Saturday 11/12/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Western Kentucky - 13

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: NC State Wolfpack - 18 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from The Last Call

Saturday's Early Free Play: (151) Nebraska + 30 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 17 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	CBB – Seton Hall -16.5
2.	Gameday Network	CBB – James Madison -2.5
3.	Sports Action 365	CBB – St. Bonaventure -7.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	CBB – LSU over 140.5
5.	VegasSI.com	CBB – Evansville +24.5

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
6.	Sam Casey	NBA – Raptors +1.5
7.	Henry Brown Sports	NBA – Celtics -9.5
8.	Winning Big Sports	NBA – Clippers over 213.5
9.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Mavericks -5
10.	Platinum Info Club	NBA – Hornets +10.5

k	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
11.	William E. Stockton	CFB – Stanford +24
12.	Vincent Pioli	CFB – Arkansas over 50
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	CFB – Temple +20
14.	SCORE	CFB – Purdue +6.5
15.	Tony Campone	CFB – Old Dominion +7

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Hawks +3.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NBA – Wizards +4
18.	VIP Action	NBA – Clippers over 213.5
19.	South Beach Sports	NBA – Celtics -9.5
20.	LV Sports Commission	NBA – Mavericks -5

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
21.	NY Players Club	CBB – Wisc Green Bay +17.5
22.	Fred Callahan	CBB – Ohio -9.5
23.	LV Private CEO Club	CBB – Boise St -1
24.	Michigan Sports	CBB – Providence -14
25.	National Consensus Report	CBB – Tulsa -12.5

[ConleyPicks]

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Vanderbilt vs Kentucky under 47 -110

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Vanderbilt/Kentucky under 47 -110

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Purdue+7

[ConleyPicks]

Marc Lawrence

Free Play - Navy+17 (Game 134).


Edges - Midshipmen: 11-1 ATS when coming off a road loss … Fighting Irish: 6-15 ATS in this series when Navy is coming off a win; and 5-13 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a SU underdog win … With an Irish letdown in order after upending previously unbeaten Clemson, we recommend a 1* play on Navy. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Thirty Eight Go Go at Laurel | Saturday, Nov 12

November 10, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Laurel Park hosts its Harvest Stakes Festival this Saturday with a special first post of 11:45 am ET. The 10-race program includes 2-year-olds in the Smart Halo and James F. Lewis III Stakes, both for a purse of $100,000. Older fillies and mares anchor the consecutive stakes offerings in Race 9 with the $100,000 Thirty Eight Go Go. The 1-1/16 miles dirt test is named after the star local mare who won stakes races in 1987, 1988, 1989 and 1990.

Field Depth:
The field of 8 includes a trio of existing stakes winners, including MALIBU BEAUTY, BREVIARY and HYBRID ECLIPSE. The latter is Grade 2-placed, while the lineup also includes Grade 3-placed BEGUINE. Kentucky (BERATE) and New York (BABY MAN) raiders step up from the allowance ranks and offer a strong supporting cast. Overall, HYBRID ECLIPSE has kept the strongest company lines in stakes company.

Pace:
Rail speed MALIBU BEAUTY should be joined up front by the likes of BEGUINE and BABY MAN with CHAMPAGNE TOAST, CLICK TO CONFIRM and HYBRID ECLIPSE in the pressing roles. This looks to be a solid to fast pace that could give a closer a chance to shine late.

Our Eyes:
Posts 1-3 account for 50% of the 1-1/16 miles dirt wins at Laurel over the past 5 years, pertinent with such a short run to the first turn over the 9-furlong oval. MALIBU BEAUTY from the rail was runner-up last out in the Maryland Million Distaff, but faces tougher foes in open company Saturday. She's best when loose on the lead (and perhaps at Delaware Park), and that's not likely against this group. Late-running BREVIARY will appreciate the move back to a route distance, but is suspect on class overall. BERATE for trainer Shug McGaughey is the well-drawn closer to watch out of the advantaged, inside posts. She's never run at Laurel, so note sire Blame gets 14% winners locally the past 5 years, a respectable number.

The remaining 5-pack all features some semblance of early speed. They include locals CHAMPAGNE TOAST, CLICK TO CONFIRM and HYBRID ECLIPSE. It was CLICK TO CONFIRM best in a head-to-head with CHAMPAGNE TOAST over this same trip in an April allowance. Both are in similar current form, but would be upsetters in this spot. HYBRID ECLIPSE rates the best chance in this group as she returns to a Laurel main track in which she's 3-4 lifetime and a nose away from perfection. She was an unthreatening third of 5 in the Grade 2 Beldame behind Nest last time in New York, and give her a mulligan for a bullring disappointment at the Timonium State Fair. She might be slightly better at a 1-turn mile than this trip, and post 8 will be a real challenge into the clubhouse turn.

