Saturday 10/8/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #31
    Keeneland Hotlist - October 8

    October 7, 2022

    Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
    Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022

    By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

    Hot List Key:

    A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
    *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
    *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
    * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

    2nd race – (5) Stay Fabulous is a firster from Asmussen who looks best in this spot. (12) Humbling put in a bullet work for this and could be the main rival. (10) Fame Street might fare better on dirt. (3) Magical Lute might rebound from a weak second try. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-10-12.

    5th race – (12) Osbourne was second or third in his last four starts and is overdue for a victory. (1) Implementation could be tough to catch from the rail. (8) Seal Beach can wake up in this spot. (4) Gulfstream Way has speed and can have a say in the outcome. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-8-12. Doubles: 1-4-8-12 with 2-4-7-9.

    6th race – (4) Golden Pal is a rare talent and looks best in the field as he preps for the Breeders’ Cup. (9) Cadamosto was second in his U.S. debut and can move forward off that try. (2) Bad Beat Brian won nicely last time and should be a contender here. (7) Artemus Citylimits is in great form and may not look back today. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-7-9.

    8th race – (5) Regal Glory was a game second against males in a grade 1 stakes and should prevail in a return to a filly and mare race. (4) In Italian has keen early speed and looks like the one to catch. (2) Princess Grace can work out a nice trip in this field. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5. Doubles: 2-4-5 with 2-7-8-10.

    9th race – (7) Forte looked good winning the Hopeful and seems to have the pedigree to handle the stretchout to two turns. (10) Lost Ark won the Sapling easily and should be a main threat here. (8) Newgate ships in from the West Coast for Baffert and is worth a long look. (2) Loggins was a powerful maiden winner and could be this good. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-8-10.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #32
      Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 8

      October 7, 2022

      Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, October 8, 2022
      By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

      Hot List Key:
      A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
      *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
      *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
      * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

      1st race [Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (10) Will Be Famous (B) was entered for the turf last time but had to race on a good sealed track a little over two weeks ago. Hopefully, she will get to race on the grass this time. (4) Lexi’s Spirit had a promising debut race when she rallied for eighth to fourth. Trainer Mark Hennig typically races his horses into shape. (2) Every Time set the pace in her first start at odds of 9-2 at Colonial Downs and finished fourth. (5) Love Tank set the pace at Kentucky Downs last time for Mike Maker. She was second at Belmont Park in her second start back in June. She should be on the lead again.

      8th race [Turf Classic (G1), 1
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #33
        Race of the Week: $1M Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland | Saturday

        October 5, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

        The Lead:
        Fall Stars Weekend at Keeneland provides the traditional kick-off to the Fall Meet. Saturday's loaded lineup of Breeders' Cup tune-ups includes the $1 million Coolmore Turf Mile, which has jumped sponsors from its former Shadwell Turf Mile that you may recall. But it's the same race -- if not better -- with a loaded cast in Race 10 of 11.

        Horseplayers on the Xpressbet and 1/ST BET platforms can take advantage of $30,000 in Hit & Split promotions this Friday, Saturday and Sunday at Keeneland. Hit the various pick 4s and pick 5s in the promo and add extra winnings to your parimutuel rake simply by playing with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET.

        ​Field Depth:
        ORDER OF AUSTRALIA is a G1 winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile over this course in 2020, while fellow G1 winners abound in CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, IVAR, SANTIN and CASA CREED. SET PIECE is a G2 winner and G1 placed, while G3 winner MASEN is a nose from G1 glory. This is a loaded lineup for G1-types only to be considered.

        Pace:
        It should be dynamite. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY and SMOOTH LIKE STRAIGHT on the inside are near-certain to set strong fractions. SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN is very quick when used, and pressers SANTIN and MASEN don't let the leaders get out of their sights. ANNAPOLIS does some of his best running near the front, though not a blazer. A strong finisher has a big chance.

        Our Eyes:
        Favorites have lost this race 7 years in a row with winners at 8-1, 9-1, 12-1, 14-1 and 23-1 during that span. You can take a short price if you wish, but read the warning label.

