Saturday 11/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Keeneland Breeders' Cup Saturday Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022

KEENELAND TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
BEST BET: #4 ARABIAN KNIGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Arabian Knight	J R Velazquez
PLACE	9-2	6	Fashion King	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	12	Reagan	L Saez
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Dakota Run	D Cohen
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Expect More	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Rocket and Roll	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/12 BOX, 1/6/12 BOX
RACE #2 $195,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:05 AM ET
BEST BET: #2 NAKATOMI
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	2	Nakatomi	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	3	Messier	J R Velazquez
SHOW	6-1	6	Long Range Toddy	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Gun It	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	12	No Shirt No Shoes	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	14	Fortin Hill	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $1,000,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:50 AM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Goodnight Olive	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	13	Echo Zulu	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	15-1	1	Slammed	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Obligatory	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Ce Ce	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	12	Lady Rocket	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 8/1,4,7,12 ,13 & 1,4,7,12,13/8
* TRIFECTA: 8,13/1,7,8,13/1,4,7,8,12,13
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE has not been challenged in her last five races and ran her best fractions last out. ECHO ZULU will have to hustle to get to the front. A bullet work in her last training session says she will be up to the task. SLAMMED is the inside speed riding the rail. She could make it really hard for other fast horses to clear her before the turn. OBLIGATORY will have plenty of pace to chase. She should blow by tiring horses down the stretch.
RACE #4 $1,000,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:29 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC TURF SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Highfield Princess	J Hart
PLACE	2-1	8	Golden Pal	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	4	Campanelle	L Dettori
WILD CARD	6-1	11	Casa Creed	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Arrest Me Red	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	12	Bran	V Cheminaud
* EXACTA: 6,8/4,6,7,8,11,12
* TRIFECTA: 6,8/4,6,8,11/4,6,7,8,11,12
COMMENTS: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS found her form winning three Group I races in a row and is two for two in short sprints. GOLDEN PAL has a lot of early burst and is coming off her fastest race to date. She could be a lot better in round two off the sidelines. CAMPANELLE loves these short trips around the track with three wins and a third in four tries. The third was on a soft track. She prefers a firmer course which is what she will get. CASA CREED is a straight pace play. She has the most late pace in the field as the lone pure closer and will have plenty of speed to chase.
RACE #5 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC BIG ASS FANS DIRT MILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Gunite	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-2	6	Laurel River	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	3	Pipeline	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Codys Wish	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	9	Cyberknife	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	1	Slow Down Andy	M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 3,5,6,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,6,7/5,6/1,3,5,6,7,9
COMMENTS: GUNITE was better from the gate to the wire in his last race. He will be hard to pass if he keeps the lead into the stretch. LAUREL RIVER should sit right behind the leaders and use his race best late pace to catch them for the photo. PIPELINE and CODYS WISH faced each other three times in the last nine races. CODYS WISH won the last one but PIPELINE owns the other two.
RACE #6 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC FILLY AND MARE TURF STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	11	In Italian	J Rosario
PLACE	9-2	4	Above the Curve	J R Velazquez
SHOW	5-2	3	Nashwa	H Doyle
WILD CARD	10-1	12	Moira	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Lady Speightspeare	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Tuesday	R L Moore
* EXACTA: 3,4,11,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,11,12/3,4,11/1,3,4,5,11,12
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN will try to go wire to wire for the sixth time in nine races. Her resume says she should pop in the second start after a layoff. ABOVE THE CURVE and NASHWA essentially tied in their last race. Both should contend again. We will give ABOVE THE CURVE a slight edge as she will be more forwardly placed and likely to encounter less traffic. MOIRA started her career with five all weather races and tried turf for the first time last out. She just missed in the first grass go and will likely be better today.
RACE #7 $2,000,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	9	Jackies Warrior	J Rosario
PLACE	4-1	2	Kimari	J L Ortiz
SHOW	12-1	5	Aloha West	L Saez
WILD CARD	20-1	3	O Besos	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	8	C Z Rocket	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	10	Willy Boi	C Sutherland
* EXACTA: 2,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
* TRIFECTA: 2,9/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
COMMENTS: JACKIES WARRIOR is likely to get tested in this race and work to get the win. He should get the job done as the most complete horse from start to finish. KIMARI is two for two at the distance and can show more in his second start after a layoff. ALOHA WEST has been running well over the Keeneland track with a pair of bullet workouts. O BESOS is a very consistent performer and will be making up ground late.
RACE #8 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC MILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	11	Annapolis	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	13	Kinross	L Dettori
SHOW	7-2	4	Modern Games	W T Buick
WILD CARD	8-1	14	Domestic Spending	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	2	Shirls Speight	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Regal Glory	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 4,11,13,14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4,11,13,14/4,11,13/2,4,8,11,13,14
COMMENTS: ANNAPOLIS is marching up the performance ladder and is a pair of seconds from being undefeated in seven. KINROSS is on a four race win streak and is just two necks from six of his last seven. MODERN GAMES won both of his North American races with ease. He likes the distance too with three wins and two seconds in five tries. DOMESTIC SPENDING makes his return to racing after more than a year off. If he regains his old form then 8 to 1 will look like a gift.
RACE #9 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC DISTAFF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Malathaat	J R Velazquez
PLACE	9-5	6	Nest	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	8	Society	F Geroux
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Search Results	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Clairiere	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Blue Stripe	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,8/1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: MALATHAAT is not all that far from winning all 13 of her career races. The most she has been beaten by is one and a half lengths. NEST has three wins and a second on an off track in four at the distance. SOCIETY won five of six races. The lone miss followed a stumble and bump at the break. SEARCH RESULTS has the best combination of early and late ability.
RACE #10 $4,000,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $4M BC TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	2	War Like Goddess	J Rosario
PLACE	7-2	7	Nations Pride	W T Buick
SHOW	15-1	1	Bye Bye Melvin	F Lynch
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Rebels Romance	J Doyle
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	13	Highland Chief	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Broome	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,5,7/2,7/1,2,4,5,7,13
COMMENTS: WAR LIKE GODDESS ran the highest last race speed figure in a Grade I win in her last and the fourth consecutive increase. NATIONS PRIDE really did not have to work that hard to win his last race as the heavy favorite. He should have plenty in the tank for today. BYE BYE MELVIN can take them wire to wire if he can get away with the right fractions. REBEL ROMANCE has won all his races since moving to turf but none against any of the top European names. This will be his stiffest competition.
RACE #11 $6,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $6M BC CLASSIS GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	4	Flightline	F Prat
PLACE	6-1	2	Life Is Good	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	10-1	7	Olympiad	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Epicenter	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Hot Rod Charlie	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Taiba	M E Smith
* EXACTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7
* TRIFECTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7/1,2,4,5,6,7
COMMENTS: Everybody wants to see the battle between FLIGHTLINE and LIFE IS GOOD. That is what we will likely see. Both horses should be forwardly placed and could run one two all the way around the track. OLYMPIAD won seven of his last eight races including one at todays distance in his last. EPICENTER is a three year old facing off against elite four year olds. Overcoming the age difference can be a big ask at three.
RACE #12 $350,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 FALL HARVEST STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	5	Shantisara	F Prat
PLACE	15-1	3	Burning Ambition	F Geroux
SHOW	3-1	7	Technical Analysis	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Sunny One	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	4	Dalika	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Henrietta Topham	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 5/3,4,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 5/3,4,7,8/3,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: SHANTISARA ran the top last race speed figure and drops in class. BURNING AMBITION has upped her speed figure four races in a row and never missed the money in seven races. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS tends to win when she is the favorite. She will not be the favorite here unless the top choice scratches. SUNNY ONE ran some better early fractions last out despite going a little longer.

