Sunday 10/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 7-8-9) $0.50 Late Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
SO $50,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 •Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:09P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $50,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MIDNIGHT FURY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOUNDSTOOTH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. STORM THE NIGHT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	MIDNIGHT FURY	7/2	9/2
10	HOUNDSTOOTH	6/1	5/1
6	STORM THE NIGHT	8/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	STORM THE NIGHT	6	8/1	Front-runner	92	92	92.8	70.1	57.1
5	MIDNIGHT FURY	5	7/2	Front-runner	92	95	91.6	88.9	82.9
3	TIZ TOK	3	20/1	Front-runner	86	86	53.1	80.6	68.1
9	PRINCIP	9	4/1	Stalker	88	85	44.5	78.9	68.9
2	KEEN HEIR	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	87	47.7	67.9	52.4
7	GHOST OF MIDNIGHT	7	6/1	Trailer	86	91	75.8	86.3	79.3
10	HOUNDSTOOTH	10	6/1	Trailer	99	99	73.4	91.8	84.3
1	HONDO CROUCH	1	8/1	Trailer	90	89	69.4	74.3	61.3
4	ZE'BUL	4	6/1	Trailer	91	92	43.2	87.9	80.4
8	HEARTBREAK KID	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	83	82.6	66.3	51.3

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belmont at the Big A - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $150,000 Class Rating: 103 Noble Damsel S. (Grade 3)

Rating:

#5 MALAVATH (IRE) (ML=8/1)
#4 FLUFFY SOCKS (ML=9/5)


MALAVATH (IRE) - True, this thoroughbred is coming off a layoff, but this filly runs well fresh. In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the turf. Her speed ratings are the highest in the field for this distance/surface. Rosario rode this horse for the initial time last race out and comes right back today. I do like foreign invaders that have run well at a big time foreign track. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Rosario, and this one could bound home the winner. FLUFFY SOCKS - This deep stretch runner should have a strong impact on this race. Expect a big stretch run. Horses out of the barn of Brown have been strong on the turf. Should do well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MOVIE MOXY (ML=2/1), #2 SALIMAH (IRE) (ML=5/2), #6 SPARKLE BLUE (ML=7/2),

MOVIE MOXY - Substandard speed rating last time around the track at Belmont Park at 1 mile. Don't think this steed will improve too much today. SALIMAH (IRE) - Didn't show much run last time out of the box. Probably won't do much running in today's race. When examining today's class figure, she will have to record a much better fig than last race out to battle in this turf route. SPARKLE BLUE - This filly earned a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - FLUFFY SOCKS - With the dominate speed number in route events on the turf, this mare is going to walk all over these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 MALAVATH (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Post: 8:27 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$11000 - PREFERRED

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 POWER AND GRACE 2/1
# 1 BUCKTOBER 3/1
# 5 LILYS LASS 7/2

POWER AND GRACE is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the brain trust. The number crunching team knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This contender will unlock our way to a nice top prize. With a 83 average class figure, this solid standardbred has one of the finest class edges in the bunch. Earned a 79 speed rating in last race. A duplicate effort here should get the top prize here.BUCKTOBER - A really good play in here as he has one of the highest winning pcts in the field as well as terrific credentials all around. Post 1 has been winning at a much better than average percentage, suggesting really good probability of success this time. LILYS LASS - Many bettors know speed is is such an important factor. This standardbred has credentials with a 80 avg rating.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Red Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
9	9	CONFEDERATE	8/5	Tetrick, Tim - 15	699.07
6	6	ANTS MARCHING	6/1	Gingras, Yannick - 20	648.17
1	1	IT'S MY SHOW	5/2	Zeron, Scott - 17	643.19
4	4	BLUE HUNT	15/1	Macdonald, James - 21	623.88
8	8	HUNGRY ANGEL BOY	7/1	Mccarthy, Todd - 21	619.82
2	2	HUNTINTHELASTDOLAR	5/1	Mcnair, Douglas - 18	600.02
7	7	FOR ONCE INMY LIFE	20/1	Mccarthy, Andrew - 17	598.07
5	5	HANDLELIKEAPORSCHE	20/1	Dunn, Dexter - 19	584.59
3	3	BUGABOO LOU	12/1	Miller, David - 14	562.45

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Leamington Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
2	2	FAITHFULS NOLA	5/2	Rooney, Garrett L - 38	421.81
4	4	STYLE SNAPSHOT	2/1	Moore, Andy C - 7	406.93
1	1	FERN HILL BELLA	3/1	Steward, Nicholas - 17	405.72
6	6	KINDA LIKE ROYALTY	8/1	Clements, Daniel W - 20	393.08
3	3	SOUTHERN MEMORIES	8/1	Rankin, Donald C - 7	378.71
5	5	NORTHERN BELLE	5/1	Wray, Scott A - 18	362.79

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 6:44 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$5500 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS $1500 IN LAST 4 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $20,000 IN 2023. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 DOUWANTOBLDASNOMAN 8/5
# 3 GO CLARA GO 2/1
# 2 ALL ABOUT AMY 7/1

The consensus here is that DOUWANTOBLDASNOMAN is the one to beat. Heads into this contest with nice TrackMaster class statistics in relationship to the group of horses - take a good look. Many top players will recognize the fantastic TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last gathering. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. The 1 post sports a much better than average win pct at Northfield Park. GO CLARA GO - Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 75 TrackMaster speed fig. Has a substantial shot this time, if she can race to her back racing class. ALL ABOUT AMY - Positive feel - doing work well enough to contend in this race.

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Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 8

Oct. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 58% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	4	Billal	J Alvarado
PLACE	5-2	2	Speed Runner	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	5	Lambeth	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	20-1	3	Wonder Wonderland	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Le Vin	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Ridgewood Runner	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SERENADE SOLDIER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	6	Serenade Soldier	R Silvera
PLACE	6-5	5	Diamond Collector	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	3	Baby Sox	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Guardian Angel	M Olver
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	London Lady	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Ritaan	M Martin
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #3 $250,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-2	3	Randomized	J Rosario
PLACE	3-1	2	A Mo Reay	F Prat
SHOW	5-2	4	Nostalgic	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Riding Pretty	J Rendon
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #4 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BIG BEAN CHRISTINE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Big Bean Christine	K Davis
PLACE	9-5	6	Clover Street	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	3	Queens Masterpiece	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Carbon	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Sikum	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Freddymo Factor	R Mitchell
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	7	Apollo Ten	J Rosario
PLACE	7-2	8	Bookem Danno	J L Ortiz
SHOW	6-1	6	Jimmythetooth	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Works for Me	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Wheres Chris	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Please Advise	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
RACE #6 $50,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 PROVE RIGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Prove Right	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	3	Kupp	J Rosario
SHOW	9-2	4	Alternate Reality	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Thunderian	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	The Khozan One	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Freedom Road	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #7 $150,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Salimah	F Prat
PLACE	9-5	4	Fluffy Socks	M Franco
SHOW	2-1	8	Movie Moxy	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Gerrymander	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Sparkle Blue	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Malavath	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	11	Ever So Sweet	K Carmouche
PLACE	5-1	12	Amidst Waves	J Rosario
SHOW	6-1	7	Jodys Pride	F Prat
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Independenceavenue	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Star of Mystery	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Marco T.	M Franco
* EXACTA: 11-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/11/12 BOX, 2/7/12 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	2	Shes Awesome	J L Ortiz
PLACE	4-1	7	Trust the Numbers	A Adorno
SHOW	9-5	5	Coolcalm Collected	J Rendon
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Harlans Bond	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Shasi	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Violets Smile	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 8

Oct. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	G T Five Hundred	M Murrill
PLACE	7-2	1	Hey Boss	G Corrales
SHOW	6-1	3	Chisholm Trail	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Navy Soul	M Burnham
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Mohaafeth	K J Jimenez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	El Franco	L Machado
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 EYES OF GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Eyes of Gold	G Corrales
PLACE	7-5	2	Queen of Missoula	L Machado
SHOW	7-2	3	My Lily Mae	J Talamo
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Stagflation	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Ritas Onthe Beach	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Gather	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #3 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 LOVE OF MY HEART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Love of My Heart	C A Torres
PLACE	2-1	3	Lets Be Clear	M Murrill
SHOW	3-1	2	Choctaw Bingo	E Morales
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Brewhouse	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Slack Tide	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Icy Stare Down	M Chuan
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 COLLECTED SUCCESS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	2	Collected Success	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	8	Choctaw Grace	E Morales
SHOW	9-2	4	Lost Love	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	20-1	1	Been Real Busy	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Twilight Sonata	J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Above the Sun	C Landeros
* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #5 $130,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	No Nay Hudson	C J Lanerie
PLACE	1-1	1	Souper Quest	T Gaffalione
SHOW	10-1	6	Mounsieur Coco	C A Torres
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Hidden Path	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	3	Crocodilehunter	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Bal a Kazoo	E E Perez
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #6 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	4	Cant Hush This	M Garcia
PLACE	1-1	8	Antares	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	5	Track Mate	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Wico	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Seeking Unity	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Just Battle	L Saez
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Wicked Again	T Gaffalione
PLACE	3-1	4	Tunisian Spring	J R Velazquez
SHOW	20-1	8	Atlantic Dancer	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Microbeastie	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	10	Runandscore	G Ashton
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Give Him Time	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
RACE #8 $250,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Amidst Waves	J R Velazquez
PLACE	15-1	3	Cowes	J Lezcano
SHOW	8-1	4	Sponge Bath	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Fairhopecurly	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Shards	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Bledsoe	L Saez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	3	Nest	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-5	2	Idiomatic	F Geroux
SHOW	6-1	4	Le Da Vida	V Cheminaud
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Bellamore	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Sixtythreecaliber	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Misty Veil	J Graham
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #10 $350,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Noted	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	6	Vote No	G Corrales
SHOW	15-1	2	Gorilla Trek	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Coin Miner	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Depiction	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Palm Tree	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 8

