Sunday 8/21/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Ellis Park Picks - Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 4-5-8-1
Race 2: 7-2-5-1
Race 3: 10-2-1-5
Race 4: 6-5-1-2
Race 5: 8-7-1-2
Race 6: 2-5-9-7
Race 7: 1-2-6-4
Race 8: 3-5-1-6
**Most Likely Winner: Big Sport #7 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Bold Medication #10 (Race 3)**

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Guflstream Park Picks - Sunday, August 21, 2022

Race 1: 6-1-8-5
Race 2: 4-3-7-8
Race 3: 7-1-4-6
Race 4: 2-10-5-1
Race 5: 6-5-1-7
Race 6: 1-8-4-5
Race 7: 1-3-6-4
Race 8: 8-6-2-1
Race 9: 6-3-1-4
**Most Likely Winner: Stellarator #6 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Genuine Miss #7 (Race 3)**

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LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: AUGUST 21, 2022
John Piassek

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

4-10-8-5

We’re bringing it home with an 8-race program. #4 Please Marry Me (5-2) and #10 Karen’s Catita (8-1) are the only two coming in here off maiden-breaking wins. The former ran a game race in victory, setting the pace, falling back, and re-rallying for the score. She’s likely to set the pace once again. The latter improved dramatically in her second grass start at Delaware Park with an off-the-pace victory at 25-1. If Please Marry Me falters, Karen’s Catita will be one of the first to engage. #8 Love My Cat (6-1) makes her first start since June 19 and has shown promise on grass. She ran a decent brisnet figure of 67 in her last race, but it was a visually unimpressive performance where she was ninth, albeit against a strong n/w2L field. Still, she has it in her to close for a piece.

RACE 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

3-2-5-1

#3 Ladra de Fichi (2-1) has hit the board in all six of her starts without a win, rarely a great sign. However, she has improved noticeably in her last few starts, with back-to-back figures of 78 and 79. This daughter of multiple stakes winner Sweet On Smokey had to face Hoodooland last time, an odds-on choice who ran the field off their feet, but it doesn’t look like there’s anyone nearly that menacing in here. #2 M’Lady Thatcher (7-2) exits the same race as Ladra de Fichi and faded to third after showing brief speed. She’s run in the 70s in all five of her starts and is likely to fade behind Ladra de Fichi but hang on to complete the exacta. #5 Smart Eulee (7-2) chased the pace and finished second in a determined effort last time. Her figure of 72 was her best mark in months. Jevian Toledo gets the ride for the first time.

From the Spa: August 20 Midlantic-breds in Saratoga stakes
‘From the Spa’ keeps you up to speed with all the Midlantic-breds running in Saratoga stakes this summer.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

10-9-1-11

#10 Ghostly Night (12-1) comes in off a maiden-breaking score last out, where she dispatched Gift of Gab in a stretch duel then held off the late challenge of favored Made My Wish. Claudio Gonzalez claimed her out of that race. #9 Senson (5-1) gets back to grass after a few dirt starts, and has run a 77 and a 78 in her last two starts on this surface. She might be able to clear to the front and set the pace. #1 Loving Cup (9-2) drops from the $40,000 n/w2L level and hasn’t run worse than a 68 in three career outings.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-5-3-6

#1 Justinthenickoftime (8-5) has declined a bit in form, running an 81 in his last dirt start after grazing the low-90s earlier in the year, and turning in a very dull effort on grass last out. However, he’s switching back to his preferred surface and dropping in class. #5 Dolce Vita (9-2) took advantage of a rail-favoring track in his last start, battling on the pace towards the inside and drawing off to victory. However, there’s not much speed in this race, with his only serious front-end threat coming from a horse who hasn’t raced since April. As such, he could work out a similar trip here. #3 Aftermath (6-1) was pace-compromised in his last start but gets a rider switch to Jeiron Barbosa and races first off the claim by Gerald Brooks. When he got an honest pace to close into two races back, he won going away with an impressive 79.

