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Saturday 12/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Key: The Toledo Rockets would be much bigger favorites if they weren't coming off 2 consecutive upset losses as favorites to close out the season. But they had their trip to the MAC Championship Game clinched going into those games, so they were clearly lacking motivation. It showed with their play as they laid eggs against both Bowling Green and Western Michigan. But now the Rockets will be fully focused, and a fully focused Rockets team is the best the MAC has to offer. That's especially the case with Ohio playing without its best player in starting QB Kurtis Roarke. He has completed 69.1% of his passes for 3,256 yards with 25 TD and only 4 INT on the year. Backup Harris is completing just 45.5% of his passes in Roarke's absence. Now he'll be up against a Toledo defense that is the best the MAC has to offer. Toledo only yields 337.8 YPG and 4.8 YPP this year, while Ohio yields 441.8 YPG and 6.4 YPP this year. And that's where this game will be won. The Rockets will get more stops than the Bobcats. Take Toledo.
The bookmakers have the wrong team favored here. Sure the Broncos beat the Bulldogs already this year, and sure the Broncos have a Top 10 ranked defense. Well strength of schedule is a serious concern for Boise State, who's wins came against New Mexico, Colorado State, UT Martin, Nevada, Utah State, San Diego State and Wyoming and Fresno with their backup quarterbacks. Jake Haener is back for the Bulldogs, and they are 5-0 since his return. The Bulldogs lost to USC early in the season, but if you judge their defense based on their other 11 games, it's almost identical to the Broncos. I'll take Fresno as the dog with by far the superior quarterback.
Mountain West Championship from Boise here on Saturday on the Smurph turf. Fresno State met Boise State back on October 8th with the Boise State winning easy, 40-20. Since that loss, Fresno has gone 7-0 S/U and 5-2 ATS including last week at home over Wyoming, 30-0, as a 15-point favorite. Boise State is coming off a win at home over Utah State, 42-23, as a 16.5-point favorite. That makes three straight wins since their loss to BYU on Nov 5th. Boise was perfect in the Mountain West this year, going 8-0. I don't see anything changing from the last meeting. This is on the Boise State blue home turf and that's a big advantage. Your free play is on Boise State.
UCF won a 38-31 shootout for 69 combined points in its first meeting with Tulane this season. I think we get well above 56.5 combined points in the rematch. UCF had 468 yards including 336 rushing against Tulane in that first meeting. Tulane had good balance with 391 yards and 155 rushing with 236 passing. Three of the last four meetings have seen 65 or more combined points. The OVER is 7-0 in Knights last seven games on fieldturf. The OVER is 12-3 in Knights last 15 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Green Wave last six games overall. Give me the OVER.
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