Sunday 11/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Panthers +10.5 1.1% Free

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ASA

#465 ASA FREE PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Dallas is a bully. They beat up on the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams that are superior to them. Take a look at their scores vs inferior teams this season. They beat the Giants twice by 32 & 40 points, beat the Rams by 23 points, beat the Patriots 35 points, and beat the Jets by 20 points. Their lone poor performance vs an inferior team was @ Arizona back in September. When a heavy favorite, Dallas usually rolls big. They are playing at the top of their game right now as well. Since their bye week the Cowboys have played 3 games and they are averaging 38 PPG. Since week 6 this offense is averaging 42.4 yards per drive which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period. They have scored a touchdown on 37.2% of their drives over that span which is 2nd best in the league. On Sunday they are facing a Carolina defense that is fading fast allowing a league-high 2.42 points per drive over their past five games. How are the offensively challenged Panthers going to keep up in this game? We don’t think they can. Carolina has scored 13, 13, and 15 points in their last 3 games vs defenses ranked 15th, 21st, and 26th in total defense. Now they face a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in total defense and 4th in YPP allowed. The Boys also put all kinds of pressure on opposing QB’s ranking 4th in the NFL in sack percentage and facing a rookie QB Young who has already been sacked 29 times this season. Bryce Young is 30th in QBR and the offense has trouble running the ball averaging only 90 YPG on the ground. 5 of their 8 losses have come by double digits this season and 5 of the Cowboys 6 wins have come by at least 20 points. This is a hefty number but we just don’t see how the Carolina offense will be able to keep up in this game. Lay it.

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Titans/Jaguars over 39.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Brandon Lee

7* NFL Dolphins/Raiders Free Pick

PLAY ON: Raiders +14

I will gladly take my chances with the Raiders catching 14 against the Dolphins. I like what I've seen out of the Raiders since they fired McDaniels. He had clearly lost the locker room. I get wins over the Giants and Jets at home aren't anything to brag about, but I just like the fight that this Raiders team has shown. Their defense is better than it gets credit for. They went on the road and held the Chargers to 24 points and the Lions to just 26. Miami has eclipsed 21 points just once in their last 5 games. I expect the Dolphins to win this game, but I'm not convinced of a blowout. Miami was only a 2.5-point road favorite at NE earlier this season. Yes, that was in Week 2, but they were a 7.5-point home favorite in Week 8 at NE. If you go low and say home field is worth 2.5-points, that means they would have been the same 2.5-point road favorite just a few weeks back. Raiders are a better team right now than the Pats and they are getting almost a TD more than NE at Miami? Give me the Raiders +14!

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Browns-125

The Vikings were the luckiest team in the NFL last season going 11-0 in one-score games during the regular season. This season it's the Steelers who are the luckiest team going 6-0 in one-score games.

But that's not the big reason why Pittsburgh has been so fortunate. The Steelers are 6-3 despite being outgained in EVERY game. That's never happened in NFL history.

I see Pittsburgh's luck running out here.

The major storyline all week is Cleveland forced to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson out for the season. Thompson-Robinson may have had the worst performance of any quarterback all year - which is saying a lot - when he made his NFL debut on Oct. 1 throwing three interceptions in a 28-3 loss to the Ravens.

But now Thompson-Robinson has had all week to practice with the first team. Kevin Stefanski has had time to coach him up, which wasn't the case against Baltimore. It's not like Watson was playing well for the Browns either. He's been a major disappointment since signing with Cleveland.

The combination of the Browns being home, having an elite defense and Kenny Pickett being a low-tier QB puts me on Cleveland in this short price range.

Cleveland is 4-1 at home this season with its average winning margin being 18.5 points. Not only do the Browns give up the fewest yards per game, but they've allowed the fewest yards through 10 games in 15 years.

Pickett and his incompetent offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, aren't going to dent this caliber of defense on the road.

The Browns still have an excellent running attack without Nick Chubb. They've rushed for more than 150 yards in four of their past five games vaulting to No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Thompson-Robinson brings one thing to the table - his legs. He's an effective runner out of the pocket.

It doesn't receive nearly the publicity of Watson being out, but the Steelers have a number of key injuries on defense. Out are star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Strong safety Keanu Neal won't play either. He'll be replaced by Trenton Thompson, who has never started in the NFL. Pittsburgh also has multiple linebacker injuries having lost Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander in each of the last two weeks.

[ConleyPicks]

Alex Smart

Free Play: Cardinals/Texans Over 49 -109

Texans Top tier Rookie QB CJ Stroud has really looked good this season , and leads the 2nd best passing offense during this campaign averaging 274.3 passing YPG Houston put up 544 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals last week and in the previous week garnered 496 yards vs the Buccaneers . Im betting Stroud tears up the Arizona secondary this week and keeps on rolling. Meanwhile, with QB Kyler Murray back behind center for the Cards Im expecting some very productive numbers here and score that eclipses this totals offering.