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

1-3-4-6

#1 Night Boss (5-1) ran a career-best figure of 77 last out, when he closed for second in an oddly run race. A loose leader opened up a big margin and came back to the field, and while Night Boss closed well, he was outkicked by Lukie Dookie, who ran away and hid from them. Nonetheless, Night Boss is in improving form and should run on well here. #3 Grand Manner (6-1) gets back to grass and takes a career-low drop in class after previously racing at the $40,000-$45,000 level. He’s likely to set the early pace and can take them gate-to-wire if allowed to set modest fractions. #4 Solomon’s Choice (3-1) faded late after striking the front last out, but now cuts back from 1 1/16 miles and looks primed for a winning performance.

RACE 6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS

6-1-5-3

#6 Johnyz From Albany (3-1) is a first-time starter for trainer Dale Capuano, and an offspring of Monster Sleeping, a two-time Maryland Million Ladies champion. This gray gelding has had a string of sharp four-furlong workouts, with his most recent drill in 48 1/5 seconds. #1 Post Time (2-1) was purchased for $85,000 this spring by Hillwood Stable and now debuts for Brittany Russell. His dam, Vielsalm, won the 2014 All Brandy Stakes and has produced What Does It Take, who earned more than $100,000. Another gray, he’s worked very well recently, including a bullet five-furlong workout on August 7. #5 Johnnyfrenchfri (6-1) showed speed and held on for second in his debut at Penn National and has worked well since. He’ll try to build on that performance here.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-1-10-5

Three of the top four finishers from a Maryland-bred allowance race on August 7 are back here. #8 Tauber (5-2) got the job done that day, in his second start off the layoff. He had to check in the stretch but found a path between horses and got up for the victory. Of the horses, who finished behind him, I was most impressed with #1 Sue Loves Barbados (7-2), who came extremely wide from last and finished in a dead heat for third. He’s run at least an 83 in three of his four races this year. #10 Balistico (5-1) has improved his figure in each of his last three starts, including a sharp win against open claimers at Colonial Downs last out.

RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

7-2-4-1

One more to go, then it’s off to Timonium. #7 Foul Balls (3-1) was parked wide in her last start at this level but held on for second, matching the 67 that she earned in her debut. Has room to improve second off the layoff. #2 Tilted Tiara (2-1) adds blinkers for Claudio Gonzalez and has improved dramatically in each start, including a career-best 69 last out. #4 Lucky Lorraine (4-1) has consistent figures and good late speed but has raced just once since late February, a non-descript race on grass. She might need a start.

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What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Sunday, August 21, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:

Sixth Race – Post: 3:52 ET
Top Pick: 7-Spelterini (7/2)

There have been a number of tough and competitive juvenile maiden races this meeting (as always) and this one certainly falls into that category. As is our want, we’ll prefer a filly with a prior race over the track when making this daughter of Bernardini our top selection in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. An excellent runner-up from off the pace in her debut last month, she gets an extra furlong to work with today, and an impressive recent breeze since that outing tells us she’s ready to step forward in a big way. Worth noting is that the filly who finished just behind her in that race, Chocolate Gelato, came back to win her next race by a pole. Rarify also has a strong debut race underneath her, a runner-up effort behind the highly regarded Kaling in a hot race last month. The Wesley Ward barn has strong stats with second time starters (22%) and this daughter of Justify gives every indication that she’ll improve a bunch with distance and maturity. Among the newcomers, Rosie’s Alibi might be the most dangerous. She’s done everything asked of her in the morning for Todd Pletcher and is another highly regarded filly by Justify who could easily be this good.

Ninth Race: Post: 5:35 ET
Top Pick: 2-Love Reigns (2-1)

On pure form, this Wesley Ward-trained filly looks like a standout in this year’s renewal of the Bolton Landing Stakes. After breaking her maiden by almost 10 lengths in her debut at Keeneland, she ventured across the pond to finish a highly respectable fourth of 21 in the Queen Mary S.-G2 at Royal Ascot, a performance that if repeated today would bury this group. Freshened since mid-June and training like she’s fit and ready (see below), the Irish-bred daughter of U S Navy Flag is listed at 2-1 on the morning line, and we’d love to get it in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 3-Hay Stack; 4-Pleasant Passage
2nd race: 7-Phantom Smoke; 6-Yarrow; 4-Lady’s Golden Guy
3rd race: 3-Forty Smooth 2-Viradia; 2-My Girl Lexi
4th race: 7-Icon; 3-El Segundo
5th race: 10-Monarch’s Glen; 6-Grand Journey; 3-Devamani; 2-Attentive

