Thursday 10/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
1	1	HES GOT SWAGGER	9/5	Cullen, Travis A - 26	491.37
5	5	R THINKING MONSTER	2/1	Kelly, Colin - 19	454.55
2	2	GASCOIGNE SUNDAE	3/1	Hensley, Ed F - 27	427.70
3	3	SLICK N SPORTY	8/1	Ryan, Jason D - 14	421.84
4	4	GO NINE O	10/1	Coulter, Scott - 14	395.60
7	7	HELLO ROCKY	9/2	Fillion, Samuel - 9	392.56
8	8	MACH JACOBS	4/1	Thiessen, Daryl - 9	388.15
9	9	COIN FLIP	6/1	Macdonald, Brett A - 17	387.32
6	6	MISTER REBBILY A	12/1	Mackenzie, Paul G - 9	372.37

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 8:21 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$25000 - ***THE BREEDERS CROWN*** 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - 3RD ELIMINATION ALL HORSES REPORT TO DETENTION BY OCT 19TH BY 8:00AM

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 JAKARTA HANOVER 15/1
# 3 CHAPARMBRO 9/5
# 1 WARRAWEE MICHELLE 8/5

Really keen on the chance of JAKARTA HANOVER taking down the winner's share this time especially at a long price. Should compete admirably in this race as her style of running fits well in this group. If effort in the last race is any indication, this race horse will have a very nice shot in this one. High last race TrackMaster SR. Have to make Miller the bet here if only for the last thirty days ROI. Big probability for the victory. CHAPARMBRO - The consortium knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This interesting entrant will unlock our way to a nice victory. This filly has been running versus some of the most competitive company in this field recently. WARRAWEE MICHELLE - Filly and driver go together like two peas in a pod. They finish in the money 83 percent of their races. The handicapping group gives this interesting entrant a very nice chance to win this one, class ratings are tops in the race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
6	6	LET'S FOAL AROUND	5/2	Huckabone, Justin - 17	436.10
2	2	NIHILATED TRUTH	6/1	Parker, Brandon - 12	424.24
1	1	GRAND PRIORITY	4/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 7	423.20
3	3	CR DUDLEY	3/1	Harp, Rick - 2	409.90
4	4	CASHNCAM	5/1	Merton, Thomas - 6	395.71
7	7	SAUBLE PLAY	7/2	Taggart, Jim Jr - 19	383.10
5	5	ZONE BLITZ	10/1	Rossi, Troy - 0	373.12

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 11:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$9500 - MARYLAND PREFERRED WINNERS OR 6 PM RACES OR $50,000 LIFETIME BUT NOT MORE THAN 8 PM RACES OR $75,000 LIFETIME ROSECROFT TRACKMAN SELECTION: 7-8-3-6 ENTRIES UNCOUPLED PER MRC DRIVER CHOICES J. AHLE - 3 OVER 2 T. PORTER - 6 OVER 4 J. ROBERTS - 7 OVER 5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 8 LYONS SPIRIT 4/1
# 6 AROUND MIDNIGHT 7/2
# 5 DANGER ZONE 6/1

LYONS SPIRIT will not be denied the win in here. Worth looking at here on the basis of the rankings in the speed rating department alone. Had one of the strongest TrackMaster SRs of the field of horses in his last competition. A good idea to use in your bets. Many handicappers get behind this gelding on the driver-conditioner figures alone. AROUND MIDNIGHT - Lately Porter has been hot, which may give the edge to this colt for this race. Very high winning percent makes this harness racer an excellent pick to take home the dough. DANGER ZONE - Cannot put a finger on it, but give the nod to this gelding for a wager.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Post: 5:06 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$17000 - CLAIMING $30,000 W/ALLOWANCES DAYTON RACEWAY 15% TAKEOUT 100% NET CARRYOVER SUPERFECTA & PICK 3 S. WIDGER - LISTED 2-6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 OWEN 5/2
# 2 PEARL SNAPS 6/1
# 5 MAJOR BEAN 5/1

OWEN definitely should be supported as the harness racer to beat in this event. This gelding getting the victory wouldn't be impossible, a chance. Many selectors know speed is is key. This harness racer has credentials with a 92 avg stat. The 4 position is on fire here at Dayton Raceway. More wins than normal. PEARL SNAPS - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win percent.MAJOR BEAN - A nice win statistic has been achieved by contenders starting from the 5 post.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
6	6	HILLBILLYPACINHILL	8/5	Myers, Lucas - 10	451.61
5	5	MR PINK PIE	4/1	Walters, Justin - 7	433.18
3	3	STEEL COWBOY	9/2	Lems, Chris - 5	410.59
1	1	HAWAIIAN CHIP	9/1	Merriman, Aaron - 15	407.13
4	4	GUMBOLAYA	20/1	Killeen, Jack - 6	391.84
8	8	SUPER TACO	7/1	Indof, Jeremy - 10	372.54
2	2	DARIO HANOVER	20/1	Myers, Hunter - 14	363.25
7	7	TOUCHIN BASE	20/1	Brown, Brady - 8	362.19
9	9	DRY RIDGE ERIE	20/1	Johnston, Shawn - 6	349.64

