Saturday 11/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Five Diamonds preview & betting strategy | November 5, 2022
November 2, 2022 7:54 pm.
Ciaran Jackman

What 2022 Five Diamonds
Where Rosehill Gardens Racecourse – James Ruse Dr, Rosehill NSW 2142
When Saturday, November 5, 2022 | 4:50pm AEDT | Race 8
Prizemoney $2,000,000
Distance 1800m
Status Special Conditions
Conditions Set Weights | 5YO

Visit Ladbrokes

The inaugural running of the Five Diamonds will headline the meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday as the Sydney Spring Carnival comes to a close. The Five Diamonds is a new race that has been introduced by Racing New South Wales to entice staying four-year-olds to keep racing into their five-year-old season. The prize pool for the Five Diamonds is a massive $2 million, with the winner of the 1800m race taking home $1.15 million.

Online Bookmakers have the winner of the Five Diamonds Prelude, Ellsberg, as their clear market favourite at $2.45. Only two more runners are in single figures — the Annabel Neasham-trained Laws Of Indices ($5.50) and the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Ayrton ($7.50). With a few of the horses in the Five Diamonds field having run on Tuesday, we could see a few more scratchings, which could reduce the field from 13 to a possible field of 10.

The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained Ellsberg will look to take up the running, jumping from barrier two, while Milford and Ayrton will look to cross from wider barriers and hold prominent, on-pace positions. Uncle Bryn, Diamil and Rebel Rama will aim to sit better than midfield on settling as all three of them jump from middle to outside barriers. Laws Of Indices and Rustic Steel look to be the only genuine swoopers and back markers engaged in this race, so they will need to keep in contact with the field and make sure they don’t get too far back in the running.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Five Diamonds.

Laws Of Indices will be dropping back from Group 1 grade having run in the Cox Plate, Toorak Handicap and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes this preparation. This five-year-old son of Power has been in Australia for just over 12 months, and he has competed in Group 1 grade at all bar two of his 11 starts here. This guy is the clear class horse in this race along with the favourite as they have been very good at Group 1 level this preparation. If you can forget his run in the Cox Plate and go back to his two eye-catching efforts in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and Toorak Handicap, it is easy to make a very strong case for this guy in a five-year-old race over 100m at set weights and penalties.

We are by no means knocking the race favourite, but at this price it is hard to have Ellsberg on top, considering it will be his first attempt at a distance longer than 1600m. This five-year-old son of Spill The Beans was very good when winning the Five Diamonds Prelude as the race favourite, leading from barrier to winning post and beating most of the field that he will meet on Saturday. If he gets a soft lead out in front, with no pressure throughout the first half of the race, he could easily be too far in front of his rivals on the turn and kick away to win. Nevertheless, we are willing to take the risk that he doesn’t get an easy lead.

The John O’Shea-trained Diamil was a very good winner last start over 1600m at Randwick, and given that he was the favourite that day, it is puzzling that he is $11 with the betting sites for this race. If there is one runner in this field that can spoil the party for our top two picks, it could very well be this guy, so keep him safe in any exotics.

Ayrton sits on the third line of betting and is under the odds, in our opinion. Considering he has never won at the 1800m and he will have to cross from barrier 11 as he likes to race on-pace, it gives us enough negatives to have this guy at the bottom of the winning chances.
2022 Five Diamonds selections & best bets

Selections:

2
LAWS OF INDICES

bet365
silks1
ELLSBERG

unibet
silks9
DIAMIL

Ladbrokes
silks4
AYRTON

Palmerbet

$100 betting strategy
$70 win Laws Of Indices (#2) @ $5.50 with Ladbrokes
$30 win Diamil (#9) @ $11 with Neds

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2022 VRC Champions Stakes preview & tips | Saturday, November 5
November 3, 2022 4:27 pm.
James Herbert

What 2022 VRC Champions Stakes
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, November 5, 2022
Prizemoney $3,000,000
Distance 2000m
Status Group 1
Conditions Weight For Age
2021 Winner Zaaki (8) | T: Annabel Neasham | J: James McDonald (59kg)

Visit Ladbrokes

The feature event on the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival is the Group 1 VRC Champions Stakes in what shapes to be very similar to what we saw in the Cox Plate a fortnight ago.

The quinella from that race, Anamoe ($2.20) and I’m Thunderstruck ($4.50), head the market with online Bookmakers for the $3 million event, with Zaaki ($8.50) and Mo’unga ($11) the obvious dangers to the market-leading duo.

We expect Jamie Kah to use the barrier to her advantage aboard Zaaki and take up the running, like they did in the Cox Plate, with Hinged and the two three-year-old’s in the event Elliptical and Mr Maestro to be prominent upon settling alongside Anamoe. Look for the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr pair I’m Thunderstruck and Mo’unga to be towards the rear of the field before flashing home late in the 2000m event.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting tips for the 2022 Champions Stakes.

I’m Thunderstruck was arguably the run of the race in the Cox Plate having been boxed away close to last on the rail, before forcing his way through the field and eventually going down by under a half-length. With a clearer run, he might’ve been able to blouse Anamoe. He returns to Flemington, a track he has not finished outside of the top two from three runs and boasts a win second-up at the Flemington mile in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He has shown in his last two runs that he can see out the 2000m and considering he hasn’t been all that far away from Anamoe, he looks the smarter play at the price in the Champions Stakes.

Despite having I’m Thunderstruck on top, there is no knock on Anamoe. His grand final was always going to be the Cox Plate and we are happy to risk him in the VRC Champions Stakes, despite his undefeated campaign thus far. From barrier four, James McDonald will have in the one-one throughout much like he did in the Cox Plate and if he is lucky enough to do so, the tactical advantage over his main market rival might prove to be the difference. He has achieved everything he can on a racetrack so far and a win on his Flemington debut would cap off a truly remarkable 12 months for this Godolphin superstar.

If Mo’unga didn’t crab around the home corner in the Cox Plate, he arguably would have finished much closer than he did when beaten a touch over two-lengths and was no doubt hitting the line better than Zaaki. The one benefit Zaaki has in a race like this is that he should gain an uncontested lead throughout and if he can slip his rivals at the clock tower, he is sure to take some running down.

The 2022 VRC Champions Stakes shapes as one of the best races throughout the week and what a way to help round out such a successful Melbourne Cup Carnival.
2022 Champions Stakes selections & best bets

Selections:

1
I’M THUNDERSTRUCK

bet365
silks7
ANAMOE

unibet
silks3
MO’UNGA

Ladbrokes
silks2
ZAAKI

Palmerbet

$100 betting strategy
$100 win I’m Thunderstruck (#1) @ $4.50 with Bet365

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Daily Racing Tips – bet365 Geelong – November 5th

Home - Expert Tips - Harry White - Daily Racing Tips – bet365 Geelong – November 5th

Harry White

RSN Expert Form Analyst Harry White has the best Daily Racing Tips for bet365 Geelong on Saturday the 5th of November for the RSN Punter.

Along with our Daily Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus Interstate Racing Tips, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.
Harry White bet365 Geelong Tips

bet365 Geelong, 5th November 2022

Race 1 Selections: 15,10,8,13
Race 2 Selections: 6,17,8,2
Race 3 Selections: 4,5,2,14
Race 4 Selections: 5,1,6,8
Race 5 Selections: 10,12,5,6
Race 6 Selections: 1,5,11,8
Race 7 Selections: 12,3,7,10
Race 8 Selections: 3,6,1,5
Race 9 Selections: 14,9,13,12
Race 10 Selections: 2,4,5,9

Best Bet

Race 2 – 6. Midtown Boss
Value Bet

Race 9 – 14. Deny Knowledge
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 3,7,10,11,12
Quaddie 2: 1,3,4,5,6
Quaddie 3: 9,13,14
Quaddie 4: 2,4,5,9
Play Of The Day

All up Race 4 #4/ Race 4 #5

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BREEDERS’ CUP PICK 5 BEGINS AND ENDS WITH FLIGHTLINE IN SEARCH OF LEGENDARY STATUS
By John Pricci - On the Line

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, November 3, 2022 – There are championship titles on the line and possible scores to be made. But let’s start at the end of Championship Saturday and work our way back from the 39th renewal of Thoroughbred racing’s crowning event, the 48 hours of Breeders’ Cup:

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC Race 11 Saturday, November 5, 2022

The Skinny: What, you were expecting something clever from this analysis? Well, then, here it is:

Flightline is historically brilliant, and if his career does not extend beyond Saturday, or if he meets a shockingly similar fate as a Baaeed, or a Bulldog Hanover, no one can ever take away his 128 Beyer rating, his minus 8-1/2 Thoro-Graph figure, or his minus-2 Ragozin stature.

Those statistics belong in a speed-figure time capsule.

An undefeated six-race career and Horse of the Year title would be mere chump change for an animal with his historic zip. Anything less than a blowout victory would be a major disappointment to racing fans, we dare say, the world over.

No disrespect to Spectacular Bid, but the buzz surrounding this horse has not been seen in a half century, a.k.a. the scintillating seventies.

I could bet on Epicenter without apology because that’s what the concept of value demands, but I’m not going to do that. I’m going to key Flightline in a Trifecta part wheel using only Epicenter and Hot Rod Charlie to complete the play. If I’m flush, I will use ALL in the second, fourth and fifth slots of a HI-5, putting myself in a position to make a score.

