Saturday 10/8/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:22 AM

Free play from Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Ohio Bobcats - 10 1/2

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:22 AM

Free play from Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2022
FREE
CFB
370. Arizona St +14 (1 PT / 4 ET)

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:23 AM

Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Buffalo Bulls - 2

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:23 AM

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Navy Midshipmen + 6

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:24 AM

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 8 KEENELAND RACECOURSE

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Gabby Gaudet	Kim Nelson
1	5 Pine Valley 2 Crow's Nest 8 Roan for the Rose	2 Crow's Nest 7 Morning Cup 8 Roan for the Rose	1 Celluloid Hero 2 Crow's Nest 5 Pine Valley	7 Morning Cup 5 Pine Valley 2 Crow's Nest	4 Bourbon On Fire 7 Morning Cup 5 Pine Valley
2	12 Humbling 4 Inventing Anna 11 Affirmative Lady	9 Alexa Lou 5 Stay Fabulous 12 Humbling	12 Humbling 7 Adiva 3 Magical Lute	3 Magical Lute 11 Affirmative Lady 4 Inventing Anna	12 Humbling 2 Work of Fiction 3 Magical Lute
3	7 Big Java 6 Bayshore Foxes 8 Feeling Happy	1 Social Mandate 2 Jumakan Bourbon 8 Feeling Happy	1 Social Mandate 6 Bayshore Foxes 7 Big Java	5 Mrs. Nushi 6 Bayshore Foxes 7 Big Java	6 Bayshore Foxes 1 Social Mandate 8 Feeling Happy
4	4 Tap in Formation 5 Jeremy's Jet 1 Prove Right	1 Prove Right 4 Tap in Formation 3 Hurricane J	1 Prove Right 4 Tap in Formation 6 Gold Luck	4 Tap in Formation 3 Hurricane J 1 Prove Right	4 Tap in Formation 3 Hurricane J 1 Prove Right
5	4 Gulfstream Way 12 Osbourne 11 Embrace	9 St Andrews 8 Seal Beach 6 Ben Diesel	12 Osbourne 11 Embrace 4 Gulfstream Way	1 Implementation 4 Gulfstream Way 12 Osbourne	4 Gulfstream Way 6 Ben Diesel 7 Button Boy
6	4 Golden Pal 9 Cadamosto (IRE) 2 Bad Beat Brian	4 Golden Pal 5 Gear Jockey 7 Artemus Citylimits	4 Golden Pal 9 Cadamosto (IRE) 5 Gear Jockey	4 Golden Pal 2 Bad Beat Brian 7 Artemus Citylimits	4 Golden Pal 7 Artemus Citylimits 5 Gear Jockey
7	2 Palm Cottage 7 Slammed 3 Club Car	5 Sconsin 9 Happy Soul 2 Palm Cottage	3 Club Car 4 Carribean Caper 5 Sconsin	5 Sconsin 7 Slammed 2 Palm Cottage	5 Sconsin 8 Joyful Cadence 1 Li'l Tootsie
8	5 Regal Glory 4 In Italian (GB) 3 Technical Analysis (IRE)	5 Regal Glory 3 Technical Analysis (IRE) 4 In Italian (GB)	4 In Italian (GB) 5 Regal Glory 3 Technical Analysis (IRE)	5 Regal Glory 4 In Italian (GB) 3 Technical Analysis (IRE)	5 Regal Glory 4 In Italian (GB) 6 Market Rumor
9	2 Loggins 1 Frosted Departure 5 Instant Coffee	2 Loggins 7 Forte 1 Frosted Departure	5 Instant Coffee 8 Newgate 7 Forte	2 Loggins 7 Forte 1 Frosted Departure	7 Forte 2 Loggins 11 Red Route One
10	7 Santin 2 Smooth Like Strait 9 Casa Creed	2 Smooth Like Strait 6 Ivar (BRZ) 3 Order of Australia (IRE)	6 Ivar (BRZ) 9 Casa Creed 2 Smooth Like Strait	9 Casa Creed 7 Santin 6 Ivar (BRZ)	9 Casa Creed 7 Santin 2 Smooth Like Strait
11	4 Rewire 2 Old Point 10 Cape Trafalgar	10 Cape Trafalgar 2 Old Point 4 Rewire	10 Cape Trafalgar 4 Rewire 2 Old Point	4 Rewire 8 Call Me Fast 2 Old Point	2 Old Point 10 Cape Trafalgar 4 Rewire

