Saturday 9/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:02 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/30/23

September 30, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Tapatio Leo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Double Jab; 9-Catemaco.

Forecast: Tapatio Leo is unproven on grass, but if he can transfer his main track form to turf in this first level allowance dash for Cal-breds, the Peter Miller-trained gelding can score right back after graduating three weeks ago with a powerful speed figure at Del Mar. The son of Stay Thirsty represents inside speed, and if he leaves cleanly from the rail he should be able to outfoot this group every step of the way. He’s generously listed as the second choice on the morning line at 3-1 but it wouldn’t surprise us if he goes favored.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Park City; 4-Sippin N Kissin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast:: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming miler is a bottom-of-the-barrel affair with nothing to trust. Tread lightly. Park City is less exposed than the other contenders, so we’ll reluctantly go with him on top. He easily disposed of a maiden $20,000 group at Del Mar earlier this month in just his sixth career start while earning a career top speed figure, and from his inside draw the Dan Blacker-trained sophomore is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip. He’ll need another forward move to win but may have it in him. On pure form, Sippin N Kissin is the one to beat, but his overall record (1-for-26, winless in eight starts at Santa Anita) combined with his grinding, one-paced style, makes him impossible to back with any degree of confidence. Yet, he actually could win. In a race that is best left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-North East Star
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: With the overnight scratching of Make It Snow, North East Star inherits the role as the strong favorite in this turf sprint for older fillies and mares. She lacks a true turn of foot and has encountered self-caused trouble because of that in her first three local outings, but if she can mount a rally and not get stopped, the Irish-bred sophomore in Phil D’Amato’s barn should earn her diploma in a rather lackluster race for the level.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bartholdy; 6-Tejon Pass
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

ForecastThere appears to be two main players in this maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, with the preference on top to the promising first timer Bartholdy. The son of Mendelssohn breezed a furlong in a quick :10 flat at the OBS April sale before bringing $300,000 through the ring, and his local drills have been equally if not more impressive. An exquisite mover with a long, athletic stride, he should be plenty fit and ready for a big try first crack out of the box, so if he makes no mistakes the Simon Callaghan-trained colt should be very difficult to beat. He’s listed at 8-1 on the morning line but we’re not counting on that. Tejon Pass is the best of those that have raced and can be expected to produce a significant forward move after drawing the dreaded rail (and getting left at the gate) in his debut at Del Mar in a fast race won by Slider earlier this month. The son of Justify rallied wide, finished with interest to be a respectable fourth, and could make a serious run for it if he leaves with his field. Mike Smith stays aboard, and the Peter Miller barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Impact Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Cornelia Fort.

Forecast: Impact Warrior should outclass this field. The Irish import finished an excellent second in her U.S. debut at this level in July at Del Mar and then lost nothing in defeat when third behind Anisette in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 in her most recent outing last month. Back with allowance company and switching to top grass rider Umberto Rispoli, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly has a distinct edge in the speed figure department and is likely to verify her short-priced favorite’s role.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Dr. Schivel; 3-Arabian Lion; 4-Fort Bragg; 8-Speed Boat Beach
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Sir Atticus; 9-Spirit of Makena.

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship is highly contentious and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Defending race champion Dr. Schivel is the likely choice and one to beat. He can be a bit lazy in the morning, so his recent drills don’t point him out, but he’s always loved the Santa Anita main track, so you have to expect he’ll deliver one of his better runs today. Meanwhile, trainer Bob Baffert has three legitimate entrants, and while we’re not sure if all three will actually start, each has a right to be included somewhere on your ticket should they do. Arabian Lion was below form when a fading third in the tragedy-marred Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 over a wet track at Saratoga but his sizzling score in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 (109 Beyer figure) two runs back was simply outstanding. However, his workouts in the interim have been good but not great, so we’re not quite sure he’s back to where he was. Stable mates Speed Boat Beach and Fort Bragg have credentials as well; the former has been burning up the track in preparation for his comeback, and since he won his debut we know he can fire fresh, while the latter has been primarily a two-turn runner throughout his career but this shortening in trip makes him intriguing.
*

