Tuesday 11/15/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 58

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 DESI'S REWARD 5/2
# 3 TRAJEC HOLIDAY 3/1
# 1 ROSE OF SHANAKILL 5/1

DESI'S REWARD is the strongest bet in this race. Should come out very solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. The average class fig of 31 makes this one tough to beat. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Houghton have shown strong results lately. TRAJEC HOLIDAY - Chiappe should be able to get this filly to break out early for this event. Posted a formidable speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. ROSE OF SHANAKILL - Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,400 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#7 FLY ROBYN FLY (ML=4/1)
#1 BELLE MY BELLE (ML=9/2)
#6 ALICESHOUSEOFHEART (ML=7/2)


FLY ROBYN FLY - I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always on the board. Don't often see a positive ROI like +27. This jockey/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. BELLE MY BELLE - Filly's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance. ALICESHOUSEOFHEART - This mount should be motoring down the homestretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TAKING CHARGE DESI (ML=5/2), #5 FINE POINT ASSAY (ML=5/1), #3 BAKERSFIELD BABE (ML=6/1),

TAKING CHARGE DESI - Difficult to wager on any thoroughbred in a short distance event at 5/2 when she hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last two months. FINE POINT ASSAY - Don't feel this runner will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. BAKERSFIELD BABE - The fifth place finish in the last race was not the greatest. This vulnerable equine ran a pedestrian rating last out. She shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat today running that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 FLY ROBYN FLY to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:49pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,900 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#6 TIMELY TRADITION (ML=6/1)
#1 STAND BY YOU (ML=6/1)


TIMELY TRADITION - Possibly a peak effort for this mare today. Been getting closer with each recent start. I think this mare should run back to her winning race from June 22nd, when she won a $25,000 Optional Claiming race. I am keen on that most recent effort on October 21st at Penn National where she finished third. I like this mare. Has the topmost (EPS) earnings per start in this event. STAND BY YOU - Finished seventh at Presque Isle Downs last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 in this field, she looks like a possible contender. Last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good sign she can close well, and should be right there at the finish in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PROPOSITION (ML=2/1), #4 MOONSAFE (ML=5/2), #3 R AVERIE LYNN (ML=4/1),

PROPOSITION - The fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a questionable contender. MOONSAFE - This animal doesn't have a winning disposition. Repeatedly finishes near the winner. R AVERIE LYNN - This filly won last time, but probably won't repeat today versus tougher competition. This less than sharp equine ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 TIMELY TRADITION on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 15 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$8000 - NW $6,001

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 MONARCH 5/2
# 5 GREAT UNKNOWN 6/1
# 4 CANTAB'S MASTER 12/1

MONARCH clearly appears to be the solid standardbred to beat in this contest. He's squaring off in fine form, recording substantial speed ratings. An excellent selection. It's somewhat risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the strongest class statistics of the grouping. Is a very strong choice given the 82 speed rating from his most recent race. GREAT UNKNOWN - More wins than the expected average have been earned by standardbreds lining up behind the 5 hole at Dover Downs. Has very nice speed figs and definitely has to be considered for a bet in this one. CANTAB'S MASTER - Marsh fits this interesting entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some super results when teaming up. With this driver/trainer hooking up, players often make mucho dinero. ROI is very good with this combination.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 2:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$8700 - CD ALL AGES F& M NW $2000 LAST 4 STARTS W/O $35,000 IN 2022 NE. AE: F& M WITH A TM RATING OF 73.01 OR LESS AS OF 11/10/2022 WINNERS IN THIS CLASS OR HIGHER LAST START NE MORNING LINE: 7-5-4-9 H.MYERS - #7 OR 9 NO`S 7 & 9 - UNCOUPLED BY PERMISSION OF PHRC

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 SPANISH DREAM 7/2
# 5 SUZIE BLUE CHIP 9/2
# 9 ELLASEN 6/1

Feel pretty confident putting some green stuff down on SPANISH DREAM. Could provide us a victory based on formidable recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an avg of 74. The 78 avg class rating may give this mare a distinct edge in the pack. With a tremendous driver, who has won at a respectable 30 percent rate the past month, this has to be one of the best choices. SUZIE BLUE CHIP - Many handicappers will recognize the fantastic TrackMaster SR in the last affair. Stacks up against any horse in this group of horses. Not many folks know, but the 5 hole here at The Meadows has been fantastic for an above average win percentage. ELLASEN - The consortium happens to know that when you put Myers and Rickert together formidable results frequently occur. Extremely profitable driver-trainer duet, with a 28 ROI when working with each other.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
3	3	PASS THE VAPE	5/2	Smith, Jeremy - 17	548.95
7	7	JAILHOUSE SAM	10/1	Beatty, Hugh - 22	545.54
1	1	MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN	6/1	Cushing, Mitchell - 8	544.28
4	4	MAGIC NIGHT	3/1	Smith, Trevor - 11	521.50
5	5	FORGET IT IM CRAZY	15/1	Page, Chris - 19	514.48
2	2	SWEET MR PINETUCKY	4/1	Ross, Jordan - 15	500.73
6	6	CONSUS VICTORY	12/1	Sutton, Josh - 10	493.38
8	8	T BARRR	8/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 11	471.71

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
4	4	SETH HANOVER	5/2	Siegelman, Austin - 10	543.69
1	1	WINDSUN RICKY	5/1	Holland, Brent - 9	533.27
2	2	CARLISIMO	7/2	Boyd, Braxten - 9	525.24
7	7	PYRO	12/1	Dube, Daniel - 10	525.23
5	5	REAGAN BLUE CHIP	9/2	Bartlett, Jason - 27	516.29
3	3	ELWELL	9/2	Kakaley, Matt - 18	492.46
8	8	MACINTOSH N	20/1	Buter, Tyler - 10	485.67
6	6	SO MANY ROADS	20/1	Lachance, Pat - 11	469.46