But I will enjoy the 39th renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Classic because the sport is top of mind with profits finishing a bad second.

I don’t know if an entire country has been distracted by the match race between democracy and autocracy. However, I do know that when the official is posted sometime around 6 pm Saturday, I will accept the result because it’s the responsible and grown-up thing to do.

The sports world needs to know that a phenomenal equine walks among us, and the rest of the world could use two minutes of glorious distraction. So say a prayer for a safe and speedy for Flightline and for all the rest this weekend. Then, on Tuesday, go vote.

PICK 5 RATINGS

A: Flightline

B: Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Flightline

POTENTIAL EXOTICS VALUE: Hot Rod Charlie, Olympiad

G1 BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT Race 7

The Skinny: The race begins, and dare we say ends, with a championship title defense, the final career race of 9-Jackie’s Warrior (4-5) in which he will effort to amass a career slate of (18) 13-2-1.

Some will argue that he doesn’t appear as brilliant in 2022 as he was at 3. Don’t blame the colt; blame it on rivals who would not dare challenge his blazing speed. Early fractions of 22+ and 45+ are but a tad more than open gallops for this guy. He appears unbeatable and comes in fresh.

‘Jackie’ is well drawn outside, just in another speedster looks to commit pace suicide, providing an option for regular partner Joel Rosario. Given that he’s scheduled for stud duty in 2023, we don’t expect Steve Asmussen to leave anything in the tank.

From a betting perspective, we almost wish he wasn’t in this as the filly 2-Kimari (4-1) would have been a much more bettable public choice; she’s fast, 2-for-2 at the trip and (3) 2-1-0 in Lexington. 6-Elite Power (6-1) had his issues at 2 and three but after finishing third in his 4-year-old debut, he broke maiden and won three straight after that including the G2 Vosburgh.

4-American Theorem (10-1) is the west’s fastest gun, Bravo rides him as if he owns him, and Papaprodromou is having a solid year with his sprinters. 8-C Z Rocket (20-1), whose post matches his age, loves Keeneland and benefits from a switch to Prat. 5-Aloha West (12-1) is a live money threat, as is the freshened, improved 10-Willy Boi (30-1).

PICK 5 RATINGS

A: Jackie’s Warrior

B: Kimari, Elite Power

C: American Theorem, C Z Rocket

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Jackie’s Warrior

POTENTIAL VALUE IN ANY POOL: Elite Power, American Theorem, CZ Rocket and Willy Boi

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE Race 8

The Skinny: This time, if you like 4-Modern Games (7-2), bet him and he wins, you will be paid actual money. His merits are obvious. A defending Breeders’ Cup champion, his G1 Woodbine Mile score was dominating, his turn of foot electric. In a fashion, his placing on soft ground at Ascot spoke louder in that he struggled over the course but still finished up courageously to gain the place. His turn of foot should prove the difference in a race with plenty of speed signed on.

Got to love the mare 8-Regal Glory (6-1), big won value on the early line. Her stalking style, widish draw and love of the trip (14) 7-5-0 gives her an excellent upset chance. 14-Domestic Spending (8-1) is a huge ask, going a mile off a year’s layup from post 14. But Prat is the pilot and Chad the engineer; he’s worked himself into the race.

10-Order of Australia (12-1), a Breeders’ Cup winner a few years back, is rounding back into top form, improving with blinkers, and reunites with Ryan Moore. 11-Annapolis (10-1) jumped up to win the G1 Turf Mile over the course, has Irad and 3YO gets three pounds. 5-Smooth Like Strait (10-1) is fast and uber consistent but highly likely to be pressured. 13-Kinross (9-2), as mentioned yesterday, we’re hair splitting trying to beat this well regarded Euro but wide draw and lack of deep ground works against the 5YO here. [ Ed Note: Should it rain, now back as possible in the forecast, Upgrade to an “A” Pick 5 Rating (1103122 at 3:15 pm) ]

PICK 5 RATINGS

A: Modern Games, Regal Glory

B: Domestic Spending, Order of Australia, Annapolis

C: Smooth Like Strait, Kinross

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Modern Games

POTENTIAL VALUE IN ANY POOLS: Regal Glory, Order of Australia, Annapolis

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF Race 9

The Skinny: Is this handicapping puzzle as simple as “which Todd do you like?” Hold that thought for a minute while I pose another puzzle: “Who is going to challenge 8-Society (6-1) on the lead?” On paper, at least, no one. And she’s been very cleverly campaigned by Steve Asmussen, has gotten good at precisely the right time.

Of course, the race goes through the Todd Team of 6-Nest 9-5) and 1-Malathaat (3-1). The former is the divisional leading 3-year-old filly and has flirted with becoming America’s best sophomore, period, but looms an underlay. But her older mate is a defending champion who owns fast figures and delivers them with consistency. Johnny will keep her relatively close. Pick your poison: Nest 3-for-4 at the trip or Malathaat, 3-for-3. Offers value at early-line odds.

Noting that, 4-Clairiere (4-1) has defeated her twice. Her last is a complete toss as she lost it badly in the gate and never got into the race—never. Rosario has been aboard for her three most recent wins and we’re sure he and Asmussen have figured something out. 7-Search Results (9-2) never runs a bad race and while 2-Blue Stripe (20-1) had never faced the likes of these, she’s been training up a storm at Keeneland; fodder for the exotica mill.

PICK 5 RATINGS:

A: Malathaat, Nest

B: Clairiere, Society

C: Search Results

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Nest

POTENTIAL VALUE IN ANY POOL: Malathaat, Clairiere, Society

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF Race 10

The Skinny: Us vs. them and surprise, surprise, we like America’s chances, more specifically Bill Mott’s and his all-star filly, 2-War Like Goddess (9-2). While some will point to a perfect garden trip off soft fractions, we’ll concentrate on improved tactical speed, a first, and the fact she’s never been beaten here (2-for-2) or at the trip (5-for-5). Trust me; it’s near impossible to go undefeated in as many starts with a deep closer in mostly pace-less races. Fillies know how to win this race; I’ll take three pounds and Joel. Of course, they have the Euros to beat.

So, which import: one of Charlie Appleby’s par, one of the O’Brien pair, or John Gosden’s world travelling 11-Mishriff (6-1), making the final start of his career and reuniting with Hollywood Frankie? While it’s true he may have lost a step this season, he’s still very good and classy enough.

Appleby will saddle the two early favorites and it’s a jump ball: 5-Rebel’s Romance (3-1) has come to hand as a gelded 4-year-old and Appleby has chosen the Group 1 path of least resistance, having taken his last two in Germany. Pointed specifically, this would be his fifth straight score. Barn mate 7-Nation’s Pride (7-2) has good spacing and loves the ground he gets in the U.S. with main go-to William Buick in the boot.

4-Broome (12-1) ran a winning race in the Turf at Del Mar but settled for place behind the relentless Yibir. He had a terrible trip in Saratoga’s G1 Sword Dancer this year and still nearly pulled it off and his two recent losses at home came on soft ground, something he won’t have to deal with here. Likely stalker Channel Maker (30-1) is honest and could land a minor share; better than the early line indicates.

PICK 5 RATINGS

A: War Like Goddess, Rebel’s Romance, Nation’s Pride, Mishriff and Broome

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: War Like Goddess

POTENTIAL VALUE IN ANY POOL: War Like Goddess, Mishriff, Broome

Any exotics should be made at minimums available. Straight wagers, proportionately, are in $2 units or greater

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Keeneland Breeders' Cup Saturday Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022



KEENELAND TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
BEST BET: #4 ARABIAN KNIGHT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 4 Arabian Knight J R Velazquez
PLACE 9-2 6 Fashion King T Gaffalione
SHOW 4-1 12 Reagan L Saez
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Dakota Run D Cohen
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 10 Expect More I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Rocket and Roll J Rosario

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/12 BOX, 1/6/12 BOX

RACE #2 $195,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:05 AM ET
BEST BET: #2 NAKATOMI

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 2 Nakatomi T Gaffalione
PLACE 4-1 3 Messier J R Velazquez
SHOW 6-1 6 Long Range Toddy L Saez
WILD CARD 6-1 5 Gun It J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 30-1 12 No Shirt No Shoes K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 14 Fortin Hill J Castellano

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $1,000,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:50 AM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 8 Goodnight Olive I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 6-1 13 Echo Zulu R Santana Jr.
SHOW 15-1 1 Slammed F Geroux
WILD CARD 8-1 7 Obligatory J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Ce Ce V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 12 Lady Rocket J Rosario

* EXACTA: 8/1,4,7,12 ,13 & 1,4,7,12,13/8
* TRIFECTA: 8,13/1,7,8,13/1,4,7,8,12,13
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE has not been challenged in her last five races and ran her best fractions last out. ECHO ZULU will have to hustle to get to the front. A bullet work in her last training session says she will be up to the task. SLAMMED is the inside speed riding the rail. She could make it really hard for other fast horses to clear her before the turn. OBLIGATORY will have plenty of pace to chase. She should blow by tiring horses down the stretch.