(Races 6-10)
6th race: 7-Spelterini 8-Rosie’s Alibi; 5-Rarify; 2-Grand Love
7th race: 1-Mud Pie; 2-Founder; 7-Reigning Spirit
8th race: 8-Baba; 2-Repealing
9th race: 2-Love Reigns
10th race: 8-Vagaries; 9-Candlestick Maker; 6-Miscreant

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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:

FIRST RACE:

Pleasant Passage (August 14, Saratoga, 4f, :48.2bg). Grade: B-
More Than Ready filly wasn’t ever really asked while inside and slightly second best with Spinzar (same time) and Self Confident (same time, last of the trio), steady splits, fair to moderate under the circumstances (didn’t change leads galloping out into the stretch). Hard to gauge but is bred to run long on the lawn and probably will show her best under those conditions.
View Workout Video

Cookie Crumbs (August 14, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Okay move inside Sister Maha (same time) for T. Pletcher, urged a bit through the lane to stay even to the wire before proving slightly best on the gallop out around dogs on turf. Has bit of ability but we’d prefer to see one first.
View Workout Video


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SIXTH RACE:

Good Sam (August 13, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1bg). Grade: B-
Under wraps throughout while even outside Occult (same time) for C. Brown, nice and relaxed throughout while able to go considerably quicker if turned loose. Has ability, has an athletic stride, and could be competitive vs. maidens sprinting or routing based on how she’s being trained.
View Workout Video

Grand Love (August 8, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.4b TT). Grade: B-
Good-sized daughter of Gun Runner was merely galloping outside Powerful (same time) for S. Asmussen, always in hand in good work before galloping out with energy. Suspect she’ll be best suited over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video

Rarify (August 7, Saratoga, 5f, :59.2b TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off several lengths behind Margaret Burbidge (5f, 1:01.1b TT) and inhaled that one through the lane under mild urging to draw far clear in the final stages, final quarter in :24.3 for Justify filly trained by W. Ward. Was beaten by a good filly when favored in debut but should step forward off that race and be dangerous vs. maidens next time out.
View Workout Video

Spelterini (August 12, Saratoga, 4f, :50b). Grade: B+
Under a nice hold throughout inside Milieu (same time) for W. Mott, quite eager and sharp while coming home in :25 flat very easily to prove clearly best. Daughter of Bernardini ran well when second in her debut in a hot race and clearly has come on since that outing. Nice prospect.
View Workout Video

Rosie’s Alibi (August 14, Saratoga, 4f, :48bg). Grade: B+
Even but best inside Alpha Bella (same time) in gate drill for T. Pletcher, displaying good gate speed while traveling well every step of the way, very nice for juvenile daughter of Justify. Plenty of potential and appears fit and ready.
View Workout Video

Peak Popularity (August 14, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.2b). Grade: B-
Even but second best inside Expected Value (same time) for C. Brown, niggled at late and weakening approaching the wire to breezing workmate, final quarter in :25.1. Probably should watch one first.
View Workout Video


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NINTH RACE:

Love Reigns (August 12, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b TT TC). Grade: B+
Breezing through the lane in solo training track turf drill for W. Ward looking fine while gearing up for first start since finishing a respectable fourth of 21 at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary S.-G2. Certainly will be the one to beat in the Bolton Landing S.

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What You Need to Know - Del Mar | Sunday, August 21, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

DEL MAR SPOTLIGHT RACES:

Third Race: Post: 3:06 PT
Top Pick: 8-For A Laugh (9/5)

English invader is fresh off the plane and ready to win right now in this maiden turf miler for juveniles. Technically sporting the highly productive two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle, the son of Australia exits a pair of hot races that produced Timeform ratings that suggest he will easily outclass this field. A very respectable fourth of five in the Superlative S.-G2 at Newmarket before being purchased private, the Simon Callaghan-trained colt had a nice, easy breeze last week to tick him over and with turf master Umberto Rispoli taking the call this promising colt looks very much like a short price worth taking.


