Saturday 8/20/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Canterbury Park Picks - Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-2-4
Race 2: 7-3-4-1
Race 3: 4-2-3-9
Race 4: 1-6-2-3
Race 5: 7-4-3-1
Race 6: 10-3-6-1
Race 7: 7-2-3-6
Race 8: 8-2-10-4
Race 9: 2-8-6-1
Race 10: 3-7-1-4
**Most Likely Winner: Plane Talk #5 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Rental Pool #4 (Race 3)**

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Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Picks: Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 5-6-2-4
Race 2: 6-3-8-4
Race 3: 4-2-3-7
Race 4: 6-3-1-4
Race 5: 3-7-6-8
Race 6: 6-9-2-5
Race 7: 8-10-3-11
Race 8: 11-14-3-9
Race 9: 4-2-5-10
Race 10: 3-11-6-4
Most Likely Winner: Fearless Girl #6 (Race 4)
Best Value: Tea N Conversation #6 (Race 2)

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Ellis Park Picks - Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 5-4-7-1
Race 2: 1/1A-5-3-2
Race 3: 1-2-8-4
Race 4: 6-1-3-5
Race 5: 7-1-3-5
Race 6: 2-1-9-6
Race 7: 2-1-8-7
Race 8: 3-6-4-1
**Most Likely Winner: Creed #6 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Becky Thatcher #2 (Race 6)**

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FanDuel Sportsbook & Horse Racing Picks - Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 2-4-3-5
Race 2: 5-6-1-4
Race 3: 4-7-3-2
Race 4: 6-4-1-5
Race 5: 2-7-5-1
Race 6: 1-5-2-9
Race 7: 3-1-2-6
Race 8: 4-1-5-6
**Most Likely Winner: Khozie's Ghost (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Hern (Race 6)**

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Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 7-1-12-4
Race 2: 6-7-2-1
Race 3: 8-1-2-4
Race 4: 3-1-6-5
Race 5: 11-1-6-4
Race 6: 2-5-7-4
Race 7: 3-5-1-7
Race 8: 7-6-8-2
Race 9: 1-6-10-9
Race 10: 7-1-5-6
Race 11: 6-1-8-4
Race 12: 3-7-12-9
**Most Likely Winner: Gemma's Curls #3 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Shea D Capture #7 (Race 1)**

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Monmouth Park Picks: Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 4-5-7-1
Race 2: 6-4-2-3
Race 3: 6-5-1-2
Race 4: 8-3-1-7
Race 5: 2-1-6-5
Race 6: 5-9-1-8
Race 7: 7-5-2-3
Race 8: 5-4-8-7
Race 9: 3-1-2-5
Race 10: 9-2-8-4
Race 11: 6-1-4-7
Most Likely Winner: Navy Goat (Race 4)
Best Value: Kitten Street (Race 10)

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Saratoga Picks: Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 2-4-6-7
Race 2: 6-1-3-5
Race 3: 4-3-1-6
Race 4: 6-5-3-2
Race 5: 4-1-6-2
Race 6: 6-1/1A-2-5
Race 7: 5-3-4-6
Race 8: 1-4-5-3
Race 9: 4-5-1-6
Race 10: 4-7-3-2
Race 11: 4-9-6-8
Most Likely Winner: Nest #4 (Race 10)
Best Value: Sarah Harper #4 (Race 9)

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Woodbine Picks - Saturday, August 20, 2022

Race 1: 2-3-6-5
Race 2: 6-8-9-7
Race 3: 5-4-6-3
Race 4: 2-6-7-4
Race 5: 8-5-3-4
Race 6: 4-11-10-9
Race 7: 5-4-3-2
Race 8: 1-5-3-8
Race 9: 4-7-5-2
Race 10: 2-11-6-7
**Most Likely: Ima Daredevil (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Cleomenes (Race 4)**

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EDDIE OLCZYK'S HAT TRICK

Aug 20th DEL MAR

Race 1 #4 LAMMAS

RACE 8 #5 CAIRO MEMORIES

RACE 10 #11 ALBAYAADER

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GamePlan for August 20, 2022: Picks for Del Mar Oaks, Smart N Fancy, Soaring Free
Marcus Hersh

The Alabama for 3-year-old dirt fillies at Saratoga is the marquee race this Saturday, but on the other side of the country, the Del Mar Oaks, for 3-year-old turf fillies, offers a better wagering opportunity. I tried to beat Nest with Secret Oath in the Coaching Club American Oaks last month and am not eager to do that again. Instead, the focus is the Del Mar Oaks, another among the three Saratoga stakes, and a race north of the border.

Del Mar Oaks

Spendarella’s favoritism here is absolutely justified. I thought her Keeneland win in April, which I was lucky enough to see in person, was better than the bare margin of victory, and her loss in England came to the most talented 3-year-old filly in Europe, Inspiral.

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Still, Spendarella ships cross-country, faces her toughest American test at a distance farther than she’s ever run, and gets stuck in an outside post with other speed in the race – all this at a very short price. The filly might overcome it all but there is merit in playing against her.

Second-choice Cairo Memories returns to California after a pace-and-fade trip against a stronger Belmont group, top to bottom, than this. She’s already had a demanding campaign, could wind up part of a solid pace, and has little upside on the day.

Txope is the mystery horse. She has form lines through some very good horses, sure, but Spendarella’s second in the Coronation is the best European race any horse in this field has put forth.

Ballet Dancing, who might be set for the race of her life at a very nice price, received due consideration, but Bellabel, who either is third or fourth choice, gets my action in the Del Mar Oaks.

The Irish import looks to me like the key player who can take a considerable step forward Saturday. She won the San Clemente last month while eased up, displaying athleticism and a nice turn of foot, and can work into a mid-pack stalking trip here while saving ground from post 2. Her sire’s progeny’s average winning distance is just short of this nine-furlong trip, and one of her two siblings to race could handle 1 1/2 miles, meaning the stretch-out here could be more positive than negative.

Smart N Fancy

It would be amusing if Robin Sparkles just went out and scored a second straight wire-to-wire Saratoga turf-sprint stakes win – amusing, but not impossible. The two horses most likely to pressure her on the lead, Fouette and Sarah Harper, never have even raced on turf. Still, I’m guessing Robin Sparkles doesn’t repeat her Caress Stakes upset and I will take the Caress’s third-place finisher, Lady Edith, to win this.

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Lady Edith is one of a handful of 4-year-olds in the Smart N Fancy and makes her third start after a long layoff and a trainer change to Christophe Clement. She has ample room to improve. Lady Edith’s two 2022 races each came with some measure of trouble, and she likely has more positional pace than she showed in the Caress. Clement told DRF’s David Grening that Lady Edith hit her head on the starting gate as the field was sent on their way, and Lady Edith, by top turf-sprint sire Street Boss, had to pick her way through stretch traffic while finishing fastest in the Caress. Her stablemate Miss J McKay had a tougher Caress trip than did Lady Edith but is one year older and far more exposed.

Soaring Free

Philip My Dear is the play to start his career 2 for 2 by winning the Soaring Free over 6 1/2 furlongs on the Woodbine turf course. The colt is 6-1 on the morning line, and even if he gets bet down to some extent, he should be at least in the 7-2 range.

Like many here, Philip My Dear has raced only once, and his debut was excellent. Breaking from post 1 and stuck on the rail inside horses going down the backstretch and around the turn, Philip My Dear kept his composure and stayed on the bridle until his rider could maneuver and find some room. Philip My Dear accelerated through two tight holes while turning in what easily was that maiden race’s fastest final furlong to win going away. His trainer, Kevin Attard, over the last five years has gone 12-2-4-1 with second-time-starting 2-year-olds in stakes races.

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Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, August 20

By Robin Goodfellow For The Daily Mail

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Saturday's meetings at York, Newton Abbot, Chester, Lingfield, Chelmsford City and Sandown.

