make a lot of sense, and I'm including Blazing Summer as a price player with a good race shape waiting.

Churchill Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Gold Heritage Lot of different ways you can go in this one, but this guy returns off the bench after a good stakes try in a small field at Colonial last August. He may have come forward into his 3-year-old season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see even better today.
#3 Kitodan He has a big claim on this after the synthetic stakes score at Turfway, and he handled the turf nicely in the two-back Gulfstream win. Wonder if he's going to be able to hold that form today.
#8 Double Clutch He has done little wrong through two starts, and his baseline effort stacks up really nicely with this bunch. He has shown some versatility in running style, and he's a win contender right back with this group.
Race Summary Gold Heritage tried a small stakes group off his maiden win, and I'm hoping he's even better than he was through those two starts in his juvenile season. The price figures to be playable while getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time.

Churchill Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Spring Magic She has come forward in a couple of turf starts this year, and I like that she'll probably be in a good spot while tracking the pace from close range. Mid-range price here?
#6 Macadamia She has a bit of upside in this second start off the layoff, and I'm hoping she can build on that kind of even comeback run at Keeneland. Expecting better here.
#1 Spare Cash She's supposed to win this for a top team, but she has given away ground in the stretch call of all six career starts, so while she's a main player here, I wouldn't be too excited to be sitting here at a short price as she turns for home in front.
Race Summary Spring Magic gets the call in a spot where I'm trying to beat likely short-priced chalk Spare Cash. She's certainly talented enough to win this, but she doesn't know how to dig in late, and this one might be there for the taking late.

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Gulfstream Park Picks - Sunday, May 15, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-3-8
Race 2: 2-6-3-1
Race 3: 3-6-5-1
Race 4: 1-3-5-6
Race 5: 9-10-2-4
Race 6: 6-5-1-3
Race 7: 4-8-2-1
Race 8: 4-5-6-1
Race 9: 3-6-9-2
**Most Likely Winner: Famous Gent #1 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Brass Band #3 (Race 3)**

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Monmouth Park Picks - Sunday, May 15, 2022

Race 1: 2-4-1-6
Race 2: 1-5-6-3
Race 3: 6-7-2-4
Race 4: 1-7-6-5
Race 5: 6-7-2-1
Race 6: 8-3-2-7
Race 7: 8-1-3-4
Race 8: 8-2-4-6
Race 9: 6-1-2-7
**Most Likely Winner: Golden Bell #1 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Burgee #8 (Race 6)**

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Mountaineer Park Picks - Sunday, May 15, 2022

Race 1: 3-8-5-9
Race 2: 8-1-2-3
Race 3: 7-4-5-2
Race 4: 6-8-7-9
Race 5: 2-4-7-1
Race 6: 7-4-5-1
Race 7: 3-8-5-4
Race 8: 3-7-5-1
**Most Likely Winner: Giro Kate (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Strategic Ekati (Race 1)**

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Santa Anita Park Picks - Sunday, May 15, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-5-2
Race 2: 4-3-1-5
Race 3: 6-3-1-2
Race 4: 4-1-3-2
Race 5: 4-6-1-2
Race 6: 2-7-6-4
Race 7: 1-5-6-4
Race 8: 1-2-8-7
Race 9: 6-7-5-2
**Most Likely: Lady T (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Mashhad Flats (Race 6)**

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Woodbine Picks - Sunday, May 15, 2022

Race 1: 8-4-7-2
Race 2: 1-9-5-6
Race 3: 4-5-1-6
Race 4: 9-4-2-8
Race 5: 4-8-9-3
Race 6: 2-6-12-3
Race 7: 4-1-3-8
Race 8: 10-5-7-4
Race 9: 7-1-5-3
Race 10: 8-9-7-5
**Most Likely Winner: Souper Stonehenge (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Hell Bent (Race 2)**

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

05/15/22, MTH, Race 3, 1.10 ET
05/15/22,MTH,3,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $57,500. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Office Etiquette(b-)	6/1	Batista J A	Stephens John D.	TL	158	36.08	1.14/$1
089.3228	7	Cupids Girl	4/1	Camacho S	Ryerson James T.	JW	158	36.08	1.14/$1
087.6069	3	Practical Paulie	5/1	Worrie A S	Englehart Jeffrey S.	C	13	61.54	2.77/$1
087.4757	5	My Maggie Moo	6/1	Rendon J	McGregor Robert	F	158	36.08	1.14/$1
086.8354	4	Princess Lean	8/1	Castillo I	Avila Juan Carlos		158	36.08	1.14/$1
086.7704	6	World Traveler	3/2	Lopez P	Sacco Gregory D.	SE	158	36.08	1.14/$1
085.3889	1	Always Aware	6/1	Juarez N	Duarte. Jr. Jorge		158	36.08	1.14/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 32.94, ROI 0.69/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -10.6772
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Race Sex Females

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)! Free Winners for Sunday, May 15th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
SANTA ANITA PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 7:02 PM EST
PICK: BET #5 American Admiral 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Sunday, May 15th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Astros @ Nationals
TIME: 1:35 PM EST
PICK: Bet UNDER 8 @ BOVADA

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Sunday, May 15th, 2022 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!FREE MLB PICKS
Reds @ Pirates
TIME: 1:35 PM EST
PICKS: BET OVER 8.5 @ BOVADA

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Woodruff -150 over Miami

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: SEATTLE/NY METS OVER the total of 8 runs