RACE #4 $1,000,000 STAKES
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:29 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC TURF SPRINT GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 6 Highfield Princess J Hart
PLACE 2-1 8 Golden Pal I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 8-1 4 Campanelle L Dettori
WILD CARD 6-1 11 Casa Creed L Saez
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 7 Arrest Me Red J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 12 Bran V Cheminaud

* EXACTA: 6,8/4,6,7,8,11,12
* TRIFECTA: 6,8/4,6,8,11/4,6,7,8,11,12
COMMENTS: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS found her form winning three Group I races in a row and is two for two in short sprints. GOLDEN PAL has a lot of early burst and is coming off her fastest race to date. She could be a lot better in round two off the sidelines. CAMPANELLE loves these short trips around the track with three wins and a third in four tries. The third was on a soft track. She prefers a firmer course which is what she will get. CASA CREED is a straight pace play. She has the most late pace in the field as the lone pure closer and will have plenty of speed to chase.

RACE #5 $1,000,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC BIG ASS FANS DIRT MILE GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 5 Gunite T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-2 6 Laurel River I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 8-1 3 Pipeline F Prat
WILD CARD 5-2 7 Codys Wish J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1 9-2 9 Cyberknife F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 1 Slow Down Andy M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 3,5,6,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,6,7/5,6/1,3,5,6,7,9
COMMENTS: GUNITE was better from the gate to the wire in his last race. He will be hard to pass if he keeps the lead into the stretch. LAUREL RIVER should sit right behind the leaders and use his race best late pace to catch them for the photo. PIPELINE and CODYS WISH faced each other three times in the last nine races. CODYS WISH won the last one but PIPELINE owns the other two.

RACE #6 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC FILLY AND MARE TURF STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 11 In Italian J Rosario
PLACE 9-2 4 Above the Curve J R Velazquez
SHOW 5-2 3 Nashwa H Doyle
WILD CARD 10-1 12 Moira L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 1 Lady Speightspeare L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Tuesday R L Moore

* EXACTA: 3,4,11,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,11,12/3,4,11/1,3,4,5,11,12
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN will try to go wire to wire for the sixth time in nine races. Her resume says she should pop in the second start after a layoff. ABOVE THE CURVE and NASHWA essentially tied in their last race. Both should contend again. We will give ABOVE THE CURVE a slight edge as she will be more forwardly placed and likely to encounter less traffic. MOIRA started her career with five all weather races and tried turf for the first time last out. She just missed in the first grass go and will likely be better today.

RACE #7 $2,000,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC SPRINT GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-5 9 Jackies Warrior J Rosario
PLACE 4-1 2 Kimari J L Ortiz
SHOW 12-1 5 Aloha West L Saez
WILD CARD 20-1 3 O Besos T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 8 C Z Rocket F Prat
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 10 Willy Boi C Sutherland

* EXACTA: 2,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
* TRIFECTA: 2,9/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,8,9,10
COMMENTS: JACKIES WARRIOR is likely to get tested in this race and work to get the win. He should get the job done as the most complete horse from start to finish. KIMARI is two for two at the distance and can show more in his second start after a layoff. ALOHA WEST has been running well over the Keeneland track with a pair of bullet workouts. O BESOS is a very consistent performer and will be making up ground late.

RACE #8 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC MILE GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 10-1 11 Annapolis I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 9-2 13 Kinross L Dettori
SHOW 7-2 4 Modern Games W T Buick
WILD CARD 8-1 14 Domestic Spending F Prat
ALTERNATE 1 30-1 2 Shirls Speight L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 8 Regal Glory J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 4,11,13,14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4,11,13,14/4,11,13/2,4,8,11,13,14
COMMENTS: ANNAPOLIS is marching up the performance ladder and is a pair of seconds from being undefeated in seven. KINROSS is on a four race win streak and is just two necks from six of his last seven. MODERN GAMES won both of his North American races with ease. He likes the distance too with three wins and two seconds in five tries. DOMESTIC SPENDING makes his return to racing after more than a year off. If he regains his old form then 8 to 1 will look like a gift.

RACE #9 $2,000,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC DISTAFF GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 1 Malathaat J R Velazquez
PLACE 9-5 6 Nest I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 6-1 8 Society F Geroux
WILD CARD 9-2 7 Search Results F Prat
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Clairiere J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Blue Stripe H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,8/1,6,8/1,2,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: MALATHAAT is not all that far from winning all 13 of her career races. The most she has been beaten by is one and a half lengths. NEST has three wins and a second on an off track in four at the distance. SOCIETY won five of six races. The lone miss followed a stumble and bump at the break. SEARCH RESULTS has the best combination of early and late ability.

RACE #10 $4,000,000 STAKES
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $4M BC TURF GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 2 War Like Goddess J Rosario
PLACE 7-2 7 Nations Pride W T Buick
SHOW 15-1 1 Bye Bye Melvin F Lynch
WILD CARD 3-1 5 Rebels Romance J Doyle
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 13 Highland Chief J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Broome I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 1,2,5,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,5,7/2,7/1,2,4,5,7,13
COMMENTS: WAR LIKE GODDESS ran the highest last race speed figure in a Grade I win in her last and the fourth consecutive increase. NATIONS PRIDE really did not have to work that hard to win his last race as the heavy favorite. He should have plenty in the tank for today. BYE BYE MELVIN can take them wire to wire if he can get away with the right fractions. REBEL ROMANCE has won all his races since moving to turf but none against any of the top European names. This will be his stiffest competition.

RACE #11 $6,000,000 STAKES
1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $6M BC CLASSIS GRADE I

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-5 4 Flightline F Prat
PLACE 6-1 2 Life Is Good I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 10-1 7 Olympiad J Alvarado
WILD CARD 5-1 6 Epicenter J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 15-1 5 Hot Rod Charlie T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Taiba M E Smith

* EXACTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7
* TRIFECTA: 2,4/2,4,6,7/1,2,4,5,6,7
COMMENTS: Everybody wants to see the battle between FLIGHTLINE and LIFE IS GOOD. That is what we will likely see. Both horses should be forwardly placed and could run one two all the way around the track. OLYMPIAD won seven of his last eight races including one at todays distance in his last. EPICENTER is a three year old facing off against elite four year olds. Overcoming the age difference can be a big ask at three.

RACE #12 $350,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 FALL HARVEST STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-5 5 Shantisara F Prat
PLACE 15-1 3 Burning Ambition F Geroux
SHOW 3-1 7 Technical Analysis J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 15-1 8 Sunny One J Graham
ALTERNATE 1 7-2 4 Dalika B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Henrietta Topham T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 5/3,4,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 5/3,4,7,8/3,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: SHANTISARA ran the top last race speed figure and drops in class. BURNING AMBITION has upped her speed figure four races in a row and never missed the money in seven races. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS tends to win when she is the favorite. She will not be the favorite here unless the top choice scratches. SUNNY ONE ran some better early fractions last out despite going a little longer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022

AQUEDUCT TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 10:50 AM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 3 Idea Generation M Franco
PLACE 5-1 8 Spelterini J Lezcano
SHOW 5-1 2 Kingmaking P Lopez
WILD CARD 6-1 9 Hola Gata E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 6 Highland Grace D Davis
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Natural Beauty T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX

RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:33 AM ET
BEST BET: #5 RIAS ANGEL

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 5 Rias Angel J A Gomez
PLACE 20-1 1 Sight Unseen H K Harkie
SHOW 9-2 8 Nicholas James M Franco
WILD CARD 5-1 4 Milano R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1 5-2 3 Iron Lion in Zion T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Achilles Heel A S Worrie

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 VIRADIA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 7 Viradia M Franco
PLACE 5-2 2 Melting Snow D Davis
SHOW 6-1 4 Summer Brew E Cancel
WILD CARD 6-1 5 Daily Briefing J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1 9-2 8 Diva Banker K Davis
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Afleet Diva T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 $120,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:53 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 4 Inflation Nation D Davis
PLACE 5-2 3 Vacation Dance K Carmouche
SHOW 8-1 5 Chiringo E Cancel
WILD CARD 9-5 1 No Nay Hudson P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Be of Courage R Silvera

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #5 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 3 Your Mission M Franco
PLACE 5-2 10 On Palm Sunday K Carmouche
SHOW 9-2 1 Addicted to You E Cancel
WILD CARD 6-1 7 Central Pride D Davis
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 6 The Sleepychipmunk J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 9 Sense a Giant K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX

RACE #6 $25,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SECRET RULES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 4 Secret Rules M Olver
PLACE 5-2 2 Lafittes Fleet D Davis
SHOW 12-1 1 Super John A Wolfsont
WILD CARD 5-1 3 Bourbon Bay T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 8 Risk Profile J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 5 Tapizearance O Hernandez Moreno

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #7 $120,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 8 Redifined J Lezcano
PLACE 8-1 1 Moonage Daydream R Gutierrez
SHOW 2-1 9 Shidabhuti M Franco
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Georgees Spirit M Franco
ALTERNATE 1 5-2 6 Dontlookbackatall T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 3 Showgirl Lynne B K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX

RACE #8 $90,000 ALLOWANCE
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 3 Leddy J Lezcano
PLACE 7-2 8 Reggae Music Man P Lopez
SHOW 3-1 6 Watasha M Franco
WILD CARD 10-1 2 Dots Dollar E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1 7-2 4 Life Changer J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Prisoner D Davis

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX

RACE #9 $75,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 1 Bricco J A Gomez
PLACE 3-1 12 Battle Scars D Davis
SHOW 5-1 8 Mr. Kringle K Carmouche
WILD CARD 8-1 5 Excursionniste T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1 5-2 3 Action Jackson M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Voliero E Cancel