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Belmont Park Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022

AQUEDUCT TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 10:50 AM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Idea Generation	M Franco
PLACE	5-1	8	Spelterini	J Lezcano
SHOW	5-1	2	Kingmaking	P Lopez
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Hola Gata	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Highland Grace	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Natural Beauty	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX
RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:33 AM ET
BEST BET: #5 RIAS ANGEL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	5	Rias Angel	J A Gomez
PLACE	20-1	1	Sight Unseen	H K Harkie
SHOW	9-2	8	Nicholas James	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Milano	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Iron Lion in Zion	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Achilles Heel	A S Worrie
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 VIRADIA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Viradia	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	2	Melting Snow	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	4	Summer Brew	E Cancel
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Daily Briefing	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Diva Banker	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Afleet Diva	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:53 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Inflation Nation	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	3	Vacation Dance	K Carmouche
SHOW	8-1	5	Chiringo	E Cancel
WILD CARD	9-5	1	No Nay Hudson	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Be of Courage	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Your Mission	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	10	On Palm Sunday	K Carmouche
SHOW	9-2	1	Addicted to You	E Cancel
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Central Pride	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	The Sleepychipmunk	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Sense a Giant	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX
RACE #6 $25,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SECRET RULES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Secret Rules	M Olver
PLACE	5-2	2	Lafittes Fleet	D Davis
SHOW	12-1	1	Super John	A Wolfsont
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Bourbon Bay	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	8	Risk Profile	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Tapizearance	O Hernandez Moreno
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	8	Redifined	J Lezcano
PLACE	8-1	1	Moonage Daydream	R Gutierrez
SHOW	2-1	9	Shidabhuti	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Georgees Spirit	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	6	Dontlookbackatall	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Showgirl Lynne B	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
RACE #8 $90,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Leddy	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	8	Reggae Music Man	P Lopez
SHOW	3-1	6	Watasha	M Franco
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Dots Dollar	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	4	Life Changer	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Prisoner	D Davis
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $75,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Bricco	J A Gomez
PLACE	3-1	12	Battle Scars	D Davis
SHOW	5-1	8	Mr. Kringle	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Excursionniste	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Action Jackson	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Voliero	E Cancel
* EXACTA: 1-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/12 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX
RACE #10 $30,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	15	Impulsiveness	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	8	Breadman	K Carmouche
SHOW	3-1	2	Timbuktu	M Franco
WILD CARD	10-1	12	Hard Rye Guy	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Fast Gordon	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Gooch Go Bragh	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 15-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/15 BOX, 2/8/12 BOX

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Santa Anita Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022

SANTA ANITA TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Midnight Majesty	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	5	Synnin and Winnin	E A Maldonado
SHOW	3-1	6	New York Dreams	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Curly Esa	T Baze
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Precedent	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	7	Chicago Soldier	K Frey
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 FAMOUS STAR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Famous Star	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	5	Tenth Street Don	K Frey
SHOW	7-2	6	Honeymoon Suite	T Baze
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Mastermind	R Curatolo
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Commander Carl	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Apfel	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MISTER BEAMS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Mister Beams	A Cedillo
PLACE	4-1	2	Chicks Dig It	E K Rojas Fernandez
SHOW	9-5	3	Bizzy Gal	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Marks Hip	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Wegotbeeronice	K Frey
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #4 $28,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	5	Hialeah Hottie	A Cedillo
PLACE	4-1	2	Draw Near	T Baze
SHOW	5-1	3	Forest Acclamation	E A Ellingwood
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Short Journey	E K Rojas Fernandez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Love Our Family	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Royale Flare	J D Lopez
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	10	I Know Cash Flow	A Alsagoor
PLACE	5-2	5	Liberty Forever	R A Vazquez
SHOW	6-1	3	Nice Guy Clay	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Catemaco	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Exceed Speed Limit	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Tizlightning	K Frey
* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/10 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
RACE #6 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:38 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Earls Rock	R A Vazquez
PLACE	5-1	6	Rip City	E A Maldonado
SHOW	7-2	4	Gypsy King	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Vantastic	D Van Dyke
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Zoffarelli	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	Flashiest	R Curatolo
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 CROWNING GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Crowning Gold	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	7	Pacific States	R Curatolo
SHOW	3-1	5	Vinny the Coin	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Mobe Town	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Napoleonic Code	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Sippin Whiskey	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	12-1	10	Neptunes Storm	R Ramirez
PLACE	7-2	12	Gregorys Pride	A Cedillo
SHOW	4-1	4	Creative Peak	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Ill Stand Taller	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	11	Respect the Code	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Awesome Rhythm	R Curatolo
* EXACTA: 10-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/12 BOX, 4/9/12 BOX
RACE #9 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Doc Adams	E A Maldonado
PLACE	6-1	9	Back Ring Luck	A Aguilar
SHOW	4-1	1	Direct Line	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Outright	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Big Buzz	J Pyfer
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Holiday Arousal	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
RACE #10 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Cocktail Princess	K Frey
PLACE	12-1	1	Smiling Amy	J Matias
SHOW	4-1	5	Nyvan	R Curatolo
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Carole Lombard	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Cherry Chaos	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Golden Temper	D Van Dyke
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

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KRISTPICKS

Aqueduct racetrack - saturday, november 05, 2022 // post time - 10:50 a.m. Est

- daily selections for november 05 -

race 1: 8 - spelterini 5-1
9 - hola gata 6-1
6 - highland grace 4-1

race 2: 8 - nicholas james 9-2
4 - milano 5-1
5 - ria's angel 8-5

race 3: 3 - afleet diva 6-1
2 - melting snow 5-2
6 - shadolamo 10-1

race 4: 4 - inflation nation 7-5
3 - vacation dance 5-2
1 - no nay hudson 9-5

race 5: 9 - sense a giant 6-1
3 - your mission 9-5
1 - addicted to you 9-2

race 6: 8 - risk profile 4-1
4 - secret rules 2-1
2 - lafitte's fleet 5-2

race 7: 7 - dulcia 12-1 - longshot
8 - redifined 7-5
6 - dontlookbackatall 5-2

race 8: 7 - jester's song 10-1
2 - dot's dollar 10-1
3 - leddy 6-1

race 9: 4 - agent creed 9-2 - best bet
1 - bricco 3-1
3 - action jackson 5-2

race 10: 9 - ableton 30-1
2 - timbuktu 3-1
5 - fast gordon 8-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - November 5

November 4, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, November 5, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [Clm 25000 N2L, 1 mi] – (4) Milano (C) improved significantly in his first start after getting claimed when he finished third and was bet down from 16-1 to 11-1. (5) Ria’s Angel drops back down to this claiming level after a third-place finish in a starter allowance. (8) Nicholas James was claimed for $25,000 last time from a race where he pressed the pace. He is projected to be on the lead in this field. (3) Iron Lion in Zion was third in a similar spot last time when he ran a career best speed figure.

5th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/16 Mi TURF] – (3) Your Mission returns from an August layoff when he was racing against maiden special weights and drops into a claimer for the first time for Todd Pletcher. (7) Central Pride ran third last time when he made his first start in a maiden claimer. (2) Whisky Warrior also comes back from an August layoff for John Kimmel whose barn was hot during the Belmont at the Big A meeting. (1) Addicted to You has several top three finishes at this level.

6th race [Clm 25000, 7F] – (4) Secret Rules was claimed from a win for $25,000 two races back and returned for his new trainer to set the pace and finished third for $32,000. Now he is projected to be on the lead again and Rob Falcone puts a jockey making the first start of his career on board. (2) Lafitte’s Fleet was claimed for $32,000 last time by Rob Atras and drops down for the new trainer. (8) Risk Profile was third in an allowance and then second in a N3L claimer in his last two starts for Linda Rice. (3) Bourbon Bay returned from a six month break to run third.

10th race [Clm 30000 N2L, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (1) Gooch Go Bragh (C) ran a strong second when last seen in July at Saratoga at this level and was bet down from 8-1 to 6-1. In the second start of his career last year he ran fourth in the With Anticipation (G3). (2) Timbuktu ran second the entire race last time when they came off the turf. Prior races were on the grass against NY-breds including a debut victory in a maiden special weight. (8) Breadman comes back as a new gelding and drops into a claimer for the first time. He was also a first out winner who then was third in a state-bred stakes race. (6) Fieldstone is in good form right now with a pair of top three finishes at this level. He is an Aqueduct horse with a 14: 2-3-3 record.