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:26 AM

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Freehold Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 10/08 FREEHOLD
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 7- - PACE 10/08 FREEHOLD
5 Candell 5/2 518.67 100 41.7 76.0 1:57.5 Marohn, Jim Jr 26
8 Gypsy Leather 6/1 473.19 80 20.0 77.5 B/F 1:58.4 Ginsburg, Vincent 15
6 Zindelight 15/1 450.56 90 10.0 71.4 1:57.9 Baynes, Ray 8
4 Instantaneous Cash 5/1 438.31 80 25.0 75.8 1:59.1 Beyer, Troy 15
7 Burning Desire 15/1 431.29 70 >21 10.0 74.0 1:58.4 Siegelman, Austin 25

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:27 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 7:18 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$9000 - NON WINNERS $4,001 IN THE LAST 4 STARTS AE: TM RATING OF 82

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 BORN TO THRIVE 9/2
# 4 JACK RABBIT SLIMS 4/1
# 7 GOT THE GROOVE 6/1

We've got a gut feel BORN TO THRIVE is going to get the score. This nice horse looks tough. Take a good look at the 85 average TrackMaster SR. Comes into this race with really strong TrackMaster class ratings relative to the pack - could be worth a shot. JACK RABBIT SLIMS - Earned a 85 speed rating last time out. A duplicate race here should get the triumph for this race. The 4 position sports a well above average win statistic at Hoosier Park. GOT THE GROOVE - Good for a win wager just off the fantastic prior class numbers. Have to like this fine animal. De Long is racking up the wins in recent times. Outstanding win pct makes this standardbred our pick.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:27 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$11000 - COLTS & GELDINGS - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 EXT. P-M RACES OR $55,000 LIFE. OPT CLM. ALW. $15,000 FOR N/W 9 EXT. P-M RACES OR $85,000 LIFE.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 ATHENS SEELSTER 5/2
# 3 SPECIAL FX 5/1
# 2 AIRY SHADOW 3/1

ATHENS SEELSTER is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the number crunching team. Feel the need for speed, this harness racer has been turning in some exemplary TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 79. If effort in the most recent gathering is representative, this interesting entrant will have a very competitive shot this time. High last race TrackMaster SR. With better than average win stats, Hanners should have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. SPECIAL FX - A really strong play in here as he has one of the highest winning statistics in the field as well as strong credentials all around. AIRY SHADOW - We're not going to pass on this gelding given one of the most compelling driver-trainer statistics around. Very good driver Hennessey should find the pace of today's affair to this gelding's liking - could be a good wager.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:27 AM

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Flamboro Downs

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 10/08 FLAMBORO DOWNS
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 5- - TROT 10/08 FLAMBORO DOWNS
2 Serenity Cruise 8/5 560.55 100 33.3 86.0 1:55.8 Coulter, Scott 21
1 Sheena Soldier 6/1 509.29 60 10.0 79.5 1:57.1 Mackenzie, Paul G 20
8 Mike The Knight 12/1 491.73 60 68.3 78.3 B/F 1:58.0 Haughan, Anthony P 16
4 Mackjustice 3/1 476.94 80 60.0 75.0 1:58.4 Borth, Tyler J 22
6 Royal Champane 8/1 470.28 60 >21 23.3 76.1 1:57.2 Moore, Tyler 17

