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Sunday 11/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Cincinnati Bengals have won four consecutive games straight up and against the spread, but this looks like a potential flat spot following back-to-back wins over Super Bowl contenders in the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills.
While I'm sure they'll want to win this game, especially considering their position in the division, putting a beating on the Texans wouldn't really make any kind of statement, and I think their defense will find it difficult to contain Houston's standout rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud who is coming off a 470 yards, five touchdown outing against Tampa Bay.
The Texans are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Josh Dobbs did a great job of ad libbing coming off the bench in place of an injured Jaren Hall last week, who was replacing an injured Kirk Cousins. He single-handedly led the Vikings to a 31-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons on the road despite not really knowing the playbook. Dobbs finished 20-of-30 passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards and a score.
Now Dobbs gets a full week of practice to learn the playbook and will be even more effective against the New Orleans Saints this week. The Vikings have a ton of momentum right now, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss to Kansas City. They believe they can make the playoffs at this point, and they traded for Dobbs to try and save their season.
What has been most amazing about this 4-0 run is that three of those wins came on the road, and the other was an upset home win over the San Francisco 49ers. This team is legit, yet they aren't getting treated like it as they will be an underdog or PK for a 4th consecutive week here. They are hosting a New Orleans Saints team that is getting too much respect for consecutive victories over the Colts and Bears.
Last week's 24-17 win over the Bears wasn't impressive at all. The Saints were actually outgained by 67 yards by the Bears in that contest. They only won by 7 despite being +5 in turnovers. The Saints once again struggled in the red zone, and Derek Carr is one of the worst red zone QB's in the history of the NFL.
This Saints defense gets a lot of love because of what they did early in the season against a very soft schedule. They have been leaky on defense the last three weeks, allowing 31 points and 330 yards to the Jaguars, 27 points and 371 yards to the Colts and 17 points and 368 yards to the Bears. The Saints give up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing QB's in the NFL this season, and Dobbs is going to have a lot of success running against their man-to-man scheme.
Minnesota averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play. New Orleans averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.1 yards per play on defense to break even. Minnesota has actually been the better team to this point when you factor in strength of schedule. The Saints have played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the NFL, while the Vikings have played the 10th-toughest having already faced the Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers among others.
Dennis Allen is 3-14 ATS following a win as a head coach. Allen is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I give the coaching edge to Kevin O'Connell over Allen in this one as well. He is going to be able to scheme up some things for Dobbs that Allen isn't going to be prepared since there's hardly any tape on him in Minnesota yet. It's not as big of a drop off from Cousins to Dobbs as this line indicates. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS+3 -105 for our Sunday Free Play. Jacksonville and San Francisco are both coming off a bye trending in the wrong direction. The 49ers opened the season 5-0 but have lost three straight games with both offense and defense regressing. They averaged 33.4 ppg during their five-game winning streak but have scored only 17 points in each of their three losses and quarterback Brock Purdy has been bad during this stretch. Receiver Deebo Samuel is expected to return but Trent Williams remained out of practice Wednesday and after missing two games and coming off a bye week, he is trending not to play and that is a big deal. Defensively, San Francisco has slipped to No. 9 in EPA and after allowing more than 16 points once in the first five games, it has allowed 24 ppg over the last three games. The Jaguars started 1-2 with a home loss against Kansas City and also a home loss against Houston despite winning the yardage battle but were -2 in turnovers. Jacksonville has since run off five straight wins with the offense being more efficient but the defense has been the real story. The Jaguars have moved to No. 7 in defensive EPA and No. 3 in defensive DVOA and they have allowed just 16.2 ppg during the winning streak. It was an uneven start for quarterback Trevor Lawrence through the first three games but has posted a passer rating of 100 or better in four of his last five games and is rounding into form similar to how he did last season. Play (248) Jacksonville Jaguars
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