Best bets: Your Mission (5th); Secret Rules (6th). Best value: Milano (2nd); Gooch Go Bragh (10th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 4-6 and starts with the Atlantic Beach

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Keeneland Breeders' Cup FULLCARD Hotlist - November 5, 2022

November 4, 2022

NY Hot List Picks - Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card analysis, November 5, 2022 at Keeneland
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

1st race – [Md Sp Wt, 7F] - (11) Certain put in a bullet work on Oct. 29 at Keeneland when a bevy of Breeders’ Cup horses were on the track. Should be tough to catch in his career debut. (12) Reagan missed by a neck in his debut and is the one to fear. (10) Expect More also looks like a talented firster. (4) Arabian Knight is a firster from Baffert who cannot be ignored.

2nd race – [OC 100k/C, 6

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Keeneland Select Breeders' Cup Pick of the Day | November 5, 2022

November 4, 2022

Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday November 5 | Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade 1 | Purse $4 Million | One Mile and One-Half | Three Year Olds and Upward


Win contenders:

The mare War Like Goddess (2) has a perfect five-for-five record at this mile and one-half distance on turf among her nine-for-12 career record. Looking a bit further, she’s a perfect two-for-two over the Keeneland turf at the distance of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Considering three of the last seven editions of this race have been won by females (Found in 2015 and Enable in 2018) there are no concerns about the fact War Like Goddess is facing males for the first time. She enters the race having beaten the other gender in the Turf Classic Invitational at this distance in New York, that race having been used as a springboard to winning this one in 2014 by Main Sequence. The mare has also run consistently well on many levels this year and last, her worse finish (if we can even use that word) when beaten a head for second and a half-length for the win in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, this year being run at the distance of one mile and three-sixteenths, which is obviously the reason Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott opted for this race at the best distance for War Like Goddess.

Nations Pride (7) is the other horse with a big probability to win, sporting another strong record of six wins and two runner-up efforts in nine career starts. The Irish bred came to the U.S. in July with this race in mind, and each of his three North American races has been better than the one which preceded it. He finished second in the Belmont Derby in July and won both the Saratoga Derby and Jockey Club Derby since then. The most recent effort was his first in the states at this 12 furlong trip and he drew clear by six lengths with not only authority, but with gas left in the tank. European based trainer Charles Appleby goes to his #1 rider in William Buick for the race, Buick having ridden Nations Pride to victory in the Saratoga Derby as well as to two of his wins in the U.K. There can be little doubt EVERY horse Appleby starts in a Breeders’ Cup race is to be taken very seriously, especially those ridden by Buick. Going back five years, Appleby has won nine of 19 races when shipping horses from Europe to the U.S., which doesn’t apply to this talented colt. However, when Buick rides for this trainer in these races, they have a formidable record of nine wins in just 15 races, which might go up after Breeders’ Cup weekend has concluded.

No matter how probable War Like Goddess and Nations Pride might seem, I am absolutely going to be making a win, win-place, or win-place-show bet on Nautilus (12) in this race as he opens at 30 to 1 odds. This Brazilian bred colt makes his U.S. debut for trainer Paulo Lobo, who has had his share of longshot winners in graded stakes on turf the past few years, at odds of 14 to 1, 12 to 1 and 8 to 1. Lobo also saddled the third place finisher in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile and the fourth place finisher in that race in 2020. Nautilus has a consistent career record of 6-4-2 in 17 races but it’s his most recent race that intrigues me and gives him a shot to run a lot better than his odds suggest. In the Group 1 Brasil Stakes this past June, in a field of 14 at the same mile and one-half distance of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, Nautilus rallied from 11th with about three-sixteenths of a mile to run and ran by the field to win by a neck. That was on a left-handed (counter-clockwise) course like the races in North America, and it was his best effort to date. Being a four year old he still may not be fully mature, and having superb American breeding (by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer out of a Point Given mare) there’s a lot to like about this colt who gets top North American jockey Javier Castellano to ride.

Also contenders and worth a look for win bets if the odds are high enough:

Red Knight (10) moved privately to the barn of Mike Maker sometime between his last start of 2021 in August and his 2022 debut in July. He returned to the races as if he had never been away, winning the Colonial Turf Cup then the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, beating 10 and 11 other horses, respectively. A few weeks ago in the Sycamore Stakes at this distance and over the Keeneland turf, a race he had won in 2020, Red Knight had to swing EIGHT paths wide into the stretch for room while winner, Highland Chief (13), got a dream run up the rail. Jockey Luis Saez, who has had good success for trainer Mike Maker, opts to ride Red Knight although he hasn’t ridden the horse in two years, getting off Channel Maker (who he rode to two stakes wins this year) and that bods well for this horse running batter than his 20 to 1 odds suggest he will.

Rebel’s Romance (5) hails from the Appleby barn the same as Nations Pride and is no slouch, having won eight of 11 races including four races in a row. All four were at this mile and one-half distance and the last two were Group 1 wins in Germany. Jockey James Doyle rode Rebel’s Romance to one of those wins and gets the mount today. As mentioned previously, Appleby has a strong record in graded stakes in North America, and a subset of that is horses which last raced in Europe, where his record is 9-5-2 in 19 races, which means Rebel’s Romance must be respected as a contender.

Highland Chief (13) won the Sycamore Stakes at this distance on this course three weeks ago, and three races before that won the Grade 1 Man o’War Stakes at this distance in New York. In that race he beat the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, Yibir, as well as multiple graded stakes winner Gufo, so now that he’s back in form and as he’s making his second start following two and one-half months off, another big race may be forthcoming.

For consideration on exacta tickets in the second position and for trifecta tickets in the third position:

Channel Maker (6) is getting up there in years as he’s an eight year old but he won the Elkhorn Stakes this spring at the distance and at Keeneland. He’s earned over $3.5 million while winning nine times, six at this distance, so although his last two efforts when 10th and fourth (in the Sycamore) were sub-par, his 30 to 1 odds offer interest for an in-the-money finish. Similarly, Mishriff (11) may appear to be off form, with a 0-2-1 record in six races this year. However, all six were in top group 1 company and he was second to the remarkable Baeed in one of them while beaten a neck in another. World-class jockey Frankie Dettori rides and the horse has a shot to be in-the-money but his six to one starting odds are not appealing for a win bet.



Win bets:

Consider win bets on War Like Goddess (2) and on Nations Pride (7) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Additionally, Nautilus (12) can be bet to win, win & place, or win, place & show at odds of 10 to 1 or more.

For the record, Red Knight (10), Rebel’s Romance (5) and Highland Chief (13) can be considered for win bets (or win-place bets) at odds of 8 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

War Like Goddess (2) and Nations Pride (7) over War Like Goddess (2), Nations Pride (7), Nautilus (12), Red Knight (10), Rebel’s Romance (5), Highland Chief (13), Channel Maker (6) and Mishriff (11).

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Scully: Leveraging Breeders' Cup Saturday top play in Pick 3s
James Scully

Nest rates as my best bet on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup program at Keeneland, and I will key her in Pick 3 wagers surrounding the Distaff (G1).

I won’t take on prohibitive favorites Flightline and Jackie’s Warrior in their respective races – those events aren’t appealing from a straight or vertical wager perspective – but both will be singled with Nest in a Pick 3. And I will add an upset contender in each race for a smaller denomination.

On a $105 budget, here is my strategy for leveraging Nest in Pick 3s.
Pick 3 Leg 1 – Sprint (G1), Race 7

#9 Jackie’s Warrior appears capable of dictating the pace wire-to-wire. If the favorite falters, up-and-coming #6 Elite Power is the one I want.
Leg 2 – Mile (G1), Race 8

#4 Modern Games is the one to beat following a pair of top-class performances, winning the Woodbine Mile (G1) and finishing second in the Queen Elizabeth (G1) on the recent Champions Day card at Ascot. The other main threat from overseas, #13 Kinross, will be added along with the classy U.S. distaffer #8 Regal Glory and recent Group 1 runner-up #9 Malavath.
Leg 3 – Distaff, Race 8

#6 Nest drew better and possesses more tactical speed than stablemate Malathaat, who may be further back then preferred from the rail given a projected moderate pace, and Nest enters in peak form, registering a 107 Brisnet Speed and 112 Late Pace rating romping in the Oct. 9 Beldame (G1) over elders. She’s poised for a top performance.