RACE 7: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Sassy Prancelot; 11-Safa; 4-Asada Fries
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sassy Prancelot has been training exclusively at Los Alamitos for her debut so we have no workout videos to lean on but based on her connections and the relative strength (or weakness) of this maiden juvenile filly state-bred turf sprint field she is enticing enough to rate top billing. Bred to win early and attracting top rider Juan Hernandez, the daughter of the good filly sire Sir Prancelot shows a decent series of workout times for trainer Phil D’Amato, and in a field where there is nothing to embrace among those that have raced we’ll make an educated guess while hoping to get near her morning line of 6-1. Safa and Asada Fries, distant two-three finishes behind Mirinda in a fast, highly rated dirt sprint at this level, have a look if they can repeat the same kind of their effort over the local lawn.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Slow Down Andy; 2-Defunded
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Slow Down Andy turned in a valiant effort when third in the Pacific Classic-G1 earlier this month, doing as well as he could over a 10 furlong distance that might have been a tad far for him. Today, he cuts back to a mile and one-eighth over a main track we know he likes, so the son of Nyquist should have every chance to secure the first Grade-1 win of his career. The pace projects to be moderate, so we’re expecting the Doug O’Neill-trained colt to be within striking range and have every chance. Defunded is the Awesome Again S.-G1 defending champion and a five time winner over the Santa Anita dirt track. He was off the board in his two Del Mar outings but could easily snap back to top form over a main track he clearly prefers. He switches to speed rider Edwin Maldonado, so we’re expecting to see him on or near the lead throughout.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Lane Way; 7-I’m a Gambler; 2-Bran
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Lane Way found five furlongs too sharp when a non-threatening fifth in the Green Flash H.-G3 at Del Mar earlier this month but with benefit of the extra furlong and one half of the Hillside layout the son of Into Mischief can regain his winning form. Successful in the Clocker’s Corner Stakes over this course and distance two runs back last winter, the Richard Mandella-trained gelding gets conditions that are made to order for his style, and with two sharp workouts since raced we’re expecting his best effort to be delivered. I’m a Gambler was an excellent turf sprinter overseas and this route-to-sprint maneuver may be just what he needs to regain his best form. The Mark Glatt-trained is a strong fit on speed figures and should be rolling late. Bran was a bit rusty when unplaced in the Green Flash in his first start in nearly a year. The John Sadler-trained French-bred is a two time winner under these conditions, and with any type of forward move he’ll be a major factor from the furlong pole to the wire.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Astronomer; 4-Hong Kong Harry
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Twist.

Forecast: We’re not quite sure that Hong Kong Harry is as good as he was last year – he’s winless this year and has failed as the favorite in two of his last three starts – so while we’ll certainly concede that he’s good enough to win this year’s edition of the City of Hope Mile S.-G2 with his best race, we’ll use him but certainly not single him. A listed stakes winner at two, the lightly raced and developing Astronomer offers a reasonable gamble at 6-1 on the morning. He’s unproven at this level, but with just six starts (and three wins) the Simon Callaghan-trained son of Air Force Blue has a high ceiling and could be ready to successfully take this hike in class. In a race that projects to have moderate early fractions, he should be on or near the lead throughout and have his chance to pull off a mild surprise when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home.

*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:03 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 30, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card ready to roll. The $1.00 Pick 5 has a $23,892 carryover and an estimated $100,000 pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Tobins Secret (3-1)-Dropped and popped, now bumps up but this is a competitive level. Recent form has been sharp and should get the on the point and could be tough to catch.
7-Waitforever N (3-1)-Beaten chalk drops in search of a win. The Rhoades trainee will be steered by Luke Ebersole instead of Aaron Merriman, that and the post draw should help the price.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