YORK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.50 Mighty Ulysses

2.25 Soulcombe

3.00 Jumby

3.35 ALFRED BOUCHER (nap)

4.10 Ghathanfar

4.45 Rocket Rodney

5.20 Spirit Dancer (nb)

GIMCRACK

1.50 Mighty Ulysses

2.25 Savvy Knight

3.00 Sacred

3.35Earl Of Tyrone

4.10 Tabdeed

4.45 Rocket Rodney (nb)

5.20 Injazati



NEWTON ABBOT

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.07 Pop The Champagne

1.42 Ragamuffin

2.17 Dandy Mag

2.52 Merclan Prince

3.27 Faint Hope

4.02 Byzantine Empire

4.35 Tarseem

GIMCRACK

1.07 Pop The Champagne

1.42 Loch's Corner

2.17 Vision Des Flos

2.52 Bathiva

3.27 Loved Out

4.02 Mortiach

4.35 Al Zaraqaan



LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.40 Twilight Secret

5.15 Italian Lover

5.50 Talamanca

6.20 Crown Bridges

6.50 Morgan Fairy

7.20 Coconut Bay

7.50 Stormbreaker

GIMCRACK

4.40 Porfin

5.15 Hiya Hiya

5.50 Talamanca

6.20 Zicatela

6.50 Morgan Fairy

7.20 Bass Strait

7.50 Maggie’s Delight



CHESTER

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.55 Tellus

2.30 Can To Can

3.05 Rajinsky

3.40 Fools Rush In

4.15 Roman Dragon

4.50 So Smart

5.25 Emiyn

GIMCRACK

1.55 Frankness

2.30 All The Time

3.05 River Of Stars

3.40 On A Session

4.15 Ancient Times

4.50 So Smart

5.25 Mancini



SANDOWN

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

2.05 Grande Dame

2.40 Defence Of Fort

3.15 Global Esteem

3.50 Ajero

4.25 Catch A Star

5.00 Priors Dell

5.35 Impeach

GIMCRACK

2.05 Grande Dame (nap)

2.40 Defence Of Fort

3.15 Al Rufaa

3.50 Belloccio

4.25 Catch A Star

5.00 Gulmarg

5.35 Chipstea



CHELMSFORD CITY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.51 Rogue Storm

5.26 Rock Girl

6.00 Al Khazneh

6.35 Lil’ Frank

7.05 Miss Bella Brand

7.35 Laurentia

GIMCRACK

4.51 Rogue Storm

5.26 Rock Girl

6.00 Al Khazneh

6.35 Nanga Parbat

7.05 Miss Bella Brand

7.35 Laurentia

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How to bet the 2022 Del Mar Oaks
Vance Hanson

Barring any late withdrawals, Saturday's $300,000 Del Mar Oaks (G1) will have a capacity field of 14 three-year-old fillies. Although the morning line favorite looks very strong on paper from a class perspective, she will be in unknown territory trying 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Rather, a longshot with further upside will be the centerpiece of our wagering plans.

#12 Ballet Dancing (20-1), a seemingly big and long-striding filly, figures to appreciate the step back up to nine furlongs after rallying for second behind #8 Gracelund Gray in a July 24 first-level allowance going 1 1/16 miles. Before that, in her debut against winners, Ballet Dancing finished third in the nine-furlong Honeymoon (G3) behind the vastly more experienced #5 Cairo Memories and #3 Island of Love.

An $800,000 Keeneland September purchase for Coolmore, Ballet Dancing is by Medaglia d'Oro and from the family of juvenile filly champion Halfbridled. There was seemingly much to like about her to command such a price, and the late-developing sort still has plenty more room for improvement. Her late running style and a congested field could prove problematic, but she does figure to get an honest pace and hopefully can find some luck in running.

#11 Spendarella (8-5) is the one to beat. Following graded wins at Gulfstream and Keeneland early in the season, she shipped to England for the Coronation (G1) at Royal Ascot, where she finished second behind Inspiral, one of the top milers in all of Europe.

San Clemente (G2) heroine #2 Bellabel (5-1) is 2-for-2 against stakes foes since her importation from Ireland and is the strongest looking of the Phil D'Amato-trained quartet in the Del Mar Oaks. She won the San Clemente by two lengths despite not having run since Jan. 2, and chances are she won that without being 100 percent fit. If that was indeed the case, she might be even more dangerous in this spot.

We will back Ballet Dancing in the win pool and key her in exacta boxes with the two classy rivals mentioned.
Del Mar Oaks wagers

$20 win: #12 Ballet Dancing ($20)

$5 exacta key box: 12 with 2,11 ($20)

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The Jury: Bets and fades for Aug. 20
TwinSpires Staff

Alabama Day at Saratoga, the Del Mar Oaks (G1), Queen's Plate at Woodbine, and juveniles at Monmouth Park are all in the sights of our TwinSpires Jury. James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Ashley Anderson offer thoughts on another action-packed weekend of racing.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: #1 Change of Control (7-2) has never been better and takes her course with her, recording six of her nine turf wins at different venues, and the six-year-old appears well-spotted in Saturday’s Smart N Fancy S. (race 9) at Saratoga. Two back in the Jaipur (G1) against males, she finished a good fourth to Casa Creed at a less-than-favorable six-furlong distance, and the Michelle Lovell-trained mare cuts back to Saturday's 5 1/2-furlong trip (seven career wins) when recording a sharp tune-up in the Andy Guest S. at Colonial Downs last out. Change of Control fits well at this level, and she’ll carry her strong form forward.

