Saturday 10/29/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #141 Michigan State Spartans+23 over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 29 ABC)

We will grab the points in this battle of Michigan on Saturday night at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. Coach Harbaugh has the better team in this game, but he has had very little success against Michigan State in his tenure at Michigan. The Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at Michigan. The Spartans are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 overall games against the Wolverines. Do no miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring football, basketball, baseball, boxing, and hockey. Sign-up now and let 51 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee


Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: Michigan State Spartans +23


I will take my chances with Michigan State as a 23-point underdog against No. 4 ranked Michigan. I'll be the first to admit that I have not had a ton of success betting on the Spartans this year. I had them 3 straight weeks at Washington, home vs Minnesota and At Maryland where they didn't come thru. It was the biggest reason I didn't play them a couple weeks back as a 7-point dog at home to Wisconsin. A game they would go on to win 34-28 in double-overtime. Maybe I'm jumping back in at the wrong time, but I just can't help myself given the number we are getting in this game. This is a big time in-state rivalry that has produced some crazy results of late. In the last 7 meetings, the underdog has won outright 4 times, 3 of those with the favorite laying more than a touchdown. That includes the last time these two teams played at Michigan, which saw the Spartans win 27-24 as a 21.5-point dog. Adding to this, if you go back over the last 18 meetings in this series, only once has Michigan won the game by more than the number we have for this game.


Aside from that, I do also feel like it's a good matchup for Michigan State. The Wolverines are a team offensively that wants to establish the run. They come into this game averaging 42 rush attempts, 242 yards/game and 5.8 yards/carry on the ground. While the Spartans are far from a great run defense, they are holding opponents nearly a 0.5-yard less than their season average per carry. It's the secondary and big plays in the passing game which has really haunted this team.
This is also a Michigan State offense that can throw the football. Payton Thorne has thrown for almost 1,500 yards with 11 touchdowns, completing 65.4% of his attempts with a 7.2 average per attempt. So even if the Spartans do fall behind big, he's got the arm to close the gap in garbage time and get that lovely backdoor cover. I don't think we will need it, as I think this one will be much closer than expected. Give me the Spartans +23!

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS+3 for our Saturday Free Play.

This is a somewhat suspect line that North Carolina is laying here as the Tar Heels are coming in at 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country in the AP Poll and have the benefit of coming off a bye week while facing a 4-3 unranked team and laying just a field goal. They have a great offense that has kept the winning going as they are ranked No. 8 overall and No. 9 in scoring but have been outgained in four of their seven games as their defense has been a sieve. North Carolina is ranked No. 125 in total defense and No. 114 in scoring defense and this has not been due to recent performances or injuries as this has been an issue since the first game of the season. There is no sense of urgency for the Tar Heels which are 3-0 in the ACC Coastal with every over team in the division sitting at 2-2 or worse. The week off has not helped this team which can be attributed to coaching as the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a bye week. Pittsburgh is coming off a loss at Louisville as the defense played well but the offense had its worst performance of the season as it managed only 326 total yards. The Panthers were moving the ball to try and tie the game late in the fourth quarter but fumbled and the Cardinals returned it 59 yards for a touchdown to seal the victory. Pittsburgh is ranked No. 60 in total offense and No. 57 in scoring offense and it will be able to move the ball with no issues against the Tar Heels defense. The Panthers own defense could be the difference here as they are ranked No. 26 in total defense and can at least slow down the North Carolina defense. A win here gets them to within a game of first place with the tiebreaker in hand. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season allowing 440 or more ypg and after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (153) Pittsburgh Panthers

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#153/154 ASA FREE PLAY ON OVER 65 Points - Pittsburgh vs North Carolina, Saturday at 8 PM ET

We like the fact that Pittsburgh is coming off a poor offensive showing against Louisville with just 10-points and their lowest yardage total of the season. Prior to facing the Ville, the Panthers had up over 384 total yards in every game and 410+ in five. The low offensive numbers against Louisville is understandable considering UL is 19th in the nation in points allowed per game and 36th in YPG allowed. This week the Panthers face a UNC defense that is literally one of the worst in college football. The Tar Heels give up nearly 500YPG (127th) and 33.8PPG (110th). UNC just gave up 35-points and 542 yards to Duke which are significantly higher than what the Dukies averaged going into that game. North Carolina is going to put up points in this with an offense that is 10th in scoring at 39.3PPG, 17th in yards per point offense at 12.4 and 11th in total yards per game gained. When you factor in strength of schedule and offenses faced, the Panthers aren’t as good defensively as the numbers would indicate. Early in the season the Panthers faced a similar team to UNC in terms of offense when Tennessee came to town, and they gave up 34-points and 416 total yards. Both offenses will shine in this contest and produce 70+ total points.

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Astros -1 1/2 +166

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Hawks vs Bucks NBA Free Pick


Both the Hawks and the Bucks will be playing on no rest following decisive wins Friday night. Defense suffers more than offense when fatigue kicks in, and over is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
FREE PICK ON OVER.

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on Utah+5 1/2.


Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.


Key Trends:
- The Grizzlies might be without Ja Morant tonight.
- The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.
- The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.
Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Century Mile - Race #6 - Post: 6:15pm - Starter Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#5 BARE BACK JACK (ML=7/2)
#3 MR. ARTISTIC (ML=5/2)
#2 FIRST PRINCE (ML=5/1)


BARE BACK JACK - To play a racer off works, you have to know when to tell if a horse is fit. The fact that this gelding worked recently at longer distance is a positive angle. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a nice race within the last thirty days. Just view his last fig, 92. That one fits well in this bunch. MR. ARTISTIC - Walcott and Humbke perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +83 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. A racer coming back this quickly after a sharp race is a good sign. After the contest aboard this horse on Sep 30th, the jock is going to know the gelding much better. FIRST PRINCE - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter distance and should aid his chances of winning. I think Century Mile players know a good thing when they see the rider/handler pair of Nelson and Cone. Their winning percent together has been positive. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COMMON KNOWLEDGE (ML=4/1), #1 YORKTOWN (ML=8/1), #8 IRISH TRICK (ML=8/1),

COMMON KNOWLEDGE - Just cannot play this mount. Didn't show me anything positive last out or on September 24th. YORKTOWN - All kinds of crazy speed on board for this race. No chance for this early speedster. 8/1 is not priced right for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair recently. This vulnerable equine ran a most unsatisfactory fig last race out. He shouldn't run better and will probably lose today running that rating. IRISH TRICK - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 BARE BACK JACK to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,5] with [2,3,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 11	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Stakes • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $126,000 • Post: 5:29P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, QHRAI DERBY - FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, THREE YEARS OLD. WHICH REMAIN ELIGIBLE BY QUALIFYING IN THE QHRAI DERBY TRIALS. WEIGHT: 126 LBS. PURSE $100,000 ADDED. NOMINATION AND SUSTAINING FEES WILL BE ADDED TO THE PURSE OF THE QHRAI DERBY FINAL. PURSE DIVIDED 55% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH, 2% TO SIXTH, 1.5% TO SEVENTH AND EIGHTH AND 1% TO NINTH AND TENTH. TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER. THIS STAKE WILL BE LIMITED TO TEN (10) STARTERS ALL OF WHICH QUALIFIED WITH THE FASTEST TIMES FROM THE QHRAI DERBY TRIALS. ASSISTANT STARTERS WILL BE PROVIDED FOR THE COMPETITORS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ONE NIGHT TOO LONG: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. HEAD PATRON: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style des ignation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SCANDYLOUS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KISS ME AT MIDNIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	ONE NIGHT TOO LONG	8/5	5/1
10	HEAD PATRON	12/1	6/1
1	SCANDYLOUS	6/1	7/1
3	KISS ME AT MIDNIGHT	6/1	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SCANDYLOUS	1	6/1	Average	89	86	4.8	0.0	0.0
2	FABULOUS BARBARA	2	30/1	Average	78	78	4.7	0.0	0.0
3	KISS ME AT MIDNIGHT	3	6/1	Average	83	84	4.3	0.0	0.0
4	SCREENSHOT	4	8/1	Average	79	75	4.9	0.0	0.0
5	INCREDIBLE	5	4/1	Fast	81	78	2.3	0.0	0.0
6	ONE NIGHT TOO LONG	6	8/5	Fast	87	89	3.0	0.0	0.0
7	HIDDEN PRIZE	7	15/1	Average	79	73	5.9	0.0	0.0
8	HEJFUND	8	15/1	Average	85	80	4.7	0.0	0.0
9	JESS DASHINGLY	9	10/1	Average	80	79	4.8	0.0	0.0
10	HEAD PATRON	10	12/1	Fast	87	85	2.5	0.0	0.0
11	TRESJETDASH	11	20/1	Fast	77	74	3.5	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Rolling Double 50 cent Rolling Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Starter Allowance $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $22,900 • Post: 1:39P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN THE LAST 5 STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HAPPY AS YOU GO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMa ster Power Rating. CHLOES ANGEL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUE THE BAND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). CARMEN OHIO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rati ng at the distance/surface.
7	HAPPY AS YOU GO	5/1	4/1
6	CHLOES ANGEL	5/2	5/1
10	CUE THE BAND	9/2	9/1
1	CARMEN OHIO	8/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SO GO MY LUCEILLE	3	6/1	Front-runner	70	68	76.0	50.6	43.1
8	PROPHETESS	8	8/1	Front-runner	64	61	69.0	57.4	42.9
10	CUE THE BAND	10	9/2	Front-runner	71	72	64.8	63.6	54.6
9	SANIBEL	9	15/1	Front-runner	52	53	58.6	48.8	29.3
7	HAPPY AS YOU GO	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	75	55.2	69.4	64.4
1	CARMEN OHIO	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	70	45.2	59.4	51.4
4	BEST OF YOU	4	20/1	Trailer	70	51	20.6	53.2	39.2
6	CHLOES ANGEL	6	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	74	35.4	65.0	60.5
2	BEEBLEGEE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	59	36.4	54.6	40.6
5	SHEZA FINE JUSTICE	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	59	30.2	54.8	42.8