        ORDER OF AUSTRALIA's Keeneland forays are as opposing as can be, winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Mile and finishing last of 12 as the 6-5 favorite in this race last Fall Meet. His 2022 form in the UK and France indicates he's still inconsistent and trust runs shallow. Trainer Aidan O'Brien won this race in 2006 with Aussie Rules, but only 1 Euro has won it since.

        The Arlington Million wasn't its internationally strong self this year moved to Churchill on a convoluted mess of a turf course. But its 1-2 finishers SANTIN and SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT were their usual, reliable selves. But note those 9F returnees would buck history here as the last 10 winners of the Turf Mile exited preps between 1 mile and 1-1/16 miles. There are some major players here, including the 3-year-old CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, trying to shorten from farther trips than history embraces. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT may be best equipped of this trio to succeed, given his past miler success. He was third in Keeneland's Makers Mark Mile in the spring, beaten only a neck. In fact, his last 10 losses have been by just 6-1/4 combined lengths, while 2nd and 3rd place finishes in Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes. But the pace pressure will be hot for 'STRAIT and this complete trio.

        CASA CREED and MASEN rematch from a 1=3 finish in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. MASEN has the better Keeneland form on the change of venue, having missed by a nose in April's G1 Maker's Mark Mile. But MASEN loves to sit second and pounce, and that's going to be busy real estate against this pace lineup. The late run of CASA CREED gets the right set-up among this pair. MASEN's Chad Brown stablemate EMARRATY is pace-versatile, but with a wide draw it's going to be a tough decision and ground-loss opportunity Florent Geroux must avoid.

        Trainer Paulo Lobo won this race last year with In Love and 2 years ago with IVAR, the latter returning to the scene Saturday. He's the best closer in a field loaded with pace. Granted, he's just 1-for-6 since that signature '20 Fall Meet win locally, but his second to globetrotter Modern Games in the Woodbine Mile last month was promising. Another closer to watch is SET PIECE, who from the outside draw will drop back and make one late run under finishing maestro Joel Rosario. This sets up beautifully if he's on his best form.

        Most Certain Exotics Contender:
        Even with a tough pace assignment, it's hard to knock the consistent placings of SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT for a superfecta share.

        Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
        Kentucky Downs has produced 3 of the last 4 winners of this Keeneland opening weekend fixture. A closer via KD at a price would seem the proper fit if history has a say. GRAY'S FABLE has shown some effectiveness from off the pace in recent outings and was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Mint Million last out.

        Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
        $60 win IVAR. $10 exacta key-box IVAR with CASA CREED and SET PIECE ($20).
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        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 20541

          #34
          Free play from Mike Wynn

          Free Pick: Wake Forest -16 1/2

          Comment

          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 20541

            #35
            Free play from Totals4U

            Early Saturday's Free Selection: Louisville Cardinals/Virginia Cavaliers over 50 1/2

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            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 20541

              #36
              Free play from #1 Sports

              Early Saturday's Free Play: Cincinnati Bearcats - 27 1/2

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              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 20541

                #37
                Free play from Huddle Up Sports

                Saturday Free Play
                Ohio State -27

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                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 20541

                  #38
                  Free play from Kenny Towers

                  Your Free Pick for Saturday - Wake Forest -17

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                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 20541

                    #39
                    Free play from Hollywood Anthony

                    Your Free Play from Hollywood

                    MLB Take Western Kentucky +6

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                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 20541

                      #40
                      Free play from Roz Wins

                      ROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2022
                      FREE
                      CFB
                      386. Alabama -24 (5 PT / 8 ET)

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 20541

                        #41
                        Free play from Platinum Plays

                        Your Free Pick: the Air Force Falcons -10 1/2 over Utah St

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                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 20541

                          #42
                          Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter

                          Your free winner for Saturday : Take MISSISSIPPI -17 over Vanderbilt

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                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 20541

                            #43
                            Free play from Arthur Ralph

                            FreePlay 82-37 17-4 run Sat: Illinois -3 1/2

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                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 20541

                              #44
                              Free play from Vegas Steam Line

                              Your FREE WINNER for Saturday: Take KENTUCKY -6 over South Carolina

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                              • ConleyPicks
                                Senior Member
                                • Aug 2020
                                • 20541

                                #45
                                Free play from Razor Sharp

                                YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: CONNECTICUT -5 OVER FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL

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