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:28 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
9	9	CHASE YOU	3/1	Miller, Brett - 9	533.66
5	5	ROCKIN GOOD TIME	9/2	Myers, Hunter - 14	504.43
1	1	DARK MIRAGE	5/2	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 25	495.18
2	2	SHAD	6/1	Page, Chris - 27	461.27
6	6	CINDERELLA DELIGHT	12/1	Merriman, Aaron - 25	453.81
4	4	TELL ME LIKEITIS	10/1	Smith, Tyler - 16	450.23
3	3	LOOKING SANTASTIC	8/1	Stahl, Ryan - 8	437.37
7	7	HERESLOOKNATYOU N	12/1	Grismore, Greg - 11	432.81
8	8	HS SHAUNA	25/1	Thompson, Jason - 7	421.97

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:28 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
6	6	CARBINE	5/2	Filion, Sylvain R - 15	673.81
5	5	LEGION SEELSTER	9/2	Roy, Louis-Philippe - 15	639.06
7	7	CENTURY HEINEKEN	3/1	Mcnair, Douglas R - 18	622.59
1	1	CADILLAC BAYAMA	10/1	Henry, Trevor S - 12	593.63
8	8	ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR	15/1	Macdonald, James A - 21	588.91
3	3	WOODMERE STEALDEAL	4/1	Drury, Jonathan L - 10	585.11
2	2	SOUTHBEACH HANOVER	10/1	Mcclure, Bob - 13	579.20
4	4	TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER	8/1	Jones, Tyler S - 8	567.75