$10 Pick 3: 9 with 4, 8, 9, 13 with 6 ($40)
$5 Pick 3: 6 with 4, 8, 9, 13 with 6 ($20)

Pick 3 Leg 1 – Distaff, Race 8

See comments about the Distaff above regarding the use of Nest as a key.
Leg 2 – Turf (G1), Race 9

I’m against the top three choices on the morning line. #11 Mishriff rates a slight edge in his career finale, and #3 Stone Age and #9 Gold Phoenix are longshots of interest.
Leg 3 – Classic (G1), Race 10

An imposing favorite, #4 Flightline will look to track projected pacesetter #2 Life Is Good during the early stages. He may be able to overcome all obstacles, but the speedy four-year-old colt probably wants to avoid a prolonged battle on the front end. If Flightline does get softened up dueling, #6 Epicenter will look to take advances. The three-old has thrived for Steve Asmussen since being freshened off runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1).

$10 Pick 3: 6 with 3, 9, 11 with 4 ($30)
$5 Pick 3: 6 with 3, 9, 11 with 6 ($15)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under-the-radar Breeders' Cup Saturday contenders
John Mucciolo

Nine Breeders’ Cup races are taking on Saturday at Keeneland, the second day of the Nov. 4-5 event. In each contest, I have tabbed a contender who will offer excellent value as a potential upset player and/or vertical exotics contender.

RELATED: Under-the-radar Breeders’ Cup Friday contenders
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)

Recent Test S. (G1) heroine #3 Chi Town Lady (20-1) is getting very good at the right time and looks like a dangerous player from off the pace. Chestnut filly has shown big improvement in her sophomore campaign since removing the blinkers, and I envision the daughter of Verrazano rallying into top-three contention late at a big number with Flavien Prat inheriting the mount.

I will also dabble with #1 Slammed (15-1) at anything close to her morning-line price. Todd Fincher trainee blitzed her foes on this track most recently, and I like the fact that she doesn’t need the lead to run well. The Marking four-year-old will have Florent Geroux in the silks.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1)

I believe that #9 Jackie’s Warrior (4-5) will cement his legacy in the dash as both the speed and class of the field, but defending champ #5 Aloha West (12-1) could be rallying best of all late at a nice price for Wayne Catalano. The Hard Spun five-year-old ran into a pair of monsters in two races to kickstart his 2022 season, then showed fight in taking the Kelly’s Landing S. at Churchill Downs in his latest performance. Maryland-bred five-year-old has run quite well in each of his prior tries over the surface, and the dark bay has also fired a pair of bullet morning drills on the surface as of late. Luis Saez will ride.

SCULLY: Jackie's Warrior pursues elusive Breeders' Cup win
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1)

A sensational field will go postward in arguably the deepest race of the weekend. I am eagerly awaiting the return of #14 Domestic Spending (8-1) in his comeback off of the 14-month absence for trainer Chad Brown, but for wagering purposes, #9 Malavath (15-1) gets the nod. Second in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Del Mar, the daughter of Mehmas got back into top form with a strong runner-up showing at ParisLongchamp last time out, and I envision the Irish-bred making another forward move on Saturday. Tyler Gaffalione will take the reins.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1)

Clement L. Hirsch (G1) heroine #2 Blue Stripe (20-1) has moved forward in each of her assignments since arriving in the U.S. last campaign. Marcelo Polanco pupil faces a daunting task in a superb field, and while winning the Distaff might be a reach, I do feel that the five-year-old mare will be well placed to earn a share inside the final furlong at a nice number.

MUCCIOLO: Tipsheet: 2022 Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)

I am firmly on the #6 Epicenter (5-1) bandwagon in the most lucrative race of the afternoon, but the horse flying under the radar most in my opinion is #5 Hot Rod Charlie (15-1). The Oxbow colt was a creditable fourth in the 2021 Classic, and the subsequent Dubai World Cup (G1) runner-up could go better this time around. Dark bay four-year-old has a lot of fight in him, and he has proven on multiple occasions that 1 1/4 miles is within his scope, too. Hot Rod Charlie will help spike the exotics in the feature under Tyler Gaffalione.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tipsheet: 2022 Breeders' Cup Mile
John Mucciolo

A phenomenal cast has been assembled for Saturday’s $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) at Keeneland. The one-mile turf test attracted numerous standout performers in what appears to be one of the most appealing races over the two-day festival of racing.

RELATED: Meet the 2022 Breeders' Cup Mile contenders
Breeders’ Cup Mile picks

#4 Modern Games
#9 Malavath
#8 Regal Glory
#13 Kinross
#11 Annapolis

Breeders’ Cup Mile wagers

$15 to win and place on #4 Modern Games ($30)
$3 Exacta key box: 4 with 8,9,11,13 ($24)
50-cent Trifecta box: 4,8,9,11,13 ($30)
Total: $84

Breeders’ Cup Mile contenders

#1 POGO rolled home to a clear score at Newmarket last time out and will make his U.S. debut in this run for Charlie Hills. The six-year-old lacks the back class of many in the field, and he will also have to overcome a tricky rail post, so others are more intriguing in the deep field.

#2 SHIRL’S SPEIGHT grabbed the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) on this course in the spring but has failed to win in four straight since for Roger Attfield. The Speightstown five-year-old packs a smart late kick and will be rallying from off the pace after saving ground in the early going. Luis Saez has the call.

#3 DREAMLOPER demolished her foes in the Prix du Moulin (G1) over soft ground at Longchamp last time out for conditioner Ed Walker. The Lope de Vega mare has done her best work with give in the ground, so if there is moisture at Keeneland over the weekend, then the mare will be especially dangerous under regular rider Kieran Shoemark.

REILLY: Under-the-radar internationals for 2022 Breeders' Cup

#4 MODERN GAMES couldn’t have looked much better when annihilating his competition in the Woodbine Mile (G1) two back for Charlie Appleby. The Godolphin homebred had a fine prep when runner-up at Royal Ascot in his latest venture, and I think the standout chestnut will be tough to upend with anything resembling his run in Canada two back. William Buick will be in the stirrups.

#5 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT is hard to back for the top prize, but the consistently very good Grade 1 winner never runs a bad one and will challenge for a top-four result for Michael McCarthy. The Midnight Lute five-year-old has finished first or second in 10 tries at this distance and was a sharp runner-up in the 2021 Mile. The speedy sort will have John Velazquez up.

#6 IVAR finished fourth and third in the last two editions of this race for Paulo Lobo. The strong late runner is a Grade 1 victor on the surface and will benefit if the pace is swift and contested on Saturday with Javier Castellano in the stirrups.

REILLY: 10 things to know about the Breeders' Cup Mile

#7 BEYOND BRILLIANT is the likely pace of the race and has to be given a peek for John Shirreffs. The Twirling Candy colt most recently led at every call in a fine City of Hope Mile (G2) coup and has posted a trio of solid morning moves in the interim. The longshot could get brave if he clears early with Victor Espinoza at the controls.

#8 REGAL GLORY has evolved into a brilliant turf performer for trainer Chad Brown. By Animal Kingdom, the classy six-year-old ran a clear second against the boys at Saratoga two prior, and she has run well over this oval on multiple occasions. Regular rider Jose Ortiz will be in the irons.

#9 MALAVATH is rounding back into top form and rates as a live upset contender beneath Tyler Gaffalione. Second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last season, the sophomore was moving well late in the Prix de la Foret (G1) in her prep for Saturday, and I expect her to be a major late player on firmer ground in this spot at a fine price.

