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August Young
4-Unit NFL: (470) Denver Broncos -2.5 -110 over New York Jets (10/8/2023 @ 4:25PM ET) Here we are once again on this debacle of a football team. We were lucky to push with them last weekend, but we still have faith. They have failed to cover a spread so far this season, but that is why we are getting a solid buy-low situation. In database history, teams that have failed to cover a spread in their first four games of the season, are 56.7% ATS. This improves to 59.3% when at home. The Jets are getting an unfair bump from the market after taking the Chiefs down to the wire, but KC haven't been themselves at all so far this season despite their record of 3-1. Russell Wilson ranks significantly higher than Zach Wilson in a variety of metrics such as QB Rating, Overall Rating, TD Passes, INT Rate, and Yards Per Game. Solid spot for the Broncos who are back home after a momentum building road victory.
5-Unit NFL: (474) San Francisco 49ers -180 over Dallas Cowboys (10/8/2023 @ 8:20PM ET) This should be a fun one, but the 49ers are for real. Both teams have played well, but we've been far more impressed with San Francisco based on a variety of predictive metrics. We struggle to ignore the Week 3 slip up from the Cowboys losing as 11 point favorites to the Arizona Cardinals. You need complete consistency to beat this 49ers team on the road. San Francisco have played close to perfect football, and we see no reason to not back them here. This is a large price to lay, but as long-term subscribers will know; we've been highly successful on these moneyline situations. Of course; these are not guaranteed by any means, and we do mathematical derivative pricing to determine if we should lay the points and hit the ML. This is a specific spot where the ML price has more expected value than the spread. However; we do see value on both so bet accordingly based on your own risk tolerance. The 49ers will be excited to show off their stellar home defense against the Cowboys offense. Last season, SF allowed less than 13 points per game at home, and they are right around that number again this season. Simply put; they are the more complete team compared to Dallas.
4-Unit NFL: (470) Denver Broncos -2.5 -110 over New York Jets (10/8/2023 @ 4:25PM ET) Here we are once again on this debacle of a football team. We were lucky to push with them last weekend, but we still have faith. They have failed to cover a spread so far this season, but that is why we are getting a solid buy-low situation. In database history, teams that have failed to cover a spread in their first four games of the season, are 56.7% ATS. This improves to 59.3% when at home. The Jets are getting an unfair bump from the market after taking the Chiefs down to the wire, but KC haven't been themselves at all so far this season despite their record of 3-1. Russell Wilson ranks significantly higher than Zach Wilson in a variety of metrics such as QB Rating, Overall Rating, TD Passes, INT Rate, and Yards Per Game. Solid spot for the Broncos who are back home after a momentum building road victory.
5-Unit NFL: (474) San Francisco 49ers -180 over Dallas Cowboys (10/8/2023 @ 8:20PM ET) This should be a fun one, but the 49ers are for real. Both teams have played well, but we've been far more impressed with San Francisco based on a variety of predictive metrics. We struggle to ignore the Week 3 slip up from the Cowboys losing as 11 point favorites to the Arizona Cardinals. You need complete consistency to beat this 49ers team on the road. San Francisco have played close to perfect football, and we see no reason to not back them here. This is a large price to lay, but as long-term subscribers will know; we've been highly successful on these moneyline situations. Of course; these are not guaranteed by any means, and we do mathematical derivative pricing to determine if we should lay the points and hit the ML. This is a specific spot where the ML price has more expected value than the spread. However; we do see value on both so bet accordingly based on your own risk tolerance. The 49ers will be excited to show off their stellar home defense against the Cowboys offense. Last season, SF allowed less than 13 points per game at home, and they are right around that number again this season. Simply put; they are the more complete team compared to Dallas.
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