Kellie Reilly: #10 Adora (10-1) has appeal, especially at a price, in Saturday’s Catch a Glimpse S. at Woodbine. After her impressive debut win on the Tapeta, trainer Mark Casse regarded her highly enough to try the Schuylerville (G3) at Saratoga, even though she wasn’t training as sharply on dirt. That didn’t work out, as she never recovered from a bumpy start and wound up trailing home. The switch to turf here should suit her much better. A $450,000 daughter of top sire Into Mischief, Adora is out of multiple Grade 3 heroine Southern Ring, herself a two-time winner over the Woodbine turf. Southern Ring is by the versatile influence Speightstown, from one of Sam-Son Farm’s productive families. Thus Adora could be the latest advertisement for the Into Mischief-Speightstown cross, responsible for Grade 1 winners Mia Mischief and Mischevious Alex as well as high-class turf sprinter Man of Promise.

Ashley Anderson: While Change of Control is a formidable challenger in the Smart N Fancy, I'm taking a chance on #7 Illegal Smile (8-1), who will cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs after being outkicked at the finish in the Intercontinental (G3) at Belmont last out. The Wesley Ward trainee is 7 2-3-0 at today's distance and won back to back in her last two tries at 5 1/2 furlongs. The four-year-old will return from a two-month layoff and switches to rider Jose Ortiz, an 18% winner on turf.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #3 Peaceful Waters and #4 Favorite Outlaw, 9-5 and 7-5 in an entry-level allowance (race 3) at Saratoga Saturday, were no threat finishing second and third at the same level last out, and they’ve had little to offer in the stretch of recent starts. I don’t expect a favorable trip for either at the 1 1/8-mile distance, and I’ll fade the short-priced runners in multi-race wagers.

KR: It might be reckless to quibble with #11 Spendarella (8-5), who brings formidable credentials into Saturday’s Del Mar Oaks (G1). Unbeaten stateside and most recently second in Royal Ascot’s Coronation S. (G1), she succumbed only to standout miler Inspiral, who recently toppled older males in the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1). And trainer Graham Motion’s past Royal Ascot alumnae have run well upon their return. Yet the scenario at Del Mar is trickier than her morning-line odds imply: she’s drawn wide, with a forward running style, in a race with plenty of speed, stepping up to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, on a course favorable to closers at this distance, against a few other smart rivals. With the compounding of possible vulnerabilities, I’m tempted to try to beat Spendarella at Del Mar.

AA: Like Kellie, I'm not bullish on #11 Spendarella (8-5) in the Del Mar Oaks in her first try at nine furlongs. The three-year-old can be beaten by #5 Cairo Memories (3-1), who weakened late in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Oaks (G1) last out and will cut back to 1 1/8 miles, a distance from which she is 2-for-2 while running on Santa Anita's lawn. I'm also intrigued by Irish-bred #2 Bellabel (5-1), who has won three straight at a mile, including last out in the San Clemente S. (G2) at Del Mar, where she won by two lengths over a handful of today's race rivals. Phil D'Amato is an 18% winner in graded stakes and is 6-for-17 paired up with Umberto Rispoli the last two months.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Eleven are set for Sunday’s Queen’s Plate at Woodbine, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, and I like #1 Hall of Dreams following an encouraging runner-up effort in his stakes debut, the July 24 Plate Trial S. A late-maturing son of Lemon Drop Kid, Hall of Dreams raced in spots while finishing second thrice and third once from his first five starts, but he put it together when stretching out to nine furlongs in late June, determinedly overhauling a loose-on-the-lead pacesetter to win going away. He continued to display a fine turn of foot last time, appearing to be in the midst of a winning rally in the 1 1/8-mile Plate Trial when knocked off stride turning for home. Hall of Dreams wound up a clear second after regaining his momentum, and the distance-loving colt’s best races are in front of him. Listed at 12-1 for two-time Queen’s Plate winner Mark Casse, Hall of Dreams projects to receive a favorable ground-saving trip with two-time Queen’s Plate winner Patrick Husbands, and the progressing late runner is eligible to make a serious impact in the final furlongs.