#10 ORDER OF AUSTRALIA is a former winner of this event and put in a solid local prep for the heat when third in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) for Aidan O’Brien. The five-year-old bay doesn’t always fire, but he is going well right now, and the son of Australia also performs well on any kind of going. He will have Ryan Moore in the silks.

#11 ANNAPOLIS comes off of a dominant victory in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) here most recently for Todd Pletcher. The especially talented War Front colt has speed but is capable of running from off the pace as well, and his versatility could go a long way in this demanding assignment. The Kentucky-bred will be tough with any kind of forward move under Irad Ortiz.

#12 KING CAUSE exits a facile Knickerbocker (G3) win but will still need a huge move forward to impact this race for conditioner Mike Maker. The seven-year-old would be a massive surprise.

#13 KINROSS has rolled home to four successive wins for conditioner Ralph Beckett, with the last two coming in the Group 1 ranks. The Kingman gelding has been performing at six and seven panels overseas, but he seems poised to fire a big shot at Keeneland at a distance well within his scope. The gelded five-year-old will stalk the pace while always in range under Frankie Dettori.

#14 DOMESTIC SPENDING has been off for more than a year and will attempt to stun a fantastic field in his first outing since August of 2021 for Chad Brown. By Kingman, the five-year-old gelding is sensational when he is healthy, and the bay will be firing a big late kick if he runs to his slew of excellent morning drills in advance of Saturday. Flavien Prat retains the mount atop the classy Klaravich colorbearer.

HANSON: 2022 Breeders' Cup contenders worth considering at a price

#15 FRONT RUN THE FED is a cut below the best in the field and can’t be backed from this post if he draws into the main body of the race.

#16 GEAR JOCKEY looks overmatched at this distance while not in his best form. The Rusty Arnold pupil seems better spotted in sprint events.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, November 5
Posted by David Aragona

RACE 6: BOURBON BAY (#3)

Secret Rules (#4) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops down second off the layoff. His last couple of speed figures make him pretty formidable against this crew, and he proved that he’s still capable of producing competitive form in his return from the layoff last time. That was also his first start off the claim for Rob Falcone, where then protected him from getting claimed. However, now he drops down somewhat surprisingly, with a 10-pound apprentice rider named. He’s not for me at a short price. Lafitte’s Fleet (#2) looks like one of his main rivals as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. His best form puts him in the mix, but I didn’t think he had a major excuse when finishing 5 lengths behind Secret Rules last time. My top pick is Bourbon Bay (#3). I had been interested in this horse when he made his return from the layoff last time, where he was protected with the claiming waiver. I thought he ran an admirable race, but the 9-furlong distance proved to be too much for him to handle off the layoff. This cutback to 7 furlongs makes sense, as he’s run well in one turn races in the past. I actually think this a comparable field to the one he met last time even though it’s technically a slight rise in class.

RACE 7: GEORGEES SPIRIT (#2)

I don’t have a major knock against Redifined (#8). She’s simply the horse to beat, any way you slice it. She showed ability in her debut at Belmont earlier this year and has stepped forward with each subsequent start. She didn’t have the smoothest trip in the Bolton Landing, when she got bumped out of position at the start; still ran on well for third behind Love Reigns, one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. This filly would have merited consideration in that race herself had her connections gone in that direction after her excellent Matron performance. However, they’re taking a more conservative route here, and she appears to have found a favorable spot. The only drawback is the expected short price. I thought she ran better than Dontlookbackatall (#6) in the Matron, even though that one did have to briefly pause in upper stretch. I want to go in a different direction when looking for an alternative. Georgees Spirit (#2) showed a real affinity for turf in her second start after being meant for that surface in her career debut. She stalked the pace between horses on the turn and only worked her way into the clear at mid-stretch, at which point she really lengthened her stride to run down the leader. They tried to stretch her out last time in the Miss Grillo, but she was unwisely rated behind a slow pace and just doesn’t want to go that far right now. She gets back to the right distance and still has some upside.

RACE 8: LEDDY (#3)

I found this N1X allowance affair to be one of the most confusing races on the card. Watasha (#6) could vie for favoritism after impressively breaking his maiden here last month for Chad Brown. However, I don’t trust this horse to work out the same trip as last time, and still have some concerns about his reliability after he disappointed at short prices in the first two starts of his career. Horses like Dot’s Dollar (#2) and Prisoner (#9) are supposed to show plenty of early speed, which could set it up for a runner to rally from just off the pace. Reggae Music Man (#8) seems to fit that profile as he was rerouted here from last week’s Hudson after having a minor issue. This horse ran very well when last seen in the John Morrissey over the summer, closing effectively against some solid New York-bred sprinters. The subsequent layoff is a minor concern, but he appears to be working well for his return to the races. The removal of blinkers also suggests that they will use closing tactics again. I went in a different direction for my top pick. Leddy (#3) may look like a pace casualty at first glance, but I suspect Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano will look to get this 3-year-old back into the second flight of runners, especially considering that Rice has a speedier entrant drawn inside. He wasn’t beating much in either of his last two starts, but he was visually impressive on each occasion. That Aug. 3 race at Saratoga has proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, and he ran away authoritatively last time with a nice turn of foot. I like that Rice continues to move him up the class ladder and expect another solid performance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting with favorites on the Breeders' Cup Saturday undercard
J. Keeler Johnson

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of strategies for betting favorites in the three non-Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday at Keeneland, including the Fall Harvest S.
Keeneland, Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 10:30 a.m. ET)

The opener features a possible standout favorite in the form of #4 Arabian Knight (2-1). Sold for $2.3 million earlier this year, the son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Uncle Mo enters off fast workouts for trainer Bob Baffert, a 32% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez takes the mount.

RELATED: Exploring trainer stats and angles

Morning line second choice #12 Reagan (4-1) also boasts promising credentials. The Dallas Stewart trainee showed speed in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs, ultimately finishing second by a neck against the well-bred Tres Soles. The 86 Brisnet Speed rating Reagan received is higher than the par winning figure for Saturday’s race conditions.

Let’s bet Arabian Knight to win and play him over Reagan and longshot #9 Aerator (30-1) in the exacta. Then we’ll single Arabian Knight to kick off a double wager.

$20 to win on #4 Arabian Knight
$7 Exacta: 4 with 12
$3 Exacta: 4 with 9
$10 Double: 4 with 3
Total: $40

Keeneland, Race 2: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 11:05 a.m. ET)

#3 Messier (4-1) has been rested since finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The form of the Derby has held up well, and Messier previously showed talent finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) after winning the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) and 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3).

RELATED: Breeders' Cup 2022 post times, wagering menu, entries

Messier has been cranking out fast workouts in preparation for his return and shouldn’t mind dropping down significantly in class and distance. He’s a logical choice to lead the way home over recent Phoenix (G2) runner-up #6 Long Range Toddy (6-1), so we’ll bet Messier to win, single him to conclude our double wager, and play him on top in the exacta.

$20 to win on #3 Messier
$10 Exacta: 3 with 6
Total: $30

Keeneland, Race 12: Fall Harvest S. (one mile on turf, 6:20 p.m. ET)

We’ll wrap things up with a play in the Fall Harvest, which follows the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) as the final event on Keeneland’s Saturday card.

#5 Shantisara (6-5) is the clear morning line favorite, and it’s easy to see why. The Chad Brown trainee won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland last fall, defeating #7 Technical Analysis (3-1) by five lengths. Furthermore, Shantisara reiterated her affinity for Keeneland when finishing a strong second in the Jenny Wiley (G1) to start 2022, beaten only one length by three-time Grade 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) entrant Regal Glory.

Shantisara hasn’t run since the Jenny Wiley, but Brown wins at a 27% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Shantisara’s fine Jenny Wiley effort came off a six-month break. She should be ready for a winning run in the Fall Harvest.