2-Yankee Nudge (2-1)-Delaware shipper should get a close-up seat off the gate. The 3-year-old likes to win and should be a player even though will be facing a couple of mares tonight.
3-Mississippidragon (10-1)-Has been a bridesmaid 5 times this year but has posted only 1 win in 25 starts. Myers takes the lines and maybe a new set of hands will help. Will reach for a price, has been drawing outside and should get a better trip this time.
5-Tell Kadia (12-1)-This is another who should offer a price in what could be a chalky sequence. Has missed a start and will rely on being 100% as the Clegg barn has been clicking.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Kat (8/5)-Drew the 8-hole in the 1st start in town after shipping in from the Meadows and failed to cash a check. Takes a couple of steps down and the Burke trainee should be dialed on high.
5-Lovely Munro (6-1)-Beat the NW6500 by 8.5 lengths at the Meadows as an odds-on choice. Steps up here, but could get off the gate and find a close-up seat. Best to respect at a fair price and has hit the board in 8 of 9 with 4 pictures.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

3-Carmen N The Devil (8/5)-The morning line choice should be driven aggressively and will be a small price. Leaving from post 3 shouldn't hurt, Myers can get the top and try to wire the field
6-Quite The Flirt (9-1)-Looking for a price and landed on this 3-year-old. Ships in from Aces and has Ohio connections so my take is the turns shouldn't be an issue. Doesn't win often but is competitive and with the right trip could make it interesting. Should be a large price and would spice up the gimmicks.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,7/2,3,5/2,5/3,6
Total Bet $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #6

#5 Cressons Lil Charm	She's getting a bit short on excuses, but she has some dangerous pace and has faced some winners who would probably stack up nicely enough with this kind. Think today is her day.
#4 Rough Creek	She showed brief pace before fading against cheaper in the debut run, and she should be a big price on the move to the grass with better today. Might stick around better.
#3 No Pay No Hay	She chased out wide but couldn't quite stay in the debut run, but she probably has a little upside off that try and could move forward on the new footing.
Race Summary	Cressons Lil Charm has handled the turf well enough in those last two starts, and I think her pace makes her tough with this group while making the local debut.

Remington Park - Race #8

#5 City Nights	He has some pace to get in the mix early on, and he is certainly capable of something better than what he showed last time out. Think a really nice first-jump trip could be in the cards for him.
#2 Next Revolt	He's another who should be right in the frame into the first turn, and he handled the step up to this level pretty nicely last time out. Possible, but maybe at an underlaid price?
#1 I'm Crenshaw	He sometimes bring good, grinding efforts to the table, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him land this with one of his better efforts. Not out of the question.
Race Summary	City Nights has room to bounce back today after a hard fade last out, and I'm not sure this is a super deep race for the local level, so he may not have a ton to beat if he can get back to his better stuff.

Remington Park - Race #9

#4 Abigail's Road	Solid lean for me here in the finale after a decent pace-tracking debut, and there are a few runners signed on in here with lines that suggest they'll pop some speed and stop. She might get drawn into a perfect trip to take command when that happens.
#9 My Maybelenne	Wondering if she has a little upside while moving to the turf for the first time here, as her main-track efforts have been one-paced so far. Well drawn based on the likely race flow if she likes the turf.
#6 Neptune's Grotto	She and the one drawn just outside of her both have some appeal in here on paper at first asking, so take a good look on the track and tote to get some clues.
Race Summary	Abigail's Road can be tough here with any reasonable second-out upside, as she might be able to sustain a bit of a move here with that debut run under her belt.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 TOO MANY KISSES (10-1)	Strong rally at 5-1/2F, no match for boys at 7F, capable longshot.
#3 IRISH CRYSTAL (7-2)	Showed pulse in debut at Saratoga, good works locally since then.
#4 PARTY IS OVER (2-1)	Shook clear to brief lead before deep closer passed by, picks up 11 pounds.
Race Summary	TOO MANY KISSES steadied early, sat patient at the quarter pole and closed with a 6-wide rush to miss in a photo finish against a 5-to-2 first-time starter two starts back. She took on the boys next out and is back with her own kind today. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#6 ONE LAS OLAS (2-1)	Tons best against lesser at bullring, added ground a plus on return to turf.
#3 GOLDIENESS (9-5)	The other 3yo in field has wins at Laurel, Aqueduct and Parx in last seven starts.
#9 POUNDING MUSIC (4-1)	Finished in money in 11 of 15 on lawn, good for six-figure bankroll.
Race Summary	ONE LAS OLAS was better than her winning margin at Timonium’s half-mile oval indicates. She advanced quickly on the rail into the third turn of the one-mile race but was bottled up in traffic until she squeezed through a mid-stretch opening to win going away. She’s a solid win and place bet if she handles the transition to turf.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#5 DEEDS OF LOVE (7-2)	Dead game off 5-wide trip in the slop, just missed in three-peat attempt.
#6 LIQUIDATOR (5-2)	Finished first or second in 6 of last 7 starts on Laurel Park main track.
#9 NORTHERN GLOW (2-1)	Unwound too late as the favorite in same spot, starts fresh.
Race Summary	DEEDS OF LOVE, 5-wide most of the way, surged between rivals in late stretch but came up a head short of three consecutive victories to start her career. She tries a long sprint for the first-time with second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - September 30

