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Saturday 11/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Wolverines rank 1st nationally allowing nine points per game.
- The Buckeyes rank 2nd nationally allowing just over nine points per game.
- The under is 4-1 in the Wolverines last five home games.
Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.
Both teams are coming off blowout wins, but I like the LSU Tigers to get the win and cover as a big favorite over the Texas A&M Aggies this Saturday.
The Aggies defeated Abilene-Christian 38-10 last week but did not cover the 40-point spread in their first game under interim coach Elijah Robertson.
LSU routed Georgia State 56-14 last time out and the Tigers have scored 48 points or more in five of their last six games, the lone exception being a 42-28 loss to Alabama. Well, Texas A&M is not Alabama, and I don't see this Aggies defense slow down LSU's QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jayden Daniels who is playing exceptionally well right now.
This is also LSU's first chance to avenge a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M on Nov 26 last year, a loss that cost them a spot in the SEC championship game.
The Cardinals have an opportunity to be an 11-1 Power Five conference champion, but it feels like they aren't getting the fan fare that teams like Texas, Alabama and Oregon are getting. They host Kentucky here in Rivalry Week, and Kentucky has won four straight in this series. The Wildcats have lost five of their last six overall, and their offense has really struggled. Devin Leary has completed less than 50 percent of his passes on the road this season. Louisville ranks 2nd in ACC in total defense, and they have allowed just 18 points per game.
Kentucky vs Louisville 5-Unit best bet on Kentucky plus the points and sprinkle the money line.
Louisville is 8-20 ATS in home games with a total less than 50 points.
From my predictive models, Kentucky is projected to score 28 or more points and have no more than a single turnover. In past road games in this role Kentucky is 5-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Louisville is 5-14 ATS for 26% when allowing 28 or more points and have the same or more turnovers.
I'm backing Michigan as a mere 3-point home favorite against Ohio State. I just don't think this is the Buckeyes team to take down the Wolverines. This is the worst Buckeyes offense of the Ryan Day era and it's not even close. Ohio State is averaging 33.6 ppg and 430 ypg. Pretty good numbers, but the Buckeyes haven't averaged fewer than 41.0 ppg and 491 ypg since Day took over. I don't see Ohio State's ground game being good enough for them to sustain drives against this elite Michigan defense. Wolverines have a massive edge at the most important position on the field with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. I don't trust Kyle McCord at all in this spot. Not in Ann Arbor. Buckeyes numbers are even worse on the road, where they average 28.0 ppg and just 393 ypg. Give me Michigan -3!
Classless Brian Kelly doesn't need an excuse to run up a score like he did in last week's, 56-14, LSU win against Georgia State. The Tigers not only have revenge for Texas A&M pulling a 38-23 upset as a 10-point home 'dog last season, but also they want to showcase Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy.
Daniels has the numbers. He leads the nation in total offense at 417.4 yards a game while accounting for 46 touchdowns. LSU is No. 1 in the country in scoring at 46.8 points per game and in total yards averaging 562.3.
Texas A&M is a team in transition. This will be the Aggies' second game under interim coach Elijah Robertson following the firing of Jimbo Fisher. The Aggies defeated Abilene Christian, 38-10, in Robertson's first game last Saturday. This is quite the step up.
I don't see the Aggies having the firepower to hang in with third-string quarterback Jaylen Henderson making his first road start.
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