SCULLY: Leveraging Breeders' Cup Saturday top play in Pick 3s

Technical Analysis is a logical choice for the minor awards, as is #4 Dalika (7-2), a speedy pacesetter entering off back-to-back wins in the Beverly D. (G1) and Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3). But we’ll also toss longshot #2 Wakanaka (12-1) into the mix; she ran second in the Just a Game (G1) during the spring, later won the Dance Smartly (G2), and exits a seventh-place finish against males in the Woodbine Mile (G1).

$7.50 Trifecta: 5 with 7 with 2,4 ($15)
$7.50 Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 7 ($15)
Total: $30

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (November 5)

Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 10 races from 10:45 to 18:00. Here are the previews:

Juvenile maidens. (11) RAON THE QUALITY has raced twice so far, doing nothing on debut but improving significantly at start number two on September 18th when 4th over 1000M, running on well. The step up in trip can suit and she can win here. (7) FARCIARZ ran well on debut over the minimum trip in early September before finding things tough in the Munhwa Ilbo Trophy against the track’s best juveniles and drawing the car park in gate fourteen. He comes back into much shallower waters here and has strong claims. (9) VISION STAR and (8) WINNER DRAGON both ran 4th on their respective debuts with both running on well over five furlongs. They too may appreciate the additional furlong today. (2) BULUI NALGAE, who overcame a wide gate last time to run a decent 4th, is another in the hunt.
Selections (11) Raon The Quality (7) Farciarz (9) Vision Star (8) Winner Dragon
Next Best 2, 10
Fast Start 3, 7, 10, 11

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

More juvenile maidens and (4) GEUMBITMA is the one to beat. After running 2nd on his second start over 1000M in August, he was given his chance in the Munhwa Ilbo Trophy against the track’s best juveniles and defied big odds to run a creditable 6th of fourteen over this distance. A repeat of that performance will make him hard to beat here. (3) DRAGON STAR comes up in trip for the first time after three solid efforts over 1000M. He has been running through the line well on each occasion and from a good gate, today may well suit. (8) RAON AMERICAN stepped up to this distance for his second outing on September 25th and having settled midfield ran on well for 2nd. Of those who have tackled the 1200M already, only Geumbitma in the Munhwa Ilbo has posted a faster time and he can be in contention here. (9) HUNTER BLADE and (2) HIGH GRAND among plenty of others with placing chances.
Selections (4) Geumbitma (3) Dragon Star (8) Raon American (9) Hunter Blade
Next Best 2, 6
Fast Start 4, 7, 8, 10

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW25 Million

Fillies (and one mare) here. (5) ANOTHER LEVEL debuted in March, posting two 3rd place finishes before not racing again until October 9th. She won a trial in the lead up to that event but having drawn wide and worked to a position behind the leaders, she weakened in the closing stages. She should have derived much benefit from that run and looks the one to beat here. The rest have patchy form. Under a light weight with an apprentice claiming 2kg, (10) GOLD KAISER might be worth a place chance. She has run fairly in two starts this preparation since returning from eight months off and could be peaking fitness wise here. (2) SHOOTING REVERSE has mixed her form across four appearances to date but does have a runner-up finish to her name at this distance and that’s enough to put her in the frame here. (6) DAESEUNG GAON and (3) RUFFIAN EAGLE are others who may enter the calculations.
Selections (5) Another Level (10) Gold Kaiser (2) Shooting Reverse (6) Daeseung Gaon
Next Best 3, 9
Fast Start 1, 3, 7, 10

Seoul Race 4: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Moon Se-young climbs aboard another favourite here in the shape of (1) STRONG CHARM. He got his maiden win in comfortable fashion on October 9th when settling midfield and running on over 1200M. That was his third start and he had shown improvement on each of them and while up in class and distance today, neither should be a problem. The main danger looks to be the similarly well-drawn (2) MAPARAM. She was sent off at big odds last time out on October 8th but led for much of the way around, ultimately finishing 2nd. That was the first time in a while that she had been ridden forward and the draw couple with the small field should enable her to do similar today. (7) HUIMANG OREUM comes up in class having got her maiden win at the fourth time of asking on October 8th. That was a big improvement but was it was over this distance in a fair time, and she can hold her own in this company. (8) HIDDEN BLADE and (5) GEUMSEONG SEGYE others with at least minor money chances.
Selections (1) Strong Charm (2) Maparam (7) Huimang Oreum (8) Hidden Blade
Next Best 5, 3
Fast Start 2, 5, 6, 8


Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(2) NAOL CHEONJI made all to win on debut over 1000M on October 1st. She is up in class and in distance here but neither should be a problem and with Moon Se-young climbing aboard, she is sure to be well backed. It could be the battle of the “Naols” and (4) NAOL SESANG is up in class following her own maiden win on October 1st. She had made three indifferent starts at the beginning of the year but returned following over six months off looking much more the part and her win came at this distance. She was on pace all the way around and will be aiming to do similar here. (9) SAENAE QUEEN was a winner on debut in August before running 2nd from a wide gate on her first try at this class and distance on September 24th. She gets no favours with the barrier again but looks a strong place chance, nevertheless. (1) ELITE RULES and (10) BURUI GASOK among others to consider for the minors.
Selections (2) Naol Cheonji (4) Naol Sesang (9) Saenae Queen (1) Elite Rules
Next Best 10, 6
Fast Start 2, 4, 6, 9

Seoul Race 6: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Small field here and (7) EUNSEONG MARU is set to be a warm favourite. Ignore her run two starts back when overmatched in a decent Trophy race on international day and instead go on her form in similar company to this, especially her last start 2nd at class and distance on October 1st. An apprentice keeps her weight down and she may take some beating. While we are in an ignoring mood, we shall extend the same courtesy to (2) NAMSAN CHOCOLATE for her latest when settling midfield and then running wide around the corner and finishing back in the pack. Instead, we’ll go on her run two starts back when 2nd from a similar barrier to today and give her another chance. (5) IMUGI overcame gate twelve to run 4th behind Eunseong Maru at his latest start. It’s fair to say he mixes his form, but a similar run will see him close here. (3) SAENAE POWERFUL and (1) GLOBAL SUN are others to keep safe.
Selections (7) Eunseong Maru (2) Namsan Chocolate (5) Imugi (3) Saenae Powerful
Next Best 1, 6
Fast Start 3, 6, 7, 8

Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Big field and one of the few races today without a clear-cut favourite. (10) YAMUJIN JAESU remains a maiden and really didn’t show much at all in his first four outings. That changed at his latest on October 2nd when sent up to this trip for the first time and running a good 2nd, coming from well off the pace. He does come up 2kg in the weights but David climbs aboard and he could go one better here. (2) OCHEONBOK is a local-bred who has won her way up to this class with two victories from five starts including last time out on September 18th when handy throughout and finishing nicely over 1300M. A previous attempt at this distance didn’t go well but she is nicely drawn and weighted today and can go close. (5) SILVER STAR was a winner at class 5 level two starts back before running 5th on her first attempt at this class at 1200M on October 1st. This is her first try at seven furlongs and given she finishes off her races well, she is worth a place line. (1) TOUCH NINE and (11) CHEONSA PARK among others in the frame.
Selections (10) Yamujin Jaesu (2) Ocheonbok (5) Silver Star (1) Touch Nine
Next Best 11, 12
Fast Start 1, 3, 8, 11

Seoul Race 8: Class 5 (1700M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

(9) LUNAR SILVER was allowed to take her chance in the final leg of the Triple Tiara and she didn’t disgrace herself, running 6th of ten over the 2000M. Since returning to shallower waters she has run well with two runner-up finishes and a 4th from three tries, all at this class. She has been a beaten favourite in her latest two, but she has also beaten a could today’s rivals in the process. She likes to be on pace and while the draw is a touch wider than ideal, she should have too much for this lot. (3) SUN FIGHTING comes in off an uptick in form at her latest start when 4th at class and distance having sat midfield and run on. That was back in July, and she hasn’t trialed, so comes in fresh but draws well and has a smart finish on her. (10) GIMCHEON YEONGUNG returned from ten months off to run 2nd over 1400M on October 8th. He should have come on for that run and can go close here too on his first try at two turns. (4) ADELE MUSTANG and (11) JIGEUMYEOGIE others worth of thought.
Selections (9) Lunar Silver (3) Sun Fighting (10) Gimcheon Yeongung (4) Adele Mustang
Next Best 11, 6
Fast Start 6, 7, 9, 10