**ConleyPicks** · 10-08-2022, 05:35 AM

KEENELAND SELECTIONS BY THE PRESSBOX

Here’s our looks for the huge Saturday “Fall Stars” Card, which includes 5 Graded Stakes events — and 3 G1s:
1st: 5-4-8/3-7/2-1/6…Pine Valley (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this magnificent Saturday masterpiece of a card. Peter Williams worthy horses all day. This 3YO son of Maclean’s Music ran 2nd at this level last time out. Made a nice middle move before tiring late. The barn wins with .26% in the MCL ranks, and that is with 129 runners. Should be a tough out here. Bourbon On Fire (4) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .15% of the last 80 to do that. Could help with the cut back to a sprint distance. Has a 3rd in one previous try at this distance. Roan for the Rose (8) is a 3YO son of Cupid and will drop into the claiming ranks for the first try since September of 2021. Over a year off. But gets Lasix for this first try back and the barn can get them ready off the bench. Don’t leave this one out. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 12-3-6/11/4-1-9/2-7-10/5/8…Humbling (12) draws an extreme outside post for this first try, but this 2YO daughter of Quality Road cost $1 million to purchase in 2021. Has been training super. Look at the move on the morn of Sept. 29. Barn wins with .10% on first efforts. Top rider up. Look out for a big effort here. Magical Lute (3) is 8-1 in the ML and could outrun those odds. Rider is hot over the past week with a 5-1-1 mark in the last 16 outs. This one ran great on debut for a barn operation that seemingly never has them fully cranked on debut. Jersey Pearl (6) is another longshot possibility here. This one comes off a turf sprint in the debut. Barn is heavily under-rated and this one looks primed. I bet the 12-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-7-5/6-4/3/1-2…Feeling Happy (8) drops another rung in the claiming game and picks up a new rider for this occasion. Barn wins with .19% in the 2nd try off a layoff and this one does have a 3rd in only previous try here. That was in the Spring and against much tougher. Came with a late rush in that one. Needs some luck late. Big Java (7) comes off a Stakes race in Washington (state) in the last outing. Now shows up here for $30,000 — which is the price point that she broke the maiden back in February. Has worked well of late and the rider can shock you. Threat. Mrs. Nushi (5) gets a solid gate rider up and this one does have a 2nd here before. In two starts at this distance? Two 3rds on the resume. Chance. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 4-3/1-5-7-6/2…Tap in Formation (4) is 4-5 odds in the ML and looks salty in this spot, too. Won the debut by a nose at Ellis Park. Sharp work on Oct. 1 here. Top rider up. Has speed and can burn it up early. Hurricane (3) has speed, too, and will pick up blinkers for the first time after a win on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 28. Led in debut and then didn’t. Came back to win. Showed guts in that one, to be sure. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-3 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 1-5-7-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 12-4/6-8-11/1-9-10/2-7/3/5…Osbourne (12) has hit the board in the last four outings and 7 out of the last 8. Super consistent son of Tapiture and has a 3rd in only previous try here. Sharp work on Oct. 2 here. Gets a top rider who has experience with this one in the past. In 4 races at the distance? Has a 1-1-2 mark. Nice. Gulfstream Way (4) has hit the board in the last 7 outings and 8 of the last 9, as well. Barn wins with .18% when cutting back from a route to a sprint and this one has a win and a 2nd in two starts at the distance. New rider up. Interesting choice. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the 12-4 in the exactas. I will key the 12-4 over/under the 6-8-11-1-9-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-7/5/9-6-3-2/8/1…G2 Woodford Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod and I will saddle up with the golden child — Golden Pal (4). He may not be the same as he has been in the past, but he is a perfect 3-for-3 over this track and comes n off a head win at Saratoga. Look no further or farther for me. I bet the 4 to win/place and then box the 4-7 in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 5-9-6-3-2 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-8/4-9/5/1-2-3/5…G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes…Slammed (7) has been the talk of the Louisville town with her training regiment at Churchill Downs. Big, strong and impressive. Has started 11 times in the career. Has 8 wins and a 2nd. Gets a top rider for this effort. Comes well advertise. Joyful Cadence (8) could upset the apple cart here. This one has hit the board in each of the last 8 races and has 3 wins in that mix. Has speed. Will burn early. Look out here. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-8 in the exactas. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 4-9-5-1-2-3 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-3-4/2-1/6…G1 First Lady Stakes…This is a 1-mile turf event for the fillies and mares and I will give the edge to Regal Glory (5). This 6YO mare has raced here 4 times with a win and 2 2nds. Ran a nice 2nd in the Fourstardave Handicap last out as the odds-on favorite. Barn wins with .27% this year and this one has 12 wins in 20 starts. Should be stalking and pouncing here. Technical Analysis (3) is another from the barn of Chad Brown and could be the one to beat, IMO. This one won a G2 at Saratoga last time out and has a 2nd in only previous try here. Gets Flavien Prat up and that could be the difference in this one. In Italian (4) is a third prospect from the Brown barn and will get Joel Rosario back in the saddle. This one upset the others in the G1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga in July. Will try to carry them the whole way here, too. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. Period.
9th: 7-2-3/10-8/5-9/1-4-6/11-12…G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes…This is a top 2YO Stakes and a major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, as well. I will go with Forte (7) in this spot. Will be stretching out to the two turns for the first time and the barn wins with .24% of the last 296 to do that. Gets a top rider and has 2 wins in the first 3 starts. Lone miss was a miscue. Too far off the pace that day at Saratoga in July. Look for this one to be a tough out here. Loggins (2) is moving up off a MSW win at Churhcill Downs in September for top connections. Won that one by nearly 9 lengths. This one could be a freak. Son of Ghostzapper has a right to be good. Really good. Honed (3) could spice up the odds rack some. Ran huge at two turns last time out. That experience could help here. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 10-8 in a smaller unit.
10th: 7-2-6/5-8-9/11-1-10-12/3-(13)-(14)…G1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes…This is a 1-mile turf event for the male division and I line up with Santin (7). Comes off a win in the G1 Arlington Million at Churchill Downs and over a thin grass track. Speed was the name of the game then and this one has it. Will encounter a different track surface here. But this one is classy and has a win over this sod, as well. I stick. Smooth Like Strait (2) is a class act and has a record of 7-9-3 in 22 lifetime starts. Has a 3rd in only previous try here. Has speed. Will push the pace. Can he last the distance? Storyline. Ivar (6) loves this track and won the Shadwell Mile here in 2020. Will be coming late and that will test his soul and talent. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-8-9 in two smaller units.
11th: 10-4-2/6/1-8/3-7-9…Cape Trafalgar (10) gets the nod in the finale. This 3YO son of Lord Nelson has run two solid efforts so far and returns here as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .29% of those kind and that is with 247 runners. Rewire (4) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .24% rate this year. This one has 2 2nds and a 3rd in the first 3 starts. Has not been out since December. Barn can win off the bench and this one is training lights out. Lights. Out. Old Point (2) goes for the barn of Todd Pletcher and will make the career debut. Barn wins with .19% on first start. Works are solid. Chance. I bet the 10-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2022, 06:31 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 8, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card scheduled for this evening. The feature goes in Race 8, an Open Pace with a $39,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Reigning Deo (2-1)-Broke 4th behind the 2 chalks who were 1-2 and finished that way. Brennan did a nice job to set a soft pace after getting on the engine. Kakaley should get a better seat tonight and could get a pocket ride behind #5.
5-Alex Type (4-1)-Has been facing tougher from outside posts and that combo wasn't good. Drops to the level of its last win on 8-15. Marohn could get on the point and make every call a winning one again.