BEGUINE and BABY MAN are interesting returnees to the Maryland scene. BEGUINE set the pace and folded in this year's Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico. Just the second offspring of Gun Runner to compete at Laurel, she will be matched up with Laurel's top pilot at this tricky-to-ride distance, Jevian Toledo. She showed her quality at Oaklawn this spring when a neck runner-up in the Grade 3 Fantasy. BABY MAN appears to be a need-the-lead type and will have to hustle from the 7-hole. She was second in a Laurel allowance in June and brings a two-race win streak from Monmouth and Aqueduct. Her trainer Rudy Rodriguez boasts a 12: 4-2-1 record with his Laurel shippers at this distance over the past 5 years.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
HYBRID ECLIPSE, despite a bad post, gets the call here based on the nearly perfect Laurel record in 4 starts, but there's no absolute stand-out in this category.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
BREVIARY can pass some tired horses for a share over a track and distance in which she's had some success.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win BERATE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Aqueduct, Del Mar, and Churchill Downs for November 12, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

It’s time for another great Saturday of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Aqueduct for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Churchill Downs and Del Mar for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Aqueduct:

Aqueduct November 12, 2022

Race 6: Maiden Claiming

#7 Big Bean Christine has been close at a similar level in her last two starts. She should be tough in this spot today. #8 New York Supreme returns off of a layoff today after running second at this level last time out. If she is ready to run off of the break she should be tough to beat.

Race 7: Starter Allowance
freestar

#2 Amatteroftime should be tough at this level after dominating allowance runners last time out at Delaware Park. #3 Outlier was a nose away from winning at the high claiming level last time out at Keeneland. This level seems to be a pretty similar to that race.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming

#6 Unbridled Bomber goes for two straight victories after dominating in a similar race last time out over this track. He should like this longer distance. #5 Rough Sea gets class relief in this spot after running third against stakes runners last time out.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming

#1 Fuligni gets back to the dirt for this race, while also dropping down in class, which should help her chances today. #5 Rent Control will try the dirt today after some poor efforts over the turf. She will also drop down in class for this race.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 6,7,8,9 / 2,3,4,7 / 6 / 1,4,5,7 – $32

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, November 12
Posted on November 11, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 1: LOOMS BOLDLY (#5)

A pair of second time starters figure to take most of the money in here. Lifetime of Chance (#6) faced a pretty good field when he made his debut here just over two weeks ago. Breaking from the rail, he settled in to a good stalking position early and stayed on willingly while no match for the top two finishers. That was a fast race for the level, and he was beaten by a couple of rivals who appear to have NY-bred stakes potential. Linda Rice is 18 for 57 (32%, $2.83 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. He’s obviously dangerous if he merely repeats that debut performance, but I think he could face a real challenge from the second time starter drawn to his inside. Looms Boldly (#5) didn’t take much money on debut despite possessing a good dirt sprint pedigree. By well-rounded sire Goldencents, he’s a half-brother to stakes winner Critical Value and multiple dirt sprint winner Steam Engine. He noticeably stumbled out of the starting gate first time out, but recovered to display excellent early speed, opening up at mid-stretch before getting reeled in by the closing winner. He arguably ran the best race that day, which is reflected in his 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure, where he got a big pace upgrade. Brad Cox is 11 for 35 (31%, $2.21 ROI) with maiden second time starters in NYRA dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I would also use him with first time starter Bustino Santino (#2), who is by 20% juvenile debut sire Bustin Stones and a full-brother to the solid allowance performer Bustin Timberlake.

RACE 2: HEALING (#3)

I suppose Bold Victory (#5) merits some consideration if he runs here, but he’d be coming back on just 4 days’ rest after a poor effort at Parx on Tuesday. His prior form makes him a contender, but the two-month gap in his form prior to that last race is a bit of a concern. He’s also a bit of a plodder who sometimes leaves himself with too much ground to make up, and there isn’t much pace in this field. The two horses who figure to be forward early are It’s Mandatory (#1) andPioneer Spirit (#2). They both come in with solid form, though the former has primarily raced at Finger Lakes in recent starts. Yet the real change in It’s Mandatory’s form seems to have stemmed from a change in tactics, as he’s been ridden much more aggressively ever since coming into the Chris Englehart barn. This is a class test for him, but he feels like one who will get the distance. The same goes for Pioneer Spirit, who is moving up slightly after beating a $20k claiming field last month. He’s generally run well when spotted realistically by this barn, and figures to work out a good trip. I’m going in a different direction with Healing (#3), who I’m hoping will be a better price. It might appear that this horse has run poorly in his three starts since getting claimed by Mitch Friedman, since he’s been off the board each time. Yet his trips tell a slightly different story. He actually stayed on well in that $50k claimer in September when facing a talented group of runners. He only finished a length behind War Stopper, who came back to win with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Then two back, nothing went right, as he got away to a tangled start and then spent too much time racing on a disadvantageous rail path. His last effort wasn’t very good, but that was another much tougher spot, and he did finish ahead of Pioneer Spirit. Like that rival, he will appreciate stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles and getting some class relief.

RACE 3: STAGE LEFT (#6)

This optional claimer is extremely competitive, as you can make a case for every single betting interesting in the field. Amundson (#4) is arguably the horse to beat after holding on to win a $40k claimer last time. He’s now won two of his last three starts and appears to have recaptured some of the form that we saw out of him as a younger horse. However, now he’s been claimed by Linda Rice, who is immediately moving him up in class into a tougher spot. The major hurdle for him is the amount of speed in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and it’s hard to envision any other scenario with at least 3 runners who want to be on the early lead. The quickest of those may be Pirate Rick (#1A), who is part of a coupled entry. He’s drawn well in the outside post, and comes off a huge performance off the layoff last time at Laurel. He carved out legitimate fractions that day and battled back gamely when challenged by the winner in the stretch. He’s wheeling back on short rest, as is customary for Lynn Cash’s trainees, but will be awfully tough if he’s able to repeat that last performance. Among those who could benefit from a contested pace is Nova Rags (#3), but I haven’t seen him show much improvement in two starts so far as a 4-year-old. I would rather go with another horse who should be sitting just off the pace. Stage Left (#6) hasn’t run back to that impressive victory at the N1X level three back in two subsequent starts. However, he did have a legitimate excuse last time. The rail was not the place to be on Sep. 30, and he was glued to the inside path for his entire trip, cutting the corner when making his move at the top of the stretch. He briefly challenged the leader before understandably flattening out late. He’s better than that result indicates, and can rebound here if the pace heats up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2022 Bet On Sunshine Stakes Cheatsheat
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
November 11, 2022

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires.com)

1. KAVOD (10-1) – Stakes veteran hit a peak with a strong N2X allowance score here in September; although his 16-4-2-0 career mark suggests he’s not a consistently reliable wagering proposition, keep in mind most of those losses occurred at higher levels and at distances beyond what he’s capable of; has posted several fast half-mile works since his last start and, as a three-year-old, remains with some upside as long as he’s kept sprinting.

2. TOP GUNNER (10-1) – Although he missed by only a half-length in the Phoenix (G2), that was not one of the better renewals of the race in recent years, and the form of it was not franked in the Breeders’ Cup; appears as if he peaked this season last spring, when he eked out an allowance win at Oaklawn and followed up in a restricted stake over this track and distance; find others more attractive.

3. SURVEILLANCE (20-1) – Hard knocker has won or placed in eight of nine starts this term, the only exception being a strong fourth in the Commonwealth (G3) in April; gutsy try last time when showing rare early foot, and just wound up missing by a head to O Besos, a respectable fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last week; main knocks are that he’s winless since March and is 0-for-7 over the Churchill strip.

4. BANGO (3-1) – Has won eight of 15 over this track and, when he does fire, tends to pay a premium; form has been a bit uneven this season and he was fourth in this event last year when perhaps a bit over the top, but he’s run so many good ones over the strip in the past that he’s hard to leave out of the equation at any price; near-bullet breeze earlier this month suggests he’s coming in good.

5. LONG RANGE TODDY (12-1) – Enters off back-to-back bullet works and a near-miss in the aforementioned Phoenix, which wasn’t a strong race this year; the obvious knock is the win-shy nature of this former class runner; you have to go all the way back to March 2019 to find him in the winner’s circle, following a division of the Rebel (G2) in which he upset future older male champion Improbable; that’s 25 losses in a row; seems best used underneath in vertical exotic plans, if it all.

6. TORONTOTORO (20-1) – Wasn’t beaten by much against N3X foes in his only other try here, but this all-or-nothing type looks several cuts below from a class perspective; finished midpack in his only recent stakes try at Colonial, and has largely competitive in softer allowance spots at Mountaineer and Indianapolis.

7. MUCHO (6-1) – Seemingly rounding back into better form after missing six months of action this year; recent drills have been fairly swift, so he could be sitting on a good one, and note he missed by a head in this event last season as the favorite; presumably will offer a better price this time, and addition of Saez adds to his appeal as a serious stalk-and-pounce candidate.

8. WILLISTON WAY (20-1) – One of the more capable, higher-end sprinters up at Mountaineer and Thistledown, but this represents a not-insignificant hike in class; only prior try over this track was decent, a half-length loss to Mucho in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance two years ago, so he could put up an unexpectedly strong run, especially if speed is holding up; however, gut thinks he’s more likely to be a pace casualty against this tougher crew.

