Sunday 8/21/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 08:01 AM

Sunday’s games

National League
Cincinnati (47-71) @ Pittsburgh (47-73)
— Minor is 0-3, 6.19 in his last three starts.
— Reds are 1-12 in his starts.
— under 7-0 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 1-13
— record in first 5 innings: 2-8-3
— He is 1-2, 5.19 in six starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Reds are 3-8 in last 11 games.
— Cincinnati is 21-35 on road.
— under 16-9-1 last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-118
— record in first 5 innings: 39-61-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-1.2-4

— Thompson is 0-3, 9.00 in his last five starts.
— Pirates are 2-8 in his last ten starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-13
— He is 1-0, 0.00 in two starts (11 IP) vs Cincinnati TY.

— Pirates are 4-11 in their last 15 games.
— Pittsburgh is 26-32 at home.
— over 15-5-2 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-120
— record in first 5 innings: 37-60-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-5

NY Mets (78-44) @ Philadelphia (66-54)
— Butto is making his MLB debut.
— He was 6-6, 4.12 in 20 minor league starts TY, mostly in AA.
— under 0-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-0
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Philly.

— Mets are 20-7 in their last 27 games.
— Mets are 38-25 on road.
— under 9-6 last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 45-122
— record in first 5 innings: 67-31-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.1-3-8.1

— Gibson is 3-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
— Philly is 9-4 in his last 13 starts.
— over 4-2-2 last eight home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-13-1
— He is 1-0, 2.61 in two starts vs New York TY.

— Phillies are 16-7 in last 23 games.
— Philly is 33-28 at home.
— under 9-2 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 32-120
— record in first 5 innings: 48-51-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-6.2

Milwaukee (63-56) @ Chicago (52-67)
— Woodruff is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.
— Milwaukee is 12-6 in his starts.
— over 9-6 last 15 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-17
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-2
— He is 2-2, 3.59 in 12 starts vs Chicago.

— Brewers are 6-12 in their last 18 games.
— Milwaukee is 32-32 on road.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 42-119
— record in first 5 innings: 52-43-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-4.2

— Steele is 0-0, 1.62 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 10-12 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-22
— record in first 5 innings: 8-9-5
— He is 1-1, 3.66 in four starts vs Milwaukee TY.

— Cubs are 11-4 in their last fifteen games.
— Cubs are 26-34 at home.
— under 25-13-4 last 42 games
— scored run in first inning: 40-119
— record in first 5 innings: 48-53-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5.1-3.1

San Francisco (59-61) @ Colorado (53-69)
— Junis is 0-2, 4.64 in his last five starts.
— Giants are 7-5 in his starts
— over 5-3-1 last nine starts
— allowed run in first inning: 0-12
— record in first 5 innings: 6-5-1
— He is 0-0, 1.69 in one start vs Colorado.

— Giants lost their last four games.
— San Francisco is 25-32 on road.
— under 5-1-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 26-120
— record in first 5 innings: 48-51-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-4.1-2.2

— Freeland is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts.
— Colorado is 4-1 in his last five home starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-3
— He is 7-4, 3.98 in 18 starts vs San Francisco.

— Colorado is 10-20 in its last 30 games.
— Rockies are 35-30 at home.
— over 10-6-1 last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-119
— record in first 5 innings: 33-64-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6.1-2.1-4

St Louis (68-51) @ Arizona (55-65)
— Quintana is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
— St Louis is 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 0-2, 8.57 in four starts vs Arizona.

— Cardinals are 15-3 in their last 18 games.
— St Louis is 28-30 on road.
— over 8-4 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 42-119
— record in first 5 innings: 56-43-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-1-4.2

— Kelly is 3-0, 1.53 in his last seven starts.
— Arizona is 3-6 in his last nine home starts
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-6
— He is 2-1, 3.00 in three starts vs St Louis.

— Diamondbacks are 9-7 in last 16 games.
— Arizona is 32-31 at home.
— under 8-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 36-120
— record in first 5 innings: 47-42-31
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-3.2-3.2

Washington (41-81) @ San Diego (66-57)
— Corbin is 0-6, 11.39 in his last seven starts.
— Nationals are 1-10 in his last 11 starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 9-24
— record in first 5 innings: 5-17-2
— He is 7-9, 4.51 in 17 starts vs San Diego.

— Washington is 4-4 in its last eight games.
— Nationals are 22-37 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-122
— record in first 5 innings: 31-76-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4.2-3

— Manaea is 1-1, 8.05 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 6-1 in his last seven home starts.
— over 15-3-1 last 19
— allowed run in first inning: 8-22
— record in first 5 innings: 6-12-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Padres are 2-4 in last six games.
— San Diego is 34-26 at home.
— over 14-10-1 last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-121
— record in first 5 innings: 55-38-28
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 0.2-4-3

Miami (52-68) @ Los Angeles (83-36)
— Alcantara is 2-1, 1.52 in his last three starts.
— Marlins are 15-9 in his starts.
— under 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 4-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-9
— He is 0-2, 14.81 in three starts vs Los Angeles.

— Miami is 12-29 in its last 41 games.
— Marlins are 27-35 on road.
— under 15-3-2 last 20 games.
— scored run in first inning: 18-120
— record in first 5 innings: 44-54-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-1.2-5

— Pepiot is 1-0, 4.15 in six starts (26 IP).
— Dodgers are 4-2 in his starts
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.

— Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 games.
— Los Angeles is 42-15 at home.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 44-119
— record in first 5 innings: 71-28-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2-4

American League
White Sox (62-59) @ Cleveland (64-56)
— Cease is 5-1, 1.30 in his last seven starts.
— White Sox are 10-2 in his last 12 starts.
— under 5-3 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 14-9-1
— He is 2-1, 2.12 in three starts vs Cleveland TY.

— White Sox are 21-14 in their last 35 games.
— Chicago is 32-28 on road.
— under 15-7-3 last 25 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-121
— record in first 5 innings: 49-56-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-2.1-0.1

— Civale is 0-0, 2.00 in his last four starts (18 IP).
— Guardians are 7-7 in his starts.
— under 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 3-6-5
— He is 4-3, 5.00 in eight starts vs Chicago.

— Guardians are 10-4 in their last 14 games.
— Cleveland is 32-25 at home.
— under 10-3-1 last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 37-120
— record in first 5 innings: 48-47-25
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-2.2

Toronto (65-54) @ New York (73-48)
— Manoah is 1-1, 4.86 in his last three starts.
— Blue Jays are 3-6 in his last nine starts
— under 15-8
— allowed run in first inning: 3-23
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-5
— He is 1-2, 2.60 in three starts vs New York TY.

— Blue Jays are 6-8 in their last 14 games.
— Toronto is 29-29 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 40-119
— record in first 5 innings: 47-45-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-2-5

— Cortes is 0-1, 3.93 in his last three starts.
— New York is 15-8 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 11-6-5
— He is 0-1, 2.16 in two starts vs Toronto TY.

— New York is 3-14 in its last 17 games.
— New York is 42-20 at home.
— under 8-2-1 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 41-121
— record in first 5 innings: 57-39-25
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3

LA Angels (52-68) @ Detroit (46-76)
— Ohtani is 1-1, 2.55 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 1-4 in his last five starts
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-5
— He is 2-0, 1.42 in three starts vs Detroit

— Angels lost four of last five games.
— Angels are 25-33 on road.
— over 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 36-120
— record in first 5 innings: 55-48-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-0-3.2

— Rodriguez is 1-3, 6.00 in eight starts TY.
— Tigers are 2-6 in his starts.
— His last start was May 19.
— over 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-6
— He is 1-2, 9.24 in three starts vs Anaheim.

— Tigers are 10-28 in their last 38 games.
— Detroit is 27-34 at home.
— under 17-4-2 last 23 games
— scored run in first inning: 24-122
— record in first 5 innings: 39-64-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-3

Kansas City (49-73) @ Tampa Bay (64-55)
— Greinke is 1-2, 3.29 in his last five starts.
— Royals are 1-5 in his last six road starts
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-4
— He is 4-6, 3.36 in 14 starts vs Tampa Bay

— Kansas City is 2-7 in its last nine games.
— Royals are 20-39 on road.
— over 14-9-1 last 24 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-122
— record in first 5 innings: 46-57-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-4.1

— bullpen game

— Tampa Bay is 10-6 in its last 16 games.
— Rays are 37-23 at home.
— under 11-7-3 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-119
— record in first 5 innings: 55-42-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-3.1

Texas (54-66) @ Minnesota (62-56)
— Arihara allowed 3 runs in 5.2 IP in his first ‘22 start.
— Rangers are 0-1 in his starts
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Minnesota.

— Rangers are 18-29 in last 47 games.
— Texas is 27-32 on road.
— over 7-4-2 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-120
— record in first 5 innings: 41-53-26
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-4.1

— Ryan is 3-0, 2.60 in his last five home starts.
— Twins are 6-3 in his last nine starts
— under 11-8
— allowed run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

— Minnesota won four of last five games.
— Twins are 35-26 at home.
— over 21-13-2 last 36 games
— scored run in first inning: 40-118
— record in first 5 innings: 62-39-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6.2-3.2-5

Seattle (66-55) @ A’s (44-77)
— Castillo is 1-0, 2.18 in three starts for Seattle.
— Seattle is 3-0 in his starts
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Oakland.

— Mariners are 11-6 in their last 17 games.
— Seattle is 35-29 on road.
— over 10-2-2 last 14 road games
— scored run in first inning: 37-121
— record in first 5 innings: 47-53-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3.2-4

— Sears is 3-0, 0.86 in four starts TY.
— A’s are 2-0 in his starts
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— A’s are 3-11 in their last 14 games.
— Oakland is 18-39 at home.
— under 36-21-3 last 60 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-121
— record in first 5 innings: 39-64-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3-5

Boston (60-61) vs Baltimore (62-58) (@ Williamsport, PA)
— Pivetta is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
— Red Sox are 3-5 in his last eight starts.
— over 12-3-1 last 16 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-24
— record in first 5 innings: 8-11-5
— He is 1-1, 3.48 in two starts vs Baltimore TY.

— Red Sox are 6-3 in last nine games.
— Boston is 31-31 on road.
— over 3-1 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-121
— record in first 5 innings: 47-47-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4.1-3.1

— Kremer is 2-2, 4.63 in his last four starts.
— Orioles are 8-5 in his starts.
— under 9-4
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 3-6-4
— He is 0-3, 9.45 in three starts vs Boston.

— Orioles are 4-6 in their last ten games.
— Baltimore is 34-23 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 24-120
— record in first 5 innings: 46-55-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5-3.2

Interleague game
Houston (77-45) @ Atlanta (75-47)
— Urquidy is 3-0, 2.51 in his last five starts.
— Astros are 8-3 in his last 11 starts
— under 5-1 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 16-5-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta.

— Astros are 13-10 in their last 23 games.
— Houston is 38-27 on road.
— over 7-4-1 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 42-122
— record in first 5 innings: 73-33-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-3

— Morton is 1-0, 2.33 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 12-6 in his last 18 starts
— over 17-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 9-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-9-2
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 starts vs Houston.

— Braves are 11-1 in their last dozen games.
— Atlanta is 42-23 at home.
— over 18-10-3 last 31 games
— scored run in first inning: 33-122
— record in first 5 innings: 66-42-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:29 AM

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Picks: Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 12-4-10-3
Race 2: 5-2-7-6
Race 3: 4-8-5-3
Race 4: 1-4-3-7
Race 5: 7-4-8-3
Race 6: 8-5-9-1
Race 7: 3-9-6-7
Race 8: 5-2-8-3
Race 9: 11-1-6-3
Race 10: 8-5-10-2
Most Likely Winner: Colonel Bowman #1 (Race 4)
Best Value: Albizu #7 (Race 5)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:30 AM

Monmouth Park Picks: Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-4-3
Race 2: 5-6-7-1
Race 3: 7-6-3-4
Race 4: 6-7-8-1
Race 5: 8-4-2-6
Race 6: 2-1-4-5
Race 7: 3-7-4-1
Race 8: 6-7-4-8
Race 9: 6-1-7-3
Race 10: 1-7-2-4
Most Likely Winner: Devious Dame (Race 9)
Best Value: No Confession (Race 2)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:30 AM

Mountaineer Park Picks - Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 1-6-5-10
Race 2: 7-1-8-2
Race 3: 2-5-10-9
Race 4: 2-1-7-3
Race 5: 1-3-6-4
Race 6: 1-3-2-6
Race 7: 1-6-3-4
Race 8: 5-2-1-8
**Most Likely Winner: Ambassador Jim (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Wicked Valentine (Race 8)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:30 AM

Saratoga Picks: Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 5-8-3-4
Race 2: 6-2-7-1
Race 3: 2-4-3-1/1A
Race 4: 3-7-4-8
Race 5: 8-3-10-2
Race 6: 5-7-2-8
Race 7: 2-7-3-4
Race 8: 8-3-2-5
Race 9: 10-2-3-6
Race 10: 9-5-8-3
Most Likely Winner: Baba #8 (Race 8)
Best Value: Tiberius Mercurius #8 (Race 5)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:30 AM