Seoul Race 9: Class 2 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 90 Million

(10) WONPYEONG GASOK ran out a class and distance winner on October 8h, making all and beating several of these in the process. He made all that day, and it is true he has a much less favourable draw this time, as well as coming up 2kg in the weights, but he has plenty of quality and it may well see him through again. (1) GRAY CAT was a touch disappointing in that race, settling back in the pack and running on but only making it up to 5th. He gets a nice draw on the inside today, Moon Se-young is up, and he can be given another chance. (9) WONDERFUL K comes rapidly up in class having won his latest two at classes 4 and 3. Both were over this distance, and he led most of the way around both times. He is nicely weighted and while this is a much stiffer test, he can measure up. (3) JANGSAN POISON didn’t finish off well on is first try at this class on September 25th but is another who can be given another chance, while don’t rule out a return to form from (5) RAON PINK. She may bot be a winning chance but could be place value at big odds.
Selections (10) Wonpyeong Gasok (1) Gray Cat (9) Wonderful K (3) Jangsan Poison
Next Best 5, 4
Fast Start 3, 5, 10, 11

Seoul Race 10: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

(9) ASPEN TAEYANG returned to action following six-months out to win well at class and distance on October 1st. He comes up a full 5.5kg in the weights today but he should be equal to that ask and he can win again here. (4) VICS GO ran 3rd behind Aspen Taeyang in that October 1st race. That was his first try at this class following a strong win over 1300M at the end of August and from a good draw, he can be a danger again. Just like Aspen Taeyang, (5) YELLOW CAT has four wins from seven and comes in having run 2nd on her first run at class 3 level on September 25th over this distance. That day she settled back in the field and ran on, but she is versatile and can be on pace too. She carries a tiny weight and won’t be far away. (8) A TO Z needs to get cover but can be had on a place line. (6) CHOEGANG BALCK among others to be kept safe.
Selections (9) Aspen Taeyang (4) Vics Go (5) Yellow Cat (8) A To Z
Next Best 6, 7
Fast Start 2, 5, 9, 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BC Saturday race previews (Part 1)
Real Writing on Racing ��
Charles Simon

Welcome to the Going in Circles Saturday BC Race Preview (Part 1). We will be covering the FM Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, FM Turf and Sprint in the first part of the Saturday preview. As always we don’t make picks but offer previews, pointers, ideas/opinions and angles that you might not see elsewhere. We will include some videos but because of the volume of races and horses, not as many as with the two year olds. You can find a huge library of pertinent videos for all the races on our YouTube channel HERE! Let’s get to it!
BC FM Sprint Gr I $1000000 7f 3&up Fillies/Mares

Slammed - The 2022 FM Sprint isn’t a good race…it’s a great race! This New Mexico bred filly has been a late arrival to the scene but she has been making up for lost time. Drawing the rail is less than ideal in this bulky field and despite the positive of having a recent win over the surface, that was a lifetime top and regression is likely.

Edgeway - she ventured east to race in the Derby City Distaff (Gr I) on the Kentucky Derby undercard, just didn’t appear to be good enough and this is a tougher spot.

Chi Town Lady - needs massive pace meltdown and even that may not be quite enough.

Ce Ce - the defending champ appears to be rounding back into top form after throwing in a clunker at Saratoga. Should get a solid price and with all the speed signed on, she has a big chance to repeat

Frank’s Rockette - she’s as fast as anyone in here and perhaps might be overlooked as she has a habit of running second. Should be able to workout good stalking trip though she hasn’t hit the board in either Keeneland start.

Chain of Love (Jpn) - Japanese mare has been tackling males/open company for awhile, now back against females. Oddly the Japanese have no graded stakes for filly sprinters so she comes in search of blacktype. Held her own against 2021 BC Sprint (Gr I) runner-up Dr Schivel in the Golden Shaheen (Gr I) in Dubai this spring, earning a 109 Timeform ratings. William Buick picks up the mount and she has to be respected.

Obligatory - if this Breeders Cup were held at Churchill, she’d be my play. Unfortunately I don’t know that her style will work as well at Keeneland and the bulky field makes a clean trip unlikely. If a pace meltdown ensues she would be the biggest beneficiary, but even so she still needs to navigate her way through from 13th which is no small task

Goodnight Olive - got the trip of trips when taking down graded stakes fillies and mares in the Ballerina (Gr I) in her stakes debut (IMO the bump at the start ultimately helped her). That dream run is unlikely to happen again, regression is likely and she is gonna be overbet.

Sterling Silver - tough to make a case for her

Hot Peppers - will be pacesetter or presser but would need huge improvement to hang around

Wicked Halo - wheels back in 2 weeks after easy score over the track in the Raven Run (Gr II). Has the right style, has no issues being on the inside and as an improving 3yo in sharp form she is very dangerous at a price.

Lady Rocket - figures to be involved in the pace mix, but being drawn in between Hot Peppers and Echo Zulu will give new rider Joel Rosario a puzzle to solve. Tough to see her path to the winners circle.

Echo Zulu - 2021 juvenile filly champ was scratched by Rosario while warming up for the Acorn (Gr I) on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Her return to the races was a success as she wired a small group in the Dogwood (Gr III) at Churchill in September, with old-new rider Santana. Post 13 means that he has to decide whether to gun or press from the far outside with the other speed horses drawn inside her. Tough call in a very tough race.

BC Turf Sprint Gr I $1000000 5.5f grass 3&up

Creative Force (Ire) - proven group I performer for the Appleby/Buick juggernaut. Has one race with a turn and it was a good one, question is does American-style turf sprinting suit him? Demand a price ����

Flotus (Ire) - 3yo filly has had some starting gate issues which would spell doom in this spot. ����

Emaraaty Ana (GB) - was no match for Golden Pal last year, no reason to think he will be this year. ����

Campanelle (Ire) - she is good enough to beat these as demonstrated in the Platinum Jubilee (Gr I) at Ascot , has a win over the course, picks up Dettori, she should be on your tickets if you are trying to beat Golden Pal. ����

Go Bears Go (Ire) - adds blinkers but isn’t in great form currently. ����

Highfield Princess (Fr) - in raging good form currently, price isn’t appealing and question is can she chase Golden Pal and run him down late? ����

Arrest Me Red - talented turf sprinter but also third best turf sprinter in his own barn. ����

Golden Pal - The rating/dirt experiment over with, he got back to his bread and butter which is breaking from the gate faster than any horse in North America and playing catch me if you can as he did last out in the Woodford (Gr II). Can he lose? Sure. He didn’t look great in the Saratoga race and even last out he wobbled a little mid-stretch, Irad had to crack him a few times and he didn’t exactly gallop out strong. Take a short price at your own risk ����

Naval Crown (GB) - not in stellar form but Chuck Appleby don’t chase no empty wagons…use at 30-1 or higher����

Caravel - tough mare might be in a sliver too tough ����

Casa Creed - Keeneland record: 3-0-0-0. Very tough to win in Lexington using his preferred lag and make one late run style. ����

Bran (Fr) - wide trip looms ����

Cazadero - looped field over the expansive Woodbine grass course going 6f. This grass course isn’t expansive. ����

Artemus Citylimits - figures to chase from outside and hopes to last for a piece. ����

Oceanic (also eligible) - If this gelding draws in…use him! ����

BC Dirt Mile Gr I $1000000 1 mile dirt 3&up

Slow Down Andy - Against this bunch he should be named Speed Up Andy. Tough assignment

Simplification - ran a 2.5 TG way back on January 1st. Still running 2.5 TG in September. Cuts back and gets Saez but the improvement never came.

Pipeline - softened up Jackie’s Warrior in the Forego, might be on the lead here going back to two turns. Getting loose lead and breather down the backside would seem like the best plan but don’t know how effective he really is around two turns.