9. MILES AHEAD (7-2) – Grade 3 veteran produced a big effort off the bench in his debut for McGee in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. on Sept. 17; certainly aided by a hot pace that day, and good try two back against Breeders’ Cup winner Aloha West also aided by a sub :45 half-mile; if he can get that kind of help again up front, he’ll figure, and perhaps conditions will allow that to happen with freezing temperatures lingering in the area this weekend.

10. SIBELIUS (5-2) – Raced a little wide in the Phoenix and didn’t have the kick many expected him to have as the 7-5 favorite; simply might have bounced a bit off of two big wins at Saratoga and Pimlico, and being outrun to the lead or pressing position did him no favors; eligible to bounce back and will break outside the other front runners in this spot, but concedes prior experience over a surface some horses do not grasp at first asking; underlay again?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Saturday, November 12th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 6 tracks on Saturday, November 12th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and more. Good luck and enjoy!


Aqueduct – 12:20 ET
Race 1: 6 Lifetime of Chance
Race 2: 2 Pioneer Spirit
Race 3: 5 Senbei
Race 4: 2 Kingstown
Race 5: 1 Air Show
Race 6: 9 Summer Snow
Race 7: 3 Outlier
Race 8: 4 Two Thirty Five
Race 9: 8 Bern Rosey Bern


Churchill Downs – 1:00 ET
Race 1: 5 Dr. Forman
Race 2: 5 Higher Standard
Race 3: 4 Ghostly Girl
Race 4: 10 Chasing Artie
Race 5: 9 Invaluable
Race 6: 1 Bless the Kitten
Race 7: 12 Wicked Groove
Race 8: 7 Beverly Park
Race 9: 1 Ragtime Blues
Race 10: 5 Intrepid Heart
Race 11: 4 Onenightstandards


Del Mar – 12:30 PT
Race 1: 4 Varoma
Race 2: 5 Pittsburgh
Race 3: 3 Queenzy
Race 4: 7 Faiza
Race 5: 2 Belle Cherie
Race 6: 5 Ice Storm
Race 7: 7 Warrens Candy Girl
Race 8: 1 Big Summer
Race 9: 8 Paulliac


Golden Gate Fields – 12:45 PT
Race 1: 4 Desert Smoke
Race 2: 1 O B’s
Race 3: 6 Getaway Charm
Race 4: 3 Friday’s At Shady
Race 5: 8 Stand the Hot Man
Race 6: 4 Saxon Saga
Race 7: 6 Table for Ten
Race 8: 2 Early Release
Race 9: 11 Austrian Navy


Gulfstream Park – 12:25 ET
Race 1: 5 Stare If You Must
Race 2: 11 Hot Bode
Race 3: 4 Triple Start
Race 4: 2 Justcuzifeellikeit
Race 5: 10 Catching Magic
Race 6: 1 Cutie
Race 7: 4 Rye Sense of Humor
Race 8: 9 Sweet Side
Race 9: 2 Race Craft
Race 10: 4 Super Corinto
Race 11: 8 Candenza


Woodbine – 1:20 ET
Race 1: 8 Pound Green
Race 2: 6 Admonish
Race 3: 6 Dawn Pharoah
Race 4: 7 Lois Len
Race 5: 3 Lonhro’s Gizmo
Race 6: 10 Crumlin Beast
Race 7: 9 Creative Cairo
Race 8: 5 Beyond Mybudget
Race 9: 6 Intro
Race 10: 10 A Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hong Kong Selections for Saturday, November 12, 2022

Nick Child:
R1: 10-2-13-9

R2: 8-9-5-4

R3: 8-3-6-5

R4: 12-6-5-10

R5: 5-12-1-3

R6: 3-7-8-4

R7: 5-1-8-4

R8: 1-12-5-2

R9: 4-13-2-9

R10: 12-4-6-1

BEST BET: R7 N5 BLAZE WARRIOR

LONGSHOT BET: R3 N1 CHICKEN DANCE

PLAY: R10 (Q/QP 4-6-12)

Tom Wood:
R1: 6-10-9-2

R2: 6-5-9-10

R3: 5-8-3-2

R4: 5-6-10-12
R5: 5-12-1-8

R6: 7-4-5-14

R7: 3-4-8-9

R8: 12-2-7-6

R9: 13-2-4-9

R10: 8-12-4-9

BEST: R9 N13 ENCHANTING IBIS (WIN)

VALUE: R10 N8 ALL BEAUTY (EW)

PLAY: R7 QQP 3,4,8

Paul Lally:
R1: 10-6-9-13

R2: 1-6-5-9

R3: 5-9-8-3

R4: 13-5-12-8

R5: 12-5-4-1

R6: 4-14-7-5

R7: 3-4-8-1

R8: 7-5-12-6

R9: 13-4-2-8

R10: 4-12-9-8

Best Bet: R7 N3 The Golden Scenery

Longshot: R3 N5 Dragon's Luck

Play: Race9 QQP 2-4-13