* EXACTA: 1-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/12 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX

RACE #10 $30,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 15 Impulsiveness K Carmouche
PLACE 6-1 8 Breadman K Carmouche
SHOW 3-1 2 Timbuktu M Franco
WILD CARD 10-1 12 Hard Rye Guy J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Fast Gordon P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 1 Gooch Go Bragh J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 15-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/15 BOX, 2/8/12 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Tip Sheet - November 5

November 4, 2022

SANTA ANITA TIPS - SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 3 Midnight Majesty R A Vazquez
PLACE 3-1 5 Synnin and Winnin E A Maldonado
SHOW 3-1 6 New York Dreams T J Pereira
WILD CARD 10-1 2 Curly Esa T Baze
ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Precedent A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 7 Chicago Soldier K Frey

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #2 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 FAMOUS STAR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 2 Famous Star R A Vazquez
PLACE 4-1 5 Tenth Street Don K Frey
SHOW 7-2 6 Honeymoon Suite T Baze
WILD CARD 4-1 1 Mastermind R Curatolo
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 7 Commander Carl E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Apfel A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MISTER BEAMS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 4 Mister Beams A Cedillo
PLACE 4-1 2 Chicks Dig It E K Rojas Fernandez
SHOW 9-5 3 Bizzy Gal R A Vazquez
WILD CARD 5-2 1 Marks Hip E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1 10-1 5 Wegotbeeronice K Frey

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #4 $28,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-5 5 Hialeah Hottie A Cedillo
PLACE 4-1 2 Draw Near T Baze
SHOW 5-1 3 Forest Acclamation E A Ellingwood
WILD CARD 12-1 6 Short Journey E K Rojas Fernandez
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Love Our Family K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Royale Flare J D Lopez

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 10 I Know Cash Flow A Alsagoor
PLACE 5-2 5 Liberty Forever R A Vazquez
SHOW 6-1 3 Nice Guy Clay D Van Dyke
WILD CARD 8-1 9 Catemaco R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1 3-1 8 Exceed Speed Limit E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Tizlightning K Frey

* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/10 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

RACE #6 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:38 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 3 Earls Rock R A Vazquez
PLACE 5-1 6 Rip City E A Maldonado
SHOW 7-2 4 Gypsy King R Gonzalez
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Vantastic D Van Dyke
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Zoffarelli T Baze
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 5 Flashiest R Curatolo

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 CROWNING GOLD

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 2 Crowning Gold R A Vazquez
PLACE 4-1 7 Pacific States R Curatolo
SHOW 3-1 5 Vinny the Coin D Van Dyke
WILD CARD 7-2 6 Mobe Town A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 3 Napoleonic Code A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1 Sippin Whiskey D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

RACE #8 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 12-1 10 Neptunes Storm R Ramirez
PLACE 7-2 12 Gregorys Pride A Cedillo
SHOW 4-1 4 Creative Peak R A Vazquez
WILD CARD 12-1 9 Ill Stand Taller T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 11 Respect the Code K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 2 Awesome Rhythm R Curatolo

* EXACTA: 10-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/12 BOX, 4/9/12 BOX

RACE #9 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 2 Doc Adams E A Maldonado
PLACE 6-1 9 Back Ring Luck A Aguilar
SHOW 4-1 1 Direct Line A Cedillo
WILD CARD 15-1 8 Outright R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Big Buzz J Pyfer
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Holiday Arousal D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX

RACE #10 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 3 Cocktail Princess K Frey
PLACE 12-1 1 Smiling Amy J Matias
SHOW 4-1 5 Nyvan R Curatolo
WILD CARD 6-1 2 Carole Lombard R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Cherry Chaos E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Golden Temper D Van Dyke

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Keeneland Race Course opinions for Saturday, Nov. 5 (Breedsers’ Cup, Day 2)
November 5, 2022

NOTE: Due to the absurb starting times here on the best coast, no thoughts on Race 1-2 or Race 12. Heck, I might miss first couple of BC races after working late Friday night.

THIRD RACE: 7-6-4-13-3

FOURTH RACE: 1-5-8-4-9

In Charlie Appleby we trust.

FIFTH RACE: 1-2-3-5-10

It’s a shame Laurel River scratched. Slow Down Andy might just go from the No. 1 post and never slow down. Sneaky.

SIXTH RACE: 5-3-11-10-9

The Euros vs. Chad Brown. I like the Euros.

SEVENTH RACE: 4-5-9-6-6

American Therom comes out of the ultra key Pat O’Brien at Del Mar with 3 winners and a runner-ups so far. Why I was so bummed about Laurel River (comes out of same race).

EIGHTH RACE: 4-11-3-14-9

iN cHARLIE WE TRUST.

NINTH RACE: 8-1-4-6-2

10TH RACE: 7-11-4-2-12

Do I need to say it again? In Charlie we trust. However, I’ll be honest: I don’t like morning-linr favorite Rebel’s Romance. I know he is 4 for 4 on the turf but I question those fields in Germany.

11TH RACE: 1. No. 4 Flightline, 2. No. 1 Taiba, 3. No.2 Life Is Good, 4. No. 7 Olympiad. LONG SHOT: No. 5 Hot Rod Charlie.

Come on, did you really think you would see any horse’s name other than FLIGHTLINE in the top spot? Trainer John Sadler and crew are looking for a fitting end to a magical campaign. His Pacific Classic race was awesome. Bob Baffert is looking to prove TAIBA is the top 3-year-old this year and he has a shot. LIFE IS GOOD was in the Baffert barn before the suspension. HOT ROD CHARLIE is tough as nails.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for Saturday's Breeders' Cup races 11/5
By Dave Tuley

Welcome to our regularly scheduled “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” Saturday column, though it’s extra-special this week as our crew is looking at the 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland.

“Future Stars Friday” didn’t go too well for our crew overall, though I did have #4 Forte as my top pick in the BC Juvenile, paying $12.04 to Win as he upset favored #3 Cave Rock. With my 1-2-3-Longshot picks (I also listed third-place finisher National Treasure and fourth-place Blazing Sevens), my four colts also cashed the $27.30 Exacta, $45.14 Trifecta and $134.50 Superfecta.

But those relatively low payoffs (at least as far as the way I usually play these races) just had us making a small profit on the day.

So, let’s turn to Saturday as I’m joined again by DraftKings’ head oddsmaker John Avello Rampart’s Duane Colucci and my longtime handicapping friend John Lauro. Conspicuous by his absence in this column is Ed Sehon, but he’s on assignment in person at the Breeders’ Cup and he has his own “Mr. Ed” column this weekend at VSiN.com/horses, while his Saturday picks can also be found HERE.

Without further ado, here are my team’s top plays for the 9 BC championship races on Saturday.

Keeneland Race 3 — Breeders’ Cup Turf Filly and Mare Sprint (11:50 a.m. ET)

Dave Tuley likes #3 Chi Town Lady (20-1 morning line). “In a sprint, most people look for speed horses, but closers win these races all the time. That being said, #13 Echo Zulu is probably the most likely winner here if she gets the lead as we think she’s only 6-1 because of the outside post. But when looking for real value on the betting board, the play is Chi Town Lady at 20-1. She closed at 7 furlongs in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga for the win at 17-1 and this sets up the same way. 1. #3 Chi Town Lady (20-1), #13 Echo Zulu (6-1), 3. #4 Ce Ce (4-1), Longshot #7 Obligatory (8-1).”

Keeneland Race 4 — Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (12:29 p.m. ET)

John Avello likes, in no particular order: “#3 Emaraaty Ana (20-1). Euro-invader offers great value. Gelding is fresh, sitting on a big race. #4 Campanelle (8-1). From Ireland, filly is familiar with the track. Won here in April. Another value play. #11 Casa Creed (6-1). Pitch last when hung out. If closer to pace today, he’ll be tough down the lane.”

Duane Colucci likes #4 Campanelle (8-1 morning line). “The so-called ‘other Ward trainee’ gets the services of Frankie Dettori. This filly was impressive at Kentucky Downs after a solid run at Ascot. Has a victory over the course at the same distance and nice workouts. Can pick up the pieces if Golden Pal gives it up late. Bet 4 to Win and key 4 over 1,6,8,12 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

Dave Tuley likes #14 Artemus Citylimits (30-1 morning line). “This turf sprint has some speed horses, but I think this longshot has a great chance to get to the lead and steal it even with an outside post as there’s plenty of run until the turn. Trainer Michael Maker is the turfmaster and I don’t think he would be putting Artemus Citylimits in this ambitious spot if he didn’t think he could handle it. Catch me if you can. 1. #14 Artemus Citylimits (30-1), 2. #11 Casa Creed (6-1), 3. #8 Golden Pal (2-1), Longshot #4 Campanelle (8-1).”

Keeneland Race 5 — Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1:10 p.m. ET)

Duane Colucci likes #5 Gunite (7-2 morning line). “Rousing winner of the Perryville here on Oct. 22 wheels right back. This colt has won 4-of-5, including the Grade 2 Amsterdam. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione and trainer Steve Asmussen are hitting at 35% and have a $4.53 ROI at Keeneland. Bet 5 to Win and key 5 over 6,7,9 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

John Avello likes these three: “#5 Gunite (7-2). Very fast, has win over track, always gives his best. #9 Cyberknife (9-2). Distance fits, will be there in stretch. #3 Pipeline (8-1). Rider Prat a plus. Not to be confused with Flightline – who is one of a kind and my pick to win the Classic – but very consistent colt.”