Seventh Race – Post: 5:07 PT
Top Pick: 6-Home Cooking (2-1)

Trainer Bob Baffert holds the aces (as usual) in this maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, with preference on top going to the filly with a prior race under her belt. This daughter of Honor Code got caught in a torrid speed duel in her debut and paid the price late, weakening to finish third as the favorite in a strong affair that should prove highly productive. The blinkers off angle – one of our favorites – is another major plus, so at 2-1 on the morning line she’s a highly logical top selection. Stable mate 3-Muteki makes her first start, and if she runs as well as she trains the daughter of American Pharoah should be highly competitive. Purchased for $1 million at the OBS March sale, she’s plenty quick but can finish, too, and with a trouble-free trip could give ‘Cooking all she can handle. Also worth tossing in somewhere on your ticket is the debuting 9-House of Magic, a $200,000 OBS June sale purchase by Good Magic. She smoked a quarter mile in :20 4/5 during the preview session, so we know she can run.
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DEL MAR RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-4)
1st race: 10-Shemakescents; 11-Gypsy Lynn; 4-Big Jolt; 1-R Silver Flash
2nd race: 7-Italiano
3rd race: 8-For A Laugh
4th race: 5-Disc Jockey
5th race: 2-Disco Ball; 5-Handsome Cat; 7-Albizu

(Races 5-8)
6th race: 8-Rip City; 4-King Cause; 5-Flashiest
7th race: 6-Home Cooking; 3-Muteki; 9-House of Magic
8th race: 8-Eddie’s New Dream; 5-Rose Dawson; 7-Sassyserb
9th race: 11-Your Ringer 7-Smiling Thunder; 6-Keep Your Coil
10th race: 2-Gem Mine; 5-Dendera; 9-Claddagh Cure


DEL MAR WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:

THIRD RACE:

Argentina Cries (August 11, Del Mar, 6f, 1:14h). Grade: B-
Stride-for-stride inside Brand Loyalty (6f, 1:13.4h) while both being ridden pretty good out to the 7/8 pole, final three furlongs on our watches in :24.3 and :37.4, doing his best to the end for P. Miller. Juvenile son of Empire Maker has Kingmambo on the bottom side of his pedigree and therefore has a right to do better on grass. Brought $190,000 at the OBS April sale.
View Workout Video


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SEVENTH RACE:

Curl Girl (August 14, Del Mar, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B-
Can’t verify fast final time but wasn’t really asked much while clearly second best outside Classical Cat (same time), finishing a couple of lengths behind at the wire (workmate breezing, was debut winner yesterday, top prospect), final three furlongs in a solid :36.2. Curlin filly probably will do her best eventually over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video

Muteki (August 11, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B-
Gate work with Reincarnate (same time) for B. Baffert and was never permitted to show here best speed (neither was workmate), splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:00.2 on our watches, mild late coaxing with a fairly decent response. Guessing she might show her best stuff down the road on grass, perhaps over a distance of ground. Good prospect down the road.
View Workout Video

Electric Glide (August 7, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Stride-for-stride outside Hot Date (same time), both under mild coaxing only in the late stages, final three furlongs on our watches in :11.2 and :36.1, solid move. Pedigree suggests she should be at her best over a distance of ground. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

She’s Inthearmynow (August 11, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, best in gate drill with Zaccheus (5f, 1:02.4hg) for J. Wong, splits of :23.1, :34.3, :47.4 and 1:00.2 on our watches, ridden pretty good in the final couple of furlongs to be doing her best to the end. Definitely has some speed (bred for it), brought $140,000 at the OBS April sale, hard to say if she’s up to beating the monsters she’s likely to face in her debut on this circuit, though.
View Workout Video


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NINTH RACE:

Smiling Thunder (August 14, Del Mar, 4f, :46.4h). Grade: B
Blasted off from the pole and went fast early, then understandably slowed up late but wasn’t asked much in the final stages, final three furlongs on our watches in :11.2 and :35.3 on our watches, fairly decent under the circumstances. Bay area shipper should be competitive with modest claimers on this circuit.

