Saturday 9/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Everton-157 (Soccer)

Big class difference between these clubs. Off b2b victories, the Toffees are finding their way. Luton Town continues to struggle. In what will be Sean Dyche's 500th match as manager, the Toffees won't be denied their third straight win. Luton Town is in over its head. Lay the price with the much better club, playing in front of its home fans.

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play Over 55 Buffalo/Akron * The Buffalo Bulls have played four games this year. The combined points scored in those four games: 55, 77, 82, and 83. They gave up 40 points to Fordham. They gave up 55 points against Liberty. This Buffalo defense is giving up 7.27 yards per play on the season thus far. They have given up an astounding 30 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Bulls defense is terrible.

Akron's offense should improve a lot playing against MAC defenses, especially one like Buffalo. DJ Irons is back in form now, and Irons is capable of breaking a big one at any point. He should be able to make things happen against this Buffalo defense.

I think Cole Snyder is one of the better quarterbacks in the MAC too. Buffalo is an underdog here and if they are playing from behind like I expect, I think Buffalo has a good shot to move the ball through the air against a susceptible Akron secondary.

Take the over.

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #210 Under 55.5in Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks (12p.m., Saturday, September 30 SECN) This game is once again being played at Jerry World, as Jerry Jones is an alum of the Razorbacks. Texas A&M came to play on defense last week holding Auburn to zero offensive touchdowns in route to a 27-10 victory. Expect them to dictate the style of this game again and look for the Aggies to keep the scoring in the high forties. The Razorbacks have scored 31 points each of the last two weeks and lost both games. This is not the style Sam Pittman wants to play and I look for him to sure up the defense this week. We will play the under and not worry about who will come out on top in this must win game for both sides. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring winners in MLB, WNBA, Ryder Cup Golf, and of course football. We have nailed our top play in college football three straight weeks and now is the time to jump on board with this veteran handicapper with 52 years of experience.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost consecutive one-score games, and I think this is do or die for them Saturday against Texas A&M as a result. They don't want to open 0-2 in SEC play, especially with road games at Ole Miss and at Alabama looming after this.

Arkansas had a misleading 31-38 loss to BYU two weeks ago in which they outgained the Cougars by 143 yards. They held BYU to 281 total yards, yet somehow gave up 38 points. Then last week they put forth one of the most impressive performances of the season, only losing 31-34 at LSU as 18-point underdogs in Baton Rouge.

That effort against LSU shows what the Razorbacks are capable of. Now there's a good chance they get RB Raheim Sanders back from injury after missing the past three games. He rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 per carry last season and has been out since scoring two touchdowns in the opener. Star QB KJ Jefferson would welcome back another big playmaker to this offense this week.

Speaking of injuries, Texas A&M could be without QB Conner Weigman, who exited last game against Auburn with an ankle injury and did not return. Backup Max Johnson would be a pretty big downgrade if that's the case. But I like Arkansas' chances of keeping this a one-score game and possibly pulling off the upset either way.

Texas A&M has three home wins against a very soft schedule of New Mexico, UL Monroe and a rebuilding Auburn team to pad their stats thus far. When they stepped up in class in their lone road game, they got blasted 48-33 at Miami. No question the Aggies are improved after going 5-7 last year, which isn't saying much. But Jimbo Fisher is just having a tough time getting his players to live up to the hype of these great recruiting classes.

This has been a very closely-contested series. Each of the last six meetings were decided by 11 points or fewer. Texas A&M has been favored in all six, going just 2-4 ATS. Eleven of the last 13 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer, including eight by 7 points or less. There's a good chance this one is decided by a single score as well, thus there's value in backing the Razorbacks at +7. Bet Arkansas Saturday

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on CUSE+7 -105.