Race 7

2-Zig Zag (7-1)-Drops and beat this kind for its last win on 8-6. Has been camera shy this year and should offer a solid price. Holland could handle this 6-year-old more aggressively with this post draw.
3-No Mas Drama (2-1) Got caught behind stalled cover and had to go 3 wide when dropped to this level. The winner was in the bank as Brennan was allowed to go 27.4-57.4-126.4 and this mare could not make up ground down the lane. Looking for a better set-up tonight.

Race 8

2-Pleaseletmeknow (5/2)-This talented 3-year-old didn't fare well in the Jug Final but now is back on a friendly surface. Has hit the board in 7 of 8 with 5 wins at Yonkers and the victories include the prestigious Messenger Stakes Final. Does face older but the race should go through this classy Alexander pupil.

Race 9

1-Maximus Red A (7/2)-Bumps up off its 1st win at YR but fits with this crew and starting from the rail should help.
2-Rhodena Road (6-1)-Mohawk shipper is no stranger to YR (24-6-2-4) and probably is the fastest horse in the field. Looks to be well worth a swing at this price and could be used underneath as well.
4-Sonny Weaver N (8/5)-Steps-up after an easy win at 2/5, came the back half in a crisp 56.3 on its own and Bartlett sticks. Not loving the short price, using but will look to others with more value.
6-Rolling With Sam (8-1)-Drops to a spot to shine and had no chance in last starting from the 8-hole. Before that was facing $75k claimers and was frequently cashing checks. This could be "go" time and might surprise if there is an honest pace and Kakaley finds live cover.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,5/2,3/2/1,2,4,6
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2022, 06:31 AM

MLB playoffs (best-of-3 series this round)

Saturday’s games
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland (Guardians lead 1-0)
Glasnow was 0-0, 1.35 in two starts this year (6.2 IP).
He threw 50-64 pitches in those two starts; he is coming back from injury.
He is 2-5, 6.56 in eight career playoff starts.
He is 0-2, 2.12 in three starts vs Cleveland.

Rays are 8-19 in their last 27 games.
Tampa Bay is 35-47 on the road this year.
Rays are in the playoffs for the 4th year in a row.

McKenzie was 11-11, 2.96 in 30 starts this year.
He is 5-3, 2.77 in 13 home starts.
He allowed two runs in 1.2 IP, in one playoff relief stint.
He is 0-0, 2.25 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.