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 29, 2022 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, FOR EACH $1,250 TO $5,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RILEYS DUDE 8/5
# 2 SHED A TEAR 5/2
# 7 ONE NINER TANGO 6/1

RILEYS DUDE has a solid shot to take this race. Overall the speed figures of this animal look formidable in this contest. The Equibase speed fig of 90 from his latest affair looks competitive in here. The average class rating of 79 makes this one tough to beat. SHED A TEAR - Lately Sanchez has been on fire which may give the edge to this gelding. Put up a very good speed fig last time out. ONE NINER TANGO - Lake has a solid win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. When a handler brings any horse back this soon it is a positive signal.

---

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/29/22, KEE, Race 9, 5.16 ET
10/29/22,KEE,9,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:47:04 STAKES. Hagyard Fayette Stakes. Grade 2. Purse $350,000 (includes up to $50,000 Guaranteed KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	West Will Power	4/1	Rosario J	Cox Brad H.	JSFL	115	32.17	1.43/$1
096.2631	3	Fulsome	3/1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.	EC	115	32.17	1.43/$1
095.2592	4	First Captain	6/5	Saez L	McGaughey III Claude R		185	31.89	1.22/$1
094.2380	6	Last Samurai	6/1	Gaffalione T	Lukas D. Wayne		133	25.56	1.32/$1
094.1190	5	King Fury	8/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	McPeek Kenneth G.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
088.8072	2	Chess Chief	10/1	Gutierrez R	Stewart Dallas		115	32.17	1.43/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.59, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.7369
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Not First Race After 45 Days Off

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 7 - Stakes - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 100

TWILIGHT DERBY - GRADE 2 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 DUE ON OR BEFORE THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2022, CLOSED WITH 18 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $4,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. ALL HORSES TO PAY $1,500 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,500 TO START WITH $200,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $120,000 TO THE WINNER, $40,000 TO SECOND, $24,000 TO THIRD, $12,000 TO FOURTH AND $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 DEGREE OF RISK 12/1
# 4 HANDY DANDY 6/1
# 5 CABO SPIRIT 4/1

I back DEGREE OF RISK in here especially at a long price. HANDY DANDY - Could wake up with Lasix change (now going off Lasix) today. Rispoli ought to be able to get this gelding to break out quickly here. CABO SPIRIT - Has very good early speed and ought to fare admirably against this field. Ran a solid last race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#4 TIZADUKE (ML=8/1)
#10 NOBLE AND KIND (ML=6/1)


TIZADUKE - This colt was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. This steed should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. This animal is tops in (EPS) earnings per start. He looks sharp in today's event. Yates drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this horse should be one of the top contenders at this level. NOBLE AND KIND - Vasquez was aboard this colt last race out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. A horse coming back this rapidly after a good race is a good signal. This colt earned a strong speed fig of 49 in his last contest. That speed fig should be strong enough to score this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BUDDHA BOY (ML=5/2), #5 CAPTAIN ANTHONY (ML=3/1), #6 BEFRIENDTHEENEMY (ML=5/1),

BUDDHA BOY - Just don't believe he is priced right at the likely odds. CAPTAIN ANTHONY - I foretell a disappointing effort for this horse in this race. BEFRIENDTHEENEMY - In this circumstance, this entrant's inability to close any ground in the last race is a troubling signal. The rating last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 TIZADUKE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 10 with [1,6,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Freehold Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
6	6	BRICKYARD VELTIC	5/2	Baynes, Ray - 8	393.37
5	5	THE ILLUMINATOR	8/1	Siegelman, Austin - 21	382.23
2	2	WILSON FROST	6/1	Beyer, Troy - 12	377.65
4	4	WICKED BUSINESS	4/1	Miller, Tyler - 9	375.29
7	7	MAJOR MARCUS	15/1	Ginsburg, Vincent - 13	349.70
1	1	BUCKEYE CHROME	5/1	Abbatiello, Eric - 10	348.34
8	8	COMMANDER BOND	5/1	Vallee, Shaun - 6	327.99
3	3	MOMMA'S ARTIST	20/1	Janos, Mark - 0	313.54