Law Professor - put a scare into Life is Good over BAQ slop in latest. Erratic type likely bounces off of big effort but unlike most others, is a two turn horse

Gunnite - three year old Gun Runner colt got really good sprinting this summer with an easy score just 14 days ago at Keeneland in the Perryville stakes, being the latest success. Stretching out to a 2 turn mile, coming back on short rest and tackling older foes…seems like you’d want a lot higher price than the 7-2 listed morning line.

Laurel River - late developing Baffert sprinter stretches back out here after knocking off the Pat O’ Brien (Gr II) at 7f which came after winning a pair of 2 turn dirt mile allowance races. Picks up Irad, Baffert rarely uses him and you’d think he’d be ridden aggressively stretching back out. Still a little slow on figures but has improved and might get ideal trip if he winds up on the lead.

Cody’s Wish - knocked off Jackie’s Warrior in the Forego (Gr I) with a little help from Pipeline in latest. Will his late kick be mitigated by the extra turn? Will he bounce off of the -2.25 TG? Must respect but is only one of several possibilities in here and a short price looms. Definitely has the best Backstory.

Informative - it’s Uriah so anything can happen. Literally anything can happen…

Cyberknife - can’t blame the connections for ducking the Classic as he would be a longshot to even hit the board in there. In here…the one to beat. Flo Go should be able to workout a decent trip and IMO he still has one last jump in him this year. Unlike many of the others, he is a true two turn horse who has been keeping the very best of company and the actual distance in this race is closer to 1 mile and 70 yards than a mile.

Senor Buscador - another one that we have questions for about a second turn. If you missed the wedding…don’t be there for the divorce.

Three Techniques - Jason Cook has done a great job with this gelding but the post hurts and the two turns is a mystery. Using underneath at huge price isn’t the worst idea though.

BC FM Turf Gr I $2000000 1 3/16ths turf 3&up F/M

Lady Speightspeare - Canadian campaigner stretches out for the great Roger Attfield. Saez picks up the reins, she has speed…the question is will he use it against In Italian (GB) or will this be like so many other graded turf stakes where the lead is simply conceded? IMO riding her aggressively puts her in better position to get on the board as I don’t see her chasing In Italian (GB) and still out finishing the Euro-fillies. ����

Going to Vegas - this mare was the recipient of one of those lead concessions in the Rodeo Drive (Gr I) at SA, her prep for this. She set the pace in last years FM Turf and got beat 26 so I’m guessing new plan. Just seems a cut below the best. ����

Nashwa (GB) - three year old Frankel filly is the highest of high class runners shipping in for this. Handles all manners of ground, she should get good position under Hollie Doyle and looms as the one to beat. ����

Above The Curve - another outstanding three year old filly trained by Joe O’Brien, comes out of same blanket finish in the Prix de L’ Opera (Gr I) as Nashwa (GB), not much separates those two. Johnny V picks up the mount as regular rider Ryan Moore stick’s with Aiden’s filly, Tuesday (Ire) . Big chance. ����

Tuesday (Ire) - another three year old shipper, this Galileo filly faded late in the Prix de I’Opera (Gr I) and might be considered the lessor of the top three European three year old fillies. Still she might prefer firmer ground, has some huge running lines on her card and Moore/O’Brien are always dangerous. ����

Mise En Scene (GB) - she traveled to Del Mar last year and faded in the Juvy filly turf. Hasn’t really gotten much done as a three year old, was second in low rated stakes at Yarmouth in latest. Would be a shocker. ����

Toy (Ire) - runner up in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) in July, she tuned up for this in a minor event at Naas. Stranger things have happened but she is more of a B team type of Euro-shipper. ����

Family Way - 2022 record. 7 starts. 6 on the board finishes. 1 win. She is ultra consistent but more likely to be a runner up than a winner. ����

Roughir (Fr) - hard to gauge as she wants some cut in the ground and might not get it. If a quick pace materializes, it plays into her favor with her over the top closing style, otherwise she may find herself with too much to do.����

Virginia Joy (Ger) - literally stole a Gr II when dawdling to an uncontested 1:19.2 fraction in the “What the hell is Rosario doing on War Like Goddess?” Flower Bowl last out. In here she just sort of gets in the way or perhaps rides shotgun for In Italian (GB)? Prefer most others.����

In Italian (GB) - The biggest question in this particular event is does this filly get pressured on the lead in her first attempt beyond 9 furlongs? If she gets even token pressure can she hold off the Euro-three year olds, all of whom get a 4 lb weight break too. If she gets a walking lead, she may be able to sprint home and maintain a safe distance. I don’t have the answer at this time. See how the grass plays on Friday, it might matter. ����

Moira - talented three year old Canadian filly handled the switch to the grass with aplomb, just missing to Roughir (Fr) in the EP Taylor (Gr I) despite having to alter course plus hesitating for a split second when she almost put Lemista (Ire) over the rail. Dettori picks up the mount and the 2002 Frankie might have enough magic to figure a winning trip but alas time waits for no one, it’s 2022. ����

BC Sprint Gr I $2000000 6 furlongs 3&up

Manny Wah - What has become of the American Sprinter? We have ONE graded stakes quality sprinter with speed? Groovy is turning over in his grave. One horse who definitely doesn’t have speed is Manny Wah, who sort of backed into the Sprint by picking up the pieces in a soft edition of the Phoenix (Gr II). Amazingly that race featured what looks to be a far stronger early pace than this one.

Kimari - I get what Wesley is doing with her but he should have found a rabbit to add to the mix to really shake things up. She does love Keeneland and should be siting within striking distance of Jackie’s Warrior if anyone dares put some pressure on him. If you don’t want JW, you probably should take her, I have a hard time conjuring up a case for anyone else.

O Besos - when I saw he was entered I said there used to be a decent Kentucky Derby trail horse with a similar name but he wasn’t a sprinter so this must be someone else. It wasn’t. It was him! Always root for Greg Foley but I don’t think that will be enough here.

American Theorum - the lone West Coast hope. What happened to ‘California Speed’ ??? Very Subtle would be disgusted at this turn of events. Anyway he is a solid citizen sort who has been in super form since concentrating on sprints. His style requires that someone force the pace as he generally makes his move at the quarter-pole and unless pressure materializes, Jackie’s Warrior might be gone by that point. He doesn’t really have much recourse so Joe Bravo has to bide his time and hope for the best.

Aloha West - last years Phoenix (Gr II) winner parlayed a perfect trip, a less than 100% Jackie’s Warrior and a head-bob into million dollar payday and Breeders Cup Sprint trophy for the Catman. He has mostly kicked around in 2022 and likely won’t get that same strong pace he received last year to unleash his closing kick into. Off to stud at Mill Ridge soon…he always has Del Mar to think about in between meeting new mares…

Elite Power - Curlin colt has been a little slow to develop but is in very good form now. Destroyed a poor field in the Vosburgh (Gr II) (Groovy just rolled over again ��) but can’t hold that against him. Like many others he is more of a stalking type that may be forced into chasing because of the absence of early speed in the Breeders Cup freakin Sprint! I’d like to make a futures wager on him to win the 2023 Met Mile.

Super Ocho (Chi) - strictly for Chad ‘Ochocinco’ fans.

CZ Rocket - when an 8 year old wins a big race it’s usually one of those ‘feel good’ types of stories. If CZ Rocket wins, it won’t be a ‘feel good’ story except for maybe Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears who has had odd man-crush on him forever.

Jackie’s Warrior - looser than loose on the lead, really no excuses this time unless he stumbles bad or a meteorite falls from the sky and strikes him at the quarter pole. If you look up “The one to beat” in the ‘racing dictionary’, a picture of Jackie’s Warrior under a Rosario stranglehold will be staring back at you.

Willy Boi - FREE WILLY! He actually has pretty decent amount of early lick though I doubt it will be utilized dueling with JW.

Flash Of Mischief - Broberg makes the Breeders Cup! What a story that would make…