Sunday 11/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN POWER

Event: (263) Chicago Bears at (264) New York Jets

Play: Total Under 38.5 (-110)

The two starting QBs for this game could end up being Mike White and Trevor Siemian. We know White will start for the Jets as HC Robert Salah has apparently seen enough of the ineffective Zach Wilson. Siemian could be called into duty for Chicago, depending on the status of Justin Fields' shoulder, which is reportedly separated.

I don't know why the Bears, a 3-8 team that has lost four in a row, would dare risk Fields' long-term health. If he does end up playing, note the offense was very ineffective in the 2H last week vs. Atlanta, a team that generally can't get much of a pass rush. The Jets are very good at getting to the QB and that's going to be a problem for an atrocious Bears' offensive line. More often than not, Fields can bail the offense out. Siemian will not do that. I don't like an injured Fields to do much against the Jets defense either.

Over the last four games, the Jets' offense has averaged exactly 14 points. They were off a bye last week and didn't even score a TD. Wilson has been horrible, but it's not like White is some massive upgrade. There will not be many points scored in this game.

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ANDREW MCINNIS

Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the Bank as they come off a much-needed bye week after falling short against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. The Ravens are coming off an absolute snoozefest of a win against the struggling Panthers, which they struggled to separate.

The Jaguars' fascinating season continues as they sit at 3-7 while boasting a +11 point differential. Under coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars have found their identity, tightening up defensively with Mike Caldwell as defensive coordinator, and Trevor Lawrence has had a breakout season. The issues for the Jaguars have come in the clutch, as they've failed to close out games this year and come up with big offensive plays on 3rd and 4th downs to extend drives. The Jaguars have faired very strong at home this season going 2-2 at TIAA Bank Stadium while outscoring opponents by 18 points over those four games.

The Ravens have been the definition of good, not great, all season. They win games; they should win and lose games; they should also win. They're tough to read as they have an outstanding coach in Harbaugh, but all the pieces rarely come together weekly for the Ravens outside of Justin Tucker. The Ravens are ranked 9th in scoring this season, but that is a false ranking because they have scored 18.6 points per game since week 4, which would put them in the bottom 8 in the NFL. Defensively the Ravens are strong and stout but have been deceptive to fast-paced offenses that play with no huddle as their defensive line becomes less impactful.

I look for the Jaguars offense to push a pace that tires out the line of the Ravens and attack them in the screen game, where Marvin Jones and Evan Engram can be instrumental as blockers. Defensively, I look for the Jaguars to contain the pocket and make Lamar Jackson beat them with his arm.

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DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (257) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (258) Cleveland Browns

Play: Total Under 42.0 (-110)

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JIMMY ADAMS

Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0 (-120)

The Bucs are a “bet on” team this week against a Browns squad that has now lost 6 of 7. Cleveland’s O-line has allowed opponents to get into the backfield, and Tampa has 32 sacks on the season with a 25% pressure rate. While stopping the run is obviously a top priority for the Bucs, Tom Brady should be able to get what he wants through the air, as the Bucs rank near the top of the league with their passing attack. Tampa is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Fresh off their bye week, expect Tom Brady and company to get the win and cover on Sunday. Take the Bucs.

3% play on Bucs (257) at -3 or better, 2% at -3.5 or worse

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SIG

Event: (257) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (258) Cleveland Browns: Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards

Play: Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards Over 208.5 (-115)

Brissett is most likely making his last start of the year for the Browns as Watson can return from his suspension next week. Brissett has exceeded the total on this prop in his last nine games, and Tampa is allowing opponents to pass for over 215 YPG. Take OVER 208.5 passing yards for Jacoby Brissett as SIG's Sunday Free Play!

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RALPH MICHAELS

Event: (257) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (258) Cleveland Browns

Play: Total Under 42.0 (-110)

(257) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (258) Cleveland Browns

Total Under 42.0 (-110)

Next in line as a client release

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BEN BURNS

Play: SMU -19.5 (-110)

The Mustangs have struggled at the betting window thus far. That should change this afternoon. Lamar suffered a big blow recently when Brock McClure went down to injury. Expect the Mustangs to run the out-classed Cardinals right out of the building.

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RALPH MICHAELS

Play: LSU -12.0 (-110)

#736 3% LSU -12 Wofford 3 PM ET

LSU returned only one starter this season as 6 players were drafted or transferred with the coaching change. New coach Matt McMahon brought a couple of Murry St players over and his winning coaching style has caught on. Lsu toughest test was in the Championship in the Cayman Island where they lost to Kansas St pushing ATS as a 2-pt dog. “It was a crushing loss,” McMahon said, “but I told the team after the game, the last time a team went undefeated in college basketball was 50 years ago.” He was very pleased with the next practice.

Wofford has played one top 200 team and that was an 8 pt loss at Drake. The Terriers other loss was their other road game losing 91-80 at High Point as 3 pt AF. Terries #270 in defensive efficiency.

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TOKYO BRANDON

Play: Quinnipiac +4.0 (-110)

In my two models I have Quinnipiac by 7 in each one. +4 makes it 11 so that is a small value bet for me.

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STEVE MERRIL

Event: (265) Las Vegas Raiders at (266) Seattle Seahawks

Play: Total Over 47.5 (-110)

Two strong offenses and two poor defenses should lead to a high-scoring game on Sunday in Seattle. The Raiders are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense (versus opponents that allow just 5.6 yppl), but Las Vegas permits 6.0 yards per play on defense (vs. opponents that average only 5.6 yppl). Meanwhile, the Seahawks average 6.2 yards per play on offense (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppl), but Seattle is permitting 5.8 yards per play on defense (vs. opponentst that average just 5.5 yppl).

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ANDY LANG

Event: (269) Los Angeles Rams at (270) Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

Play: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Over 287.5 (-125)

This is going to be a tough matchup for the Rams as their rush defense is good, and their pass defense isn’t very good. The last three games teams average only 72.3 yards rushing per game while they averaged 242 yards a game passing, and the Rams opponents in those games were the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Saints…not exactly prolific passing offenses. Mahomes has thrown for 329 yards or more in 5 straight games, and the Chiefs are very thin at running back with only Pacheco and McKinnon healthy right now so they don’t have the running backs to rush the ball a lot. Mahomes has 34 pass attempts or more in every game this season, he should have another big game.

[ConleyPicks]

THE PREZ

Play: San Francisco 49ers -9.0 (-110)

NO +9 vs SF (42)

SF looks like an absolute beast right now.
McCaffrey is a monster – their play calling is incredible – Shanahan is an offensive genius – their Oline is world class and their WR and TEs are insane.
Do I think they are the best team in football – maybe – them, KC, Buffalo, Tenn and Dallas would be my top 5 with Philly and Minny right there.
Throw their offensive numbers out the window as they had a ton of injuries and have a much different set up than at the start of the season – and yet they have the 8th best passing attack and 13th best run attack – that run attack will be top 3 in the 2nd half of the season.
But don’t look past their D – 18 points per game allowed (6th), 10th best stopping the pass and 2nd best stopping the run.
There is literally only 1 way to bet this game – 31-10 SF win
SF -9

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THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (787) Florida at (788) West Virginia

Play: Total Over 146.5 (-110)

Games involving these two teams in the Phil Knight Nike events in Portland this week have averaged more than 160 points per game with all four of them going over the total. New Gators head coach Todd Golden made sure to add established scorers from the portal and to this point ex-Belmont wing Will Richard (15 points per game), ex-VMI G Trey Bonham (hitting better than 40-percent triples), and ex-St Bonaventure PG Kyle Lofton have added a spark and provided a platform for 6-11 senior forward Colin Castleton (20.7 points per game) to flourish in an offense that's scoring 81 points per game this year. But the Mountaineers won’t mind a bit faster pace as Bob Huggins’ bunch is also scoring better than 80 points per game, led by his transfers ex-South Carolina G Erik Stevenson, ex-Texas PF Tre Mitchell and ex-Iowa G Joe Toussaint. Coach Huggins has remade the roster in short order after last season's 16-17 disappointment. “Press Virginia” has also returned to full force in Portland, forcing 46 turnovers across their first two games in Portland, and the Mountaineers finally converting many of those into quick points. Play the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Feinberg
Jaguars
Eagles
Browns

[ConleyPicks]

1.Insider Sports Report NFL Baltimore -3.5

3. Profit On Sports NFL Miami -14

4. Top Rank Sports Picks NBA Portland +8

5. Elite Sports Picks NFL Tennessee +1

6. Doc's Picks NFL Chiefs -15.5

7. Primetime Sports Picks CBB West Virginia +1.5

8. National Sports Service NFL New Orleans +9.5