Sunday 9/10/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Cubs-136

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Raiders+3.5 +100

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Mike Lundin

NFL Free Pick September 10, 2023

It's a new era for the Packers who traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets during the offseason. Jordan Love will quarterback the Packers this season, and while certainly no Rodgers, he's surrounded by a lot of talent on both offense and defense.

The Bears have a better QB option in Justin Fields, but their defense looks weak and player by player, I think the Packers have a better team overall.

Bet this free pick on Packers with 2% of your bankroll.

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Eagles/Patriots UNDER 45

There is a chance of rain with double-digit winds forecast for Gillette Stadium in New England Sunday. The weather will help aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket. These are also two of the best defenses in the NFL heading into the 2023 season, and the Patriots will once again have one of the worst offenses in the league this season.

Mac Jones has been a major disappointment for the Patriots thus far. Of course, it doesn't help that they just haven't given him any weapons, and that is the case again this season. They lost Jakobi Meyers in the offseason and replaced him with the injury-riddled JuJu Smith-Schuster. He will be starting beside DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne on the outside. The offensive line is banged up to start the season with three starters questionable to play in the opener.

Despite an offense that averaged just 21.4 points per game, the Patriots nearly made the playoffs last year because of their defense, which gave up just 20.4 points per game. Their pass rush is a strength behind Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise Jr.. These two along with Josh Uche combined for 34.5 sacks last year. The pass rush masks a secondary that was the weakness last year. But the Patriots used their first-round pick on CB Christian Gonzalez, who pairs well with Jonathan Jones.

No question the Eagles had one of the best offenses in the NFL last year. But they elected to sit starters in the preseason, so they could come out a little rusty. What won't be rusty is a Philadelphia defense that got overlooked last year. The led the NFL in sacks and nearly set the league record for most sacks in the regular season. What's scary is that they could have an even better pass rush this year by using each of their last two first-round picks on pass rushers in Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. They also used their second-round pick on Nolan Smith, another athletic edge rusher at linebacker.

Scoring is usually suppressed early in the NFL season with the defenses ahead of the offenses. I think that will certainly be the case in this game. The Patriots are going to try and run a ball control offense and rely on their defense to try and keep them in this game. They don't want to get in a shootout with the Eagles, and with them playing at home they should be able to play this one on their terms. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Brandon Lee

7* NFL Raiders/Broncos Free Pick

PLAY ON DENVER BRONCOS -3

I'll take my chances with the Broncos laying just 3-points at home against the Raiders. There's a chance Russell Wilson is broken and this play could go down in flames, but I have a hard time believing it's going to be anywhere close to as bad as it was last year. I think a lot of the problems for Denver last year fell on head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was way over his head. Sean Payton is going to have this team playing much better football. People forget if the offense would have just been decent last year, Denver at the very least could have been a playoff team. Broncos had 6 losses in games where their defense gave up fewer than 20 points. The offense also showed life late, scoring 24 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. I'm also not big at all on the Raiders this year. Las Vegas had a big downgrade at quarterback from Carr to Garoppolo and simply didn't make the improvements needed on a defense that finished last year ranked 28th in total defense (365.6 ypg) and 26th in scoring defense (24.6 ppg). Give me the Broncos -3!

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ASA

#471 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week 1 we will back this Divisional Underdog which falls into a very profitable system dating back several years. In the last eight years if you had blindly bet Divisional Dogs in Wk #1, you would have produced a 31-13-2 ATS record or 70.4% returns. Also, Divisional Road dogs of +6.5 points or less are on an 18-7-1 ATS streak since 2013. The Raiders have won 6 straight in this rivalry and don’t be surprised if they make it 7 in a row after Sunday. Las Vegas has a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo after Derek Carr departed for New Orlean. Jimmy G is an upgrade considering Carr who is coming off a down year with a 60.8 completion % (lowest since 2014) and 24 TD’s with 14 INT’s. For all the knocks on Garoppolo he is 40-17 SU as a regular season starter in his career. He won’t have to carry the load either with RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams on the roster. Jacobs led the league in rushing yards a year ago and Adams caught 14 TD’s, most in the league. Denver brought in head coach Sean Payton to try and revive this team and namely QB Russell Wilson. Wilson struggled last season with a 38.7QBR and 16 TD’s to 11 INT’s, some of his worst numbers since coming to the NFL. The Broncos were 21st in rushing yards per game, last in scoring at 16.9PPG, 23rd in Yards Per Play (5.1) and 19th in passing yards per game. Denver certainly holds an advantage defensively in this match up, but we do expect Las Vegas to be better on that side of the football this season. In the two meetings last year the Raiders outgained the Broncos 792 total yards to 619 and they’ve won 3 straight in the series as an Underdog. As long as this is +3 or more, we will grab the points.