Oct. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Eight Clap	H I Berrios
PLACE	8-1	13	Ario	A Fresu
SHOW	5-1	14	Sharpazano	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Teddys Triumph	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Invincible	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Sir Maximus	J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 2-13 BOX, 13-14 BOX, 14-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/13/14 BOX, 9/13/14 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 CASIA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Casia	T J Pereira
PLACE	8-5	1	Minedandrefined	A Fresu
SHOW	4-1	6	Mango Moon	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Zzyzx	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Ila Veiw Too	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Oak Creek Gal	H R Lopez
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MADISON RAE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Madison Rae	A Fresu
PLACE	5-1	6	Miss Miche Lada	T J Pereira
SHOW	5-1	4	Signora Vittoria	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Stay Zappy	C Figueroa
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	Hot Danzing	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Pura Vida	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 TIERGARTEN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Tiergarten	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	6	Irish Patsy	U Rispoli
SHOW	4-1	1	Zeyaraat	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Inner Beauty	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Built Different	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Quickly Park It	A Alsagoor
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Mucino	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	7	Excel Calculator	U Rispoli
SHOW	6-1	1	Mixto	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	2-1	3	Bad Sneakers	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Mauna Kea Bound	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Bring Him Home	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:38 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Endlessly	J J Hernandez
PLACE	8-1	6	Grand Mo the First	E Jaramillo
SHOW	6-1	8	Formidable Man	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Ace of Clubs	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	4	Pour Dompter	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	9	Boltage	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
RACE #7 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	9	Princip	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	10	Houndstooth	A Cedillo
SHOW	7-2	5	Midnight Fury	V Espinoza
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Ghost of Midnight	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	3	Tiz Tok	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Storm the Night	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 5/7/10 BOX
RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Dreamfyre	H I Berrios
PLACE	3-1	2	Flattery	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	6	Soho	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Buttercream Babe	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Sushi Sticks	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Zona Verde	J Bravo
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Wishtheyallcouldbe	R Gonzalez
PLACE	5-1	2	Big Novel	J J Hernandez
SHOW	10-1	9	Shanghai Sunrise	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Lady Maryann	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Diamonds Danzing	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Organic	U Rispoli
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 2/9/10 BOX
RACE #10 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Aligato	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	3	Maltese Falcon	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	10	Lottery Pick	M E Smith
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Seal Team	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Phosphorescence	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	13	Flashiest	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/10 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Fall Stars Sunday at Keeneland!

1st Race
4-3-1



#4 G T Five Hundred is one of my best bets of the day coming down from Chicago off of two good races. This race looks like one that he should be able to handle which includes #3 Chisholm Trail who shows up to Keeneland from Iowa with some solid form.

2nd Race
4-1-2



#4 Stagflation goes two turns of the first time off of some solid sprints at Ellis and Churchill. The first wire finish will be to his liking along with the added distance. #1 Eyes of Gold takes a slight drop in class today which should help. #2 Queen of Missoula also drops down in class and should improve because of it.

3rd Race
2-6-4



#2 Choctaw Bingo has two of the best recent races of any in this race. He’s an absolute fit in here. #6 Love of My Heart also has a big shot taking a drop in class in start 2 off the claim for Steve Asmussen. #4 Brewhouse hasn’t run in two months but is a speedy sort that should be a factor early in the race.

4th Race
#4 Lost Love exits much tougher company and will run better and will be a good price. This is a horse that may be over looked a bit but shouldn’t. #1 Been Real Busy will benefit from the first wire finish line today. #5 Twilight Sonata changes surfaces to dirt and drops in class and adds blinker. A lot of changes should wake her up.

5th Race
1-4-5



#1 Super Quest is very quick early and will benefit from post 1 with that speed to save all the ground he wants in here. #4 No Nay Hudson cannot be overlooked and may be the horse that gives jockey Corey Lanerie career win #5,000 as he comes in to the day at 4,999. Wesley Ward doesn’t ride Lanerie that much but he’s put him on a live one here. #5 Hidden Path cuts back in distance and has to prove he wants to sprint versus route.

6th Race
8-4-1



#8 Antares is trained by Bill Morey and he has this to say about his chances, “Excited to run him at Keeneland ! I think the distance will be perfect for him.” I agree he’s a big fit and getting Irad Ortiz Jr to ride is a tell for me. #4 Can’t Hush This cuts back in distance and should wake up because of it. #1 Just Battle is trained by Al Stall Jr who wins 21% when taking a horse from turf to dirt as he is here. Worth a look.

7th Race
1-4-3



#1 Wicked Again is a full brother to Wicked Halo who ran a big second in yesterday’s G2 TCA Stakes here at Keeneland. He’s also run versus some stiff competition in his races, and he gets back under today after winter try today looks to be a big day for this horse. #4 Tunisian Spring also moves from turf to dirt for Wesley Ward who wins 33% of the time with moves like this. #3 Study Committee also make the move back to dirt, what looks to be his preferred surface.