John Lauro likes #7 Cody’s Wish (5-2 morning line). “Cody’s Wish had an incredible performance in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga, almost setting track record.”

Dave Tuley likes #2 Simplification (15-1 morning line). “Please allow me to digress a little bit here. In my 40 years following the races, I’ve always hated when I hear handicappers (usually on TV) say things like ‘I need to see a race’ when a horse is coming off a layoff or trying something different like a new track, new surface, new distance, etc. My belief is you miss longshots that way, plus once a horse wins at something new, everyone sees it and you’ll never get good odds again. So, I’ve often been too early on horses – though I still prefer that to being too late. So, Simplification was one of my Kentucky Derby future bets earlier this year. He obviously didn’t win that (though finishing a respectable 4th) and hasn’t lived up to his potential, but Saturday could be the day in the Dirt Mile. He won at this distance in a minor stakes race back in January and has been going longer since. This just might be his distance and should be sitting just off the pace and hopefully right there in the stretch. 1. #2 Simplification (15-1), 2. #7 Cody’s Wish (5-2), 3. #5 Gunite (7-2), Longshot #10 Senor Buscador (12-1).”

Keeneland_starting_gate

Keeneland Race 6 — Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (1:50 p.m. ET)

Dave Tuley likes #12 Moira (10-1 morning line). “Like most BC turf races, this is full of foreign invaders. Moira isn’t from overseas but is an invader nonetheless from over the border at Woodbine in Canada. And she picks up my favorite international jockey in Frankie Dettori. Moira knows how to find the winner’s circle (4-for-6 lifetime) and is an ultra-consistent closer who should be running fastest of all down the stretch at a fair price. 1. #12 Moira (10-1), 2. #11 In Italian (7-2), 3. #3 Nashwa (5-2), Longshot #9 Rougir (12-1).”

Keeneland Race 7 — Breeders’ Cup Sprint (2:30 p.m. ET)

Dave Tuley likes #11 Flash of Mischief (30-1 morning line). “I don’t always like to mention the favorites we’re trying to beat, but I will say that this is #9 Jackie’s Warrior’s race to lose. She is the most likely winner and should be the speed of the speed and 6 furlongs isn’t long enough for her to fade like we usually hope chalky faves do. But sometimes you bet a race in hopes that the standout isn’t on their game, so we’re looking for a price to come off the pace and we believe Flash of Mischief has as good a chance as any to pull the upset, and at much better odds than the other contenders, Even though running at Remington Park, this former router’s minor stakes win in September is the highest speed rating of any runner’s last race. 1. #11 Flash of Mischief (30-1), 2. #9 Jackie’s Warrior (4-5), 3. #2 Kimari (4-1), Longshot #5 Aloha West (12-1).”

Keeneland Races 7-11 – Late all-BC Pick 5 (2:30 p.m. ET)

Duane Colucci likes this Pick 5 (cost $90)

Race 7: 6,9

Race 8: 4,8,11,13,14

Race 9: 1,2,6

Race 10: 2,5,7

Race 11: 1,4

Keeneland Race 8 — Breeders’ Cup Mile (3:10 p.m. ET)

John Avello likes #6 Ivar (15-1 morning line) in the Mile. “Ivar is value play for in-the-money finish. He needs to be up close early. #8 Regal Glory (6-1) likes to win. Experience over track is a big plus. Brown-Jose Ortiz tough combo. British invader #14 Domestic Spending (8-1). He could take it all from outermost post for Brown and Prat.”

Dave Tuley likes #11 Annapolis (10-1 morning line). “I usually handicap the horses without even looking at the jockeys (since I’ve long gone with the belief that the jockey doesn’t carry the horse across the finish line), but when I landed on Annapolis with his stalking style fitting this race to a T, I was encouraged to see Irad Ortiz Jr. is his regular jockey and is hitting 32% on Todd Pletcher horses the past two months, though usually at shorter prices. Even so, Annapolis doesn’t need the lead and has as good of a chance here as anyone. I also want to mention not to overlook also-eligible #16 Gear Jockey (30-1) if he draws into the race. 1. #11 Annapolis (10-1), 2. #4 Modern Games (7-2), 3. #14 Domestic Spending (8-1), Longshot #12 King Cause (30-1).”

Keeneland-BC_statur

Keeneland Race 9 — Breeders’ Cup Distaff (3:55 p.m. ET)

Duane Colucci likes #2 Blue Stripe (20-1 morning line). “Going for a price here as trainer Marcelo Polanco has this 5-year-old mare in super shape. She has been dominating in SoCal, but this is a huge step up. The works are solid and Hector Berrios is very capable in the saddle. He and Polanco have a $9.70 ROI this year. Bet 2 to Win and Place, plus key 2 over 1,6,7 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

Dave Tuley likes #8 Society (6-1 morning line). “This is a relatively short 7-horse field for a BC race, but I still don’t think Nest should be a favorite as low as 9-5. This is much more wide-open than that and I give my nod to Society with a great chance to steal this on the front end off of her two straight wire-to-wire victories. She broke her maiden at Keeneland a year ago, so we assume she likes the track. Nest will be among those trying to catch her, but we think she can go the distance just like she has in 4-of-6 career races. 1. #8 Society (6-1), 2. #Malathaat (3-1), 3. Nest (9-5), Longshot #5 Awake at Midnight (30-1).”

Keeneland Race 10 — Breeders’ Cup Turf (4:40 p.m. ET)

Dave Tuley likes #10 Red Knight (20-1 morning line). “We know we’re trying to beat the foreign horses in the Turf, but that’s how we roll. Throw out Red Knight’s 8th-place finish in his last race and he fits here – actually, don’t dismiss it as he actually only lost by 1 1/2 lengths, which I consider a “winning effort.” I also had him at 12-1 at Kentucky Down in September and I’m guessing we’re only getting such a fair price here because of the misleading result last time out. The same goes for my longshot pick, #9 Gold Phoenix, who lost as a 6-5 favorite in his last race at Santa Anita but should also be a contender in the stretch at higher than his true odds. 1. #9 Red Knight (20-1), 2. #7 Nations Pride (7-2), 3. #5 Rebel’s Romance (3-1), Longshot #9 Gold Phoenix (20-1).”

Keeneland Race 11 — Breeders’ Cup Classic (5:40 p.m. ET)

John Avello and John Lauro both like #4 Flightline (3-5 morning line favorite). Avello calls him “one of a kind” and Lauro says “If they let Flightline run full throttle, he will crush them and set track record.”

Duane Colucci likes #1 Taiba (8-1). “Bob Baffert 3-year-old has improved each start this year and is working lights out. Draws the rail and has to climb the mountain to beat Flightline, but if anyone can do it, it’s Mister Baffert! Bet 1 to Win and key 1 over 2,4,6 in Exactas, Trifectas and reverse.”

Dave Tuley likes #5 Hot Rod Charlie (15-1 morning line). “Man, oh, man I really want to put Rich Strike on top at 20-1. I love when we’re getting a great price on a horse that has already shown he can beat his main competition like he did with his 80-1 upset in the Derby (though he’s obviously also taking on top older horses here like Flightline). Rich Strike has also been inconsistent, so I’ve landed on Hot Rod Charlie as it looks like he can be the controlling speed here with all the top contenders looking to come off the pace. Horses like this on the lead are dangerous. We also like that jockey Tyler Gaffalione got off the schneid with his first BC win on Friday. 1. #5 Hot Rod Charlie (15-1), 2. #4 Flightline (3-5), 3. #1 Taiba (8-1), Longshot #8 Rich Strike (20-1).”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mr. Ed's Breeders' Cup picks for Saturday
By Ed Sehon

“Future Stars Friday” is behind us and now we turn our attention to Saturday 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland, where your faithful handicapper is on-site enjoying the races from the media center and the stands. Hopefully I’ve picked up some helpful tidbits being so close to the action.

Keeneland Race 3 (11:50 a.m. ET/8:50 a.m. PT)

BC Filly and Mare Sprint

Win selection is #13 Echo Zulu (6-1 morning line) for winningest all-time trainer Steve Asmussen. I fell in love with this gal the day she broke her maiden in debut. Good horses overcome bad posts. She’s a very fast filly … Place choice is #11 Wicked Halo (10-1). Also for Assmusen, she’s won four in a row, including most recent at Keeneland … Show horse is #7 Obligatory (8-1). Nobody prepares them for big races better than Bill Mott … Longshot: Lots of morning trackside chatter about sole Japanese import #6 Chain of Love (20-1).

Keeneland Race 4 (12:29 p.m. ET/9:29 a.m. PT)

BC Turf Sprint

In order to win this race, they’ll need to beat #8 Golden Pal (2-1). Short on price, tall on talent. He’s my Win pick for sprint specialist Wesley Ward. Irad Ortiz Jr. returns to ride … Closer #11 Casa Creed (6-1) is Place selection. Turning back from pair of mile contests, he’ll be flying in stretch … #6 Highfield Princess (7-2) ships in for low-profile connections, but I’m betting she finishes in the money. Longshot: Irish-bred #1 Creative Force (10-1) gets inside trip.