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$14000 - NW $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OF THE BASE CLASS NW $7,500 L5 IN LAST START NE AE: WINNERS IN THE LAST START OF THE BASE CLASS NW $5,000 L5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 PEDRO HANOVER 4/1
# 3 ROCK THE DEVIL 9/2
# 4 ROLLING WITH SAM 5/2

PEDRO HANOVER is the best wager in this race. You have to favor a horse that wins a lot, very impressive win stat. Koch fits this interesting entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some magnificent results when teaming up. ROCK THE DEVIL - High winning pct makes this standardbred an excellent contender to take home the dough. Could very well be the best in the race here, showing good rankings of late. Avg speed is a solid 92. ROLLING WITH SAM - Worth taking a close look at here given the rankings in the speed figure department alone. Could very likely take this pack given the 91 TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in his most recent race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Thursday, October 19

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	10 Must Be Love 2 What's Up Bro 3 Healing Waters	2 What's Up Bro 3 Healing Waters 10 Must Be Love	2 What's Up Bro 10 Must Be Love 3 Healing Waters	10 Must Be Love 2 What's Up Bro 3 Healing Waters	10 Must Be Love 3 Healing Waters 2 What's Up Bro
2	4 In Good Taste 2 Windy Walk 9 Controlled Temper	12 Ocean Bird 4 In Good Taste 9 Controlled Temper	12 Ocean Bird 3 Shespun 10 Adeleke	6 Gloriette 4 In Good Taste 9 Controlled Temper	6 Gloriette 7 Backwoods Barbie 9 Controlled Temper
3	5 Girl Afraid 3 Home Port 6 Story Hour	5 Girl Afraid 7 Condiment Girl 1 Mischievous Gal	4 Stormy Empire 5 Girl Afraid 6 Story Hour	6 Story Hour 3 Home Port 7 Condiment Girl	5 Girl Afraid 6 Story Hour 1 Mischievous Gal
4	8 Heartbreaker 7 Sugoi 2 Soul Coaxing	3 Bird King 8 Heartbreaker 5 Beealea	6 He's Got This 2 Soul Coaxing 3 Bird King	3 Bird King 8 Heartbreaker 2 Soul Coaxing	6 He's Got This 8 Heartbreaker 9 Expensive Cut
5	2 Makeup 6 Dr. Ray D. 7 Beautiful Mischief	5 Into Stars 11 Two Sip Sally 9 Save the Mischief	5 Into Stars 11 Two Sip Sally 10 Little Miss Munny	5 Into Stars 7 Beautiful Mischief 11 Two Sip Sally	2 Makeup 11 Two Sip Sally 5 Into Stars
6	4 Shooters Shoot 2 Mailman Money 6 Derby Date	6 Derby Date 4 Shooters Shoot 5 Upstriker	6 Derby Date 3 The Queens Jules 4 Shooters Shoot	4 Shooters Shoot 6 Derby Date 3 The Queens Jules	4 Shooters Shoot 6 Derby Date 2 Mailman Money
7	6 Sir London 4 Lincoln Highway 2 Mendel's Secret	6 Sir London 10 American Diamond 1 Mackillop	6 Sir London 10 American Diamond 1 Mackillop	4 Lincoln Highway 10 American Diamond 2 Mendel's Secret	15 Grand Aspen 3 Clyde's Got a Gun 8 Ten Days Later
8	11 Winnemac Avenue 1 Princely 2 Gamer	6 Honed 1 Princely 7 Glen Airy	5 Funny Uncle 11 Winnemac Avenue 1 Princely	11 Winnemac Avenue 6 Honed 3 Dance Some Mo	9 Bright Spark 4 Jr's Gift 1 Princely
9	10 Cloudwalker 4 Wonder Wave (IRE) 2 Modern Sound	3 Satin Blue 1 Charm of the Song 2 Modern Sound	4 Wonder Wave (IRE) 9 Joke Master 1 Charm of the Song	7 Copperdrop 1 Charm of the Song 4 Wonder Wave (IRE)	4 Wonder Wave (IRE) 1 Charm of the Song 9 Joke Master

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Thursday at Keeneland!

1st Race
10-2-3

#10 Must Be Love shows up from the East Coast having run five consecutive good races. Is aggressively spotted here today in a $20,000 claiming race and gets Luis Saez who I think is primed for a big day today. #2 What’s Up Bro was an easy winner in his most recent race in Ohio, and will certainly be tested for class today but he's got races in New York. That should be good enough to win today at Keeneland. #3 Healing Waters comes also has had some good races as a light against Indiana competition wouldn’t shock in the least.


2nd Race
4-2-9

#4 In Good Taste is trained by Brad Cox and makes her debut today in a wide-open race. She's owned and bred by Barry and Joni Butzow and I think that's why they're a little bit bit more aggressive in their spotting because they bred this filly. it may work out, but also do keep in mind keep an eye on the tote board for this race. #2 Windy Walk Deb use for trainer Chris Davis and gets Luis Saez. Her trainer tells me that she's never been outworked in the morning but also says that she may need a race so let's see what happens here today. #9 Controlled Temper takes a drop-down in class off of one good race and one subpar race. If she runs the same race that she did in her first career start, she'll win, but it's inconsistency that you have to question after that second career start in which she backed up pretty abruptly.



3rd Race
5-3-6

#5 Girl Afraid in a good race at this level, and her most recent start at Saratoga at the end of August. He's trained by Robert Falcone Jr who had a winner last week in fashion, but this one will not be an upset at all with the Saez in the saddle. #3 Home Port incredibly last time out at Churchill Downs, at the same distance, and same level, that's enough for me. #6 Story Hour was claimed last time out by trainer Robert Medina, who does not claim a lot of horses. I like to look for outliers and this seems to be one of them as far as the situation this filly comes into. The fact that Robert Medina gets Tyler Gaffalione to ride certainly looks good on paper.


4th Race
8-7-2

#8 Heartbreaker is all speed and I think that at this level should be able to carry that speed to the first wire finish after being caught against tougher company in the last two races. #7 Sugoi also cut back in distance and should appreciate that move. This horse hasn't won a race in quite some time but does finish second a lot. #2 Soul Coaxing this is more of a read on Tyler Gaffalione riding this horse. His races have been OK and he also takes a drop in class and doesn't catch the most difficult field so perhaps he'll wake up today.


5th Race
2-6-7

#2 Makeup run second on debut in the mud at Ellis Park in August. Moves over to turf and start two of her career and stays at a shorter distance by doing so which I think is the idea more than anything to her. Today is the keeper in this Sharp 5 1/2 furlong race. #6 Dr. Ray D. just may turn the corner after having three different races over three different surfaces thrown at her, including a race at Kentucky Downs. She's trained by Mike Maker, one of the best in the game when it comes to turf races and I think there's some upside here today. #7 Beautiful Mischief makes start two of her career and was never involved in her debut at the end of September on dirt moves over to turf today and comes from a family that has produced turf winners.



6th Race
4-2-6

#4 Shooter Shoot might be the most likely winner today at Keeneland in my opinion. Ran well at Churchill Downs last time out has a world of that class and I know it's been a while since he's won race but he stands out amongst this group today and race number six. #2 Mailman Money back on dirt, which looks like it could move him into better form today. #6 Derby Date comes off, went up in Indiana, so will be tested for competition today with the move down to Keeneland but you've got a respect his form.


7th Race
6-4-2

#6 Sir London moves to the East Coast off of a campaign over the last few years in Southern California. In his southern California races it was all dirt and today moves over to turf and here's a horse that is a half brother to three turf winners today. The lightbulb goes on today. #4 Lincoln Highway should be aggressively written today with Luis Saez in the saddle and it seems every time the trainer Vicky Oliver put Sise on a horse. This meet at Keeneland races they run well I don't see that changing in this race. #2 Mendel’s Secret stretches back out to further races, which looks to be a positive move for this runner.



8th Race
11-1-2

#11 Winnemac Avenue takes a nice drop down in class today after trying allowance company throughout his career. Trainer Jimmy DiVito gets Tyler Gaffalione to ride, which certainly is a positive tell in my opinion. #1 Princely have to respect this horses, recent form that levels like this I seem more of the same types of races from him. #2 Gamer tries Dirk for the first time and that may be something that wakes him up after running seven times total on either synthetic course or turf courses.



9th Race
10-4-2

Cloudwalker debut today for Brendan Walsh. It was a high price purchase earlier this year at a two year-old in training. I have a hunch this one can run. #4 Wonder Wave run too good races from off the pace, and her racing experience could go along way versus this group of young horses. #2 Modern Sound back and distance and that looks like it should really work out for this filly today.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, October 19, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Claiming Crown Rapid Transit winner The Queens Jules leads a strong blue collar cast in Race 6, while the Keeneland Turf Pick Three returns to the menu and will be on Races 5,7,9. Congratulations are in order to jockey Corey Lanerie, who piloted his 5,000th career winner on Wednesday’s local card, scoring in Race 3 aboard I Feel the Need.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Cloudy skies and comfortable temps in the mid-60s are forecasted.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Dual-condition claimers start the Thursday early pick five at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others. The CD set doesn’t look appealing here, so Indy’s Healing Waters makes sense. The 3YO What’s Up Bro is a 3-time winner eligible for this dual-condition – he’s got 2 NYRA wins, but the last at Thistledown might not draw the class comparisons his form otherwise would.


2nd Race
High-end maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs to star the early pick four. Favorites are 1-9 in MCL races so far this Fall Meet, but 8 winners have been 7-1 or less and very good betting races. Churchill preppers have 4 of the wins and first-timers have been shut out. Ellis Park has a pair of victories. Speed has not held as well as past meets in these MCL sprints with the average winner more than 3 lengths back after the opening half-mile – more than 2 lengths farther back than MCL sprint par over the years. Closers via Churchill may be the play, considering the likes of Backwoods Barbie, Controlled Temper and Corkage Fee. Beyond the trends, though, rookies here look formidable like Shespun, Adeleke and Ocean Bird, so this is a total head-scratcher for me. Get a price no matter what you do.


3rd Race
Starter allowance runners clash at 6-1/2 furlongs. We’ve had 51 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets and the average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-51. But note 44 of 51 winners were 8-1 or less, including all 4 this meet between 3-1 and 5-1. These have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill preppers own 20 of the wins, far outgunning Horseshoe Indianapolis next with 5. The 4 races this Fall Meet have been spread out, however. This race has a lot of pace to it, so I’m looking for finishers like Stormy Empire and Story Hour to come knocking late. Trainer Robert Falcone has 2 wins at the meet on dirt and both with Luis Saez; they team again with Girl Afraid.


4th Race
Mid-level $32,000 claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to open the pick six. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). Early speed has been effective in all 4 claiming dirt routes so far. There’s a lot of early speed to the outside of this field in Sugoi, Heartbreaker (by strong Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed) and Expensive Cut. Bird King is a local winner, but note that came in the 6YOs career debut during the 2019 Fall Meet. Heartbreaker won here in April over 6 furlongs and stretches out to the longest race of his career. The hot pace and distance here could make He’s Got This effective after a trio of 1-1/8 miles races on the slight cut-back for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 wins at the meet on dirt.


5th Race
The swing race in the early and late pick five also will kick off the Keeneland Turf Pick Three with a 2-year-old turf sprint maiden special weight. Don’t be afraid of a price here as the average winner in 2YO turf MSW races at Kee in Fall Meets is over 9-1 odds. Experienced horses win at nearly a 5-to-1 edge over rookies, so lean to those with some running lines to evaluate. We’ve only 4 in turf sprints, however, all 4 won by horses within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Sire Into Mischief has 2 of those winners and offers Into Stars from an advantageous post. Remember posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge here at big prices in full-field turf sprints at any class level. The 2 such races so far this meet were won by posts 4 and 5 at 4-1 and 11-1, respectively. Kentucky Downs preppers hold a 19-13 edge over CD in Fall 2YO turf MSWs. Trainer Ian Wilkes’ 5 wins in these races are tied for most and he has CD prepped Save the Mischief. Mike Maker also has 5 such wins and sends out Dr. Ray D. via KD.


6th Race
Upper-end $50,000 claimers sprint 7 furlongs to start the late pick four. Favorites are 5 of 13 in claiming races to start this Fall Meet, but 4 winners were $20-plus payoffs (average 6-1). Wins are evenly distributed among Churchill (4), Indy (3) and Ellis (2). We’ve had 16 Fall Meet open claiming races for $50,000 level or higher with 6 winning favorites and 15 of 16 winners at 8-1 or less. Mike Maker’s 3 wins in these events are most of any trainer and he’ll have Upstrike, a horse claimed 5 times in 2023 alone. Derby Date’s local victory came here sprinting 6F in Spring 2021 in a MSW. Lucky Boss won here in Fall 2022 over 7F, the same meet in which The Queens Jewels won a 6F sprint.


7th Race
Entry-level (N1X) allowance runners meet at 1-1/16 miles on grass for the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Turf allowance races have been total chalk this meet so far with 7 of 10 favorites winning and not a single payoff above 4-1 odds. The average winner in 1-1/16 miles turf races this meet so far has been 5 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, playing heavily toward late runners. Five winners hailed from Kentucky Downs preps, no other circuit more than 1 winner so far. The KD set here is Mednel’s Secret (trainer Mike Maker has second-most Kee turf ALW wins in Fall Meets) and American Diamond. Trainer Graham Motion has the most Kee fall turf ALW wins and counters with Sir London. Trainer Ian Wilkes had 3 winners last week and sends out Mackillop.


8th Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt in this one. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for Princely and Winnemac Avenue. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is Funny Uncle’s open maiden special weight at Oaklawn.


9th Race
The finale wraps the Keeneland Turf Pick Three and is a split division of Race 5’s 2-year-old turf sprint maiden special weight. Don’t be afraid of a price here as the average winner in 2YO turf MSW races at Kee in Fall Meets is over 9-1 odds. Experienced horses win at nearly a 5-to-1 edge over rookies, so lean to those with some running lines to evaluate. We’ve only 4 in turf sprints, however, all 4 won by horses within a half-length of the lead after the first half-mile. Remember posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge here at big prices in full-field turf sprints at any class level. The 2 such races so far this meet were won by posts 4 and 5 at 4-1 and 11-1, respectively. Posts 3-4 are occupied by experienced runners here in Satin Blue and Wonder Wave. Kentucky Downs preppers hold a 19-13 edge over CD in Fall 2YO turf MSWs. Trainer Ian Wilkes’ 5 wins in these races are tied for most and he has KD prepped Charm of the Song. Mike Maker also has 5 such wins and sends out Joke Master via KD.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Race comments for Thursday Oct 19

1st Race
Kicking off the day with conditioned claimers can be humbling; 10-Must Be Love appears a deserving favorite with a couple runner-up finishes against similar up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Gelding can lead or stalk and gets top jock Louis Saez. 2-What's Up Bro moves up off a win against easier; in good form for a shrewd trainer in Larry Rivelli and he can also sit close. 3-Healing Waters is ultra consistent and exits Indiana allowance company. Appears to fit with these and is definitely an exotics play.


2nd Race
6-Gloriette drops in for a claiming price for Ben Colebrook, who closed out Wednesday's program with the late double--both of which were ridden by Luann Muchado. Speed and class relief make this filly the pick at a price over first timers 4-In Good Taste or 3-Shespun, both of whom are working well for good trainers. 9-Controlled Temper is also interesting off the drop for Dallas Stewart who is 40% for the fall meet.


3rd Race
With a lot of speed potentially in this 6-1/2 furlong starter allowance, 6-Story Hour may be able to get the trip under Tyler Gaffalione. The filly was claimed out of her last race, a third against similar company. Third start following a layoff, change of scenery and pace to run down all make her interesting at a price. 3-Home Port ran well last out with similar and a duplication of that effort makes her a top player. 7-Condiment Girl part of the early pace and most likely to succeed amongst the frontrunners although the distance might be a stretch.


4th Race
3-Bird King moves up off a win and finds a relatively soft, comfortable place to land. Gelding has won previously at Keeneland and is very effective at the distance. 2-Soul Chasing comes off the layoff for a trainer who can get one ready and, on his best day, is good enough to win. 8-Heartbreaker appears the one to catch in his first try at 1-1/16 miles.


5th Race
Babies sprinting on the grass are always wide open although this one has a couple who seem to stand out. 5-Into Stars is a half sister to Mo Bills--a two time, back to back winner. The Into Mischief filly ran two solid efforts in New York and is reunited with Prat, who rode her to a runner up finish at Saratoga on dirt in a trip that was less than ideal. The Keeneland Sept. Sales graduate for $250,000 will likely get bet down to favorite but makes a lot of sense. 7-Beautiful Mischief is a full sister to graded stakes winner Engage, and while her debut on dirt wasn't great, she should be much better off on turf. 11-Two Sip Sally is another who will get over bet following a runner up finish on grass at Kentucky Downs. Competition there was suspect but her effort was solid.


6th Race
4-Shooters Shoot rops to an all time low and appears the standout with good back form in graded stakes. Gelding has been running well recently, just shy of hitting the winners circle and the drop in class should get him over the hump. 6-Derby Date is second more than first but nevertheless a consistent check getter and game runner even at the age of 7. Gelding is in good form and can get a share of this $50,000 claiming group. 3-The Queens Jules races off the layoff with a good record at Keeneland.


7th Race
The featured race 7 for first level allowance runners on turf is wide open and kicking off the late pick 3, a good place to go for a long shot. 4-Lincoln Highway had trouble in his last at Churchill Downs and has previously run well with some nice horses. Going back to the 1-1/16 miles should help him stay closer, which will be key in a relatively pace less race. 10-American Diamond moves up off a win at Kentucky Downs and appears talented enough but barn has been quiet so far and the gelding needs a bit of pace to run at. Demand fair odds of greater than 9-2 to play, but fits with these. 2-Mendel's Secret has enough early turn of foot to surprise in his second start following a break.


8th Race
11-Winnemac Avenue can sit close to the pace in a relatively pace-less situation. The colt exits allowance company for the first time and has put together a decent record on the dirt. Like that he attracts Tyler Gaffalione. 6-Honed also drops to a new low but does his best work from off the pace without much speed to run down here. Good enough to win, just not sure he gets a good set up. 3-Dance Some Mo is the other likely speed horse in the race and while he doesn't win much, he comes close most of the time--including with better. Solid horse to include in exotics.


9th Race
Wide open maiden special weight on turf to close the card--another good race to spread to end all the multi race sequences. 7-Copperdrop debuts for Steve Asmussen with some solid morning works and is a half sister to three foals who all won first time out including stakes winners Echo Again, Costa Terra and Pneumatic and even the mother Teardrop won her debut. 1-Charm of the Song benefits from experience and looks capable of a nice late kick although the rail might be problematic. 4-Wonder Wave was the beaten favorite in her most recent start and can sit close to the pace. Take your pick!

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa

The great thing about counting down the Keeneland meetings is that two of horse racing's most magnificent events rest at the end of them: the Kentucky Derby in the spring and the Breeders' Cup in the fall. So even though we're more than halfway home for fall 2023 beneath the Dogwoods, things are really getting exciting in the world of Thoroughbred racing!
We started the week with a winner but not a winning day. Still, my psyche is feeling the effects of that donut on day 3, so I'm glad to at least not have taken the collar again. Let's get this party bus back on track (yes, a mixed metaphor for your Thursday pleasure). 86-18-17-10 (20.9% win, 52.3% ItM, -22.2 ROI)

1st Race
I seem to have a bent for these Larry Rivelli trainees who make a pit stop at Jack Thistledown before shipping to Keeneland, but what's not to like about #2 What's Up Bro making his second start for the power barn and Jareth Loveberry keeping the mount after getting a feel for him in the Cleveland area. I leaned on the deuce over the trey mainly for price considerations. I think they're close in talent but expect #3 Healing Waters to be the shorter price.

