Saturday 10/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on West Virginia+7.5

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Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Maryland has had two full weeks to stew over a two-game losing streak. I look for the Terrapins to come out and blast the Wildcats on Saturday. Northwestern hung tough on the road against Nebraska last Saturday, ultimately losing by eight points but securing a never-in-doubt ATS cover. Note that the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS victory, outscored by an average margin of 25.8 points in that situation. We've already seen Northwestern lose by margin here at home this season, dropping a 41-13 decision against Penn State on September 30th. Meanwhile, the Terps have proven they can win by margin on the road, crushing Michigan State 31-9 on September 23rd. Last year's game between these two teams was close with the Terps winning by seven at home. I don't believe this rematch will be as Maryland 'gets right' and ends its losing skid in convincing fashion. Take Maryland-14 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-28-23

Maryland @ Northwestern (12:00 PM EST)
Play On: Maryland -14

The Maryland Terrapins travel to Northwestern to take on the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Maryland is 5-2 overall this year while Northwestern comes in with a 3-4 overall record on the season. Northwestern averages only 99.9 rushing yards per game and 299.3 total yards per game this year. Maryland averages 281.4 passing yards per game this season. Maryland is scoring 33.4 points per game overall this year. Northwestern is scoring only 15 points per game their past 3 games overall and 16.5 points per game against conference opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Maryland on Saturday afternoon! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On South Carolina vs Texas A&M under 52

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Central Florida-6.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Texas A&M -16.5 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Newcastle United -125

Even with some injury issues, Newcastle is better than you might think. Sixth spot in the Prem. League, 24 goals for and only 9 against. That's tied for 6th in the standings but the +15 goal differential is the best in the entire league. With 11 goals scored and 15 conceded, Wolverhampton isn't nearly as strong. Go with United.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on North Texas+7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Florida+14.5 -115

Maybe Wisconsin knew what it was doing all along. The Badgers were thrilled to land prize quarterback recruit Graham Mertz. However, Mertz was a major disappointment at Wisconsin. He's lived up to his high ceiling after transferring to Florida.

Mertz has a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his 76.2 completion percentage is the third-highest in the nation. The combination of Mertz and Florida's defense make the Gators a worthy underdog.

Georgia is the No. 1 ranked team in the country at 7-0. It's also made the Bulldogs overpriced in nearly all of their games. Georgia has failed to cover in six of its seven games. The only cover the Bulldogs have was beating Ball State by 42 points as a 41 1/2-point favorite back in Week 2.

Carson Beck is a good, but not a great quarterback. He's going against a Florida defense that gives up just 20 points a game and ranks 17th in total yards. Beck will be minus his top receiver and best playmaker, injured star tight end Brock Bowers.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE PLAY: Virginia+19

Game 131.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

As of posting this, Free Play, my friends, reports are that Miami quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke is expected to play (check status). Last week in his absence, backup QB, Emory Williams played very well in the teams, 28-20 outright win, has a 6.5-point ‘dog over rival Clemson, 28-20. Yes, the Hurricanes are a better team on paper. But can you really see this team being nearly a three-touchdown favorite? I don't. They've played solid football, no question about that. But I expect them to be in a big “letdown” mode here for sure. They don't have the easiest schedule upcoming either, as next week they have the Wolfpack on the road, followed by the Seminoles also on the road. I think this is an ideal opportunity to get them in a letdown situation, and possibly even a “look ahead” spot. The Cavaliers, have covered the last three meetings in this series. And looking closely, the last five meetings have been separated by 3, 8, 5, 2, and 2 points. These two teams play each other very tightly. Coming into this contest, Virginia has won their last two outings straight up, and has covered four consecutive games. This does include both away games. At 2-5 overall, the best the Cavaliers can hope for is a Bowl bid. Granted, Virginia doesn't possess the most impressive numbers on either side of the ball. But they can certainly keep this game a lot closer than the 19-point spread (as of post). Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on California +10.5

The Key: The USC Trojans have been the most overrated team in the country in their last 5 games. The are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 89.5 points in those 5 ATS losses. Off 2 straight losses to Notre Dame and Utah, and with 3 huge games on deck against Washington, Oregon and UCLA, this is a clear sandwich spot for USC. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team quit on their season, starting with an upset loss at California this week. I like the situation for Cal coming off a bye. They gave Oregon State all they wanted in their last home game and scored 40 points, but it wasn't enough in a 52-40 defeat. They will be able to score at will on this soft USC defense that yields 20.5 PPG this year, including 39.0 PPG in road games. Cal only lost 35-41 at USC as 21.5-point favorites last year. Given that the Bears are off a bye and the tired Trojans are playing for a 6th consecutive week, the price is too good to pass up on the double-digit home dog here. Take California.

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on CAL+10.5

This is the dream crusher spot for UCLA, after losing to Utah last week they will not win the Pac12 and they aren't going to the playoffs. Caleb Williams is no longer in the running for the Heisman. Now they are a double digit favorite on the road against an inferior opponent, but this might be a tough game to get up for. USC has allowed an average of 191 rushing yards per game in their last three, and they could struggle to contain Jaydn Ott. Cal is coming off a bye, and that might allow them to give the Trojans a run for their money here this week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Alex Smart

South Alabama has been downright explosive recently and are off back to back 55 point outputs in successive games , while averaging 617 yards and roll into this matchup against visiting Lafayette with massive momentum. Im not going to step in front of this freight train and will instead hitch a ride to what Im betting will be a win and cover for the home fav.

CFB home team vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - a top caliber team (+14 or more PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, after scoring 50 points or more last game are 31-1 L/31 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +24.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this /ats offering.

CFB home team vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 50-6 L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of +17.6 .

Play on S.Alabama to cover-10

[ConleyPicks]

ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Free Pick
Free Play: Tennessee-175

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Vols look to bounce back after blowing a lead in the second half at Alabama. The Vols are 8-2 SU in the last 10 versus Kentucky, and 4-1 SU in their last five at Kentucky.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Kentucky +4

I like the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats this week. They opened 5-0 but ran out of gas in their losses to Georgia and Missouri. Now they are coming off their bye week with a chance to reset, and I look for a big effort from them at home Saturday night against the Tennessee Vols.

This is a terrible spot for Tennessee. The Vols blew a 20-7 lead at Alabama last week and allowed the final 27 points in a 34-20 defeat. That was their 2nd SEC loss of the season and it all but eliminated them from SEC East contention. Kentucky did not respond well from its loss to Georgia, and I think we see a similar effort here from Tennessee following its loss to Alabama.

The Vols have played two true road games this season and are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS. They also lost 29-16 at Florida as 5-point favorites. Kentucky beat Florida 33-14 at home as 1-point favorites in a dominant effort, which came the game before Georgia.

Tennessee needs to be able to run the football to have success because QB Joe Milton just isn't a very accurate passer. The Vols average 217 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. Well, it will be rough sledding on the ground against Kentucky, which allows just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season. Kentucky's defensive strength cancels out Tennessee's offensive strength here.

The statistical profile of these teams is very similar this season. Kentucky outgains opponents 6.4 to 5.2 yards per play, or by an average of 1.2 yards per play. Tennessee outgains opponents 6.1 to 4.6 yards per play, or by 1.5 yards per play. So while the Vols have been slightly better, the spot more than cancels it out in favor of Kentucky off the bye. There's clearly value catching 4 points with the Wildcats at home here, especially in a night game where the crowd is going to be even more rowdy.

Each of the last three meetings between Kentucky and Tennessee in Lexington were decided by 4 points or less. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kentucky) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Kentucky Saturday.