Cleveland is 24-6 in their last 30 games.
Guardians are 47-35 at home, 46-35 on road.
Cleveland is in playoffs for 4th time in six years- they missed LY.

Cleveland is 5-2 vs Tampa Bay this year, 3-1 in this ballpark.

Philadelphia @ St Louis (Phillies lead 1-0)
Nola was 11-13, 3.25 in 32 starts this year.
He is 5-9, 3.00 in 16 road starts.
He’s never pitched in a playoff game.
He is 5-3, 2.69 in nine starts vs St Louis.

Phillies scored 6 runs in ninth inning to win Game 1.
Phillies are 5-8 in their last 13 games.
Phillies are 66-46 since they changed managers.
Phillies are 41-41 on the road this year.
Phillies are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

Mikolas was 12-13, 3.29 in 32 starts this year.
He is 6-3, 2.38 in 14 home starts.
He allowed two runs in 12 IP in three playoff games (2 starts).
He is 1-1, 2.13 in two starts vs Philly.

Cardinals’ bullpen imploded Friday; doubtful Helsley (33 PT) is available here.
St Louis went 6-10 in their last 16 games.
Cardinals are 53-29 at home- they won NL Central by 7 games.
St Louis is in playoffs for 4th year in a row.

Phillies are 5-3 vs St Louis TY, with three shutout wins- they’re 3-2 in Busch Stadium.

Seattle @ Toronto (Mariners lead 1-0)
Ray was 12-12, 3.71 in 32 starts this year.
He is 6-6, 4.69 in 14 road starts.
He gave up six runs in 9.2 IP, in three playoff games (1 start)
He is 1-1, 3.50 in three starts vs Toronto.

Mariners are 8-2 in their last ten games.
Their bullpen was needed for only five outs Friday.
Seattle is 45-37 on the road this year.
Mariners are in the playoffs for first time since 2001.

Gausman was 12-10, 3.35 in 31 starts this year.
He is 4-7, 4.57 in 16 home starts.
He’s never pitched in the playoffs.
He is 1-3, 2.74 in seven starts vs Seattle.

Toronto is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Blue Jays are 47-35 at home.
Toronto is in playoffs for 2nd time in last six years.

Seattle is 6-2 vs Toronto this year, splitting four games in SkyDome.

San Diego @ NY Mets
Snell is 8-10, 3.38 in 24 starts this year.
He is 4-2, 3.06 in nine road starts.
He is 2-3, 2.83 in nine playoff games (7 starts, 35 IP)
He is 3-3, 2.73 in six starts vs New York.

Padres are 7-7 in their last 14 games.
San Diego bullpen got only six outs Friday
San Diego is 46-36 on the road this year.
Padres are in the playoffs for 2nd time since 2006 (2020 other time)

deGrom was 5-4, 3.08 in 11 starts this year.
He is 4-1, 2.52 in six home starts.
He is 3-1, 2.88 in four playoff starts.
He is 6-3, 1.28 in 10 starts vs San Diego.

Mets are 6-7 in their last 13 games.
Mets led NL East by 10 games June 1st, didn’t win the division.
New York is 54-28 at home.
Mets are in playoffs for first time since 2016.

San Diego is 5-2 vs New York this year, 3-1 in Citi Field

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2022, 06:32 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for 10/08/22