PICKS: 2-3-9-4 against 10

2nd Race
I can't imagine we're getting 6-to-1 on #4 In Good Taste considering the workouts in tow for this one--even if they were at Horseshoe Indianapolis versus locally, but I see that a vote of confidence that the barn wants to ship this one in for a bigger pot (even as a "maiden claiming" race it's worth double what she'd run for in maiden special weight at Horseshoe). I hate #12 Ocean Bird on the far outside, but the dam has thrown two two-year-old winners from both starters, and the workouts look good. #3 Shespun makes as much sense as the two I've already mentioned, but at 7-to-2 morning line is shorter on value.

PICKS: 4-12-3-1-2

3rd Race
Right back at a similar level from the first start off the claim for trainer Robert Falcone, but with a brief freshening. Projects to get a right trip behind speed to her inside and outside. #6 Story Hour fresh in the Robert Medina barn after cashing a bunch of checks for Ian Wilkes and then selling for $50,000. This is Medina's third lifetime claim, so not a lot to go on there.

PICKS: 5-6-2-3-7

4th Race
Meet of the card here is very competitive, and we landed on #3 Bird King, who is in good form at Parx the past two months and now gets a little bit of a class test against better at Keeneland, but the running style matches up with figuring a good trip against this group, and the numbers are right there with all other contenders at a nice 4-to-1 morning line. #5 Beelea is the other with number power, and despite the 3-to-1 morning line might get overlooked here for an unknown-to-the-Kentucky-crowd trainer in Eduardo Rodriguez, but his efforts running late in Illinois match up with these.

PICKS: 3-5-9-7

5th Race
Toughest race on the card with a full field of two-year-old fillies expected for this turf sprint, so why not swing a little bit with #15 Happy Baytown, who will need three scratches to draw in but is absolutely dangerous if she does given she has already run well from the outside in a turf sprint. #2 Makeup doesn't exactly scream turf with this pedigree, and I'm a little concerned that trainer Steve Asmussen already making that call with this $260,000 purchase considering the debut in the mud was fine, but that number was just too good to ignore even with the change in variables. #5 Into Stars seems totally committed to turf and shortening up here could wake her up with Prat back aboard. #11 Two Sip Sally is the 5-to-2 morning line favorite and feels like too competitive a race to take chalk here, but trainer Brendan Walsh has great numbers in second turf race and jockey Tyler Gaffalione getting a leg up to shorten up after wide journey on debut makes her the one to hold off.

PICKS: 15-2-5-11-16-10

The $3 all-turf Pick 3 returns, and you know the drill: impossible to know how to play this without scratches--especially since I picked #15 in all three races of the bet!


6th Race
#6 Derby Date been ultra consistent this summer shipping to Illinois then Indiana after struggling a bit at Ellis. He has a win at Keeneland, and although is 0/3 at 7 furlongs, should like that distance against this group. #4 Shooters Shoot made a big move first in Diodoro's barn last out and now cuts back a bit to 7 furlongs with Tyler Gaffalione getting aboard on the drop in class.

PICKS: 6-4-2

7th Race
The biggest hurdle between #15 Grand Aspen and the winner's circle is the also eligible list. Best bet if gets to draw in but will need help from the scratch board for sure. Of those in the main body, #5 Endpoint ran great when breaking maiden in turf debut off a layoff. Then tried to go all the way off the turf next out and got caught, but that was a sharp effort. Freshened for this and back to turf. #6 Sir London sheds blinks in first start with H. Graham Motion. We'll see what turf has in store, but three sibs have won on the sod and could be a front-end threat.

PICKS: 15-5-6-10

8th Race
Heavy "new trainer" theme to today's picks with #2 Gamer continuing the trend. Steve Asmussen got this one for himself for $50,000 at start of Saratoga meeting, and he's worked forwardly in Kentucky since, training at three different tracks before showing up here against $80,000 foes. Keith up for dad. Dangerous at a price. #1 Princely might be up against it pace wise, so hoping for a touch better than 4-to-1 against this group but numbers wise looks strong.

PICKS: 2-1-3-4

9th Race
#15 Tipsy Runner has made strong moves in each of her starts but stalled. She'll need to draw in and even if so will find herself on the outside again (was post 10 of 10 last out) but she's shown enough interest in afternoons to run her back at a big price if in. #13 Destiny Star made a furious rally on debut at Saratoga, a tall order for Ohio-based connections, but they tried. If none of the AEs come in then #4 Wonder Wave is among the most likely winners on the day. First-time starters #7 Copperdrop and #12 Lola's Light merit paddock views for final determination.

PICKS: 15-13-4-7-12

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

I didn't find myself gravitating to many favorites today so you could catch a few prices on this card. Good luck!