Keeneland Race 5 (1:10 p.m. ET/10:10 a.m. PT)

BC Dirt Mile

Speedy #6 Laurel River (9-2) for rare Baffert-Irad combo looks like Winner. Improving colt has fired several bullet works … Classy #9 Cyberknife (9-2) gave top sophomores a run for their money. My Place pick fits here … Gotta love sentimental choice #7 Cody’s Wish (5-2) to Show … Longshot: #5 Gunite (7-2) capable of scoring an upset at higher than morning line odds in super-competitive race.

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Keeneland Race 6 (1:50 p.m. ET/10:50 a.m. PT)

BC Filly and Mare Turf

Very fast Chad Brown trainee #11 In Italian (7-2) is my Win selection. Joel Rosario has yet to be defeated aboard improving British-bred gal … Choice to Place is always competitive Irish invader Tuesday (8-1). Tip from reliable overseas tout … Show horse is #4 Above the Curve (9-2). The more she runs the faster she gets … Longshot: #9 Rougir (12-1). Prat back in saddle for Brown barn. Could surprise.

Keeneland Race 7 (2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT)

BC Sprint

Keeneland prior BC title-holder Jackie’s Warrior (4-5) just too good for me. When you can’t beat ‘em. pick ‘em to Win … If any other could triumph, it’s steadily improving #6 Elite Power (6-1) for Mott and Irad, my Place play … Ward and Jose Ortiz with #2 Kimari (4-1) looking for in-the-money finish off two recent victories … Longshot: #5 Aloha West (12-1) is a threat to repeat for Catman.

Keeneland Race 8 (3:10 p.m. ET/12:10 p.m. PT)

BC Mile

I, like several other media types, like invader #4 Modern Games (7-2) to Win extremely competitive event. Repeat of Woodbine race this summer would defeat this crew … Another import, #13 Kinross (9-2), is coming in with four-race win streak. Gelding is my Place play … Show goes to outermost starter #14 Domestic Spending (8-1). It’s never a good idea to overlook speedy Brown runner … Longshot: Brazilian-bred #6 Ivar (15-1). Javier Castellano picks up mount for Paulo Lobo. Respect upstart connections.

Keeneland Race 9 (3:55 p.m. ET/12:55 p.m. PT)

BC Distaff

Many handicappers expecting showdown between Todd Pletcher’s best – #1 Malathaat (3-1) and #6 Nest (9-5) – so I’ll go out on a limb by backing #4 Clairiere (4-1) to Win. She has kick to run two speedsters down in deep stretch … I’ll take Malathaat to Place, Nest to Show. Longshot: #3 Secret Oath (15-1) for the great Coach, D. Wayne Lukas.

Keeneland Race 10 (4:40 p.m. ET/1:40 p.m. PT)

BC Turf

Top Euro jockey Frankie Dettori had choice of riding either #7 Nations Pride (7-2) or #11 Mishriff (6-1). By post time, I think public will agree with Frankie and make #11 the favorite. I agree. Mishriff is my Win pick, #7 to Place … Longshot: #10 Red Knight (20-1) from Dave Tuley’s picks.

Keeneland Race 11 (5:40 p.m. ET/2:40 p.m. PT)

BC Classic

It’s not a matter of who will win, but by how many lengths. #4 Flightline (3-5) will Win … The key to making money here is uncovering who will finish second, third and fourth – and playing them underneath in exotic wagers … My other picks: #7 Olympiad (10-1) to Place; #6 Epicenter (5-1) to Show, and Longshot #1 Taiba (8-1) to round out superfecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - BC/Santa Anita - 11/5/22

November 5, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita/Keenland
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY – KEENELAND

RACE 3: BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT. Post: 11:50 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Goodnight Olive
Backups/savers: 13-Echo Zulu

Forecast: b>Goodnight Olive, listed as the morning line favorite at 3-1, has much in her favor and offers excellent wagering value at that price (if you can get it). The daughter of Ghostzapper finished a strong second in her debut back in the spring of 2021 and has been untouchable since, winning her next five races, each with complete authority and by daylight, most recently the Ballerina S.-G1 at Saratoga at this same seven furlong trip. Freshened for more than two months but with a solid and healthy work tab in the interim, she has the type of tactical speed that is ideal for this extended sprint distance plus a runaway win in her only start over the Keeneland main track and rising speed figures topped by the 102 Beyer number that was earned in her most recent outing. Echo Zulu, a winner of six of seven starts including last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies, is a reasonable candidate to toss in as a saver if you feel the need. She is drawn comfortably outside, looked terrific winning the Dogwood S.-G3 in her comeback in September at Churchill Downs, continues to impress in the morning, and is guaranteed a soft stalking trip from her outside draw.


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RACE 4: BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT. Post: 12:29 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Highfield Princess; 8-Golden Pal
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Golden Pal, a two-time Breeders’ Cup winner and the defending champion of this race, is the quickest in the field and will be tough to catch if breaks like he did in this race last year. The Wesley Ward-trained colt is a perfect four-for-four over the Keeneland turf course, and while his most recent two wins – in the Troy S.-G3 at Saratoga and the Woodford S.-G2 over this course and distance last month – haven’t been overpowering, we suspect the son of Uncle Mo will bring his best stuff when it is needed the most. However, while we’ll certainly include him in all of our exotics, our main punch will be reserved for the brilliant European sprinting mare Highfield Princess, victorious in her last three starts, all Group-1 events (in Ireland, England, and France), each with off-the-charts Timeform ratings. She may not be as quick leaving the gate as Golden Pal but once in motion she can be as fast as she needs to be. We envision the 5-year-old mare stalking ‘Pal to the head of the lane, taking dead aim, and then proving best late, and if you can get close to her morning line of 7/2, you have to take it.


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RACE 5: BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE. Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Cody’s Wish
Backups/savers: 5-Gunite; 3-Pipeline

Forecast: With the late scratching of Laurel River, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile takes on a different look, though the early fractions still should be quick enough to set things up for Cody’s Wish. The form suggests the son of Curlin is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter, but it’s entirely possible that at this stage of his career, the Bill Mott-trained 4-year-old is simply better now than he’s ever been and thus will be equally effective around two turns. His victory in the seven Forego S.-G1 at Saratoga was spectacular, as he was forced to rally wide against the grain to collar odds-on Jackie’s Warrior close home. A duplication of that effort today – which is eminently possible – wins the race. We’ll also include on our ticket as backups the two strongest pace types, Pipeline and Gunite. The former might be the controlling speed and could take this field a long away if not respected (especially with the abbreviated run from the top of the stretch to the short wire), while the latter has never been sharper and could run another cracker from a comfortable pace-stalking position in his first try over a distance of ground.


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RACE 6: BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF. Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Above the Curve; 3-Nashwa; 11-In Italian
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: As displayed in no uncertain terms yesterday, the Euros have a significant edge over the North American turf runners and for that reason we will give and Nashwa the edge over the top U.S. representative, In Italian, while using all three in our rolling exotic main ticket. Above the Curve and Nashwa are tough to separate – they finished noses apart when two-three in the Prix de l’Opera-G1 over heavy ground at Longchamp on Arc Day – and if both bring their “A” game they will be tough to beat. ‘Curve is a daughter of American Pharoah, who we suspect will appreciate firm ground, while Team Gosden’s Nashwa, a multiple Group-1 winner, employs ideal stalking tactics that will provide for a trouble-free journey. In Italian has won her last two with complete authority, and if she is handed the front end without pressure she should be difficult to get by. It will be surprising if the winner isn’t one of these three, with our main punch going to Above the Curve.


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RACE 7: BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT. Post: 2:30 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Jackie’s Warrior
Backups/savers: 6-Elite Power

Forecast: Jackie’s Warrior was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar in last year’s renewal of the BC Sprint-G1 and failed again at a very short price when worn down in the Forego S.-G1 by Cody’s Choice last time out, so he may be hard to trust, even though he’s clearly the controlling speed and will benefit greatly by Jack Christopher’s defection. Successful in 12 of 17 career starts, the son of Maclean’s Music has won four of five career outings at this traditional sprint distance of six furlongs, and given the projected pace flow the Steve Asmussen-trained colt shouldn’t miss this silver platter-styled opportunity. As a backup or an exacta partner with heavy favorite, you should consider Elite Power on your ticket. Vastly improved since early June, the son of Curlin has won his last four with rising speed figures and was never better winning the Vosburgh S.-G2 at Aqueduct in his most recent appearance last month. He’s the one Jackie’s Warrior must worry about close home.


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RACE 8: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Pogo; 4-Modern Games; 13-Kinross
Backups/Savers: 10-Order of Australia; 11-Annapolis; 6-Ivar

Forecast: This may be the most challenging race in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. We’ve identified six legitimate possibilities, so best advice is to include as many in your rolling exotic play as your budget allows. Pogo is listed at 20-1 on the morning line but is better than that, especially if he can secure his preferred trip as the controlling speed. From the rail, he’s certain to be given that opportunity, and if he can sneak clear during the early stages without being pressured, the Irish-bred horse may get brave and take this field a long way. Modern Games and Kinross are obviously good enough to win, though ‘Games failed to capitalize on a perfect trip when finishing second on British Champions Day three weeks ago and may be over the top (though his trainer doesn’t think so). Kinross is stuck farther out than we’d prefer; with a better draw we’d be strongly in his corner. As for the backups, Order of Australia was a shocking winner of this race two years ago over this same course and distance and doesn’t look any worse on form then he did then, so we’ll use him. Annapolis is genuine and consistent but will have to step forward, while Ivar should run on late and could easily get at least a piece of it.