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Georgia State-7

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Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on America de Cali +281 (Soccer)

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Ray Monohan

Free Play: Bucs +13.5

Our free play for Sunday is on the Bucs +13.5. This line has continued to move in our favor. So we're finally locking it in on Saturday night. (While watching the F1 race in Vegas) Tampa Bay (4-5) and San Francisco (6-3) clash on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. The game starts at 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). In their last match, the Bucs had a smooth 20-6 win against the Titans. Meanwhile, the 49ers are currently tied for first place in the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks. Last week, the Niners crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 and they even covered the spread as 3-point favorites. I'm of course NOT saying the Bucs can win this game. I'm saying they CAN do enough to keep this within the number in the 4th qtr. They do a good job of ball protection, so there hopefully won't be many turnovers that make this one get ugly. The 49ers know they have a big game next week vs. the Seahawks in a game that will win them or lose them the NFC West this year, so there will likely be a let down and the foot will come off the gas once this one is in their control. That will allow the Bucs to sneak in and get a late backdoor cover. Tampa Bay are 6-3 ATS in their L9, plus they're 4-1 ATS in their L5 games on the road. 13.5 is too many points on Sunday. GRAB THEM. Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Sunday 5% FREE NFL ATS Play

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Rob Vinciletti

Sunday card has the 100% AFC South Game of the Year along with an NFL Executive Level TIER 1 Side a Top Total and Sunday night Football. There is also NBA, NCAAB and NHL on the card. NFL Comp play below

The NFL Comp play at 4:25 eastern is on the Under 39.5 in the Jets at Bills game. The game fits a powerful 18-2 under system that pertains to Divisional home favorites vs teams like the Jets who are off a loss and rush for less than 5 first downs per game in week 18 or earlier of the season. The Jets rarely put together touch down drives these days. Wideout Garret Wilson is banged up and their defense stays on the field most of the game. The Bills have a new offensive coordinator and will look to score without turning the ball over. I expect the Bills defense will be better here as well. The Jets have gone under in 4 straight on the division road and the last 4 in the 2nd of back to back road games. The last 4 in the series have been played Under and that is what we will recommend here today. On Sunday the AFC South Game of the year and a Late TIER 1 headlines in the NFL along with the Sunday night play and hoops and Hockey. Jump on now as Rob Ends the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go Under Jets vs Bills. Rob V-

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Blackhawks+163

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Vikings/Broncos UNDER 42.5

The Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos have both turned their seasons around. The Vikings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Broncos are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. The biggest reasons for both of their turnarounds is defense, not offense.

The Vikings have allowed 19 points or fewer in four of their last five games overall. The Broncos are allowing just 16.8 points per game in their last four games overall despite facing the Chiefs twice and the Bills. They have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing like the defense that they were a year ago, which was one of the best units in the league.

Denver is relying on its running game and a dink and dunk passing game with Russell Wilson also using his legs to move the chains. They play a methodical tempo to try and grind out wins because their offense just isn't that explosive. The key to their success is a ball control offense, not turning it over and putting the game in the hands of their defense. It worked perfectly to upset both the Chiefs and Bills in recent weeks.

Josh Dobbs is getting a lot of love for coming off the bench to beat the Falcons two weeks ago and also backing it up with with a home win over the New Orleans Saints last week. Now there's a game and a half worth of film on Dobbs with the Vikings, and the Broncos will come up with the proper game plan to slow him down.

The coverage the Broncos used to stymie the Chiefs twice and the Bills is the coverage they will use to stop Dobbs and the Vikings. They double-teamed Travis Kelce to try and take away Patrick Mahomes' favorite weapon, while also spying Mahomes to not let him run whenever he wanted to. The Broncos will double-team TJ Hockenson to take away their best weapon, while also spying Dobbs to not let him used his best attribute, which is his legs.

Dobbs has had success in dome games in Arizona, Atlanta and now Minnesota this season but now he is going to be outdoors on grass. Three of his four road starts while at Arizona were on grass and they scored 16 points at Washington, 16 at San Francisco, 10 at Seattle and then 9 at the Rams.

The Broncos have rushed for at least 115 yards in five consecutive games while throwing for fewer than 200 yards in five consecutive games. So if you can stop the running game, you can stop the Broncos. The Vikings rank 10th in the NFL allowing just 98.8 rushing yards per game and 5th in the NFL at 3.7 yards per carry. They have allowed 83 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their 10 games this season.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall. The UNDER is 5-2 in Vikings last seven games overall. Denver is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13. The UNDER is 28-15 in Broncos last 43 games overall. Finally, primetime UNDERS are 30-7 this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday night