Wednesday 10/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Philadelphia Phillies -121

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing great value at home as a short favorite with Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA in 15 home starts this season. He has pitched 18 innings in his last three home starts against the Braves without allowing an earned run. Nola is just what the doctor ordered for the Phillies to bounce back from blowing a 4-0 lead in Game 2. Give me the Phillies.

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Senators+170

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Senators+170

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Senators+1.5 -140

No analysis provided.

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Sean Murphy

Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

It's likely going to be another long season for the rebuilding Canadiens but on opening night, I expect them to give the rival Maple Leafs all they can handle. There's no question head coach Martin St. Louis has the Habs pointed in the right direction. Montreal's young core figures to take another step forward this season but in an ultra-competitive Atlantic Division with teams like the Senators and Sabres on the rise as well, it isn't likely to contend for the playoffs. That doesn't mean we won't be able to pick our spots to back the Habs, however, and I believe this is one. The Leafs did manage to take the final two regular season meetings in this series in blowout fashion last season but prior to that Montreal had at least stayed within a goal in nine straight matchups. We won't pass up the opportunity to grab the insurance goal at a plus-money return on Wednesday. Take Montreal +1.5 goals.

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Astros/Twins OVER 8

Each of the first three games of this series have seen 8 or more combined runs. It should be more of the same in Game 4 tonight with these two gas cans on the mound in Jose Urquidy for the Astros and Joe Ryan for the Twins.

Ryan has been particularly terrible for the Twins this season, especially in the second half of the year. He is 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 29 starts and a whopping 32 homers allowed. He has allowed at least one homer in 12 of his last 14 starts and a total of 24 homers in those 14 starts. Ryan is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in three career starts against Houston, allowing 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 innings.

Jose Urquidy is 3-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He hasn't been healthy all year, and he is clearly the weakest link in this Houston rotation. The Twins should get their bats going off of him tonight, and they should get into this Houston bullpen early as Urquidy is only averaging 4.7 innings per start.

The OVER is 19-9-1 in Ryan's 29 starts this season. The OVER is 10-3-1 in Ryan's 14 home starts. Minnesota is 12-2 OVER in home games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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Brandon Lee

7* MLB Astros/Twins SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON HOUSTON ASTROS +110

I'll take my chances with the Astros (+110) on the money line in Game 4 against the Twins. Houston broke a 1-1 series tie with a emphatic 9-1 win in Game 3 on Tuesday. The Astros can now close this thing out and punch their ticket to the ALCS. I believe they do just that. Houston knows a thing or two about putting a series to rest and I just don't know about the Twins being able to step up in a do or die situation. I also got to give the starting pitching edge to the Astros. They will have Jose Urquidy on the mound. This will be his first start of the playoffs, but he's got a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also got a 2.75 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 4 career starts vs the Twins. Joe Ryan will get the rock for Minnesota. Ryan will also be making his first start in the playoffs. However, he's got a 7.31 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 8.36 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 3 career starts vs Houston. Give me the Astros +110!

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Dave Price

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Sam Houston State +3.5

The Key: The Sam Houston State Bearkats have played a much tougher schedule than New Mexico State. They have faced BYU, Air Force, Houston, Jacksonville State and Liberty. They played 4 of those 5 teams to two possession games, including a 21-16 loss at Liberty last week as 21.5-point dogs. This team is on the improve, especially on offense to compliment a tremendous defense. New Mexico State has faced UMass, Western Illinois, Liberty, New Mexico, Hawaii and FIU. They lost 33-17 at Liberty to give them a common opponent. The wrong team is favored in this matchup as I like the price we are getting on the Bearkats +3.5. Take Sam Houston State.

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Will Rogers

Free Play: Aces-4.5 -115

I've got a big play on the total in this game but I also like the side. In my analysis of Game 1, I said the following: "The two best teams meet again. New York has taken three of the past four meetings dating back to a memorable 99-61 blowout back in early August. The Aces are still the class of the league though. They won by 13 the last time that the teams played here in Vegas. They're 19-1 on this floor. Liberty are 2-10 ATS their last 12 road games against the Aces .... All 10 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than 5 points. Most were blowouts. So, I'm not going to worry about laying this small number." Vegas ended up winning by 17 points. That makes 11 straight meetings which were decided by more than 5. The Aces are still the better team and the number is fair. Lay it.

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Jeff Alexander

1* MLB - Dodgers/Dbacks FREE PICK on Dodgers -136

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Ray Monohan
Dodgers -139

Probable Pitchers: LAD - L. Lynn-R vs ARI - B. Pfaadt-R

The Diamondbacks won both games in Los Angeles, and they're just one victory away from moving on to the NLCS. To catch the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game, tune in at 9:07 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Arizona. You can watch it on TBS. Here are the current betting odds: LAD -139, ARI +122, and the over/under stands at 9.5. We’re backing the Dodgers to stay alive here.

Arizona has shocked the Dodgers with 2 wins in LA as this series now shifts back to Arizona for Game 3. Los Angeles has been a consistent top team throughout this year and now they have their backs against the wall in a big way. We’re playing for them not to get swept here. They’re far too good and matchup very well here with this pitching matchup.

Brandon Pfaadt goes for Arizona as the rookie got rocked in his first postseason start. He lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing 7 hits and 3 runs. He’s been far too inconsistent this season. The RH faced the Dodgers once, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in 4.0 innings of work earlier this season. This is going to be a game where the Dodgers offense gets to him early.

Lance Lynn counters after throwing back to back quality starts to close out his regular season (3 of his last 4 starts were QS). He’s got the momentum and has pitched in some big situations. During his most recent action Lynn gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and issued 4 walks while managing to strike out 4 batters in a span of 6 innings. This solid performance secured him the victory against the Giants last Friday.

Trends to note, the Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their L7 games against AZ, and they head into the game having gone 7-3 straight-up in their last 10 games on the road.

We’re backing the experience and better offense here.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Wednesday 5* FREE MLB ML Play

Probable Pitchers: LAD - L. Lynn-R vs ARI - B. Pfaadt-R

The Diamondbacks won both games in Los Angeles, and they're just one victory away from moving on to the NLCS. To catch the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game, tune in at 9:07 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Arizona. You can watch it on TBS. Here are the current betting odds: LAD -139, ARI +122, and the over/under stands at 9.5. We’re backing the Dodgers to stay alive here.

Arizona has shocked the Dodgers with 2 wins in LA as this series now shifts back to Arizona for Game 3. Los Angeles has been a consistent top team throughout this year and now they have their backs against the wall in a big way. We’re playing for them not to get swept here. They’re far too good and matchup very well here with this pitching matchup.

Brandon Pfaadt goes for Arizona as the rookie got rocked in his first postseason start. He lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing 7 hits and 3 runs. He’s been far too inconsistent this season. The RH faced the Dodgers once, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in 4.0 innings of work earlier this season. This is going to be a game where the Dodgers offense gets to him early.

Lance Lynn counters after throwing back to back quality starts to close out his regular season (3 of his last 4 starts were QS). He’s got the momentum and has pitched in some big situations. During his most recent action Lynn gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and issued 4 walks while managing to strike out 4 batters in a span of 6 innings. This solid performance secured him the victory against the Giants last Friday.

Trends to note, the Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their L7 games against AZ, and they head into the game having gone 7-3 straight-up in their last 10 games on the road.

We’re backing the experience and better offense here.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Wednesday 5* FREE MLB ML Play

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Avalanche-110

*All NHL picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Avalanche-110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Handicappers' Consensus for Wednesday, October 11

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	1 Sicilian Grandma 6 Big Java 5 Vintage	1 Sicilian Grandma 5 Vintage 2 Lady With a Cause	2 Lady With a Cause 1 Sicilian Grandma 6 Big Java	5 Vintage 1 Sicilian Grandma 2 Lady With a Cause	6 Big Java 5 Vintage 1 Sicilian Grandma
2	4 Tiz My Hero 5 Head Lad 11 Mr. Faversham	11 Mr. Faversham 8 Silent Spectre 9 Khanate	6 Moneyshot 2 Wecallemfuncoupons 4 Tiz My Hero	2 Wecallemfuncoupons 11 Mr. Faversham 8 Silent Spectre	2 Wecallemfuncoupons 3 Stunnem 7 Lead Foot
3	4 Caramel Chip 2 Like a Saltshaker 7 Junior Bug	2 Like a Saltshaker 4 Caramel Chip 11 Startdfromdabottom	2 Like a Saltshaker 4 Caramel Chip 10 Shackleford Strong	4 Caramel Chip 2 Like a Saltshaker 10 Shackleford Strong	4 Caramel Chip 10 Shackleford Strong 2 Like a Saltshaker
4	1 I'm a Mess 4 High Fashion Kate 10 Fun Loving	8 Pendulum 9 Just Prada 12 Carina Nebula	2 Winsome Beauty 6 Colonial Rose 12 Carina Nebula	4 High Fashion Kate 8 Pendulum 2 Winsome Beauty	13 Sea Dancer 2 Winsome Beauty 6 Colonial Rose
5	6 Go Margie Go 4 Stealthespotlight 2 Shy Shy	6 Go Margie Go 5 Intermittent Fast 2 Shy Shy	8 Too Fast for You 5 Intermittent Fast 6 Go Margie Go	6 Go Margie Go 7 Adios Muchachas 2 Shy Shy	2 Shy Shy 5 Intermittent Fast 7 Adios Muchachas
6	1 Make the Boys Wink 5 Lilac Girl 9 Beautifulnavigator (IRE)	3 Up and Down 11 Star Fortress (IRE) 5 Lilac Girl	3 Up and Down 5 Lilac Girl 11 Star Fortress (IRE)	5 Lilac Girl 9 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 3 Up and Down	3 Up and Down 9 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 5 Lilac Girl
7	2 Fightertown 3 Seven Flat 8 Sant' Antimo	6 Madison Luvs Duke 5 Inexorable 10 Master Game	8 Sant' Antimo 10 Master Game 11 Dog Red	1 Hurry Hurry 10 Master Game 2 Fightertown	5 Inexorable 2 Fightertown 8 Sant' Antimo
8	6 Luz Divina 8 Auraculous 3 Extremely Gruntled	6 Luz Divina 8 Auraculous 2 Mishka	8 Auraculous 5 Joyful Image 7 Cairo Street	6 Luz Divina 3 Extremely Gruntled 7 Cairo Street	6 Luz Divina 10 Spiritual Lady 2 Mishka

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SCOTT HAZELTON KEENELAND


Happy start of week 2 of the Keeneland Fall Meet!

1st Race
1-6-5

#1 Sicilian Grandma looks like she can out class this field on the drop in class she’s taking. That’s enough versus this group. #6 Big Java comes into this race off of a win what does move up in class touch which she will have to offset that class difference versus the number one choice for me in this race. #5 Vintage comes into this race off of two consecutive wins, and also will be tested for class versus this group here today at Keeneland, versus the most recent win at Finger Lakes in NY.



2nd Race
4-5-11

#4 Tip My Hero wears blinkers for a second consecutive race, and will cut back in distance, and I think that the combination will put this young horse over the top. #5 Head Lad comes to Kentucky after running twice in southern California. It should be easier versus the tough runners that he had to face at Del Mar. #11 Mr. Faversham he's a first time starter that is bred to win early.


3rd Race
4-2-7

#4 Caramel Chip has been one of the most consistently good runners of this entire 2023 season between the East Coast and Kentucky. He has won six races from 12 starts and I don't see why he can't add number seven to his win total today. #7 Junior Bug definitely fits against this group and will be trying to rally off the pace to win this race or at least pick up a top three finish.


4th Race
1-4-10

#1 I’m a Mess is a half sister to the grade one winner, Toms d’Tat. She was respectable on debut and has every right to improve and start to have a career as she will stay on turf something for stakes winning mother was very good at. #4 High Fashion Kate has shown some ability in two races on turf and definitely can out run her 20-1 odds given to her on the morning line. #10 Fun Loving has not broke well from the gate in two starts and still shown some run. There’s talent here with this filly that can be unlocked at some point. Perhaps today.


5th Race
6-4-2

#6 Go Margie Go takes a huge plunge in completion. Too much for me to overlook and realize she’s very live to win at a potential good price today. #4 Stealthespotlight comes in from the West Coast seas, easier competition today. #2 Shy Shy is more than capable and getting jockey Tyler Gaffalione is a huge help and tell.


6th Race
1-5-9

#1 Make the Boys Wink did not have clear sailing last time out and then ended up costing her a better placing. This is definitely a troubled trip play if things go better today she’ll be right there. #5 Lilac Girl also found a bit of trouble last time out in her race, and she's run better in the past, even here at Keeneland which doesn't hurt her cause. #9 Beautifulnavigator has done nothing but run against stakes Company so she broke her maiden and she moves into allowance company today, which makes for a serious contender.


7th Race
2-3-8

#2 Fightertown is one of my best plays of the day. Just won his last two races, and take a slight step up in class today for a new trainer after being claimed. Should be a solid price as well with money going towards others in here. #3 Seven Flat seems to fit with this group of competition and best race comparison alone. Another one that should be a very good price, and I think he's very capable of putting together a good price and good effort combo. #8 Sant’ Antimo ran well at this level a month ago at Churchill Downs. Replication of that makes him a contender.


8th Race
6-8-3

#6 Luz Divine ran 2nd to Buchu in her last race. Buchu won the G2 Jessamine Stakes presented by Keeneland November last week. Her price will come down because of that and should. She’s the one to beat. #8 Auraculous improved greatly moving over to Grass and start to a very young career. Back on grass today look for another strong performance. #3 Extremely Gruntled makes the surface switch to turf today. That could wakener up off an ok effort on dirt. Also she goes further today which also looks like should help.