Sunday 11/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:06 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 11/12/23

November 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar – Sunday, November 12, 2023
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Today’s Best Plays:
Fourth Race (2:00 PT)
2-MAHINA (3-1)
Turned in by far her top performance in her sixth career outing when relaxing off the pace until the top of the stretch before exploding through the lane to win going away with a turn of foot never before seen from the daughter of Bolt d’Oro. That maiden claiming win at Santa Anita last month got her eligible to this starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares, and if the Paddy Gallagher-trained sophomore duplicates that level of performance today she should be able to handle this raise in class. Look for Umberto Rispoli to employ similar patient, one run tactics with this well bred filly that should offer plenty of wagering value at or near her morning line of 3-1.

Seventh Race (3:30 PT)
2-EL REY REY (7/2)
Displayed a considerable amount of promise and ability in his racing debut despite a less than ideal trip when a fast finishing fourth (before galloping out in front) in a turf sprint debut last month that was much more impressive than the running line shows. In that six furlong dash, the son of BC Mile Turf winner Karakontie was off slowly and allowed to lag early, commenced in his rally into the lane, had to alter course sharply to secure room inside the furlong pole and then took hold to gobble up ground before running out of room. Entered back on November 2 but failing to draw in from the also eligible list, the Jeff Mullins-trained colt stretches out to what should be much more suitable distance today and with good racing luck seems likely to earn his diploma and then go on to bigger and better things.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 12, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse wraps up the weekend with a compact 8-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

2-Adalecia (2-1)-Hung on for a gate to wire win in a well-rated mile. If this filly gets the top and goes to the half in 58.1 the same thing can happen again. But not sure it will be that easy.
3-Dandy's Ms Swifty (4-1)-Closed in 56.4 going the last quarter in .28 but it wasn't enough to catch the one above. Started from post 8 that night and had missed a start, so will look for a stronger effort this time.

Race 6

2-Brooklets Banner (2-1)-Comes off a nifty gate to wire score, steps up and comes right back. Appears to be healthy, has raced his way into shape and shouldn't have an issue competing with this group if dialed on high.
7-Fox Valley Carlin (3-1)-Left from post 8 last week and beat 5 from this field. Could be the race time favorite and should be battling to snag the one above down the lane.

Race 7

1-Isle Coach (3-1)-Drops in for a tag after being stuck with the 8 and 9 hole in the last 2 starts. Gets post relief and a positive driver change with Bates between the pipes. Needs to be stronger down the lane to take a picture and could get a more efficient trip tonight.
4-Telstar (2-1)-Beat this kind last week and set a new lifetime mark. That was the 1st win in 9 Haw starts and this race probably goes through the 3-year-old.

Race 8

1-Ideal's Nicole (8/5)-Drops in for a tag and should be a small price. Bates gets the call and that pilot won with this mare on 10-7. That night, Nicole got the top and went to the half in .58. If she gets that kind of respect again, she could draw off by over 3 lengths like she did then.
4-Dune Dame (3-1)-Team Leonard entry probably needs a perfect trip to win. Last time she got bottled up on the rail and had to be swung wide to get rolling down the lane. Finished a beaten 4th but could land in the pocket behind the chalk here. Probably will be over bet but should be in the hunt.
5-Bootsy Bombay (7-1)-Camera shy mare comes out of the same race as the one above. Had some good wins here as a 2-year-old and will swing for a price in what appears to be a chalky sequence. Did close last time but took too long to get rolling. To win Seekman need to be racing with the leaders at the top of the turn and then finish with some gusto.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,3/2,7/1,4/1,4,5
Total Bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:07 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#1 Gold Foot	He hasn't been able to punch home in a couple sprint tries so far, but he's probably quick enough to find a good spot from the fence while stretching out for the first time. Wouldn't be shocked to see better.
#5 American Hope	Think he has a right to be tough off a useful debut run in which he rallied nicely going short, and the pedigree suggests the move around two turns isn't going to set him back a whole lot.
#4 Bandwagon	He moved forward nicely in the second career start and now ships out to try the local course. Little concerned that he'll give away ground again late.
Race Summary	Gold Foot hasn't done much yet through two starts, but he gets around two turns for the first time and might have a bit of upside while trying a route without blinkers here.

Del Mar - Race #8

#7 Carmen Miranda	Think she's going to be in the right kind of spot with some good positional pace and the ability to relax just a touch off horses. Question of class, but that might keep the price appealing enough.
#8 Rose Dawson	Something like her two-back run would keep her in the mix again, but I'm worried she'll be a bit overbet with overall form that leaves a bit to be desired.
#1 Chancery Way	She's a good fit on class and has some dangerous pace from the fence, and I'm not sure she's going to take a ton of heat from down here today. Obvious player.
Race Summary	Carmen Miranda has the right style to find a good spot in here, and that should at least give her a chance to see how she stacks up with a few classier players.