Woodbine Picks - Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 7-9-2-3
Race 2: 3-7-4-5
Race 3: 4-3-6-5
Race 4: 5-1-2-3
Race 5: 12-2-11-5
Race 6: 5-12-1-4
Race 7: 9-6-4-5
Race 8: 2-3-5-7
Race 9: 2-3-8-6
Race 10: 8-6-11-4
Race 11: 3-1-9-2
Race 12: 12-2-3-8
Race 13: 5-10-7-6
**Most Likely: Filo Di Arianna (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Soup And Sandwich (Race 12)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:31 AM

Queen’s Plate Post Draw Reaction
by Jeremy Plonk

Sunday’s 163rd edition of the Queen’s Plate, Canada’s most prestigious race, attracted a field of 11 contenders at today’s post-position draw ceremony. Moira, the Woodbine Oaks-winning filly, landed in post 8 and has been deemed the 5-2 morning line favorite by track oddsmaker Ernie Perry. The daughter of Ghostzapper could become the 38th filly to win the Queen’s Plate.

Bettors playing the Queen’s Plate with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of $20,000 in Hit & Split bonuses surrounding the day’s key bets and races.

Moira’s late-running style should not be impacted from her draw in post 8. The pace of the Queen’s Plate likely comes from Marine front-runner and beaten favorite Ironstone in post 3. Todd Pletcher’s New York-based Causin’ Mayhem set the tempo in the Plate Trial and his task becomes a bit tougher from post 11 on Sunday, though there’s a long run to the clubhouse turn. Marine winner Rondure, second choice in the morning line at 3-1, is drawn fine in post 6 with a style to stalk or close, and starting to the outside of Ironstone. He’ll partner with Flavien Prat.

Duke of Love begins from post 5 for 3-time Queen’s Plate-winning trainer Josie Carroll. The Cupid colt was runner-up in the Marine before a disappointing fourth in the Plate Trial with traffic excuses. Plate Trial winner Sir for Sure can give Mark Casse a third Queen’s Plate trophy if successful from post 10.

Sunday’s Woodbine program begins at 1:00 pm ET first post time. The undercard includes the Grade 2 Canadian, Grade 2 King Edward and the Sweet Brian Too Stakes.

Woodbine // Sunday, August 21, 2022 // $1 million Queen’s Plate // 1-1/4 miles (Tapeta)

1. Hall of Dreams // Mark Casse // Patrick Husbands // 12-1 ML
2. Shamateur // Sid Attard // Luis Contreras // 30-1 ML
3. Ironstone // W.V. Aramata // Kazushi Kimura // 12-1 ML
4. The Minskter // Danny Vella // David Maran // 10-1 ML
5. Duke of Love // Josie Carroll // Justin Stein // 5-1 ML
6. Rondure // Katarina Vassilieva // Flavien Prat // 3-1 ML
7. Dancin In Da’Nile // Gail Cox // Shaun Bridgmohan // 30-1 ML
8. Moira // Kevin Attard // Rafael Hernandez // 5-2 ML
9. Hunt Master // Angus Buntain // Emma-Jayne Wilson // 30-1 ML
10. Sir for Sure // Mark Casse // Declan Carroll // 8-1 ML
11. Causin’ Mayhem // Todd Pletcher // Antonio Gallardo // 6-1 ML

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:31 AM

Race of the Week: Queen's Plate at Woodbine | Sunday, August 21, 2022
by Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Canada's most prestigious horse race kicks off its annual Triple Crown series Sunday when the Queen's Plate will be renewed for the 163rd time. Woodbine's 4 stakes card includes the Grade 2 Canadian and Grade 2 King Edward on turf, but it's the sophomores on Tapeta that will be out to make history. The 1-1/4 miles Queen's Plate will be in front of a full grandstand for the first time since 2019.

Bettors playing the Queen's Plate with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a whopping $20,000 in Hit & Split bonuses surrounding the day’s key bets and races.

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner RONDURE won the key open-company prep for this race restricted to Canadian foals. IRONSTONE is multiple Grade 3-placed. MOIRA won the Woodbine Oaks against Canadian-foaled fillies, but also is G3-placed in open company. SIR FOR SURE upset the Plate Trial against many of these.

Pace:
IRONSTONE went to the front in the Marine like a rocketship, and from post 3 the 7-time sprinter in 9 starts likely will make the pace. CAUSIN' MAYHEM set a slow pace in the Plate Trial, but has 45-and-change dirt speed from Belmont and absolutely could contend for the lead. The pace should be above-average for 1-1/4 miles if IRONSTONE pulls the same early stunt.

