Friday 7/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

- DAILY SELECTIONS FOR JULY 28 KRISTPICKS SARATOGA-
RACE 1: 3 - BUSTIN AWAY 10-1
4 - AGGELOS THE GREAT 7-2
2 - ERIC FROM MIAMI 6-1
RACE 2:1 - KING ANGELO 5-2
3 - FLUID SITUATION 6-1
6 - SOUPER SUCCESS 5-1
RACE 3: 9 - RIVER TAY 12-1
7 - WONDER GIRL 8-1
5 - NURSEKRINGLEDANCES 15-1
RACE 4: 6 - ICY STARE DOWN 10-1
3 - EVERYONELOVESLINDA 12-1
1 - MY SWEET WIFE 5-1
RACE 5:5 - BETA 7-2
7 - COLLOQUY 6-5
2 - KAZ PALACE 6-1
RACE 6: 7 - ASTHROS 12-1
2 - SMART UNCLE 7-2
3 - SACRED RHYME 3-1
RACE 7: 8 - HONOR AMONG MEN 15-1 (longshot)
5 - DISARMED 3-1
1 - COURAGEOOUS OH LA 8-1
RACE 8:7 - STREET SWAGG 5-1
6 - SOUND DOCTRINE 10-1
9 - PROVE RIGHT 2-1
RACE 9: 1 - ARUBA 8-1 (best bet)
10 - SKI PATROL 5-2
8 - HARRY HOOD 9-5
RACE 10: 6 - NEW YORK THUNDER 10-1
5 - RYVIT 9-2
1 - DREW'S GOLD 9-5
RACE 11: 3 - URGENT FURY 8-1
10 - VARIABLE COST 3-1
1 - TIMO 7-2

[ConleyPicks]

DEL MAR FEATURED RACE OF THE DAYBy Frank R. Scatoni On Twitter @ScatoniSureShot www.FrankScatoni.com www.OptixEQ.com Date: 7/28/23

Race 7: $100K Daisycutter Handicap for fillies and mares contested at 5F on turf (rails at 24-feet)Post: approx. post 7:00 p.m. PDT

OVERVIEWFor the second day in a row, we’ve got a tough 5-furlong turf-sprint to sink our teeth into. Today’s contestrace is a fine renewal of the $100K Daisycutter, a 5-furlong turf affair for fillies and mares with the railsat 24-feet. Oh, and by the way, last year’s first two finishers are entered in here, so this is a very goodrace.

#1 TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) (2/1) won this race last year, and she should be tough right back,drawing the rail and having plenty of speed to lean on. Ward is so good with these types, so even thoughshe flopped at Ascot last time, I won’t be too harsh on her. GRADE: B.

#2 TOM’S REGRET—program scratch.

#3 SASSY NATURE (10/1) is going to make things tough for the rail horse because her best races havecome on or near the lead, so you know she’ll be pushing the pace every step of the way. That said, I’mhaving a hard time seeing her put away the rail horse and outkick the closers. GRADE: X.

#4 UNBRIDLED MARY (6/1), the first Sadler entrant, has won two in a row, and she always seems toshow up for business—but she likes to do her bidding from off the pace, and that’s always a tough placeto be at this configuration. I know she’s won here before, but she’s going to need some luck…and therace to fall apart. GRADE: X.

#5 AMY C (5/2), the first D’Amato entrant, is a Grade 3 winner who has never run a bad race in a turfsprint. That said, her best work has come going a little bit longer, so will she be able to get up in time?Perhaps…but as the 5/2 morning-line favorite, perhaps we should look elsewhere for value. GRADE: B.

#6 XMAS SURPRISE (12/1) ran a very good second in this race last year, losing to the rail horse in aheartbreaker. That said, she had the perfect set-up, as there was a very fast early pace, so she was flatteredthat day—and note that she’s 0-for-5 at this short distance. Expect her to be running on late, but I thinkshe’s better suited for underneath. GRADE: X.

#7 WIDE WEST (IRE) (12/1) is a 3-year-old facing some really tough older horses, so I’m skeptical ofher chances even though two things catch my eye. For one, Hernandez bothers to ride, which isimpressive, since most of Proctor’s runners have been anchored by Van Dyke. Secondly, theaforementioned Proctor—who is one of my favorite trainers of all-time—chose this spot against elders. Ilike that she has sharp speed, but I like her more for underneath. GRADE: X.

#8 TONY ANN (6/1), the second D’Amato, should not be 6/1. She looked awesome against upper-levelallowance foes last year over this course, and she should get a great tracking trip, in the clear, as severalspeed horses duke it out. GRADE: A.

#9 PRINCESS ADALEIGH (8/1) is a very cool gal who can act on any surface, so I have a lot of respectfor her ability—but all of her wins have come on the lead, and she’s going to have a tough time clearingtoday. GRADE: X.

#10 SECRETS TOLD (15/1), the second Sadler charge, always seems to run well, but she has settled forway more minor awards than wins—and that concerns me. Plus, she’s looking at a very wide stalkingtrip. GRADE: X.

#11 KITTY KITANA (GB) (6/1) (AE), the third D’Amato entrant, is a cool gal, but she has not reallymoved forward the way I expected her to. Two back, she ran well but lost to a few of these—and I’mconcerned that today’s distance is too short for her. GRADE:

X.CONCLUSIONI do think that #1 TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) (2/1) is a cool horse and the one to beat, but I do thinkthat a few others are going to make her life miserable. If that’s the case, #8 TONY ANN (6/1) is terrificvalue at her morning-line. That’s the play.

[ConleyPicks]

Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner Del mar
BEST BET: 5-Panthera’s Fate (Race 5)
Race #1: 4-Captain Sparrow returns off an 8-month freshening for trainer Mark Glatt after flashing speed and tiring in lone start last November over this turf course. He adds Lasix today, has worked steadily for return, and retains Hernandez who has two wins and a second on the barn’s last three second-time starter turf runners. 7-Neon Lights has run second and third against similar in the last two tries and now shortens up to 5 furlongs. Turf to dirt 3-Midnight Fury doesn’t have much grass pedigree but has shown good early zip in the last three starts for Team O’Neil and makes his second start off the bench this afternoon.
Selections: 4-7-3
Race #2: 6-Seldovia makes the all-important third career start this afternoon and takes a key plummet in class. Trainer Luis Mendez is a strong 7 for 12 (58%) with a $6.35 ROI with Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming dropdowns at Del Mar for the past 3 years. A sharp gate work at SA on July 15 hints at her readiness. 8-Tambo finished an encouraging second on July 8 Los Al debut and now drops in for a tag for her second lifetime start. Tough read on a somewhat suspicious drop. 3-Asian Matriarch is one of two Peter Miller-trained juvenile first-time starter fillies entered here and lures Vasquez off the after-mentioned Tambo.
Selections: 6-8-3
Race #3: 1-Nineeleventurbo has won three straight grass turf route starts for Drysdale including exceeding par for this class level with the most recent (91) Beyer earned on June 10. This 6-year-old gelding has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start since March of last year and projects to get another favorable trip with rail draw. 5-Seven Wonders makes the second start off the bench today for Eurton off a decent 3rd in an allowance 1x at Santa Anita back in June. This colt broke his Maiden over this grass course last August. Kentucky shipper 4-Cowboy Justice (GB) was a multiple winner overseas and drops out of the Grade 2 Wise Dan at Ellis where he did little running. This softer spot should help.
Selections: 1-5-4
Race #4: 4-Wishtheyallcouldbe goes turf to dirt for trainer Mike Puype on the class drop and makes her second start off the bench. This mare’s main track tries have been decent, and she should get a lively pace to close into. The speedy 3-Ten the Smart Way ships down from Golden Gate off the mini-freshening for trainer Andy Mathis and has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions—albeit over the synthetic footing. The 5-year-old mare turns back from a mile today. 6-Signora Minister held on by a nose in a recent game win at Los Al on June 24 earning a speed figure that matches up well here.
Selections: 4-3-6
Race #5: You can’t get any worse of a trip than 5-Panthera’s Fate had in his June 10 debut for D’Amato when facing several of the same rivals. The gelding broke slowly, spotting the field several lengths, rushed up into contention along the inside, and then was forced to steady numerous times while extremely hard to handle and running up on runners amongst heavy traffic. He galloped out in front past the wire when finally shaking free in a brutal journey. 4-Luke Grazie makes the second start off the extended layoff for Miller and moves back to the Del Mar turf, where he had three ITM finishes last fall going this mile trip. Hernandez takes over. 6-Grazed exits the same June 10 event as the top choice when flashing improved speed and settling for second. He stretches out in second start off the long layoff.
Selections: 5-4-6
Race #6: 5-Home Cooking looks primed for top effort making her second start off the bench today for Baffert and Hernandez. This filly was a smashing Maiden winner over this course last summer and shows a “best of 96” bullet sub :59 5-furlong drill on July 23 since that last 4th place finish at Santa Anita. The Curlin filly 9-Coffee in Bed has shown ability in both career starts for Mandella with a winning debut followed by a strong second-place finish and (86) Beyer back in March when facing winners for the first time. She turns back to 6 furlongs for her first start in 4 months. 6-Pequena Tormenta has improved dramatically as a 5-year-old with a sharp blowout 7-furlong win and a recent runner-up finish on June 17. Her versatile running style should serve her well in this spot.
Selections: 5-9-6
Race #7: Trainer Wesley Ward is 3 for 5 (60%) in the last three meets when making his first start over the surfside strip, and he sends out 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) winner 1-Twilight Gleaming who returns from Ascot off a subpar performance. This is a much softer spot and ideal to help build her confidence. She’s a serious gate-to-wire threat from the rail. 4-Unbridled Mary is back in southern California off a sharp career-best Beyer (88) in a come-from-behind minor stake win at Lone Star. She’s proven over this turf course and is eligible to move forward, making second start off the bench. 5-Amy C was a close-up 3rd in the G3 Intercontinental at Belmont in the most recent start on June 9. This mare makes first start at 5 furlongs for D’Amato.
Selections: 1-4-5
Race #8: 2-Ballymun is one of two Peter Miller-trained debut runners in the Friday nightcap. This juvenile gelding is by multiple G1 winner Midshipman who gets 14% with his 2-year-old debuting prodigy. Hernandez takes the call. The beaten favorite in the last start 9-Mr. Dreamcycle is the most experienced runner in the field, with three career starts for trainer Steve Miyadi. He’s flashed speed and tired in the last two efforts. 10-Shining Tiger (By Smiling Tiger) is nicely drawn outside with decent-looking a.m. drills, but the barn is a disappointing 0 for 16 with Maiden Claiming debut runners the past four years.
Selections: 2-9-10

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar analysis by handicapper Jarrod Horak

Get my Expert Del Mar picks for today’s races

Jarrod's Summer Meet Free Pick Winners
July 22 - Anisette ($6.20)


Friday, July 28, 2023
Race 1 (MSW, 5T)
Post Time 7:00 PM EDT


Primary - #3 MIDNIGHT FURY, #4 Captain Sparrow
Secondary - #7 Neon Lights, #12 Seal Team
Wagers: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-4, Trifecta 3-4/3-4-7-12/3-4-7-12


Click here for Del Mar Entries, Results

Comments:

#3 Midnight Fury (5-2) ran last in his local turf sprint bow in 2021. He hit the board in his next three dirt sprints and disappeared for more than 16 months. He returned in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita on June 18 and he dueled outside and was best of the rest in third. Sir Atticus won that race and he impressively clicked back at Del Mar on opening week. Ramon Vazquez knows him now, dam has tossed a turf winner, and he will probably attend the pace. Doug O’Neill won five races on opening week. #4 Captain Sparrow (4-1) dueled and weakened to fourth in his course and distance bow last fall. He adds lasix for this and Juan Hernandez sticks with Mark Glatt’s returnee. #7 Neon Lights (4-1) chased the pace and hit the board in his last two longer turf sprints. Tiago Pereira strings along and he might like this shorter trip. AE #12 Seal Team (3-1) needs help to get in. He adds lasix and Umberto Rispoli is listed to ride. He rallied for the place in his local bow at this distance last fall and finished in front of Captain Sparrow that day. He sports three bullets for this including a best of 14 local move on July 25.

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Friday 28th 2023

4pm racing is back and we have 8 races today. This is a very good card for a Friday!

My longshot/value plays are horses I think will out run their longshot odds and even potentially win at nice prices. This can be very useful for those doing exotic bets such as trifectas, exactas and Pick 4/5/6’s.


Longshot/Value Plays of the Day:
Race 6: Practica Cat – ship and win from Gulfstream with some monster workouts since the last race. Class and speed tower over the rest.
Today’s Race 8 $0.50 Late Pick 4 will cost $72 with horses listed in preference
Race 5: 3,5,11
Race 6: 9,10,3,6
Race 7: 5,1,3,8
Race 8: 9,2,8

Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.
*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outsider for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

[ConleyPicks]

Deuce Bruce will offer a Free Play every racing day of the 2023 Racing Season.

“Deuce Bruce” FREE PLAY for Del Mar Friday, July 28th, 2023
Yesterday’s FREE PLAY was #3 BOLD CHOICE in the 8th who tracked in a good position but had no kick on the lane, we did not have the winner #11 there. Otherwise we had 2 of 8 Card Wins with 0 Top Wins. Included were the 6,7 Double $176.00, 6th Exacta $74.00, 6th Trifecta $71.15, 6th 10 cent Superfecta $126.58, 7th Exacta $35.20, 7th Trifecta $13.70 on 3-horse-box. We also had the 1st 10 cent Superfecta for $89.49. Still, struggled on the day with several alternates winning. Check the Yesterday page to view, thank you.

(7) #4 UNBRIDLED MARY may be the ‘now’ filly off that big win at Lone Star, she’s worth a look at the fair price. #5 AMY C has won a Grade 3 and need only time her move at this shorter trip. #1 TWILIGHT GLEAMING also has class with these but is speed from the rail with two other speed-types outside of her. As the favorite we’re going to try to beat her and leave her as the 3rd pick. Bet #4 UNBRIDLED MARY (WP), Box the Exacta 4/5/1 with extra Exacta Boxes of 4/5, Box the Trifecta 4/5/1/6, and Box the Superfecta 4/5/1/6 $24. (*Note: Alternates to replace any late scratches are #6, #8, and #11 is worth a look also if she sneaks into the race). BEST OF LUCK ON THE FIRST 4 O’CLOCK FRIDAY OF THE DEL MAR SUMMER SEASON!

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Atlanta w/Chirinos -175 over Milwaukee

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U
Friday Free Selection: Minnesota Twins/Kansas City Royals under 9

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports
Friday's Free Play: Cincinnati Reds + 200

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Friday Baseball Selection From Lee
SAINT LOUIS w/Montgomery -145

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Arthur Ralph
Free Play 86-58 run FRI: Redsox w/ Crawford +145

TY THURS: Mets w/ Senga

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Vegas Steam Line
Your FREE WINNER for Friday: PHILADELPHIA (Wheeler) -155 over Pittsburgh

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, July 28, 2023

MLB

967. Tampa Bay Rays -1.13 (5:10 PT / 8:10 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Roz Wins
ROZ FREE Selection FRIDAY, JULY 28, 2023

MLB

975. Mariners -1.27 (6:40 PT / 9:40 ET)

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Platinum Plays
Your Free Pick: Cincinnati/LA Dodgers Game OVER 9.5 Runs