Sep. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 TAPATIO LEO

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Tapatio Leo	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	2	Double Jab	U Rispoli
SHOW	20-1	11	Spiritual Advisor	K Frey
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Uncle John	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Mr. Disrespectful	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Geezer	T J Pereira

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX

RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SIPPIN N KISSIN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Sippin N Kissin	H I Berrios
PLACE	5-2	2	Carpe Bellum	J Valdivia Jr.
SHOW	5-2	1	Park City	J Bravo
WILD CARD	20-1	3	Take Charge Curly	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Rich Gold	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Kentucky Bourbon	G Franco

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 SPAIN MOONLIGHT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	7	Spain Moonlight	J J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	1	Thirty Carats	R A Vazquez
SHOW	7-5	4	North East Star	A Fresu
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Interplay	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Storming Gray	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Guitar Girl	E Payeras

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #4 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Wynstock	J J Hernandez
PLACE	9-5	6	Tejon Pass	M E Smith
SHOW	5-1	3	Maximum Capacity	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Bartholdy	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Colorado Cruiser	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Bolt At Midnight	R Gonzalez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	12-1	4	Cornelia Fort	H I Berrios
PLACE	15-1	9	Shocking Grey	D A Herrera
SHOW	8-5	2	Impact Warrior	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Yerwanthere	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Luminiferous	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Speed Lane	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	2	Dr. Schivel	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	3	Arabian Lion	E A Maldonado
SHOW	6-1	9	Spirit of Makena	J Bravo
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Visitant	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Sir Atticus	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Fort Bragg	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

RACE #7 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	11	Safa	T J Pereira
PLACE	4-1	4	Asada Fries	H I Berrios
SHOW	6-1	7	Petit Filet	R S Ramirez
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Cocktail Cutie	M Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Sassy Prancelot	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Wailea Sunset	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Defunded	E A Maldonado
PLACE	5-2	3	Slow Down Andy	M Gutierrez
SHOW	4-1	7	National Treasure	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Stilleto Boy	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Senor Buscador	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Skinner	M E Smith

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 8:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Bran	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	6	Lane Way	M E Smith
SHOW	15-1	10	Packs a Wahlop	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Sumter	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Im A Gambler	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Noble Reflection	M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 3/6/10 BOX

RACE #10 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	8	Cathkin Peak	U Rispoli
PLACE	5-2	4	Hong Kong Harry	J J Hernandez
SHOW	3-1	7	Twist	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	8-1	2	War At Sea	V Espinoza

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Hit the Road	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Il Bellator	A Gomez

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Golden Gate Tip Sheet - September 30

Sep. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $4,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 GETEM TIGER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Getem Tiger	S R Amador
PLACE	7-2	3	Maycee Jo	E A Roman
SHOW	6-1	5	Blushing Bay	C Martinez
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Miss Ski	C Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Going to Shabooms	A Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	1	Big Gift	K Radke

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #2 $15,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	2	Shanghai Mist	S Rivera
PLACE	5-1	3	Airkita	E A Roman
SHOW	8-1	8	Blossoming	W Antongeorgi III
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Misty Cat	C Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Hollywood Mistress	K Radke
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Lyinatthebar	E Garcia

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX

RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:49 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Dawn At Last	E A Roman
PLACE	8-1	5	Jays Angel	S Rivera
SHOW	4-1	1	Bacalar	C Herrera
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Bold Mistress	L M Jimenez Aburto

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Zakkiyyah	H Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Lions Lair	A Castellanos

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #4 $31,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 CALLHERCONTESSA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Callhercontessa	E A Roman
PLACE	6-1	7	Princesa Del Tigre	A Chavez
SHOW	15-1	3	Proof of Jazz	A Castellanos
WILD CARD	8-1	6	A Crown for Kitten	A Espinoza

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Councilwoman Jilly	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 2	9-5	1	Unfaithful Ways	W Antongeorgi III

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #5 $10,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:54 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	4	Cry Me a Runner	I Orozco
PLACE	7-2	3	Assuredly	A Espinoza
SHOW	8-1	1	Patsy Montana	B Pena
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Harbors Rose	E A Roman

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Getaway Charm	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Not Now Im Bizzie	C Martinez

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:26 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	1	Brookys Gal	C Herrera
PLACE	5-2	10	Valence	B Pena
SHOW	5-1	5	Acclaimed Preacher	F T Alvarado
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Ms Limoncello	A Espinoza

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Vhagar	A Chavez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	R Sweet Candy	L M Jimenez Aburto

* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/10 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX

RACE #7 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:57 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 CRYSTAL PROOF

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	1	Crystal Proof	E A Roman
PLACE	5-2	4	Tura Lura	A Chavez
SHOW	3-1	3	Morning Addiction	A Espinoza
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Majestic Oops	F Duran

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Swift Nonni	S R Amador
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Charlotte Harbor	L M Jimenez Aburto

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #8 $33,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Imgonnabesomebody	A Chavez
PLACE	7-2	6	Lammas	W Antongeorgi III
SHOW	6-1	9	American Farmer	A Espinoza
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Tesoro	F Monroy

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	10	Honos Man	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Royal n Rando	F T Alvarado

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

RACE #9 $7,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-2	6	Dont Tell Hydee	E A Roman
PLACE	6-1	2	Moro First Class	H Herrera
SHOW	4-1	4	Madame Gazelle	A Chavez
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Tiz a Tiger	S Rivera

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Takes a Village	S R Amador
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Draw Near	F Monroy

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 30

Sep. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MAJOR FED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Major Fed	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	5	Shortlist	F Geroux
SHOW	20-1	6	Boise	G Saez
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Cool Rags	A Achard

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	What a Country	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Cousin Larry	C J Hernandez

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX

RACE #2 $50,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	5	Dear Lady	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	5-2	3	Sparkle of Hope	T Gaffalione
SHOW	2-1	2	Pillbox	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Harmonica	J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Magna Massa	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Terranova	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Tepeu	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Tres Soles	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	3	Royal Act	C A Torres
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Take the Charge	D Cannon

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Uninvited Guest	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Coastal Defense	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 THE PROCESS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	10	The Process	C A Torres
PLACE	10-1	9	Steeler Mischief	G Corrales
SHOW	7-2	3	Copper Missile	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Ham Sandwich	B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Dumbstruck	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Striking Sparks	A Achard

* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	8	Pursuit of Liberty	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	10	My Favorite Girl	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	3-1	12	Lady Moscato	J A Torres
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Noriskit Nobiscuit	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Thorny	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Honor Cat	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX, 12-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/10/12 BOX, 3/10/12 BOX

RACE #6 $30,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 LOVE SPELL

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Love Spell	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-2	7	Single Ruler	E Morales
SHOW	6-1	6	Carnivore	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Bucktown	C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Timely Prospect	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	3	Fightertown	J Gilligan

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #7 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:53 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Megans Clara	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	7-2	5	Your So Sillea	J Loveberry
SHOW	3-1	6	Altered Shot	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Rock Star Parking	E Esquivel

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Four Dawn	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Mercy Warren	L Machado

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	1	Ocean Pointe	J D Ramos
PLACE	5-2	7	More Than Looks	C A Torres
SHOW	6-1	11	Gaslight Dancer	J A Torres
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Noises Off	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	3	Worthington	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Desert Duke	F Geroux

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/11 BOX, 4/7/11 BOX

RACE #9 $400,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	5	Zozos	F Geroux
PLACE	7-2	2	O Besos	T Gaffalione
SHOW	3-1	3	Three Technique	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Skyro	J Graham

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Seize the Night	J K Court
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Stage Raider	B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	4	Rattle N Roll	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	5-2	9	Americanrevolution	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	3	Warrant	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Happy American	J Graham

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Trademark	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Five Star General	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX

RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	1	Athens Moon	R Gutierrez
PLACE	4-1	6	Elegant Trip	M Garcia
SHOW	15-1	12	Now That Ican Rock	E Morales
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Orbi One	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Royal Salute	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Royal Sandrin	J Talamo

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX, 12-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/12 BOX, 5/6/12 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:06 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 30, 2023

Sep. 28, 2023

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 30 | Post Time 5:29 PM Eastern
Lukas Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and Top contenders:

The race appears to go through favorite, Rattle N Roll (4), who opens at 7 to 5 odds.
But does it really?
Rattle N Roll (4) won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at this nine furlong trip in June, at odds of 8 to 5, before a half-length defeat in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in July. However, he didn’t show up as the 9 to 5 favorite last month in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, never rallying as he had in those two previous races. Was it the fact he shipped from Kentucky to New York, the different surface at Saratoga, or something else, which led to that disappointing effort? To me it really doesn’t matter, because setting aside the Foster, where the pace was blazing fast (1:10.8 for six furlongs), possibly inflating the 116 Equibase Speed Figure he earned that day, Rattle N Roll earned 106, 107, 105 and 106 figures in his other three “A” races this year. Those are NOT STANDOUT figures or efforts here, with every one of the other eight horses In this race having run as fast in at least one race this year. As such, I’m taking a stand against Rattle N Roll at a short price, and looking for value with other horses which have every bit as much probability to win, and at higher odds.
First among those is Warrant (3), who opens at 8 to 1. He’s won at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and one-half, and he’s banked $1.1 million, which compares favorably with the $1.7 million Rattle N Roll has earned as well as the $1.2 million American Revolution (9) has earned. Warrant has won at Churchill Downs and he enters the race in top form, having battled head and head down the length of the stretch in the Governor’s Cup Stakes at Remington Park last month. He takes blinkers off to perhaps help him to see his opponent compared to that last race, and he’s reunited with Florent Geroux, not only the #1 winning jockey for the Brad Cox barn, but also having ridden Warrant to victory the only last time he was in the saddle, in January. Warrant also has one very important thing in common with Rattle N Roll, in that he finished second (beaten a head) in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (last year), similar to Rattle N Roll having finished second in the Stephen Foster in July. Last but not least, Warrant gets the three post in the gate, with the two horses inside of him possessing no desire to lead. Five Star General (8) should have the lead early as he’s the quickest, which puts Geroux in the catbird seat of stalking the likely early leader before launching a bid in the stretch.
Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) are two horses I believe we must consider for win bets so we won’t be kicking ourselves after the race, as both open at double digit odds and are very competitive.
Trademark has won three of four races at Churchill Downs in his career, and has won at this nine furlong trip. He won the Schaefer Memorial Stakes in July, beating Five Star General by a length and one-half, then he led late and came up a half-length short to Whelen Springs (7), who also opens at double digit odds, in the Iselin Stakes in August. Martin Garcia rode Trademark to back to back wins last October and November including the one at this distance, with the other coming in the $300,000 Commonwealth Stakes on the main track, and the horse has excellent tactical speed so could be close to Warrant in the early stages and give that one a battle down to the wire.
Similarly, Five Star General (8) can’t be dismissed. He will be discounted by many bettors as he ships in from Washington State, but he’s a traveler, who has won at Keeneland, Evangeline Downs and Emerald Downs. He’s won at this distance, and he’s won with Lanerie in the saddle, who rides him today. With 10 wins in 30 races and over $600K in the bank, this horse is no slouch, and he put in a strong four furlong workout recently in preparation for the race, adding the likelihood he will go for the lead as he did when winning the Evangeline Mile in April. In case another horse wants the lead more than he does, that’s not a problem either, as he won the Longacres Mile after stalking in second for the first half mile.
As to the other likely betting favorite, American Revolution (9), who opens at 5 to 2, I feel the same away about his chances as I do the chances of Rattle N Roll. American Revolution won five of his first seven races, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, but that was 2021, not 2023. He went zero-for-three last year (with two seconds) and in his only start this year, in August, American Revolution finished fourth as the odds-on favorite. He did stumble in that race, but that does not really tell us if this is the same horse at the age of five who was so powerful at the age of three and he’ll have to prove it in this field, which may be problematic.
Bets:
Win: Warrant (3) can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
We can also consider win bets, for lesser amounts (because the odds will be higher) on both Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas: As Warrant finishes second (six times) as much as he wins (5 times) he is a good horse to key on exacta tickets as follows: 3 over 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
(#4 is Rattle N Roll, #5 is Trademark, #6 is Blue Devil, #7 is Whelen Springs, #8 is Five Star General, #9 is American Revolution).
Then, to maximize profit I will box Warrant with four other contenders at high odds:
Box Warrant (3) and Trademark (5), Warrant (3) and Blue Devil (6), Warrant (3) and Whelen Springs (7), Warrant (3) and Five Star General (8).
Optionally we can also play an exacta box between Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) as it would pay handsomely if it comes in.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:06 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 30