Our Eyes:
Race replay study of the July 2 Marine and July 24 Plate Trial covers 8 of the 11 contenders. Here are my key takeaways.

Marine: DUKE OF LOVE had a horrendous start and first quarter-mile, though the past performance short comments pay it no homage. The start was far more consequential. RONDURE got a dream trip, first-over behind the runaway early speedster and took over with authority. He finished up far flashier to the eye than the Plate Trial alumni. The only negative is that Marine runner-up DUKE OF LOVE acme back to a troubled and disappointing fourth in the Plate Trial, so how good was the Marine field that RONDURE dusted? That's a fair question, but the winner sure looked strong.

Plate Trial: THE MINSKTER was the 9-5 favorite and are held from tackling the leaders through the stretch the first time. Jockey David Moran didn't do him any favors for the first half-mile, and was left empty late. He could improve with a more hands-off ride. No excuses for the front-running pair of CAUSIN' MAYHEM or DANCIN IN DA'NILE, which makes it hard to play them back at a furlong farther. SIR FOR SURE and HALL OF DREAMS had not done much prior and visually didn't impress. The only Plate Trial alumni to interest would be THE MINKSTER and perhaps a rebound effort from the twice-troubled DUKE OF LOVE. The latter is trained by 3-time Queen's Plate winner Josie Carroll.

MOIRA (pictured above) is the new face and wildcard. Fillies have had plenty of success in the Queen's Plate, including recent years, so scoff not at the Woodbine Oaks winner. She was patient, saved ground, absorbed the kickback and didn't find jockey Rafael Hernandez at all. She responded nicely just beyond the half-mile marker and sustained a 3-1/2 furlong run out in the clear while swallowing the field and just naming her margin. She should get a great pace set-up for her finishing kick, which has seen here a mere half-length from perfection in 4 starts.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
MOIRA looked the part in the Woodbine Oaks and the additional furlong should not be a major hurdle.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
THE MINKSTER at 10-1 morning line is worth a rebound look at a price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 exacta MOIRA over DUKE OF LOVE. $20 exacta MOIRA over THE MINKSTER. $10 trifecta MOIRA over RONDURE over DUKE OF LOVE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:31 AM

Saratoga Picks: Bolton Landing Stakes the focus on August 21
By J.N. Campbell

Saratoga Picks: Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 5-8-3-4
Race 2: 6-2-7-1
Race 3: 2-4-3-1/1A
Race 4: 3-7-4-8
Race 5: 8-3-10-2
Race 6: 5-7-2-8
Race 7: 2-7-3-4
Race 8: 8-3-2-5
Race 9: 10-2-3-6
Race 10: 9-5-8-3
Most Likely Winner: Baba #8 (Race 8)
Best Value: Tiberius Mercurius #8 (Race 5)

Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Baba #8, 3/1):

The Black Sheep Squadron folks own some nice stock, and I like their chances in this spot. Most bettors will have heard of the woes of one Rudy Rodriguez. His horses are not running to orders, and something is amiss. However, let’s not dwell on the macro-problems of this stable, and instead take each runner individually. I do like the offspring of Uncle Mo, one of the best sires in this era. A former claimer, she showed some early speed in her Belmont races. I particularly like that she has a win over the Saratoga track. The hustle and budding talent of Jose Gomez is fun to watch. This runner is a good bet at a square price …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #8

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Tiberius Mercurius #8, 8/1):

Looking for some value on this Saratoga card, I would not negate the power of this 6-yr-old from Mike Maker’s midst. I realize that the son of The Factor has dropped way down from his prior levels. It was the spring when he competed against tough OC and ALLW Co. We know that this trainer can be “live” at any given moment, and he always pairs well with Three Diamonds Farm. Dropping further, the horse still has 2-turn capability, and with Luis Saez in the irons, this is a great play. Most will think that his Clm40k effort was very poor last out at Saratoga, but this is turf racing … always a chance for redemption.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #8 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:31 AM

Sale racing tips, top odds & quaddie picks | Sunday, August 21
August 19, 2022 12:16 pm.
James Herbert

What Sale Races
Where Sale Turf Club – 1227 Maffra-Sale Rd, Sale VIC 3850
When Sunday, August 21, 2022
First Race 12:35pm AEST
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Visit Ladbrokes

Sale Turf Club is scheduled to host a competitive eight-race card this Sunday afternoon on a predicted Heavy 9 track. In recent times it has been advantageous to be up on speed at Sale, and with the rail in the true position for this meeting, we expect that trend to continue once again. The day of racing is set to get underway at 12:35pm AEST, while the quaddie kicks off at 2:55pm.
Best Bet at Sale – Appealing