8th Race
2-5-6



#2 Amidst Waves is by far the most accomplished in this stakes race and should be treated as so, having won two stakes races already in his 2 year old campaign. #5 Candymaker was once described to me by Wesley Ward as one of the best 2 year old’s he had ever been around, back in the spring here at Keeneland. He’s now with Steve Asmussen making only his second career start. Let’s see what he’s got 4 months removed from his only race, which was a win. #6 Committee of One is still a maiden but ran second to a horse named Palm Tree who runs later today in the Castle and Key Bourbon Stakes. Have to respect.

9th Race
3-2-1



#3 Nest was handed a defeat by #2 Idiomatic in the G1 Personal Ensign on the square. This race has as much of an impact on who will be champion older female in ’23 as the BC Distaff will in my opinion. I think she’ll be better today but take nothing away from Idiomatic. This is an absolute jump ball in a grade 1 race at Keeneland for two of the best older females in training right now. #1 Sixtythreecaliber doesn't like wet tracks as she caught in her most recent run. Today it will be fast and she'll run accordingly.

10th Race
3-2-4



#3 Depiction was flashy in his second career start in a one by 5 1/2 likes backing up a very good debut in July. More progression should come in an even better and bigger effort can be expected. #2 Gorilla Trek is one for one in his career and was extremely wide coming off the far turn to win on debut. Another one that looks like he has a world of talent. #4 Can Group really woke up with a move to turf in his most recent start. He's definitely contender to finish in the top three or four at the very minimum.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 8, 2023



What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Sunday wraps opening weekend with the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes as one of the track’s most important annual showcases. The supporting races include the Indian Summer and Bourbon Stakes bookending the feature at the tail of the 10-race card.



Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,8,10 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.



Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.



Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temps in the low 60s are in a beautiful autumn forecast.



My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).



Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Dual-condition claimers open the card and the early pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others. Mohaaafeth in the only Churchill runner in this lineup and I’m always willing to give a 1-turn miler a look going the short-stretch trip at Keeneland around 2 turns. The average 1-1/16 miles dirt winner at Keeneland is 2.1 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, but that reduces to 1.6 lengths back when you have fields of 6 or fewer like this. You’ll want to stay closer to the pace.

2nd Race
The second $100,000 maiden claiming race of the Fall Meet starts the early pick 4 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Ellis prepper JJ’s Joker won the initial offering and we’ll have 3 of 6 entered in this race via Ellis: Eyes of Gold, Queen of Missoula and Gather. The average 1-1/16 miles dirt winner at Keeneland is 2.1 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, but that reduces to 1.6 lengths back when you have fields of 6 or fewer like this. You’ll want to stay closer to the pace. Horses who prepped at a mile or longer on dirt are statistically preferred at this class/distance, which limits to Eyes of Gold and Queen of Missoula. I do think Rita’s On the Beach is interesting if a pair price for a patient Ian Wilkes barn that finally gets this one long on dirt in the third start. Declan Cannon has outstanding marks riding 1-1/16 miles short fields on the Kee main over the years and this race could be a cat-and-mouse game among the pilots.

3rd Race
Mid-level open $32,000 claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in the main track in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet mid-level claimers ($20,000-$40,000) are for formful races with an average winner just 7-2 odds. The Churchill preppers dominate with no other circuit asserting any consistent success. That’s good news for Choctaw Bingo and Icy Stare Down. Brewhouse invades from Canterbury for trainer Mac Robertson, a barn that won with a Cby raider on opening day Friday. Love of My Heart is a track and distance winner here during the 2020 Fall Meet, this field’s only positive local running line.

4th Race
Maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt next on the program. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet route MCL races lean toward Churchill preppers who last raced at a mile or longer on dirt. Also give extra credence to horses within five lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, but not necessarily on the lead. Lost Love, Collier and Choctaw Grace are the CD reps here and all ran the requisite prep distance. Choctaw Love should be closest to the early pace among that trio and the most effective. Trainer Riley Mott had an eye-catching maiden winner on opening day Friday and looks for another with Been Real Busy. Brad Cox is a strong 10: 3-2-3 with his last 10 turf-to-dirt moves in Keeneland maiden claimers like Collected Success tries, 2 of those 3 wins coming when similarly moving from MSW to MCL at the same time.

5th Race
Allowance turf sprinters clash in the kickoff leg to the Sunday pick 6 as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf sprint ALW races is to look for finishers. A winner has been twice as likely to have been 3 lengths or more back after the half-mile mark than to have been on the lead. But that average winner’s margin shrinks to just 1 length back at that juncture when you have Fall Meet fields of 7 or less – field size matters. The pace here looks hot with Souper Quest, Crocodilehunter and No Nay Hudson battling. Kentucky Downs preppers have had a modest edge in wins, but not overwhelming other regions. Bling won a similar race on opening day Friday via KD. Hidden Path and Mounsieur Coco are your KD reps here, the former for Todd Pletcher, whose 8 turf sprint wins at Kee are second-most of any trainer. Problem is, Wesley Ward has 46 and will send out No Nay Hudson.

6th Race
The late pick 5 starts with an entry-level (N1X) allowance sprint at the about 7-furlong distance. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. Also don’t overemphasize speed at this class and 7F distance. Only about 10% of these races are won wire-to-wire but the average winner is within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Seeking Unity, Track Mate and Can’t Hush This are the CD preppers involved and the latter pair both are by top-notch local Kee dirt sires Not This Time and Union Rags, respectively. It’s interesting here so many horses come off long layoffs. Only 3 of 27 winners in similar Fall Meet races were horses who had not raced in August or more recently. That’s a knock on Cant Be Doin That, Seeking Unity and Wico.

7th Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters dash 7 furlongs on dirt in the late pick 4 leadoff. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet elder MSW dirt races lean extremely hard to experienced horses. Only about 6% have been won by first-time starters. Churchill preppers far and away have been most successful, while horses with tactical early speed have been most effective in the 7-furlong offerings at this level. The CD preppers don’t inspire here, but expect KD-prepped Tunisian Spring and Wicked Again to be forwardly placed and effective in a field that lacks any other real solid options. Curlin colt Citizen may improve over a dirt surface the sire’s offspring do well with, while rookie Microbeastie is by sharp Kee dirt sire Super Saver, who had a winner at this 7F trip on opening day in ALW company.

8th Race
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint hopefuls square off in the Indian Summer Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs on grass, the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three today. This race inaugurated in 2018 and in its 5 previous editions, Saratoga (3) and Kentucky Downs (2) preppers have split the trophies. Trainer Steve Asmussen won it last year with Private Creed and looks to repeat with Candymaker. Wesley Ward has a pair of Indian Summer victories and can take a third via Bledsoe, who was a local dirt debut winner here in April. Never overlook Ward in Kee turf sprints. Note his 46 such wins here in the database dwarf everyone else (Todd Pletcher 8, Rusty Arnold 7 are a distant next-best).Sires of the last 2 Indian Summer winners are back here, Midshipman with Amidst Waves and Jimmy Creed with Pinotslilgirl.

9th Race
The Grade 1 $600,000 Spinster Stakes matches top Breeders’ Cup Distaff division rivals over 1-1/8 miles. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, each Spinster winner has been 7-1 or less and we’ve had back-to-back winners at 2-5 odds, Letruska and Malathaat. Expect the good ones to deliver their game, namely the matchup between Personal Ensign Stakes 1-2 finishers Idiomatic and Nest. Over the last 7 editions, the average Spinster winner has been only 1-1/2 lengths back after the opening half-mile with no deep closers winnings. Idiomatic has the pace edge and it will be up to Nest to keep her in check. Six of those 9 Spinster winners came via New York like the favored pair and it’s hard to envision any scenario where one of them doesn’t win this. Nest’s trainer Todd Pletcher does have a record 5 Spinster wins to his credit and got the meet off to a good stakes start Friday in taking the Alcibiades with NY raider Candied.

10th Race
The finale is the Grade 2 $200,000 Bourbon Stakes for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf aspirants and also wraps the Keeneland Turf Pick Three at 1-1/16 miles on grass. This race has been evenly split the last decade between Kentucky Downs (5) and New York (4) preppers. It’s an overwhelming 15 of 17 winners in the database who prepped last on turf and 14 of them at a mile or longer. Looking for KD/NY turf route preppers limits the cast to Nomos, Double Your Money and First World War in the main body of the field (as well as all three also-eligibles). The average winner has been a notable 4-1/4 lengths back after the opening half-mile, a definite closers profile. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won 5 times here in that span and sends out Noted and Nomos as well as also-eligible Tireless. Mark Casse counters with 4 wins in the last 17 years and saddles Can Group. Pletcher got the meet off to a good stakes start Friday in taking the Alcibiades with 2-year-old NY raider Candied. From a pedigree standpoint, sire War Front’s offspring love the local turf and First World War could be formidable off a KD mile win in his debut.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Comments for Sunday October 8 at Keeneland.

1st Race
One of the less reliable categories, conditioned (or beaten) claiming races tend to feature underachievers, with this particular field no exception. That said, pace often makes these races with someone getting brave on the lead and that could definitely be the case for 4-GT Five Hundred, who comes off two solid efforts versus similar at Hawthorne. Forwardly placed in both his recent tries, the Ingrid Mason runner shouldn't face much competition early, and pace aside, his speed figures are slightly higher than most of this rivals. El Franco moves back to the turf and can sit closer to the likely pacesetter making him a contender despite the fact he's winless this year and 1 for 13 over the past two years. Chisholm Trail isn't fast enough to make the early lead, but he can likely sit close and has come close at this level several times including his most recent run at Prairie Meadows. As an added bonus he's one of only two in the field to have won at the mile and a sixteenth distance.

2nd Race
With nearly every runner in this distance marathon exiting maiden special weight company, there's no real standout on a class level. 4-Stagflation making only his third start, has done less wrong than almost anyone else and stretching out from six furlongs, could potentially make the lead early--definitely a benefit in a compact field. Eyes of Gold can build on a third pace finish against tougher at Ellis. Queen of Missoula is another who has only started twice and, returning off a two month break, may flash speed if a recent best of the morning work at Keeneland is any indication.

3rd Race
With an abundance of early speed types in this upper level claiming sprint, 2-Choctaw Bingo has the ability to lead, press or stalk depending on what's needed. The 5-year-old mare is still going strong, with a win and a second in her last two tries. 6-Love of My Heart makes her first start in two months and has run well fresh including a win at Keeneland back in 2020. 3-Let's Be Clear invades following a winning effort at Belterra and can pick up the pieces late should there be a pace melt down.

4th Race
With most of the field once again dropping in class, trainer angles are worth noting. Trainer Brad Cox sends out 2-Collected Success, moving the filly from the turf to the dirt and from maiden special to maiden claiming--both high percentage moves for the conditioner. The filly's debut resulted in a third place finish and while it wasn't bad, her pedigree suggests she may be as good--or better--on the dirt. Choctaw Grace was second against easier rivals. 1-Been Real Busy moves from turf to dirt, stretches to a route and gets an equipment change as Riley Mott opts to take the liners off.

5th Race
Speed of the speed, 1-Souper Quest, is inside and possibly the best horse in the race regardless of pace. The Casse runner exits stakes company at Colonial and was a winner in two of his previous tries. He may have company from 3-Crocodilehunter who has won his last two against lesser, but believe the son of Munnings is just a little better. 4-No Nay Hudson also exits stakes company--for the first time since breaking his maiden impressively on dirt at Keeneland. That said, he's seems a somewhat hard luck horse although getting Lasix first time could put him back on top. 5-Hidden Path faltered going farther at Kentucky Downs and may not have handled the unique course plus the field was salty that day. He was beaten less than 2 lengths by Beuys, a horse who would nearly win the finale on Opening Day, and the Pletcher runner definitely fits with these. 2-Bal a Kazoo is another to consider on your Turf Pick 3 ticket as he's won two of his last three and can possibly sit just off the main threats to his inside and outside.

6th Race
8-Antares just about got the job done at this level at Saratoga, showing he might be as good on the dirt as he's been on sythnthetic--maybe better. Speed outside and Irad Ortiz, Jr. make him very interesting shortening up slightly to 7 furlongs. 5-Track Mate has done little wrong in two prior starts and appears on the improve and a better horse at age 3. 6-Wico is a bit of a wild card as he tries dirt for the first time but with John Velazquez taking the call from Wesley Ward and good efforts on both turf and synthetic, it's possible he can handle anything. If his form carries over to the new surface, he will be very tough.

7th Race
Non-winners coming in from all places, distances and levels make this race tricky for handicappers, and 4-Tunisian Spring's debut, a near win at Kentucky Downs on the turf adds another level to the puzzle. The Wesley Ward/Velazquez combo ran impressively at relatively high odds and showed some fight battling for nearly the length of the stretch. Pedigree suggests the son of Violence will handle the dirt, and stats are good for Ward making second starts and moving turf to dirt. On the outside, 10-Runandscore ran well in Indy and has been consistent, showing improvement with each of his four starts. Just a little more puts him in the hunt. 8-Atlantic Dancer is a consistent check getter but with an 0 for 13 record it's hard to put the 4-year-old on top, although one of these days he will get the job done and he seems to like Keeneland.

8th Race
The first of the three stakes, the Indian summer highlights juveniles on turf and appears to be a good and competitive group over all. Trainer George Weaver has been spot on all year with his two-year-olds and 2-Amidst Waves rides a three race win streak--two of them stakes races. Versatile and obviously able to handle different tracks and pace situations, one of several fillies in the bunch facing boys seems well spotted. 6-Committee of One is a maiden facing winners, but both her efforts on turf have been good and he's likely to be running at the end where others may not. 1-Shards was an impressive maiden winner at Colonial in September and while the company is deeper here, the Colonial turf horses have been carrying their form forward.

9th Race
While the Spinster has attracted a quality field, a slightly compact field size lends itself to a front runner. 2-Idiomatic fills that bill and then some, as the daughter of Curlin seeks her fourth win in a row. Perhaps flattered by a sloppy track in the Personal Ensign, she is nevertheless, likely once again alone on the lead and definitely the filly to catch unless someone such as 3-Nest can sit closer than her connections probably want her to. Also a daughter of Curlin, Nest might have not fired her best shot on the slop in the Personal Ensign and making her third start of the year, may be poised to run a lifetime best. She still has to prove she's as good now as she was last summer and fall, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will have some important decisions to make early, regarding how soon he wants to put pressure on Idiomatic. Others who are improving but face a pace challenge are 4-Le Da Vida, 1-Sixtythreecaliber and 6-Misty Veil--if something strange happens to the favorites, either could be right there to take advantage.

10th Race
The weekend wraps up with graded stakes action in the grade 2 Bourbon for two-year-olds going long on turfin what is possibly the most challenging race on the program. With all but one horse coming in off a win, anything is possible. Of the group, 5-Noted stands out with wins on turf and dirt, in maiden and stakes company and winning at a mile. Not particularly fast early, the Pletcher charge may be a little pace dependent but has the look of a horse going the right direction. On the outside, 12-First World War looked very good breaking his maiden for Brendan Walsh; at an early juncture the Kentucky Downs winners weren't bringing their game to Keeneland but that can change quickly and the son of War Front did things the right way. 9-Coin Miner also looked impressive sprinting at Kentucky Downs. While he has to prove he can run as well longer and against better, he was one of the few there to coming wide and from off the pace, and he overcame some adversity to get the job done.

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa

We close out opening weekend with a 10-race card that looks chalkier than the two that opened the fall meeting, but there are a few opportunities against clear morning line favorites.

As for opportunities to date, I feel good about the opinions over 21 races so far but bad about being unable to connect on some of the better ones. We're down $150 on the $3 all-turf Pick 3, and our top picks are 21-5-6-2 w/ a -2.1% ROI.

The feature today is the Spinster Stakes, a key prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park, and it's a humdinger with Idiosyncratic squaring off against champion Nest again.

1st Race
PICKS: 4-5-3

2nd Race
PICKS: 1-3-2

3rd Race
PICKS: 7-3-6

4th Race
PICKS: 8-2-1-5

5th Race
PICKS: 1-3-5-4

6th Race
PICKS: 5-4-6-8

7th Race
PICKS: 1-9-3-4

8th Race
PICKS: 2-3-9-4

9th Race
PICKS: 3-2-4

10th Race
PICKS: 5-3-6-7

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach Keeneland

We close out Fall Stars Weekend today with one of the most prolific preps for a Breeders' Cup race--the grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster. And I think there's a good chance it produces another BC Distaff winner.

1st Race
3-Chisholm Trail has a played a little tougher schedule, if you will, and that experience should serve him well against this group. 4-G T Five Hundred's last two races were a significant improvement but he also came up short in both of them. 2-El Franco could be a contender if he gets back to the level of that 71 Beyer figure two starts back at Ellis Park.

2nd Race
4-Stagflation regressed off his debut effort but she was caught in between rivals on a solid pace. If she returns to that earlier form, she could take this bunch wire-to-wire in her first try around two turns. 3-My Lily Mae drops in class and her rider has been in good recent form but I can't take 0-for-16 in the win slot. 2-Queen of Missoula drops in class but I worry that she could a little too far behind in this short field. 1-Eyes of Gold is a hit-the-board candidate but five third-places from eight starts is concerning as a "win" prospect.

3rd Race
2-Choctaw Bingo is in good form since moving into this barn two starts ago and she has nine lifetime wins. 3-Let's Be Clear is also in good form right now but I give the top choice the nod because she has more early speed. 4-Brewhouse gets Gafflione in the saddle and the trainer picks his spots well when he ships into Keeneland. That 76 Beyer two starts back would give him her a big shot in this race.

4th Race
2-Collected Success drops into maiden-claiming company after finishing third in her debut behind a filly that has stakes potential. Not wild about the low odds but this filly looks tough in this spot. 3-Northern Road is intriguing with both a class drop and an equipment change and with Saez in the saddle. 4-Lost Love caught a salty group first time out and should have a much better chance to hit the board against this group.

5th Race
The Pick 6 starts here, as does the all Turf Pick 3 bet, and 1-Souper Quest will be a "single" for many bettors. This one is all speed and he's got the rail draw and Gafflione in the saddle and I can't make a strong case to get this one beat. If you want to try for an upset, look at 4-No Nay Hudson. It's Wesley Ward and he won't be the favorite and he's been working well locally after going to Saratoga for his first start off a layoff. 5-Hidden Path has faced some tough fields in his recent starts but he's tried sprinting on the turf and he may have a little too much left to do in the final furlong.

6th Race
Let's try to beat the heavy favorite here with 6-Wico. This colt shows race, including the one two back in a stake at Woodbine, that would give him a good shot and he's drawn inside of the favorite and I can see Johnny V using that to his advantage. 8-Antares might get caught in "chase mode" in this cutback from longer distances and that might be enough to get him back if the pace is a little hotter than he might like. 3-Seeking Unity has hooked stakes-caliber colts in his last two runs so he might show significant improvement in this spot. And 4-Can't Hush This was much improved last time, albeit against lesser foes.

7th Race
We'll follow a similar path in this race, using a Ward-trained runner to try and upset the heavy favorite. 4-Tunisian Song ran well at a challenging distance first time out and being by Violence, this gelding should handle the surface change just fine. 7-Give Him Time doesn't show any really fast works but it's a steady pattern of solid times and I have a hunch that Romans will have this one ready to fire. 1-Wicked Again turned in some solid efforts in his three dirt starts but I can't take a short price on a runner that I don't think has a significant edge on the top pick. 10-Runandscore ships in from Indy but that if that Beyer figure from his last start proves legit, this horse will have a major say in the outcome.

8th Race
The Indian Summer kicks off a trio of stakes races to close out the Sunday card and I like a "price" here. 3-Cowes probably won't be 15-1 but even half of that price would be nice. She won her debut last time at Saratoga despite a less than ideal start and that's tough to overcome in turf sprints. He showed a really nice turn of foot when he slid off the rail in the stretch and he won easier than it looks, over a horse that was four lengths ahead of the third-place runner. 2-Amidst Waves has won three straight, the last two being in stakes company. After that, I could make a case for several others but let's try 7-Bledsoe in the third slot. He was speed-and-fade last time but that was first start off a long layoff on a challenging course. I'm expecting improvement.

9th Race
2-Idiomatic is my pick in the grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster. She has taken her game to another level in the last three starts and she's had a series of four nice works since her last run, suggesting she's still thriving. If she moves forward, look out for her on Breeders' Cup day. 3-Nest has won here and has tons of class but the speed figures suggest she may have hit a plateau. 4-Le Da Vide gets a class test her but she shows races that would make her competitive. Her trainer says she was unexpectedly nervous last time so consider drawing a line through that performance and judge her off the rest of the form.

10th Race
The grade 2 Castle and Key Bourbon Stakes has developed into a strong prep for the BC Juvenile Turf and this is a group of lightly-raced runners that offer a lot of potential. I'm taking a shot with 12-First World War. I love the way he exploded in the stretch in his debut win even though he was running with the bias. I interviewed the trainer for Keeneland social media and the barn is high on this colt. 11-Double Your Money won in his second start from a wide post. 5-Noted comes from the Pletcher barn and took a step forward last time out. 9-Coin Miner prevailed last time over a next-out winner. 8-Tok Tok is 2-for-2 and trainer Motion wants to see if this one has BC potential. 7-Fortune Seller was only two lengths behind Noted first time out. And 1-Palm Tree is the other Walsh runner and he really moved up when switched to grass. There are others for whom I could make a case so consider the "all" button on your late P4 and P3 tickets.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Sunday October 8, 2023
Race 10 at Keeneland
Post Time 5:48 p.m. eastern time
Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes – Grade 2

Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#2 Gorilla Trek – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#5 Noted – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
#9 Coin Miner – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1

Although no exacta bets are explicitly recommended, the three main win contenders above can be used on any exacta bets we are considering, in addition to the next tier of contenders, which consist of #11 Double Your Money, #6 Vote No and #12 First World War.

Gorilla Trek won at first asking, two weeks ago, at this mile and one-sixteenth distance and on turf. Winning around two turns on turf at first asking is a difficult task, as most horses need a race or two before being physically and mentally ready for the trip. Nevertheless, Gorilla Trek accomplished the feat in visually impressive fashion as he lagged in 10th in the field of 12 for the first part of the race, was taken to the outside by jockey Leparoux (who rides again) on the far turn, was seven paths wide into the stretch, and furiously rallied to win. What’s most impressive about the way Gorilla Trek’s effort is the colt was NEVER urged hard as Leparoux did not take his drop off the saddle and just let the colt do his thing. Not only that, but Gorilla Trek acted “green” in the stretch, which means he wasn’t focused. Throughout the time he was rallying past eight other horses, Gorilla Trek kept looking at the grandstand and Leparoux had to remind him to look ahead and not to the side. This appears to be one talented horse and since he can only improve off that effort, which earned the highest (fastest) Equibase Speed Figure in the field (92), Gorilla Trek may be the one to beat in this talented field of improving two year olds.

Noted has run three times, so has an experience edge on many others in this field, and he’s run well in all three. He’s two-for-two in routes (a mile or more), with a win on turf at this distance in July followed by a win on dirt in the Sapling Stakes in August. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode Noted in his maiden win on turf and gets back on after another jockey rode him in the Sapling. He improved to a career-best 88 figure with that win and certainly can take another step forward so is a strong contender in this race.

Coin Miner missed by inches in a three horse photo in his debut in July, sprinting on turf, then improved as would be expected in his second career start at the end of August, rallying from third in the final stages to win. He was then flattered when the runner-up came back to win an important stakes race on the grass similar to this one, while this colt was pointed to the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. He too is improving, going from a 74 figure in his debut to 80 last time out, and jockey Graham (who rides here) has been aboard for both races so horse and rider are familiar with each other. If there is one question mark compared to the other two contenders, it is that Coin Miner draws the nine post, meaning he must save ground before the first turn and may have to navigate through traffic in this full field. Nevertheless, he appears talented enough to do just that.

As to the three other listed contenders, all with less probability to win but still with a shot to at least be part of the exacta – both Double Your Money and First World War get potentially disadvantageous outside posts but both won turf routes in their most recent starts and can improve, while Vote No won the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes in a field of nine last month, at the shorter distance of six and one-half furlongs, so is trying two turns for the first time, but is now undefeated in two starts and may have a say in the outcome once more.