Sep. 28, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (3) Dusk (B) broke last in her debut and rallied to fourth at 6-1 and gets Irad Ortiz for a trainer that has a good second start win percentage. (7) Alette d’Oro brings a strong workout pattern to Aqueduct for her debut for a trainer that wins in New York. (1) Lu’s Redemption was entered for the grass in her first start after getting bet to 10-1. (4) Snarky flashed speed in both of her Saratoga starts and the blinkers come off after not helping last time.
8^thrace [NY, Alw 80000 N1X, 7F] – (7) Callaloo (D) was bet down from 10-1 to 6-1 but needed a race after a six-month layoff. (2) Be the Boss moved back to the turf, which is clearly his best surface, and finished second twice by narrow margins. (9) Rocket and Roll got his maiden win when he moved to face NY-breds after three starts against open company at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. (4) Locke and Key won his last two races in starter allowances against open company and changes trainers.
9^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (9) Magic Eight Ball (B) is a talented horse that has needed racing experience and was a favorite in her debut at Belmont Park. (2) Steel Lute was second in her first career start at Saratoga when she rallied for second. (5) Vino Rouge broke last in her first race at Saratoga, raced wide, and rallied to get fourth. (7) Spendalot was a $650,000 yearling purchase by the good turf and dirt sire More Than Ready.
10^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2023, 08:06 AM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 30

Sep. 28, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (2) Pillbox hasn’t raced since March but is working nicely for her comeback. (3) Sparkle of Hope will be dangerous back in a claimer. (1) Magna Massa should work out a nice ground-saving trip. (5) Dear Lady well be well-suited by dirt. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3. Exactas: 2-3 over 1-5 and 1-5 over 2-3.
4th race – (2) Value Engineer flopped in a stakes but can rebound in this spot. (3) Copper Missile comes off a solid maiden win and should be the main rival. (6) Legal Titan has speed and could be tough to catch. (7) Dumbstruck won his turf debut and merits attention. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 1-3-7-8.
5th race – (8) Pursuit of Liberty showed speed in her debut and wound up third. May not look back in this try. (3) Noriskit Nobiscuit put in a sharp work for this and should be a factor. (1) Bump in the Night could be a threat in her debut. (7) Starina seems ready for a solid effort in her debut. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.
8th race – (9) Ocean Vision ran well in his U.S. debut despite a bad start. Can take a big step forward here. (7) More Than Looks was hurt by a wide trip last time and should be a top threat here. (6) Smokey Mandate looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (11) Gaslight Dancer will be a factor if he can overcome the outside post. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 6-7-9-11.
11th race – (5) Orbi One missed by a nose last time and makes amends here. (6) Elegant Trip was third in his two starts and belongs in the exotics. (8) Metallurgic should be closing quickly in the stretch. (11) Royal Sandrin did well on synthetics and should handle turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-8-11.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2023, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

PURCHASE

Lethbridge - Race 2	Exactor / Triactor / / Superfecta / Daily Double
Starter Allowance $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $7,400 • Post: 1:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5000 OR LESS IN 2022-2023 AND HAVE NOT WON A STARTER FOR $5000. OR HIHGER OR ANY HIGHER RACE SINCE RUNNING FOR $5000 OR LESS. MAIDEN, N/W 2,3,4,5 AND LOWER STARTER WINS NOT CONSIDERED HIGHER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * THATSALOTOFBLING: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DAZZLING MIST: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ARTISAN DANCER: Today is a sprint, ho rse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	THATSALOTOFBLING	1/1	9/2
2	DAZZLING MIST	9/5	9/2
4	ARTISAN DANCER	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	ONEFINEDAY	7	10/1	Front-runner	65	57	105.0	56.6	47.6
4	ARTISAN DANCER	4	8/1	Front-runner	70	63	92.5	61.0	53.5
6	HOME EARLY SHIRLEY	6	3/1	Front-runner	65	56	52.0	43.2	29.7
2	DAZZLING MIST	2	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	75	68	78.3	68.2	65.2
5	THATSALOTOFBLING	5	1/1	Stalker	78	69	70.8	69.0	66.0
1	SATURDAY SERVICE	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	58	72.6	66.8	59.3
3	ROTTEN TO THE CORE	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	55	0.0	49.0	38.0

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2023, 09:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate FieldsPURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 2:49P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. LION'S LAIR is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LION'S LAIR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface . JAYS ANGEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DAWN AT LAST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BOLD MISTRESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	LION'S LAIR	10/1	9/2
5	JAYS ANGEL	8/1	6/1
4	DAWN AT LAST	2/1	7/1
2	BOLD MISTRESS	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DAWN AT LAST	4	2/1	Front-runner	75	76	97.2	64.5	59.0
2	BOLD MISTRESS	2	8/1	Front-runner	72	74	91.2	70.6	65.6
1	BACALAR	1	4/1	Front-runner	74	75	82.8	52.9	43.4
5	JAYS ANGEL	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	78	68.4	71.6	66.6
6	ZAKKIYYAH	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	69	64.6	62.0	53.0
3	LION'S LAIR	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	78	55.0	70.0	63.0

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2023, 09:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SA - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MIGHTY POCKET ROCKET 6/5
# 11 PECOS RIVER QUEEN 4/1
# 12 CASH TRAIN B 8/1

MIGHTY POCKET ROCKET has a decent shot to take this race. With a solid 79 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. With a very good 83 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 87, and has to be given a chance for this event. PECOS RIVER QUEEN - Could beat this group given the 75 Equibase speed fig put up in her last outing. Have to sense that this racer will make a good impression again this time out. CASH TRAIN B - Could beat this group given the 73 speed fig garnered in her last outing.

**ConleyPicks** · 09-30-2023, 09:23 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #5 - Post: 5:41pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,243 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#6 MADETHEDEAN'SLIST (ML=7/2)
#8 ROCKIN BOOTS (ML=15/1)
#9 CAN'T MAKE ME (ML=4/1)

MADETHEDEAN'SLIST - Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite pattern, getting closer with every race. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the ability to make his presence felt. This animal has increased his speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. ROCKIN BOOTS - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the capability to make his presence felt. CAN'T MAKE ME - The ROI when Roman and McShane partner up is tremendous. Mare's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. This thoroughbred has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking notice of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TAP ON BY (ML=3/1), #3 CLIMB TO GLORY (ML=5/1), #5 COUNTY JAIL (ML=6/1),

TAP ON BY - If you keep choosing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. CLIMB TO GLORY - Difficult to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. COUNTY JAIL - Hard to bet this one after not being on the lead at 1 mile and now being spotted in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. This horse hasn't had nary a single workout after running so well on Sep 9th. This racer likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't put in the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 MADETHEDEAN'SLIST to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None