October 8, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-Baby’s Dream; 3-Unwhirled
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Baby’s Dream gets the worst of the draw for her first start in more than a year but in a modest maiden claiming turf miler the daughter of Declaration of War should have a reasonable look at 5-1 on the morning line. She’s a first-time Lasix user for new trainer Vladmir Cerin in her first outing in a seller and her form in two races vs. straight maidens wasn’t terrible, so with a solid series of works that includes a noteworthy :59 2/5 breeze last month at Del Mar she may have upside the others don’t. We’ll put her on top while also including Unwhirled, another with the first time-for-a-tag angle and with back numbers that make her a solid fit at this level.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Breakfast Ride; 3-Holden the Lute
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Breakfast Ride got really good at Del Mar with a pair of sharp, highly rated wins and today moves up a notch on the class scale while returning to a main track he’s proven he can handle. Not a need-the-lead type but doubly tough if not pressured early, the John Sadler-trained son of Distorted Humor seems capable of handling this class hike, so we’ll put him on top over the other main player, Holden the Lute. The genuine and consistent gelding is every bit as fast on figures as ‘Ride and likely will enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Breakfast Ride (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Caught him from the half mile pole to the wire in :23 flat and :48 flat, asked mildly through the lane over deepish track. Holds his form, should be competitive once again on the raise.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Cuban Crisis; 1-Laura Mars; 9-Real Fire
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Here’s a messy six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for older fillies and mares that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Cuban Crisis flopped twice as the favorite last winter before being stopped on; hopefully, she returns better than she left. The Phil D’Amato-trained import hasn’t done anything flashy in the a.m. but sports a healthy, steady work tab and shows numbers that make her a fit in this below average affair. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s as good as any. Laura Mars is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw, and if she can secure a clear path the daughter of Elusive Quality has a legitimate look despite returning from an eighth month vacation. A series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs look decent on paper and the barn has good stats with layoff runners, so at 6-1 on the morning line she has to be used. Real Fire has run well over this course and distance in the past, and really won’t have to improve much to be a major player in what is just her fourth career start. She’s another at a decent price (8-1) that may be capable of springing a surprise.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Riley G
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress so it would appear Riley G is well-spotted for a debut win in this moderate dash for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Flatter brought $625,000 at the OBS June Sale, where she smoked a furlong in :09 4/5, fastest in the sale, and while she was asked hard to accomplish the quick final time she was impressive, nonetheless. Based on a team gate drill with stable mate California Rocket (see below), she looks the better of the two Bob Baffert first timers, but at 9/5 on the morning line she’ll probably not offer a great deal of value. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

Notable Workouts:

Riley G (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, gate work outside California Rocket (same time) and was the better of the two without undue pressure for B. Baffert, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.3 and 1:00.2 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower than given but decent enough for the expensive ($625,000) daughter of Flatter. Should be plenty fit by now and looks very live at first asking. Workmate wasn’t particularly quick leaving the gate but moved up inside to be head-and-head for a half before being put to some pressure and winding up a neck or so behind.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Going to Vegas; 7-Family Way; 2-Fluffy Socks
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Going to Vegas seems certain to inherit the role as the controlling speed and won this very same Grade-1 race last year in gate-to-wire fashion. The Phil D’Amato-trained mare didn’t get the best of runs when third in the John C. Mabee S.-G1 at Del Mar last month, but she has been first or second in 11 of 14 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course and is more than capable handling this field with her best effort. Eastern shipper Family Way has finished in the frame in her last six outings – all graded stakes events – but is winless since April. The Brandan Walsh-trained mare is a one-paced grinding type that would prefer to lay fairly close to the pace, and in race that projects to have modest early fractions it would behoove Mike Smith to put her in the race early. Fluffy Socks, four times second but winless in five 2022 starts, has been knocking on the door without quite entering. This is her best chance to secure her first victory of the year and she should have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Truthfully, any one of the three listed above can win.

Notable Workouts:

Going to Vegas (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B+
Solo breezing drill on training track for P. D’Amato, slow early but strong through the lane while strictly on her own, splits of :25 flat, :37 flat and 1:00.3, quite sharp. Looks cranked up for a major effort in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1, a race she won last year.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Huntingcoco; 7-Justique
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: We loved the way Huntingcoco won at first asking, but a class hike into Grade-1 company while stretching out after just won sprint is a daunting task for the daughter of Practical Joke. Maybe she’s good enough to pull it off, especially with the switch to outstanding speed rider E. Maldonado, who almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics. At 7/2 on the morning line, we’ll give her a very slight edge over Justique, the visually impressive debut sprint winner at Del Mar that shows the identical pattern (maiden sprint winner stretching out) that our top selections does. Basically, we’re using the best speed with the best closer and hope that at least one of them performs up to expectations.

