Saturday 9/23/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 93

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED QUARTER HORSES THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2023 NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR QUARTER HORSE DERBY. WEIGHT 126 LBS. TO ENTER TRIALS, SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE ACCEPTED ON OR BEFORE ENTRY DATE FOR THE TRIALS IN THE AMOUNT OF $15,000 WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL FEES. FINALS TO BE RUN ON SUNDAY, OCTOBER

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DOING SOMETHING GOOD 9/2
# 3 WHITE LIGHTENIN 5/2
# 9 WOODYS STORM 8/1

I think DOING SOMETHING GOOD is a competitive choice. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 89 Equibase speed fig earned in his last outing. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in as of late. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent speed figs with an average of 88. WHITE LIGHTENIN - Looks strong versus this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying respectable figs recently and an average speed figure of 85 under similar conditions. WOODYS STORM - With a very good 91 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Should be used in the exotic bets.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:05pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,400 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#10 PRANCIPANTS (ML=9/2)
#8 RENAISSANCE (IRE) (ML=7/2)
#4 ADDISON (ML=5/1)

PRANCIPANTS - If you review the PP's for this thoroughbred, you'll see she has recorded the top Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. Sneaky speed on this one. She'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then demolish them down the stretch. This mare is in nice form. Ended up second on September 3rd. RENAISSANCE (IRE) - This thoroughbred is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Belterra Park was tops in this bunch. Utilizing this rider/conditioner combination is a smart choice. Past performance lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figs. Correa should be on a live one in this field. ADDISON - I am keen on that most recent effort on September 6th at Belterra Park where she ended up third. I think this mare is coming into top form. Average class rating is tops in this field. I think that is a big advantage for a race on the grass.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CARLIE Q BLUE (ML=2/1), #9 AZAMANA EMPIRE (ML=6/1), #1A WHISKEY SIS (ML=8/1),

CARLIE Q BLUE - This racer's record tells you not to bet on her as the favorite. Hasn't been on the Belterra Park oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. AZAMANA EMPIRE - I'm forecasting a lackluster effort out of her this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #10 PRANCIPANTS on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 1:31pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#5 CAROL T (ML=8/1)
#4 GINUCCHA (ML=4/1)
#1 CALLE AMADA (ML=3/1)

CAROL T - A repeat of that latest effort on September 1st where she registered a speed rating of 67 looks good enough to score in this event. I like that most recent contest on September 1st at Saratoga where she ran third. Was in a Maiden Special race at Saratoga last time out. That clash had an Equibase class figure of 81 and she is moving down in this event. A certain solid contender. GINUCCHA - Faced tougher in the last race at Saratoga. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders. CALLE AMADA - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first ride on August 6th. Should know the animal even better this time around. She finished in the place spot August 6th, but was well in front of the show horse. Earnings per race entered is something that I think can be a key handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked at the top of the list in this field. Faced tougher in the last race at Saratoga. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of strong contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RINGER CARD (ML=5/1), #10 FULLMOONMAGIC (ML=8/1), #13 PEACH TEA (ML=8/1),

RINGER CARD - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this mount as a questionable challenger. FULLMOONMAGIC - Not likely that the speed rating she notched on August 22nd will be enough in this event. PEACH TEA- The fourth place finish position in the last race was not the greatest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 CAROL T on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SO - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 100

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ON THE TURF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000-$45,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MIGHTY MEISTER 15/1
# 5 SAMBURU (GB) 2/1
# 4 SUE LOVES BARBADOS 6/1

MIGHTY MEISTER looks strong to best this field and could score at a price in here. Sound average Equibase Speed Figs in turf sprint races make this pony a solid choice. Should be carefully examined based on the solid speed rating posted in the last contest. Vaunts solid Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. SAMBURU (GB) - Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. He has been running solidly lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:13 AM

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - September 23

Sep. 23, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	6	The Reign Song	T J Pereira
PLACE	5-2	1	A Broken Breeze	R A Vazquez
SHOW	5-1	2	Bandeena	A Ayuso
WILD CARD	9-5	5	Pens Street	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Jacrodras Devil	C Ortega
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Shvere Arbeter	A Alsagoor

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CRIMSON ROSE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Crimson Rose	J Torrealba
PLACE	3-1	1	Lasting Love	E Payeras
SHOW	5-1	5	Bengal Tiger	R S Ramirez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Sugar Sugar	T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	3	Keychain Girl	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Tip Top Gal	K Frey

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:59 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 ESTABLISHED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Established	R A Vazquez
PLACE	6-1	1	Oil Can Knight	E Payeras
SHOW	2-1	2	Patron dOro	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Alpine Thunder	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Pacos Pico	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Molto Vivace	T J Pereira

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	South Coast Route	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	9	Mt. Zeror	A Cedillo
SHOW	4-1	2	King Zog	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Reef City	J Torrealba

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Habeas	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Eagles Landing	K Frey

* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX

RACE #5 $16,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Whisky My God	R S Ramirez
PLACE	2-1	6	Perfect D	E Payeras
SHOW	5-2	4	Newpark	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	5-2	3	High Press	R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Afternoon Heat	E Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Elusive Virtue	C Ortega

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #6 $28,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Signora Minister	G Franco
PLACE	4-1	2	Shes a Bit Sassy	R A Vazquez
SHOW	7-2	4	Whistlers Style	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Indys Star	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Tizzy Twister	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Hennys Crazy Train	J Torrealba

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #7 $16,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Golf Drama	K Frey
PLACE	5-1	2	Cathedral Light	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	3	Warrens World	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Mentirosa	R S Ramirez

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	New York Dreams	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Imperial Hornet	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

RACE #8 $52,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 TOM HORN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Tom Horn	T J Pereira
PLACE	5-1	6	Sauls Call	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	3	So Im Told	E Payeras
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Gypsy Tears	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Rifey	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	Rachels Coach	A Cedillo

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #9 $125,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:06 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY R9: $125,000 DARK MIRAGE STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	6	Ganadora	R A Vazquez
PLACE	5-1	2	Trouville	A Fresu
SHOW	12-1	5	Smoothlikebuttah	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Yuki	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Chismosa	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Angel Nadeshiko	J Valdivia Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: GANADORA drops in class after finishing third in a grade III last out. TROUVILLE has two wins with three seconds and thirds in nine at Los Al. SMOOTHLIKEBUTTAH is trending in the right direction and finished in the money 14 of 16 at the distance. YUKI has plenty of early speed but cannot seem to hold on late.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:14 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 23

Sep. 23, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Luz Divina	G Corrales
PLACE	7-2	2	Buchu	M Garcia
SHOW	3-1	10	Weighted Average	C A Torres
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Ba Dee Yah	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Without Cause	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	12	She Is Invincible	J A Torres

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX

RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	6	Sweet Mimi	C A Torres
PLACE	5-1	5	Bikini Bottom	E Morales
SHOW	9-2	8	Backwoods Barbie	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Quimichis	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Wampus Kitten	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Art Queen	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX

RACE #3 $75,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 QUATERNION

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	6	Quaternion	R Bejarano
PLACE	5-2	7	B Sudd	R Gutierrez
SHOW	6-1	1	Jrs Gift	T Canuto
WILD CARD	3-1	4	Escapologist	J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Route Runner	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Bright Spark	A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 THE PRINCESS SAYS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	The Princess Says	F Arrieta
PLACE	7-2	6	Aunt Jo	R Bejarano
SHOW	3-1	1	Evies Encore	E Morales
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Weather Map	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	English Charm	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Sha Girl	M Chuan

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:57 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SAHALAT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Sahalat	G Corrales
PLACE	5-1	7	Not So Holy	R Bejarano
SHOW	6-1	3	Furious Anger	M Chuan
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Boptrot	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Shortstop	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Ben Franklin	J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Cellist	M Garcia
PLACE	3-1	2	Accredit	L Machado
SHOW	6-1	8	War Campaign	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	4-1	13	Search Engine	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Grays Fable	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	12	Warrior Johny	M Garcia

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 2/8/13 BOX

RACE #7 $300,000 STAKES 1 3/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:05 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 BOURBON TRAIL STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Oscar Eclipse	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	2	Slip Mahoney	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	1	Manciata dOro	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Denington	C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Big Data	E Jaramillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Shirls Bee	J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
COMMENTS: OSCAR ECLIPSE increased his speed figure in the last three starts including the highest last race number. SLIP MAHONEY is a head away from winning two in a row and will likely rebound in the third start after a layoff. MANCIATA D ORO improved sharply in both races after his debut. DENINGTON is a consistent performer with some of the best numbers in the field but does not know how to win.

RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:39 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 HARRODS CREEK STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Everso Mischievous	C A Torres
PLACE	3-1	3	Loyal Company	D Cannon
SHOW	7-2	5	Mount Up	E Jaramillo
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Determinedly	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Bourbon Bash	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	Bouncer	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
COMMENTS: EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS won both of his races at the distance and has some strong in race pace ability. LOYAL COMPANY ran the highest last race speed figure and could benefit from cutting back in distance. MOUNT UP upped his speed figures in the last three outing and ran faster times last out. DETERMINEDLY has been off since July but has some really nice workouts getting prepped.

RACE #9 $175,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:11 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $175,000 SENECA OVERNIGHT STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Taxed	C A Torres
PLACE	3-1	4	Poblano	F Arrieta
SHOW	6-1	2	Sabra Tuff	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	10-1	8	Nomadic Pride	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Xigera	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Champagne Calling	D Cannon

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
COMMENTS: TAXED drops in class after running in a handful of graded stakes. POBLANO ran the highest last race speed figure by 9 points. SABRA TUFF puts a consistent effort in from start to finish and should close at the end. NOMADIC PRIDE just flashed a big race out of nowhere and sometimes they are followed up with another solid performance at a price.

RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:42 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 DOGWOOD STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Alexa Lou	J R Leparoux
PLACE	3-1	1	Yesternight	J Graham
SHOW	6-1	4	B G Warrior	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Lady Radler	J L Castanon

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Santa Fe Gold	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Norah G	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: ALEXA LOU ran the highest last race speed figure and her resume says a better one is coming in round two off the bench. YESTERNIGHT showed plenty of early pace last out and is cutting back in distance today. B G WARRIOR should be close to the pace early and exhibited more late stamina in her most recent outing. LADY RADLER hit the board in six if six on dirt with three wins.

RACE #11 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	11	Forever After All	C J Lanerie
PLACE	9-2	2	Call Again	J Graham
SHOW	5-1	12	Lets Duet	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Her Ladyship	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Bru Na Boinne	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Grand Entrance	E Jaramillo

* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/11/12 BOX, 2/8/12 BOX

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:14 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - September 23

Sep. 23, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 50% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 CITIZEN MACK

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Citizen Mack	J Lezcano
PLACE	4-1	2	Duke of Gloucester	T McCarthy
SHOW	5-1	1	Berlone	M Olver
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Calibrachoamatters	L R Rivera Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Louies Heat	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Little Skippy	K Davis

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #2 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1A	Listentothemusic	J Rosario
PLACE	9-5	2	City Fever	J L Ortiz
SHOW	3-5	11	Digitize	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	7	Vocalize	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	2-1	1	Acoustic Ave	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Octopus	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/7/11 BOX

RACE #3 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $125,000 ASHLEY T COLE STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	2	City Man	J Rosario
PLACE	7-2	6	Jerry the Nipper	J L Ortiz
SHOW	8-5	9	Dr Ardito	M Franco
WILD CARD	2-1	10	Drakes Passage	Rider TBA

ALTERNATE 1	8-5	3	Spirit of St Louis	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Somelikeithotbrown	J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
COMMENTS: CITY MAN has four wins in six races on Aqueduct grass. JERRY THE NIPPER finished in the first three in six of seven on turf. DRAKES PASSAGE is the top pick if the race is moved to dirt. DR ARDITO is another MTO horse as it is supposed to rain.

RACE #4 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Suspended Campaign	K Carmouche
PLACE	7-2	8	Its Cold in Dehere	I Castillo
SHOW	5-1	3	Alpine Queen	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Linny Kate	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Wait a Minute	A S Worrie
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Trade Secret	R R Maragh

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX

RACE #5 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Blue Eighty Five	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	6	Taporical	D Davis
SHOW	9-2	3	Winwood	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Seba M	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Morq	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Retail Man	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:46 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	4	Alleys Song	M Franco
PLACE	8-1	3	Miss Omaha	J L Ortiz
SHOW	5-1	2	Perfectly Mperfect	K Davis
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Princess Becca	J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	7	Sol Emperatriz	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1A	Bank On Belle	L R Rivera Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX

RACE #7 $150,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:16 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $150,000 NOBLE DAMSEL STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Fluffy Socks	M Franco
PLACE	6-5	6	Gina Romantica	F Prat
SHOW	10-1	2	Runaway Rumour	D Davis
WILD CARD	9-5	7	Gerrymander	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	5-2	11	Movie Moxy	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	9	Venti Valentine	M Franco

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
COMMENTS: FLUFFY SOCKS has three wins and a close second in four at the distance. GINA ROMANTICA is unbeaten in a pair on a wet track and rain is in the forecast. RUNAWAY RUMOURs last race was a little better than it looks with similar fractions despite going a little longer on a softer surface. GERRYMANDER should be part of the early going and tied for the highest last race speed figure.

RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	15	Newport Bridge	J L Ortiz
PLACE	10-1	12	Volkert	D Davis
SHOW	8-1	4	Empire Sky	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	16	Ten Cent Town	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	2-1	7	Ortus	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	War Terminator	K Davis

* EXACTA: 15-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-16 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/12/15 BOX, 4/12/16 BOX

RACE #9 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SUNDAESWITHSANDY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Sundaeswithsandy	K Carmouche
PLACE	8-1	7	Certified Loverboy	D Davis
SHOW	10-1	5	Fromanothamutha	F Prat
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Abadin	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Set Sail	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Luni Sima	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #10 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	10	Book of Wisdom	J Rosario
PLACE	6-1	11	Enfuega	M Franco
SHOW	4-1	9	Landed	D Davis
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Granadilla	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Tavin	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Dame Catherine	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/11 BOX, 3/9/11 BOX

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:14 AM

Parx Tip Sheet - September 23

Sep. 23, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 73% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:35 AM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Kohlers	A Adorno
PLACE	4-1	4	Brysons Option	R Silvera
SHOW	8-1	3	Le Vin	E Ruiz
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Maycocks Bay	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Checking Boxes	M J Sanchez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Twilight Dancer	F Pennington

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/9 BOX

RACE #2 $150,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $150,000 PRINCE LUCKY STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	9	Notice of Action	A Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	4	Gamboling Ghost	J Rendon
SHOW	5-1	3	Chilling Hassle	S Gonzalez
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Poker Partner	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Lost and Confused	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Standpoint	P Lopez

* EXACTA: 3,4,5,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,9/2,3,4,5,9/3,4,9
COMMENTS: NOTICE OF ACTION crushed the competition in his debut with stakes level early pace numbers. GAMBOLING GHOST improved in both of his races and a similar move forward today could be enough. CHILLING HASSLE showed plenty of early speed in his debut and should be more fit in career start number two. POKER PARTNER could be dangerous if he returns to his debut form.

RACE #3 $150,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:33 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $150,000 IMPLY STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Aoifes Magic	W Vasquez
PLACE	5-1	9	Sirani	F Pennington
SHOW	6-1	2	Jodys Ruby	A Adorno
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Dancing Spirit	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	One Eyed Jackie	A Y Nunez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	6	Lucky Opportunity	P Lopez

* EXACTA: 2,4,5,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,9/2,4,9/2,4,5,8,9
COMMENTS: AOIFES MAGIC ran consistently without any falloff in her debut. SIRANI has a good chance to be the pacesetter and go all the way. JODYS RUBY has been consistent in her first three races and won at this level last out. DANCING SPIRIT faced tougher last out coming home third in a 150k non graded stakes.

RACE #4 $60,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MASROUR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Masrour	D Haddock
PLACE	5-1	3	Fast Breakin Cash	M J Sanchez
SHOW	15-1	6	Traders Luck	L D Rivera
WILD CARD	6-1	12	Johnny Ritt	E Ruiz

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Mr. Roundtree	A Adorno
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	11	Caramel Chip	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/6/12 BOX

RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 RINGER CARD

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	3	Ringer Card	P Lopez
PLACE	8-1	10	Fullmoonmagic	F Pennington
SHOW	3-1	1	Calle Amada	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Ginuccha	M J Sanchez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Carol T	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	13	Peach Tea	J Laprida

* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX

RACE #6 $100,000 STAKES 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:01 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $100,000 PLUM PRETTY STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	9	Morning Matcha	P Lopez
PLACE	12-1	6	Gunfyre Gal	F Pennington
SHOW	6-1	3	Warriors Ransom	R Silvera
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Lindalovesgold	A Adorno

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Social Success	A Salgado
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	One More Kelly	J Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 9/2,3,6 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,6,9/3,6,9/2,3,7,6,9
COMMENTS: MORNING MATCHA is going to flip from turf to dirt which is a 38 percent winner for trainer Robert Reid. GUNFYRE GAL increased her pace through the first half mile last out and has a bullet work since. WARRIORS RANSOM should make a lot of noise late with impressive closing speed at times. LINDALOVESGOLD ran some faster fractions last out and will be most dangerous if she gets the early lead.

RACE #7 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $200,000 GREENWOOD CUP STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	6	Next	L Machado
PLACE	3-1	3	Ridin With Biden	P Lopez
SHOW	7-2	4	Calibrate	R Silvera
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Bear Oak	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Forewarned	D Haddock
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	My Imagination	J Laprida

* EXACTA: 3,4,6,8/3,6
* TRIFECTA: 3,6/3,4,6/3,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: NEXTs last race speed number was 4 points clear of the next closest horse. RIDIN WITH BIDEN could steal this one and go wire to wire with the right fractions. CALIBRATE tends to save his best for last and should not be too far off the pace with this group. BEAR OAK is the improving horse winning his last two and could benefit from extra distance today.

RACE #8 $250,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $250,000 TURF MONSTER STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	2	Nobody Listens	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	10	Talented Man	A Hernandez
SHOW	9-5	4	Roses for Debra	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Beren	F Pennington

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Smooth B	M J Sanchez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	All That Magic	N Juarez

* EXACTA: 1,2,4,10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,10/1,2,3,4,10/2,4,10
COMMENTS: NOBODY LISTENS should be in contention right away and tends to make powerful mid race moves. TALENTED MAN is likely to be as good if not better in his second start after a layoff. ROSES FOR DEBRA has excellent turf breeding and ran slightly faster fractions in her last race. BEREN tied for the highest last race speed figure and has a blistering workout between races.

RACE #9 $100,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $100,000 ALPHABET SOUP HANDICAP

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	7	Buy Land and See	M J Sanchez
PLACE	6-1	1	Fore Harp	F Pennington
SHOW	7-2	11	You Must Chill	J Rodriguez
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Market Maven	R Silvera

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	King Kumbalay	A Adorno
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Dee Jay	T Conner

* EXACTA: 7/1,2,11,3
* TRIFECTA: 7/1,2,11/1,2,3,6,11
COMMENTS: BUY LAND AND SEE is undefeated in three at Parx and has three wins with a second in four at the distance. FORE HARPs trainer Robert Reid wins at 36 percent going sprint to sprint to route. YOU MUST CHILL hit the board in eight of 10 at the distance. MARKET MAVEN improved his internal race numbers from start to finish in his most recent effort.

RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 PARX DIRT MILE STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Gunite	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-2	4	Nimitz Class	P Lopez
SHOW	8-1	7	Dr B	F Pennington
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Dr Ardito	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Civil War	L M Ocasio
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Mish	T Conner

* EXACTA: 4,5/2,4,5,7
* TRIFECTA: 4,5/2,4,5,7/2,4,5,7
COMMENTS: GUNITE ran the highest last race speed figure and might add to it in the third start after a layoff. NIMITZ CLASS ran much better early pace numbers in his last and usually has strong late pace. DR B chased some swift fractions last out and probably will not see that here today. DR ARDITO is coming off his best race following a layoff. He could be better in round two off the bench but is also a bounce candidate.

RACE #11 $400,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:35 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $400,000 GALLANT BOB STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	10	Gordian Knot	M J Sanchez
PLACE	10-1	1	Ninetyprcentmaddie	P Lopez
SHOW	5-2	9	Ryvit	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Praetorian Guard	D Haddock

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Nautical Star	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Damons Mound	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 1,6,9,10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,9,10/1,9,10/1,5,6,9,10
COMMENTS: GORDIAN KNOT is undefeated in a pair at the distance and neither were all that close. NINETYPRCENTMADDIE could be overlooked due to recent form but has won four of eight at Parx. RYVIT ran better pace numbers from gate to wire in his last and has a nice workout since. PRAETORIAN GUARD improved a lot both of his second starts off the sidelines like today.

RACE #12 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $1M COTILLION STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Pretty Mischievous	T Gaffalione
PLACE	12-1	1	Foggy Night	F Geroux
SHOW	5-1	2	Ceiling Crusher	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Occult	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Just Katherine	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	9	Majestic Creed	M J Sanchez

* EXACTA: 3/1,2,5 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/1,2,5,6,9/1,2,5
COMMENTS: PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS has been sidelined for a little bit but has won all three of her first up off the break races. FOGGY NIGHT finished first or second in nine of her 10 races which includes a Grade III win. CEILING CRUSHER could go wire to wire with early speed in a race filled with stalkers. OCCULT has been off since late July but has plenty of good works getting prepped for today.