The Orange have given Clemson all they can handle over the years, covering in five of the last six head to head meetings. Last year they took a double digit lead into the 4th quarter at Clemson, but injuries to QB Garrett Schraeder and RB Sean Tucker prevented them from running the ball down the stretch and protecting that lead. A soft schedule so far allows Syracuse to come into this game healthy, and that might make a huge difference here. This is a dream crusher spot for Clemson, who have no chance to reach their goals after suffering their second loss of the season last week against Florida State.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Northwestern +27.5

This looks like a flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has opened 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS so their spreads are inflated moving forward. They are coming off the 31-0 home win over Iowa on National TV in front of a White Out. Now they have to go on the road for only the second time this season to take on Northwestern. They were very fortunate to cover as 14-point favorites in a 30-13 win at Illinois in their only previous road game. Illinois turned it over four times. Penn State only outgained Illinois by 29 yards. Northwestern has been impressive in its two home games this season. The Wildcats won 38-7 over UTEP as 1-point favorites in Week 2, and pulled off the 37-34 upset win as 11.5-point dogs to Minnesota last week. Northwestern QB Ben Bryant went 33-of-49 passing for 396 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. The Cincinnati transfer is the best QB the Wildcats have had in a few years. He can keep them within four touchdowns of the Nittany Lions Saturday. Give me Northwestern.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Buffalo/Akron Under 55.5

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Buffalo/Akron under 55.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: California-12.5

Arizona State put forth a great effort in covering as a 34 1/2-point underdog to powerful USC in a 42-28 loss to the Trojans last Saturday.

I don't see the Sun Devils coming up with that type of effort and motivation for a second straight week, especially going on the road for the first time this season.

Prior to playing the Trojans, Arizona State was 0-3 ATS failing to cover in any of those games by a combined 66 1/2 points.

California lost some luster after losing, 59-32, on the road to seventh-ranked Washington last week. That score was misleading considering the Huskies only outgained the Golden Bears by 27 yards. Cal fell behind early and couldn't recover.

I see this as a bounce back spot for the Golden Bears and they are undervalued because of last week's result. Arizona State's only victory came against Southern Utah. The Sun Devils lost to Oklahoma State and Fresno State by a combined score of 56-15.

So Cal should be able to cover being nearly a two-touchdown home favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Rays+110

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' 39 between Michigan and Nebraska at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Michigan's offense has barely broken a sweat through its first four games. That's a product of playing all four games at home as massive favorites (not to mention the fact that the Wolverines have allowed a grand total of only 23 points). Here, I do think we'll see the Wolverines push the envelope a little more as game script should dictate in what figures to be their most competitive contest of the season to date. Nebraska could only muster three points in last year's matchup with Michigan. That was in the Big House. The last time we saw the Cornhuskers host the Wolverines they put 29 points on the board in 2021. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 51-27 with Michigan coming off consecutive ATS losses, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 53.7 points. Take the over.

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#211 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +16.5 over Texas, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Too many points here in our opinion. We have a big dog that can score points so they have a great chance of keeping up with Texas and the backdoor could be open late and this high number. Tough spot for Texas coming off a big win vs in state rival Baylor and a huge game on deck vs Oklahoma. A look ahead is possible as the Horns have been prone to do covering just 2 of their last 11 games the week prior to facing the Sooners. The Jayhawks topped Texas here on Austin 2 years ago as a 31 point dog in Lance Leipold’s first year as head coach. KU had only 2 wins that season and 1 was here so they should have some confidence rolling into this one. Not a revenge game for Texas however as they picked up a big win @ Kansas last season. We love the Kansas balance on offense (rush and pass for over 200 YPG) and their OC Kotelnicki is one of the top play callers in CFB. Defensively this team is improved as well allowing less than 300 YPG so far this season after giving up almost 500 YPG last season. Improvements on both sides of the ball was expected as this team has tremendous continuity with 18 starters back along with their head coach and both coordinators. KU has topped 30 points in every game this season and we think it will be tough for Texas to pull away here. Take the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Georgia -14.5 -109

Georgia continues its National Championship pursuit this week by facing Auburn.