Notable Workouts:

Huntingcoco (Sept. 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Strong solo move for B. Baffert, splits of :24 flat, :35.3 and 1:00.2 on our watches, very light coaxing only. Hard to say for sure if she will handle a distance of ground off just one sprint, but if she makes the lead without being pressured the daughter of Practical Joke will take some catching.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-D D S Express; 3-Multi Platinum; 5-Street Art
Backups/savers: 9-Forgiving Spirit

Forecast: This first-level allowance sprint is a difficult affair offering several possibilities. You probably should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Let’s go for a big price putting D D S Express on top. The lightly raced son of Vronsky is bred to move up considerably in his first career start on grass, and his numbers are gradually rising, so at 15-1 on the morning line there is plenty of long shot value to be found. Multi Platinum is re-equipped with blinkers and like our top pick is trying grass for the first time. He switches to leading pilot Juan Hernandez, is fast enough on numbers to win, and with just four prior starts has plenty of room for further development. Street Art, a $40,000 Bill Spawr claim, is winless in seven starts on turf but for his new connections the son of Street Boss could easily produce a forward move. He’s a 3-year-old tackling older but should be forwardly placed in a race that projects to have soft fractions, so at 6-1 he’s enticing. Forgiving Spirit finished with interest in a solid five furlong grass dash at Del Mar last time out. He has numbers that put him right there and with a break in the weights the Peter Miller-trained gelding deserves consideration as a backup or a saver.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Cave Rock; 8-Hejazi
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Cave Rock is the legitimate odds-on favorite in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah S.-G1 after a pair of scintillating Del Mar wins including the Del Mar Futurity-G1, with both victories producing powerful speed figures. As a son of Arrogate, the Bob Baffert-trained colt projects to be even better around two turns and with a victory today could earn himself favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland next month. The one he may have to fear most is his stable mate Hejazi, a Bernardini colt with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a triple digit Beyer earned when second in the track record-setting race won by Speed Boat Beach. Purchased for in excess of $3.3 million at the Timonium sale in May, he seems certain to improve with experience and distance and is the most dangerous of the closing types in a race with sufficient early speed to compliment his style.

Notable Workouts:

Hejazi (Oct. 1, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
Outside >b>Carmel Road (same time), breezing to the wire in :35 flat and :59.2 before drawing clear with authority while continuing out to seven furlong pole in 1:12.2, very sharp and quite Impressive. Have to think he will improve a bunch with distance, experience, and maturity.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Turn On The Jets
Backups/savers: 3-Rip City

Forecast: We loved the way Turn On The Jets quickened when room developed a furlong from home in his highly rated first level allowance turf score at Del Mar in August and the Irish-bred gelding seems certain to step forward on the raise following a very impressive training track breeze six days ago. The Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore has a chance to move right up the ladder and at 4-1 on the morning line offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Rip City is too much of a pro to dismiss, so we’ll use him on a ticket or two as a backup or a saver.

Notable Workouts:

Turn On The Jets (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front insideAmy C (5f, 1:01h TT) and finished a neck the best at the wire while under stout restraint every step of the way and able to go much faster if permitted. Won his U.S. debut in clever fashion at Del Mar and looks even better now than he did then. Tough on the raise for P. D’Amato.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference: 5-Hawk of War
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Hawk of War seems well-placed for a repeat score in this highly contentious middle distance turf allowance optional claimer that completes the card. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained gelding makes his first start following a $50,000 claim out of a nice win at Kentucky Downs last month and is logically returned to the same level while seeking some of that extremely valuable ship and win money. Based on speed figures, he’s strictly the one to beat, so we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 7/2.