1st Race
2-What's Up Bro ran well first time out for the Rivelli barn and now they ship into Keeneland for the next start. Betting that this one is ready to fire. 3-Healing Waters has been consistent but that's been against Indiana-breds. 10-Must Be Love makes the second start for a new barn and this gelding has been posting consistent figures and finishes.


2nd Race
12-Ocean Bird comes of the Norm Casse barn and their runners have done well in a limited number of starts at this meet. A couple of local works adds to the appeal for this one. 4-In Good Taste is a first-timer for the Cox barn but this one hasn't been training with the first-stringers for this outfit. 9-Controlled Temper ran second to a nice-looking runner in his first time out. 7-Backwoods Barbie runs for a barn whose runners do better with a start or two under their belts.


3rd Race
The Falcone barn's runners have come to Kentucky ready to fire their best shots and 5-Girl Afraid is the next one for this barn. And this filly showed significant improvement in the first start for this trainer. 7-Condiment Girl ran a race two starts back that would stack up well with this group. 1-Mischievous Gal runs first off the claim for Diodoro and he has good numbers with new acquisitions.


4th Race
3-Bird King gets the nod here. His last two races have been among his best. 8-Heartbreaker threw in a clunker off a short break but those races from back in the summer would put this gelding in the mix. 5-Beealea has won two in a row and now steps up in class. 1-What a Country has shown some promise in the past and now he makes the first start for the Asmussen barn.


5th Race
5-Into Stars ran well in both starts and Prat is especially tough on the grass (just go back and watch his ride in the Franklin Stakes last Sunday). 11-Two Sip Sally didn't get much help in the post draw but a repeat of that debut outing at Kentucky Downs makes her a challenger. 9-Save the Mischief had her debut race rained off the grass and the Wilkes barn runners have been firing here this fall. 2-Makeup could be tough with her early speed if she transfers her form to the grass.


6th Race
6-Derby Date made a significant jump on the Beyer figure scale last time and now ships into Keeneland and it's the first start this meet for this trainer. 4-Shooters Shoot has good speed and strong local connections but this one hasn't won much lately and that makes it tough to take a short price. 5-Upstriker has three wins this year and it's Maker and Saez. 3-The Queens Jules has 13 lifetime wins and that merits respect.


7th Race
6-Sir London is a newcomer to the Motion barn but he's had time to four works in this one and now Motion sends this one to Keeneland and gets Gafflione to ride. Guessing this one is ready to fire. 10-American Diamond comes off a win and gets Johnny V in the saddle. 1-Mackillop shows two good starts since moving into the Wilkes barn. 8-Ten Days Later ran well off a long layoff with a big figure jump but the surface change is a question. 5-Endpoint improved when moved to the turf.


8th Race
I'm betting the McPeek barn gets to the winner's circle but with which one of their two runners? I'll lean to 6-Honed mainly because that's where go-to rider Brian Hernandez, Jr. shows up. This colt ran well off a layoff and showed a little more early speed than before. 1-Previously has running winning races in his last two outs but barely missed. 7-Glen Airy had a nice win last time but now must face winners. It's worth noting this barn points runners for the meets here.


9th Race
3-Satin Blue took some money first time out but then broke slowly from the gate in one of those tough Kentucky Downs races. Saez riding is plus and this one has worked well. 1-Charm of the Song is a second-out runner from the Wilkes barn and their horses tend to improve with experience. 2-Modern Sound ran big in a turf sprint in the debut but didn't handle the stretchout well. 10-Cloudwalker is a first-timer from the dangerous Walsh barn. 13-Destiny Star is a threat if she draws in, off that race at Saratoga.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Thursday October 19, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#15 Grand Aspen – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#8 Ten Days Later – minimum win betting odds – 7 to 2
#5 Endpoint – minimum win betting odds 7 to 2
#10 American Diamond – minimum win betting odds 9 to 2
#3 Clyde’s Got a Gun – minimum win betting odds 9 to 2

If Grand Aspen draws into the race from the also-eligible lists he’s the one to beat but if not the race is quite wide open. This is a first level allowance race on the turf and seven of the entrants have run well enough to finish first or second in their most recent races, while many of the others have good efforts in previous similar races. Grand Aspen returned from 11 months off in July and changed barns to the top Pletcher stable. In spite of being off nearly a year he led late and ended up second of 12 in a two-turn turf race, then he improved considerably to win by almost five lengths one month later. Stepped up to this level last month, he battled head-and-head for the entire last eighth of a mile but fell short by a few inches. That was by far the fastest race in the field, evidenced by a 108 Equibase Speed figure, so repeating it or improving upon the effort should make him tough to beat.
As I wrote earlier, if Grand Aspen does not run, there are at least a quartet of horses which can win and some may offer high odds. Ten Days Later also returned from a long layoff recently, near the end of December and after being off for nearly nine months. He ran very well in a two-turn dirt route to be second of ninth and should improve off that effort, and his outside post which might be a disadvantage for some might not be for him because he comes from far back to jockey Lanerie can drop him in towards the rear before the field hits the first turn so he won’t lose ground. Ten Days Later rallied from seventh of 12 and from the 12 post to win a dirt route under Lanerie at Keeneland in the spring, and although he finished third in his only grass race he has the breeding to run well on the grass so fits the conditions nicely.
Endpoint returned to the races in July following seven months off and has run two “A” races since then, first a win at a mile on turf and then a defeat by a neck in a race scheduled for grass but run on the main track. Jockey Corrales was up for both and rides back and so Endpoint is another who deserves respect when considering who can win this race.
American Diamond won in a tough 11 horse field at Kentucky Downs at a mile last month, also winning a two turn turf race in January. Perhaps most importantly, he earned his first win at Keeneland at this distance on grass and his trainer keeps his horses in good form as they have won back to back better than 20% of the time. He can race close up early or come from far back to his post may not hurt his chances of success.
Clyde’s Got a Gun fits perfectly at this first allowance level as he broke his maiden last month in a similar turf race, improving nicely off his third place career debut effort one month earlier. He should continue to improve and rounds out a very well-matched group of win contenders.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim Nelson

Thursday's card has been a challenge to handicap with 9 very competitive races. Look for some solid payoffs as none of the races show a runaway favorite.

1st Race
#10 Must Be Love has been a very consistent runner with similar company at this distance. He draws kind of a tough post but his early foot should help him overcome. #3 Healing Waters comes over in good form with 2 starts under his belt this year. Finishing first and second in those starts he looks good with these. #2 What's Up Bro exits a strong win and past form is strong enough to suggest he is a player here. Top Picks #10, #3 and #2


2nd Race
#6 Gloriette has faced some tough maiden company in her last 3 starts and her improvement in each start is noted. She looks bred to sprint and like her for the win here. #7 Backwoods Barbie is making her 3rd career start and adds blinkers for this one. Her experience edge over most of these and level of fitness should put in the middle of the dash for the wire. #9 Controlled Temper goes for the tag for the first time in her short career. Look for her to improve in this start and land a share. Top Picks #6, #7 and #9


3rd Race
#5 Girl Afraid brings the early foot to this in her 3rd off the layoff. A good 2nd last time with similar she lands Luis Saez in the saddle and looks tough in here. #6 Story Hour is first off the claim and past form suggests she fits well with these. Tyler Gaffalione handles the reins. #1 Mischievous Gal is also first off the claim for a barn that wins at 21% with this type. A couple of solid works over the Keeneland main course suggests she's ready. Top Picks #5, #6 and #1


4th Race
#6 He's Got This is on the drop from his most recent starts for the Hartman barn. Like the back up in distance here and all things point to a big effort from this guy. #8 Heartbreaker showed little in his last but was first back. Trying softer this time and his back form suggest he can easily run with these. #9 Expensive Cut has strong Beyer numbers for this field and is a distance specialist. Top Picks #6, #8 and #9


5th Race
#2 Makeup showed the way in her first try and stayed on to finish 2nd over a muddy course. Expect her to move forward over the turf course and make her way to the winner's circle. #11 Two Sip Sally has the best Beyer number of those who have raced posting a 71 to finish 2nd at Kentucky Downs. A bit of a tough post here but can't leave out. #5 Into Stars has hit the board in both career starts and comes over with the Brad Cox barn. Top Picks #2, #11 and #5


6th Race
#4 Shooters Shoot is dropping in class for this one and could get his confidence back with these. He is a Graded Stakes placed runner in past form and distance here suits him. #6 Derby Date has been in top form recently hitting the board in all 4 of his starts this year including a win last out. Look for him to continue to pick up a check. #2 Mailman Money is back on the dirt after a couple of tries on the grass. Like him for part. Top Picks #4, #6 and #2


7th Race
#15 Grand Aspen will be the top pick if he draws in. A solid performer over the lawn in his last 3 starts and look for a sharp effort here. #3 Clyde's Got a Gun was an impressive winner last out breaking his maiden easily going a route of ground on the grass. He looks like the real deal. #8 Ten Days Later settled for 2nd in his first off the layoff with similar company. He is trying the grass for the first time but should move over it nicely and this is his 2nd time Lasix. Top Picks #15, #3 and #8


8th Race
#9 Bright Spark is making his 3rd off the summer vacation and could find his winning stride with these. He has a late kick that could prove very effective. #4 Jr's Gift tried similar last time and finished a strong 2nd. His Beyers are very competitive here. #1 Princely has been in good form lately and deserves a look. Top Picks #9, #4 and #1


9th Race
#4 Wonder Wave has a couple of races at this distance under her belt hitting the board in both. Bejarano stays on board for this one and look for a solid performance. #1 Charm of the Song turned in a good effort in her first try considering she broke from post 12 going 6 furlongs at Kentucky Downs. She got caught wide the whole trip and hopefully the inside draw will improve her chances. #9 Joke Master caught a rough trip last out and can forgive that one. Earlier form suggest she can run with these. Top Picks #4, #1 and #9