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Why Play Today? Sunday, August 21, 2022

by Jeremy Plonk

EXTRA INCENTIVES
$4K Hit & Split | Woodbine | Early Pick 5 | begins Race 2 | 12:55 pm ET
$4K Hit & Split | Woodbine | Early Pick 4 | begins Race 4 | 1:55 pm ET
$4K Hit & Split | Woodbine | Middle Pick 5 | begins Race 6 | 2:32 pm ET
$4K Hit & Split | Woodbine | Late Pick 5 | begins Race 9 | 4:58 pm ET)
$4K Hit & Split | Woodbine | Late Pick 4 | begins Race 10 | 5:42 pm ET


NOTABLE CARRYOVERS
Pick 5 | Monmouth Park | $31,446 | begins Race 1 | 12:15 pm ET
Jackpot Pick 6 | Ferndale | $201,838 | begins Race 2 | 5:51 pm ET

KEY RACES
Monmouth | Race 9 | 4:15 pm ET | Sorority Stakes
Woodbine | Race 8 | 4:23 pm ET | Grade 2 King Edward Stakes
Woodbine | Race 9 | 4:58 pm ET | Grade 2 Canadian Stakes
Saratoga | Race 9 | 5:35 pm ET | Bolton Landing Stakes
Woodbine | Race 10 | 5:42 pm ET | $1 million Queen’s Plate
Del Mar | Race 8 | 8:37 pm ET | Solana Beach Stakes

WOODBINE – QUEEN’S PLATE MOST LIKELY WINNER FROM 1/ST BET
Woodbine | Race 10 | 5:42 pm ET | #6 Rondure | 30% Win Projection

SARATOGA – MOST LIKELY WINNER FROM 1/ST BET
Saratoga | Race 9 | 5:35 pm ET | #9 Sweet Harmony | 30% Win Projection

DEL MAR – MOST LIKELY WINNER FROM 1/ST BET
Del Mar | Race 8 | 8:37 pm ET | #5 Rose Dawson | 32% Win Projection

LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX
Saratoga | Race 5 | 3:18 pm ET
Woodbine | Race 7 | 3:43 pm ET
Del Mar | Race 9 | 9:06 pm ET

TRAINER TO WATCH
Mark Casse | Woodbine | 16 entrants on Queen’s Plate Day card, 7 at 5-1 or less

DID YOU SEE?
Yesterday | Gulfstream Park | Race 7 | $132 win & $78,129 superfecta payoffs (national bests)

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Saratoga: Key Horses for Sunday August 21
The Pony Conductor

Solid Saturday for the Ductor with Haughty and a few others finding the winners’ circle. The Ductor has no time for analysis, but he’ll say he likes today’s card even better. Let’s keep it rolling. Skip.

Race 3: #2 My Girl Lexi (5/1)

Race 7: *Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Founder (8/1)

Race 8: #8 Baba (3/1)

Race 9: #5 Grand Oak (8/1), #2 Love Reigns (2/1)

Race 10: #1 Ironic Lady (20/1), #6 Miscreant (10/1), #7 Hope Over Fear (15/1)

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Chicago Wsox w/Cease -125 over Cleveland

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, AUGUST 21, 2022
8/21 01:10 PM PT / 4:10 PM ET

MLB (911) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS (912) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Take: (912) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Reason: The Cardinals won their sixth straight game on Saturday with a win over the D'backs, 16-7. The Cards have taken over 1st place in the NL Central from Milwaukee, now leading the Brewers by 4-games. Jose Quintana will start today for the Red Birds. Quintana is 4-5 in his 23 starts with a 3.23 ERA. He's allowed two runs or fewer in five straight games. Arizona looks to salvage the rubber game of this series today. They will look to Merrill Kelly to do just that. Kelly is 10-5 in his 24 starts with a nifty 2.81 ERA. He's been even better of late going 3-0 in his last seven starts with a 1.53 ERA. We'll take a shot with the home dog here today. Your free play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO OVER the total of 8

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Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, AUGUST 21, 2022
FREE
NFLX
428. Giants -5.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

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Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies over 11 1/2

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Atlantic Sports

Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Seattle Storm - 3 1/2

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#1 Sports

Sunday's Free Play: Seattle Mariners - 200

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the San Francisco Giants -130 over Colorado