Del Mar - Race #9

#8 Subsidize	He has some proving to do around two turns, but he's trying a softer group at this kind of trip today, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him come alive late to land this.
#3 Cali Bay	He has been a good fit around this kind of level in recent starts, and he's one of the most likely winners in this crew, but I worry the price is going to be shorter than it should be while facing some others with high enough ceilings to score.
#5 Soulmate	He's another with a pretty clear claim on top honors while bringing running lines against better with him. He is fairly one paced, but he classes up nicely in here and wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Subsidize might be just playable enough on the board if the other listed pair take a bit of cash, and I think he has some of the more reliable finishing form in here -- which might be exactly what this is calling out for.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $35,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 3:04P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 12, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $25,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FIVEFIVE SIX CHAMP is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * NOBLE DRAMA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Pow er Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DESERT RULER: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Pow er Rating. ROD TWO ROD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	NOBLE DRAMA	5/2	9/2
4	DESERT RULER	2/1	5/1
7	ROD TWO ROD	6/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	FIVEFIVE SIX CHAMP	6	12/1	Front-runner	86	85	68.4	72.0	60.5
4	DESERT RULER	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	90	78.0	87.8	82.3
7	ROD TWO ROD	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	90	73.8	83.4	77.9
3	COPPERMASTER	3	3/1	Trailer	83	87	57.2	62.0	52.5
2	NOBLE DRAMA	2	5/2	Trailer	100	98	55.4	88.2	83.2
5	HUNTER	5	8/1	Trailer	96	86	42.0	64.2	54.7
1	SLIM MAN	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	94	96	93.2	73.3	64.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 27 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. REY WILLIAM is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * KRYPTON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designat ion. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SPEED DEMON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ra ting. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	KRYPTON	10/1	3/1
6	SPEED DEMON	3/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	SPEED DEMON	6	3/1	Front-runner	67	56	69.4	48.4	45.4
1	RAMWIL'S CHROME	1	7/2	Front-runner	63	56	57.0	39.0	32.5
4	LITTLE JUNIOR V.	4	2/1	Stalker	59	50	50.0	33.8	24.8
2	KRYPTON	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	60	67.4	60.4	55.9
5	JAQUE MATE COCO	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	32	37	51.4	39.4	29.4
3	REY WILLIAM	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	59	42	49.4	42.6	32.6
7	ST ANDRES	7	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	52	46	40.2	36.6	24.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14800 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MANDALAI BAY 3/1
# 7 FIRST CORONADO 12/1
# 4 JANES IVORY 6/1

I think MANDALAI BAY is a respectable choice. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 57 Equibase speed fig which is one of the strongest in this group of horses in this race. She has earned formidable numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses. JANES IVORY - Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group as of late. Facing a much easier group than last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#3 MISS FORT (ML=6/1)
#4 MARKET OF STOCKS (ML=4/1)
#2 MS SUEDOO (ML=4/1)

MISS FORT - This mare hasn't won in her last three starts, but she did win on Jul 30th against better at 1 mile. This horse picks up a lot of cash per start. I believe she will add to the lifetime bankroll in this race. MARKET OF STOCKS - It looks like Ccamaque had to know this filly on October 29th when riding her for the initial time. Back atop again today. I like to invest in this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a solid contest within the last 30 days. MS SUEDOO - Mare shipped to this track and won; now goes for a double. It looks like Batista had to be more familiar with this mare on October 24th when riding her for the first time. Back aboard again today. When Batista and Robillard combine forces on equines the return on investment has been fantastic at +63.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 I SAID HEY (ML=3/1), #9 MAMBO KITTEN (ML=9/2), #8 I MATTER (ML=6/1),

I SAID HEY - This favorite ran on Oct 18th and hasn't had a morning drill after that. MAMBO KITTEN - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. I MATTER - This rallier will probably be closing much too late to make an impression in this contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 MISS FORT to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 56

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 PRINCESS AMANDA 5/2
# 5 CHEDOODLE RYLEE 9/2
# 3 AM YISRAEL CHAI 9/2

PRINCESS AMANDA looks like the bet in here. Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group. Have to assume this entrant will run well following the quick major improvement. The Equibase class rating of today's affair is much lower than her last contest. AM YISRAEL CHAI - Strong average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid contender. May see a turn around with blinkers going on for this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2023, 07:09 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #9 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 MATOULA (ML=5/1)
#6 RAISE YOUR GAME (ML=8/1)
#10 FORTUNATA ITALIA (ML=15/1)

MATOULA - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this mare to be long gone. I have to believe Ness is making a good move here. This mare can only benefit from the shorter trip. I like this mare. Has the uppermost earnings per race in this one. RAISE YOUR GAME - Have to make this filly a solid contender; she comes off a good outing on October 25th. This one could be a potential overlay in this field at morning odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Delaware Park but was close at the end. FORTUNATA ITALIA - This horse could be tough today, especially since Trotman rode last out and now should be familiar with this one. Ran last time around the track against a tougher field at Delaware Park. The move to a lower level should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TRUE BLUE PEARL (ML=5/2), #2 CHICA RABIOSA (ML=3/1), #5 ILLUSION OF HOPE (ML=6/1),