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RACE 9: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Malaathat; 6-Nest; 8-Society
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Malathaat has never trained or run better than in the present and is perfect in three starts over the Keeneland main track. She’ll enjoy a golden trip from her rail post, and while she probably will need a career top performance to win, the daughter of Curlin may be up to the task. Her stable mate, Nest, has won her last three races by a combined 26 lengths, and is the deserving 9/5 morning line favorite. She is as good as they come. Society is lone speed and will have a reasonable chance to wire the field if not policed. She’s won six of seven career starts and lost all chance at the start in the one race she didn’t win. The daughter of Gun Runner a little slower on speed figures than the Pletcher pair, but she’s not even close to reaching her ceiling. You have to include her somewhere.


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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Rebel’s Romance
Backups/savers: 2-War Like Goddess; 7-Nations Pride

Forecast: Rebel’s Romance began his career running exclusively on dirt or all-weather surfaces in England and Dubai but since being switched to grass, the Dubawi gelding has won all four of his starts, each a group stakes race, most recently back-to-back Group-1’s in Germany. On pure form he’s every bit as good as last year’s BC Turf winner Yibir, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. The other Godolphin entrant from the Appleby yard is the 3-year-old Nations Pride, who returned home to England after winning back-to-back graded stakes in New York during the summer and was supposed to be done for the year. However, he’s clearly maintained his edge, so he’s back with a real chance. This will be his first try against older competition, so he’ll need to step forward, but could easily be capable of doing so. War Like Goddess is the best of the American contingent but as good as she’s always been (nine wins in 12 starts), the daughter of English Channel hasn’t ever beaten anything as good as Rebel’s Romance. She’ll get her chance today.


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RACE 11: Post: 5:40 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Flightline
Backups/savers: 1-Taiba

Forecast: Flightline was out of this world winning the Pacific Classic-G1 by almost 20 lengths and has looked every bit as good, if not better, in his breezes since. Drawn outside the likely pacesetter Life Is Good, the son of Tapit can use that colt as a target and then go on by when ready. If you’re trying to find another horse for exacta purposes, you should zero in on Taiba, who will be rolling late and should be more than capable of picking up the pieces.


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SATURDAY – SANTA ANITA

RACE 1: Post: 12:030 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Synnin and Winnin
Backups/savers: 2-Curly Esa

Forecast: Synnin and Winnin has been sparingly raced with big gaps in between outings, so it’s not surprising that he shows up in a $50,000 maiden claimer for the first time after three runs facing straight maiden company. This is a significant class drop for the Brian Koriner-trained gelding after finishing a moderate fourth over the local lawn last month. With an extra half furlong to work with today, the son of Mr. Big should be capable of producing a winning late kick. As a backup, we’ll also include Curly Esa on a ticket or two. As a nine race maiden, he's certainly not one to trust, but his figures are competitive, he shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and has run fairly well over this course and distance in the past.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Famous Star
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Famous Star, a beaten favorite in two of last three starts, drops into the $50,000 ranks today and has never had an easier spot to break his maiden. While certainly not trustworthy and not really offering great value at 9/5 on the morning line, the John Sadler-trained colt continues to work well, shows better than par speed figures for the level, and should be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. In a race that might be best left alone, he can be used as a rolling exotic single by reason of default.


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RACE 3: Post: 1:52 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Mister Beams
Backups/savers: 3-Bizzy Gal

Forecast: Mister Beams won at first asking vs. maiden claimers in clever style at Gulfstream Park in early September, was purchased privately after the race, and today shows up in a starter optional claimer for trainer Doug O’Neill while switching from synthetic to grass. He sports a solid, healthy work tab since arriving in California and should be primed and ready to step forward and win again. Bizzy Gal, a filly tackling the boys, seeks her third straight win for trainer Peter Miller and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, though we wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Beams ends up as the chalk. She won her most recent race on dirt from off the pace, and similar late-running tactics are likely to be employed again. However, the quick turnaround (eight days) is a bit problematic. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics, with the main punch going to Mister Beams.



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RACE 4: Post: 2:22 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Hialeah Hottie
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Hialeah Hottie finished second in a maiden $40,000 sprint for juvenile fillies here last month while more than five lengths clear of the rest and today returns as the 4/5 favorite in a maiden $32,000 affair with a considerable edge in the speed figure department. Clearly, her connections doesn’t care if they lose her (and we suspect they will), so this may not be a short price worth taking in a race that probably is best avoided. She’s a likely winner in an empty race, but there is little to no wagering value to be found, so tread lightly.


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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Liberty Forever; 8-Exceed Speed Limit
Backups/savers:

Forecast: Liberty Forever just won a similar state-bred first level allowance affair two-turning on grass but is eligible for the same condition because today he’s sprinting on dirt. The good news for the son of Dixie Chatter is that he’s probably just as effective on the main track and around one turn, so there’s no reason to think this versatile Peter Miller-trained sophomore can’t come right back and win again. With regular pilot Juan Hernandez away at Keeneland today with more important things to do, hot-riding Ramon Vasquez (32% with this barn) gladly picks up the mount. Exceed Speed Limit, himself a turf sprint winner last time out at this level and eligible to return in the same type of race on dirt, has won five of 15 career starts while employing an effective late-running style. He’s a two-time winner at this abbreviated sprint distance and should be heard from late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gypsy King
Backups/savers: 6-Rip City

Forecast: Gypsy King finished a close third in a recent downhill turf dash and today stretches out to a mile, a distance he should be able to handle (he finished fifth in a Kentucky Downs stakes in his only prior route try two years ago). The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding projects to be on the lead or very close to it, and with rising speed figures coupled with a favorable pace flow the son of Summer Front looks fairly solid at 7/2 on the morning line. Rip City shows several races in his chart that could win this race, but this will be his first start since being claimed by Steve Knapp for $80,000 out of a ninth place finish in the same race our top pick exits. On the chance that he returns to top form for his new connections, we’ll use the veteran City Zip gelding as a backup while saving the main punch for Gypsy King.


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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Vinny the Code; 2-Crowning Gold
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Vinny the Code displayed good speed in his debut in a high priced maiden claiming sprint for juveniles at Del Mar, leading the way into the lane before weakening late to wind up fourth (beaten more than five lengths) while earning a respectable speed figure for a first time starter. Now, will he step forward or fall back? The Tim Yakteen barn has solid stats with second time starters, so we’re expecting the son of Accelerate to at least run as well if not better in this moderate event. A healthy, steady series of workouts during the past several weeks is encouraging, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s worth a solid gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Crowning Gold has similar numbers but already has had four chances, so we suspect Vinny the Code has more room for improvement and therefore rates top billing. But ‘Gold has produced a forward move in each race, so if he can step forward again, he’ll be a legitimate threat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Creative Peak
Backups/savers: 12-Gregory’s Pride; 11-Respect the Code

Forecast: This is a contentious turf sprint for first level allowance older horses that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ve pinpointed three major players but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Creative Peak may have found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter. His win over five furlongs from off the pace in his first race on grass was impressive against state-bred foes, and if repeated, should make him a major player right back in open company, especially with an extra furlong to work with. Ramon Vasquez stays aboard, knows him well, and will this Vladimir Cerin-trained colt rolling late. The other three contenders will have to overcome extreme outside draws. Gregory’s Pride, consistently dangerous in turf sprints but showing only one win in 12 starts along with nine seconds and thirds, always seems to be day late and a dollar short but with good racing luck and some help up front should make his presence felt in the final furlong. Respect the Code, a solid runner-up at this level in a downhill turf dash, has gradually rising speed figures but we’re concerned about what type of trip he can secure from the 11-hole.


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RACE 9: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Holiday Arousal
Backups/savers: 2-Doc Adams; 9-Back Ring Luck

Forecast: Based on the raw form this $25,000 claiming sprint has two “must use” contenders, but both have unhealthy activity patterns, so it may be wise to look elsewhere. Doc Adams was fairly solid winning a first-level allowance state bred main track miler in late August at Del Mar and today shows up in a straight $25,000 claimer, which may realistically be where he belongs based on speed figures and the fact that he was a voided claim for $25,000 last spring. On the other hand, the Vronsky gelding missed the entire month of September and worked only twice last month. Hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but from a low profile outfit we’re not terribly optimistic. Back Ring Luck earned a big figure in an off-the-turf nine furlong affair for this price in early September and was haltered by trainer Steve Knapp, who then kept him in the barn for almost two months before bringing him back at the same level, not a normal pattern for this outfit and certainly not one that that inspires confidence. The gelding’s record over the Santa Anita main track (unplaced in five starts) is another red flag. On the other hand, Knapp’s other entrant – the first-off-the-$16,000-claim Holiday Arousal – seems the most trustworthy of the group, as the lightly-raced gelding, who began his career cheap up north (M8,000) has won his last three starts with rising speed figures and is being jumped in class following his most recent win for $16,000. He might be the one to hook your wagon to.