The Archie Alexander-trained Appealing is the first horse we find in the race book, and he looks to be a clear best bet of the day. The five-year-old mare has finished second at each of her last three starts and gets her chance to bring up a deserved maiden win at start five. With speed drawn either side of the mare, jockey Declan Bates will look to camp on the heels of those leaders so when the moment arises, Appealing will be ready to strike inside the final furlong. She got swamped inside the final 50m at Bendigo on June 30 after hitting the front too early in the home straight and being left vulnerable. If Bates can have her finding the lead inside the last 200m, the even-money quote with online Bookmakers looks… Appealing.
Best Bet

Race 1 – Silk #1 Appealing (4)

5yo Mare | T: Archie Alexander | J: Declan Bates (58kg)

$2 with Ladbrokes
Next Best at Sale – Brookline

We will be hoping it is a successful day for the Archie Alexander and Declan Bates combination as they also combine with Brookline in the opening leg of the quaddie. The five-year-old mare managed to string together consecutive victories this campaign before heading to Flemington, where she chased home the likes of My Yankee Girl and Bella Rouge. Both of those runners would be short odds-on favourites with online betting sites in a race like this, so we expect Brookline to bounce back into the winner’s stall. With all three of her career victories coming on rain-affected going, including two wins from as many starts on Heavy tracks, we are certain she will handle the conditions in front of her at Sale. Bates had Brookline settled in the lead and then outside the leader for those two consecutive victories, and if the mare can be afforded the luxury of leading or settling outside the leader once again, she will be tough to beat.
Next Best

Race 5 – Silk #3 Brookline (6)

4yo Mare | T: Archie Alexander | J: Declan Bates (60kg)

$4.40 with Bet365
Best Value at Sale – Velicina

We were with the Matthew Brown-trained Velicina when she resumed from a long spell at Bairnsdale on July 26, and the performance suggested she was in need of the run and could be ready to fire next start. She was beaten under a half-length on that day in Heavy going, so we expect she will handle the conditions with aplomb on Sunday. In a race where there does not appear to be too much early speed, look for Zac Spain to have this mare settled in the one-one throughout. She has a win and two minor placings from four goes on Heavy ground, and considering the two main market fancies are yet to race on a Heavy, Velicina looks to be a great play at a nice price in the penultimate event.
Best Value

Race 7 – Silk #11 Velicina (7)

5yo Mare | T: Matthew Brown | J: Zac Spain (56kg)

$9 with Unibet
Sunday quaddie tips for Sale
Sale quadrella selections

Sunday, August 21, 2022

3-4
1-2-4-7
2-6-11
2-7-10-12

Investment: $96 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:32 AM

The Sunday Special & Picks – Aug. 21
August 20, 2022 - News - Tom Law

And then there were two. Well, almost two. Weeks that is, remaining in the 2022 Saratoga Race Course meeting.

Where did your summer go? Where did ours go? OK, maybe we won’t get into the trials and tribulations that went into the 22nd season of The Saratoga Special. We have four issues remaining, and big ones indeed.

But first there’s the final day of Week 5 to finish up and a 10-race card topped by the eighth running of the $150,000 Bolton Landing Stakes for 2-year-old fillies sprinting on the grass. Who’s been to Bolton Landing? We suggest a trip up, perhaps on the upcoming dark days.

Here are the picks for Sunday, Aug. 21. Good luck.

JOHN SHAPAZIAN (93/286):
1-Hay Stack, Hola Gata, Corningstone.
2-Deep Cover, Phantom Smoke, Yarrow.
3-Forty Smooth, Red Pepper Grill, Photos entry.
4-Icon, Arthurian, Vincent.
5-Devamani, Attentive, Grand Journey.
6-Rarify, Spelterini, Good Sam.
7-Balthus, Reigning Spirit, Founder.
8-Repealing, Awesome Indra, Baba.
9-Loves Reigns, Sweet Harmony, Kerry.
10-Vagaries, Empress Theodora, Candlestick Maker.

TOM LAW (88/286):
1-Cookie Crumbs, Pleasant Passage, Hay Stack.
2-Phantom Smoke, Yarrow, Bustin Shout.
3-Forty Smooth, Linny Kate, My Girl Lexi.
4-Icon, Vincent, El Segundo.
5-Grand Journey, Attentive, Devamani.
6–Spelterini, Rarify, Grand Love.
7-Reigning Spirit, Balthus, Mud Pie.
8-Repealing, Baba, Chloe Rose.
9-Love Reigns, Sweet Harmony, Aztec Nights.
10-Vagaries, Candlestick Maker, Empress Theodora.

CHARLES BEDARD (75/286):
1-Misintention, Cookie Crumbs, Hay Stack.
2-Phantom Smoke, Quickflash, Yarrow.
3-Englehart entry, My Girl Lexi, Forty Smooth.
4-Icon, Vincent, Arthurian
5-Grand Journey, Monarchs Glen, Devamani.
6-Spelterini, Rarify, Grand Love.
7-Claytnthelionheart, Kinenos, Mud Pie.
8-Baba, Repealing, Awesome Indra.
9-Redifined, Sweet Harmony, Love Reigns.
10-Miscreant, Vagaries, Candlestick Maker.

ROB WHITLOCK (79/286):
1-Hola Gata, Positive Message, Pleasant Passage.
2-Phantom Smoke, Bustin Shout, Yarrow.
3-Forty Smooth, Englehart entry, My Girl Lexi.
4-Icon, Vincent, Matty’s Maurauder.
5-Grand Journey, Devamani, Tiberius Mercurius.
6-Spelterini, Rarify, Grand Love.
7-Reigning Spirit, Tide Of The Sea, Ajourneytofreedom.
8-Repealing, To A T, Baba.
9-Aztec Nights, Redifined, Kerry.
10-Candlestick Maker, Vagaries, Miscreant.

JESSICA PAQUETTE (66/286):
1-Positive Message, Pleasant Passage, Hay Stack.
2-Deep Cover, Phantom Smoke, Yarrow.
3-Forty Smooth, Veradia, Red Pepper Grill.
4-Icon, Arthurian, Nature Boy.
5-Grand Journey, Devamani, Monarch’s Glen.
6-Grand Love, Good Sam, Rarify.
7-Balthus, Founder, Tide Of The Sea.
8-Exxaltress, Repealing, Chloe Rose.
9-Danse Macabre, Grand Oak, Redefined.
10-Miscreant, Ironic Lady, Vagaries.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:32 AM

Marcus Townend and Laurie Brannan's racing tips: Best bets for Sunday, August 21

By Marcus Townend For The Mail On Sunday

Sportsmail's racing experts Marcus Townend and Laurie Brannan dish out their tips for Sunday's meetings at Brighton, Sandown, and Yarmouth.

BRIGHTON

MARCUS TOWNEND

2.45 Batchelor Boy

LAURIE BRANNAN

2.15 Betweenthesticks

SANDOWN

MARCUS TOWNEND

5.42 Follow That Star

LAURIE BRANNAN

6.12 Ikhtiraaq

YARMOUTH

MARCUS TOWNEND

5.06 Available Angel

LAURIE BRANNAN

3.36 Aletoile

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:32 AM

Spa selections 2022: Saratoga picks August 21
Joseph Aiello

Spa selections 2022: Saratoga picks August 21
In Spa Selections, our correspondent provides his Saratoga picks for key races on today’s Saratoga card!

Race 8 – Alw 115000n1x

1. #8 Baba (3-1) – Typically only wins if he breaks to the lead, but his race last time was one of the stronger of this field even in a narrow defeat, and can go gate to wire with the right fractions

2. #2 Repealing (8-5) – Might be best sitting in second or third here instead of grabbing the early lead, but still looks vulnerable here even with plenty of others who have questions

3. #4 Chloe Rose (10-1) – Has run her best at Saratoga, also finishing in the money in six of seven at this distance but takes a slight step up here

4. #5 Exxaltress (6-1) – Got crushed in a stakes field last time, but should improve with the drop here and has a race two back that puts her in the mix

Race 9 – Bolton Landing Stakes

1. #9 Sweet Harmony (8-1) – Sat off a quick pace last time in a stakes race and won by a length, and can win here with a similar trip and stalking running style

2. #2 Love Reigns (2-1) – Wesley Ward has fared well in this race in the past, and this is his top entry that drops from a grade II try and has the talent to go gate to wire here

3. #6 Aztec Nights (10-1) – Had a sharp debut and got a win over this track, plus should be solid value here with just one start

4. #5 Grand Oak (8-1) – Probably won’t win with a front end type trip, but could be a contender with a stalking or closing trip if the pace set up is right

Race 10 – MC 40000

1. #9 Candlestick Maker (9-2) – Seems to be improving at the right time and has the form to be able to beat this field even coming from maiden claimers