TRUE BLUE PEARL - Today's contest is 7 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the best of signs. CHICA RABIOSA - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down regularly. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races lately. Improbable to see her doing it today either. Don't think this steed will make a winning move today. That last speed rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. ILLUSION OF HOPE - Awfully difficult to wager on this racer when she hasn't been showing any signs of life of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 MATOULA to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**ConleyPicks** · 11-12-2023, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $92000 Class Rating: 75

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. FOR HORSES THAT HAVE SOLD OR RNA FOR $50,000 OR LESS AT THEIR MOST RECENT AUCTION.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 LOU ANNA 8/1
# 8 DANCING PRINCESS 4/1
# 4 NAUGHTY MISS 5/1

LOU ANNA looks to be a very good contender and is a quite good value bet given the line at 8/1. With a reliable 53 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Displays solid Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. DANCING PRINCESS - This filly has some longshot angles I like to take a chance on. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 52 avg - of late. NAUGHTY MISS - Displays solid speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Ought to be given a shot based on the respectable speed fig garnered in the last race.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-12-2023, 09:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 BIG BET (ML=8/1)
#2 HERMELINDA'S FANCY (ML=9/5)
#6 ELEGANT BOY (ML=5/2)
#3 REGAL REDWOOD (ML=8/1)

BIG BET - First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in his favor. The jockey and trainer combination have a profitable return on investment when they join forces. With no past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Jauregui has a +74 percent ROI rate with first timers. HERMELINDA'S FANCY - My experience tells me to be on the alert for this entrant in this race ELEGANT BOY - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a strong effort within the last month. This thoroughbred has increased his speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. REGAL REDWOOD - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. I like that recent outing on October 15th at Fresno where he ran second. This animal has increased his speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CLEVER CLOVER (ML=3/1), #4 RAMATHORN (ML=8/1),

CLEVER CLOVER - Showed indications of physical problems in the affair on Oct 29th at Golden Gate Fields. Finished second in his most recent performance with a substandard speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. RAMATHORN - This colt raced very well on October 21st ending up second, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 BIG BET to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	[2,7] with [2,3,6,7] with [2,3,6,7] with [2,3,4,5,6,7] with [2,3,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $72

**ConleyPicks** · 11-12-2023, 09:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 4	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 5 (races 4-8) $.50 Wheel
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $7,900 • Post: 8:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 12, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DIXIE'S DANCE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CROSSTOWN GIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ISLAND WINTER: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff , after two sprint prep races. MOTHERWELL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ANCIENT BROWN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
3	CROSSTOWN GIRL	5/2	6/1
9	DIXIE'S DANCE	15/1	6/1
4	ISLAND WINTER	2/1	7/1
6	MOTHERWELL	8/1	8/1
2	ANCIENT BROWN	9/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	DIXIE'S DANCE	9	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	67	63	65.6	30.2	20.2
4	ISLAND WINTER	4	2/1	Stalker	64	54	59.7	52.1	45.1
2	ANCIENT BROWN	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	53	60.5	54.3	46.3
6	MOTHERWELL	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	54	55.0	50.2	43.7
3	CROSSTOWN GIRL	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	66	63	52.4	53.8	50.3
8	RED ROSEBUSH	8	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	59	36.8	40.6	27.6
7	YESTERDAYSPLAN	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	63	46.6	48.8	38.8
1	BEE WINGS	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	52	43.4	26.6	13.1
5	ESTA CALIENTE	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	55	29.0	41.8	25.3

**ConleyPicks** · 11-12-2023, 09:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 30

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. 2# A DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BIG MASTER 20/1
# 5 IAN P R 7/2
# 1 DREAM LEAPER 5/1

I back BIG MASTER in this race especially at a long price. With one of the top jockeys in terms of returns at the window, don't count this colt out. This colt gets a boost with Adorno in the saddle. IAN P R - This colt could improve with second time Lasix. Looks solid to be on the front end at the first call. DREAM LEAPER - The class fig of today's race is much lower than his last affair.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-12-2023, 09:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:00pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $92,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#4 NAUGHTY MISS (ML=5/1)

NAUGHTY MISS - The most recent speed fig of 69 is the best last race figure in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DANCING PRINCESS (ML=4/1), #1 MO'S VINO MESA (ML=9/2), #7 CHOCTAW GRACE (ML=5/1),

DANCING PRINCESS - This filly hasn't had any strong finishes in short distance races in the last two months. This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last two outings. The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a possibly overvalued equine. MO'S VINO MESA - Not the right 'placement' in this event. CHOCTAW GRACE - Generally I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint races in order to back her. Hard to bet this one after not being up front at 1 1/16 miles and now being spotted in a race of 7 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 NAUGHTY MISS to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 7
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip