Saturday 9/23/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 20 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
LSU (NCAAF)

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#383 ASA PLAY ON SMU +7 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Now that this line sits at 7, we'll jump on SMU. We've been impressed by the Mustangs this year with their only loss coming 28-11 at Oklahoma. That final score was very deceiving as SMU as the first downs and total yardage were about dead even. SMU had 2 turnovers to 0 for the Sooners. TCU is 2-1 on the season but their defense is vulnerable. The Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in 12 of their last 15 games vs FBS opponents, including SMU who put up 34 on TCU last season. SMU has won 2 of the last 3 in this rivalry and their lone loss was by 8 points last year vs a TCU team that ended up making it to the National Championship game. The yardage was about dead even in that meeting last year but 2 SMU turnovers led directly to 14 TCU points. That was the difference. SMU can score and keep this close so we'll take the full TD here.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY Western Kentucky/Troy Under 57.5

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Free Play: TCU -6.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1, 1-2 ATS) clash with the SMU Mustangs (2-1, 2-1 ATS) for the coveted Iron Skillet. The odds favor the Horned Frogs, granting them a 6.5-point advantage, while the over/under for the game stands at 62.5 points. TCU boasts a -275 ML favorite status, while SMU enters as a +210 underdog on the ML.

I believe TCU has made a significant turnaround this season. Chandler Morris had an impressive performance, passing for 314 yards and notching 2 TD's, helping the Horned Frogs secure a convincing 36-13 win during Houston's inaugural Big 12 appearance. This victory marked TCU's second consecutive W following their initial season setback against Deion's Colorado.

SMU won their opener against LATech but got blown out by OU 2 weeks ago 28-11, turnovers and a blocked put were their downfall. Then they knocked Prairie View around 69-0, but we're not going to worry about that!

I think TCU will watch the tape and know exactly where the SMU weaknesses are for Saturday. TCU's defense is better than SMU's, and I'd argue their offense is better too.

Some trends to note, SMU are jaw droppingly 2-18 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the Big 12, and they're 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. On the other side TCU is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games, and they're also 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home. Our models have them winning by 8-13pts over SMU. I don't see SMU being able to have the firepower to cover in this game.

We're backing TCU in this spot on Saturday.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Ohio/Bowling Green UNDER 45

The Ohio Bobcats are a dead nuts UNDER team this season. They are 4-0 to the UNDER with combined scores of 33, 37, 27 and 17 points thus far. They have an elite defense that is allowing just 11.8 points per game, 244 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Now they take on a very weak Bowling Green offense that doesn't know who they will be starting at quarterback yet this week.

The Falcons managed just 6 points and 205 total yards in their 31-6 loss to Michigan last week. Starter Connor Bazelak sat out the Michigan game with a leg injury, backup Camden Orth had to leave with an injury in the 2nd quarter, and walk-on Hayden Timosciek was forced into duty. He was awful to say the least with a pair of interceptions and only 33 yards on his 10 pass attempts.

But I have been impressed with this Bowling Green defense this season as they limited Michigan to just 312 total yards and held a high-powered Liberty attack to 391 total yards. That's a Liberty team that is running it up on everyone else. Liberty had 526 total yards against New Mexico State and 55 points and 569 total yards against Buffalo.

This Ohio offense has been very disappointing this season with big hype due to having what was expected to be the best QB in the MAC in Kurtis Rourke. But he clearly isn't 100% healthy in the early going and it has shown. Rourke has led the Bobcats to just 16.8 points per game, 328 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through four games. They actually had their best offensive numbers in the game he got injured early and had to leave in the opener against San Diego State.

Ohio is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine conference road games. Bowling Green is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games after scoring 14 points or fewer. The Bobcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games vs. bad teams that win 25% to 40% of their games. These are also two of the slowest teams on offense with Bowling Green ranking 126th out of 133 teams in seconds per play and Ohio ranking 92nd. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

7* NCAAF Ole Miss/Alabama Free Pick

PLAY ON ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -7

I'm going to lay the 7-points with Alabama at home against Ole Miss. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing dips under 7, so it might be worth waiting. I just wanted to get the play out early for people to see. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot on the Crimson Tide. Last week's 17-3 win on the road against USF was about as bad as Alabama could have played.

Two big things to keep in mind with that performance. One they experimented at the QB position to see if they couldn't get a spark from their backups. It didn't work and they are going back to their starter in Jalen Milroe. He's not at the level of recent Alabama QBs, but without a doubt their best option.

The other thing to note was that being a brutal spot for the Crimson Tide. They were coming off that crushing loss to Texas at home and had this game on deck. Not a big surprise that they just went through the motions against a far inferior team. Saban will be all over these guys in practice and I expect them to come out and easily win this game by double-digits at home against Ole Miss. Give me the Crimson Tide -7!

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on BAMA-6.5

The public can't wait to fade Alabama this week, and it's easy to see why. They lost at home versus Texas, and then they just barely beat South Florida last week. Well I certainly wasn't surprised by their loss to Texas, with a Non-Conference Game of the Year on the Longhorns. I expected Texas to win that game, so when they rallied in the fourth quarter I wasn't shocked. The thing is, Ole Miss ain't Texas, and Jaxon Dart ain't Quinn Ewers. Before we completely condemn Jalen Milroe as a failure (after 3 starts), let's take a look at Jaxon Dart's first three starts at Ole Miss. He averaged less than 200 yards per game on less than 65 percent passing with three TDs and two INTs in games against Georgia Tech, Central Arkansas and Troy. There are some rumors floating around that Milroe didn't sit on the bench last week because of poor play, but rather serving a silent suspension for a poor attitude. Lets see how he responds after Saban named him the starter moving forward. The Rebels come in 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS, but a close look at those games doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. They were losing to Tulane through the first three quarters, and only a comedy of errors in the final minute allowed them to come back and cover against the Green Wave. Sure they beat Georgia Tech by 25 last week, but Haynes King threw for over 300 yards and he accounted for three TDs. The Rebels allowed the Georgia Tech offense to rack up 474 total yards of offense. I think you have to be quite naive to think the Crimson Tide are going to look anything like they did last week in Tampa. Roll Tide!

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE PLAY: Auburn Tigers+9 -105

Game 407.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

My friends, I feel this matchup is one and most interesting matchups on the board this Saturday in college football. As we enter Conference competition, we see Auburn travel to College Station to take on Texas A&M. It’s been well publicized that the Tigers have taken six of the 11 meetings between these two teams since the Aggies joined the SEC. Now my friends, this does include last year’s win and cover at home, 13-10. We can break down both team’s performances thus far. I mean, Auburn is 3-0 straight up, going 1-2 against the spread. They opened the season destroying UMass, then got a win and no cover on the road at Cal, only to return home and blow up Sanford, but still failed cover the huge spread. On the other hand, Texas A&M opened the campaign shredding New Mexico. They then went on the road in a game to take an ugly loss at the hands of Miami. Last week, they bounced back to do what they should’ve done against Louisiana Monroe and crushed them. It’s the step up in class against the Hurricanes that caught my eye. Granted, the Tigers have not played the same level of opponent yet. But this is still a team that has snagged five takeaways already. Granted, the Aggies don’t turn the ball over too often. But their defense doesn’t create turnovers either. Auburn has turned the ball over quite a bit. But this is the first opportunity to show what they are made of. And head coach, Hugh Freeze will have them primed, prepped, and ready to go here. Quarterback, Payton Thorne is a dual-threat. He along with several able, ball-carriers in the backfield for Auburn will keep the Texas A&M defense honest. While the Aggies do have an explosive passing attack, the Tigers have shown their secondary has improved from a season ago. Granted, this is a big step up in class for them, but at the same token, they still played well slowing down their opponents passing game. Playing in College Station is never easy. But a season ago the Aggies were just 2-5 ATS on their own field. I feel this is way too many points for Texas A&M to lay against a very game, formidable foe. Take Auburn. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Dan Kaiser

There is a surprisingly huge battle in the PAC-12 when the Colorado Buffaloes head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Oregon Ducks. Colorado comes into this game ranked 19th with a 3-0 record. This game will go a long way in proving the Buffs are for real or the first three games were a by-product of playing bad teams. They are coming off a 43-35 double-overtime win over Colorado State. Shedeur Sanders has thrown for 1,251 yards with 10 touchdowns and an interception. The defense needs to get better as they have allowed 91 points in three games. They will also be without two-way player Travis Hunter. Oregon comes in as the 10th-ranked team in the country. Bo Nix has remade himself in Oregon and has thrown for 893 yards with 8 interceptions and zero touchdowns. The Ducks have allowed just 47 points over the three contests. Colorado's offense has been explosive to start the season but I also think that was a product of who they played and now they will be facing a very good defense. The Colorado defense has been torched by teams that you would not say are on the same level as Oregon. Oregon has experienced defensive players in the secondary that will give Colorado more trouble than Colorado State did. The bloom comes off the Buffalo rose in this one. but they keep it close

Play on Colorado+21 -106 This is a free play.

[ConleyPicks]

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On UCLA vs Utah under 52

[ConleyPicks]

Alex Smart

Free Play: Kansas-9.5

BYU is in an emotional letdown spot after a huge win vs Arkansas last time out despite of being outgunned 424-281. It must also be noted that BYU has had huge problems rushing the ball, which is not a good omen here today. KANSAS is 13-4 ATS L/17. in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game

KU Coach Lance Leipold, has seen significant improvement in his team since taking over and is off to a 3-0 start in 2023. Also it may come as a surprise to alot of college football fans but the Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG.

Key Trends: Leipold at home in his FBS career with KU, is 15-3-1 ATS when coming off a victory , including and has only failed to cover once in 16 games when coming off an away win, including 10-0 ATS when coming off consecutive victories.

CFB avorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 23-5 ATS L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Kansas to cover

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play on Rice -2.5* The Rice Owls have played better than expected so far this year. Rice gave Texas a tough game for a little more than a half. They then pulled a big upset against Houston. Rice threw for 401 yards in that win over Houston. JT Daniels is a big upgrade from the quarterbacks they have had, and Rice has good wide receivers as well.

The Owls defense has been much better at not giving up the big play this year. They are 51st in explosiveness allowed. In the past years this was a big weakness. USF is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive success rate. If the Bulls can't break big plays, I think they'll struggle to keep up with Rice here.

Give USF credit for playing really hard against Alabama last week. Still, that felt like their Super Bowl and Alabama is a very physical team. That makes this a difficult spot for them. Rice is coming off an easy win over an FCS opponent.

Take Rice here.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #355 Over 36 in Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (4p.m., Saturday, September 23 FS1) You do not find many totals this low in college football and we feel one of these teams with have a scoring outburst. It appears Brock Purdy covered up a bunch of bad coaching at Iowa State and Matt Campbell is no longer a hot coaching commodity. He needs to get this offense on track and they need to make major adjustments for this game. The Pokes are coming off a bad loss last time out to South Alabama and they scored only 7 points in that game. Look for one team to reach the high twenties and that should all this game to easily go over the posted total. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring plays in basketball, baseball, and football. Sign-up now and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Rice -2.5 1.1% Free Play

I expect a bit of a let down from South Florida on Saturday following their strong effort against Alabama at home. You could say the same thing happened to Alabama after a loss against Texas as they went through the motions holding on late to a 17-3 win. Rice on the other hand has back to back strong performances upsetting Houston and putting up 59 against Texas Southern and you could say things are starting to click for JT Daniels.