2. #8 Vagaries (8-5) – Gets the class drop to claiming company and maybe ran her best as a deep closer which could be tough here in a field of eleven

3. #6 Miscreant (10-1) – Took a slight step forward when switching to the turf, and gets Jose Ortiz here who can place this filly more forward this time

4. #5 Empress Theodora (5-1) – Was competitive first time out in this class, struggling when moving up to open maidens so should run better moving back down

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2022, 09:33 AM

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Sunday, August 21
Posted on August 19, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 5: REUX (#1)

The obvious horse to beat in this $32k claimer is Devamani (#3), winner of the Grade 2 Knickerbocker and Grade 3 Monmouth Stakes, who is dropping down significantly after having plenty of success for these connections. He just hasn’t come back in the same form now that he’s an 8-year-old. For what it’s worth, Chad Brown is 6 for 10 (60%, $3.25 ROI) with non-maidens getting 50% claiming tag dropdowns over the past 5 years. He’s a deserving favorite, but I am a little concerned about his running style in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. The other noteworthy dropdown in this field is Monarchs Glen (#10). However, his recent form leaves a lot to be desired and he’s another lacking early speed. Mertkan Kantarmaci has entered two uncoupled runners for turf and I think they’re both fairly interesting. Attentive (#3) looks logical as he drops slightly off the claim for $40k last time. I thought he put in a decent effort, and he also feels like one that can be slightly more forward than few other contenders. My top pick is Reux (#1). I know his recent form looks terrible, but he feels like the potential controlling speed in this race. I also like him stretching out in distance, since he was most effective at a mile and beyond when racing overseas earlier in his career. Kantarmaci has deceptively strong statistics off the claim on turf, especially over the past two years. He’s showing an improved worktab for this race, and may be ready for a step forward at a big price.

RACE 7: TIDE OF THE SEA (#4)

Balthus (#3) just seems to be putting it all together for Chad Brown. This well-bred son of Galileo returned as a new horse since getting gelded and adding blinkers. He’s also responded well to the gradual stretch-out in distance, and seems like one that will relish today’s 1 1/2 miles. However, he was almost 6-1 when he won last time, and now he’ll be a fraction of that price while stepping up to face a tougher field. I don’t doubt that he’s the horse to beat, but I just didn’t feel compelled to throw more support towards him at a shorter price. I do much prefer him to the possible second choice Reigning Spirit (#7). This horse got the right trip last time the Louisville. Though he was wide for much of his trip, he stayed out of trouble in race where many others had to deal with traffic issues. He’s obviously better going longer, but I need some confirmation of that last-out improvement before backing him in a spot like this. I’m instead going in a different direction with Tide of the Sea (#4). It’s possible that this 6-year-old’s career is simply finished, as his recent turf form has been pretty abysmal compared to the peak of his career. Yet now he’s been claimed by Tom Morley for Flying P Stables, a combination that has had plenty of success, especially in this situation. Morley is 16 for 57 (28%, $2.78 ROI) second off the claim over the past 3 years. He has rehabilitated a few runners for these connections, mostly recent Lure Stakes winner Dynadrive. Tide of the Sea didn’t actually run that badly on turf three back, and last time he actually showed some signs of life on dirt for these connections. He figures to be the controlling speed on the stretch-out.

RACE 9: DANSE MACABRE (#8)

Wesley Ward sends out two runners in this Bolton Landing, including likely favorite Love Reigns (#2), who is returning to the U.S. following a solid effort in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Her career debut at Keeneland was obviously very impressive, as she earned a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance. Ward has great stats with these types, as he is 12 for 22 (55%, $3.35 ROI) with 2-year-old foreign shippers over the past 5 years. A return to that form makes her an obvious contender, though I’m not sure she deserves to be an overwhelming favorite. This came up a pretty strong field for this type of race and there are definitely others to consider. Grand Oak (#5) didn’t run nearly as well as Love Reigns in that Queen Mary, but she figures to be more effective getting back to American racing. She showed promise in her first couple of starts and is sure to be a much better price. My top pick is Danse Macabre (#8). She showed ability in her debut when second to Schuylerville runner-up Summer Promise, and it felt like she really took a step forward on the turf last time. Though she broke her maiden at Colonial, she did so in a turf race that seems pretty strong for the level. She earned a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance, which is the highest number in this field. She drew away impressively in the lane and there were some significant gaps behind her, often a hallmark of a fast race. Trainer Kelsey Danner does excellent work with turf sprinters and is 5 for 19 (26%, $5.08 ROI) in turf sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years.

Sunday 8/21/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 8/21/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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