The #1 ranked Bulldogs aim to maintain their perfect season as they face the Tigers in Week 5 of SEC action on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET. UGA is the clear favorite with a 14.5-point spread, and the over/under for total points is set at 45. The money line shows UGA at -647 and Auburn at +453.

Georgia boasts an unblemished 5-0 record, most recently securing a dominant 49-21 victory over the UAB Blazers. They've also triumphed over South Carolina, Ball State, UT Martin, and TCU. Auburn enters this matchup with a 3-1 record, having defeated Samford, CAL, and UMass, but suffering a 27-10 loss to Texas A&M last week. Notably, Georgia is 0-3 ATS in 2023, while Auburn stands at 1-3 ATS.

The Bulldogs, defending national champions, are poised to assert their dominance in the deep south's oldest rivalry. With a remarkable record of winning 9 out of the last 10 games against Auburn and 15 out of the last 18 since 06.

In a nutshell, Auburn's struggling offense won't keep pace. They remain a work in progress, ranking as the SEC's weakest passing team. Their offensive line won't hold up, a vulnerability Georgia is well aware of. Anticipate relentless defensive pressure and suffocating coverage throughout the game as Georgia will easily take down Auburn and continue their championship quest.

Some trends to note, Georgia are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Auburn, plus they're 11-0 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the SEC. Auburn are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against an SEC team.

Back the Dogs on Saturday. This could get ugly, as my model has them winning by 3 TD's.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Kansas Jayhawks+16.5

Game 211.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

Guys, there is no question that on paper, the Texas Longhorns have a stronger team than the Kansas Jayhawks. But I think we can all agree that football is not played on paper, it is played on the gridiron. And there’s a lot of factors play a role in why I like the underdog here. Last year’s matchup saw Texas devour Kansas on the road, 55-14, to not just get the win, but the cover as well. Prior to that the Jayhawks had covered five consecutive meetings, taking two of them straight up. Kansas enters. this meeting with a perfect 4-0 record. They have stepped up in class twice this season against both Illinois and BYU, and have covered both of those games. Granted, both of those contests were played at home. The Longhorns opened the season with the win and cover at home against Rice, then surprised the nation beating Alabama on the road outright. They followed that up with a letdown, even though they won, they could not cover at home against Wyoming. Last week on the road, they blew up Baylor. Following this pattern, they’re not going to cover here this week. I will tell you that everybody’s talking about their defense right now, which has allowed just 12.5 points per game. But they really haven’t faced any strong offenses yet. I know the Crimson Tide is a very good team. But I think we can all agree, they just aren’t clicking like we are accustomed to seeing them. Kansas has a solid ground attack and a smart quarterback at the helm. The Jayhawks don’t turn the ball over too much. And being they are strong at rushing the ball, they can slow down the tempo of this game, keeping the Texas defense on the field, and their offense off it. Defensively, they match up pretty well with the Longhorns offense, my friends. There’s one more thing I’d like you to be aware of guys, Texas has Oklahoma up next in the Red River rivalry. They may get caught in the lookahead role here a little bit. Or at the very least, if they have a comfortable lead, they may start pulling some of their key players. Either way, I think this is way too many points for this team to be laying. Oh, by the way, if you are concerned with the Jayhawks poor ATS road record, don’t be because the Longhorns haven’t covered too many games at home lately. Take the points with Kansas. Thank you.

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Freddy Wills

Iowa State +20 1.1% Free Play

Iowa State has an elite defense, and we have seen Oklahoma sputter on offense a couple times thus far. Oklahoma obviously has a look ahead next week to Texas and Red River Rivalry with playoff aspirations and revenge on their mind after they got their butts kicked a year ago. Iowa State under Matt Campbell has played well on the road in this series and I think they may have gotten a little confidence offensively as Rocco Becht easily his best game throwing for over 300 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INT.