RACE #13 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:10 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $1M PA DERBY GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Saudi Crown	F Geroux
PLACE	12-1	6	Daydreaming Boy	D Haddock
SHOW	3-1	11	Reincarnate	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Scotland	J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Il Miracolo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	Magic Tap	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 3,5,6,11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,6,11/3,6,11/3,5,6,10,11
COMMENTS: SAUDI CROWN went above 100 on the speed gun in three of his four starts and has a few bullet works getting ready for another strong performance. DAYDREAMING BOY has run his best at Parx and when he is close to the pace. Both places are where he should be today. REINCARNATE could get to the front in a race filled with stalker. He might stay there with the right fractions. SCOTLAND is a consistent high end performer and could benefit from a cutback in distance.

RACE #14 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 WICKED SIGHT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	9	Wicked Sight	F Geroux
PLACE	4-1	1	Comedy Act	R Silvera
SHOW	8-1	7	Our Uptown Girl	A Y Nunez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Cabra Chica	Y C Ramos

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	12	Decoupage	J Correa
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	13	Shero	L M Ocasio

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:15 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 23, 2023

Sep. 21, 2023

Analysis Top contenders:
A decent field of nine three year old filly sprinters signs on here, with six of the nine having won or having finished second in their most recent races and with one of the other two having won one race before last. The most important factor in this race is EARLY PACE, because if all nine go, there’s little doubt three horses which appear to absolutely need the lead for their best chances, maybe four, will hook up early and tire late to set up a pair of key stalkers and closers. The first of the group of horses with that need-the-lead style are Yesternight (1), who gets the rail and who has had the lead in three of her four career starts, so it is likely jockey Graham will have to send. It must be noted that in her one start where she did not have the lead early, a win on July 14, she got the seven post and that enabled the jockey to bide his time in the opening quarter while fourth before moving to lead. Its unlikely Yesternight will be afforded that option from the rail. The next is B G Warrior (4), who wired the field on turf three weeks ago and who earned her other two wins, on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, leading from start to finish. She’s also led from the start in three of her other last 11 races, before tiring, and she wears blinkers so if very likely to try to lead once again. Lady Radler (5) rounds out the trio of “early” pace types, having earned all four wins leading from the start. She too wears blinkers and must be sent hard from the opening bell. There’s also a question about Norah G (8), who won her last two races leading from start to finish. She earned her first two wins from off the pace so from an outside post like the one Yesternight got in her only off-the-pace win, Norah G can’t be ruled out as having a shot.
Top Contenders:
Still, under almost any scenario I can imagine, Alexa Lou (9), and to a lesser extent Twice as Sweet (7) comprise the bulk of the probability to win. Alexa Loureturned from nine months off, four weeks ago, and picked up where she had left off last November, with a win. She beat older horses in that race and moves to three year olds only here, so combined with making her second start off a layoff can easily improve off a 96 Equibase Speed Figure effort which is the fastest last race figure (on dirt) by any horse in the field, AND faster than the 90 figure earned by the winner of the Audubon Oaks last month, who does not run here, but Oaks second and third place finishers, Flamand (3) and Santa Fe Gold (6) do run here and ran more slowly than Alexa Lou. Alexa Lou gets a good post to avoid any early traffic and can watch the speed duel unfold before rallying to get up by a neck or so as she did in her last two races.
Twice as Tweet (7) ran nearly as well winning a dirt sprint on June 14 as Alexa Loudid winning that dirt sprint near the end of August. Twice as Sweet won that race, also versus older similar to Alexa Lou, by nearly five lengths after sitting off the pace in second in the early stages, and she’s won from third early and closed from seventh to second in her most recent race, a sprint on turf. She too gets a great post to watch the pacesetters battle and it must be noted that last race, on July 16, produced two strong next out winners, including one recently at Churchill Downs on the main track.
Bets:
Win: We should consider a win bet on Alexa Lou (9) at odds of 2 to 1 or more and ALSO (because morning line favorites Yesternight and Flamand are vulnerable) consider a win bet on Twice as Sweet (7) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas: Alexa Lou (9) and Twice As Sweet (7) over Alexa Lou (9), Twice As Sweet (7), Yesternight (1), Flamand (3), Santa Fe Gold (6) and Norah G (8).

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:16 AM

RIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

Remington Park - Race #6

#5 Ole Crazy Bone	His first turf try was pretty solid, and I like that he should be able to find a decent spot within just a few lengths of whatever pace turns up. Looks like the one to beat to me.
#2 From the Heart	He has been pretty honest through three starts and is probably capable of something just a touch better than he showed last time out. Obvious chance today at maybe a slightly better price.
#6 Noise Complaint	He stepped up really well last out to nearly score at 17/1, and I think his versatile running style will serve him well in a race with a potentially murky pace scenario.
Race Summary	Ole Crazy Bone and From the Heart look like the right pair to settle this one, and maybe Noise Complaint finds his way on some reach tickets. Looking for players with a little bit of potential to sit a slightly tactical trip today.

Remington Park - Race #8

#1 Low Euro Cat	She went pretty evenly in the debut run but probably has some upside off that, and I wonder if working with a bit more ground will help her move up today after the 5f debut try.
#7 Short Stretch	This filly is already starting to look like she might be a fun kind of 7f/miler type, and she hasn't run a bad one yet through two starts. Wouldn't shock.
#9 Devious Diva	She got past a few of them late while never making a serious move in the debut run, but it'd be no surprise to see her build on that run with something a bit more formidable today.
Race Summary	Few logical players on paper here, and I think Low Euro Cat can find a bit better after chasing a well-meant winner last time around. Price might be just appealing enough.

Remington Park - Race #9

#8 Bender	His recent form had been just a touch light to be competitive out in California, but his local debut last out produced a sharp finishing effort, and I think the race flow can be at least honest tonight.
#6 Blue Boon	He's up in class after punching home off the layoff, and he held his form in the second start back last year after turning in a similarly big effort when running fresh. Thinking he might do the same today.
#3 Right Tone	Really like the way he moved up off the claim when getting in a more comfortable spot with the locals, and this doesn't seem like an insurmountable class hike off that kind of run. That said, the class and footing are a little bit of a question. Would want a fair price to think about it.
Race Summary	Bender probably offers an OK price in this spot while rising off a decent run, and I could see him leaving himself a slight bit less work to do today.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:16 AM

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#3 BONMATI (5-1)	Swung wide in stretch with momentum, got beat 1-1/4 lengths sprinting.
#2 GOATS ON A TREE (8-5)	Showed pulse in pair of MSW turf sprints in New York, tries new game.
#5 FUMBLEROOSKI (5-1)	Much improved effort on all-weather surface in first long-distance test.
Race Summary	BONMATI, in tight at the start, advanced steadily from the far turn to the finish in a well-bet debut. She adds blinkers, stretches out and is clearly the value play among the favorites. Bet to win and place and play a 3/2,5/ALL trifecta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#7 SHEZ SPEIGHTFUL (9-5)	Merits top billing off last two starts and off the D’Angelo re-claim.
#1 RIGBY (12-1)	Bid 4-wide in both GP starts at this level, gets weight off, use in gimmick wagers.
#5 AMOR Y CONTROL (5-2)	Dueled and ran second in pair of photo finishes recently at this level.
Race Summary	SHEZ SPEIGHTFUL takes a magnified class drop in a field that is a combined 13-for-136. She ran second for $20,000 two back after breaking last, rallying between rivals in the stretch and galloping out in front. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#7 BIG AND CLASSY (8-5)	Alert start the key in bid for eight win and $200k bankroll this year.
#3 AVANT GLORY (4-1)	Held gamely for second after top one passed by, runs well fresh.
#4 BIG DADDY DAVE (9-2)	Loves Gulfstream, loomed boldly but flattened out in latest, changes riders.
Race Summary	Can’t go beyond BIG AND CLASSY, who broke last two starts back, awaited room on the turn and slipped through on the rail to overpower AVANT GLORY for his seventh win of the year. He ran second in a follow-up try against Grade II-winning millionaire Long Range Toddy. Bet to win and place.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:16 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Liberty -10 over Florida Int'l

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:16 AM

Free play from Totals4U

Early Saturday Free Selection: Kentucky Wildcats/Vanderbilt Commodores under 49 1/2

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:16 AM

Free play from #1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Play: Georgia Southern Golden Eagles - 6

**ConleyPicks** · 09-23-2023, 09:17 AM

Free play from Easy Money Sports

Free Early Saturday Football Selection From Lee
RUTGERS +24

Saturday 9/23/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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