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RACE 10: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cocktail Princess ; 8-Moorea Time
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Cocktail Princess always is suspect under pressure close home but may have found a field she can open up on and then hang on. The daughter of Stay Thirsty, second while more than three lengths clear of the rest over this course and distance last time out, figures as the controlling speed in a field in which the other experienced runners aren’t much and the first-time starters not impressive. We’ll put her on top but also toss in the unexposed Moorea Time, a non-threatening sixth in a productive race in her debut over a mile on grass at Del Mar in August and today shortening in trip, retaining Abel Cedillo, and very likely the most dangerous of the closing types.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 5, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 14-race card set to go this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The races are a challenge but could offer a solid return. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

4-Weslynn Quest (9/2)-This mare is 0-17 at the Big M and that isn't usually by coincidence. But will use in the 2nd race for her new barn and the last start was an improvement. Has been facing much better so will look for the upswing to continue at a square price.
6-Southwind Tyrion (5/2)-Svanstedt pupil has missed a lot of time over the past 2 years. Seemed to be rounding back into sharp form but hasn't raced since 9-10. Rolled the back-half at PcD in 55.2 during a qualifier on 10-19 and will use off that tune-up.
8-Yanks Dugout (5-1)-Qualifier in the slop at Nfld on 10-26 was good and had been on the bench since 9-18. Ron Burke usually sends them out ready and this 5-year-old has shown 151-152 speed here and has a fine record at M1 (9-3-4-0).

Race 11

3-Crunch Time A (3-1)-Aussie bred makes its Big M debut and comes off a sharp qualifier in 153.2 with a 55.3 back-half. Looks worthy of a swing and it will be 1st time Lasix.
4-Mr DS Rock (5-1)-David Miller takes a seat and this Travis Alexander entry may have dropped enough to wake-up. Did post a 149.2 mark here last year and has 2 wins in 7 starts on this oval.
5-Codys Knapsack (8-1)-Gingras sticks with Burke and this 3-year-old has 2 wins in 3 M1 races. Has the speed to beat this crew but will need to mind matters.

Race 12

1-Captain Batboy (5-1)-Was facing some tough customers at Mohawk and should be tighter after a needed start on 10-27. Did beat the morning line choice (4) at the end of July and usual pilot Tim Tetrick returns tonight.
4-Goldin Greatness (8/5)-The Dunn-Ryder combo along with facing easier gets this 2-year-old 8/5 favoritism. Can close in a hurry, has never missed the board here and the short field should help chances.
5-Loubet (9/5)- It's tough to split these 2-year-olds and this Sweet Lou colt has been showing nice improvement in recent starts. Came the back-half in 55.2 on 10-27 in a 2-year-old non betting race so should be okay on this oval. Gingras could be out and rolling looking to make every call a winning one.

Race 13

7-Bounty Hunter (5/2)-Has been facing tough competition all year and should relish the company. Comes in off a needed races at Philly and has hit the board in both M1 starts. Tonight, could be the time for an East Rutherford picture and Andrew McCarthy taking the lines should help the cause.

0.50 Late Pick 4

4,6,8/3,4,5/1,4,5/7
Total Bet=$13.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Miranden I worry that he's going to take a bit of heat on the fence, but the inside has seemed to be a pretty good place to be in the stretch here lately on the main track. He might shake off the early challenge and find enough late.
#3 Euro Tracking He's a pretty one-paced runner, but that might serve him well here if a couple other forward players soften up the top choice in the early stages. Wouldn't be a surprise on top, and he makes a lot of sense underneath, too.
#7 Joe Bill Think he might find a pretty good trip while letting a couple slightly quicker players battle early, but he should be in a nice spying spot while that unfolds. He doesn't have a ton of excuses after 11 starts, but he fits here.
Race Summary Post Breeders' Cup action if you're looking -- there have been a lot of fun races here over the last few weeks. Miranden might be able to take advantage of this inside draw despite a couple other potential speed types being lined up in here.

Remington Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Street Tapper She's in really reliable form right now, including a couple nice efforts over the local footing. Think she finds a tactical enough trip again tonight and gets home.
#5 Silverscape She has been a decent fit at this level so far, and she owns some dangerous pace, but I worry that she doesn't finish her races with a ton of energy and could be vulnerable late again here.
#2 Optimistic Cowgirl The extra sixteenth might help her cause tonight, and she was good enough to handle the top choice when they met back in September. Wouldn't be a shock late.
Race Summary Street Tapper should be able to find a decent spot not too far off the splits, and I like the way she has fit with the locals since landing here a couple races back.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#11 Papa Bill Plenty of respect for the pace of the second choice, but I'm not sure that guy gets away in here, and I like that this one has some upside after finishing well in the debut run.
#8 Chuy Garza Y. G. Wouldn't be a total shock if he were to run these off their feet, but he has given away ground late in every career start, so he's a bit tough to trust at this point.
#3 Riversport Debuter goes in a race that doesn't have a ton of serious proven form so far, so I don't think he's going to need to run a huge race to have a chance to land a piece of this.
Race Summary Papa Bill and Chuy Garza Y. G. look tough in here, but I like the former's ability to settle and finish a bit from off the pace in case some of the firsters show a bit of speed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 DRAW THE FOUL (9-5) Earned top speed figure in narrow defeat, versatility comes in handy in here.
#6 AYRTON SENNA (6-1) Slowed by traffic into the turn and stretch, found best stride too late.
#2 ARMOUR PLATE (2-1) More question marks than answers after six seconds in six starts last year.
Race Summary DRAW THE FOUL pressed the 4-to-5 favorite through the turn, then re-rallied into a photo finish after he lost a couple lengths to the winner. He’s versatile enough to sit a good stalking trip at a suitable 6F distance. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #2
Picks Notes
#7 DARK INTENT (12-1) Price is right in field of missed opportunities, must stay in contact early.
#2 ROSEBUD RYDE (5-2) Finished in money in seven straight, six at 5-2 odds or less.
#3 FUNKY GREY (2-1) Steady form, has done the least wrong, raced evenly in fast race.
Race Summary DARK INTENT cuts back to a sprint for the first time in 18 months, but if she can overcome her slow-starting habit, she could rally for an upset against several rivals who’ve had their share of winning chances. Play a 7/2,3/ALL trifecta.

Golden Gate - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 DALLAS ALICE (4-1) Makes first start for hot barn, dam won in her second start.
#5 MATCHLESS (5-2) ‘Took command’ before 7-2 firster arrived at this level two back.
#3 SASSY TINKERBELL (6-1) Took serious money, lost all chance at the break.
Race Summary DALLAS ALICE debuts off a pair of recent 5F gate workouts for a barn that is 5-for-13 the last 30 days with a positive return on investment. Her dam was 2-for-6, an $80k earner and a first-out MSW runner-up. Play a 3-4-5 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Breeders' Cup All Turf Pick 4
PURCHASE
Breeders' Cup All Turf Pick 4 - Race 1

Leg 1 of the All Turf Pick 4


Stakes • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 121 • Purse: $1,000,000 • Post: 12:29
BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT KEE - R4 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. ALL FILLIES AND MARES ALLOWED 3 LBS.; $15,000 TO PRE-ENTER, $15,000 TO ENTER, WITH GUARANTEED$1 MILLION PURSE INCLUDING TRAVEL AWARDS OF WHICH 52% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 17% TO SECOND, 9% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH, 2% TO SIXTH, 1% TO SEVENTH, 1% TO EIGHTH, 1% TO NINTH, 1% TO TENTH; PLUS TRAVEL AWARDS TO STARTERS NOT BASED IN KENTUCKY. THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF STARTERS IS FOURTEEN WITH FOUR ALSO ELIGIBLES. IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CREATIVE FORCE (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GOLDEN PAL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (FR): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NAVAL CROWN (GB): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. EMARAA TY ANA (GB): Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1
CREATIVE FORCE (IRE)
10/1

5/1
8
GOLDEN PAL
2/1

6/1
6
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (FR)
7/2

7/1
9
NAVAL CROWN (GB)
30/1

9/1
3
EMARAATY ANA (GB)
20/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
14
ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS
14

30/1
Front-runner
109

109

114.4

103.6

81.1
8
GOLDEN PAL
8

2/1
Front-runner
111

112

112.8

116.4

109.4
10
CARAVEL
10

20/1
Front-runner
105

105

99.2

95.6

72.1
3
EMARAATY ANA (GB)
3

20/1
Front-runner
122

118

89.1

106.2

95.2
7
ARREST ME RED
7

15/1
Stalker
108

104

103.6

101.0

81.5
4
CAMPANELLE (IRE)
4

8/1
Stalker
114

118

95.7

103.0

93.0
12
BRAN (FR)
12

15/1
Stalker
107

101

92.2

100.6

76.1
15
DANCING BUCK
15

15/1
Stalker
109

105

91.8

103.2

76.2
16
OCEANIC
16

30/1
Stalker
109

112

88.0

102.0

74.5
11
CASA CREED
11

6/1
Trailer
112

111

77.9

102.0

89.5
13
CAZADERO
13

20/1
Trailer
105

106

76.9

101.9

76.9
5
GO BEARS GO (IRE)
5

30/1
Trailer
110

112

64.5

93.9

76.4








Unknown Running Style: CREATIVE FORCE (IRE) (10/1) [Jockey: Buick William T - Trainer: Appleby Charles], FLOTUS (IRE) (30/1) [Jockey: Doyle Hollie - Trainer: Crisford Simon], HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (FR) (7/2) [Jockey: Hart Jason - Trainer: Quinn John], N