KR: While Woodbine’s Queen’s Plate card is the center of attention on Sunday, keep an eye on a potentially deep renewal of Monmouth Park's Sorority S. for two-year-old fillies. Unbeaten Astoria S. romper Devious Dame is another headliner for freshman sire Girvin, whose son Damon’s Mound starred in last weekend’s Saratoga Special (G2). Vedareo, a Daredevil half-sister to 2020 champion juvenile filly Vequist, looks to bounce back from a troubled fifth in the Schuylerville. Alma Rosa, by prolific freshman sire Sharp Azteca, was best of the rest behind smashing Munnys Gold before crushing a maiden by 10 lengths. Well-bred maiden winners Born Dapper and Outofnothingatall add to the intrigue in Sunday’s one-mile affair.

AA: Top three-year-old filly #4 Nest (1-2) is a heavy favorite, and rightfully so, in the Alabama S. (G1), the second to last race on Saratoga's Saturday card. The Curlin daughter romped to a 12-length win in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), beating the likes of Kentucky Oaks hero #7 Secret Oath (4-1) and Gazelle (G3) winner #5 Nostalgic (12-1), who re-oppose here. But while I'm confident Nest will handle the 1 1/4-mile Alabama, I'm intrigued to see how #4 Gerrymander (7-2) fares against her competition. The Chad Brown pupil was much the best in the Mother Goose (G2) at Belmont last out and will re-oppose Nest for the first time since beating her three back in the Tempted S. at Belmont in November. I see the Into Mischief three-year-old proving herself the best of the rest in her second Grade 1 event.

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2022 Alabama Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
By Vance Hanson

1. SKRATCH KAT (30-1) – Sire won the Travers (G1) here by a record margin and time, and this late developer figures to enjoy the added distance; the obvious knock is that she’s never competed beyond the N1X allowance level, and there are some real bears in the three-year-old filly division this season; placing would be quite an achievement.

2. GODDESS OF FIRE (20-1) – Perhaps not as inferior to the top fillies here as her Kentucky Oaks (G1) effort would imply, but still doesn’t exactly match up well with them either; has settled for minor awards throughout her stakes career, with best runs coming in far easier spots; primary positive is that she’s run well in two starts over this track, but that’s not a huge advantage against some of these, especially over the unfamiliar terrain of 1 1/4 miles.

3. GERRYMANDER (7-2) – If there’s going to be any toppling of the two primary contenders, it’s going to come from this filly, who has already beaten Nest once and most recently powered to a convincing win in the Mother Goose (G2); Shahama, the Mother Goose runner-up, was sixth in the Kentucky Oaks and later won the Monmouth Oaks (G3), so a decent stick by which to measure this filly’s probable chances; a half-sister to marathon specialist Lone Rock, she figures to enjoy this first two-turn jaunt and is not without a chance for barn that’s had an eventful week.

4. NEST (1-2) – Although Secret Oath was taken out of her game tactically in the CCA Oaks (G1), doubt she would have beaten this filly at any rate; it was an incredible performance, and a welcome return to winning after seconds in the Kentucky Oaks and Belmont S. (G1); has a ton going for her in this rubber match with Secret Oath, and well-deserving of the short price on offer.

5. NOSTALGIC (12-1) – Gazelle (G3) winner has been left in the wake of the top two in both attempts facing them this year, and don’t see how the gap between her and them will be lowered appreciably here; distance suits, from a pedigree perspective, but this spot again appears too tough.

6. SHE’S KEEN (30-1) – Her sire, Keen Ice, upset American Pharoah in the Travers a few years back, but this would be a more unpredictable result if she were to step up off a maiden win and take this prestigious event over a far more experienced group; she lulled her rivals to sleep going nine furlongs last time, but won’t have that luxury here.

7. SECRET OATH (4-1) – Kentucky Oaks winner can look brilliant at times, and due to that connections rolled the dice twice against the boys, though didn’t have much luck either time; doubt 12-length gap between her and Nest last time is an accurate reflection, especially since she raced far closer to the pace than preferred; Lukas has said he’s had several meetings with Saez to ensure that won’t happen here, thus backers should get a more formful run today even if she again proves not up to Nest’s standard; obvious danger.