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Packers/Bears over 41

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Miami Dolphins +3

The Miami Dolphins lost 23-17 on the road to the Los Angeles Chargers last year. That came in the midst of a brutal three-game road trip that started with a 33-17 loss at San Francisco and ended with a 32-29 loss at Buffalo. It was a terrible scheduling spot with a lot of travel from Miami to San Francisco, back home to Miami and back out to Los Angeles. So you can forgive them for their poor performance in that game. The Chargers did a good job of taking away what the Dolphins like to do offensively in that game, but now the Dolphins have had all offseason to prepare for it and adjust. They have had this game circled all offseason wanting their revenge. The Chargers have almost zero home-field advantage, and I think these teams are very evenly-matched, so getting 3 points is a nice value. Keep in mind Miami was a 3-point road favorite over the Chargers last year, and now are catching 3 points in the rematch, which is a 6-point adjustment. Give me the Dolphins.

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Raiders/Broncos Under 43 -106


Where do the points come from?

Jimmy Garoppolo is a game-manager facing a Denver defense that has many underrated players such as Alex Singleton, Josey Jewell and Justin Simmons. Unlike last year, the Broncos defense is healthy. Garoppolo is one of the least explosive quarterbacks in the league.

Sean Payton has a reputation for being an offensive guru. But what does he have? A washed-up Russell Wilson, a cluster injury problem at wide receiver, a hole at tight end and a mediocre offensive line that has to deal with Maxx Crosby, who led the NFL with 22 tackles for losses last season.

Even if Payton can fix Wilson - certainly not a given - that's going to take time. This is opening week. The Raiders have had Denver's number winning the past six times, while holding the Broncos to an average of 17.3 points during the last three meetings.

I see special teams as being a plus for the Under. Yes, the Raiders have a tremendous kicker in Daniel Carlson. But they also have an excellent punter, AJ Cole. He had the fourth-highest punting average in the NFL last season and he'll be punting in Denver's high altitude.

Wil Lutz is the Broncos' new kicker. He wasn't very good with the Saints last year and that was kicking in a dome. He's also one of the least accurate long-range kickers in the league.

This has all the makings of being a tight, low-scoring division game.

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Raiders+3.5 +100

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Alex Smart

Free Play: Packers+1

QB Jordan Love Im betting learned alot from former top gun QB Aaron Rodgers as his under study and must not be underestimated in his ability to take down the Bears here today. The Packers new starting QB had a viable preseason completing 63.6% of his passes for 193 yards, including three touchdowns, and no interceptions and looked cool under pressure .Meanwhile, in recent seasons the pundits continue to give false hope to a Bears uprising, and that hopmism seems to consistently get crushed and for at least today in Game 1 Im expecting another depressive episode.

Green Bay is 8-0 SUATS L/8 in this series,, while Chicago is a lowly 1-11 ATS in its L/12 division tilts .

CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (CHICAGO) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Green Bay to cover

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Joseph D'Amico

Sunday’s FREE WINNER: New York Giants+3.5

Game 480.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

These two division rivals know each other so very well. They also share a true dislike for one another too. The Cowboys have had the Giants number, winning nine of the last 10 meetings SU, going 7-3 ATS. Dallas enters this season touted to contend for the Division, as well as the Conference. New York’s expectations aren’t as high. The Giants come off a surprisingly successful campaign. The G-Men came out of the gate strong, but faded down the stretch a bit, losing steam. They were money against the number, covering 14 of 19, including 11 of 14 as a ‘dog. The Cowboys fell short again last year. Concerns regarding QB, Dak Prescott’s tendency to throw INT’s and no more Ezekiel Elliott, have many questioning the team. There is a ton of pressure on them, for sure. As far as New York goes, they added a few weapons and need to improve on the defensive side of the ball. Reports are that the stop-unit is significantly stronger this season. One last item: The Giants schedule has the team playing seven of their first 11 games on the road. Opening the season at home in front of their loyal fans before playing away for most of the next few months, against a hated rival, will truly motivate them here. Remember, they went 6-3 ATS at Met Life Stadium a season ago, while the Cowboys failed to cover six of their 10 games played as a visitor. Take the points here with New York. Thank you.